From 68a7feb6e6339da58d8cece1d196402dd8f5d9a4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 13:32:53 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] chore: Deprecate outdated or inaccessible platforms, but keep the code --- README.md | 1 + data/frontpage.json | 108989 ++++++++------- specification.json | 46 + src/index.js | 27 +- .../{ => deprecated}/astralcodexten-fetch.js | 0 .../{ => deprecated}/coupcast-fetch.js | 4 +- .../{ => deprecated}/csetforetell-fetch.js | 0 .../{ => deprecated}/elicit-fetch.js | 0 .../{ => deprecated}/estimize-fetch.js | 0 .../{ => deprecated}/hypermind-fetch.js | 0 src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/omen-fetch.js | 6 +- src/platforms/infer-fetch.js | 254 + src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js | 2 +- src/utils/doEverything.js | 26 +- src/utils/mergeEverything.js | 2 +- src/utils/platforms.js | 47 + src/utils/stars.js | 4 +- 17 files changed, 55011 insertions(+), 54397 deletions(-) create mode 100644 specification.json rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/astralcodexten-fetch.js (100%) rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/coupcast-fetch.js (99%) rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/csetforetell-fetch.js (100%) rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/elicit-fetch.js (100%) rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/estimize-fetch.js (100%) rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/hypermind-fetch.js (100%) rename src/platforms/{ => deprecated}/omen-fetch.js (90%) create mode 100644 src/platforms/infer-fetch.js create mode 100644 src/utils/platforms.js diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index fbf37d4..cb4d95b 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ The following variables are currently needed to run the `master` branch: - `CSETFORETELL_COOKIE` - `GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE` - `HYPERMINDCOOKIE` +- `SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT` - `ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY`, a string of 32 alphanumeric characters, like `6ofolyptm956j9uuev3q4v81vjbqrkp2` (not an actual key) They can either be stored as process variables (e.g., something that can be accessed as `process.env.`), or as text in `src/input/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/input/privatekeys_example.json`. diff --git a/data/frontpage.json b/data/frontpage.json index 9a01abe..e47e7a8 100644 --- a/data/frontpage.json +++ b/data/frontpage.json @@ -1,39 +1,269 @@ [ { - "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8370/us-reaction-on-natos-offensive-detonation/", + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7580/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mike Dunleavy", + "probability": 0.7821782178217822, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill Walker", + "probability": 0.15841584158415842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Les Gara", + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Natasha Von Imhof", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Begich", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:36.268Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13573 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike Dunleavy, Bill Walker, Les Gara, Natasha Von Imhof, Mark Begich" + }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nSee also\n---[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) \nIf a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:20.189Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:01.122Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 5582, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-10-12T22:19:37Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Mozambique in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Mozambique is Nyussi, who has been in power for 6.2 years. Mozambique has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0093092", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9906908, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Mozambique", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nyussi", + "month_risk": "0.0021676", + "annual_risk": "0.0093092", + "risk_change_percent": "0.17", + "regime_years": "46", + "leader_years": "6.166667", + "country_code": "MOZ", + "country_abb": "MZM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \nThe project aims to:\n--- \nMomentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n--- \nProduce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\nBy the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).\n", + "description": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \nIf there is no positive confirmation by 31 December 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous. \nWill the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:53.894Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will gain an overall majority of parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "No Overall Majority", + "probability": 0.5076607605867187, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative Majority", + "probability": 0.2898816516973438, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour Majority", + "probability": 0.20001833967116722, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrat majority", + "probability": 0.0024392480447703317, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 124813.4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "No Overall Majority, Conservative Majority, Labour Majority, Liberal Democrat majority" + }, + { + "title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:40.688Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-02-23T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:43:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:05.046Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 543, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:02.100Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -46,86 +276,333 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:17.607Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:49.289Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 282, + "numforecasts": 332, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-10-01T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-31T20:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Nepal in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Nepal is Oli, who has been in power for 3.1 years. Nepal has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 15 years", + "title": "Biden picks Romney as VP in 2022 if Harris resigns", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A267", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0185884", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9814116, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:35.118Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 125754 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Turkmenistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Turkmenistan is Berdymukhammedov, who has been in power for 14.3 years. Turkmenistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0061164", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9938836, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Nepal", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "country_name": "Turkmenistan", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Oli", - "month_risk": "0.0028251", - "annual_risk": "0.0185884", - "risk_change_percent": "0.23", - "regime_years": "15", - "leader_years": "3.083333", - "country_code": "NPL", - "country_abb": "NEP" + "leader_name": "Berdymukhammedov", + "month_risk": "0.0003737", + "annual_risk": "0.0061164", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "14.25", + "country_code": "TKM", + "country_abb": "TKM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/", + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7599/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Wes Moore", + "probability": 0.4077669902912621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Peter Franchot", + "probability": 0.30097087378640774, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rushern Baker", + "probability": 0.0970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Perez", + "probability": 0.0970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John King Jr.", + "probability": 0.058252427184466014, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Gansler", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ashwani Jain", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Rosenbaum", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Laura Neuman", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:14.106Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 21645 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Wes Moore, Peter Franchot, Rushern Baker, Tom Perez, John King Jr., Doug Gansler, Ashwani Jain, Mike Rosenbaum, Laura Neuman" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jody Hice", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brad Raffensperger", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Belle Isle", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:06.055Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 28078 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n", + "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:46:00.991Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:04.145Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 217, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.\nWill there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs between the time this question is posted and December 31, 2023:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:03.736Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 254, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-04T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Belgium in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Belgium is Alexander De Croo, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Belgium has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 100 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0012717", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9987283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Belgium", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Alexander De Croo", + "month_risk": "0.000107", + "annual_risk": "0.0012717", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "100", + "leader_years": "0.4166667", + "country_code": "BEL", + "country_abb": "BEL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in October 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2216-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-inflation-for-the-eurozone-in-october-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After years of failing to reach the European Central Bank's (ECB's) inflation target of 2%, estimated November 2021 inflation figures for in the eurozone reached an all-time high in the 25 years since the data have been compiled, an annual rate of change of 4.9% ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/inflation-euro-zone-november-2021.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-chief-declines-to-say-if-inflation-will-hit-target-next-year/), [ECB](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" ([Eurostat](https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en)). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for October 2021 (2021M10) was 4.1%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 1.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5.0% or more", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:47.719Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 196, + "numforecasters": 91, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive, More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive, More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more" + }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Argentina in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", @@ -143,7 +620,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -164,10 +641,570 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/", + "title": "Which of these 13 Cabinet members will leave first?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7520/Which-of-these-13-Cabinet-members-will-leave-first", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the Cabinet or Cabinet-level position that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nIn the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No.\nAt 11:59 p.m. (ET) 14 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: N/A\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Xavier Becerra", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alejandro Mayorkas", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Janet Yellen", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marty Walsh", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lloyd Austin", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Miguel Cardona", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Antony Blinken", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Merrick Garland", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deb Haaland", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Vilsack", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gina Raimondo", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marcia Fudge", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:11.546Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 77039 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Becerra, Alejandro Mayorkas, Janet Yellen, Pete Buttigieg, Marty Walsh, Lloyd Austin, Miguel Cardona, Antony Blinken, Merrick Garland, Deb Haaland, Tom Vilsack, Gina Raimondo, Marcia Fudge" + }, + { + "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n", + "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\". This question asks if there will be conflict causing 100 deaths between the two nations by the end of 2025.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2026:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:34.571Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 167, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.\n[From Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election):\nThe next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.\nAll 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.\nThe incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.\nWill the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?\nThis question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.\n\"The next federal election\" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.\nNormally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:04.294Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 114, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nNationalization of corporations that are working on AGI might happen due to the government perceiving the risks and power imbalance associated with a private organization with AGI technology to be unacceptable. \nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a nationalized organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:10.024Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 51, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:57.580Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 176, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-16T10:05:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:39.698Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 204, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Iran in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Iran is Rouhani, who has been in power for 7.6 years. Iran has a party regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0046657", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9953343, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Iran", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Rouhani", + "month_risk": "0.0001994", + "annual_risk": "0.0046657", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "7.583333", + "country_code": "IRN", + "country_abb": "IRN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat([https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1…](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/)). China could be one of its successors.\nAs [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/blog/china-is-making-moves-on-cultivated-meat/) states:\n\"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein.\"\nPeople in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if China approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:09.590Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8536/russia-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that Russia has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:17.530Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Nevada?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-nevada", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democrat", + "probability": "0.3632076990540690471836587550773347", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": "0.6367923009459309528163412449226653", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "14", + "liquidity": "300.00", + "tradevolume": "1094.67", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "How many votes to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB director by May 6?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7725/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-director-by-May-6", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young (the \"Nominee\") to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"53 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"70 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 05/06/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "53 or fewer", + "probability": 0.17857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54 or 55", + "probability": 0.11607142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56 or 57", + "probability": 0.16964285714285712, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "58 or 59", + "probability": 0.17857142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "60 or 61", + "probability": 0.11607142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "62 or 63", + "probability": 0.08035714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "64 or 65", + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "66 or 67", + "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "68 or 69", + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "70 or more", + "probability": 0.0625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:40.678Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 3774 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "53 or fewer, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or 67, 68 or 69, 70 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.8316831683168316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.16831683168316833, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:21.989Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1031756 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will China ban export of rice, wheat, or maize by April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8850/chinese-export-ban-of-rice-wheat-or-maize/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill China ban exports of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Chinese officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside China, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of Chinese Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:46.271Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7816/prototype-of-tesla-bot-by-the-end-of-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\nTesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\nMusk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\nThe robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/).\nWill Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if both of these criteria are fulfilled:\n1-- \nBefore 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:\n* A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.\n* The official website of Tesla, Inc.\n* A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.\n* Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.\n* A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.\n2-- \nThe revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material. \nFor the purpose of this question \"a prototype of a humanoid robot\" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be \"outside\" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).\nA written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:03.547Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8533/xi-jinping-leading-china-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.\nWill Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if either:\n---Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve negative if: \n---Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n---China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:01.845Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 105, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:18.380Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1139, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n--- \n[WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n--- \n[The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)\nWill Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?\nA clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:\n---A bombing attack on the dam \n---Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam \nSuccess of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -180,24 +1217,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:21:18.066Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:13.646Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, + "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-08-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", + "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", + "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -210,24 +1247,332 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:27:00.747Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:08.631Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T20:54:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/", + "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a for-profit corporation.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_%28company%29) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:19.669Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US ban export of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8860/us-export-ban-on-ricewheatmaizesoybeans-by-42023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill the US ban exports of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside the US, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of US Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:37.898Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\nWill USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:15.262Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 51, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7382/non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))\nThe question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nWill the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?\nWe will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)) for resolution.\nThis question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.\nThis question resolves negatively if otherwise.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:32.255Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 121, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:31.614Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 208062 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Panama in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Panama is Laurentino Cortizo, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Panama has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.004619", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995381, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Panama", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Laurentino Cortizo", + "month_risk": "0.000387", + "annual_risk": "0.004619", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "1.666667", + "country_code": "PAN", + "country_abb": "PAN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected to be the next President of Brazil as a result of the 2022 Brazilian General Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180434883", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2022. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of Brazil on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of the Brazil, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.28263215853645746, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva", + "probability": 0.6106250338750624, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Fernando Haddad", + "probability": 0.007609327345212318, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Flávio Dino", + "probability": 0.0009892125548776013, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ciro Gomes", + "probability": 0.01318950073170135, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Guilherme Boulos", + "probability": 0.0021504620758208723, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "João Doria", + "probability": 0.014131607926822875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "João Amoêdo", + "probability": 0.0009892125548776013, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marina Silva", + "probability": 0.0015218654690424634, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sergio Moro", + "probability": 0.05995227605318795, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luciano Huck", + "probability": 0.001498806901329699, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eduardo Leite", + "probability": 0.004710535975607625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 81482.36 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Fernando Haddad, Flávio Dino, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, João Doria, João Amoêdo, Marina Silva, Sergio Moro, Luciano Huck, Eduardo Leite" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-1", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Ketanji Brown Jackson is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 62, + "yes_ask": 63, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 13236 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Nifty Gateway airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nifty-gateway-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Nifty Gateway will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2805194420431953370698586090209223", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7194805579568046629301413909790777", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "31", + "liquidity": "600.00", + "tradevolume": "1630.57", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -240,19 +1585,5660 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:08.544Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:26.548Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 140, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Beto O'Rourke", + "probability": 0.9607843137254901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joaquin Castro", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Julián Castro", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matthew McConaughey", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wendy Davis", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:40.222Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 395070 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Beto O'Rourke, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Matthew McConaughey, Wendy Davis" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:33.661Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1635, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Antigua and Barbuda in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Antigua and Barbuda is Browne, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Antigua and Barbuda has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 39 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0040494", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9959506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Antigua and Barbuda", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Browne", + "month_risk": "0.0003409", + "annual_risk": "0.0040494", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "39", + "leader_years": "6.75", + "country_code": "ATG", + "country_abb": "AAB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Palau in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Palau is Surangel Whipps Jr., who has been in power for 0.2 years. Palau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 40 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.008727", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.991273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Palau", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Surangel Whipps Jr.", + "month_risk": "0.0023637", + "annual_risk": "0.008727", + "risk_change_percent": "0.04", + "regime_years": "40", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "PLW", + "country_abb": "PAL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:20.584Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 75, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Sudan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Sudan is Abdelrahman Burhan, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Sudan has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 2 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0639387", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9360613, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Sudan", + "regime_type": "Civilian Provisional", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Abdelrahman Burhan", + "month_risk": "0.0065983", + "annual_risk": "0.0639387", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.1", + "regime_years": "2", + "leader_years": "1.916667", + "country_code": "SDN", + "country_abb": "SUD" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Tanzania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Tanzania is Magufuli, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Tanzania has a party regime type which has lasted for 57 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0065871", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9934129, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Tanzania", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Magufuli", + "month_risk": "0.000292", + "annual_risk": "0.0065871", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "57", + "leader_years": "5.333333", + "country_code": "TZA", + "country_abb": "TAZ" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.8446601941747572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Crist", + "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Fried", + "probability": 0.058252427184466014, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Val Demings", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Annette Taddeo", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:28.116Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 617488 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Annette Taddeo" + }, + { + "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2158-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-france", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/a-turbulent-political-year-is-in-store-for-france), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210713-france-to-hold-2022-presidential-election-rounds-on-april-10-and-24)). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-hits-the-campaign-trail/), [Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "National Rally (Rassemblement National)", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Republicans (Les Républicains)", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "None of the above", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:36.472Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 425, + "numforecasters": 195, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "National Rally (Rassemblement National), The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!), The Republicans (Les Républicains), Unbowed France (La France Insoumise), None of the above" + }, + { + "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:08.874Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Baby Keem win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-3", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Baby Keem has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 20758 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9189/liverpool-to-win-the-league-this-year/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Liverpool]() are an association football team in the English [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League), the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. \nAs of the January 5, 2022 [League Table](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. [FiveThiryEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league.\nWill Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?\nThis question will resolve positively if Liverpool are declared winners of the 2021-2022 Premier League. If any other team wins the season, this question will resolve negatively.\nIn the case that the season is cancelled, or for any reason there is no official winner of the season, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:57.653Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-07T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-03T23:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Australia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Australia is Morrison, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Australia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 119 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0010002", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9989998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Australia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Morrison", + "month_risk": "0.0000827", + "annual_risk": "0.0010002", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "119", + "leader_years": "2.583333", + "country_code": "AUS", + "country_abb": "AUL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:01.048Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 118, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:56.770Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 105, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge-completed-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?\nPositive resolution requires an announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished by 2050-01-01.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:38.542Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 340, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:45:08Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:01.212Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 415, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:31.793Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:37.545Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 61, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.\nWill Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Turkish government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:43.314Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will **Joe Biden's approval rating** be greater than 40% on February 04, 2022? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-020", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than 40% at 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 97, + "yes_ask": 99, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 8092 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **Senate pass a reconciliation bill** by July 4, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECNC-008", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Congress.gov contains documentation of a bill that “passed Senate” between Issuance and July 04, 2022 and contains reconciliation instructions, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see RECNC in the Rulebook for such details.\n\nSuch bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…\"\n\nThis market will close the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of the event or July 4, 2022 at 11:59 PM. It will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM following the release of data for July 4, 2022, or 10:00 AM one week after July 4, 2022. . The resolution source is: Bills that have passed the Senate between Issuance and July 04, 2022, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 32, + "yes_ask": 35, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 12412 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will the Senate next confirm as Federal Reserve vice chair of Supervision?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7564/Who-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Federal-Reserve-vice-chair-of-Supervision", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on October 27, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", + "probability": 0.8333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Raphael Bostic", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lael Brainard", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kathryn Judge", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "William Spriggs", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lisa Cook", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Randal Quarles", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roger Ferguson", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Seth Carpenter", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Hsu", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cecilia Rouse", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Cordray", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nellie Liang", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Karen Dynan", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valerie Wilson", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:06.921Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 525174 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, Lael Brainard, Kathryn Judge, William Spriggs, Lisa Cook, Randal Quarles, Roger Ferguson, Seth Carpenter, Michael Hsu, Cecilia Rouse, Richard Cordray, Nellie Liang, Karen Dynan, Valerie Wilson" + }, + { + "title": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2221-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 ([Tesla](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPKBV_TSLA_Q3_2021_Quarterly_Update_SI1AKE.pdf)). \nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 700,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "1,900,000 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:40.792Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 144, + "numforecasters": 69, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive, More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000, Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive, More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000, 1,900,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Ghana in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Ghana is Akufo-Addo, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Ghana has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0055822", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9944178, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Ghana", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Akufo-Addo", + "month_risk": "0.0004081", + "annual_risk": "0.0055822", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "4.166667", + "country_code": "GHA", + "country_abb": "GHA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. \n---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. \n---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). \n---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). \n---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.\nWill the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:35.237Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 163, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:39.953Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 130, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Cuba in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Cuba is Raul Castro, who has been in power for 13.1 years. Cuba has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 62 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0120676", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9879324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Cuba", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Raul Castro", + "month_risk": "0.0007011", + "annual_risk": "0.0120676", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "62", + "leader_years": "13.08333", + "country_code": "CUB", + "country_abb": "CUB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was inadvertent, as defined above. If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:19.225Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Georgia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Georgia is Gakharia, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Georgia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 2 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0053381", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9946619, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Georgia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Gakharia", + "month_risk": "0.0004326", + "annual_risk": "0.0053381", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "2", + "leader_years": "1.5", + "country_code": "GEO", + "country_abb": "GRG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:15.286Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 163, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021 will investigators in the US Congress get access to any of Donald Trump's tax returns?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": " ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Morocco in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Morocco is Muhammad VI, who has been in power for 21.7 years. Morocco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 65 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0046933", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9953067, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Morocco", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Muhammad VI", + "month_risk": "0.0003732", + "annual_risk": "0.0046933", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "65", + "leader_years": "21.66667", + "country_code": "MAR", + "country_abb": "MOR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, \"[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\"\nAs an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, \"forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth\" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).\nEvasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.\nSpace debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space. \nWill there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (AP, New York Times, etc.) report that space debris has killed at least one human by January 1, 2025. \nDirect death in space (human-occupied spacecraft) will count towards positive resolution. Direct death on earth from re-entering debris (e.g. hitting someone on the head) will not count. If an astronaut dies on earth from space-debris injuries sustained in space, the question will resolve positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:44.646Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 48, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:52:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Foundation airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-foundation-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Foundation will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.303877331808053718543494107249686", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.696122668191946281456505892750314", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "61", + "liquidity": "2100.00", + "tradevolume": "3409.85", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.", + "probability": 0.8474962690751916, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.", + "probability": 0.07757191512692231, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.", + "probability": 0.06511457976886398, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.", + "probability": 0.009817236029022127, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome., The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people., The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment., The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based." + }, + { + "title": "Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The laws surrounding cryptocurrencies are likely to have many parts and be complicated. This question is targeted toward the legality of simple possession of Bitcoin specifically.\nWill any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?\nWill anyone in the United States be convicted, in any U.S. court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1st 2060?\n--- \nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin. If they bought drugs on the darkweb using Bitcoin and were just charged for buying drugs, that would be irrelevant to this question.\n--- \nSimilarly, if someone doesn't report their Bitcoin capital gains to the IRS and then is convicted for income tax evasion, that does not count.\n--- \nThis question only resolves positively if the coins themselves are made illegal. For example, convictions for owning stolen Bitcoin or Bitcoin used in criminal transactions do not count towards positive resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:32.333Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 100, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2056-07-19T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 08/03/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act. \nThe legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 08/03/2021 6:33 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: As used in the Rules, Class One means Schedule I.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:13.380Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 196141 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice by April 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7719/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-by-April-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on January 27, 2022, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. \nConfirmation of an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:17.685Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 33260 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8994/jaedon-whyte-on-us-imo-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier math competition for high school competitions. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times. Recently, the teams have been largely Asian American. As of yet no Black American has represented the USA at the IMO.\nJaedon Whyte [won the USA Mathematical Olympiad in 2021](https://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/pdf/AMC/usamo/2021/2021%20USAMO%20Winners.pdf) and [got a silver medal at the Romanian Masters in Mathematics](https://rmms.lbi.ro/rmm2021/index.php?id=results_math). He will graduate from [Archimedean Upper Conservatory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedean_Upper_Conservatory), a public charter high school, [in 2022.](https://ideamath.education/landing/staff)\nWill Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if by the resolve date if Jaedon Whyte qualifies for the USA IMO team, as reported by [the official IMO website.](http://imo-official.org/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:00.860Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:40.127Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 59, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bolivia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Bolivia is Arce, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Bolivia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 0 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0088468", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9911532, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Bolivia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Arce", + "month_risk": "0.0008278", + "annual_risk": "0.0088468", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "0", + "leader_years": "0.3333333", + "country_code": "BOL", + "country_abb": "BOL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2025", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A263", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in South Africa in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of South Africa is Ramaphosa, who has been in power for 3.1 years. South Africa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 27 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0049955", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "South Africa", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ramaphosa", + "month_risk": "0.0003977", + "annual_risk": "0.0049955", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "27", + "leader_years": "3.083333", + "country_code": "ZAF", + "country_abb": "SAF" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Oman in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Oman is Haitham ibn Tariq, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Oman has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 279 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.00368", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99632, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Oman", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Haitham ibn Tariq", + "month_risk": "0.0002978", + "annual_risk": "0.00368", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "279", + "leader_years": "1.166667", + "country_code": "OMN", + "country_abb": "OMA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Universe end?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:34.706Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 609, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/) \n---[Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\nBefore 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the 2020 figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures). A copy of this data is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8K0IhRh_1ZVvy4mFxyhEJ7GX7FyrDqxRNkeRcLqFIg/edit?usp=sharing).\nIn the case of political or territorial changes of any nation on the list, the successor country will be identified as having the same political capitol as the parent country.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:11.757Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", + "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A member of SPD", + "probability": 0.941747572815534, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A member of the Green party", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Marcus Söder (CSU), Armin Laschet (CDU), Another member of CDU/CSU, A member of SPD, A member of the Green party, Someone else" + }, + { + "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:17.411Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 229, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's March meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-005", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's March meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their March 16, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 90, + "yes_ask": 92, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 106230 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be impeached by June 30, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7485/Will-Joe-Biden-be-impeached-by-June-30,-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives, by simple majority, votes to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Joe Biden prior to either the End Date listed below or the end of President Biden's Presidency, whichever occurs first. \nNeither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2023 11:59 AM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:42.859Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 32118 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/247/pandemic-series-a-major-naturally-originated-pandemic-by-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Other questions in [this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--pandemics) have asked separately about influenza and H5N1, and the emergence of new mosquito-borne, airborne, and blood-borne diseases. \nThose questions all concern disease that originate naturally, i.e. without any accidental or deliberate human modification and release (which is the subject of separate questions). Here we ask the general question: \nWill there be \"naturally spawned\" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025? \nInfection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source; if not entirely clear, we will assume \"naturally spawned\" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2026.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:12.560Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 384, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T13:20:20Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-18T11:36:44.592000Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Vietnam in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Vietnam is Phu Trong, who has been in power for 10.2 years. Vietnam has a party regime type which has lasted for 71 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0071124", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9928876, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Vietnam", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Phu Trong", + "month_risk": "0.0002707", + "annual_risk": "0.0071124", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "71", + "leader_years": "10.16667", + "country_code": "VNM", + "country_abb": "DRV" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/943-will-russia-invade-ukraine-by-december-31-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. Metaculus has a now-closed question on the likelihood Russia annexes Ukraine by 2022.Context. A U.S. intelligence report claims Russia has developed plans to invade Ukraine with 175,000 troops as soon as early next year. Ukraine officials estimate that more than 90,000 Russian troops have already amassed at the border, with U.S. intelligence putting the number at 70,000. During a meeting between President Biden and President Putin on December 7, 2021, Putin reportedly demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward toward Russia's borders, guarantees Biden declined to provide. Biden stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, the United States and its allies would respond with \"strong economic measures.\" Last month, Russian ambassadors to the United Nations stated that Russia “never planned, never did, and is never going to [invade Ukraine] unless we’re provoked by Ukraine, or by somebody else.”Resolution details. For purposes of this question, an \"invasion\" requires at least 50,000 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering Ukraine territory. Ukraine territory includes both the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and the rest of the country, but excludes Crimea. An unsuccessful or repelled invasion counts, provided more than 50,000 Russian troops enter Ukraine territory.***This question was proposed by PabloAMC. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:25.394Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 325, + "numforecasters": 140, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8600/oral-semaglutide-approval-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.\nWill oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve an orally-administered form of Semaglutide (AKA Rybelsus) for the purpose of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:06.257Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_%28Top_100%29.))\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:48.187Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 297, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:25.715Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 165 million?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2232-when-will-the-number-of-fully-vaccinated-people-with-a-booster-dose-for-covid-19-in-the-us-reach-or-exceed-165-million", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "There's a renewed push in the US to get COVID-19 vaccine booster shots in as many vaccinated people as possible ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/us-covid-cases-booster-shots-on-the-rise-as-country-nears-christmas.html)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, click the \"Booster Doses***\" title on the table). For historical data, visit https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc, click \"Export,\" and select your file preference. See \"US\" for \"Location,\" and booster doses are labeled \"Additional_Doses\" in the file. As of the launch of this question, the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 41,933,410. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 15 February 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 July 2022", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:19.108Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasters": 93, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 15 February 2022, Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022, Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022, Not before 1 July 2022" + }, + { + "title": "By 31 December 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9582/will-us-troops-move-into-ukraine-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On 25 January 2022, US President Joe Biden [said](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis/biden-warns-putin-with-sanctions-as-west-steps-up-ukraine-defenses-idUKKBN2K00GT), \"There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine.\" As of January 24, 2022, [TIME reported](https://time.com/6141675/us-troops-alert-ukraine/) that 200 US troops were in the country, as members of the Florida National Guard are training Ukrainian forces. According to TIME's report:\nPentagon spokesman John Kirby said up to 8,500 U.S. service members were put on heightened alert for deployment to bolster NATO allies’ eastern defenses should Russia invade. The forces would not be sent to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, nor take part in any combat roles, Kirby said, but rather serve as reinforcements in places like Poland or Romania to reassure U.S. allies and deter Russian aggression.\nBefore December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?\nThis question will resolve positively if American troops have been moved into Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"moving into Ukraine\" requires a total of at least 10,000 US troops, wearing US military insignia and under the American banner, being in the territory of Ukraine at a given moment.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:58.871Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2023-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:50.763Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 98, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:54:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9522/russia-invades-or-annexes-belarus-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/) [closed] \n[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire.\nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's [Democracy Index rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#By_country) is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/belarus/freedom-net/2021), and as \"moderately free\" in the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2021/countries/2021_IndexofEconomicFreedom-Belarus.pdf).\nBefore January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:37.621Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of the registered vote will the named candidate receive in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187257276", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "If the named candidate is not on the ballot then this market will be void. This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and customers are solely responsible for their positions. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "14.99 percent or lower", + "probability": 0.25128380641202896, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "15.00-19.99 percent", + "probability": 0.5025676128240579, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20.00-24.99 percent", + "probability": 0.1783304432601496, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "25.00-29.99 percent", + "probability": 0.06142493045627375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30.00-34.99 percent", + "probability": 0.00526499403910918, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "35.00-39.99 percent", + "probability": 0.0011282130083805385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "volume": 6883.52 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "14.99 percent or lower, 15.00-19.99 percent, 20.00-24.99 percent, 25.00-29.99 percent, 30.00-34.99 percent, 35.00-39.99 percent" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:51.980Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 101130 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected to be the Republican Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163916", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Republican National Convention. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Republican Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Donald Trump", + "probability": 0.4235056356039525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.18755249576746466, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Haley", + "probability": 0.07502099830698586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pence", + "probability": 0.06776090169663239, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.038899776899918595, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.032821686759306315, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Cruz", + "probability": 0.02763931516573163, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Josh Hawley", + "probability": 0.013128674703722526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.02188112450620421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kristi Noem", + "probability": 0.02100587952595604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tim Scott", + "probability": 0.0012654144292744605, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ivanka Trump", + "probability": 0.012356399721150612, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Sasse", + "probability": 0.0014193161841862191, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.0019096254114505493, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marco Rubio", + "probability": 0.007502099830698586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.00583496653498779, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.0023870317643131865, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Crenshaw", + "probability": 0.0013294860459465848, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paul Ryan", + "probability": 0.00583496653498779, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kanye West", + "probability": 0.0017504899604963368, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Carson", + "probability": 0.00583496653498779, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Christie", + "probability": 0.007001959841985347, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", + "probability": 0.0010717285472426554, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Cheney", + "probability": 0.0023870317643131865, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greg Abbott", + "probability": 0.0031827090190842487, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Kasich", + "probability": 0.0013294860459465848, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Evan McMullin", + "probability": 0.0011055726066292652, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Condoleezza Rice", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lisa Murkowski", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rand Paul", + "probability": 0.002625734940744505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Kushner", + "probability": 0.0011055726066292652, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeb Bush", + "probability": 0.0021434570944853107, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joni Ernst", + "probability": 0.0010940562253102105, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Shapiro", + "probability": 0.0011801055913458452, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Gaetz", + "probability": 0.0011541692047228594, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Brady", + "probability": 0.002019796108265004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Jordan", + "probability": 0.0010609030063614161, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Devin Nunes", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lindsay Graham", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bobby Jindal", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "James Mattis", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Perry", + "probability": 0.0010717285472426554, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rob Portman", + "probability": 0.0011173340173380873, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Orrin Hatch", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Collins", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Bannon", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitch McConnell", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Trump", + "probability": 0.0011541692047228594, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Winsome Sears", + "probability": 0.001050293976297802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 177621.67 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Tim Scott, Ivanka Trump, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Mitt Romney, Dan Crenshaw, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, John Kasich, Evan McMullin, Condoleezza Rice, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Jared Kushner, Jeb Bush, Joni Ernst, Ben Shapiro, Matt Gaetz, Tom Brady, Jim Jordan, Devin Nunes, Lindsay Graham, Bobby Jindal, James Mattis, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Orrin Hatch, Susan Collins, Steve Bannon, Mitch McConnell, Eric Trump, Winsome Sears" + }, + { + "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:35.559Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 401, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8542/at-least-one-hemp-attack-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\nOther questions in this tournament ask [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/); how many such attacks would occur, if any do; and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question asks how likely a HEMP attack is if there's any offensive nuclear detonation, to get a clearer sense of how correlated the two types of risks are. For further context on this question, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nWill at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation by 2024. It resolves positively if there is both a HEMP attack and an offensive nuclear detonation (not counting the HEMP attack) by 2024. This requires that, by 31 January 2024, at least three credible sources report each of those events having occurred between this question opening and the end of 2023. What order these events occur in and how close together in time they occur will not be taken into account.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either: 1) a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or 2) a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage). In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:48.388Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:02.593Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 93, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But the condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Two detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if there is the gap between them is 30 days or less.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nWill the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?\nThe question resolves positively if by 2100-01-01 that condition is met and at least 3 credible sources state or estimate that more than 100 million fatalities were caused by the nuclear conflict within 1 month of the final detonation that is part of that conflict. If a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 100 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:09.314Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:27.452Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 90, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:57.193Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 200, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:49.294Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 371, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7003/muon-magnetics-indicative-of-new-physics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On April 7, 2021 researchers at the [Muon g-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon_g-2) experiment at Fermilab [published](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.141801) results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to [speculation](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/long-awaited-muon-measurement-boosts-evidence-for-new-physics/) that it could be a signal of new physics.\nAt 4.2σ, the results fall short of the threshold for a discovery (5σ), but are still unlikely enough to generate excitement. However, previous studies with high sigmas have been overturned based on systematic biases or incorrect background calculations.\nAre Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?\nThe question will resolve negatively if by 2023-04-01 the concensus in the scientific literature is that the discrepancy in muon magnetic moment is <4σ compared to the Standard Model. Results could come in the form of new data, new background computations within the Standard Model, demonstration of systematic bias in the g-2 methodology, etc.\nThe question will resolve positively if the concensus is ≥4σ from the standard model predition. This would imply new particles, new interactions, or other new physics (although compelling theory explaining the magnetic moment is not required for a positive resolution).\nIf no consensus has emerged by 2023-04-01 then the resolution is ambiguous.\nedit 2021-05-01: rephrased resolution criteria, expanded on 'new physics'\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:09.446Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-03-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ken Paxton", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George P. Bush", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eva Guzman", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Louie Gohmert", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Krause", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:34.838Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 105729 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Eva Guzman, Louie Gohmert, Matt Krause" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7652/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-New-Mexico-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:34.632Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 9307 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:51.210Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 239, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the next UK General Election take place after the Election on the 12th December 2019?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249197", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or on Jan 1 2024. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "2022", + "probability": 0.05776863148610907, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2023", + "probability": 0.19256210495369694, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2024 or later", + "probability": 0.749669263560194, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 45284.58 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel hold a national election for Knesset in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7693/Will-Israel-hold-a-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 4:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:06.934Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 6292 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:47.382Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 337, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/vr-outsells-ar-headsets-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:51.989Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 360, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042/us-taxprep-to-decline-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.\nWill <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?\nThe IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nAs numbers currently appear to be available on a 3-year lag, it seems likely that this question won’t resolve until several years after the designated resolution date. If 2027 numbers are not available by 2032, then the earliest post 2027 data available should be used. If no later data is available, this question should resolve ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:40.734Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 20, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the 47th US president?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:17.989Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 188841 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "DJT wins 2024 POTUS election", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A225", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:46.940Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 254, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2161-which-party-will-win-control-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-in-the-2022-midterm-elections", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections ([270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/current-us-house-map/)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022)). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic Party", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican Party", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:24.580Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 408, + "numforecasters": 239, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. This question is cross-posted on Predictit.Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:33.133Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 312, + "numforecasters": 52, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9590/pi-covid-19-variant-by-pi-day/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In honor of the [mathematical constant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi) that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as [Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day) by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.\nPi is also the [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the [World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times.\nWill there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?\nThis resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about the next named variant using Pi Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter pi and goes straight to rho (or sigma, tau...) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:29.917Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 100, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-15T14:16:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8599/semaglutide-approval-withdrawn-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2809%2961375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It’s marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it’s reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don’t yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587%2819%2930249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).\nWill the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for Semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly injection) by 2027-01-01. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:01.110Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $3.5 billion in volume in January 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-35-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $3,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $3.50b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9969752052859796578405015977721383", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.00302479471402034215949840222786172", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "139", + "liquidity": "100.00", + "tradevolume": "17829.09", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=53 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A173", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:07.228Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 104486 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many seats will the Socialist Party win in the 2022 Portuguese election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7587/How-many-seats-will-the-Socialist-Party-win-in-the-2022-Portuguese-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by Partido Socialista, also known as the Socialist Party, in the next election to the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "93 or fewer", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "94 to 97", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "98 to 101", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "102 to 105", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "106 to 109", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "110 to 113", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "114 to 117", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "118 to 121", + "probability": 0.9166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "122 to 125", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "126 or more", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:47.430Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 83907 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "93 or fewer, 94 to 97, 98 to 101, 102 to 105, 106 to 109, 110 to 113, 114 to 117, 118 to 121, 122 to 125, 126 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Carole Delga be a minister in the French government in 2022?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Carole Delga is the socialist president of the Occitanie region, and the president of the Association of French Regions (the first woman to hold this position). She supports a potential presidential candidacy of Anne Hidalgo, the socialist mayor of Paris. In 2022, the French presidential election will be held in April, followed by legislative elections in June. If the president does not have a majority in the Assembly, the prime minister in charge of forming the government will be chosen by the Assembly. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Prime minister of President Hidalgo", + "probability": 0.028571428571428567, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "(Simple) minister of President Hidalgo", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Minister of President Macron", + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Minister of another President", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not minister", + "probability": 0.8857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Prime minister of President Hidalgo, (Simple) minister of President Hidalgo, Minister of President Macron, Minister of another President, Not minister" + }, + { + "title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8474/price-of-ca-water-nqh20-over-2500-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it’s treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)), trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200.\nWill the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if the price of water hits $2500, adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD, on the [NQH20](https://waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) by 2050-01-01, 00:00 UTC. This question resolves negatively if the price of water does not hit $2500 by that date, and it resolves ambiguously if the NQH20 or a similar exchange doesn't continuously track California water prices up until 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:14.297Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 11, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\nWill at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:59.679Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 210, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:26:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.7623762376237624, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.2376237623762376, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:43.086Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13760 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "By April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8845/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-eu/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The European Union is seen by many as the Singapore´s possible successor.\n[As Techspoon](https://thespoon.tech/europe-the-u-s-israel-which-country-might-be-next-to-approve-cultured-meat/) states:\n\"The European Commission has a clearly defined process for bringing cultured meat to market that is known as [Novel Food authorization](https://ec.europa.eu/food/safety/novel_food/authorisations_en). For example, Mosa Meat, based in the Netherlands, has said [it is focusing on Singapore and Europe](https://agfundernews.com/mosa-meat-ceo-maarten-bosch-on-choosing-non-gmo-partnering-for-expansion-and-choosing-beef.html) for its first launches, specifically citing Europe’s Novel Food authorizations as a reason. Europe is also home to many other cultured meat companies, including Blue Biosciences, Mirai, and CellulaREvolution.\" \nOn the other hand, the European approval process is very complicated. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)’s risk assessment process alone takes nine months. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Union approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded. An approval at the EU level is necessary for positive resolution, approval at individual state level is not sufficient, even if all the EU members individually issued such approvals.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:14.771Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8829/new-supreme-court-justice-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/) \nThe Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die.\nWill a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?\nIf a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn order for this question to resolve positive a justice must be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate by the resolution date. A justice being nominated and not confirmed; or being added only via a recess appointment, would not be sufficient to cause this question to resolve positive unless they are also confirmed by the Senate before the resolve date. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:27.944Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 194, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the US Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:34.262Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 703, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On the evening of July 15, 2016, the world was surprised by news of a military coup in process in Turkey. Top politicians, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, and heads of the military and police were [attacked](http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1471502/turkeys-president-erdogan-minutes-away-from-death-after-coup-plotters-stormed-hotel/) or [detained](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-military-chief-rescue-idUSKCN0ZW0C8), [media outlets were taken over](http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/middleeast/turkey-failed-coup-explainer/), and [armed soldiers took over the streets](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045). After President Erdogan issued a call to action using his mobile phone, [Turkish civilians streamed onto the streets](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-astonishing-pictures-show-violent-clashes-and-mobs-attacking-soldiers-attempting-to-a7140406.html) and [confronted the Turkish military](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/brutal-moment-civilians-throw-stones-and-stamp-on-a-turkish-tank/), ultimately [thwarting the coup](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/turkey-failed-coup-attempt-161217032345594.html). In the aftermath of the coup attempt, the Turkish government blamed Fethullah Gulen and urged the US government to extradite him, while arresting, suspending or firing [hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-minister-idUSKBN15F12G?il=0). Gulen for his part [condemned the coup](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/fethullah-gulen-i-condemn-all-threats-to-turkeys-democracy.html?_r=0) and denied any connection to it. Half a year later, the Turkish government was still [prosecuting Gulen in absentia](http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-puts-270-plotters-on-trial-over-failed-coup-10748757), [sparring with Germany and Greece](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-urges-germany-deny-asylum-coup-linked-soldiers-45127682) about the extradition of Turks allegedly involved in the coup attempt, and warning countries in [Africa](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/turkish-president-lands-in-mozambique-for-talks/2017/01/24/49ffed02-e21f-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.a5a440925941) and [Asia ](http://english.almanar.com.lb/101957)about any involvement with the Gulen movement.\nTurkey has a [history of coups](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html), typically being led by the military, with the stated goal of upholding Kemalist values, including secularism, and restoring order. Historically Turkish politics has been dominated by Kemalism, but over the last fifteen years, [religious parties have gradually become the most influential actors in Turkish politics](https://www.brookings.edu/research/turkey-the-new-model/), including the Sufi and modernist-leaning movement of Fethullah Gulen, and Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (the AKP). The AKP calls its ideology \"conservative democratic,\" focused on increasing religious freedom in the public sphere and economic liberalism; its critics allege [censorship of free press and illiberal authoritarianism](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/opinion/turkeys-authoritarian-drift-election-erdogan.html?_r=0).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.", + "probability": 0.9469540803576163, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.", + "probability": 0.03625608693681129, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.", + "probability": 0.016789832705572445, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt., Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack., Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt." + }, + { + "title": "Trump is on the ballot for President in the Republican primary in 2023/2024 ", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A70", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Qatar in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Qatar is Khalifah Al Thani, who has been in power for 7.8 years. Qatar has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0032802", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9967198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Qatar", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Khalifah Al Thani", + "month_risk": "0.0001333", + "annual_risk": "0.0032802", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "50", + "leader_years": "7.75", + "country_code": "QAT", + "country_abb": "QAT" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Solomon Islands in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Solomon Islands is Sogavare, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Solomon Islands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0056878", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9943122, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Solomon Islands", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Sogavare", + "month_risk": "0.0004521", + "annual_risk": "0.0056878", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "43", + "leader_years": "1.916667", + "country_code": "SLB", + "country_abb": "SOL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Olivia Rodrigo win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-9", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Olivia Rodrigo has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 2, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 133236 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:14.834Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:27.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 649, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:52.177Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 266639 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:11.916Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 274026 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9570/at-least-2c-of-warming-by-2037/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[In which year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/first-year-of-global-temperature-above-2c/) \n---[Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) \nThis question concerns a [longbets.org](http://longbets.org) bet over the global temperature. John Mitchell and Zeke Hausfather summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/883/).\nWill the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares John Mitchell the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Zeke Hausfather the winner, then this question resolves negatively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by the Long Now Foundation by January 1, 2040, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThe Longbets terms are repeated below:\nJohn Mitchell will win the bet if the Berkeley Earth Global Average Temperature Anomaly with Sea Ice Temperature Inferred from Air Temperatures dataset reports an annual (January through December) temperature anomaly of over 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period on or before the published value corresponding to the calendar year 2037. Zeke Hausfather will win the bet if an annual temperature anomaly of 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period does not occur before the published calendar year 2037 value. The latest version of the Berkeley Earth global temperature dataset will be used to adjudicate this bet. The temperature anomaly with respect to 1850-1899 will be calculated by subtracting the mean of monthly temperature anomalies over that period (January 1850-December 1899) from the record reported by Berkeley Earth. In the case in which the Berkeley Earth product is discontinued, the Hadley Centre/UEA HadCRUT dataset will be used.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:27.340Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-05-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will I Still Have Faith In You by ABBA win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-1", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If I Still Have Faith In You by ABBA has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.\n. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 7410 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7566/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Greg Abbott", + "probability": 0.8365384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Beto O'Rourke", + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Allen West", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matthew McConaughey", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joaquin Castro", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Julián Castro", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Don Huffines", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:13.014Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 462781 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Beto O'Rourke, Allen West, Matthew McConaughey, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Don Huffines" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hop Protocol airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hop-protocol-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Hop Protocol will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3420131528280667454039378509568034", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6579868471719332545960621490431966", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "79", + "liquidity": "601.73", + "tradevolume": "2362.26", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8669/restrictions-on-us-pres-war-powers-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\nIt is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict.\nWill the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 the current War Powers Resolution is replaced, amended or struck down, via legal challenge, legislation, or executive authority, to further restrict the President’s ability to deploy military force.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:37.814Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Serbia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Serbia is Ana Brnabic, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Serbia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 20 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0048933", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9951067, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Serbia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ana Brnabic", + "month_risk": "0.0004075", + "annual_risk": "0.0048933", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "20", + "leader_years": "3.75", + "country_code": "SRB", + "country_abb": "YUG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:38.114Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 38306 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:05.058Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 97, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8984/norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\nYear Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking \n2018\n1 (tied)\n1\n1\n1\n2014\n1 (tied)\n8\n1 (tied)\n3\n2010\n4\n3\n4\n4\n2006\n13\n4\n1\n6\n2002\n1\n3\n4\n3\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines.\nWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics).\nIn the event that 2 or more countries are tied for the most Gold medals, the tie will be broken by whoever wins the most Silver medals. If those are also tied, the tie will be broken by Bronze medals. If they remain tied, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the case that the Winter Olympics are cancelled or postponed, the \"2022 Winter Olympics\" will be considered to be the major winter sporting event recognized by the [International Olympic Comittee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympic_Committee) held during the years 2022 to 2025, inclusive. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:19.102Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 151, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-03T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:24.075Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 534, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Djibouti in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Djibouti is Guelleh, who has been in power for 21.8 years. Djibouti has a personal regime type which has lasted for 44 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0172222", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9827778, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Djibouti", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Guelleh", + "month_risk": "0.0012201", + "annual_risk": "0.0172222", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "44", + "leader_years": "21.83333", + "country_code": "DJI", + "country_abb": "DJI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9163/trump-back-on-twitter-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Donald Trump was famously banned by Twitter [on 8th January 2021](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension) and [other social media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_use_by_Donald_Trump#2021) such as Facebook. There has since been some talk of letting him back on social media, [Facebook decided to keep the ban for 2 years](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/facebook-says-donald-trump-to-remain-banned-from-platform-for-2-years-effective-from-jan-7.html). Twitter changed CEO recently, and this could potentially impact decisions.\nWill Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has an official [Twitter](https://twitter.com/) account for his personal use (not managed by his staff), and is publicly recognized by Twitter (that is, not an evasion of his ban or against the Twitter terms of service).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:16.227Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Russia from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:49.459Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in China from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:44.351Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kathy Hochul", + "probability": 0.8288288288288288, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jumaane Williams", + "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Suozzi", + "probability": 0.036036036036036036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Letitia James", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Bellone", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:27.464Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 3397542 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kathy Hochul, Jumaane Williams, Tom Suozzi, Andrew Cuomo, Bill de Blasio, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Thomas DiNapoli, Letitia James, Hillary Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bellone" + }, + { + "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_%28decryption_program%29#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:50.147Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2164-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-july-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-china-army-commanders-meet-defuse-tensions-80506130)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:20.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 241, + "numforecasters": 124, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2234-before-1-september-2022-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/cyril-ramaphosa-says-the-world-must-end-vaccine-apartheid), [US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-04/a-year-after-covid-vaccine-waiver-proposal-wto-talks-are-deadlocked), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/intl_business/wto-trips-waiver-ip-india-south-africa-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html)). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states ([WTO](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm), [SDG Knowledge Hub](https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:14.757Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 195, + "numforecasters": 143, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea Bissau in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Guinea Bissau is Embalo, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Guinea Bissau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0353591", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9646409, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Guinea Bissau", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Embalo", + "month_risk": "0.0011004", + "annual_risk": "0.0353591", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "7", + "leader_years": "1.083333", + "country_code": "GNB", + "country_abb": "GNB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Marshall Islands in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Marshall Islands is Kabua, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Marshall Islands has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 41 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.004859", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995141, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Marshall Islands", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Kabua", + "month_risk": "0.000378", + "annual_risk": "0.004859", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "41", + "leader_years": "1.166667", + "country_code": "MHL", + "country_abb": "MSI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8897/israel-palestine-peace-talks-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Israeli government has not held direct peace discussions with the Palestinian Authority [since 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%932014_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks). In May 2021 a conflict, mostly centered on the Gaza Strip, [left nearly 300 people dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis). The Israeli government continues to build settlements inside territory of the West Bank, complicating a future two-state solution to the conflict.\nWill Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, there are in-person bilateral or multi-lateral talks between Israel's government and the government of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, according to official announcements by both parties.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:22.111Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 151, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Phantom airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-phantom-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Phantom will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1155762966447501094564436949102355", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8844237033552498905435563050897645", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "62", + "liquidity": "500.46", + "tradevolume": "7046.16", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the named candidate be in the final 2 candidates for the run-off of the next French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176650032", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on election day. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If there is no final run-off this market will be settled on the first two candidates in the first round of voting. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever wins the first round of voting. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the voting for the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.4707772108592961, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marine Le Pen", + "probability": 0.2376304016718352, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valerie Pecresse", + "probability": 0.17207718741753583, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Zemmour", + "probability": 0.08048771669529901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", + "probability": 0.01996095374043416, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Christiane Taubira", + "probability": 0.008317064058514232, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yanick Jadot", + "probability": 0.001996095374043416, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anne Hidalgo", + "probability": 0.0005544709372342821, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Edouard Philippe", + "probability": 0.000509208003582504, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Ciotti", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xavier Bertrand", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francois Asselineau", + "probability": 0.0007128912050155056, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "François Hollande", + "probability": 0.0005252882563272146, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruno Retailleau", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michel Barnier", + "probability": 0.000504064488394802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francois Baroin", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", + "probability": 0.0005607009477650044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", + "probability": 0.0008317064058514232, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Piolle", + "probability": 0.0005252882563272146, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ségolène Royal", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruno Le Maire", + "probability": 0.0005365847779686601, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", + "probability": 0.000499023843510854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 198677.93 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Valerie Pecresse, Eric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Christiane Taubira, Yanick Jadot, Anne Hidalgo, Edouard Philippe, Eric Ciotti, Nicolas Sarkozy, Xavier Bertrand, Francois Asselineau, François Hollande, Bruno Retailleau, Michel Barnier, Francois Baroin, Arnaud Montebourg, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Eric Piolle, Ségolène Royal, Bruno Le Maire, Bernard Cazeneuve" + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:31.782Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 54, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Wormhole hacker return 69% or more of the exploited funds by February 9th?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-wormhole-hacker-return-69-or-more-of-the-exploited-funds-by-february-9th", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "In Response to Trader inquiry: Wormhole has clarified that 120k wETH was exploited. However, this market will continue to use 64,688 ETH returned as the threshold for resolving the market to “Yes.”\n\nOn 2/2/2022 Wormhole was exploited for approximately 93,750 ETH, as can be seen here: https://etherscan.io/address/0x629e7da20197a5429d30da36e77d06cdf796b71a#internaltx\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Wormhole hacker returns at least 69% of the exploited funds to Wormhole by February 9, 2022 11:59:59 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. \n\nAny official announcements by Wormhole (https://wormholenetwork.com/, https://twitter.com/wormholecrypto, etc) will be sufficient to resolve this market, as well as transactions from the hacker that return the funds to whichever relevant party or parties as determined by Wormhole.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 69% or more of the exploited funds means 64,688 ETH or more. or if other cryptocurrencies/currencies are sent instead, then at the time they were sent if their conversion into ETH was 64,688 ETH or more, it will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes.”\n\nNote that if funds are returned to Wormhole in another way, and they confirm, it will count for this market.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1156523467509259220849349200886197", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8843476532490740779150650799113803", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "79", + "liquidity": "24687.18", + "tradevolume": "29641.10", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:02.343Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 58307 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/first-award-for-spanish-sci-fi-by-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:57.736Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2244-before-1-january-2023-will-the-us-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal), [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-nuclear-talks-2022-options/31634579.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/irans-nuclear-growth-puts-deal-risk), [Congressional Research Service](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46663)). The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:49.589Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasters": 65, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=49 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A169", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8931/carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his title against a challenger.\nWill Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?\nThis question resolves positively if Carlsen plays and finishes at least one game in the next World Chess Championship match (so the first one after the championship held in 2021). It resolves negatively if the championship is held but Carlsen is not one of the players, and it resolves ambiguously if the championship is not held until the resolution date of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:31.847Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 47, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of Canadians will report having ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video, according to the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2193-what-percentage-of-canadians-will-report-having-ever-visited-their-health-care-provider-virtually-online-by-video-according-to-the-2022-canadian-digital-health-survey", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Canada Health Infoway conducts the annual Canadian Digital Health Survey to track various metrics and solicit feedback from Canadians ([Infoway - Digital Health Survey](https://insights.infoway-inforoute.ca/digital-health-survey)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the results of the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey, expected to be made in the summer of 2022 and released later, as displayed on the infographics. In 2021, the percentage of survey respondents (Canadians over the age of 16) who reported that they had ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video was 17% ([Infoway - Virtual Visits](https://insights.infoway-inforoute.ca/virtual_visits/), see \"Use of Virtual Visits (VIDEO)\").\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 17%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 17% and 20%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 20% but less than 25%", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "25% or more", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:22.706Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasters": 40, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 17%, Between 17% and 20%, inclusive, More than 20% but less than 25%, 25% or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:59.718Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 223, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:59.846Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 209, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \nThe majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\nWill a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:40.251Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 44, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T21:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).", + "probability": 0.9526172817647263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).", + "probability": 0.022161263441175128, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).", + "probability": 0.020142059292511075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).", + "probability": 0.005079395501587589, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR)." + }, + { + "title": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2166-what-will-be-the-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-greater-toronto-area-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([RENX.ca](https://renx.ca/q4-2020-office-report-major-city-snapshots-colliers/), [Canadian Real Estate](https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/this-western-citys-office-vacancy-is-26-334413.aspx), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/office-vacancies-in-canada-reach-highest-level-since-1994), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/09/23/canadian-office-vacancy-rate-hits-highest-level-since-1994-in-third-quarter.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome  determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 ([Colliers Canada](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% ([Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/greater-toronto-area-office-market-report-q4-2019), [Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/toronto-office-market-report-2021-q3)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 5.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 11.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:17.861Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive, Higher than 11.0%" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2225-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-pennsylvania-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Republican Party candidate", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:32.108Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7736/unique-games-conjecture-resolution/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. It states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.\nWill the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Boaz Barak writes publicly (on Twitter, a blog, or elsewhere) that Elchanan Mossel has won the bet. It resolves negatively if he announces Subhash Khot has won. If there is no announcement by the resolve date, then it resolves positively if there is a peer reviewed paper that was originally uploaded to the ArXiv in 2030 which is accepted in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference by the resolve date. Else, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:34.416Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8851/cultivated-meat-profitable-by-april-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).\nAnd it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. \n\"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney.\"\nLarge, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)\nAlthough no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely. Therefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.\nWill a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period. \nWe define \"focuses primarily\" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nThe profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:51.419Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7550/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Arizona. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kari Lake", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Salmon", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kirk Adams", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Gaynor", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kimberly Yee", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:42.943Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 23326 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kari Lake, Matt Salmon, Kirk Adams, Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/) (closed) \n[The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the [scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance).The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the [latest assessment from IAEA](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-offers-less-for-more-as-vienna-talks-stall/). [Negotiations resumed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna) in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal. \nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before January 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2023, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. the question will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Iranian governments, or credible media reports.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:16.950Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 196, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:31.920Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 102, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FEDCONF-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Congress.gov indicates that the Senate has confirmed Jerome Powell to be Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and by 10:00 AM on February 28, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FEDCONF in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: The set of nominations that have been confirmed by the Senate according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 36, + "yes_ask": 40, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 121736 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2238-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/food-prices-will-stay-high-hurting-poor-countries-most), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in July 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/), see table near bottom of page).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 120.0", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 130.0 but less than 140.0", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 150.0", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:00.967Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 195, + "numforecasters": 119, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0 but less than 140.0, Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive, More than 150.0" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:12.366Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 254, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\nIn the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nWill 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:04.738Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-vaccine-specifically-targeting-the-omicron-variant-be-available-for-access-by-the-us-population-before-april-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "If a vaccine engineered to specifically provide protection against the Omicron variant of COVID-19, whether or not it additionally protects against other variants of SARS-CoV-2, is released for public use in the US, regardless of whether its use is restricted to particular population segments, before April 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe source used to resolve this market will be official information released by the FDA (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) and/or other official information from the government of the United States of America.\n\nNote, this market is only for a vaccine’s availability in the United States, and does not cover any vaccine’s availability in any other country.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1477953069189596073322716278146964", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8522046930810403926677283721853036", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "41", + "liquidity": "3884.58", + "tradevolume": "6885.06", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden is 2024 POTUS", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A249", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:17.832Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 174, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:32.876Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 81, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the closing value of the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 26 May 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2205-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-turkish-lira-against-the-us-dollar-on-26-may-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The Turkish lira hit record lows in November 2021 amid President Erdogan's economic policies and growing influence over the country's central bank ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-lira-crashes-to-new-low-against-us-dollar-euro/a-59906311), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/turkeys-lira-hits-all-time-low-after-erdogan-rate-remarks)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 8.00", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "16.00 or higher", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:10.520Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 266, + "numforecasters": 56, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 8.00, Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive, Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00, Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive, Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00, 16.00 or higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:10.251Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 323, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **Euro/USD exchange rate** be above 1.14 on February 4?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FOREX-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Federal Reserve's H.10 report reports the conversion between the U.S. dollar and Euro on February 04, 2022 is above 1.14, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FOREX in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. Please note that the data is from the Federal Reserve and represents the noon buying rate on the date in question.\n\nData is expected to be released at 4:15 PM on February 7, 2022. The market will close at 4:10 that day. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data or February 18, 2022. . The resolution source is: The foreign exchange rate of Euro with the U.S. dollar for February 04, 2022 according to the Federal Reserve’s H.10 weekly release. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 78, + "yes_ask": 81, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 15846 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378/total-nuclear-weapon-yield-worlwide-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.\nWill the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?\nResolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n--- \nask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n--- \nmake an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which stockpiles include a total of more than 20,000 warheads and their mean yield is 500kt. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:56.808Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 24, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Gambia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Gambia is Barrow, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Gambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 4 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.026067", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.973933, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Gambia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Barrow", + "month_risk": "0.0009784", + "annual_risk": "0.026067", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "4", + "leader_years": "4.166667", + "country_code": "GMB", + "country_abb": "GAM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **unemployment rate** (U-3) be above 3.7% in January?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/U3-009", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the unemployment rate (U-3) is above 3.7% in January 2022 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see U3 in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for January 2022, or February 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM ET. The market will always close on February 4 at 8:25 AM ET.. The resolution source is: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 76, + "yes_ask": 80, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 8768 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:24.774Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 6077 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:10.541Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 91, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7576/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party shall be considered synonymous with the Democratic Party. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.7115384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:22.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 36765 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2235-when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-reported-to-the-cdc-next-be-50-000-or-lower", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases)). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 February 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 August 2022", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:06.137Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 281, + "numforecasters": 124, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 February 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Not before 1 August 2022" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Macedonia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Macedonia is Zaev, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Macedonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0056277", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9943723, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Macedonia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Zaev", + "month_risk": "0.0004657", + "annual_risk": "0.0056277", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", + "regime_years": "29", + "leader_years": "0.5833333", + "country_code": "MKD", + "country_abb": "MAC" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Eric Zemmour be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", @@ -276,6 +7262,2602 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:56.918Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 312, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating on any day in 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-higher-than-his-disapproval-rating-on-any-day-in-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating, as per FiveThirtyEight, on any day of 2022.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator,\n(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), specifically, the approval rating indicated by the green trend line and the disapproval rating indicated by the orange line for the resolution date. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if for any day on or after January 1, 2022 and before January 1 2023, Joe Biden's approval rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than the disapproval rating.\n\nChanges in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the outlined event occurs. The last check will be on January 1, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the last check, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the rating for the resolution date is available. If the ratings are still not available on the resolution source a week later or Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval ratings.\n\nIf the resolution source link changes, the new link will be used.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3235162172135737382796469255970429", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6764837827864262617203530744029571", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "41", + "liquidity": "2448.73", + "tradevolume": "2240.30", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Leondra Kruger become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-3", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Leondra Kruger is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if Leondra Kruger is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 14, + "yes_ask": 17, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 17728 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:03.292Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 380, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8947/google-uses-explainable-ads-by-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.\nWill Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:08.867Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:46.566Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 356, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:30.398Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 146, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Japan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Japan is Yoshihide Suga, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Japan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 70 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0012854", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9987146, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Japan", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Yoshihide Suga", + "month_risk": "0.0000953", + "annual_risk": "0.0012854", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "70", + "leader_years": "0.5", + "country_code": "JPN", + "country_abb": "JPN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:19.721Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 43, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in New Zealand in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of New Zealand is Jacinda Ardern, who has been in power for 3.4 years. New Zealand has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 113 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0021285", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9978715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "New Zealand", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Jacinda Ardern", + "month_risk": "0.0009376", + "annual_risk": "0.0021285", + "risk_change_percent": "0.08", + "regime_years": "113", + "leader_years": "3.416667", + "country_code": "NZL", + "country_abb": "NEW" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2024 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\nFor reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:21.965Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "DJT wins 2024 RNOM", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A224", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2133-will-single-use-plastic-bags-be-banned-in-all-of-the-uae-before-8-january-2023", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags ([Gulf Business](https://gulfbusiness.com/how-data-is-quantifying-the-impact-of-plastic-on-the-environment/), [Arabian Business](https://www.arabianbusiness.com/culture-society/442488-abu-dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/next/2020/01/24/dubai-acts-to-stem-the-tide-of-single-use-plastic)). A ban imposed either by the UAE government or all seven individual emirate governments would count. The ban must take effect during the question's open period to count. A ban with limited exceptions (e.g., medical uses) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:08.019Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasters": 58, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:59.423Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 287, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing. \nWill GB News be broadcasting in 2025?\nGB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of \"GB News\" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025. \nThe ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words \"GB News\" in the channel title.\nThe authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:52.697Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 101, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive. If there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:59.622Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 39, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7688/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Wisconsin.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Rebecca Kleefisch", + "probability": 0.6952380952380952, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kevin Nicholson", + "probability": 0.27619047619047615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jonathan Wichmann", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Fischer", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:50.669Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 2132 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rebecca Kleefisch, Kevin Nicholson, Jonathan Wichmann, Adam Fischer" + }, + { + "title": "Will OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-olympusdao-ohm-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf OlympusDAO (Ohm) is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1054924997321857006368035540309609", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8945075002678142993631964459690391", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "27", + "liquidity": "3000.00", + "tradevolume": "5655.81", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_%28eurozone%29)\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.\nWill the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?\nResolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded. \nThe question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:58.962Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 31, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9523/peloton-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_%28exercise_equipment_company%29) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization of nearly $50 billion.](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap)\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 84%, and it has been [dropped from the Nasdaq-100](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peloton-stock-price-decline-kicked-out-nasdaq-100-index-2022-1). In January 2022, it was reported that the company [is working with consulting firm McKinsey & Co to review its cost structure and may cut some jobs.](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/peloton-reviews-cost-structure-with-mckinsey-may-cut-jobs-cnbc-2022-01-18/)\nFurther, on January 20, 2022, it was reported that Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products as consumer demand wanes and the company looks to control costs, according to internal documents [obtained by CNBC.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)\nWill Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\nOnly petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:43.041Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china#daily-confirmed-deaths-how-do-they-compare-to-other-countries).\nThis figure has been widely questioned, e.g. by [Forbes](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/amp/) and [ABC news](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100587910), with suggestions ranging from true numbers in the low 10,000s to over 1,000,000.\nThis question asks if OWID will report a cumulative deaths figure of greater than 50,000 for China by the end of 2022.\nWill cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?\nIf Our World In Data report a cumulative total of over 50,000 deaths in China by the end of 2022, this should resolve positively, otherwise it should resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:13.186Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 28, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2228-will-the-spread-between-us-high-yield-corporate-bonds-and-us-treasuries-reach-or-exceed-5-00-before-1-october-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/an-uptick-in-corporate-defaults-is-unlikely), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-debt-investors-brace-for-tighter-financial-conditions-in-2022-11638217461)). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2)). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:26.670Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasters": 140, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:00.594Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 688, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:08.172Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 221, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?\nThis resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.\nDonations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.\nIf Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted. \nIf he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.\nIf some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:58.845Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 50, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Bored Ape appear during a SuperBowl LVI Commercial or Halftime Show?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-bored-ape-appear-during-a-superbowl-lvi-commercial-or-halftime-show", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether a Bored Ape NFT will appear within any SuperBowl LVI commercial or as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show. If any Bored Ape NFT, or image of a Bored Ape appears during any SuperBowl LVI Commercial or at all as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/commercials and official footage from the Superbowl LVI Halftime Show, however other credible sources will also suffice.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3672060847440502671796390113011679", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6327939152559497328203609886988321", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "67", + "liquidity": "10668.94", + "tradevolume": "8848.85", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:43.678Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 223, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:19.098Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 33770 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Sanofi comercialize a Covid-19 vaccine under its brand in 2021?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": " ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5882352941176471, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.972Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2190-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-shiba-inu-on-31-august-2022-according-to-coinmarketcap", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using the \"Close\" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data for SHIBA INU\" the morning of 1 September 2022 ([CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/shiba-inu/historical-data/)). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $15 billion", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$55 billion or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:26.419Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasters": 38, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $15 billion, Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive, More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion, Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive, More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion, $55 billion or more" + }, + { + "title": "What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\nFlight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.\n![image] (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg/440px-MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg.png)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.", + "probability": 0.9303855144518759, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.", + "probability": 0.040451544106603274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.", + "probability": 0.021068512555522584, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.", + "probability": 0.004577391856729619, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).", + "probability": 0.00028091350074030126, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.", + "probability": 0.003236123528528264, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide., The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide., Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours., Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane., Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down)., The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane." + }, + { + "title": "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 1.8% on February 07, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TNOTE-005", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is above 1.8% on February 07, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see TNOTE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThese par yields are derived from bid-side market price quotations at or near 3:30 PM each trading day.\n\nThe market will expire and close and expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the data release for February 07, 2022, or one week following February 07, 2022.. The resolution source is: The Underlying for this contract is daily Treasury par yield curve rates for 10-year U.S. treasury notes for February 07, 2022 according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 51, + "yes_ask": 52, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 2104 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will NASA land a **person on the Moon** before 2025? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MOON-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If NASA announces that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon before December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see MOON in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the Expiration Time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Press releases from NASA. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 14, + "yes_ask": 17, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 12156 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Ukraine in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Ukraine is Zelensky, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Ukraine has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0146823", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9853177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Ukraine", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Zelensky", + "month_risk": "0.0004871", + "annual_risk": "0.0146823", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.17", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "1.833333", + "country_code": "UKR", + "country_abb": "UKR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will average daily **COVID-19 case numbers in Italy** be above 125,000 for the week ending February 07, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-018", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy in the period between in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 is greater than 125,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 07, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 21, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 for Italy as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 2, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 5394 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Colombia?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2209-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-colombia", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "With President Iván Duque Márquez term limited, the race to be the next president of Colombia is wide open ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/latin-america-is-in-danger-of-going-back-to-the-old-normal), [Americas Quarterly](https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-colombia), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/candidate-feared-by-investors-leads-colombian-presidential-poll)). The first round of Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for 29 May 2022, with a runoff scheduled for 19 June 2022, if needed.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Sergio Fajardo", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Manuel Galán", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alejandro Gaviria", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Federico Gutiérrez", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rodolfo Hernández", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gustavo Petro", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another candidate", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:02.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasters": 92, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sergio Fajardo, Juan Manuel Galán, Alejandro Gaviria, Federico Gutiérrez, Rodolfo Hernández, Gustavo Petro, Another candidate" + }, + { + "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_%281%29_%28%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh%29_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:28.781Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 168, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:01.164Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 166, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4509803921568627, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5490196078431372, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8835/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.\nWill the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?\nResolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:43.689Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 44, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 91.5 million Americans have **COVID-19 boosters** by February 9, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/BOOSTER-019", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If over 91.5 million fully vaccinated Americans are reported as having received a booster shot for COVID-19 by February 9, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see BOOSTER in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 9, 2022 or February 16, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of fully vaccinated people who have received a booster shot for COVID-19 as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 2, + "yes_ask": 4, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 4022 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Oregon Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7556/Who-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Oregon. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Tina Kotek", + "probability": 0.7142857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tobias Read", + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicholas Kristof", + "probability": 0.11428571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deborah Kafoury", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ellen Rosenblum", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Wheeler", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:56.326Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 61054 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Tina Kotek, Tobias Read, Nicholas Kristof, Deborah Kafoury, Ellen Rosenblum, Ted Wheeler" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:26.214Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 480, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bhutan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Bhutan is Lotay Tshering, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Bhutan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0069432", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9930568, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Bhutan", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lotay Tshering", + "month_risk": "0.000542", + "annual_risk": "0.0069432", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "13", + "leader_years": "2.333333", + "country_code": "BTN", + "country_abb": "BHU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:59.628Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 116, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8613/non-state-actor-acquires-a-nuke-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group who is not in a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) has possession of a nuclear weapon that was originally developed by a state and is in deployable condition at the time the state acquires it (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This may occur (for example) by sales, theft, or a state inadvertently losing control of a weapon. This will not include cases where a non-state actor independently develops a weapon (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)). \nA non-state actor obtaining [highly-enriched uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Highly_enriched_uranium_%28HEU%29) or other weapons material is not sufficient to resolve this question positively. Additionally, [dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:03.946Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 21, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).\nWill marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?\nIf recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (excluding anomalies that last for less than 6 months) prior to the final day of 2040, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\nIf the surface of the Earth changes sufficiently drastically to make the described land area ill-defined, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:44.798Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 81, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:34.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 269, + "numforecasters": 52, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:21.345Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 73, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/168-when-will-1-billion-people-in-india-receive-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of December 20, 2021, 829 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row in the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.For time series data, see Our World in Data. Underlying data from Our World in Data is here.*** \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:32.273Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 696, + "numforecasters": 165, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by June 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-june-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, June 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2840319179541281973297148546040359", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7159680820458718026702851453959641", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "65", + "liquidity": "9893.06", + "tradevolume": "10618.11", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of Polygon ($MATIC) be on March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-polygon-matic-be-on-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Polygon ($MATIC) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $0.80, and the upper bound is $3.20. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Long", + "probability": "0.3289743839304869562959950000197544", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Short", + "probability": "0.6710256160695130437040049999802456", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "65", + "liquidity": "1000.00", + "tradevolume": "1403.71", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:06.375Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 274, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Greg Abbott", + "probability": 0.8796296296296295, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Allen West", + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Don Huffines", + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chad Prather", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matthew McConaughey", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Crenshaw", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Straus", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George P. Bush", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Patrick", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:35.182Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 737944 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Allen West, Don Huffines, Chad Prather, Matthew McConaughey, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20%28NHANES%29%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:17.547Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:41.631Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 177, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 100,000 on March 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-100000-on-march-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 100,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7642754705139587082971757427413525", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2357245294860412917028242572586475", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "45", + "liquidity": "374.17", + "tradevolume": "1316.07", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-8", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9750 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8535/nprs-reaction-on-weapons-employment-by-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThis question resolves positively if the next Nuclear Posture Review (released between the time of this question opening and 31-12-2023) includes clear affirmation that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if a new Nuclear Posture Review is not publicly available by 2024 (but that seems very unlikely).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:12.363Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **government be shut down** on February 19?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SHUTDOWN-003", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government is shut down on February 19, 2022 at 10:00 AM due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: Notices on the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 4, + "yes_ask": 6, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 21644 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:43.678Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 175, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Electoral Count Act be amended by July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7705/Will-the-Electoral-Count-Act-be-amended-by-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 19, 2022 and by the End Date listed below, federal legislation is enacted that amends the Electoral Count Act. For purposes of this market, any amendment to 3 U.S. Code §§ 1-18 shall be sufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nEnactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law. The timing with which relevant amendments go into effect shall not be considered relevant for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:46.177Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 11405 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:11.190Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 440, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Cambodia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Cambodia is Hun Sen, who has been in power for 23.7 years. Cambodia has a party regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0096552", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9903448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Cambodia", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Hun Sen", + "month_risk": "0.001734", + "annual_risk": "0.0096552", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "23.66667", + "country_code": "KHM", + "country_abb": "CAM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Joe Biden", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stacey Abrams", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sherrod Brown", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:32.432Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 4670829 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Stacey Abrams, Sherrod Brown" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in St Vincent in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of St Vincent is Gonsalves, who has been in power for 20.0 years. St Vincent has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 41 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0049008", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950992, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "St Vincent", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Gonsalves", + "month_risk": "0.0004128", + "annual_risk": "0.0049008", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "41", + "leader_years": "20", + "country_code": "VCT", + "country_abb": "SVG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2254-at-close-of-business-on-15-june-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-4-may-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 14-15 June 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Same", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:30.346Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 65, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Tunisia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Tunisia is Saied, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Tunisia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 6 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.007303", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.992697, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Tunisia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Saied", + "month_risk": "0.0005524", + "annual_risk": "0.007303", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", + "regime_years": "6", + "leader_years": "1.416667", + "country_code": "TUN", + "country_abb": "TUN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the first-elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.\nAn individual elected, appointed, acting as, and/or sworn in as Speaker Pro Tempore will be insufficient to cause the question listing that individual to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kevin McCarthy", + "probability": 0.6491228070175438, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nancy Pelosi", + "probability": 0.07894736842105261, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Scalise", + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hakeem Jeffries", + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump", + "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Elise Stefanik", + "probability": 0.026315789473684206, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Jordan", + "probability": 0.026315789473684206, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steny Hoyer", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "James Clyburn", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cathy McM. Rodgers", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Karen Bass", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Schiff", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cheri Bustos", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katherine Clark", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Banks", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:38.667Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1390465 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Nancy Pelosi, Steve Scalise, Hakeem Jeffries, Donald Trump, Elise Stefanik, Jim Jordan, Steny Hoyer, James Clyburn, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Adam Schiff, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Katherine Clark, Jim Banks" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.\n\nThis market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": "0.2650002484873803923206660944857367", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": "0.7349997515126196076793339055142633", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "77", + "liquidity": "2433.63", + "tradevolume": "2111.27", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will Pedro Castillo lose power in Peru?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Pedro Castillo, president of Peru, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Castillo has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2177-how-many-public-level-2-and-dc-fast-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-us-as-of-29-april-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Focus is being directed at electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/574926-how-the-us-can-build-ev-charging-infrastructure-that-works)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 29 April 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fueling Station Locator](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC), parameters are set with the link). Data on public Level 2 and DC Fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type,\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to both \"Level 2\" and \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 49,000", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 61,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:57.150Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 246, + "numforecasters": 67, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 49,000, Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive, More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000, Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive, More than 61,000" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Venezuela in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Venezuela is Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power for 8.0 years. Venezuela has a personal regime type which has lasted for 15 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0280701", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9719299, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Venezuela", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nicolas Maduro", + "month_risk": "0.003623", + "annual_risk": "0.0280701", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "15", + "leader_years": "8", + "country_code": "VEN", + "country_abb": "VEN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8675/space-debris-causes-fatality-before-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety.\nWill space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?\nThe question resolves as positive if, between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, a fatality in space is attributed to space debris, according to major national space agencies or credible media reports.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:03.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-31T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Brazil in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Brazil is Bolsonaro, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Brazil has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 36 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0042516", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9957484, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Brazil", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Bolsonaro", + "month_risk": "0.0003469", + "annual_risk": "0.0042516", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "36", + "leader_years": "2.166667", + "country_code": "BRA", + "country_abb": "BRA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will SCOTUS strike down Mississippi ban on pre-viability abortions in Dobbs?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7504/Will-SCOTUS-strike-down-Mississippi-ban-on-pre-viability-abortions-in-Dobbs", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if the Supreme Court, in a ruling that decides the outcome of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, issues an opinion subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, with the effect of striking down Mississippi's ban on pre-viability abortions.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:49.886Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 125261 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:45.334Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 51, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by April 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7653/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-April-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 21, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:38.605Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 60522 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. \nvs.\n---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. \nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \nThis is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:\nIt seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n— ​​​Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video [\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)\nQuestion: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? \nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nIt compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n2-- \nIt has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n3-- \nIt defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). \n4-- \nIt defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n5-- \nIt is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:06.955Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 94, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 was against a battlefield target. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict (unless credible media reporting widely considers a city to be the primary target of the detonation, in which case it will not be seen as a battlefield target even if it is close to a frontline). If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. \nSee also:\n--- \n[What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:30.159Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 43, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:32.220Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 143, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:25.935Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 80, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/", @@ -293,7 +9875,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:05:03.682Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:43.943Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -306,6 +9888,8963 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:49.614Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 532, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7667/Who-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Michigan.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "James Craig", + "probability": 0.5728155339805825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kevin Rinke", + "probability": 0.20388349514563106, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tudor Dixon", + "probability": 0.0970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Garrett Soldano", + "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Cox", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John James", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lisa McClain", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jack O'Malley", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ryan Kelley", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donna Brandenburg", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Brown", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ralph Rebrandt", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:03.748Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 7045 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "James Craig, Kevin Rinke, Tudor Dixon, Garrett Soldano, Mike Cox, John James, Lisa McClain, Jack O'Malley, Ryan Kelley, Donna Brandenburg, Michael Brown, Ralph Rebrandt" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2203-what-will-be-the-annual-percentage-change-in-the-average-hourly-earnings-of-us-private-sector-employees-in-october-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/a-sharp-rise-in-wages-is-contributing-to-worries-over-inflation.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/tightest-u-s-job-market-since-1950s-set-to-drive-inflation), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wages-and-prices-are-up-but-it-isnt-a-spiralyet-11635688981)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private,\" expected on 4 November 2022 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5), adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "An increase of less than 2.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "An increase of 6.0% or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:12.107Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 173, + "numforecasters": 84, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "An increase of less than 2.0%, An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, An increase of 6.0% or more" + }, + { + "title": "Breyer resigns in 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A265", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in North Korea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of North Korea is Kim Jong Un, who has been in power for 9.3 years. North Korea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 72 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.005169", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.994831, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "North Korea", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Kim Jong Un", + "month_risk": "0.000483", + "annual_risk": "0.005169", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "72", + "leader_years": "9.25", + "country_code": "PRK", + "country_abb": "PRK" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:46.386Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 168, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2094-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Malaysia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Malaysia is Muhyiddin Yassin, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Malaysia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.009486", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.990514, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Malaysia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Muhyiddin Yassin", + "month_risk": "0.0024525", + "annual_risk": "0.009486", + "risk_change_percent": "0.05", + "regime_years": "3", + "leader_years": "1", + "country_code": "MYS", + "country_abb": "MAL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many Republican governors will there be after the midterms?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7632/How-many-Republican-governors-will-there-be-after-the-midterms", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the number of State governors with a Republican party affiliation, at the End Date listed below. \nParty affiliation shall refer to Senator's ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference on the day of the election. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "22 or fewer", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "23", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "24", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "25", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "26", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "27", + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "28", + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "29", + "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30", + "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "31", + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "32 or more", + "probability": 0.4059405940594059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:54.600Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 32130 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "22 or fewer, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 or more" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will the European Union include nuclear energy in its \"taxonomy\" of green energies?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "The EU's [Sustainable Finance Taxonomy](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/200309-sustainable-finance-teg-final-report-taxonomy_en.pdf), aka the \"green taxonomy\", is a project for the European classification of low-carbon or transitional economic activities designed to guide investments. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6435643564356436, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3564356435643565, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:43.149Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:49.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 256, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8854/indian-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Indian officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside India, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Indian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:06.921Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 15, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Tuvalu in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Tuvalu is Natano, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Tuvalu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0047852", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9952148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Tuvalu", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Natano", + "month_risk": "0.0014827", + "annual_risk": "0.0047852", + "risk_change_percent": "0.12", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "1.5", + "country_code": "TUV", + "country_abb": "TUV" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:11.702Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1085, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "12 or fewer", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "13", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "14", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "15", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "16", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "17", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "18", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "19", + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20", + "probability": 0.8018867924528301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "21", + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "22", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "23 or more", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:16.259Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 2220516 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new U.S. Supreme Court justice be confirmed in 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-us-supreme-court-justice-be-confirmed-in-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Senate confirms and names a new justice to the Supreme Court on or before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, if a new justice is announced before the resolution date, but it comes into effect afterwards, this market will resolve to “Yes”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8884788094595390461434336561205301", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1115211905404609538565663438794699", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "133", + "liquidity": "600.00", + "tradevolume": "11524.30", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8032/iran-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.\nWill Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Iranian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:39.637Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 54, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in St Kitts and Nevis in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of St Kitts and Nevis is Harris, who has been in power for 6.1 years. St Kitts and Nevis has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 38 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0036867", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9963133, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "St Kitts and Nevis", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Harris", + "month_risk": "0.0003015", + "annual_risk": "0.0036867", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "38", + "leader_years": "6.083333", + "country_code": "KNA", + "country_abb": "SKN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:07.322Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 85, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:09.582Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 351, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:54.439Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 182, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Cameroon in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Cameroon is Biya, who has been in power for 38.3 years. Cameroon has a personal regime type which has lasted for 38 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0116277", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9883723, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Cameroon", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Biya", + "month_risk": "0.0005819", + "annual_risk": "0.0116277", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "38", + "leader_years": "38.33333", + "country_code": "CMR", + "country_abb": "CAO" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group working for a government project.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:20.305Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the GA-07 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7611/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-GA-07-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Georgia's Seventh Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lucy McBath", + "probability": 0.7281553398058253, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carolyn Bourdeaux", + "probability": 0.2718446601941748, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:26.088Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 17767 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucy McBath, Carolyn Bourdeaux" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Tonga in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Tonga is Tu'I'onetoa, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Tonga has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 51 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0065333", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9934667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Tonga", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Tu'I'onetoa", + "month_risk": "0.000476", + "annual_risk": "0.0065333", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "51", + "leader_years": "1.416667", + "country_code": "TON", + "country_abb": "TON" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7790/nyc-hurricane-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others.\nWill New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2030, credible media reports indicate that there have been [sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 33 meters per second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) for one minute at 10m above the surface of some point within the city limits of New York City.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:23.932Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Why was Seth Rich killed?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, [DNC staffer Seth Rich](http://www.popville.com/2016/07/early-morning-shooting-in-bloomingdale/) was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.\nWhile the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. [When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder](http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2124316-assange-belooft-nieuwe-onthullingen-over-clinton.html) these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were [interpreted](http://forward.com/news/national/347668/newt-gingrich-just-fanned-the-flames-of-seth-rich-conspiracy-theories/) by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong.", + "probability": 0.8899299168589954, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee.", + "probability": 0.09615579336720934, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee.", + "probability": 0.01391428977379551, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee." + }, + { + "title": "Will the **high in Chicago** be over 23° on Friday?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CHIHIGH-251", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for February 04, 2022, is strictly greater than 23°, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see CHIHIGH in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nPlease be advised to check to see what temperatures have occurred previously in the day. While the market resolves based on the finalized report from the NWS, traders should use other data sources--including other preliminary NWS reporting--to inform their trades.\n\nThe Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM ET on February 04, 2022 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for February 04, 2022, or one week after February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for February 04, 2022, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 64, + "yes_ask": 90, + "spread": 26, + "shares_volume": 3198 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\nToday, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.\nWill US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there is any year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:28.390Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 86, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9609/orb%25C3%25A1n-wins-2022-hungarian-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is [United for Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_for_Hungary), which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by [Péter Márki-Zay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_M%C3%A1rki-Zay), a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition.\nWill Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022.\nIn the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:55.724Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 39, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-09T14:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On April 4, 2017, Khan Sheikhoun, Syria came under attack. There were reports of dozens dead and hundreds injured, with those affected displaying signs of exposure to sarin.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack.", + "probability": 0.8253215707870933, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack.", + "probability": 0.16344300992585953, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents.", + "probability": 0.011235419287047115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack., The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack., A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents." + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):\n\"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.\n[In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\nOne unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: \"With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\"\nThis question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:37.802Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 139, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:55:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by 2100-01-01, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:19.284Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 191, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-11T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\nWe acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\nThis improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).\nWill a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?\nThis question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nExtra junk information, such as a researcher adding 999 petabytes of zeros at the end of their file (as unlikely as this may be), cannot count towards resolution, and admins will use their discretion in this regard. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:35.415Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/) \n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world’s premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021. \nWill at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?\nThis question will resolve positively if any work presented at Art Basel in 2030 is available for sale as a [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT). Art presented at any of the 2030 Art Basel fairs (Basel, Miami Beach, Hong Kong) will be sufficient to resolve the question. A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\nIf no events are held by Art Basel in 2030, resolution may include events in 2031. If there are no such events by Art Basel between January 1, 2030 to January 1, 2032, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:14.329Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 11, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Chuck Grassley", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pat Grassley", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ashley Hinson", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Carlin", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matthew Whitaker", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:49.158Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 122308 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Ashley Hinson, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker" + }, + { + "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:51.336Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 114, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many federal judges will be confirmed by Feb. 18?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7674/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Feb-18", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2022.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –\nUnited States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Trade, and the Supreme Court of the United States.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/18/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/21/2022 11:13 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: Neither the Superior Court of the District of Columbia nor the District of Columbia Court of Appeals are considered part of the federal judiciary as defined in the Rules, and judges confirmed to these courts will not be counted for purposes of resolving this market.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "46 or fewer", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "47 or 48", + "probability": 0.4807692307692307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "49 or 50", + "probability": 0.13461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51 or 52", + "probability": 0.125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53 or 54", + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55 or 56", + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "57 or 58", + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "59 or 60", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "61 or 62", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "63 or more", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:13.201Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 86315 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Leave The Door Open by Silk Sonic win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-10", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Leave The Door Open by Silk Sonic has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 13306 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day median of daily new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the world?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "The future of COVID-19 is an open question, as \"next waves\" remain possible. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO in its global data file (covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv). In the downloaded CSV file, sum the \"New_deaths\" column data by date. Seven-day medians will be calculated from those data. The question will resolve using the data available no later than 1 April 2022, though the question would close early if requisite data indicate a seven-day median greater than the highest bin as of at least 14 calendar days after the date of all pertinent data. At question launch, the WHO data indicated that the highest seven-day median of daily new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the world was 14,529 in January 2021 (goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO_Case_and_Death_Data_as_of_31_March_2021.xlsx).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 1,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1,000 and 3,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 3,000 but fewer than 7,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 7,000 and 15,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 15,000", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:15:34.531Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4 + }, + "extra": { + "superforecastercommentary": "
    " + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1,000, Between 1,000 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 7,000, Between 7,000 and 15,000, inclusive, More than 15,000" + }, + { + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:07.612Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 304, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will UST (TerraUSD) lose its peg by March 1st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ust-terrausd-lose-its-peg-by-march-1st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of TerraUSD (UST) as shown on Coingecko is below $0.90 for 5 or more continuous hours within the market timeframe, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market timeframe spans from January 28 2022 (12:00:00 PM ET) to the resolution time, March 1 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). The resolution source for this market will be https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-usd, and if unavailable, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terrausd/.\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used. \"Continuously for 5 hours\" means all 30 minute candles during the 5 hour timeframe must have high (\"H:\") prices lower than $0.900000.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.06763388076986580526683375441840709", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9323661192301341947331662455815929", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "175", + "liquidity": "23331.07", + "tradevolume": "54050.82", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8370/us-reaction-on-natos-offensive-detonation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nSee also\n---[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) \nIf a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:15.119Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2241-will-kassym-jomart-tokayev-either-flee-kazakhstan-or-cease-to-be-its-president-before-7-july-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-almaty-9da42330ca51c36fe9fd88f9ef35ff4e), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59880166), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/588318-kazakhstan-government-resigns-as-demonstrators-set-fire-to-capital)). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:54.535Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 276, + "numforecasters": 143, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):\n\"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified\"\nElection certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a [\"safe harbor\" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The \"safe harbor\" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.\nIn the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?\nThe question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the \"safe harbor\" deadline. The \"safe harbor\" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:23.861Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 103, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-02T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:40.675Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 157, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7440/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Iowa.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Deidre DeJear", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ras Smith", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cindy Axne", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rob Sand", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:27.018Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 15106 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Deidre DeJear, Ras Smith, Cindy Axne, Rob Sand" + }, + { + "title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:02.243Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 234, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which candidate will receive the most votes in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193139730", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on election day. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoeve receives the most votes in the first round of voting. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the voting for the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.263Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "volume": 4016.46 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron" + }, + { + "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:30.927Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 804, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Nigeria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Nigeria is Buhari, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Nigeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0065593", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9934407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Nigeria", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Buhari", + "month_risk": "0.000385", + "annual_risk": "0.0065593", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "22", + "leader_years": "5.833333", + "country_code": "NGA", + "country_abb": "NIG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\nWill North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n---North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge. \nor\n---North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory. \nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:38.418Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 84, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:30.030Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 100, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.\nIn an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\nIf a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\n--- \nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n--- \nIt resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n--- \nThe question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:05.135Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 208, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-11-17T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any incumbent senator lose a primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7617/Will-any-incumbent-senator-lose-a-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, in the 2022 Midterm primaries, any sitting United States Senator contests and loses a primary election for a United States Senate seat.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for United States Senate elections, only the primary for the party that the Senator caucuses with in the United States Senate shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for United States Senate elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Senator to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate. \nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:34.573Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 14215 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:23.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 152, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will average daily **COVID-19 case numbers in Germany** be above 175,000 for the week ending February 07, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-016", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Germany in the period between in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 is greater than 175,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 07, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 21, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 for Germany as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 20, + "yes_ask": 24, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 7098 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021. \nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state Russia has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that Russia would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:29.899Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:11.188Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 111, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.5384615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.4615384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:35.345Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 137977 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Bioengineering is here defined to include the application of biotechnology to enhance or increase the virulenc, infectiousness or resistance to treatment of naturally ocurring viruses.\nIf the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:32.534Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 299, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-5", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 26854 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected to be the next President of France, as a result of the next French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.168951161", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.7026687593511274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valerie Pecresse", + "probability": 0.1291391233402072, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marine Le Pen", + "probability": 0.059726844544845836, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Zemmour", + "probability": 0.05165564933608289, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", + "probability": 0.013651850181679047, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Christiane Taubira", + "probability": 0.002171885256176212, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francois Asselineau", + "probability": 0.003822518050870133, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yanick Jadot", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Edouard Philippe", + "probability": 0.0023890737817938335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anne Hidalgo", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean Lassalle", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joachim Son-Forget", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xavier Bertrand", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francois Baroin", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ségolène Royal", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florian Philippot", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolas Hulot", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Piolle", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruno Le Maire", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "François Hollande", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruno Retailleau", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michel Barnier", + "probability": 0.0013272632121076853, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Lisnard", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pierre de Villiers", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Philippe de Villiers", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gerald Darmanin", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean Messiha", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean Casteix", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Najat Vallaud-Belkacem", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "François Ruffin", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francois Fillon", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gerard Larcher", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alain Juppe", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Benoit Hamon", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rachida Dati", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Philippe Juvin", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Ciotti", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sandrine Rousseau", + "probability": 0.0009556295127175333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 1084247.12 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valerie Pecresse, Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Christiane Taubira, Francois Asselineau, Yanick Jadot, Edouard Philippe, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Anne Hidalgo, Jean Lassalle, Joachim Son-Forget, Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Arnaud Montebourg, Ségolène Royal, Florian Philippot, Nicolas Hulot, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Eric Piolle, Nicolas Sarkozy, Bruno Le Maire, François Hollande, Bruno Retailleau, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Pierre de Villiers, Philippe de Villiers, Gerald Darmanin, Jean Messiha, Jean Casteix, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, François Ruffin, Francois Fillon, Gerard Larcher, Alain Juppe, Benoit Hamon, Laurent Wauquiez, Rachida Dati, Philippe Juvin, Eric Ciotti, Sandrine Rousseau" + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of Terra ($LUNA) be on March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-terra-luna-be-on-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Terra ($LUNA) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $25.00, and the upper bound is $125.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Long", + "probability": "0.2555422809280754983266419924841012", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Short", + "probability": "0.7444577190719245016733580075158988", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "165", + "liquidity": "5300.00", + "tradevolume": "6906.65", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7685/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Charlie Crist", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Fried", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Annette Taddeo", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:41.449Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 7524 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Annette Taddeo" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:50.436Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 149, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-12T00:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2214-in-dobbs-v-jackson-women-s-health-organization-will-the-supreme-court-explicitly-overrule-roe-v-wade", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The Supreme Court is reviewing what could be the biggest abortion case since its decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-after-15-weeks/), [C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/video/?516168-1/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization-oral-argument&live)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:49.370Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 189, + "numforecasters": 96, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nWill Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the [2022 Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:16.442Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 968, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will The Sandbox or Decentraland have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-sandbox-or-decentraland-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether The Sandbox or Decentraland will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for The Sandbox will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/sandbox), specifically the price of the cheapest Sandbox for sale.\nThe resolution source for Decentraland will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/decentraland), specifically the price of the cheapest Decentraland NFT for sale.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at the initial listing time.\n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Sandbox” if at the check time, the floor price of Sandbox is higher than Decentraland. The market will resolve to “Decentraland” if at the check time the floor price of Decentraland is above Sandbox. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Sandbox", + "probability": "0.2078023333735168320114963891980868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Decentraland", + "probability": "0.7921976666264831679885036108019132", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "61", + "liquidity": "3600.00", + "tradevolume": "6240.52", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sandbox, Decentraland" + }, + { + "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:51.038Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 84, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2252-will-major-league-baseball-s-mlb-s-opening-day-occur-on-31-march-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33111294/mlb-players-association-make-counteroffer-league-monday-meeting), [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-why-these-dates-should-serve-as-deadlines-for-full-spring-training-regular-opening-day-and-more/), [MLBPA](https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf)). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 ([MLB](https://www.mlb.com/schedule/2022-03-31)). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:34.139Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasters": 38, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9121/tether-to-collapse-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_%28cryptocurrency%29) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2022?\nThe question will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on [FTX](https://ftx.com/trade/USDT/USD). \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on FTX, Binance and Coinbase will be suspended for more than 7 days. \nThe question will also resolve positively in case all the 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2022. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2023. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:21.751Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 64, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-30T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403/25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nBy 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing. Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:30.590Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:16:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:16:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8499/libor-end-date-extension/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.\nIn the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).\nContracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a \"synthetic\" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until 2023-01-01, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from 2023-07-01.\nWill there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by 2023-06-30, [ICE Benchmark Association](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor) announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This will still be the case even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:55.834Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-04T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) \nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:12.494Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 13, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7704/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.9207920792079208, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:41.997Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 5999 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)\nWill >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there has been at least one offensive nuclear detonation of nuclear weapons owned by each of at least 3 countries. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon owned by each of China, North Korea, and the US are offensively detonated, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nSee also\n--- \n[Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDifferent countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:10.221Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 11, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:53.690Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 165, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=51 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A171", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **filibuster** be weakened by February 14?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FBUSTER-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the U.S. Senate changes its rules or precedent to lower the threshold for cloture for any legislative action by February 14, 2022 whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn, then the Contract resolve to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No. Changes to reconciliation rules are not included. Please see FBUSTER in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: U.S. Senate rules and precedent according to Senate.gov or Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 1, + "yes_ask": 2, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 76654 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Brian Kemp", + "probability": 0.47115384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Perdue", + "probability": 0.4423076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vernon Jones", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Collins", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Herschel Walker", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marjorie Greene", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ames Barnett", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kandiss Taylor", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:58.494Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 647447 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, David Perdue, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Marjorie Greene, Ames Barnett, Kandiss Taylor" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:29.515Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 142, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\nSputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n[...]\nThe satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race).\nWill there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?\nThere is said to be an \"AI Sputnik moment\" if ANY of the following come true before 2050,\n--- \nA major technology company (>50 billion dollar market cap, in 2021 US dollars, right before the announcement) announces the creation of an AI system. Upon the announcement, their stock price skyrockets by over 100% compared to its previous value within 7 days, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock price is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nNews of an AI development triggers the head of government of the top 2 nations by GDP nominal to give a public speech regarding the ramifications of this particular AI development, within two weeks of the initial news reports.\n--- \nThe Nasdaq Composite (which is currently heavily weighted towards companies in the information technology sector) rises over 30% in the course of a single week, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock prices is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nThe [Google Trends monitor for artificial intelligence](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz) shows that interest in artificial intelligence rises by over 100% relative to of its previous value, compared to the week prior (using the resolution at 12 months, as currently displayed by the Google Trends widget). If Google Trends changes their functionality or methodology dramatically (as determined by Metaculus admins), then this condition can no longer trigger a positive resolution.\n--- \nPractically all reliable media outlets are referring to an AI development as an AI Sputnik moment, as referring to the historical Sputnik 1 satellite.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:42.885Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 60, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.5% or more in January?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-annual-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-5p5-or-more-in-january", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from January 2021 to January 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in January 2022 is 5.5 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for January 2022 is scheduled for February 23.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nNote, that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2156331126226026021300602830158881", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7843668873773973978699397169841119", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "32", + "liquidity": "3059.31", + "tradevolume": "5247.20", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Syria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Syria is Bashar al-Assad, who has been in power for 20.8 years. Syria has a hybrid regime type which has lasted for 58 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.011449", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.988551, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Syria", + "regime_type": "HYBRID", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Bashar al-Assad", + "month_risk": "0.0006279", + "annual_risk": "0.011449", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "58", + "leader_years": "20.75", + "country_code": "SYR", + "country_abb": "SYR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Cheri Beasley", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Jackson", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Erica Smith", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Lee Watkins", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heath Shuler", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:30.886Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 36469 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Cheri Beasley, Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:15.450Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 249, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:30.020Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 232, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [meat or dairy tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax) is a tax levied on the purchase or consumption of meat and/or other animal products to disincentivize the production or consumption of meat products. \nMeat and dairy production is known to be a disproportional contributor of emissions, attributing approximately half of food-derived GHG emissions, while only accounting for one-third of the dietary energy intake worldwide ([Broeks et al., 2020](https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-08590-z)). Hence, many have advocated for a meat production or consumption tax (see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax#Proponents)).\nWill a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if a meat or dairy consumption tax is imposed by the US federal government, or by any country that is a EU member state (at the time when it imposes such a tax), by 2023-01-01 at 12:00PM EST. \n--- \nQualifying taxes include [excise tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excise) (i.e. a per unit tax that applies to a narrow range of products), or a [sales tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sales_tax) (i.e. a tax levied on the sale of a good to its final end user and is charged every time that item is sold retail). \n--- \nThe tax must be applied to the meat of any of the following: cattle, pig, sheep, chicken; or to cow milk \n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the consumption tax is applied nation-wide, and that the tax goes into effect by the resolution date.\n--- \nAn increase in VAT specific to meat and dairy products in any member state of the EU will also count towards positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:15.244Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 146, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:35:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:35:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in France in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of France is Macron, who has been in power for 3.8 years. France has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 62 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0018088", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9981912, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "France", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Macron", + "month_risk": "0.0001477", + "annual_risk": "0.0018088", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "62", + "leader_years": "3.833333", + "country_code": "FRA", + "country_abb": "FRN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than France, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-france-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than France, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1562389731971507831090462925598505", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8437610268028492168909537074401495", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "59", + "liquidity": "1120.83", + "tradevolume": "1579.21", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:44.193Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 209, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next James Bond be female?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8315/next-james-bond-female/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\nIt is widely understood that No Time To Die will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n---[\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/) \n---[\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/) \nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)\nWill the next James Bond be female?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next action film released by Eon films in the James Bond universe with the main character being a female intelligence officer.\nThis question should retroactively close 1 week before a media report around casting is confirmed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:39.049Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 57, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:13.525Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 574, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? ", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, [a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37430824) as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.\nFollowing the attack, [Russia ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN11R238?il=0)and the [United States](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/syria-ceasefire-is-over-says-countrys-military) blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The [UN](http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/syria-unsarc-convoy-hit-urum-al-kubra-northwest-aleppo-city) and [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/20/syria-investigate-attack-un-aid-convoy) both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the [collapse](http://time.com/4500719/syria-ceasefire-aid-convoy-aleppo/) of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.", + "probability": 0.416998344156324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.", + "probability": 0.3996231698874853, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.", + "probability": 0.12766875086273002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.", + "probability": 0.051659883539936315, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The US Air Force carried out the attack.", + "probability": 0.0040498515535244296, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack., The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly., The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack., Opposition ground forces carried out the attack., The US Air Force carried out the attack." + }, + { + "title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.\nWill the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?\nResolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news source\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:16.825Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 56, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:32.955Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 62, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\nWill the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:13.657Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:01.219Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 136, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8074/existence-of-macrofauna-on-an-icy-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. It would be possible that such a mission could be equipped to not only detect microbial life but also any existing macrofauna.\nIf we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?\nThe question resolves positively if at least two national space agencies publicly state they believe the existence of macrofauna native to the ocean of an icy moon has been confirmed. Confirmed life may be currently alive, or dead (such that we find fossilized remains). Discoveries of life and macrofauna need not occur at the same time, nor in the same place.\nIf we do not discover any evidence of life on an icy moon by 2200, this question will resolve ambiguously. If we discover life on an icy moon but do not find macrofauna, this question resolves negative. If we discover life somewhere else (for example, on Mars) but find no life on an icy moon, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor the purpose of this question, \"macrofauna\" is defined as any multicellular organism larger than the approximate minimum resolution of the naked eye (0.1 mm). In other words, any multicellular organism that would be retained on a 0.1 mm mesh.\nAn \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:03.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 36, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Pakistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Pakistan is Imran Khan, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Pakistan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.010917", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.989083, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Pakistan", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Imran Khan", + "month_risk": "0.0019051", + "annual_risk": "0.010917", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.08", + "regime_years": "13", + "leader_years": "2.583333", + "country_code": "PAK", + "country_abb": "PAK" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=90% COVID vaccination among US age 16+ population on 7 Nov 2021", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A165", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-05-07T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:00.965Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 310, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 150,000 on March 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-150000-on-march-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 150,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.380780918294320721002040717994496", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.619219081705679278997959282005504", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "34", + "liquidity": "6541.36", + "tradevolume": "2250.15", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:18.234Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 133, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Donald J Trump, Ron Desantis, or Mike Pence", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A183", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2188-which-publicly-traded-us-company-will-have-the-highest-end-of-day-market-capitalization-as-of-30-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using \"Market Cap\" data as reported by companiesmarketcap.com at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 June 2022 ([CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Alphabet (Google)", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amazon", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Apple", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Microsoft", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another company", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:30.416Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 183, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Another company" + }, + { + "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:08.099Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 225, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the French presidential election of 2022, who will be the candidate of Les Républicains (right)?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Will be considered the \"candidate\" of Les Républicains (LR) whoever receives the party's nomination, or baring that, the party's official support on the first round of the election in April 2022. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Michel Barnier", + "probability": 0.6019417475728155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xavier Bertrand", + "probability": 0.30097087378640774, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Ciotti", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Philippe Juvin", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Denis Payre", + "probability": 0.03883495145631068, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valérie Pécresse", + "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No one", + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michel Barnier, Xavier Bertrand, Eric Ciotti, Philippe Juvin, Denis Payre, Valérie Pécresse, Someone else, No one" + }, + { + "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:31.021Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 89, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nWill there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2019-01-01 and 2050-01-01, both of these conditions are true:\n1-- \nThere is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.\n[2021-11-24]: Edited to clarify the time constraints.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:58.200Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 812, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Rwanda in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Rwanda is Paul Kagame, who has been in power for 26.7 years. Rwanda has a party-military regime type which has lasted for 27 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0207527", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9792473, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Rwanda", + "regime_type": "Party-Military", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Paul Kagame", + "month_risk": "0.0007518", + "annual_risk": "0.0207527", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "27", + "leader_years": "26.66667", + "country_code": "RWA", + "country_abb": "RWA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2048-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-headline-inflation-in-the-us-as-measured-by-the-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in July 2022 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For May 2021, the rate was 5.0%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 0.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5.0% or more", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:53.090Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1236, + "numforecasters": 551, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.0%, Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:47.286Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 143, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if Sen. Lisa Murkowski is the winner of the 2022 general election for United States Senator from Alaska. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:21.627Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 128242 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Andorra in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Andorra is Espot Zamora, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Andorra has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 39 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0014699", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9985301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Andorra", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Espot Zamora", + "month_risk": "0.0001244", + "annual_risk": "0.0014699", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "39", + "leader_years": "1.833333", + "country_code": "AND", + "country_abb": "AND" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8847/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-the-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. Its co-founder, Josh Tetrick, hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\" Another San Francisco-based company, Wildtype, expects commercial sales of its cultured salmon in 2022. Its officials say they will be ready to apply for U.S. regulatory approval to sell its salmon as soon as the USDA and FDA publish the protocols.\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the US approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:25.050Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 42, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Libya in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Libya is Fayez al-Sarraj, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Libya has a warlordism regime type which has lasted for 10 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0216252", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9783748, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Libya", + "regime_type": "Warlordism", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Fayez al-Sarraj", + "month_risk": "0.0005241", + "annual_risk": "0.0216252", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "10", + "leader_years": "5", + "country_code": "LBY", + "country_abb": "LIB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805/yankees-win-the-2032-world-series-6-games/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?\nWill the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?\nThe question resolves positively if the MLB annual championship that occurs in the year 2032 is won by a team named \"New York Yankees\" in exactly 6 games (e.g. the Yankees win 4 games, and their opponent wins 2).\n--- \nIf a team that was formerly named \"New York Yankees\" wins in 6 games, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf a team with a name that still refers New York city or state wins in 6 games (e.g. Brooklyn Yankees, New York State Yankees), this question resolves positively.\n--- \nIf the MLB changes its rules such that the World Series is played for fewer than 6 games, or more than 13 games (so it would be impossible to win in 6 games), this question resolves negatively.\n--- \nIf the MLB folds into smaller leagues prior to the 2032 World Series, this question resolves negatively.\n--- \nIf the MLB folds into a larger league prior to the 2032 World Series (such as a [Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)), and a team named \"New York Yankees\" still exists, if that team wins the World Series of the larger league in 6 games, this question resolves positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:01.742Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:18.543Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 269, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:37.454Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 112, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8475/hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\nOK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\nI agree to this bet.\nWill Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:19.563Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-income-taxes-rise-for-the-highest-tax-bracket-in-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if a bill that has the effect of raising the top bracket federal personal income tax rate above 37.0% becomes law before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, other provisions that may affect the amount of personal tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate are not considered in this market. \n\nNote also, the increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of personal income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not considered in this market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4043339175290104748222681971057299", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5956660824709895251777318028942701", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "92", + "liquidity": "1504.12", + "tradevolume": "4040.08", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. \nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. \n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)\nWill a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:33.587Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 152, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-19T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:40.378Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 349, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:55.414Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 105, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:26.841Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 271, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ron DeSantis win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ron-desantis-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ronald Dion de Santis wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.298057832069822183229729808836076", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.701942167930177816770270191163924", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "39", + "liquidity": "2902.41", + "tradevolume": "1028.58", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.8%?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt8", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.8%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.527657204120441494990389515619128", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.472342795879558505009610484380872", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "64", + "liquidity": "50.00", + "tradevolume": "14880.69", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Joe Biden", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A184", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "Much higher than conventional wisdom", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2222-how-many-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-will-be-registered-in-the-uk-in-2022-according-to-the-society-of-motor-manufacturers-and-traders-smmt", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using the \"Year to date\" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month ([SMMT - Car Registrations](https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/), [SMMT](https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/)). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 ([SMMT - News 6 December 2021](https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-doubles-but-new-car-market-remains-well-adrift-of-pre-pandemic-levels/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 150,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "350,000 or more", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:38.600Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasters": 56, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000, Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:05.178Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 61, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7250/ban-on-genetically-unmodified-humans/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with.\nBy the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2100, any jurisdiction passes any law(s) requiring all births to eliminate or promote certain gene(s) through gene editing techniques. \"Gene editing techniques\" means here [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing), or any techniques which directly and selectively modify targeted genes. The genetic engineering techniques may occur at any time in the individual's lifespan, including before birth, after birth, or before conception. This question will only include jurisdictions which govern a population of at least 1 million people at the time the law is in effect.\nLaws only requiring genetic testing or sterilizing/forbidding reproduction by individuals or couples carrying certain genes are not included for the purposes of this question. Forms of artificial selection such as [embryo selection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation#Embryo_selection), or abortion/[extermination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide) of non-compliant genomes are not included for the purposes of this question.\nTo resolve this question, the relevant law must be enforced for at least one birth. That is, if a law is passed but struck down by a court before it is applied, or if such a law is passed but never enforced, this will not resolve the question. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:32.387Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Josh Mandel", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A84", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2155-when-will-the-government-of-ontario-cease-to-require-people-to-show-proof-of-covid-19-vaccination-to-use-indoor-areas-of-restaurants", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases ([Ontario.ca](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/proof-covid-19-vaccination), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-cases-data-september-14-1.6174855), [CTV News](https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-s-vaccine-passport-system-begins-and-this-is-what-you-need-to-know-1.5591806)). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 19 November 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 12 February 2022", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:43.533Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasters": 103, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 November 2021, Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022, Not before 12 February 2022" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 252 million Americans be **vaccinated for COVID-19** by February 9, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VAXX-048", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If over 252 million Americans are reported as vaccinated for COVID-19 by February 9, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see VAXX in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 9, 2022 or February 16, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 2, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 3072 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:05.226Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 102, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win AZ 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A159", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2024 is larger than one hundred. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2024, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2024. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nResolution criteria will come from credible sources as of January 31, 2024.\nSee also\n---[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/) \nn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:13.002Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-35 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7676/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-35-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirty-Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Greg Casar", + "probability": 0.8725490196078431, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Viagran", + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eddie Rodriguez", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carla-Joy Sisco", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:21.425Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 6692 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Casar, Rebecca Viagran, Eddie Rodriguez, Carla-Joy Sisco" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nWill humans go extinct by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:46.789Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 883, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by March 31st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-march-31st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by March 31st, 2022. \n\nIf Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before March 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nPre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by March 31, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5891526633610045490221701405291271", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4108473366389954509778298594708729", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "69", + "liquidity": "5468.21", + "tradevolume": "5873.58", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:07.148Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 118, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8649/alien-origin-of-interstellar-object-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The first discovered interstellar object (1I`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent [extraterrestrial](https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358274551) civilization. While the majority of the scientific community believes that `Oumuamua originated through [natural](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0816-x) astrophysical processes, the formation mechanism of such objects remains unknown. This question is part of a fortified essay on interstellar objects.\nBy 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least two of the following agencies (or their successors) releases a statement that confirms an extraterrestrial, intelligent origin of an interstellar object in our Solar System.\n---United States Department of Defense (Space Force, Air Force, etc.) \n---NASA \n---European Space Agency (ESA) \n---Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) \n---Roscosmos \n---Chinese National Space Administration \nFor the purposes of this question, an \"interstellar object\" will be defined as an object with the \"I\" [designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) by the [Minor Planet Center ](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/), or as an object with an origin outside the solar system according to major government space agencies.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:45.226Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2063-07-02T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)\nWill the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:18.890Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in India from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:59.702Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 28, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:33.584Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 274, + "numforecasters": 55, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:10.610Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 128, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8380/test-of-nuclear-weapon-above-30-mt-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 there are reports of such a test by reputable sources.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:07.342Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:00.638Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 21, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:54.662Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 171, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2242-before-4-january-2023-will-a-united-states-supreme-court-seat-be-vacated", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/09/09/1035092720/progressives-want-justice-stephen-breyer-to-retire-his-response-not-yet), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/politics/stephen-breyer-gop-blockade-biden-supreme-court-pick/index.html)). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/oconnor070105.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:52.909Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 257, + "numforecasters": 103, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some \"other risk\" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9051/other-risk-to-cause-near-extinction/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) that is caused by \"other\" causes does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global catastrophe caused by \"other risks\" occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:01.368Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the gender be of the candiate that wins the 2024 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176193", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Male", + "probability": 0.702576112412178, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Female", + "probability": 0.297423887587822, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "volume": 8377.56 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Male, Female" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:54.296Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 211, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Slovakia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Slovakia is Matovic, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Slovakia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0027612", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9972388, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Slovakia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Matovic", + "month_risk": "0.0002235", + "annual_risk": "0.0027612", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "1", + "country_code": "SVK", + "country_abb": "SLO" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many San Francisco school board members recalled?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7596/How-many-San-Francisco-school-board-members-recalled", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of the below-listed members of the San Francisco Unified School District Board who are recalled in the February 2022 recall election. For purposes of this market, a member whose position is vacated prior to the recall election shall be considered to have been recalled, regardless of the existence or outcome of the recall election. \nFor purposes of this market, the three members being considered for recall are Gabriela López, Alison Collins, and Faauuga Moliga. No other members shall be considered for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Zero", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "One", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Two", + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Three", + "probability": 0.8269230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:08.114Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 9061 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two, Three" + }, + { + "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the America COMPETES Act by April 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7716/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-America-COMPETES-Act-by-April-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the US House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 26, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of a bill that provides funding to support US semiconductor manufacturing and appropriates funds to a federal office tasked with promoting the resilience of supply chains. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website house.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"220 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"253 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "220 or fewer", + "probability": 0.33663366336633666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "221 to 224", + "probability": 0.42574257425742573, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "225 to 228", + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "229 to 232", + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "233 to 236", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "237 to 240", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "241 to 244", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "245 to 248", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "249 to 252", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "253 or more", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:10.511Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 12459 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "220 or fewer, 221 to 224, 225 to 228, 229 to 232, 233 to 236, 237 to 240, 241 to 244, 245 to 248, 249 to 252, 253 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:23.071Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 162, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:05.386Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 332, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "China and Japan were last at war during World War II.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Japanese and Chinese forces.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:51.732Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 65, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8880/omicron-dominant-variant-dec-31-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of December 7, 2021, GISAID, a global sequencing database reports that the variant of concern (VOC) called Delta by the World Health Organisation is the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2. In the seven days to December 5, 2021, 6,160 of 6,371 (98%) SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced and submitted to GISAID were identified as the Delta variant.\nWill Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?\nThe [GISAID variant tracker ](https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/) will be consulted on January 10, 2023 for the share of SARS-CoV-2 variants sequenced in the week to December 31, 2022 for the share of global sequences by each VOC. If the top variant's name includes \"omicron\" by the resolution source, then this will resolve positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:56.082Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 372, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:01.920Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 279, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:09.360Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 125, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:03.682Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 15, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Anthony Fauci remain NIAID director through the end of the year?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7702/Will-Anthony-Fauci-remain-NIAID-director-through-the-end-of-the-year", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dr. Anthony Fauci holds the office of Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:37.497Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 18033 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will The Kid LAROI win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-7", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If The Kid LAROI has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 22816 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/amazon-is-hiring-a-digital-currency-and-blockchain-expert.html), [City A.M.](https://www.cityam.com/amazon-definitely-lining-up-bitcoin-payments-and-token-confirms-insider/), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/amazon-no-we-have-no-plans-to-accept-bitcoin-payments)). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:42.118Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 654, + "numforecasters": 306, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8135/2-states-increase-nuclear-arsenals-by-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nCurrently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nWill at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the FAS website shows, at any time between 2021-10-01 and 2023-12-31, that two or more states each have arsenals 25% higher than the estimates given above (i.e., 25% higher than FAS's estimates from May 2021). This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If a state that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gains an arsenal of at least one assembled nuclear weapon, that would be counted as a state increasing its stockpile size by at least 25%.\nIn the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear stockpile\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.\nIf FAS publish no estimates during the whole of 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nNo attempt will be made to distinguish actual increases in arsenal sizes from increases in estimates due to FAS changing their estimation methods or learning new information about what was already true in May 2021. This is mostly for simplicity, but also partly because some implications are the same whether (a) actual increases occur or (b) our current information is an underestimate. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:34.149Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 80, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Nan Whaley", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Cranley", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Pepper", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emilia Sykes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:15.851Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 12211 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nan Whaley, John Cranley, David Pepper, Emilia Sykes" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Botswana in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Botswana is Mokgweetsi Masisi, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Botswana has a party regime type which has lasted for 55 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0062575", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9937425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Botswana", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mokgweetsi Masisi", + "month_risk": "0.0003736", + "annual_risk": "0.0062575", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "55", + "leader_years": "2.916667", + "country_code": "BWA", + "country_abb": "BOT" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Singapore in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Singapore is Lee Hsien Loong, who has been in power for 16.6 years. Singapore has a party regime type which has lasted for 56 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007906", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9992094, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Singapore", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lee Hsien Loong", + "month_risk": "0.0000654", + "annual_risk": "0.0007906", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "56", + "leader_years": "16.58333", + "country_code": "SGP", + "country_abb": "SIN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the IL-06 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7675/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-IL-06-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Illinois' Sixth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Sean Casten", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marie Newman", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:17.365Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 6157 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sean Casten, Marie Newman" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in United Arab Emirates in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of United Arab Emirates is Khalifa Al Nahayan, who has been in power for 16.3 years. United Arab Emirates has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0036151", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9963849, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "United Arab Emirates", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Khalifa Al Nahayan", + "month_risk": "0.0002047", + "annual_risk": "0.0036151", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "50", + "leader_years": "16.33333", + "country_code": "ARE", + "country_abb": "UAE" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/939-will-the-world-health-organization-declare-a-new-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-in-the-next-four-quarters", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. We previously asked a version of this question for the year-period beginning August 1, 2021. The final consensus forecast for that period was 36%. Context. The International Health Regulations (2005) empower the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), defined as \"an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.\" An IHR Emergency Committee comprising a panel of experts advises the WHO Director-General on potential PHEICs. The WHO Director-General makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.Since 2007, the WHO has made six PHEIC declarations: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013–2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018–2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).Resolution details. This question resolves based on an official declaration by the WHO. Question format. This question asks about the four-quarter period (year) beginning with the following quarter. For example, a forecast made on November 15 (Q4) is forecasting January (Q1) through December (Q4) of the following year. It rolls over at the beginning of every quarter: January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.***This question was proposed by P Alex Demarsh (palexd). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:25.808Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 241, + "numforecasters": 134, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9029/2022-winter-olympics-completed-as-scheduled/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics to 2021, marking the first time since 1992 in which the Winter and Summer Olympics would be held less than six months apart from each other.\nThe 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to take place from 4 to 20 February 2022 and are scheduled to include a record 109 events.\nWill the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays?\nThis question resolves positively if all of:\n1-- \nthe Opening Ceremony takes place on February 4th, 2022\n2-- \nthe Closing Ceremony takes place on February 20th, 2022\n3-- \nat least 95% of all 109 events are completed in between these two events\nOtherwise it resolves negatively.\nAn \"event\" is considered complete if medals are awarded. Delays of individual events do not cause a negative resolution as long as all events are completed before the Closing Ceremony. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:25.242Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 227, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be on Feb. 4?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7723/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Feb-4", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below. The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled \"Polling Data\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html (\"the Settlement Source\"), at the row labeled as as \"RCP Average.\" \nAny number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled \"RCP Average\" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/4/2022 11:00:00 AM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "39.7% or lower", + "probability": 0.008771929824561405, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "39.8% to 40.0%", + "probability": 0.008771929824561405, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "40.1% to 40.3%", + "probability": 0.008771929824561405, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "40.4% to 40.6%", + "probability": 0.026315789473684213, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "40.7% to 40.9%", + "probability": 0.2631578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.0% to 41.2%", + "probability": 0.5087719298245614, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.3% to 41.5%", + "probability": 0.14035087719298248, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.6% to 41.8%", + "probability": 0.026315789473684213, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.9% or higher", + "probability": 0.008771929824561405, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:30.616Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 275320 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "39.7% or lower, 39.8% to 40.0%, 40.1% to 40.3%, 40.4% to 40.6%, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% or higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:22.750Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 220, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:21.217Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 26165 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:02.466Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by June 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-june-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to June 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8368534021326376547032655421156627", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1631465978673623452967344578843373", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "19", + "liquidity": "1000.00", + "tradevolume": "2746.76", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nWill the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:19.872Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 410, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Germany, which political coalition will form the next government?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "CDU/CSU = right/center-right FDP = liberalism SPD = center-left Green = ecology Linke = extreme left ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "CDU/CSU-Green-FDP", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "CDU/CSU-SPD-Green", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "SPD-FDP-Green", + "probability": 0.9405940594059407, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "SPD-Linke-Green", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Other", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "CDU/CSU-Green-FDP, CDU/CSU-SPD-Green, CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP, SPD-FDP-Green, SPD-Linke-Green, Other" + }, + { + "title": "Labor Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178911257", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Anthony Albanese", + "probability": 0.7563068695220272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tanya Plibersek", + "probability": 0.013109319071715139, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Chalmers", + "probability": 0.12289986629732944, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Marles", + "probability": 0.04139784970015307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Bowen", + "probability": 0.043697730239050464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jason Clare", + "probability": 0.010487455257372113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joel Fitzgibbon", + "probability": 0.012100909912352437, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "volume": 7725.5 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Jim Chalmers, Richard Marles, Chris Bowen, Jason Clare, Joel Fitzgibbon" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.\nWill the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?\nThe question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:21.241Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 45, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-24T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:35.066Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 236, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104-will-sir-keir-starmer-face-a-formal-challenge-for-the-leadership-of-the-labour-party-before-4-april-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-wins-contest-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-11968442), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-be-reinstated-as-labour-mp-under-leftwing-challenge-to-starmer), [Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377)). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs ([Institute for Government](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests), [Labour Party Rule Book 2020](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Rule-Book-2020.pdf), see Chapter 4, Clause II).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:38.058Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 294, + "numforecasters": 141, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:34.025Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 451, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/gc-to-be-caused-by-nanotech-if-it-occurs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:27.256Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 218, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-06-01T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:34.315Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 132, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ds win 51 or more Senate seats in 2022 Senate election", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A164", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.\nWill there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation other than Good Ventures, sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over 250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example. \nA donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-28: clarified that Good Ventures doesn't count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:04.718Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 98, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\nThe day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\nOur custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:25.830Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 139, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.42574257425742573, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:58.036Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 137253 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2245-will-employees-at-amazon-s-bessemer-alabama-warehouse-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-unionize-in-their-next-scheduled-election", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/amazon-union-election-in-alabama-to-begin-in-february.html), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/11/22878457/amazon-bessemer-alabama-union-election-redo-february-fourth)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:47.527Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasters": 80, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Trinidad and Tobago in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Trinidad and Tobago is Rowley, who has been in power for 5.5 years. Trinidad and Tobago has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0033668", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9966332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Trinidad and Tobago", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Rowley", + "month_risk": "0.0002709", + "annual_risk": "0.0033668", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "59", + "leader_years": "5.5", + "country_code": "TTO", + "country_abb": "TRI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:31.831Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 150, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:37.538Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 119818 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"\nWill there be a US-Russia war by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if there's a war between the US and Russia by 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:43.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 156, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:58:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:50.464Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 125, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Dominica in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Dominica is Roosevelt Skerrit, who has been in power for 17.2 years. Dominica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0048167", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9951833, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Dominica", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Roosevelt Skerrit", + "month_risk": "0.0003992", + "annual_risk": "0.0048167", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "17.16667", + "country_code": "DMA", + "country_abb": "DMA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:25.029Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Czech Republic in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Czech Republic is Andrej Babis, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Czech Republic has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0031552", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9968448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Czech Republic", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Andrej Babis", + "month_risk": "0.0002207", + "annual_risk": "0.0031552", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "3.25", + "country_code": "CZE", + "country_abb": "CZR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:29.020Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 2107, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:30.244Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 252, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9311/ron-johnson-wins-2022-wisconsin-us-senate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) is the senior US senator from Wisconsin. He was first elected to the senate in 2010, [defeating Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold (D) 51.9% to 47.0%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/wisconsin.html), after Feingold had served the position since 1993. In the 2016 election, Johnson surprised the pollsters and [defeated Feingold once again with 50.2% of the vote to Feingold's 46.8%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/wisconsin-senate-johnson-feingold).\nDespite the 2016 polls, based on which [fivethirtyeight (81.7%)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/), [The Upshot (66%)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html), and [RealClearPolitics (-2.7%)](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html) expected Feingold to win, Johnson won instead. \nRecently, Wisconsin has seen large polling errors towards the presidential Democratic candidate in [2016 (538: 6.1% error towards Clinton)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/) and in [2020 (538: 7.9% towards Biden)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/).\nAs of January 2022, [Cook Political has indicated Wisconsin is one of its six state \"toss-up\" 2022 senate elections](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings). \nMany consider [Johnson a staunch Trump supporter](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/01/09/republican-u-s-sen-ron-johnson-announces-run-re-election/8797338002/).\nWill Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?\nThis question shall resolve positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates Ron Johnson has won the 2022 US Senate election for Wisconsin by March 2023. The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:31:22.214Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-02T08:07:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-11T09:07:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ted Budd", + "probability": 0.6036036036036035, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pat McCrory", + "probability": 0.34234234234234234, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Burr", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Walker", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lara Trump", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Forest", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Meadows", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Robinson", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:13.814Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 159713 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Richard Burr, Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows, Mark Robinson" + }, + { + "title": "Which NHL team will win the 2022 Stanley Cup Final?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2178-which-nhl-team-will-win-the-2022-stanley-cup-final", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 30 June 2022 ([Sportsnaut](https://sportsnaut.com/2021-2022-nhl-season-important-dates/), [NHL](https://www.nhl.com/standings/2021/division)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Boston Bruins", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carolina Hurricanes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Colorado Avalanche", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Edmonton Oilers", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florida Panthers", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Minnesota Wild", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "New York Rangers", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "St. Louis Blues", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vegas Golden Knights", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Washington Capitals", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another team", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:55.422Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasters": 25, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals, Another team" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Barbados in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Barbados is Mia Mottley, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Barbados has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 54 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0035787", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9964213, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Barbados", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mia Mottley", + "month_risk": "0.0003005", + "annual_risk": "0.0035787", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "54", + "leader_years": "2.833333", + "country_code": "BRB", + "country_abb": "BAR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's June meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-007", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's June 15, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their June 15, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.030000000000000027, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 96, + "yes_ask": 98, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 3842 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 91 million Americans have **COVID-19 boosters** by February 9, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/BOOSTER-017", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If over 91 million fully vaccinated Americans are reported as having received a booster shot for COVID-19 by February 9, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see BOOSTER in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 9, 2022 or February 16, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of fully vaccinated people who have received a booster shot for COVID-19 as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 20, + "yes_ask": 24, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 5684 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2157-before-1-july-2022-will-the-cptpp-commission-decide-to-commence-the-accession-process-for-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-and-or-taiwan", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Taiwan, under the name of \"The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu,\" and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/taiwan-applies-to-join-pacific-trade-deal-just-days-after-china), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/23/china-moves-to-join-the-cptpp-but-dont-expect-a-fast-pass/), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/will-china-actually-join-the-cptpp/)). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom ([Institute for Government](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-cptpp), [Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade](https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership), [Global Affairs Canada](https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/decision_cptpp_uk_request-decision_ptpgp_ru.aspx?lang=eng)). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, but only for the PRC", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, but only for Taiwan", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, for both", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:39.038Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasters": 53, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, but only for the PRC, Yes, but only for Taiwan, Yes, for both, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Poland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Poland is Duda, who has been in power for 5.6 years. Poland has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0030799", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9969201, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Poland", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Duda", + "month_risk": "0.0002473", + "annual_risk": "0.0030799", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "32", + "leader_years": "5.583333", + "country_code": "POL", + "country_abb": "POL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:53.706Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 116, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Russia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Russia is Putin, who has been in power for 21.2 years. Russia has a personal regime type which has lasted for 27 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0036597", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9963403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Russia", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Putin", + "month_risk": "0.0003441", + "annual_risk": "0.0036597", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "27", + "leader_years": "21.16667", + "country_code": "RUS", + "country_abb": "RUS" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:58.172Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 379, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A COVID variant is declared a VOHC by 2022 Mar 1", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A255", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-11-27T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Uruguay in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Uruguay is Luis Pou, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Uruguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 36 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0043207", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9956793, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Uruguay", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Luis Pou", + "month_risk": "0.0003646", + "annual_risk": "0.0043207", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "36", + "leader_years": "1", + "country_code": "URY", + "country_abb": "URU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations. \nWill an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. \nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:29.941Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 142, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:38:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:38:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due \"other risks\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/gc-caused-by-other-if-gc-occurs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nThe Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\", i.e. other than those listed above?\nThe question resolves: \n--- \npositively if a global catastrophe occurs that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100 and none of the listed questions resolve positively\n--- \nambiguously if a global catastrophe occurs and any of the listed questions resolve ambiguously\n--- \nambiguously if no global catastrophe occurs\n--- \nnegatively if a global catastrophe occurs and are attributatable to any of the listed causes, such that at least one of them resolves positively\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:56.246Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 20, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit was the decision to [“establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, [and] Lithuania”](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm) in the face of up to 50,000 Russian troops being able to be deployed [within a few days](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.).\nThe Russian annexation of Crimea and support of separatist forces in Donbass has, at least in part, been attributed and explained by the high number of ethnic Russians living in these areas. According to estimations there are roughly [1 million ethnic Russians spread out over all three Baltic countries](http://www.hscentre.org/uncategorized/hard-and-soft-power-an-analysis-of-russian-influence-in-the-baltic-states/) , directly along the WMD (Russia’s Western Military District). Importantly, the fraction of ethnic Russians is significantly higher in the Eastern-most municipalities in all three countries and ranges from 5.8% (Lithuania) to 26.9% (Latvia) of the total population to over 40% (Lithuania) or 60% (Latvia/Estonia) in some [Eastern municipalities](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6cb4f0a7dcd64278b52840a7dc364127). This is a pattern akin to that of Donbass (and in some aspects to Crimea) that provides some prima facie reason to expect Russian involvement of some kind or another. \nA [2018 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/three-escalation-scenarios-pub-75882) has outlined three escalation scenarios: deliberate escalation (in which Russia attempts a land grab in the Baltics), inadvertent escalation (in which Russia capitalises on a domestic crisis and is then driven by domestic pressure to threaten to intervene), and accidental escalation (in which an intervention is caused by an unrelated accident). Even though each individual scenario is quite unlikely, the implications are significant, especially with regard to the potential of a nuclear escalation, and because [“safeguarding the security of the Baltic states is particularly important for NATO’s credibility and for Europe’s security”](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.) more generally.\nWill Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russia annexes any territory belonging (as of December 2021) to the countries of Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia before January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports. This will resolve positively if this annexation occurs for any length of time. This question will resolve negatively if Russia does not annex any such territory. For the purposes of this question, \"annexation\" means the posession or control of a territory, by means of force or without the consent of the Baltic nation's government.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:19.596Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 94, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will **net neutrality** be reimposed by June 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NETNEU-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "There are two possible ways for the Contract to resolve to Yes. Either is sufficient.\n\nOption One: If a bill, rule, ruling or order reclassifies Broadband Internet access service as a common carrier, telecommunications service, or public utility under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, then the Contract resolves to Yes.\n\nOption Two: If a bill, rule, ruling or order contains a no blocking rule, a no throttling rule, and a no paid prioritization rule, then the Contract resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease see NETNEU in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. NETNEU in the Rulebook also contains far more details about these two options, as well as extensive examples from past bills and rules that may assist the member in understanding how the market is determined.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Congressional bills that have become law between Listing and June 01, 2022 (inclusive) according to Congress.gov, and rules, rulings and orders from the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) issued between Listing and June 01, 2022 (inclusive) according to the Federal Register. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 6, + "yes_ask": 8, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 3640 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:49.973Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 486, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Namibia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Namibia is Geingob, who has been in power for 6.0 years. Namibia has a party regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0062271", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9937729, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Namibia", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Geingob", + "month_risk": "0.0004814", + "annual_risk": "0.0062271", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "6", + "country_code": "NAM", + "country_abb": "NAM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Italy in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Italy is Conte, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Italy has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 75 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0023566", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9976434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Italy", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Conte", + "month_risk": "0.0012021", + "annual_risk": "0.0023566", + "risk_change_percent": "0.1", + "regime_years": "75", + "leader_years": "2.75", + "country_code": "ITA", + "country_abb": "ITA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Greece in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Greece is Mitsotakis, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Greece has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 47 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0026875", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9973125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Greece", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mitsotakis", + "month_risk": "0.0002205", + "annual_risk": "0.0026875", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "47", + "leader_years": "1.666667", + "country_code": "GRC", + "country_abb": "GRC" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Val Demings", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stephanie Murphy", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alan Grayson", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:26.326Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 18075 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Val Demings, Stephanie Murphy, Alan Grayson" + }, + { + "title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:24.239Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:54.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 52, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:06.318Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 173, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2147-where-will-dubai-international-airport-dxb-rank-among-the-busiest-airports-in-the-world-by-passenger-number-for-2022-according-to-the-airports-council-international-aci", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers ([ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings](https://aci.aero/news/2021/04/22/aci-world-data-reveals-covid-19s-impact-on-worlds-busiest-airports/)). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 ([ACI](https://aci.aero)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "1st to 3rd", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4th to 6th", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "7th to 9th", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "10th or lower", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:51.450Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasters": 44, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "1st to 3rd, 4th to 6th, 7th to 9th, 10th or lower" + }, + { + "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:36.713Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:55.501Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 79519 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How much spending in the reconciliation package by July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7646/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package-by-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the final Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) Cost Estimate of the total outlays, including discretionary, mandatory, and any other category of spending, over ten years for the first qualifying reconciliation package bill signed into law subsequent to the launch of this market on December 15, 2021, and before the End Date listed below. \nFor the purposes of this market, a bill shall be considered a qualifying reconciliation package if it is passed pursuant to the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, and if the CBO Cost Estimate of total outlays for the bill is greater than $300 Billion over ten years. A bill that raises the federal debt limit but does not meet the above condition shall not be sufficient to settle this market. \nIf the CBO Cost Estimate does not include a specific estimate over a time period of ten years, this market shall use the cost estimate for the longest time period that both includes a defined cost estimate and is shorter than ten years. \nShould no qualifying reconciliation bill be signed into law before the End Date listed below, the contract identifying the range “$0.6T or lower” shall resolve as yes.\nAny CBO Cost Estimate released after a bill is signed into law will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "$0.6T or lower", + "probability": 0.6055045871559633, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$0.6T to $0.8T", + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$0.8T to $1T", + "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$1T to $1.2T", + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$1.2T to $1.4T", + "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$1.4T to $1.6T", + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$1.6T to $1.8T", + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$1.8T to $2.0T", + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$2.0T to $2.2T", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$2.2T or more", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:23.500Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 459740 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "$0.6T or lower, $0.6T to $0.8T, $0.8T to $1T, $1T to $1.2T, $1.2T to $1.4T, $1.4T to $1.6T, $1.6T to $1.8T, $1.8T to $2.0T, $2.0T to $2.2T, $2.2T or more" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the most seats in the 2022 Australian federal election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7726/Who-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2022-Australian-federal-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party or listed coalition that wins the highest number of seats in the 2022 election to the Australian House of Representatives. Should two or more such parties or the listed coalition be tied for first place, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition, among those tied, that comes first alphabetically, based on the name provided in the listed contract. \nFor purposes of this market, the contract titled \"Lib-Nat Coalition\" will resolve based upon the combined number of seats won by the Liberal Party of Australia, the Liberal National Party of Queensland (which may be referred to as the Liberal National Party), the National Party of Australia, and the Country Liberal Party. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labor", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lib-Nat Coalition", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greens", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:44.103Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 128 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Labor, Lib-Nat Coalition, Greens" + }, + { + "title": "Liberal Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180957876", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Scott Morrison", + "probability": 0.8441681125235895, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Josh Frydenberg", + "probability": 0.04978427330267322, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Peter Dutton", + "probability": 0.0924565075621074, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greg Hunt", + "probability": 0.009707933294021278, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alan Tudge", + "probability": 0.0038831733176085113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 75270.04 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Peter Dutton, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **USD/Mexican peso exchange rate** be above 21 on February 4?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FOREX-002", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Federal Reserve's H.10 report reports that the conversion between the U.S. dollar and Mexican peso on February 04, 2022 is above 21, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FOREX in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. Please note that the data is from the Federal Reserve and represents the noon buying rate on the date in question.\n\nData is expected to be released at 4:15 PM on February 7, 2022. The market will close at 4:10 that day. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data or February 18, 2022. . The resolution source is: The foreign exchange rate of the Mexican peso with the U.S. dollar on February 04, 2022 according to the Federal Reserve’s H.10 weekly release. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 2, + "yes_ask": 3, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9498 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party's nominee will win the next French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176649734", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured parties may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Should a Party change only its name and maintain its original composition, then that Party will continue to trade under its original name. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "En Marche!", + "probability": 0.7731701145001628, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Republicans", + "probability": 0.13877412311541384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "National Rally", + "probability": 0.06983472001936954, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "La France insoumise", + "probability": 0.01353047700375285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Socialist Party", + "probability": 0.00360812720100076, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Debout la France", + "probability": 0.001082438160300228, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 50039.47 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "En Marche!, The Republicans, National Rally, La France insoumise, Socialist Party, Debout la France" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:16.464Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 415, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?\nThis question resolves positively, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nNo attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.\nWe request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:04.146Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden is 2024 DNOM", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A251", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Jamaica in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Jamaica is Holness, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Jamaica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0044174", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9955826, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Jamaica", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Holness", + "month_risk": "0.0003488", + "annual_risk": "0.0044174", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "59", + "leader_years": "5", + "country_code": "JAM", + "country_abb": "JAM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7548/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Colorado", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Colorado U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.7425742574257426, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.25742574257425743, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:33.326Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 35927 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_%28in_thousands%29).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:29.075Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 89, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Armenia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Armenia is Pashinyan, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Armenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0081691", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9918309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Armenia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Pashinyan", + "month_risk": "0.0006389", + "annual_risk": "0.0081691", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "3", + "leader_years": "2.833333", + "country_code": "ARM", + "country_abb": "ARM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/374-how-will-the-number-of-japanese-air-force-responses-to-threats-to-japan-s-territorial-airspace-by-chinese-military-aircraft-change-over-the-next-three-years", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Related question. We previously published a version of this question for Japanese FY 2020.  Context. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force), typically in April of each year. The years being forecasted are the Japanese Fiscal Year, which for FY 2021 is April 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022.***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * * \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:30.250Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 206, + "numforecasters": 50, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bad Habits by Ed Sheeran win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-1", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Bad Habits by Ed Sheeran has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 26562 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/autonomous-cars-precede-ar-users-in-cars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:44.366Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-07-15T15:16:32Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Portugal in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Portugal is de Sousa, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Portugal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 45 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0021564", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9978436, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Portugal", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "de Sousa", + "month_risk": "0.000158", + "annual_risk": "0.0021564", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", + "regime_years": "45", + "leader_years": "5", + "country_code": "PRT", + "country_abb": "POR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:53.902Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 120, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-03 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7681/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-03-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Third Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Van Taylor", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keith Self", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Suzanne Harp", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rickey Williams", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:34.846Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 4965 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Van Taylor, Keith Self, Suzanne Harp, Rickey Williams" + }, + { + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:49.242Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 217, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:48.611Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 310, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:22.758Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 233, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8504/us-sign-killer-robot-ban-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban.\nWill the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Government formally agrees to an international treaty which purports to ban either the possession or the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons as defined above, and is announced on the [U.S. Department of State Office of Treaty Affairs](https://www.state.gov/treaties-in-force/) or a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP or New York Times).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:01.100Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.\nWill Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:22.722Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 194, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-02-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:05.366Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 78, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:51.554Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 51, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:16.834Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8848/brazilian-export-ban-on-soybeansricemaize-/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Brazilian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Brazil, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or both of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of soybeans or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Brazilian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:30.194Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Canada in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Canada is Trudeau, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Canada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 89 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0013635", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9986365, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Canada", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Trudeau", + "month_risk": "0.0001116", + "annual_risk": "0.0013635", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "89", + "leader_years": "5.333333", + "country_code": "CAN", + "country_abb": "CAN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 New Hampshire Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Chuck Morse", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Bolduc", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Frank Edelblut", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kelly Ayotte", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Sununu", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Brown", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Mowers", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Corky Messner", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Phil Taub", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill Binnie", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Frank Guinta", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:00.514Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 73297 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Morse, Donald Bolduc, Frank Edelblut, Kelly Ayotte, Chris Sununu, Scott Brown, Matt Mowers, Corky Messner, Phil Taub, Bill Binnie, Frank Guinta" + }, + { + "title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8322/forecasting-inflation-using-unemployment/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \nTo this end, let denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year to the year inclusive:\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable.\nWe ask the following question:\nWill unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?\nThis question resolves positively if the adjusted coefficient of determination of the second regression strictly exceeds that of the first regression, and resolves negatively otherwise. Here, is the end-of-year CPI inflation for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and is the end-of-year unemployment rate for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year .\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:59.665Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by May 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-may-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to May 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8928404963715830418138393550310768", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1071595036284169581861606449689232", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "65", + "liquidity": "300.06", + "tradevolume": "1237.76", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:35.604Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 495, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/422-how-will-the-percentage-of-u-s-residents-who-are-concerned-about-how-the-government-uses-their-data-change-over-the-next-three-years", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the results of the Pew Research Center \"Americans and Privacy\" survey. The survey asks \"How concerned are you, if at all, about how the government is using the data it collects about you?\" The answer options are \"Very concerned,\" \"Somewhat concerned,\" \"Not too concerned,\" and \"Not at all concerned.\" This question asks about the percentage of respondents who select either \"Very concerned\" or \"Somewhat concerned.\" The date of the survey is the end of the survey period, not the date the results are published. This survey is conducted at irregular intervals, and therefore might not be conducted during each of the three years being forecasted. If the survey is not conducted during a forecast period, that period will not be scored. This question has been asked once in June 2019. The results of that surveys are available here (pg. 54).* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.* * * \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:27.863Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 360, + "numforecasters": 138, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.5098039215686274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.49019607843137253, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:24.082Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 35122 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:15.554Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 474, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:49.880Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1443733 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8383/nuclear-attacks-and-global-temperature-drop/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange\n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia\nIf >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?\nThis question will resolve positively if the following two criteria are met:\n1-- \nThere is a nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by 2030-01-01 \n2-- \nAverage global temperature during the 3 years following the conflict is at least 3°C lower than the average global temperature during the 3 years prior to the conflict.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by 2030-01-01.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in temperature but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:22.765Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 24, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2201-before-1-january-2023-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-landing-military-personnel-on-pratas-islands-without-authorization", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands ([News.com.au](https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-reportedly-debated-attacking-taiwans-pratas-islands/news-story/d12105d9ef57b6c5f448b1e5d7c1297a), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/a-far-flung-taiwan-island-risks-triggering-a-u-s-china-clash), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/the-pratas-islands-a-new-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:16.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasters": 81, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections from a single infected person), the generation interval distribution can be used to estimate the rate of transmission, forecast future infections, estimate the effectiveness of control measures, and potentially estimate the timing of an outbreak's peak and its final size.\nIf two infectious diseases have the same reproduction number but one has a shorter generation interval then case numbers for that disease will rise and fall more quickly than for a disease with longer generation intervals. Similarly, if it is wrongly assumed that two diseases have the same generation interval when one is actually shorter then estimates of the reproduction number will be biased upwards. This may result in poor quality forecasts and impact the policy interventions implemented.\n[Estimation of the generation interval is complex](https://twitter.com/sbfnk/status/1478468932155723779) as both it and the effective reproduction number may change over time, across locations, and within subpopulations. We can think of the generation interval as being composed of both an individual's infectiousness over time and their contacts with others. Both of these are likely to differ due to demographic factors (such as age) with an [individual's infectiousness](https://github.com/VirologyCharite/SARS-CoV-2-VL-paper) likely also being altered by the effectiveness of their immune system and characteristics of the disease itself. The number, and type, of contacts for infected individuals, are also likely to vary over time and this can be impacted by mitigation efforts leading to reductions in the estimated generation interval ([such as contact tracing](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266051v1)). Finally, realised generation intervals may be dependent on the transmissibility of a disease with more transmissible diseases more rapidly depleting their local networks ([such as households](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1)), and local (or global) high prevalence leading to an observed [reduction due to competition effects between infectors](https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024v3).\nThere are several transmission distributions that are related to the generation time including the serial interval (which is the time between the onset of symptoms for an infector and an infectee) , and the test-to-test distribution (which similarly is the interval between the case report of an infector and an infectee). These distributions may be used as a [proxy for the generation time](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2020.0756) due to the difficulty in estimating the generation time. However, both of these measures are subject to a range of additional biases especially for pathogens that can transmit before the onset of symptoms, such as COVID-19.\nDoes Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?\nWill 3, or more, of the 5 most cited studies (available on the 1st of January 2023 that refer to the generation time/interval of Omicron in the title as returned by a Google Scholar search for generation, time or interval, and Omicron) which estimate the generation interval or a transmission distribution proxy (such as the serial interval, or the test-to-test distribution) conclude (if no conclusion is made a study will be discarded and the next most cited study included) that the mean intrinsic (or realised if not distinguished) generation interval of Omicron is shorter than that of Delta? If fewer than 5 studies are found then the majority conclusion from these studies will be used. \nQuestion composed by Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, and Sebastion Funk \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:19.858Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "I'm interested in whether the USA will be involved in a major hot war in the next decade. I wasn't satisfied with the resolution criteria of other questions on this topic, so I created this one.\nBy 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?\nFor purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in \"deaths due to kinetic attacks.\" The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.\nThe attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.\nHowever, the attackers need to be \"part of the same team\" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.\nYes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:13.349Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T14:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:13:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Colorado Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7569/Who-will-win-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Colorado. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Heidi Ganahl", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greg Lopez", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "D. Neuschwanger", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Brauchler", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Benjamin Huseman", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:18.453Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 18078 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Heidi Ganahl, Greg Lopez, D. Neuschwanger, George Brauchler, Benjamin Huseman" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Idaho.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Brad Little", + "probability": 0.5963302752293578, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Janice McGeachin", + "probability": 0.33944954128440363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ammon Bundy", + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Raúl Labrador", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ed Humphreys", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Cotton", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Russ Fulcher", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:48.057Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 34363 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ammon Bundy, Raúl Labrador, Ed Humphreys, Jeff Cotton, Russ Fulcher" + }, + { + "title": "DJT runs for POTUS in 2024", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A223", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Joe Manchin switches parties prior to his next election", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A174", @@ -329,6 +18868,3777 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:43.864Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 247, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:16:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\nIf Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\nA clearer picture may soon emerge.\n“If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\nIf the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\nThat’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\nThe next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([Time, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n“A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n“I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n“I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of [FutureFuel.io](http://FutureFuel.io). \nWill the US forgive $10,000 of federal debt per student before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.\nThe debt cancellation should apply to the vast majority of applicable people. There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If it is unclear whether the restrictions are more strict or less strict than this, the moderators can use their discretion as to whether loan forgiveness applies to the vast majority of applicable people.\nIf the conditions above are not met, the question resolves negatively. For example, if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, the question resolves negatively.\nRelated question: [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/fede…](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:23.255Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 122, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:29.620Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 241, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Rep. House & Senate", + "probability": 0.6822429906542056, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "R House, D Senate", + "probability": 0.14953271028037382, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dem. House & Senate", + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "D House, R Senate", + "probability": 0.05607476635514018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:24.318Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1014042 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate" + }, + { + "title": "Between 25 January 2022 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others. For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.82, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:15:34.531Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4 + }, + "extra": { + "superforecastercommentary": "
    " + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Luxembourg in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Luxembourg is Bettel, who has been in power for 7.3 years. Luxembourg has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 150 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0004699", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9995301, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Luxembourg", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Bettel", + "month_risk": "0.0000402", + "annual_risk": "0.0004699", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "150", + "leader_years": "7.25", + "country_code": "LUX", + "country_abb": "LUX" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2240-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-1-october-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "In 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/myanmar-will-tip-further-into-violence-and-misery), [Radio Free Asia](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/detainees-01032022212032.html), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html)) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:56.443Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 182, + "numforecasters": 137, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\na drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_%28meal_replacement%29) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\nWill Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n1-- \nIssuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n2-- \nBanning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n---Soylent Powder/Drink \n---Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink \n---Queal Steady \n---Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink \n---ManaPowder/ManaDrink \n---Saturo Powder/Drink \nIf additional products are listed by [blendrunner.com](http://blendrunner.com) in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:06.438Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 86, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\nIn 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n. . .\nOn March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n. . .\nIt remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\nWill women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to 2024-01-06. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to 2024-01-06; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after 2024-01-06 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:05.776Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 199, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-13T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-06T06:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Curve suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-curve-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Curve suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Curve is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.07380400275428077126373856665976374", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9261959972457192287362614333402363", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "18", + "liquidity": "11052.15", + "tradevolume": "15491.44", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"A number of catastrophic events could cause a roughly 10% global agricultural shortfall, including a medium-sized asteroid/comet impact (Napier 2008), a large but not super volcanic eruption, full-scale nuclear war if the impacts are less than anticipated (Turco et al. 1990), regional nuclear war (for example, India-Pakistan (Ozdogan et al. 2013)), abrupt regional climate change (Valdes 2011), complete global loss of bees as pollinators (Aizen et al. 2009), a super crop pest or pathogen, and coincident extreme weather, resulting in multiple breadbasket failures (Bailey et al. 2015).\"\nBut there's uncertainty about how likely each of those events is, how likely a 10% global agricultural shortfall is given each event, and how likely it is that such a shortfall will occur for some other reason.\nWill there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?\nThe question will be resolved positively if the yearly total global agricultural crop yield for the calendar year 2022 or 2023 (as reported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) is at least 10% lower than agricultural production in the previous calendar year (2021 or 2022, respectively) was. \nThe reason for the shortfall does not matter (e.g., it does not have to be related to nuclear conflict).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:38.116Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8589/the-us-re-ratification-of-inf-treaty-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):\n\"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers of different ranges, excluding sea-launched missiles. \n[...] Amidst continuing growth of China's missile forces, US President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that he was withdrawing the US from the treaty due to supposed Russian non-compliance. The United States claimed another reason for the withdrawal was to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within the South China Sea, as China was not a signatory to the treaty. The US formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so on the following day in response. The US formally withdrew from the treaty on 2 August 2019.\"\nThe likelihood of the US re-joining the INF Treaty has implications for nuclear risk both directly (as the treaty plausibly reduces nuclear risk) and as a proxy of geopolitical tensions and the health of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US.\nBy 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, between the question opening and 2024, there are credible reports that US President has announced it (unconditionally) intends to either (1) re-join the INF Treaty or (2) sign a new arms control treaty which the President describes as the successor to the INF Treaty. In the latter case, ratification by 2024 isn't necessary (just signing), and, for simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess the President on whether this treaty really is a successor to the INF Treaty. \nFor positive resolution, it would not be sufficient for the US President to make a conditional announcement, such that as the US intends to re-join the INF Treaty if Russia takes some particular action that Russia is not already taking.\nConversely, positive resolution does not require that the US actually re-join the INF Treaty (or sign a successor treaty) by 2024. Positive resolution also does not require that Russia announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:50.805Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7627/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Alabama.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Kay Ivey", + "probability": 0.6851851851851851, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tim James", + "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lynda Blanchard", + "probability": 0.13888888888888887, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Zeigler", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stacy George", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dean Odle", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:43.409Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 19393 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kay Ivey, Tim James, Lynda Blanchard, Jim Zeigler, Stacy George, Dean Odle" + }, + { + "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2023", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A262", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2028-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:01.150Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T23:58:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:14.921Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:07.094Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 52, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:33.808Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 105, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9533/china-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:14.644Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_%28rocket%29) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:28.011Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 190, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:59.912Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\nedited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:59.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 127, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. Indeed, the questions were framed as partly intending to get at extinction risk. But how likely is extinction, given a 95% population loss? \n(See also [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100), [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/), and a soon-to-be-released question intended to get at the likelihood of unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse) given a 95% population loss.)\nWill extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million by 2100 and, within 20 years of the population falling below that level, there are no longer any living humans. The extinction could occur at the exact same time as the initial population decline (if some event instantly causes extinction), gradually over the course of 20 years, or anywhere in between.\nThe question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100 but extinction doesn't occur within 20 years. The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:00.605Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 26, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on January 2, 2023.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on January 1, 2023, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:15.982Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 467, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-02T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T03:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:06.307Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 445, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2180-what-percentage-of-all-light-vehicle-sales-in-the-us-will-be-either-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-phevs-or-all-electric-vehicles-evs-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues ([Power Technology](https://www.power-technology.com/news/electric-vehicle-sales-surge-in-2021/), [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-turning-point-for-us-auto-dealers-the-unstoppable-electric-car)). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 ([Oak Ridge National Laboratory](https://tedb.ornl.gov/archive/)). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year ([TEDB - Edition 39 (2021)](https://tedb.ornl.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/TEDB_Ed_39.pdf#page=182), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 2.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 5.0%", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:50.698Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 180, + "numforecasters": 69, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.0%, Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0%" + }, + { + "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:50.175Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:21.662Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 251, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:16.972Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 304, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Liberia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Liberia is Weah, who has been in power for 3.2 years. Liberia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 15 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0193034", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9806966, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Liberia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Weah", + "month_risk": "0.0012974", + "annual_risk": "0.0193034", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "15", + "leader_years": "3.166667", + "country_code": "LBR", + "country_abb": "LBR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.\nWill the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the United States of America has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:09.126Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 28, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8638/non-nuclear-armed-state-and-a-nuc-detonation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/).\nAt least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?\nCurrently, [there are 9 nuclear-armed states](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/): Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf a state that isn't currently nuclear-armed becomes nuclear-armed before 2030, a fatality in that state while it is nuclear-armed can count towards positive resolution of this question.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the US.\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Israel](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8637/fatality-in-israel-from-a-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:58.682Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/catalonia-independence-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nBy 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:25.511Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 408, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7786/100-deaths-in-india-pakistan-conflict-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since [partition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India), [India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) and [Pakistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) have had a [tense relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and [many conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:18.787Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Albania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Albania is Rama, who has been in power for 7.5 years. Albania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0042608", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9957392, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.849Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Albania", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Rama", + "month_risk": "0.0004831", + "annual_risk": "0.0042608", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "7.5", + "country_code": "ALB", + "country_abb": "ALB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8101/lapid-pm-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Yair Lapid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yair_Lapid) is Israel's Foreign Minister. He formed the [current government of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_government_of_Israel) but allowed Naftali Bennett to be Prime Minister first. Lapid is scheduled to become Prime Minister in 2023 in a rotation agreement. The government may collapse before that date. Lapid's liberal, secular, Zionist, and pro two-state solution [Yesh Atid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid) party has performed [well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election) in Israeli opinion polls, and so Lapid could become Prime Minister even if the government collapses before the rotation agreement takes effect.\nWill Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel before January 1, 2030 as reported by reliable media outlets.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:50.129Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 55, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:25.036Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 173, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:30.735Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 64, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which Party's candidate will win the popular vote at the 2024 US Presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176967", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions. This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN. In the event of any uncertainty over which party each candidate represents the Party as defined by the Federal Election Commission will be used for settlement This market will only be void in the event that the 2024 Presidential Election does not take place, as defined below. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic Party", + "probability": 0.7836272024189025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican Party", + "probability": 0.20310337695347064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Any Other", + "probability": 0.013269420627626751, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 30864.83 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party, Any Other" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on December 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, \"Justice\" means either a Chief Justice or an Associate Justice.\nConfirmation of a sitting Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:28.603Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 268803 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:\nWill a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?\nThis resolves positive if, before 2029, a Democratic US President signs into law a budget that provides for 500 billion dollars less in spending than the budget of the previous year.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:28.911Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 64, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Chile in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Chile is Sebastian Pinera, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Chile has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0074274", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9925726, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Chile", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Sebastian Pinera", + "month_risk": "0.0005081", + "annual_risk": "0.0074274", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "3", + "country_code": "CHL", + "country_abb": "CHL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:00.993Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:10.769Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 106312 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Boris Johnson?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160843673", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister ***Updated 25/03/2020***", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Rishi Sunak.", + "probability": 0.34032910314935055, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Truss", + "probability": 0.10588016542424239, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keir Starmer", + "probability": 0.08286273815810274, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeremy Hunt", + "probability": 0.07941012406818179, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Tugendhat", + "probability": 0.06806582062987011, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Penny Mordaunt", + "probability": 0.05605420522459892, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dominic Raab", + "probability": 0.02268860687662337, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Gove", + "probability": 0.02802710261229946, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sajid Javid", + "probability": 0.026470041356060597, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nadhim Zahawi", + "probability": 0.019852531017045448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Priti Patel", + "probability": 0.01905842977636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Baker", + "probability": 0.01588202481363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Harper", + "probability": 0.002507688128468899, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "James Cleverly", + "probability": 0.00794101240681818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", + "probability": 0.004331461312809916, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Barclay", + "probability": 0.0038116859552727264, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tobia Ellwood", + "probability": 0.00794101240681818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kemi Badenoch", + "probability": 0.0019058429776363632, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nigel Farage", + "probability": 0.0014660330597202793, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ruth Davidson", + "probability": 0.0019058429776363632, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alok Sharma", + "probability": 0.00132350206780303, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Burnham", + "probability": 0.00264700413560606, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Johnny Mercer", + "probability": 0.003529338847474747, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yvette Cooper", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Bercow", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Miliband", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rory Stewart", + "probability": 0.002324198753215077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Angela Rayner", + "probability": 0.0030739402865102633, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Davis", + "probability": 0.0029778796525568177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Oliver Dowden", + "probability": 0.0012705619850909087, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Esther McVey", + "probability": 0.0010706983020429008, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", + "probability": 0.0017325845251239666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sadiq Khan", + "probability": 0.0013613164125974022, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrea Leadsom", + "probability": 0.0013613164125974022, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Theresa May", + "probability": 0.006352809925454545, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Damian Hinds", + "probability": 0.0009823932874414244, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ed Davey", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anne Marie Trevelyan", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lisa Nandy", + "probability": 0.002324198753215077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matthew Hancock", + "probability": 0.0011080482428118391, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jess Phillips", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robert Jenrick", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gavin Williamson", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bim Afolami", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Simon Jordan", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Geoffrey Cox", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jo Swinson", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", + "probability": 0.0011344303438311687, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amber Rudd", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dominic Grieve", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Watson", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John McDonnell", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emily Thornberry", + "probability": 0.0010137462647001932, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ken Clarke", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Margaret Beckett", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Caroline Lucas", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ian Blackford", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Saville-Roberts", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sylvia Hermon", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Harriet Harman", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Philip Hammond", + "probability": 0.0018684735074866305, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hilary Benn", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrea Jenkyns", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Cameron", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Helen Whately", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kit Malthouse", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Layla Moran", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Daisy Cooper", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Christine Jardine", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wera Hobhouse", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alistair Carmichael", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Suella Braverman", + "probability": 0.0009529214888181816, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nadine Dorries", + "probability": 0.0010357842269762844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Wallace", + "probability": 0.03176404962727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 491387.46 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak., Liz Truss, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Nadhim Zahawi, Priti Patel, Steve Baker, Mark Harper, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Barclay, Tobia Ellwood, Kemi Badenoch, Nigel Farage, Ruth Davidson, Alok Sharma, Andrew Burnham, Johnny Mercer, Yvette Cooper, John Bercow, David Miliband, Rory Stewart, Angela Rayner, David Davis, Oliver Dowden, Esther McVey, Jeremy Corbyn, Sadiq Khan, Andrea Leadsom, Theresa May, Damian Hinds, Ed Davey, Rosena Allin-Khan, Anne Marie Trevelyan, Lisa Nandy, Matthew Hancock, Jess Phillips, Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson, Bim Afolami, Simon Jordan, Geoffrey Cox, Jo Swinson, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Amber Rudd, Dominic Grieve, Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Emily Thornberry, Ken Clarke, Margaret Beckett, Caroline Lucas, Ian Blackford, Liz Saville-Roberts, Sylvia Hermon, Harriet Harman, Philip Hammond, Hilary Benn, Andrea Jenkyns, David Cameron, Helen Whately, Kit Malthouse, Layla Moran, Daisy Cooper, Christine Jardine, Wera Hobhouse, Alistair Carmichael, Suella Braverman, Nadine Dorries, Ben Wallace" + }, + { + "title": "Will Planet Her by Doja Cat win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-4", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Planet Her (Deluxe) by Doja Cat has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 12612 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:09.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 542, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is complementary to another on the [legality of Bitcoin](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/). Measuring legality requires a cluster of angles.\nWill it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?\nQuestion resolves positively if at any point before January 1st, 2030, there exist an IRS publication at [irs.gov](http://irs.gov), that explains or gives instructions on how to pay taxes to the IRS with Bitcoin.\n1-- \nSome crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n2-- \nThere is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n3-- \nIt can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n4-- \nThere is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:19.966Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 82, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-9", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 18358 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)\nWill there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than 1 January, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:56.689Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 142, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).\nWill Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?\nA \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n---resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date), \n---lost a confidence vote, \n---lost an election, \n---formally left office, \n---died, \n---been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. \nResolution will be according to reliable published reports.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:42.513Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 166, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-13T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2144-what-will-be-the-average-air-quality-index-in-dubai-in-march-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow ([AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/about-airnow/)). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose \"Dubai\" under \"Select a City,\" and click on the \"Historical\" tab. Click on the file for \"2022 PM2.5 YTD,\" when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled \"AQI\" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a \"3\" under \"Month\" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 85.00", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 95.00 but less than 105.00", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 115.00", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:54.776Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasters": 33, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 85.00, Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive, More than 95.00 but less than 105.00, Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive, More than 115.00" + }, + { + "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366%2818%2930135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:11.581Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 225, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:18.602Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 562, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "[Hae Min Lee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Hae_Min_Lee) was a high school senior in Baltimore, Maryland, who disappeared on January 13, 1999. When her body was found a month later on February 9, an investigation ensued that relied heavily on information provided by Jay Wilds, a marijuana dealer who had graduated from Hae's high school. The police claimed to have focused on Hae's ex-boyfriend, Adnan Syed, following a tip from an anonymous caller and information provided by Jenn (a friend of Jay but not of Adnan). After Adnan’s conviction, the case was featured in the podcasts [Serial](http://serialpodcast.org/) and [Undisclosed](http://undisclosed-podcast.com/), and some of the new evidence and arguments led the court to [overturn Adnan's conviction and grant him a new trial](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jul/01/serial-adnan-syed-new-trial-hae-min-lee-murder). Followers of the case have made[ maps containing significant locations](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zERAsrjje-sU.kQFffQE6h2vk), [multiple](http://i.imgur.com/E11E8WM.jpg) possible [timelines](http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/pulse_embed/public/2014/11/05/serial_tl_1-6_770.png) have been suggested, and debates have ensued on forums such as [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III).", + "probability": 0.5377257381473797, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee.", + "probability": 0.3135449100891127, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).", + "probability": 0.08451102649131251, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee.", + "probability": 0.04682696694032147, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).", + "probability": 0.01393535852010411, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM).", + "probability": 0.0018381056042367754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee.", + "probability": 0.0008436308886018265, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee.", + "probability": 0.0007742633189311423, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III)., Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM)., Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee., Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee." + }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:12.689Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 289, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.\nWill Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:55.982Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 101, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-01T23:56:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Someone else is 2024 POTUS", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A241", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-16T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7975/european-army-before-2032/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\nThe European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it.\nWill there be a European Army before 2032?\nThis question will resolve positive if:\nThere is legislation passed in at least 5 European countries (including one of France, Germany, UK) which makes provisions for an army consisting of units from multiple countries.\nLower level army units (eg platoons, companies, battalions, regiments) need not be mixed. (For example, often countries have armies formed from regional regiments and are still considered national armies). However, senior levels need to be staffed by officers from a range of countries.\nThe army needs to be planned to be an \"Army\". ie a joint battalion (eg the one formed between the Dutch and Germans) would not count. For this question, this means that at least 30,000 soldiers need to be planned to be in such an army.\nThe army needs to report to a supranational organization. It need not be the an EU body or any existing organization. It does need to be specifically European. eg A G7 army would not count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:18.554Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many votes to confirm Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair by March 31?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7679/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Lael-Brainard-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-March-31", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Lael Brainard (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"51 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"76 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "51 or fewer", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "52 to 54", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55 to 57", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "58 to 60", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "61 to 63", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "64 to 66", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "67 to 69", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "70 to 72", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "73 to 75", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "76 or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:30.989Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 24067 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "51 or fewer, 52 to 54, 55 to 57, 58 to 60, 61 to 63, 64 to 66, 67 to 69, 70 to 72, 73 to 75, 76 or more" + }, + { + "title": "In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-reduces-nuclear-stockpile-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIn 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held 3,800 (or fewer) nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:05.574Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 192, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.\nWill there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.\n[EIDT] Sylvain 2021-09-02: reversed the title, which was the opposite of the resolution criteria.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:06.474Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:34.934Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 124, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8106/senolytics-for-pets-and-people/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps. Will this role apply to senolytics too?\nWill a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?\nSimilar to the linked question’s criterion, “an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells”. This function must be verified by a reputable third party, such as the FDA or major medical journals. An impact on lifespan need not be demonstrated for either the animal or the human therapy.\nIf a therapy for animals is sold before a human therapy is approved and sold, but the animal therapy is only verified by a third party afterwards, the question will still resolve positively. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:16.147Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-09-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:12.267Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 308, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a US-China war by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.\nWill there be a US-China war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[100 deaths from China-US conflict before 2050](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/)\n--- \n[Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:34.044Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 55, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 16 March 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 January 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2182-at-close-of-business-on-16-march-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-26-january-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 15-16 March 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Same", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:40.724Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 353, + "numforecasters": 103, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\nSeveral potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power. \n[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks.\nWill there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the probability from 0 to 1 that at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2024.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n--- \na >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n--- \na non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \nPositive resolution requires a HEMP attack to be reported by at least three major media outlets within 30 days of the attack and before January 1st, 2024.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:06.285Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 61, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:51:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:51:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On Friday, December 15, 2017, billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Barry Sherman and his wife Honey were found dead in their home in Toronto. [Sherman was one of the wealthiest Canadians](http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2017/12/15/canadian-pharmaceuticals-billionaire-and-wife-found-dead-in-toronto-mansion/#5734bf2b7fe2), and the Shermans gave considerable sums to [philanthropic causes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/barry-and-honey-sherman-canadian-pm-leads-mourning-of-billionaire-couple), as well as business ventures and [political campaigns](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). The Shermans were [found in their home, by an indoor pool, and police determined that they died of strangulation](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). Although police stated that the circumstances of the deaths \"[appear to be suspicious](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html),\" they also noted that there were no immediate suspects and initially investigated the case as [a potential homicide-suicide](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/16/murder-suicide-is-the-working-theory-for-police-investigating-death-of-billionaire-and-his-wife.html). Friends and family of the Shermans declared from the outset that this must have been a homicide, insisting that the Shermans wouldn't have taken their own (or one another's) lives. On Friday January 26, Toronto police [announced that they were treating the case as a double homicide](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/barry-and-honey-shermans-death-now-ruled-as-double-homicide/article37745567/), without revealing any additional evidence.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Barry and Honey were both murdered.", + "probability": 0.7651433409264672, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Barry and Honey committed suicide together.", + "probability": 0.13874736684819586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself.", + "probability": 0.0961092922253371, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Barry and Honey were both murdered., Barry and Honey committed suicide together., Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself." + }, + { + "title": "Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2169-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-flying-a-military-aircraft-over-the-territory-of-and-or-the-territorial-waters-surrounding-the-main-island-of-taiwan-without-its-permission-before-1-september-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-taiwan-military-incursions-test-the-limits-of-airspace/a-59398039), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20211002-taiwan-slams-largest-ever-incursion-by-chinese-into-air-defence-zone), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/china-fighter-jets-will-fly-over-taiwan-declare-sovereignty-state-media-says-1583109)). For the purposes of this question, \"territorial waters\" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:12.091Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 289, + "numforecasters": 148, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n[Kharkiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv) is a strategically-important city with its city limits located only about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border. [According to Al-Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/fears-of-russian-invasion-trouble-ukraines-silicon-valley), in the event of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv could be the first city to be attacked. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html) Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine Before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Kharkiv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kharkiv for any length of time without the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:30.240Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected to be the Democratic Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Democratic Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Joe Biden", + "probability": 0.3726038338907033, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris", + "probability": 0.25709664538458527, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.07141573482905146, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.013531402388662381, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", + "probability": 0.044327007824928495, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Garcetti", + "probability": 0.014283146965810293, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gavin Newsom", + "probability": 0.01713977635897235, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cory Booker", + "probability": 0.014283146965810293, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michelle Obama", + "probability": 0.03780833020361548, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Bloomberg", + "probability": 0.006765701194331191, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Ossoff", + "probability": 0.0029894958765649448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "probability": 0.008569888179486175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amy Klobuchar", + "probability": 0.02921552788461196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.006121348699632983, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katie Porter", + "probability": 0.0032961108382639137, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "probability": 0.03570786741452573, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gretchen Whitmer", + "probability": 0.004284944089743088, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tulsi Gabbard", + "probability": 0.010712360224357719, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ayanna Pressley", + "probability": 0.0012984679059827539, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jamaal Bowman", + "probability": 0.0014283146965810292, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nina Turner", + "probability": 0.0036728092197797894, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Beto O Rourke", + "probability": 0.0024720831286979355, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.0012854832269229262, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill Gates", + "probability": 0.0014283146965810292, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rashida Tlaib", + "probability": 0.0014283146965810292, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tammy Duckworth", + "probability": 0.0014947479382824724, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Rice", + "probability": 0.006427416134614632, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Adams", + "probability": 0.0036728092197797894, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Polis", + "probability": 0.002921552788461196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "J.B. Pritzker", + "probability": 0.00803427016826829, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dwayne Johnson", + "probability": 0.014283146965810293, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 251181.29 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Eric Garcetti, Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, Michelle Obama, Michael Bloomberg, John Ossoff, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Katie Porter, Hillary Clinton, Gretchen Whitmer, Tulsi Gabbard, Ayanna Pressley, Jamaal Bowman, Nina Turner, Beto O Rourke, Andrew Cuomo, Bill Gates, Rashida Tlaib, Tammy Duckworth, Susan Rice, Eric Adams, Jared Polis, J.B. Pritzker, Dwayne Johnson" + }, + { + "title": "Will Freedom by Jon Batiste win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-2", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Freedom by Jon Batiste has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 8046 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the \"[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_%28rocket%29)\".\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\nResolution is by credible media report.\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:06.497Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 571, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/agi-preceeds-lev/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:43.946Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 147, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the owners of the MLB approve an **Oakland Athletics move to a new city** by March 15, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MLBOAK-002", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the owners of existing MLB franchises have approved the relocation of the MLB franchise currently known as the Oakland Athletics to a new city by March 15, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else resolves to No. Please see MLBOAK in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including the definition of a new city. \n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event. . The resolution source is: Notices on the website of Major League Baseball. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 12, + "yes_ask": 15, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 10142 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_%28cryptosystem%29), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:50.265Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 172, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will MetaMask airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2620118993423829247553111717775077", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7379881006576170752446888282224923", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "306", + "liquidity": "5094.97", + "tradevolume": "17771.01", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nWill the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on 2031-06-01 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:49.088Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 65, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-04-22T23:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:20:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2140-in-new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-new-york-state-s-denial-of-applications-for-concealed-carry-licenses-for-self-defense-violated-the-second-amendment", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a \"proper cause\" for obtaining the license ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843)). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen/)). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/ny-state-rifle-pistol-assn-v-beach), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/164031/20201217110211298_2020-12-17%20NRA-Corlett%20Cert%20Petition%20FINAL.pdf)). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 ([Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalNovember2021.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:01.522Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 103, + "numforecasters": 47, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Kuwait in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Kuwait is Nawaf Al-Sabah, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Kuwait has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 72 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0037281", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9962719, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Kuwait", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nawaf Al-Sabah", + "month_risk": "0.0003022", + "annual_risk": "0.0037281", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "72", + "leader_years": "0.5", + "country_code": "KWT", + "country_abb": "KUW" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8758/will-a-variant-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:11.177Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 256, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Turkey in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Turkey is Erdogan, who has been in power for 18.0 years. Turkey has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0080428", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9919572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Turkey", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Erdogan", + "month_risk": "0.0002549", + "annual_risk": "0.0080428", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "2", + "leader_years": "18", + "country_code": "TUR", + "country_abb": "TUR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Germany in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Germany is Merkel, who has been in power for 15.3 years. Germany has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.001601", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.998399, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Germany", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Merkel", + "month_risk": "0.0001158", + "annual_risk": "0.001601", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "15.33333", + "country_code": "DEU", + "country_abb": "GMY" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \nWill the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?\nThis question resolves positively if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict involving the state whose weapon is detonated and the state against which the weapon is detonated. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs by 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:50.567Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 36, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T22:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:54:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will a legally authorised referendum next take place on Scottish independence?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.166577732", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day of the referendum. This market will be settled as “Not before 2025” at 00:00 on 1st January 2025 if no referendum takes place before this time. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "2022", + "probability": 0.012399906637726811, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2023", + "probability": 0.2026907815782267, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2024", + "probability": 0.17566534403446316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 2025", + "probability": 0.6092439677495832, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 28541.85 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024, Not before 2025" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2176-before-1-january-2023-will-china-and-or-a-host-country-officially-announce-an-agreement-for-the-establishment-of-a-chinese-military-base-in-an-african-country-besides-djibouti", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/us-general-china-has-10-year-contract-for-first-overseas-military-base/), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-africa-china-business-government-and-politics-24f774a952eaabcb38d2b25380b61a62)). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-argentina-china-insight-idUSKCN1PP0I2)). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as \"yes\" ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33115502)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:59.521Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasters": 70, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will **Joe Biden's approval rating** be greater than 41% on February 04, 2022? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-022", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than 41% at 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 1, + "yes_ask": 58, + "spread": 57, + "shares_volume": 19176 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/usd-dominant-reserve-currency-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nWill the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:45.222Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 176, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:19.794Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8553/donor-giving-10m-of-nuclear-risk-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nAs far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:\n--- \nThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)\n--- \nSince 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year\n--- \nNo other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)\nI base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012.\nWill a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.\nFootnote\n[1] To see the relevant data, go to [https://peaceandsecurityindex.org](https://peaceandsecurityindex.org), click \"Start searching\", select \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" from \"SUBJECT AREA\", and click \"List\". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking \"U.S. Federal Funders\". \n[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term \"nuclear\". These include medical research grants that use the term \"nuclear\" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:46.018Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Hungary in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Hungary is Orban, who has been in power for 10.8 years. Hungary has a party regime type which has lasted for 1 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0030037", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9969963, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Hungary", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Orban", + "month_risk": "0.000265", + "annual_risk": "0.0030037", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "1", + "leader_years": "10.83333", + "country_code": "HUN", + "country_abb": "HUN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:13.487Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 429, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 12 billion worldwide?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2185-when-will-the-number-of-covid-19-vaccine-doses-administered-reach-12-billion-worldwide", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/what-to-expect-in-year-three-of-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times ([Financial Times](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/)). Scroll to the section \"Vaccination doses administered...\" For location enter \"World,\" then click the boxes \"Raw numbers,\" \"Cumulative,\" and \"Total doses.\" The value and date will appear when hovering over the \"World\" line in the resulting graphic ([Financial Times](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=zzz&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=0), parameters are set with the link).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 April 2022", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 October 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:36.767Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 327, + "numforecasters": 140, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022, Not before 1 October 2022" + }, + { + "title": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9453/ecb-raises-rates-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Federal Reserve has announced raising interest rates](https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/inflation-could-lead-fed-to-hike-rates-more-than-4-times/) for the Dollar in 2022 in response to rising inflation. However, it's corresponding institution the European Central Bank (ECB) has not. The yearly inflation was nearly as high in December 2021 in the EU with [5%](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi) as in the US with [7%](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi). The [ECB considers the inflation a temporary phenomenon](https://www.ft.com/content/8e2036b9-c02e-45e8-87d8-c9d3362415f1) and expects the inflation rate to fall below the target rate of 2% within months without raising interest rates for the Euro.\nThere is political pressure to keep the interest rates for the Euro low [because of the risk that some EU member default on their debt](https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/the-euro-is-facing-a-make-or-break-year). There is counter-pressure to keep the Euro and Dollar exchange rate stable for global trade though.\nWill the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?\nIf the ECB raises their \"Fixed rate tenders Fixed rate\" higher than 0.00 before 2023-01-01, the question resolves to yes. An announcement to do so in 2023 is not sufficient. The official source is [the ECB's website](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html). [FRED provides the same data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBMRRFR) with more interactive interface.\nThe ECB also publishes a \"deposit facility\" and a \"marginal lending facility\" rate in the short-term. These are not relevant for this question.\nIn case the ECB does not exist anymore and has not raised the interest rate, the question resolves to \"no\" since no raise occured. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:24.621Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/373-will-china-execute-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-against-vietnam-india-or-taiwan-in-the-next-six-months", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.Related questions. A similar question was published on Metaculus in May 2018 as part of the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see here.Context. Many view China as becoming increasingly military aggressive. Experts are divided on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently stated that although the chance of a \"full-scale invasion of Taiwan\" is unlikely, we might soon see \"escalation short of all-out war.\" China and India have both recently increased their military presence on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the \"preferred warm-up fight\" for China.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A \"national military attack\" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as \"national military attacks\" unless the government claims responsibility for them. * * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.* * *  \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:30.833Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 429, + "numforecasters": 142, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9122/next-sars-cov-2-variant-from-the-unvaccinated/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The World Health Organization has (as of January 2022) identified several variants of SARS-CoV-2, 5 of which are designated as [variants of concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This designation indicates that the variant is more serious than previous variants of the virus, in that it is more transmissible, or evades current vaccinations or treatments. According to the WHO, 4 of the variants of concern emerged before vaccinations were available or widely deployed. Around [25-28% of South Africans](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~ZAF) had recieved at least 1 dose of a COVID vaccine at the time the omicron variant was identified there, while the global average vaccination share was around 50%.\nDr. William Schaffner from the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center said to [CNN in July 2021](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/15/five-more-years/) \"Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories [...] The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply [...] When it does, it mutates, and it could throw off a variant mutation that is even more serious down the road.\"\nDr. Amesh Adalja, from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said to Poynter in August 2021, \"The delta variant emerged in a largely unvaccinated country [...] The more the virus spreads, the more chance there is for variants to emerge.\"\nWill the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next [variant of concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) originates from a country with a lower share of the population vaccinated than [the global average](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~OWID_WRL).\nThis question will use the [WHO](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) to determine the country of origin. If, like for omicron, they only list \"multiple countries\", we will consult [cov-lineages](https://cov-lineages.org/lineage_list.html), or wait for a epidemiological consensus to emerge.\nA country will be considered a \"low-vaccination nation\" if [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) shows the share of population who have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine is lower than the global average during the period when the variant is estimated to have emerged.\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if there is no new variant of concern between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:26.935Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 18, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Jannik Sinner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner) is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's [Elo rankings](http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html)\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?\". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.\nWill Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?\nResolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).\nResolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nThis question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:10.264Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 44, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8554/women-get-70-of-bachelors-degrees-us-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was [34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.10.asp?current=yes). Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, [women get the majority of all degrees](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-degrees-of-separation-between-the-genders-in-college-keeps-growing/2019/10/25/8b2e5094-f2ab-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html), from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]\nWill women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?\nThis resolve positively if data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) shows that in the 2049-2050 school year women were awarded at least 70% of all bachelor's degrees in that year. If the NCES no longer publishes relevant data the highest credible estimate from other sources may be used. \"Female\" or \"women\" will be as defined by the NCES, or if the NCES no longer uses the terms male and female the sex or gender definition used by NCES will be used, so long as the ultimate representation represents either the share of degrees granted to those identifying as female or as women at time of graduation or who were female at birth. If alternate data sources are used any definition of female or woman that conforms to these resolution criteria is acceptable.\nIf bachelor's degrees no longer exist in a form comparable to the definition used by NCES for the data in the question background, admins may use their judgement to resolve based on statistics for similar post-secondary degrees, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:51.270Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T17:13:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:38.748Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 122, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:24.542Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 321, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8899/hungary-eu-exit-referendum-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Hungary [joined the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Hungarian_European_Union_membership_referendum) with 9 other eastern European nations after a 2003 referendum which saw 83.8% of voters in favor of joining the EU. Since then, Hungary has recieved [criticism from EU leaders](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/europe/hungary-eu-lgbt-mark-rutte-intl/index.html) for a June 2021 bill which banned LGBT content in Hungarian schools. CNN journalist Luke McGee noted that Article 7, a mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, would be \"very unlikely\" to occur, as it requires the unanimous vote of all other member nations.\nFinance Minister Mihály Varga [said in April 2021](https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-leave-the-eu-with-the-start-of-the-next-decade/) that he would vote to remain in the EU if a hypothetical referendum were held, but added\nthere is a chance for a new perspective on the issue. Especially if the attacks coming from Brussels become permanent because of our choices of values.\nPrime Minister Viktor Orban downplayed the suggestion of leaving the EU, [saying in November 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-will-not-leave-eu-wants-reform-it-pm-orban-says-2021-11-14/),\nWe don't want to leave the EU at all, they can't get rid of us so easily [...] We want to keep our sovereignty and we don't want to find ourselves in a united states of Europe.\nWill Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2023, the government of Hungary announces a date to hold a national referendum on a proposal to leave the EU. The date of the referendum may occur at any time, but the announcement must occur before 2023. The referendum need not be legally binding, only be open to Hungarian voters with a proposal whose primary purpose is to leave the EU.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:32.611Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 170, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8544/prediction-of-our-community-on-nuclear-attack/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/). If that does happen, how predictable will it be in the days beforehand? To what extent will it be a bolt from the blue?\nIf there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for at least a day during the week before the detonation?\nThis question conditions on [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/) resolving positively; that is, this question resolves ambiguously unless that other one resolves positively. \nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThat other question resolves positively, and\n2-- \nFor a full 24 hour period sometime in the 168 hours (i.e., 7 times 24) before the first detonation that resolves that other question positively, the Community Prediction on that other question is greater than 20%\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:58.634Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Peaches by Justin Bieber win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-9", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Peaches by Justin Bieber has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 32602 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:04.314Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 206, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2229-at-close-of-business-on-4-may-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-march-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Same", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:24.563Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasters": 91, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" + }, { "title": "Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2097-before-13-february-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-in-iran-or-at-sea-between-the-national-military-or-law-enforcement-forces-of-iran-and-those-of-either-israel-or-a-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-member-state", @@ -346,7 +22656,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:35.989Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:39.855Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 282, "numforecasters": 128, @@ -354,6 +22664,16491 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Senegal in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Senegal is Macky Sall, who has been in power for 8.9 years. Senegal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0090797", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9909203, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Senegal", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Macky Sall", + "month_risk": "0.0007004", + "annual_risk": "0.0090797", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "21", + "leader_years": "8.916667", + "country_code": "SEN", + "country_abb": "SEN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2159-will-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-be-reelected-for-georgia-s-14th-congressional-district-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Rep. Greene was elected to her first term in 2020 and is expected to face a tough reelection campaign in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/575375-greene-challenger-raises-13m-in-latest-quarter), [Rome News-Tribune](https://www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/news/local/gop-challenger-files-to-face-marjorie-taylor-greene-in-primary/article_2f184f66-1582-11ec-a3ea-076b5bfebf93.html)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022). If the outcome is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If the outcome is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:28.987Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 188, + "numforecasters": 76, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **high in New York City** be over 42° on Friday?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NHIGH-260", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for February 04, 2022, is strictly greater than 42°, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see NHIGH in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nPlease be advised to check to see what temperatures have occurred previously in the day. While the market resolves based on the finalized report from the NWS, traders should use other data sources--including other preliminary NWS reporting--to inform their trades.\n\nThe Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM ET on February 04, 2022 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for February 04, 2022, or one week after February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY for February 04, 2022, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.030000000000000027, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 96, + "yes_ask": 99, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 4382 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system. The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Same", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:15:34.531Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4 + }, + "extra": { + "superforecastercommentary": "
    " + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:01.217Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 385, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:56.629Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 91, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_%28satellite%29)\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:10.731Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 162, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:40.070Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 99, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Vanuatu in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Vanuatu is Loughman, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Vanuatu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 41 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0048396", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9951604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Vanuatu", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Loughman", + "month_risk": "0.0003818", + "annual_risk": "0.0048396", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "41", + "leader_years": "0.9166667", + "country_code": "VUT", + "country_abb": "VAN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:02.790Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1124, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:54.758Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 454, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:56.199Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 172, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Macron and Le Pen", + "probability": 0.17894736842105263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", + "probability": 0.7684210526315789, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", + "probability": 0.010526315789473684, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neither of them", + "probability": 0.042105263157894736, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Macron and Le Pen, Macron, but not Le Pen, Le Pen, but not Macron, Neither of them" + }, + { + "title": "Will Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-7", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 8242 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:06.519Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 214, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/372-will-china-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-feature-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. Related questions. This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period August 2021 through March 2022. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a variation on this question with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment. Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea appear to be the hot battleground. In its Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba.\" In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands.\"Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizure involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Question format. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.***\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:31.545Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 341, + "numforecasters": 98, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden picks Harris for SCOTUS in 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A266", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/382-how-will-the-percentage-of-smic-revenue-from-14-28-nm-chips-or-smaller-change-over-the-next-three-years", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Context. China depends on the U.S. and its allies for advanced semiconductor chips and the manufacturing equipment required to make them, which leaves it vulnerable to U.S. export controls. To reduce its dependence, China has prioritized developing its domestic semiconductor industry. China is currently focusing on 28 nm chips—viewed as the dividing line between mid and high-end chips—and 14 nm chips. A recent GlobalData report states that for China, “achieving scale at 28nm this year will be highly significant in the longer-term process of developing a more complete Chinese domestic semiconductor ecosystem.” Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is China's leading manufacturer of semiconductor chips. It began commercial production of 28 nm chips in 2015 and 14 nm chips in 2019. Industry observers expect SMIC to ramp up its production of 28 nm chips in 2021 and of 14 nm chips in 2022. A bottleneck for China’s indigenous production of advanced chips is the photolithography equipment needed to manufacture them. SMIC currently relies on equipment from ASML, a Dutch company, which is yielding to U.S. pressure not to sell photolithography equipment to China. But Shanghai Microelectronic Equipment is expected to have photolithography equipment capable of making 28 nm chips by the 2021 Q4. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on SMIC quarterly financial reports. The historical and forecasted data is revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller as a percentage of total revenue. The percentage is calculated on a four-quarter rolling basis. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. ***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.* * * \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:27.227Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasters": 48, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" + }, + { + "title": "Will average daily **COVID-19 case numbers in France** be above 300,000 for the week ending February 07, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-017", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in France in the period between in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 is greater than 300,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 07, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 21, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 for France as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 6, + "spread": 6, + "shares_volume": 11438 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. On April 14, 2021, Coinbase went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:45.749Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 70, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in UK in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of UK is Johnson, who has been in power for 1.7 years. UK has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 109 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0019177", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9980823, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "UK", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Johnson", + "month_risk": "0.000161", + "annual_risk": "0.0019177", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "109", + "leader_years": "1.666667", + "country_code": "GBR", + "country_abb": "UKG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:06.965Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 261, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8140/india-have-200-nuclear-warheads-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.\nWill India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:49.581Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 53, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a \"by 2023\" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/).\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions against Iran to the extent previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2024-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2024-01-01; a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:43.264Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in St Lucia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of St Lucia is Chastanet, who has been in power for 4.8 years. St Lucia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0047986", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9952014, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "St Lucia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Chastanet", + "month_risk": "0.0004091", + "annual_risk": "0.0047986", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "4.75", + "country_code": "LCA", + "country_abb": "SLU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:36.927Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 255, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50 on May 2?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GAS-032", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.50 on May 02, 2022, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see GAS in the Rulebook for more information.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data (which is generally scheduled for Monday evenings), or May 09, 2022. The market will always close at 4:59 PM on the day of the expected release of the data.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for May 02, 2022, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 56, + "yes_ask": 60, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 5378 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2343177176906315801261129955497321", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7656822823093684198738870044502679", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "238", + "liquidity": "15498.32", + "tradevolume": "42166.65", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7550/truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nIs the sunflower conjecture true?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. It will resolve negatively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.\nIf there is no such proof by 2300-01-01, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2300-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-08 : changed the resolution date from 2121 to 2300.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:34.059Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-us-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.’ A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/eu-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the EU.\nWill the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves positively if any branch of the US federal government makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-20. It is not necessary for this proposal to recieve a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:41.432Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 27, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Saudi Arabia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Saudi Arabia is Salman, who has been in power for 6.2 years. Saudi Arabia has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 94 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0035519", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9964481, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Saudi Arabia", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Salman", + "month_risk": "0.0002008", + "annual_risk": "0.0035519", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "94", + "leader_years": "6.166667", + "country_code": "SAU", + "country_abb": "SAU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Zimbabwe in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Zimbabwe is Mnangagwa, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Zimbabwe has a party regime type which has lasted for 41 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0229224", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9770776, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Zimbabwe", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mnangagwa", + "month_risk": "0.0007521", + "annual_risk": "0.0229224", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "41", + "leader_years": "3.333333", + "country_code": "ZWE", + "country_abb": "ZIM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TN-05 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7724/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TN-05-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Tennessee's Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Morgan Ortagus", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robby Starbuck", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "\"Kid Rock\" Ritchie", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Quincy McKnight", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:34.581Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 736 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Ortagus, Robby Starbuck, \"Kid Rock\" Ritchie, Quincy McKnight" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's July meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-008", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's July 27, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their July 27, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.030000000000000027, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 95, + "yes_ask": 97, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 2452 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will RabbitHole airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-rabbithole-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if RabbitHole will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3251135161696994147413993687798559", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6748864838303005852586006312201441", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "61", + "liquidity": "508.95", + "tradevolume": "3060.65", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2170-what-will-be-the-closing-price-for-aluminum-per-metric-ton-mt-on-29-april-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides ([Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aluminum-makers-sound-alarm-u-223623072.html), [Capital.com](https://capital.com/aluminium-rebounds-as-china-power-worries-resurface)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LMAHDS03:COM), [London Metal Exchange](https://www.lme.com/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than $2,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$3,200 or higher", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:10.583Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 342, + "numforecasters": 124, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than $2,000, Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive, Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600, Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive, Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200, $3,200 or higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:43.797Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 453, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8299/fed-trimming-size-of-asset-portfolio/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. \nThis is creating a massive asset portfolio (“Reserve Bank credit”) that the debt holds, which was at $8.4 trillion as of Sep 29, according to this [release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm). The concern is such steps may contribute to price bubbles in markets and economic overheating due to excessive risk-taking. The opposite concern is that a quick asset selloff may create a market glut, lowering the cost of raising capital for companies.\nWill the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by Jan. 1, 2023, assets held by the Fed, according to estimates published [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm), are below $8 trillion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:17.496Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 53, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-10T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On December 20, 2015, Steve Harvey incorrectly announced Miss Colombia as the winner at the Miss Universe pageant before announcing the actual winner, Miss Philippines. While some believed this was an honest mistake, others thought it was a scripted move to generate buzz for the floundering pageant industry. Meanwhile, the internet responded with multiple [memes of Steve Harvey making mistakes](http://abc7ny.com/entertainment/the-funniest-reactions-to-steve-harvey-announcing-the-wrong-miss-universe-winner/1130613/); Steve Harvey himself even released a [meme poking fun at the mix-up](https://twitter.com/IAmSteveHarvey/status/680446179209916421/photo/1) and starred in a related [T-Mobile Superbowl ad](https://youtu.be/eI8YZdejPKg).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.", + "probability": 0.9620014460508962, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.", + "probability": 0.033854158022774763, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.", + "probability": 0.00414439592632885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge.", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake., The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge., The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together., Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge." + }, + { + "title": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8484/trafalgar-group-vs-538-polling-average-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some [have argued](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others [have suggested](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.\n[Trafalgar Group](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/) is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been [criticized](https://web.archive.org/web/20210915164337/https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1437984246703038465) by some [political](https://web.archive.org/web/20200828150653/https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299362704101175302) [forecasters](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309175524/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301894366886326272) as [inaccurate](https://web.archive.org/web/20201029155819/https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321843425268948992) or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a [C- pollster rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group) to an [A-](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/), and in a podcast episode Nate Silver [apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-gold-standard-for-polling-has-changed/).\nIf there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group.\nWill Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?\nResolution will be determined by comparing the performance of the most recent poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for each of the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections in the 2022 elections taking place on November 8, 2022, to the 538 polling average on the day after the final day of the corresponding Trafalgar poll. The difference between the top two candidates by final vote share will be compared to the difference between those candidates in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and final Trafalgar Polls. The average absolute value of the difference between actual result and polling will be calculated for each. If the Trafalgar Group average difference is closer to zero than that of FiveThirtyEight then this resolves positively.\nRaces where Trafalgar Group does not produce a poll within one month of the election date will not be included in the average. In the event the average difference for FiveThirtyEight and Trafalgar Group is the same this resolves ambiguously.\nResolution Example Using Fake Numbers:\nSuppose for three races the final results were as follows, where positive values mean the Democrat was ahead of the Republican in the final results and polls. TG stands for Trafalgar Group.\nRace Final Result TG Final Poll TG Error 538 Polling Avg 538 Error \nA\n+2.3\n+1.5\n0.8\n+3.1\n0.8\nB\n+1.2\n-1.1\n2.3\n+2.5\n1.3\nC\n-3.4\n-1.2\n2.2\n-4.0\n0.6\nBased on the above the average error of the Trafalgar Group would be 1.77 and the average error of the FiveThirtyEight polling average would be 0.90. If the example were all of the elections being counted this question would resolve negatively since the FiveThirtyEight error is closer to zero.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:35.213Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 31, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T19:28:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Madagascar in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Madagascar is Rajoelina, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Madagascar has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0210866", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9789134, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Madagascar", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Rajoelina", + "month_risk": "0.0009055", + "annual_risk": "0.0210866", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.23", + "regime_years": "7", + "leader_years": "2.166667", + "country_code": "MDG", + "country_abb": "MAG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2146-before-1-january-2023-will-a-ride-hailing-service-open-to-the-public-which-uses-autonomous-vehicles-be-launched-and-or-tested-on-public-roads-in-dubai", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, though testing may start sooner ([Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-to-become-first-city-outside-us-to-operate-driverless-vehicles), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/gm-backed-cruise-to-expand-self-driving-operations-to-dubai-in-2023.html), [Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-eyes-the-future-with-self-driving-cabs)). Testing must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:53.028Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 93, + "numforecasters": 55, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:58.817Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 87, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:21.583Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 256, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](http://%28https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/%29) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform. \nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:02.611Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:40.898Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "2024 DNOM is other than Biden or Harris", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A253", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7552/stone-mountain-defaced-before-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Stone Mountain](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-will-happen-stone-mountain-americas-largest-confederate-memorial-180964588/) in DeKalb County, Georgia, features the largest Confederate memorial anywhere. At roughly 25 by 60 meters, the monument is also the largest bas-relief carving in the world. It depicts Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his generals Robert E. Lee and \"Stonewall\" Jackson heroically on horseback.\nAfter the Charlottesville rally of 2017, and especially after the George Floyd protests of 2020, [removals and defacements of Confederate monuments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials) in the United States accelerated. Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacy Abrams has called Stone Mountain \"a blight on our state [that] should be removed,\" while Republican Governor Brian Kemp has pledged to \"protect Stone Mountain and historical monuments in Georgia from the radical left.\"\nWill the Stone Mountain Confederate monument be defaced or destroyed before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if the Confederate relief on Stone Mountain is destroyed, or defaced by irreversibly removing stone, before 2035. It must be defaced sufficiently such that damage is readily identifiable when the monument is viewed from a distance, or in a 1 megapixel photograph depicting the entire carved area. The question resolves negatively if Stone Mountain is not so defaced before 2035.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:39.265Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2143-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-us-10-yr-treasury-on-30-december-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 0% and 1%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 1% but lower than 2%", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 2% and 3%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 3% but lower than 4%", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4% or higher", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:56.299Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 389, + "numforecasters": 136, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 0%, Between 0% and 1%, inclusive, Higher than 1% but lower than 2%, Between 2% and 3%, inclusive, Higher than 3% but lower than 4%, 4% or higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Kiribati in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Kiribati is Mamau, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Kiribati has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0047842", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9952158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Kiribati", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mamau", + "month_risk": "0.0003635", + "annual_risk": "0.0047842", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "5", + "country_code": "KIR", + "country_abb": "KIR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7595/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Connecticut-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.8137254901960784, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.18627450980392157, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:01.985Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 12937 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:23.130Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 604, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-10-23T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 1000 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 5000 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield of 250kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:32.942Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 13, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win GA 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A160", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/inflation-above-3-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nWill the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?\nThis resolves according to data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:23.760Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 128, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **unemployment rate** (U-3) be above 3.8% in January?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/U3-011", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the unemployment rate (U-3) is above 3.8% in January 2022 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see U3 in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for January 2022, or February 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM ET. The market will always close on February 04, 2022 at 8:25 AM ET.. The resolution source is: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 58, + "yes_ask": 62, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 12226 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will Lebanon next hold parliamentary elections?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2198-when-will-lebanon-next-hold-parliamentary-elections", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Lebanese parliamentary elections are due in the spring of 2022, though political and economic circumstances have raised fears that they may be postponed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/the-aftermath-of-the-pandemic-will-make-politics-more-turbulent), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/28/mps-walk-out-lebanon-parliament-votes-for-march-2022-poll), [The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2021/11/17/lebanese-diaspora-registering-online-for-elections-say-they-have-a-duty-to-vote/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 April 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 June 2022", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:20.445Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 269, + "numforecasters": 124, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Not before 1 June 2022" + }, + { + "title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Polymarket has grown to host more than $100 million in total volume to date.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ coins, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market?\n---Market is considered to be \"wrongfully resolved\" if Polymarket confirms that or if a supermajority of Metaculus moderators/admins (2/3) thinks that the resolution does not correspond to resolution criteria.\n------This question will not resolve positively if the affected users are compensated within a week after the problem is noticed (e.g. on Polymarket Discord). \n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the platform ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their coins &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's coins would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \nIf no such qualifying event occurs before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n[Edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-27: clarified that a supermajority is 2/3.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:01.270Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 207, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:47.820Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 297, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Kamala Harris is nominated to SCOTUS by EOY 2024", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A256", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-11-29T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 1.9% on February 07, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TNOTE-006", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is above 1.9% on February 07, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see TNOTE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThese par yields are derived from bid-side market price quotations at or near 3:30 PM each trading day.\n\nThe market will expire and close and expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the data release for February 07, 2022, or one week following February 07, 2022.. The resolution source is: The Underlying for this contract is daily Treasury par yield curve rates for 10-year U.S. treasury notes for February 07, 2022 according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 9, + "yes_ask": 12, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 3834 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8049/n-s-existence--smoothness-and-compactness/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if any one of them is proven.\nImportantly for this question, the statements A and C are about the Navier-Stokes equations defined on the noncompact space , while B and D are about the equations defined on the compact torus .\nWill the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?\nThis question resolves positively if before the resolution date of the question there are proofs of either both A and D or both B and C. It resolves negatively if there are proofs of either both A and B or both C and D. If neither event takes place before the resolution date of the question, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:21.416Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:42.616Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 111, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Paraguay in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Paraguay is Benitez, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Paraguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0066832", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9933168, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Paraguay", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Benitez", + "month_risk": "0.0005693", + "annual_risk": "0.0066832", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "2.583333", + "country_code": "PRY", + "country_abb": "PAR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Rochelle Walensky remain CDC director through the end of the year?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7697/Will-Rochelle-Walensky-remain-CDC-director-through-the-end-of-the-year", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rochelle Walensky holds the office of Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:21.890Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 5980 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8444/tesla-most-valuable-traded-co-before-23/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), and Google parent Alphabet.\nWill Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:11.998Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 128, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will Boris Johson officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160740937", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "For settlement purposes, leading the party in an \"acting leader\" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual's tenure as party leader. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void (Updated - 20/06/2020)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jan 2022 - Mar 2022", + "probability": 0.1684901531728665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "April 2022 - June 2022", + "probability": 0.3209336250911743, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "July 2022 or later", + "probability": 0.5105762217359592, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.258Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 882174.31 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jan 2022 - Mar 2022, April 2022 - June 2022, July 2022 or later" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:46.454Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 91, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.\nWill George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?\nThis question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:11.731Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 55, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_%28structure%29):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:26.418Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 108, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.030000000000000027, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:53.749Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 133, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Eric Schmitt", + "probability": 0.37837837837837834, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Greitens", + "probability": 0.34234234234234234, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vicky Hartzler", + "probability": 0.1081081081081081, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jason Smith", + "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Billy Long", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark McCloskey", + "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Blunt", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ann Wagner", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Kehoe", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Ashcroft", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carl Edwards", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Brunner", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:07.905Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 365070 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Jason Smith, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Roy Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by July 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3979545763085703045809620525035995", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6020454236914296954190379474964005", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "41", + "liquidity": "61246.96", + "tradevolume": "6918.44", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:53.722Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 27938 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8334/us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis.\nWill spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion [according to the US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2021&categories=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=).\nThis question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:46.595Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 66, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:22.938Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 162, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2250-before-1-december-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Tensions between the US and Iran remain high ([NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/tensions-rising-us-iran-new-years-seen-potential-flashpoint-rcna9347), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/iran-nuclear-talks-deadlock-risks-dangerous-vacuum)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:37.840Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasters": 114, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Optimism have a token by May 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-optimism-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Optimism will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If Optimism have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4054527376201705232031785858032086", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5945472623798294767968214141967914", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "40", + "liquidity": "1300.00", + "tradevolume": "3760.80", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/25-year-lifespan-increase-discovery-by-2067/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nBy 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:12.228Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 111, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Republican other than Jordan, Mandel, and Renacci", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A86", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Kazakhstan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Kazakhstan is Tokayev, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Kazakhstan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0044534", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9955466, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Kazakhstan", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Tokayev", + "month_risk": "0.0002874", + "annual_risk": "0.0044534", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "2", + "country_code": "KAZ", + "country_abb": "KZK" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2040-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 3,800", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4,100 but less than 4,400", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4,700 but less than 5,000", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5,000 or more", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:54.796Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 502, + "numforecasters": 77, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3,800, Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive, More than 4,100 but less than 4,400, Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive, More than 4,700 but less than 5,000, 5,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related question. This question is cross-posted on Predictit.Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:34.361Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 966, + "numforecasters": 214, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:31.872Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 229, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.\nWill China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.68, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:44.455Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 72, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Eritrea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Eritrea is Afeworki, who has been in power for 27.8 years. Eritrea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0143098", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9856902, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Eritrea", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Afeworki", + "month_risk": "0.0009478", + "annual_risk": "0.0143098", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "27.83333", + "country_code": "ERI", + "country_abb": "ERI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:09.996Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $5 billion in volume in January 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-5-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $5,000,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $5.0b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0001027449049903288289923265000630622", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9998972550950096711710076734999369", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "275", + "liquidity": "49.83", + "tradevolume": "15326.21", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/from-nate-silver-will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requirement-on-us-domestic-flights-on-november-8-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market about whether there will be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022, posited by Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1476930984931168276?s=21.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if on November 8, 2022, all ordinary domestic airplane travellers are required by law to wear a mask that completely covers the mouth and nose while using airplane transportation. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor this market to resolve to “Yes”, the mandate must be issued by a federal agency, such as the CDC or TSA - not solely by airplane companies.\n\nPlease note, if there is a mask mandate that is applicable to all ordinary passengers but vaccinated people, it will NOT be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes.”\n\nNote also that the mask mandates in question do not have to be due to COVID-19. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4260267588259354057787644928270408", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5739732411740645942212355071729592", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "132", + "liquidity": "3450.85", + "tradevolume": "10418.21", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US Income Inequality Increase by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/income-inequality-increase-from-2019-to-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:25.025Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 275, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Montero by Lil Nas X win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-7", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Montero by Lil Nas X has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 15296 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as \"extinction\".\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to zero within 50 years of the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations. For simplicity, we will consider detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of another detonation (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the nuclear conflict wasn't the sole cause, a major cause, or even a contributing factor in the eventual extinction event. (This is because it would be useful for this question to capture instances in which the nuclear conflict merely contributed to rather than solely or directly causing extinction, but it seems hard to capture that neatly except via this more expansive resolution criteria.) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:58.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Tim Ryan", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A87", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Why was Stonehenge built?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "Stonehenge may be the most famous of all megaliths. Various theories attribute its construction to Druids, Merlin, and even aliens. Although it is clear that Stonehenge was deliberately constructed, no one really knows why. This analysis focuses on the original purpose for which it was built, irrespective of what its functions may have been after it was constructed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.", + "probability": 0.8105659668974038, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stonehenge was built as a burial site.", + "probability": 0.1313461492124186, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.", + "probability": 0.056899570682862534, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.", + "probability": 0.0011883132073152599, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe.", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship., Stonehenge was built as a burial site., Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker., Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing., Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe." + }, + { + "title": "Will Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8035/russia-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The National Interest [has reported](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-fines-pro-afghanistan-protesters-pursues-relations-taliban-192822) that Russia is pursuing friendly relations with the Taliban.\nWill Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Russian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:55.088Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:23.139Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 158, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:12.398Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 190, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:06.326Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 137, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a **recession** start by Q2 2022? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECSS-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is strictly less than zero in at least one of Q3 2021, Q4 2021, Q1 2022, and Q2 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see RECSS in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.695Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 22, + "yes_ask": 23, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 206526 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2202-what-will-be-the-price-of-bitcoin-on-30-november-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 November 2022 (PT) as reported by [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $30,000.00", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$110,000.00 or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:14.031Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 296, + "numforecasters": 110, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30,000.00, Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive, More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00, Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive, More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00, $110,000.00 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that the [rockets carried sarin](http://info.publicintelligence.net/UN-SyriaChemicalAttack.pdf), a deadly nerve agent used as a chemical weapon.\nThere was initial skepticism that the Syrian government would have ordered such an attack, risking retaliation by the US. But information published by the US, UN, and Human Rights Watch during the following weeks convinced Western public opinion that the Syrian government was indeed responsible. This information included:\n1--Proof that the [volcano rockets found in Zamalka were locally manufactured by the government](https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack). \n2--[Rocket trajectories reported by the UN that were shown to intersect at a Syrian army base](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/world/middleeast/un-data-on-gas-attack-points-to-assads-top-forces.html). \n3--Detection of sarin, which was known to be held by the Syrian government. \n4--[Reports by the US government that the rockets had been launched from government territory](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21). \n5--Finally, [Syria’s agreement to dismantle their chemical weapons program](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Destruction_of_Syria%27s_chemical_weapons) was further seen as an admission of guilt. At that point the issue mostly disappeared from public discourse. \nHowever, over time, some of this evidence has been found to be unreliable, while new evidence has surfaced that seems to better support the hypothesis that opposition forces were behind the attack. These include:\n1--Analysis of the rocket’s range showing that it could not have been launched from the army base initially suspected as the origin. \n2--[Errors in the UN trajectory calculations](http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/) that, together with the new rocket range calculation, point to a launch from opposition territory. \n3--Evidence of multiple instances in which the opposition used sarin or [tried to acquire it](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/turkish-syrian-jihadis-chemical-court.html). \n4--[Videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcbBTjh2EU) apparently showing an opposition group (Liwa al-Islam) launching chemical rockets, which match the time and location of the attack on Ghouta. \nThis attack, and others that followed, are the subject of heated international debate, which significantly increased the risk of a US-Russian military conflict on at least three occasions. The world clearly needs an unbiased analysis of this case using advanced inference tools.\n\nUpdate: In June 2021, the videos of the event were corroborated as authentic. They were matched to a field within opposition controlled territory, and that field has been shown to be in the intersection of seven trajectories calculated from images of the impact sites. [See additional evidence](https://blog.rootclaim.com/new-evidence-2013-sarin-attack-in-ghouta-syria).\n\nWe now consider this issue closed, and no longer see a need for a probabilistic analysis, as the new discoveries are clear enough to understand using standard human reasoning. We're leaving the analysis here for reference, and recording our original estimate: 87% Opposition, 13% Syrian army.\n\nNote: While we don’t expect anyone to apply at this point, the Rootclaim $100,000 debate challenge is still available for this issue. [Read more here](http://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.", + "probability": 0.036109738906225514, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.", + "probability": 0.9638902610937745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.709Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack., Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack." + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-08 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7699/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-08-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Morgan Luttrell", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Christian Collins", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jonathan Hullihan", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan McKaughan", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Taylor Whichard", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:27.017Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 4653 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Luttrell, Christian Collins, Jonathan Hullihan, Dan McKaughan, Taylor Whichard" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8050/israel-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. [The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1435398469292904450)\nWill Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that Israel has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:26.594Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:54.094Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 285, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Guinea is Conde, who has been in power for 10.3 years. Guinea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0234089", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9765911, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Guinea", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Conde", + "month_risk": "0.0032634", + "annual_risk": "0.0234089", + "risk_change_percent": "0.23", + "regime_years": "10", + "leader_years": "10.25", + "country_code": "GIN", + "country_abb": "GUI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in India in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of India is Narendra Modi, who has been in power for 6.8 years. India has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 74 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0034211", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9965789, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "India", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Narendra Modi", + "month_risk": "0.0010281", + "annual_risk": "0.0034211", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "74", + "leader_years": "6.833333", + "country_code": "IND", + "country_abb": "IND" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:34.409Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 285, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Maldives in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Maldives is Ibrahim Solih, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Maldives has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 12 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0070793", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9929207, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Maldives", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ibrahim Solih", + "month_risk": "0.0017819", + "annual_risk": "0.0070793", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "12", + "leader_years": "2.333333", + "country_code": "MDV", + "country_abb": "MAD" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win NH 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A162", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Iraq in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Iraq is Al-Kadhimi, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Iraq has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 9 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0041431", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9958569, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Iraq", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Al-Kadhimi", + "month_risk": "0.0003187", + "annual_risk": "0.0041431", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "9", + "leader_years": "0.8333333", + "country_code": "IRQ", + "country_abb": "IRQ" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\nDespite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".\nBy 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?\nThis question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.\nAnswers to the Gallup poll which refer to space or space governance include:\n---Any answer which refers to an aerospace organization, program or object, such as “NASA” or “Sputnik”. \n---Any answer which directly refers to something related to space governance. This does not include indirect references, such as “foreign policy” (even if space governance is at the time an important part of foreign policy). This is to be decided by Metaculus moderators. \nIf the Gallup poll is discontinued the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:45.884Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 47, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-07-31T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:37.409Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 203, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:22.251Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:40.426Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 87466 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:30.843Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 65, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win NV 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A161", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Croatia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Croatia is Plenkovic, who has been in power for 4.4 years. Croatia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 20 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0031209", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9968791, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Croatia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Plenkovic", + "month_risk": "0.000252", + "annual_risk": "0.0031209", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "20", + "leader_years": "4.416667", + "country_code": "HRV", + "country_abb": "CRO" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.\nWill global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?\nThis question resolves positive if trade as a percentage of GWP, [as published by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), exceeds 61% between 2020 and 2025, inclusive; otherwise it resolves negative. Resolution would be ambiguous if the World Bank ceases to exist or publish this data and no alternate data source can be found.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:19.997Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 32, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many incumbent governors will lose primaries in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7639/How-many-incumbent-governors-will-lose-primaries-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of incumbent state governors who, in the 2022 primaries, contest and lose a gubernatorial primary election.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, only the primary for the major party that the Governor represents shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Governor to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate.\nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "0", + "probability": 0.30476190476190473, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "1", + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2", + "probability": 0.19999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "3", + "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4", + "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "6", + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "7", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "8", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "9", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "10 or more", + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:06.530Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 79483 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will **Turkey join the European Union** by June 29, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TEU-0001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Turkey joins the European Union by 6:00 PM ET on June 29, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see TEU in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The list of member countries of the European Union. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.695Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 2, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 7084 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-december-31-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2556898621704412336889538171054431", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7443101378295587663110461828945569", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "56", + "liquidity": "819.34", + "tradevolume": "3043.87", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hillary Clinton win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1440999038730176751768368919698672", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8559000961269823248231631080301328", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "17", + "liquidity": "1503.10", + "tradevolume": "3354.48", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Austria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Austria is Kurz, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Austria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 65 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0012354", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9987646, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Austria", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Kurz", + "month_risk": "0.0001006", + "annual_risk": "0.0012354", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "65", + "leader_years": "1.166667", + "country_code": "AUT", + "country_abb": "AUS" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Denmark in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Denmark is Mette Frederiksen, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Denmark has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 120 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0009091", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9990909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Denmark", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mette Frederiksen", + "month_risk": "0.0000753", + "annual_risk": "0.0009091", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "120", + "leader_years": "1.75", + "country_code": "DNK", + "country_abb": "DEN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.\nWill China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:53.642Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:10.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2036-01-01T20:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-02T02:14:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:00.036Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 143, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:56.917Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13914 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:22.371Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 96, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be prime minister of the Czech Republic on July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7471/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-the-Czech-Republic-on-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Petr Fiala", + "probability": 0.9514563106796116, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrej Babiš", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ivan Bartoš", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tomio Okamura", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vojtěch Filip", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jan Hamáček", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:38.439Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 21579 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Petr Fiala, Andrej Babiš, Ivan Bartoš, Tomio Okamura, Vojtěch Filip, Jan Hamáček" + }, + { + "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:35.450Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 500, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8534/north-korean-icbm-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\"\nSee also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests).\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)\nNote that:\n--- \nThe missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice\n--- \nEither a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution\n--- \nFor positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead\nSee also:\n*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:07.242Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 48, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 2028", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A152", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-14T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/cannabis-removed-from-us-schedule-i-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year.\nWill cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:05.913Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 543, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:58.743Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 47, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Mike Pence", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A182", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9415/hillary-clinton-to-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.\nWill Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?\nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:35:58.754Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-07T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:30.585Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 132, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8843/-of-plant-based-beef---of-conventional-beef/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America. \nHowever, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods. \nAs plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products. \nAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices.\nWill the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef before April 22, 2023. Prices should be calculated in US dollars, unadjusted for inflation. \nThe average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef ([using their 12 ounce pack](https://impossiblefoods.com/products/burger/12-oz-pack)) and Beyond Meat ground beef ([using their Beef Bulk Pack](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/beyond-beef-six-pack?variant=beef). If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.\nWe are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).\nIf either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.\nConventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm) (the \"U.S. city average\" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:04.450Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 59, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Sour by Olivia Rodrgio win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-8", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Sour by Olivia Rodrigo has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 41874 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7857/us-census-shows-population-decline-by-2070/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [United States Census](https://www.census.gov/) takes a census every 10 years. In the [most recent census in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census), the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to [some developed nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate) whose populations are declining, though [population growth in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) has slowed and the 7.4% is one of the lowest-ever decade-on-decade growth rates ever recorded. Recently, [US fertility has hit record lows](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/u-s-fertility-rate-explained/) though it is still not as low as [countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate) [Immigration to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States) is a significant source of population growth, especially in contrast with countries like Japan.\nWill a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?\nThis question will resolve if a Census conducted before 2071 shows a drop in US population over the previous Census, according to [official statistics from the United States Census Bureau.](https://www.census.gov/) If the Census Bureau changes its name or merges into another entity, those statistics will be used instead.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:32.988Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 11, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2076-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-warren-buffett-or-sergey-brin", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Warren Buffett", + "probability": "0.4219088411105100743195985937680114", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sergey Brin", + "probability": "0.5780911588894899256804014062319886", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "38", + "liquidity": "3300.00", + "tradevolume": "1896.49", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Warren Buffett, Sergey Brin" + }, + { + "title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:03.531Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 76, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:55.902Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 375, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:45.562Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?\nIf there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?\nThis question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:47.997Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 93, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9214/kassym-jomart-tokayev-exits-presidency-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On January 2nd, 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan led to [local protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_protests), which quickly led to nationwide demonstrations including in the nation’s capital. The demands of the protesters are the decrease in fuel prices, but now include the resignation of both the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and the cabinet and also the removal of criminal immunity of the former president Nursultan Nazabayev. A state of emergency has been declared, and the Mamin Cabinet, the current government of the country, resigned on January 5th. \nLater on January 5th, Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as the Chairman of the Security Council. [Tokayev succeeded him](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/).\nThere have been reports of [dozens of police and civilian deaths](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/protesters-police-die-amid-kazakhstan-unrest), alongside widespread arson and looting. 3,000 Russian paratroopers have [arrived in Kazakhstan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/shots-heard-in-kazakhstan-as-protests-enter-third-day).\nWill Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for a period of 1 week or more, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not hold the office the President of Kazahkstan (due to his resignation, a forceful coup, or through any means). This period must occur entirely in the year 2022 to resolve this question positively.\nIn the case of ambiguity (such as if more than one person claims to be the president), this question will consider Tokayev to remain the president if he has control of over 50% of Kazakh police forces or military forces.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:23.690Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 77, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-21T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8118/solana-stays-a-top-10-cryptocurrency-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.\nAt time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – [$43b USD](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/) – per [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/). For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is [Polkadot](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/polkadot-new/) (DOT), with $25b USD market cap.\nWill Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?\nPer [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/), Solana (SOL) is ranked within the top-10 cryptocurrencies, as determined by market cap on Dec 31, 2022.\nIf Solana drops below the top-10 at some point before Dec 31, 2022, but is within the top-10 at time of resolution on Dec 31, 2022, then this question still resolves positively. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:36.785Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a bill enacting **paid parental leave** become law by the end of March?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/PLEAVE-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If a bill enacting paid parental leave becomes law between Issuance and March 31, 2022, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No. Please see PLEAVE in Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including the definition of paid parental leave and many examples of what constitutes such a bill. All market participants should familiarize themselves with these legally binding rules before trading on the market.\n\nThe Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event represented at the Underlying that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion (i.e. a bill enacting paid parental leave becoming law reported by Congress.gov), the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data (Congress.gov updates) for March 31, 2022, and April 07, 2022. . The resolution source is: Bills that have become law between Issuance and March 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 2, + "yes_ask": 4, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 13788 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Micronesia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Micronesia is Panuelo, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Micronesia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0062901", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9937099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Micronesia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Panuelo", + "month_risk": "0.0005942", + "annual_risk": "0.0062901", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "1.833333", + "country_code": "FSM", + "country_abb": "FSM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:38.529Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 163, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:40.598Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 186, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-04-10T03:32:13Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Justice by Justin Bieber win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-3", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe) by Justin Bieber has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 12800 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one thousand offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 4 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 4 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:17.623Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2128-what-percentage-of-us-retail-sales-will-be-made-online-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question ([Digital Commerce 360](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/coronavirus-impact-online-retail/), [Supermarket News](https://www.supermarketnews.com/online-retail/survey-convenience-drives-online-grocery-shopping-more-covid)). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce\" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html), see \"Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report\"). For the fourth quarter of 2020, the Bureau reported E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 13.6% ([Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table](https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/21q2table1.xls), xls file download).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 12.5%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 15.5%", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:21.486Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasters": 61, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive, More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%, Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive, More than 15.5%" + }, + { + "title": "Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/indiaisraelpakistan-sign-npt-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill India, Israel or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2024, at least one of India, Israel or Pakistan sign the NPT, according to reputable sources. \nThis does not require that any of these states actually [accede](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to the NPT or even that it is seen as likely that they will do so.\nSee also\n---[Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:40.500Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:22.182Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 548, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8483/trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.\nIf the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?\nThis question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:29.952Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 241, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-12T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:59.938Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 89, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=50 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A170", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Kosovo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Kosovo is Hoti, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Kosovo has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0074229", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9925771, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Kosovo", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Hoti", + "month_risk": "0.0011114", + "annual_risk": "0.0074229", + "risk_change_percent": "0.04", + "regime_years": "13", + "leader_years": "0.75", + "country_code": "UNK", + "country_abb": "KOS" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:13.774Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 795, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bahrain in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Bahrain is Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah, who has been in power for 22.0 years. Bahrain has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0046588", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9953412, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Bahrain", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah", + "month_risk": "0.0003778", + "annual_risk": "0.0046588", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "50", + "leader_years": "22", + "country_code": "BHR", + "country_abb": "BAH" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7659/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Illinois-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:44.417Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 12436 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will Rudy Giuliani testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee by Mar. 31?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7507/Will-Rudy-Giuliani-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-by-Mar-31", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rudy Giuliani testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.\nLive testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. \nShould Mr. Giuliani appear at any hearing, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Giuliani submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:53.771Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 26159 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:34.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 299, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:20.287Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 296, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9458/eliciting-latent-knowledge-50k-prize-awarded/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/), posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\nRoughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \nELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\nTo win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\nWe’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\nWe’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k).\nWill an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?\nThis resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the [relevant LessWrong post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:35.720Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 51, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T15:29:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:33.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 188, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2113-what-will-be-the-producer-price-index-for-internet-advertising-sales-in-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After years of steady declines, the price of Internet advertising began to rise in the summer of 2020 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU365), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ppi.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Internet advertising space sales, excluding Internet ads sold by print publishers\" (Commodity code 36-5) in June 2022, expected in July 2022 ([BLS - PPI Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm)). For June 2021, the unadjusted index was 65.3 ([BLS PPI Report - June 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-june-2021.pdf), see page 24). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"36 Advertising space and time sales.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"365 Internet advertising sales, excluding Internet advertising sold by print publishers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Add to selection,\" and \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 60.0", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "84.0 or higher", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:34.054Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 141, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 60.0, Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive, Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0, Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive, Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0, 84.0 or higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Burundi in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Burundi is Ndayishimiye, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Burundi has a personal regime type which has lasted for 6 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0163891", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9836109, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Burundi", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ndayishimiye", + "month_risk": "0.0009003", + "annual_risk": "0.0163891", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "6", + "leader_years": "0.75", + "country_code": "BDI", + "country_abb": "BUI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bosnia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Bosnia is Dodik, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Bosnia has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 25 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0034701", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9965299, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Bosnia", + "regime_type": "Foreign", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Dodik", + "month_risk": "0.0002961", + "annual_risk": "0.0034701", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "25", + "leader_years": "0.3333333", + "country_code": "BIH", + "country_abb": "BOS" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Katie Britt", + "probability": 0.4587155963302752, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mo Brooks", + "probability": 0.25688073394495414, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Durant", + "probability": 0.2293577981651376, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lynda Blanchard", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Shelby", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Merrill", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roy Moore", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Sessions", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jessica Taylor", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:45.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 138304 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Katie Britt, Mo Brooks, Mike Durant, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, Jessica Taylor" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nWill the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is less than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be more lethal than Delta.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.020000000000000018, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:37.587Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1367, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:26.501Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 166, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2187-when-will-the-us-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-2-3-million-or-more-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/international-travel-will-get-easier-but-restrictions-will-remain)). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 ([Sorted TSA Data Download](https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Formatted_TSA_Throughput_Data_13_October_2021.xlsx), see both sheets).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 January 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 October 2022", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:32.808Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 420, + "numforecasters": 158, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022, Not before 1 October 2022" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:33.618Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 306, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, who will succeed French prime minister Jean Castex?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "The \"Jean Castex\" option will win if no one else succeeds him as prime minister in 2021. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jean Castex", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another man", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A woman", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.971Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jean Castex, Another man, A woman" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2141-before-1-january-2023-will-the-taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-officially-change-its-name-to-include-the-word-taiwan", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to \"Taiwan Representative Office\" ([Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States](https://www.roc-taiwan.org/us_en/index.html), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-13/China-opposes-U-S-pondering-of-Taiwan-office-name-change--13wwMHtiKXu/index.html), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-letting-taiwan-change-name-its-office-united-states-mistake)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:59.916Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasters": 44, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:35.274Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 70, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2041, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:34.847Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T20:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T02:14:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-28 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7660/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-28-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Twenty-Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jessica Cisneros", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Henry Cuellar", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tannya Benavides", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:49.513Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 44463 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jessica Cisneros, Henry Cuellar, Tannya Benavides" + }, + { + "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:58.645Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 104, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/constitutionality-of-bank-secrecy-act/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/) \nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_%281976%29), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.\nIf the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?\nIf by 2070-01-01, the Supreme Court of The United States hears a case which challenges the constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act of 1970, this question will resolve positively if the court decides it is constitutional. If the BSA is challenged on multiple points and the court finds any part of the act unconstitutional, this question will resolve negatively. If no qualifying cases are decided before 2070-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf a case is dismissed or ruled on procedural grounds, such cases will be ignored for the purposes of this question. If the BSA is repealed through legislation, this question will resolve ambiguously \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:30.058Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jerome Powell", + "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lael Brainard", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Roger Ferguson", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Raphael Bostic", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "William Spriggs", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mary Daly", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:08.403Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1743693 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard, Roger Ferguson, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, William Spriggs, Mary Daly" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9171/more-than-35-fusion-corps-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Optimism about the viability of nuclear fusion has been growing. But it is unlikely that any of the key milestones, [such as energy breakeven or commercial viability](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/), will be achieved this year (or perhaps this decade). \nAs a proxy for whether the fusion industry continues to gather pace, then, this question looks at the number of fusion companies in existence. According to [a report by the Fusion Industry Association (FIA)](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry), that number has gone up from one in 1997, to five in 2007, to 23 by 2020. \nAt the time of writing, there are \"at least 35\" global fusion companies, of which 25 are members of the FIA. Will that number go up in 2022?\nWill there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023, the [Fusion Industry Association](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry) reports that there are more than 35 fusion companies in the world. Otherwise (including if the FIA does not report any updated figures in that time) it will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:21.396Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 56, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-04T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-31T00:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "New Hampshire", + "probability": 0.7383177570093458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nevada", + "probability": 0.12149532710280374, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "South Carolina", + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Iowa", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:04.070Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 89917 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa" + }, + { + "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:00.858Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 113, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8611/china-russia-war-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a China-Russia war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\n--- \n[Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:53.652Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be Russia's annual rate of inflation in September 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2219-what-will-be-russia-s-annual-inflation-rate-in-september-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As in many other countries, inflation has been on the rise in Russia in 2021 ([Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/11/19/rising-inflation-gives-boost-to-russias-discount-retailers-a75592), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-24/faster-russia-inflation-adds-to-case-for-big-hike-as-ruble-drops)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data for September 2021 when monthly IMF data for September 2022 are first available, expected by November 2022 ([IMF](https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015892)). On the page, change \"Country\" on the upper left of the page to \"Russian Federation,\" then see \"Consumer Price Index, All items.\" For August 2021 (2021M08), the annual rate of inflation was 6.69617%, calculated by dividing the index figure for August 2021 (2021M08) by the index figure for August 2020 (2020M08) and subtracting 1.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 3.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 9.0%", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:45.603Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 137, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive, Higher than 9.0%" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "in Q1, 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "in Q2, 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "in Q3, 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "in Q4, 2021", + "probability": 0.41379310344827586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Perhaps later", + "probability": 0.5862068965517241, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "in Q1, 2021, in Q2, 2021, in Q3, 2021, in Q4, 2021, Perhaps later" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Vermont Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7607/Who-will-win-the-2022-Vermont-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Vermont.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Peter Welch", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Niki Thran", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Miro Weinberger", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:17.569Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 876 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Peter Welch, Niki Thran, Miro Weinberger" + }, + { + "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).\nWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war between 2020-01-01 and 2050-01-01. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n[2021-11-23]: Edited to clarify the definition of \"deliberate\" detonations.\n[Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:\nIn an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\nIn an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:28.398Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 163, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic nomination for attorney general?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7592/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-nomination-for-attorney-general", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of New York. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Letitia James", + "probability": 0.9074074074074073, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shelley Mayer", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Zephyr Teachout", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Maria Vullo", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Gonzalez", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Melinda Katz", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Gianaris", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Clyde Vanel", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Daniel Goldman", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Laura Gillen", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:55.959Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 51619 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Shelley Mayer, Zephyr Teachout, Maria Vullo, Eric Gonzalez, Melinda Katz, Michael Gianaris, Clyde Vanel, Andrew Cuomo, Daniel Goldman, Laura Gillen" + }, + { + "title": "How many votes to confirm Robert Califf as FDA commissioner by April 15?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7700/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Robert-Califf-as-FDA-commissioner-by-April-15", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Robert Califf (the \"Nominee\") to be Commissioner of Food and Drugs at the Department of Health and Human Services (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"46 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"63 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "46 or fewer", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "47 or 48", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "49 or 50", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51 or 52", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53 or 54", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55 or 56", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "57 or 58", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "59 or 60", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "61 or 62", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "63 or more", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:31.372Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 3803 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:38.092Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 132, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:54.470Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 570, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Kyrgyzstan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Kyrgyzstan is Sadyr Japarov, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Kyrgyzstan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 0 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0159567", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9840433, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Kyrgyzstan", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Sadyr Japarov", + "month_risk": "0.0042401", + "annual_risk": "0.0159567", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.09", + "regime_years": "0", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "KGZ", + "country_abb": "KYR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:17.430Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 208271 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Niger in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Niger is Issoufou, who has been in power for 9.9 years. Niger has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0402544", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9597456, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Niger", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Issoufou", + "month_risk": "0.0054292", + "annual_risk": "0.0402544", + "risk_change_percent": "0.04", + "regime_years": "10", + "leader_years": "9.916667", + "country_code": "NER", + "country_abb": "NIR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Luiz Lula da Silva", + "probability": 0.6454545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.20909090909090908, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sergio Moro", + "probability": 0.07272727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Flávio Dino", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ciro Gomes", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Guilherme Boulos", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marina Silva", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "João Doria", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "João Amoêdo", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Fernando Haddad", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eduardo Leite", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:02.794Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 73982 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Luiz Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Sergio Moro, Flávio Dino, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marina Silva, João Doria, João Amoêdo, Fernando Haddad, Eduardo Leite" + }, + { + "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:02.861Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least two NYT authors collectively make at least 100 falsifiable forecasts by 3 Feb 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A99", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Consider figure 15 from [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14701.pdf#page=18).\nSome people (arguably the authors of this paper) predict that as we scale models past GPT-3's size (the 10^11 parameter learning curve, models with parameter count X trained on X elapsed tokens will score close to the L(D) line at X elapsed tokens.\nWe are interested in whether instead the trendline will \"plateau\" or at least be substantially slower than the line L(D) by the end of the next 3 orders of magnitude of parameter count. For the sake of specificity, let's say substantially slower = less than half as steep as L(D) on this graph.\nIf and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?\nThis question resolves positively if the relevant experiment is done and reported (extending this graph, or providing equivalent data) and the slope of the learning curve for the 10^14 parameter model around 10^14 data points (Say, from 10^12 to 10^14) is less than half as steep as the slope of L(D). It resolves negatively if instead the slope is at least half as steep as L(D).\nThis question also resolves positively (or negatively) if it becomes uncontroversial what would have happened if the experiment had been done. For example, maybe other experiments will provide much more evidence about neural net scaling trends in general, such that it will be easy to calculate what would happen with this one in particular.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if by 2050 no one has performed the experiment AND there is no consensus about what would have happened if someone had.\nThe Metaculus moderators are the judge of final resort for determining whether and how to resolve this question.\nFor more context, see the comment threads below (Search for \"It's a big deal.\")\nIt is important that the data used to extend the graph be of similar quality. Obviously if we just threw in 10^14 tokens of basic arithmetic problems, the model would get good at basic arithmetic but not at anything else, and it's unclear whether the result would be on-trend or not. Ideally we'd have 10e14 tokens of diverse internet text, scanned books, chat logs, emails, etc. If this experiment gets done with different-quality data, the question becomes whether it gives us enough evidence to uncontroversial predict what would have happened if we had done it with similar-quality data. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:08.136Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 52, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2037-02-23T11:37:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:37:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Someone other R is 2024 POTUS", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A246", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 100 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield per weapon of 500kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:43.252Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win NC 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A154", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:47.550Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 579, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Lithuania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Lithuania is Nauseda, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Lithuania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0028476", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9971524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Lithuania", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nauseda", + "month_risk": "0.0002419", + "annual_risk": "0.0028476", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "1.666667", + "country_code": "LTU", + "country_abb": "LIT" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1200365460597007056725917119626947", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8799634539402992943274082880373053", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "230", + "liquidity": "2156.08", + "tradevolume": "20666.67", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:17.418Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 161, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8515/by-2050-genetic-engineering-to-raise-iq/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that.\nBy 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?\nThis question resolves positively if by January 1, 2050, there is at least one commercially available genetic engineering technique shown to raise a patient's IQ by 10 or more points on average. This procedure must be effective on >66% of the public; an intervention focused on patients with [down syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), for example, does not qualify. Studies from medical journals, statements by government agencies or public health officials may be used as resolution sources if Metaculus Admins find them to be credible.\nA procedure can be considered \"commercially available\" if it is available to the general public for a total cost of less than 25% of the median household income for that nation in that year. \"Genetic engineering techniques\" include embryo selection, gametogenesis, gene therapy, CRISPR editing, and other forms of gene editing or artificial selection. For example in the case of embryo selection, the technique may resolve this question positively if it can select embryos with an average of >10 IQ gain over the median embryo for that patient. Adverse side effects of these procedures are irrelevant for the purposes of this question (with the exception that the patient must typically survive for at least 5 years following the procedure).\nResolution may be delayed up to 2060 to confirm the effectiveness of the genetic engineering techniques. If studies are unclear at this point, the resolution may be delayed, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:43.292Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 64, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T18:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T18:57:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol. \nWill Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?\nIf there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:34.723Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 97, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win FL 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A156", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 26 August 2022, according to Bloomberg?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2247-what-will-be-the-closing-price-per-barrel-for-west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-on-26-august-2022-according-to-bloomberg", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As the world looks to alternative fuels, oil prices remain key to the energy industry ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/energy-investment-needs-to-increase-so-bills-and-taxes-must-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $55.00", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $70.00 but less than $85.00", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $100.00 but less than $115.00", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$115.00 or more", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:43.086Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 149, + "numforecasters": 95, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $55.00, Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $85.00, Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive, More than $100.00 but less than $115.00, $115.00 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump be charged with a crime in Georgia by Sept. 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7715/Will-Trump-be-charged-with-a-crime-in-Georgia-by-Sept-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if the State of Georgia, or any county, municipality, or other subdivision thereof, unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. \nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:06.230Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13709 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:38.353Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1052, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Donald Trump", + "probability": 0.3577981651376146, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.2568807339449541, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Haley", + "probability": 0.07339449541284401, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pence", + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tim Scott", + "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Cruz", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kristi Noem", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marco Rubio", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Josh Hawley", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Glenn Youngkin", + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Larry Hogan", + "probability": 0.009174311926605502, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:26.501Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 22737157 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jr., Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Glenn Youngkin, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" + }, + { + "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:26.738Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 68, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \nto\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\"\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:31.146Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 194, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The End of NAFTA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\nWe hence ask: \nwill the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? \nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:36.230Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 259, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8408/givewell-recommend-breastfeeding-promotion/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating [14 charity areas](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) including breastfeeding promotion.\nThe following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s [explanation of the topic](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/breastfeeding-promotion):\n“The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF recommend early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding to 6 months, and partial breastfeeding to age 24 months to improve infant and maternal health, but the majority of infants are not fed according to these guidelines. Mothers may not breastfeed as long or as intensively as they would like due to a lack of skills and support, so various maternal counselling and support interventions promote breastfeeding behaviour change.”\nEffectiveness for the following reasons: “We believe there is reasonably strong evidence that breastfeeding support programs can lead to increases in rates of exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months (compared to some or predominant breastfeeding) and breastfeeding duration, as recommended by WHO/UNICEF. Their impacts on exclusive breastfeeding may be larger in low-income countries. There is additional evidence that increasing breastfeeding reduces diarrhoea morbidity, which likely leads to reductions in childhood mortality from diarrhoea. It may also cause additional benefits that we have not yet vetted.”\nWill GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if GiveWell publishes a recommendation that grants be given to support breastfeeding promotion or on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a breastfeeding promotion charity is designated a top charity before December 31, 2026.\nThis may happen in the following ways:\n---GiveWell writes “yes” in the column “Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?” in the “breastfeeding promotion” row of the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or the spreadsheet which supersedes this one (see below). \n---Givewell publishes a blog in which which they announce they are recommending a grant in the area of breastfeeding promotion \n---Givewell adds an incubation grant to a breastfeeding promotion charity on this page [https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants) \n---A GiveWell blog post announcing that a charity in the area of breastfeeding promotion is a “Top Charity” \n---GiveWell publishes a section on breastfeeding promotion on its [Top Charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) page \nIf GiveWell publishes a recommendation that is no longer in force in 2027, this question resolves positively. Eg GiveWell no longer recommends grants to GiveDirectly, but it once did. \nIf GiveWell revokes a recommendation due to making errors in its calculations, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThe category “standout charities” used to exist. It no longer does, so can be ignored.\nIf the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) is no longer linked from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research), a superseding spreadsheet may be used. A superseding spreadsheet should have very similar column headings or the same title (“GiveWell programme reviews) or be linked under “prioritized list of programmes” from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research) or failing that, be the consensus choice of admins commenting on the question. \nFor clarity, if the above criteria aren’t met, but a reasonable spreadsheet exists which contains a grant for breastfeeding promotion exists, admins can post their suggestions of the spreadsheet in the comments of this question. Admins can change their votes, but at the time of resolution, all admins should have commented in favour of the same spreadsheet. If they have not, and the question does not resolve positively by any of the other methods, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:51.195Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 43, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-09-07T23:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-03-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of Germany's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2199-what-percentage-of-germany-s-population-will-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-of-1-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As Germany faces record high number of COVID-19 infections, vaccination numbers have been object of special attention ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-considers-partial-mandatory-vaccinations/a-59818417), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/13/angela-merkel-urges-germans-to-get-covid-vaccines-quickly-amid-high-infection-rate), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/covid-deniers-and-anti-vaxxers-threaten-german-doctors/a-59805953)). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 June 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=DEU. For example, Germany's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 14 November 2021 was 66.94%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 December 2021: For the purposes of this question, a person is considered fully vaccinated if they have received a single-dose vaccine or both doses of a two-dose vaccine ([OWID FAQ](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#frequently-asked-questions)). This definition will control throughout the duration of the question. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 70.00%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 85.00%", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:18.430Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 376, + "numforecasters": 115, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70.00%, Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive, More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%, Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive, More than 85.00%" + }, + { + "title": "Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6604/us-hyperinflation-in-any-year-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries.\nWill annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?\nWill the CPI-U increase by 100% in any year before 2050?\nWe will prefer to resolve using the CPI-U. If the BLS stops reporting the exact CPI-U metric but continues reporting a very similar measure of inflation, and it is similar enough as deemed by the mods, then that will be used. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:59.797Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "the US dollar will still be an internationally traded currency on 18 Mar 2032", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A137", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "Actually much more than 99%", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-03-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Vietnam officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Vietnam, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Vietnamese legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:19.034Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 15, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2220-will-the-closing-yield-for-the-us-10-year-treasury-reach-or-exceed-2-25-before-1-july-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:43.281Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 264, + "numforecasters": 110, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8614/non-state-actor-develops-a-nuke-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group outside a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) develops a nuclear weapon that is in deployable condition (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This will not include cases where a deployable weapon is sold, stolen, or inadvertently lost by a state (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)).\n[Dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:09.366Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:20.967Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 146, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2132-will-emirates-airline-revenues-for-fy-2021-22-reach-at-least-75-of-fy-2019-20-revenues-or-aed-68-979-million", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion ([Emirates](https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results/), [Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf)). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 ([Emirates Group](https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/)). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million ([Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf), see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:10.258Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasters": 48, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7860/pakistan-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now).\nWill Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Pakistani government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:48.479Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 59, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).\nWill Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?\nThis question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:20.669Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Another question asks [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/) This question focuses on the possibility of a deadly clash by 2024 between Russia and at least one NATO country, without the US being involved.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russia forces and identifiable forces of any NATO country other than the US.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n--- \nThe question resolves negatively if the above criteria are not met for a clash between Russia and a NATO country other than the US or if the criteria are met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (even if, before or afterwards, the criteria are met for a conflict between Russia and a NATO country other than the US)\nSee also\n---[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:25.759Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Terra ($LUNA) or Avalanche ($AVAX) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-terra-luna-or-avalanche-avax-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Terra ($LUNA) or Avalanche ($AVAX) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Terra", + "probability": "0.5981510053937997234514954825339234", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Avalanche", + "probability": "0.4018489946062002765485045174660766", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "119", + "liquidity": "1044.82", + "tradevolume": "2404.80", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Terra, Avalanche" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Peru in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Peru is Francisco Sagasti, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Peru has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 20 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0059416", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9940584, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Peru", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Francisco Sagasti", + "month_risk": "0.0005809", + "annual_risk": "0.0059416", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "20", + "leader_years": "0.3333333", + "country_code": "PER", + "country_abb": "PER" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will zkSync have a token by May 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zksync-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if zkSync or Matter Labs will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If zkSync or Matter Labs have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4868747708879216059334832017924771", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5131252291120783940665167982075229", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "31", + "liquidity": "366.60", + "tradevolume": "1416.30", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Italy have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-spain-on-march-1st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Italy has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1183617693117227423400914798090316", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8816382306882772576599085201909684", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "65", + "liquidity": "1143.11", + "tradevolume": "1821.19", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win PA 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A158", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the 2022 Colorado Republican Senate nominee?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7549/Who-will-be-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-Senate-nominee", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for United States Senator from Colorado.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Eli Bremer", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cory Gardner", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deborah Flora", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron Hanks", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Cooke", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Darryl Glenn", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Patrick Neville", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Erik Aadland", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Peter Yu", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:36.863Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 12220 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eli Bremer, Cory Gardner, Deborah Flora, Ron Hanks, John Cooke, Darryl Glenn, Patrick Neville, Erik Aadland, Peter Yu" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8128/smoke-plumes-reach-stratosphere/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One factor affecting the likelihood and severity of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) is the proportion of the smoke produced due to fires started by nuclear detonations that would reach the stratosphere. This is related to the question of how frequently fires in general produce smoke that reaches the stratosphere. [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777) write: \nFirestorms were also observed in World War II and lofted material to high altitudes (see Penner et al., 1986). Moreover, numerous conflagrations in forest fires with fuel densities similar to those assumed by Reisner et al. have produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere (e.g., Peterson et al., 2018). In 2017 a fire in British Columbia produced a stratospheric smoke pall that was observed by satellites for 8 months (Yu et al., 2019). Aircraft studies have shown that debris from recent fires is common in the lower stratosphere (Ditas et al., 2018).\nWill at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31-3-2023, at least two credible sources report that, between the opening of this question and 31-12-2022, at least one fire produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere. \nThese fires can have natural or anthropogenic causes.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:57.482Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 81, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:18.538Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 216, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Papua New Guinea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Papua New Guinea is James Marape, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Papua New Guinea has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 46 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0105224", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9894776, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Papua New Guinea", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "James Marape", + "month_risk": "0.0027465", + "annual_risk": "0.0105224", + "risk_change_percent": "0.21", + "regime_years": "46", + "leader_years": "1.833333", + "country_code": "PNG", + "country_abb": "PNG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:35.474Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 55, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:16.269Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 247, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:56.627Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 272, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Senate break legislative filibuster with less than 3/5 support in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7692/Will-the-Senate-break-legislative-filibuster-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nA cloture vote on a motion to proceed shall be relevant for the resolution of this market. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying invocation of cloture must occur through a recorded vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:01.062Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13414 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7612/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Stacey Abrams", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barrow", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Van Johnson", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Thurmond", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:30.901Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 34870 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Stacey Abrams, John Barrow, Van Johnson, Mike Thurmond" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related questions. Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the performance of the top supercomputer in 2022 and when the first exaFLOP supercomputer will appear.Context. According to the Top500 list, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half exascale. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to delays acquiring 7nm chips is now expected by some to debut in 2022.China is also developing three exascale supercomputers expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022. In April 2021, the United States imposed export controls on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. Resolution details. This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 Top500 list, which \"shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us.\" The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See here for more information about its methodology.***This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:31.911Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 423, + "numforecasters": 134, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "There is a heated debate regarding the effectiveness of vitamin D in improving COVID-19 outcomes. While numerous studies show a correlation, many claim it is due to confounding factors. A few controlled trials showed a strong effect, but the most notable one, conducted in [Córdoba, Spain](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960076020302764), had significant flaws that prevented it from being widely accepted.\nMore studies are underway, and within a year or so we will likely get a more certain answer, but a probabilistic analysis of currently available information can reach a useful conclusion faster, potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives.\nAdditionally, the conclusion below is included in the [Rootclaim $100,000 challenge](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/).\nNote: this is a simplified analysis; the full version was published in September 2020 [on the Rootclaim blog](https://blog.rootclaim.com/vitamin-d-can-likely-end-the-covid-19-pandemic/). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.", + "probability": 0.02185526954832443, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.", + "probability": 0.14643030597377368, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.", + "probability": 0.05463817387081107, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.", + "probability": 0.48567265662943165, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.", + "probability": 0.2914035939776591, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20." + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.5% following the Fed's December meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-012", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's December 14, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their December 14, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 93, + "yes_ask": 94, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 3646 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:45.441Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:27.406Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 106, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in East Timor in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of East Timor is Francisco Guterres, who has been in power for 3.8 years. East Timor has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0146174", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9853826, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "East Timor", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Francisco Guterres", + "month_risk": "0.0029065", + "annual_risk": "0.0146174", + "risk_change_percent": "0.03", + "regime_years": "19", + "leader_years": "3.833333", + "country_code": "TLS", + "country_abb": "ETM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7629/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-on-the-2024-Democratic-ticket", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:47.270Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 54166 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by April 19th?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-april-19th", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by April 19, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before April 19, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on April 19, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1552643715162977306601575869185564", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8447356284837022693398424130814436", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "24", + "liquidity": "3160.70", + "tradevolume": "2077.94", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:31.967Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 177, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.\nWill Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:39.602Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 82, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-12T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524/israeli-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.\nWill Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:48.174Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 65, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=52 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A172", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Metaculus' [Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/) explores threats to the human race. Several define a \"Global Catastrophe\" to mean a period of 5 years or less where the world population declines by 10% or more. Despite humanity's tumultuous history, including [World Wars 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) and [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [1918 Flu pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), and the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the only events likely to meet this criteria would be [the Black Death](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death) of 1347 and the year 560 [Plague of Justinian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian). For other estimates of major pandemics, see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics).\nMetaculus has some other estimates of extinction or near extinction (all estimates as of December 29, 2021):\n---2% [chance of extinction by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/). \n---25% (or less) of extinction [conditional on a decline to 100 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/time-of-recovery-following-global-catastrophe/) by year 2345. \n---25% of extinction within 20 years, [conditional on a decline to 400 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) by year 2100. \nThe Ragnarok Series attempts to forecast the relative severity of various existential risks, such as Climate, Nuclear War, Artificial Intelligence, Biological Engineering and Biological Weapons, and Nanotechnology. While those these recieve the majority of attention and concern in 2021, there may be risks resulting from unforseen future developments, or risks from dangers currently known but recieving insufficient attention. For this question, we'll ask about the risk of population decline by any cause as a point of comparison.\nRagnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after the world population declines by 10% (in any period of 5 years or less), the global population is less than 5% of the pre-decline population at any point within 25 years after the catastrophe. This question will resolve negatively if there is a global population decline of 10% in 5 years or less, but there is no population decline of 95% in a 25-year period. If there is no such population decline of 10% in any 5-year period between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n6-- \n[If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n7-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n12- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:27.159Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 27, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2120-06-15T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Arlo Parks win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-8", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Arlo Parks has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 13218 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:16.358Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 476, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-17T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm). According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2021](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022.\nWill a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a \"nuclear sharing\" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:47.102Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 104, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.5% following the Fed's June meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-014", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's June 15, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their June 15, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 90, + "yes_ask": 92, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 17566 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:44.488Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 78, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by May 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-may-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, May 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1192822399959166277418884351222459", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8807177600040833722581115648777541", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "63", + "liquidity": "1236.81", + "tradevolume": "3472.13", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Russia ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8855/russian-export-ban-on-wheat-/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Russia ban export of wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Russian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Russia, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Russian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:12.102Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2124-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-resulting-in-at-least-five-fatalities-before-1-september-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/planning-considerations-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:28.310Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasters": 84, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9612/joe-rogan-leaves-spotify/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Several musicians and podcast producers have recently [cut ties with Spotify](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2022/01/31/spotify-wont-pull-joe-rogan--but-comedian-open-to-change-and-even-issued-apology-to-neil-young/?sh=171804ba5c2e), insisting that Spotify ban or censor Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. Spotify's stock price [has fallen](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE) from January 1 to January 30 2022, although it [rebounded](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spotify-says-it-will-add-content-advisory-podcasts-that-discuss-covid-2022-01-31/) following a public apology from Rogan.\nWill Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if Joe Rogan formally stops publishing a podcast on Spotify any time between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023. This would include Rogan moving to a different platform, getting banned from Spotify, or voluntarily ending his podcast. Public statements by Rogan or Spotify will qualify as a resolution source.\nIn the case of ambiguity, if there are any episodes of a Joe Rogan podcast uploaded during January 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:45:00.911Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2207-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-brazil", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ([France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210309-lula-s-return-opens-door-to-bolsonaro-showdown-in-polarised-brazil), [Superior Electoral Court](https://english.tse.jus.br/the-brazilian-electoral-system/elections-1)). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "João Doria", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ciro Gomes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sérgio Moro", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another candidate", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:06.617Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 166, + "numforecasters": 80, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, João Doria, Ciro Gomes, Sérgio Moro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Another candidate" + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:26.550Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 98, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2079-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS ([WBUR](https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/06/28/the-prime-effect-inside-amazon-web-services), [Protocol](https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/aws-amazon-cloud-antitrust), [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-jassy-aws-amazon-spin-off-break-up-tim-bray-2021-2), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:46.138Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasters": 107, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”\nWill there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of the following occurs between December 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022:\n--- \nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.\n--- \nThere are at least three credible news reports of an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:06.561Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 272, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:41.390Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 343, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Slovenia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Slovenia is Jansa, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Slovenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0025514", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9974486, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Slovenia", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Jansa", + "month_risk": "0.000213", + "annual_risk": "0.0025514", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "29", + "leader_years": "1", + "country_code": "SVN", + "country_abb": "SLV" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8609/10-agricul-drop-leading-to-400m-fatalities/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\nArmed conflict could be in some countries’ best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"\nIf there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?\nThis question conditions on there being a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, using the same specification as in [a previous question](LINK) (except that here the year 2030 is used instead of 2024[1]). That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. As noted in that previous question, this could be caused either by nuclear conflict or by something else.\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nThe above condition is met\n2-- \nAt least three credible sources state or estimate that, within 5 years of the end of the year in which the first 10% shortfall by 2030 occurs, more than 400 million fatalities were caused by that shortfall. \nFor example, if the shortfall occurs in 2027, this question is about whether that causes >400m fatalities by the end of 2032.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate. \nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations cause >4b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the 10% shortfall. For example, if the 10% shortfall is followed by armed conflict, no attempt will be made to second-guess what credible sources say about whether the fatalities caused by that armed conflict should be considered to be ultimately caused by the 10% shortfall.\n[1] The reason for using 2030 rather than 2024 for this question is that the fatalities and discussion of them may occur on a several-year delay from the actual shortfall. It therefore seemed unwise to force this question to resolve by 2024, and hence best to make this part of the long-term rather than calibration tournament. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:43.307Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 15, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine [to nearly 100,000](https://nyti.ms/3GORIEb), according to the New York Times. In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.\nWill Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:27.469Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 2288, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. average less than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March 15?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-018", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 100,000 for a single day between Issuance and March 15, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occurred, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for March 15, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 22, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 70, + "yes_ask": 73, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 2326 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/deworming-recommended-by-givewell-by-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2816%2930242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:19.154Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions. Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?\nResolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.\nPreferred source: [ClinCalc Drug Stats database](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/About.aspx). If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the [Medical Expenditure Panel Survey](https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/) data from US HHS. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:01.839Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 57, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win WI 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A157", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected governor of Michigan in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2224-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-michigan-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Republican Party candidate", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:34.424Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 98, + "numforecasters": 71, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2189-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-hang-seng-index-on-30-june-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/27/can-hong-kongs-economy-survive-chinas-political-crackdown), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q3-gdp-growth-hits-1-year-low-raising-heat-policymakers-2021-10-17/)). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 20,000", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 23,000 but less than 26,000", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 29,000 but less than 32,000", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "32,000 or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:28.768Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20,000, Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive, More than 23,000 but less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive, More than 29,000 but less than 32,000, 32,000 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be Senate majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7544/Who-will-be-Senate-majority-leader-on-Feb-1,-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Senate majority leader at the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/01/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mitch McConnell", + "probability": 0.6499999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chuck Schumer", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Thune", + "probability": 0.06999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Cornyn", + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Barrasso", + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dick Durbin", + "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Patty Murray", + "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joni Ernst", + "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:27.412Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 46573 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, John Thune, John Cornyn, John Barrasso, Dick Durbin, Patty Murray, Joni Ernst" + }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:51.707Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 42, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:49.638Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 123, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8602/semaglutidecagrilintide-approval-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2821%2900845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.\nWill the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a paired form of semaglutide and cagrilintide (in any ratio) for the treatment of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company. The approved drug may have any ratio of semaglutide and cagrilintide, but may not include any other active ingredient.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:16.555Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.7029702970297029, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.297029702970297, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:45.158Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 91472 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Central African Republic in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Central African Republic is Touadera, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Central African Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0214555", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9785445, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Central African Republic", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Touadera", + "month_risk": "0.0007732", + "annual_risk": "0.0214555", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "5", + "leader_years": "5", + "country_code": "CAF", + "country_abb": "CEN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of South Africa's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 September 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2213-what-percentage-of-south-africa-s-population-will-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-of-1-september-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 2 September 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF. For example, South Africa's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 24.25%. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 35.00%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 80.00%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:51.257Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 48, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 35.00%, Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive, More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%, Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive, More than 80.00%" + }, + { + "title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8377/total-amount-of-nuclear-weapons-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nWill countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all countries on 2029-12-31 is greater than 20,000, according to the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 2034-12-31. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It does not include weapons possessed by non-state actors.\nResolution criteria will come from [FAS](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:51.642Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:38.047Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 124, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:57.839Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 571, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:13.033Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 80, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nWill a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? \nThis question will resolve positively if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to January 1, 2030. Any craft would qualify (such as [Venera 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_13)), and the craft need not have operational systems inside the Venetian atmosphere to resolve positively. Credible reports by space agencies such as [NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA) or [ESA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Space_Agency) will qualify as a resolution source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:20.832Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 625, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-07T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) asks how likely extinction is within 20 years of such a population decline. This question is intended as an imperfect proxy for the chance of another type of existential catastrophe: Unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse). \n(See also [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/).)\nWill human population size recover to 5b by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400m without extinction occurring within 20 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million sometime before 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years of that population decline, and the population recovers to >5 billion people sometime by the year 3000 (whether or not it remains >5 billion in the year 3000). The question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years, and the population remains below 5 billion from then till the year 3000 (whether this involves extinction or not, and regardless of what happens after 3000). The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100 or if extinction occurs within 20 years of such a population fall.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about such extreme events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nFor simplicity, this question will not attempt to distinguish truly unrecoverable collapses from \"merely\" those in which no recover occurs until after 3000 and will not attempt to consider any dimensions of collapse or recovery other than population size. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:10.961Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 18, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:40.826Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 303, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will We Are by John Batiste win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-1", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If We Are by John Batiste has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022.\n \nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9716 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [next Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Philippine_presidential_election) in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President [Rodrigo Duterte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte) is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution.\nOpinion polling on December 11, 2021 found [Bongbong Marcos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bongbong_Marcos) with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate [Leni Robredo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Robredo) (current Vice President) with 16.2%.\nAs of December 22, 2021, [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022) gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/2022-philippine-presidential-election) gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win.\nWill Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports.\nIf Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:19:58.344Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-05-08T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will France have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-france-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if France has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.666815290954996973138877071847685", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.333184709045003026861122928152315", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "109", + "liquidity": "994.25", + "tradevolume": "3746.47", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8619/bimagrumab-approval-for-weight-loss-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a [phase 2 trial](http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33457) of its interesting drug [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks, people treated with bimagrumab lost one-fifth of their fat mass and increased their lean mass by 4%, along with notable improvements in blood glucose control. \n[Versanis Bio](https://www.versanisbio.com/) [secured funding](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210831005293/en/Versanis-Bio-Announces-70-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-Bimagrumab-for-the-Treatment-of-Obesity) in 2021 to develop bimagrumab for the treatment of obesity.\nWill bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve bimagrumab for the treatment of weight loss by 2029-01-01. This may include a successful development from Versanis Bio, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:35.333Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 18, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:45.030Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 288, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself.", + "probability": 0.9672599583106107, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No. Someone else killed Hernandez.", + "probability": 0.032740041689389265, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself., No. Someone else killed Hernandez." + }, + { + "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\nWith [Kiev](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv) being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities. \nWill Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports. For the purposes of this question, \"entering Kiev\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Kiev still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:40.901Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 127, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Egypt in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Egypt is al-Sisi, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Egypt has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0120212", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9879788, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Egypt", + "regime_type": "Military-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "al-Sisi", + "month_risk": "0.0020787", + "annual_risk": "0.0120212", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.04", + "regime_years": "2", + "leader_years": "6.75", + "country_code": "EGY", + "country_abb": "EGY" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8005/coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2nd-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),\nIs Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.\nHe also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”\nWill Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2nd 2023 (Pacific Time),\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023\n\"Credible media\" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:47.287Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8524/2022-budget-includes-new-bank-surveillance/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Biden administration’s “[Build Back Better](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text)” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. \nIn the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals [worth more than $600](https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-irs-push-democrats-to-require-banks-to-report-annual-account-flows-11631727020), purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was [raised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-bank-reporting-democrats-11634658560) to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.\nBanking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities.\nWill Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?\nThis question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:19.603Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 51, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-20T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 100. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:35.693Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:20.980Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 278, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Indonesia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Indonesia is Joko Widodo, who has been in power for 6.4 years. Indonesia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0031832", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9968168, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Indonesia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Joko Widodo", + "month_risk": "0.0002644", + "annual_risk": "0.0031832", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "22", + "leader_years": "6.416667", + "country_code": "IDN", + "country_abb": "INS" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:49.216Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 124, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it is useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve two or more attacking countries, rather than just one.\nWill the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024:\n1-- \nThere are one or more offensive nuclear detonations of nuclear weapons owned by some country, and\n2-- \nWithin 30 days of the first of those detonations, there is at least one offensive detonation of another country's nuclear weapon, against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). For simplicity, no attempt will be made to account for whether the detonation against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s) is truly a \"retaliation\" or even whether it's by a country directly harmed by the original detonation(s); it just needs to occur within 30 days.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\nRelated Questions\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:05.046Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9079/democrats-in-house-of-representatives-in-2022/)\nIn 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:56.652Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 476, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Pakistan from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:04.874Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 27, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8034/hen-caging-prohibition-bill-becomes-uk-law/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051) is a bill introduced by Henry Smith, the Conservative Party MP for Crawley, to the House of Commons in a Ten Minute Rule speech [on 22nd September 2021](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-09-22/debates/3E79001A-C8B4-4DD7-8877-DC8A1E15DD2D/HenCaging%28Prohibition%29). If passed, the bill will prohibit the use of cages for egg-laying hens.\nFollowing its first reading, there was no opposition to printing as a bill and [to a second reading](https://thehumaneleague.org.uk/article/the-latest-news-on-our-fight-against-cages), which is scheduled for 22nd October 2021.\nWill the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?\nThis resolves positively if the Hen Caging (Prohibition) Bill introduced by Henry Smith receives Royal Assent and becomes law in the 2021-22 parliamentary session, recorded on the official [Parliamentary Bills website](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:49.956Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mandela Barnes", + "probability": 0.5963302752293578, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alex Lasry", + "probability": 0.17431192660550457, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steven Olikara", + "probability": 0.10091743119266054, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Godlewski", + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Nelson", + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gillian Battino", + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron Kind", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Larson", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:39.718Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 105207 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mandela Barnes, Alex Lasry, Steven Olikara, Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson, Gillian Battino, Ron Kind, Chris Larson" + }, + { + "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:50.812Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:10.602Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:50.056Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 240, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2152-what-will-be-facebook-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-31-may-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/04/1042921981/facebook-whistleblower-renewing-scrutiny-of-social-media-giant)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FB)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $600 billion", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $1.35 trillion", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:45.278Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 500, + "numforecasters": 126, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $600 billion, Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive, More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion, Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.35 trillion" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.6666666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:29.225Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 20400 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:04.497Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 121, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will $ETH flip $BTC in market cap in 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-flip-btc-in-market-cap-in-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the USD-denominated market capitalization of $ETH (Ethereum) will surpass that of $BTC (Bitcoin) at any time by December 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, according to CoinGecko. The resolution source for this market will be the “Market Cap” statistic and historical data section on each of the respective cryptocurrency’s CoinGecko listings currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at any point in 2022 the market cap of $ETH is greater than that of $BTC, often dubbed “The Flippening”. If, by the resolution date, the market cap of $ETH was never greater than that of $BTC at any given state of time, according to CoinGecko, then this market will resolve to “No”. If the links to the sources change, the new changed link sources will be used. In the event that CoinGecko becomes permanently disabled or unavailable, CoinMarketCap will instead be referenced as the resolution source.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2129837513228619322876235515132499", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7870162486771380677123764484867501", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "122", + "liquidity": "973.56", + "tradevolume": "1822.23", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 11 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2186-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-the-global-cryptocurrency-market-on-11-august-2022-according-to-coinmarketcap", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The cryptocurrency market has seen significant volatility ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/a-three-way-fight-to-shape-the-future-of-digital-finance-has-begun)). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 11 August 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 12 August 2022 ([CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than $1.0 trillion", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $2.0 trillion but less than $3.0 trillion", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between $3.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion, inclusive", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than $4.0 trillion but less than $5.0 trillion", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$5.0 trillion or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:34.423Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 313, + "numforecasters": 139, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.0 trillion but less than $3.0 trillion, Between $3.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion, inclusive, More than $4.0 trillion but less than $5.0 trillion, $5.0 trillion or more" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2248-before-1-january-2023-will-the-us-senate-independently-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After using a legislative workaround to bypass the 60-vote requirement for an increase in the debt ceiling, Democrats are struggling to find other ways to bypass the filibuster ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/republicans-broke-debt-ceiling-filibuster/index.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/590099-democrats-ponder-plan-b-strategy-to-circumvent-voting-rights-filibuster)). A change requiring action outside of the Senate (e.g., congressional legislation) would not count (e.g., [Senate Bill 610](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/610)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:41.217Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasters": 79, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. average less than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-017", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 100,000 for a single day between Issuance and March 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for March 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 40, + "yes_ask": 43, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 5084 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.\nWill someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](http://rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:13.870Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 60, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Comoros in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Comoros is Assoumani, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Comoros has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 15 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0248824", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9751176, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Comoros", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Assoumani", + "month_risk": "0.004188", + "annual_risk": "0.0248824", + "risk_change_percent": "0.29", + "regime_years": "15", + "leader_years": "1.833333", + "country_code": "COM", + "country_abb": "COM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Belize in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Belize is Juan Antonio Briceno, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Belize has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0049494", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9950506, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Belize", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Juan Antonio Briceno", + "month_risk": "0.0004331", + "annual_risk": "0.0049494", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "40", + "leader_years": "0.3333333", + "country_code": "BLZ", + "country_abb": "BLZ" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Laos in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Laos is Sisoulith, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Laos has a party regime type which has lasted for 45 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0054128", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9945872, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Laos", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Sisoulith", + "month_risk": "0.0021564", + "annual_risk": "0.0054128", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.04", + "regime_years": "45", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "LAO", + "country_abb": "LAO" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many of the 2021 GOP Trump impeachers will be re-elected?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7492/How-many-of-the-2021-GOP-Trump-impeachers-will-be-re-elected", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number or range of the ten Republican members of the House of Representatives who voted in favor of the 2021 impeachment of President Donald Trump who are elected to any district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "0", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "1", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "3", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "6", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "7", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "8", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "9 or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:46.031Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 119255 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8771/mickey-mouse-protection-act-ii-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1998, the U.S. congress passed the [Copyright Term Extension Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act), which extended copyright protection on works that were covered by copyright in 1923, changing the date on which they would enter the public domain to 2024.\nWill copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after December 31, 2023, all versions of Mickey Mouse (including his depiction in 1928 in Steamboat Willie) remain under the copyright of the Disney Corporation.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:48.583Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 36, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Uzbekistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Uzbekistan is Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Uzbekistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0095507", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9904493, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Uzbekistan", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Shavkat Mirziyoyev", + "month_risk": "0.0004444", + "annual_risk": "0.0095507", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "4.5", + "country_code": "UZB", + "country_abb": "UZB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2175-before-1-january-2023-will-negotiations-on-a-china-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-free-trade-agreement-be-completed", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 ([China Ministry of Commerce](http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html), [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/china-is-happy-about-the-abraham-accords-and-the-gcc-crisis-coming-to-an-end/), [ANI News](https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/chinese-saudi-arabian-fms-talk-over-phone-on-ties-cooperation20211017225922/), [GCC](https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx)). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., [New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade](https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:01.100Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasters": 34, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu's trial end in conviction?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8055/netanyahu-trial-results-in-conviction/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[A previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/) asked if [Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) would be convicted by 2022. Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Israel's opposition has been [on trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu) in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. In January 2022, it was reported that Netanyahu is [negotiating a](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-plea-deal-israel-intl/index.html) [plea deal](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/netanyahu-plea-bargain-israel-politics/). However, it was reported then that he [rejected the deal](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-694414) because it would ban him from politics. It is [generally believed](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-694414) that any success to Mandelblit will not offer any sort of plea deal as generous as the one Mandelblit is offering. Mandelblit is stepping down on February 1.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by 2030?\nThis will resolve positively on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge of Case 1000, Case 2000, or Case 4000. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial will not count for positive resolution. If the charges are dropped it will resolve negative. If there is no verdict by 2030-01-01 then this question will resolve as negative.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:47.646Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 10, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:01.790Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 143, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Afghanistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Afghanistan is Ashraf Ghani, who has been in power for 6.5 years. Afghanistan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 6 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0145318", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9854682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.849Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Afghanistan", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ashraf Ghani", + "month_risk": "0.0025558", + "annual_risk": "0.0145318", + "risk_change_percent": "0.08", + "regime_years": "6", + "leader_years": "6.5", + "country_code": "AFG", + "country_abb": "AFG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:07.047Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 220, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_%28histology%29) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:53.870Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:42.282Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 269, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Peaches by Justin Bieber win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-4", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Peaches by Justin Bieber has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9464 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.8415841584158416, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.15841584158415842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:42.822Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 106878 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Which Party's candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176964", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. In the event of any uncertainty over which party each candidate represents the Party as defined by the Federal Election Commission will be used for settlement. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic Party", + "probability": 0.44232383838797534, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican Party", + "probability": 0.5206520181025126, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Any Other", + "probability": 0.037024143509512004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 31997.65 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party, Any Other" + }, + { + "title": "How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2022, according to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2139-how-many-total-international-overnight-guests-will-visit-dubai-in-2022-according-to-the-dubai-department-of-tourism-and-commerce-marketing", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing ([Dubai Tourism](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/)). For example, 5.51 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai in 2020, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 ([Dubai Tourism - 2020 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-december-2020), [Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/annual-visitor-report-2019)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 10.0 million", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 22.5 million", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:03.603Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive, More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million, Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive, More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million, Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive, More than 22.5 million" + }, + { + "title": "How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7586/How-many-Senate-seats-will-the-GOP-control-after-the-midterms", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the United States Senate held by a Senator with a Republican party affiliation, at the End Date listed below. \nParty affiliation shall refer to Senator's ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered to be affiliated with a party if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with that party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "46 or fewer", + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "47", + "probability": 0.01801801801801802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "48", + "probability": 0.02702702702702703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "49", + "probability": 0.04504504504504505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50", + "probability": 0.0900900900900901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51", + "probability": 0.11711711711711713, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "52", + "probability": 0.15315315315315317, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53", + "probability": 0.1711711711711712, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54", + "probability": 0.1711711711711712, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55", + "probability": 0.09909909909909911, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56 or more", + "probability": 0.09909909909909911, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:44.042Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 302745 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8093/moving-us-voters-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US Declaration of Independence refers to the concept of the [consent of the governed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consent_of_the_governed), that governance and its associated authority are derived from the will of the people. A lack of consent may lead to revolution in extreme cases. In modern America, citizens typically interact with governance by voting and advocating for representatives and preferred policies, or by moving to another jurisdiction with governance that already more closely aligns with their current interests.\n[Foot voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting) is the \"physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial.” America has a rich history of migration and de facto foot voting. The westward movement of citizens via Manifest Destiny, the [Mormons’ mass exodus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormon_pioneers) to Utah, and the movement of African Americans to northern cities are historic examples of foot voting in America. Although such radical migrations are less visible today, Americans still move with regularity, and federalism allows American jurisdictions to compete for residents based on tax policy, healthcare, education, job opportunities and other aspects of governance.\nIn 2001, the [Free State Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project) (FSP), a non-profit organization, explicitly encouraged Americans to move to New Hampshire to support and influence the state’s governance. Participants were asked to sign a statement of intent to move to New Hampshire within five years of reaching 20,000 signatories. In 2016, the threshold was met. There were almost 2,000 early movers, and by 2021, over 5,000 of the original signees had purportedly moved to NH, and 17 state representatives [self-identified as Free Staters](https://freestateprojectwatch.org/fsp-members-in-nh-state-senate-house-2017-2018/) in the 2017-2018 session. FSP asserts that it no longer actively aims for a specific number of voters to move. Regardless, this is both objectively impressive and evidence that this kind of coordination is extremely difficult. FSP legitimately changed NH politics but only 25% of these motivated Americans found it viable to move.\nThe Free State Project is a seminal example of foot voting that was coordinated, which refers to the intentional effort to coordinate foot voting en masse to increase the value of individual votes.\nWill a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any organization, platform or group publicly self-proclaims that they have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state by Jan 1, 2030 with the intention of voting en masse. Claims must be corroborated by credible media reports, and in the case of ambiguity, Metaculus Admins will make a determination at their discretion. We’re specifically interested in modern and relatively acute instances of CFV, so the effort should have started on or after January 1, 2016, shortly before FSP officially started counting movers (If for example, the FSP reaches 10,000 moved to NH by 2030, this will resolve the question positively). This question resolves negatively if no projects have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:34.070Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?\n(XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:40.276Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 194, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least one single new pandemic (not SARS-CoV-2 or variants) causes >=0.02% of world population to die within a one year period by EOY 2031", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A142", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-03-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8859/ukraine-export-ban-on-wheat-by-42023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Ukrainian officials announce an export ban for at least one type of wheat anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Ukraine, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Ukrainian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:32.735Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 21, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. annual inflation on January 2022 exceed 7.0%?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-annual-inflation-on-january-2022-exceed-7p0", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, for all items) before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 7.0% from January 2021 to January 2022 and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on February 10 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote, that this market refers to the all items index increase for the 12 month period, before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote, that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 5.8%, 6.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7426029478535643429209167863980943", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2573970521464356570790832136019057", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "47", + "liquidity": "3707.74", + "tradevolume": "2499.24", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:49.449Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 635, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601/glp-1-based-drug-approval-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.\nWill a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n“Small molecule GLP-1-based drug” is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target. For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:11.425Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 18, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden gets a new nominee on SCOTUS in 2022 with 1+ GOP vote", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A269", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.\nQuestion: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?\nResolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:43.909Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 146, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-02-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-2024", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:45.922Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 151226 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8991/2022-warmer-than-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \n---[Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/) \n8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in [the top 10 warmest years on record](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013) according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) caused by humans.\n[NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year.\nWill 2022 be warmer than 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if global surface temperatures in 2022 are warmer than in 2021, according to [NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event of a statistical tie, another credible source such as [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp) may be used.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:50.427Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 170, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:26.398Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 82, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2243-before-1-january-2023-will-north-korea-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000-km", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/what-do-we-know-about-north-koreas-missiles/a-60360966), [38 North](https://www.38north.org/2022/01/another-north-korean-hypersonic-missile/)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:51.135Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:36.941Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 59, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Cape Verde in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Cape Verde is Correia e Silva, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Cape Verde has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0093951", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9906049, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Cape Verde", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Correia e Silva", + "month_risk": "0.0007333", + "annual_risk": "0.0093951", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "4.916667", + "country_code": "CPV", + "country_abb": "CAP" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.5544554455445545, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.44554455445544555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:40.219Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 101830 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.\nThis question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.\nWill the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?\nThis question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:24.866Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-14T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:41.784Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 390, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_%28Denmark%29) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:52.486Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 86, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Glass Animals win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-5", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Glass Animals has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 15834 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7636/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on December 10, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nGerman Chancellor Olaf Sholz's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Viktor Orbán", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mario Draghi", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pedro Sánchez", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Olaf Scholz", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sanna Marin", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:01.942Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 101655 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Viktor Orbán, Mario Draghi, Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Mark Rutte, Olaf Scholz, Sanna Marin" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:41.166Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 780, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:51.795Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 182, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:18.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 248, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many votes to confirm Sarah Bloom Raskin as Fed vice chair by April 15?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7720/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Sarah-Bloom-Raskin-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-April-15", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Sarah Bloom Raskin (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "48 or fewer", + "probability": 0.5132743362831858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "49", + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50", + "probability": 0.18584070796460175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51", + "probability": 0.061946902654867256, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "52", + "probability": 0.061946902654867256, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53", + "probability": 0.035398230088495575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54", + "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55", + "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56", + "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "57 or more", + "probability": 0.026548672566371678, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:20.849Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 6771 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8555/women-earn-more-than-men-in-2050-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Many studies have been attempted to measure the [gender pay gap in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States). The [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) found median women's wages to be about 81% of men's. Some of this difference can be attributed to confounding variables (such as differences in types of occupation), though the unexplained remaining gap could be attributed to discrimination.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about women in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n...while women’s salaries are not as high on average as men’s now, this has already [switched in urban areas](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/14/a-different-kind-of-gender-gap-seven-places-where-women-earn-more-than-men), which is generally a predictive indicator, and therefore women’s wages in the workplace will indeed be greater than men in terms of their salaries by 2050.\nWill median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the median usual weekly real earnings for wage and salary workers age 16 and over are higher for women than men in the fourth quarter of 2050, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](http://www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm). The data since 1979 is available in [this FRED chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) for men and women. If BLS stops publishing the relevant economic data, other credible data that provides a similar comparison between the median wages of adult men and women may be used.\nIf FRED no longer distinguishes data for men and women or definitions have changed, any data that compares wages on the basis of either sex at birth or current sex or gender identity as may be used for resolution. Where different estimates would result in a different resolution, Metaculus Admins may resolve according to the most high-quality data or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:56.406Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 26, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-12-31T19:31:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8460/imf-approves-debt-service-for-us-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.\nIf this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s.\nWill the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if the IMF executive board approves debt service relief on the US' debt any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:48.601Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-08T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:34.888Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 200, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/) \n[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming.\nThis question is more narrow in scope, and asks if commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for meat will be banned by 2040 (so farming for eggs and dairy are not included in this scope).\nWill commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for their meat by the end of 2040.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:17.592Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 68, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2126-what-percentage-of-venture-capital-dollars-will-go-to-us-startups-with-female-only-founders-in-2022-according-to-crunchbase", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Women-led firms have historically seen a small fraction of venture capital funding ([Crunchbase](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/sole-female-founders-raised-1b-less-in-2020-despite-record-venture-funding-surge-in-the-us/), [Harvard Business Review](https://hbr.org/2021/02/women-led-startups-received-just-2-3-of-vc-funding-in-2020)). The outcome will be determined using data published by Crunchbase for the US for 2022, expected in 2023. For 2020, the percentage was 2.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 2.5%", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "3.5% or more", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:24.746Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasters": 45, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive, More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%, 3.5% or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-15-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 15, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5520794063892621335222374749096706", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4479205936107378664777625250903294", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "222", + "liquidity": "25995.16", + "tradevolume": "72290.64", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:04.902Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 54, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:14.233Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 47, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Bernard Arnault or Jeff Bezos?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-bernard-arnault-or-jeff-bezos", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Bernard Arnault (& family) or Jeff Bezos. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bernard Arnault", + "probability": "0.6651204223111256490519081947954735", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Bezos", + "probability": "0.3348795776888743509480918052045265", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "115", + "liquidity": "3300.00", + "tradevolume": "4577.55", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Bernard Arnault, Jeff Bezos" + }, + { + "title": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\nJust wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if both men and women play as part of one tour with one tour organiser. It will still resolve positive if not all tournaments are mixed (ie if some currently all-female or all-male tournaments are part of the tour, that doesn't trigger negative resolution as long as the overarching tour organiser is one body)\nThis question resolves negatively if men and women play as part of two separate tours on the basis of gender.\nIn the event that it is unclear (eg the tennis tour fractures into multiple tours (WTA, ATP, mixed tour)) we will ask [Jeff Sackmann's](http://www.tennisabstract.com/) opinion and resolve on the basis of that. (In the event he says it's unclear / is uncontactable / unwilling to decided it resolves ambiguous)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:42.028Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs control Senate in 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A153", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:15.770Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 359, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:49.654Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 54, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Republic of the Congo is Nguesso, who has been in power for 23.4 years. Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 23 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0195577", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9804423, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Republic of the Congo", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nguesso", + "month_risk": "0.0044935", + "annual_risk": "0.0195577", + "risk_change_percent": "0.31", + "regime_years": "23", + "leader_years": "23.41667", + "country_code": "COG", + "country_abb": "CON" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Seychelles in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Seychelles is Wavel Ramkalawan, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Seychelles has a party regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0190657", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9809343, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Seychelles", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Wavel Ramkalawan", + "month_risk": "0.0005449", + "annual_risk": "0.0190657", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "0.4166667", + "country_code": "SYC", + "country_abb": "SEY" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8618/tirzepatide-approved-for-weight-loss-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide), called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs.\nWill tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve tirzepatide for the treatment of weight loss by 2025-01-01. This may be a successful development by Eli Lilly, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:30.193Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-18T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Yemen in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Yemen is Houthi, who has been in power for 6.1 years. Yemen has a warlordism regime type which has lasted for 6 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0067772", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9932228, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Yemen", + "regime_type": "Warlordism", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Houthi", + "month_risk": "0.000423", + "annual_risk": "0.0067772", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "6", + "leader_years": "6.083333", + "country_code": "YEM", + "country_abb": "YEM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7871/female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Fields Medal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fields_Medal) is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 [International Congress of Mathematicians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Congress_of_Mathematicians). In 2014, the late [Maryam Mirzakhani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Mirzakhani) became the first female Fields Medalist. [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Medal in 2022.\nWill there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?\nThis question resolve to yes if reliable media reports indicate that a woman won the Fields Medal at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:03.977Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)\nWill there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?\nPositive resolution if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before 2023-01-01 in relevant timezones.\nAccording to ENTSO-E, [Regional Group](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/system-operations/) for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).\nAppropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE [https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/](https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/). To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.\nI did not find any standard definition for massive blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.\nFor example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.\nIf there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:38.191Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 65, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-15T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Togo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Togo is Faure Gnassingbe, who has been in power for 15.8 years. Togo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 58 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.013193", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.986807, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Togo", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Faure Gnassingbe", + "month_risk": "0.0005614", + "annual_risk": "0.013193", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "58", + "leader_years": "15.83333", + "country_code": "TGO", + "country_abb": "TOG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8392/nuclear-attacks-and-global-cereal-yields/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nIf there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?\nThis question conditions on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations in a single conflict before 2050. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThe above condition is met, and\n2-- \nAverage global cereal yields over the 5 years following the end of the nuclear conflict that met that above condition are at least 5% lower than the average in the 5 years preceding the nuclear conflict.\nCrop yield data will be taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (or another credible organization).\nNote that crop yields are currently rising over time, so a 5% decline in the 5 years following the conflict compared to the 5 years before the conflict corresponds to a >5% decline compared to what would be expected under normal conditions - i.e., a >5% decline compared to what would occur if we extrapolated the current trend forwards.\nIf a relevant source gives a relevant estimate but in the form of a range, this question can resolve positively as long as the midpoint of the range is 5% or higher.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to discern whether the decline in cereal yields was caused by the nuclear detonations. \nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over territory owned by the US\".\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in yields but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:38.350Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:17.703Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 378, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:56.960Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 496, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the United Arab Emirates' ranking in the Global Food Security Index for 2022, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2142-what-will-be-the-united-arab-emirates-ranking-in-the-global-food-security-index-for-2022-according-to-the-economist-intelligence-unit", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The UAE's ranking fell from 21st in 2019 to 42nd in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic ([u.ae](https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/food-security/global-food-security-index), [Food Security Index - UAE](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country/Details#United%20Arab%20Emirates)). The outcome will be determined using data for 2022 as provided by the Global Food Security Index, expected to be released in 2023 ([Food Security Index](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 55th", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 55th and 41st", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 40th and 26th", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 25th", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:58.421Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasters": 37, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 55th, Between 55th and 41st, Between 40th and 26th, Higher than 25th" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Samoa in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Samoa is Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, who has been in power for 22.3 years. Samoa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0092242", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9907758, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Samoa", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi", + "month_risk": "0.0027592", + "annual_risk": "0.0092242", + "risk_change_percent": "0.23", + "regime_years": "59", + "leader_years": "22.25", + "country_code": "WSM", + "country_abb": "WSM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:09.902Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 692, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:23.259Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 159, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:54.549Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 115, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n“The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.\nWill soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nThe relevant process must eliminate sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to any of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:59.046Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 85, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:39:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-in-mariupol-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\n[Mariupol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol) is a strategically-important city [close to the frontlines](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51543463) in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have [launched several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol#The_war_in_Donbass) on the city. \nWill Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively upon Russian troops having entered Mariupol, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Mariupol\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Mariupol for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Mariupol still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:22.006Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will Ivan Duque lose power in Colombia?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Duque, president of Colombia, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Duque has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8677/smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\".\nWill small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:14.251Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 106, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the plaintiffs in **Carson v. Makin** on constitutional grounds?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CARVMAK-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds in Carson v. Makin, then the market resolves to Yes. A ruling in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds includes a holding that Maine’s prohibition on the use of state-aid to “sectarian” schools is unconstitutional. A ruling is still considered “in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds” if the broader prohibition is struck down on constitutional grounds even if the particular schools that the plaintiffs wish to send their children to (Bangor Christian and Temple Academy) still cannot receive public funding. \n\nThe above is a summary of the terms and conditions. Please see CARVMAK in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and familiarize themselves with the terms and conditions prior to trading on the market.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Judgments of the Court and Opinions of the Court from the Supreme Court of the United States. Such opinions may include slip opinions, bench opinions and per curiam opinions, and includes opinions and judgments that are posted to the Supreme Court’s website. Dissents and concurrences are not included in the Underlying. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 86, + "yes_ask": 89, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 5456 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:39.466Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 136, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2251-at-close-of-business-on-30-december-2022-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [US News & World Report](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-29/apple-set-to-hand-crown-of-worlds-most-valuable-company-to-microsoft)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET ([Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:36.177Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasters": 63, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:38.024Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-3", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 76358 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 1.7% on February 07, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TNOTE-004", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is above 1.7% on February 07, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see TNOTE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThese par yields are derived from bid-side market price quotations at or near 3:30 PM each trading day.\n\nThe market will expire and close and expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the data release for February 07, 2022, or one week following February 07, 2022.\n\n. The resolution source is: The Underlying for this contract is daily Treasury par yield curve rates for 10-year U.S. treasury notes for February 07, 2022 according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 91, + "yes_ask": 94, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 2700 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will average **gas prices** be higher this week than last week?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GAS-035", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.321 on February 07, 2022, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see GAS in the Rulebook for more information.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data (which is generally scheduled for Monday evenings), or February 21, 2022. The market will always close at 4:59 PM ET on the day of the expected release of the data.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for February 07, 2022, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 99, + "yes_ask": 100, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 2254 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Harris is 2024 POTUS", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A247", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:55.979Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 48, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by August 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-august-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, August 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4849617052730954765863976713214142", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5150382947269045234136023286785858", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "54", + "liquidity": "1079.52", + "tradevolume": "3159.67", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In France, where is inflation heading (year-on-year)?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "This question starts on October 1, 2021, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the year-on-year inflation rate reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, according to the data (even provisional ones) published by the French national institute for statistics and economic studies (INSEE) in this chart: [https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3530258?sommaire=3530679&q=ipc](https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3530258?sommaire=3530679&q=ipc) ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "≥ 2.5%", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "≤ 1.5%", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.971Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ 2.5%, ≤ 1.5%" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Swaziland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Swaziland is Mswati, who has been in power for 34.9 years. Swaziland has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 53 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0142565", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9857435, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Swaziland", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mswati", + "month_risk": "0.0009074", + "annual_risk": "0.0142565", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "53", + "leader_years": "34.91667", + "country_code": "SWZ", + "country_abb": "SWA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/cavendish-bananas-collapse-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:02.130Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 143, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8945/google-blocks-3rd-party-cookies-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target advertisements, which privacy advocates like the [Electronic Frontier Foundation](https://www.eff.org/pages/privacy-badger) object to.\nIn June 2021, [Google planned](https://blog.google/products/chrome/updated-timeline-privacy-sandbox-milestones/) to replace third party cookies with Google Analytics’ own system: [Federated Learning of Cohorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_Learning_of_Cohorts) (FLoC). This will allow advertisers to target users based on behaviour, but will prevent them from tracking users across sites.\nWill Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google releases an updated version of chrome which blocks third-party cookies by default before January 1, 2024. This version must be the on the main branch, not a beta version or [chromium](https://www.chromium.org/) version. Resolution may come from credible media reports.\nFor this question, “Third party cookie” refers to a cookie set by javascript code that does not belong to the site the user is visiting. This question will resolve if third-party cookies are blocked by default on Chrome; it is irrelevant if Google implements FLoC or any other advertising mechanism by 2024.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:03.741Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 21, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Sierra Leone in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Sierra Leone is Julius Maada Bio, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Sierra Leone has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 23 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0297592", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9702408, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Sierra Leone", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Julius Maada Bio", + "month_risk": "0.003748", + "annual_risk": "0.0297592", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.03", + "regime_years": "23", + "leader_years": "2.916667", + "country_code": "SLE", + "country_abb": "SIE" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Costa Rica in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Costa Rica is Carlos Alvarado Quesada, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Costa Rica has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 71 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0045382", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9954618, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Costa Rica", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Carlos Alvarado Quesada", + "month_risk": "0.0003736", + "annual_risk": "0.0045382", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "71", + "leader_years": "2.833333", + "country_code": "CRI", + "country_abb": "COS" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Omicron is declared VOHC by 2022 Mar 1", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A254", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-11-27T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Nevada Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Adam Laxalt", + "probability": 0.6851851851851851, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sam Brown", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Amodei", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heidi Gansert", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Hutchison", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Sandoval", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Kieckhefer", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jill Tolles", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sharelle Mendenhall", + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:45.537Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 54600 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Adam Laxalt, Sam Brown, Mark Amodei, Heidi Gansert, Mark Hutchison, Brian Sandoval, Ben Kieckhefer, Jill Tolles, Sharelle Mendenhall" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0.5782454794251671, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.4099855243465324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrat", + "probability": 0.01176899622830046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 173632.43 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat" + }, + { + "title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8662/chinas-nuclear-arsenal-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"](https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.\nWill China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?\nThis resolves positively if China is reported to have achieved 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 according to the FAS ([https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status…](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)).\nThis resolves negatively if no such reports happen by 2030. \nThis resolves ambiguously if the political entity of 'China' dissolves or otherwise changes significantly.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:22.385Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 18, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://%28https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/%29) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:11.623Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.6699029126213591, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.3300970873786408, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:05.265Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 10021 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Gustavo Petro", + "probability": 0.4491525423728813, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sergio Fajardo", + "probability": 0.1694915254237288, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rodolfo Hernández", + "probability": 0.10169491525423727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alejandro Char", + "probability": 0.07627118644067796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Federico Gutiérrez", + "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Manuel Galán", + "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marta Lucía Ramírez", + "probability": 0.033898305084745756, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Humberto de la Calle", + "probability": 0.033898305084745756, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tomás Uribe", + "probability": 0.025423728813559317, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Óscar Iván Zuluaga", + "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:19.446Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 25770 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Gustavo Petro, Sergio Fajardo, Rodolfo Hernández, Alejandro Char, Federico Gutiérrez, Juan Manuel Galán, Marta Lucía Ramírez, Humberto de la Calle, Tomás Uribe, Óscar Iván Zuluaga" + }, + { + "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8313/sbf-as-the-richest-person-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Sam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried).\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, by January 1st, 2050, a comment on this Metaculus question links to an archive of the Bloomberg Billionaire Index OR the Forbes real-time list of billionaires indicating that Sam Bankman-Fried was the richest person in the world. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nAcceptable archive sites include [archive.is](http://archive.is) and [archive.org](http://archive.org). However, any archival site that is determined to be trustworthy by Metaculus moderators would also work.\nThis question will resolve at the minimum date of any such archive, if it exists.\n(These resolution criteria are similar to those of [this question about Elon Musk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/) created by [Matthew_Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) in February 2020.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:33.870Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2042-05-05T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will **New York City public schools** be fully open on February 7, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NYSCHL-002", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If New York City public schools are fully open on February 07, 2022, then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see NYSCHL in the Rulebook for the legally binding rules and regulations, including a complete definition of \"fully open\". All market participants should fully read and understand these rules before trading. \"Reopening plans\" refers to any plan about when students can and cannot attend school in person.. The resolution source is: The opening plans of the New York City public school district (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.030000000000000027, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 97, + "yes_ask": 99, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 24088 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which threshold will Bitcoin hit first?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "This question starts on May 20, 2021, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of a bitcoin reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, according to Blockchain.com in this chart: [https://exchange.blockchain.com/trade/BTC-USD](https://exchange.blockchain.com/trade/BTC-USD) ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "USD 60,000", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "USD 20,000", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:43.149Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "USD 60,000, USD 20,000" + }, + { + "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:25.795Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 130, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Dominican Republic in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Dominican Republic is Luis Abinader, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Dominican Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 43 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0053902", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9946098, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Dominican Republic", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Luis Abinader", + "month_risk": "0.0004243", + "annual_risk": "0.0053902", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", + "regime_years": "43", + "leader_years": "0.5833333", + "country_code": "DOM", + "country_abb": "DOM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8636/war-between-russia-and-nato-countries/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Other questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/). This question focuses on the possibility of a war between Russia and any NATO country other than the US by 2035, without there also being a US-Russia war.\nWill there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if the following two criteria are met:\n1-- \nBy 2035, there is a conflict between Russia and one or more NATO countries other than the US in which those countries collectively suffer [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. \n2-- \nIt is not the case that there is a US-Russia war by 2035 (regardless of whether that's connected to, before, or after the war mentioned in the first criterion). In other words, the question \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" must resolve negatively for this question to resolve positively.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the US is in some way involved in the war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, as long as the US's involvement is insufficient to resolve \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" positively. For example, this question can resolve positively if there's a year before 2035 in which Russia and Germany each suffer 600 battle-related deaths as part of a conflict with each other and, as part of the same conflict, the US suffers \"only\" 100 battle-related deaths and inflicts \"only\" the same amount. \nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2035, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n--- \n[If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:48.406Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 61, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7519/Which-of-these-10-Asia-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, located upon launch of this market at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold the position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy of such person from, or appointment of another person to, that position. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. For purposes of this market, the family names of President Moon Jae-in, President Joko Widodo, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Moon,\" \"Widodo,\" and \"Kishida,\" respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Moon Jae-in", + "probability": 0.8035714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", + "probability": 0.05357142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Morrison", + "probability": 0.05357142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ebrahim Raisi", + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kishida Fumio", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Naftali Bennett", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Narendra Modi", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joko Widodo", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rodrigo Duterte", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Imran Khan", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:07.898Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 45797 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Moon Jae-in, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Scott Morrison, Ebrahim Raisi, Kishida Fumio, Naftali Bennett, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Rodrigo Duterte, Imran Khan" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nWill Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea, in the period between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:25:11.733Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 42, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least one state other than NC, OH, FL, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV, or NH flips parties in 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A163", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 260 million Americans be **vaccinated for COVID-19** by March 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VAXX-042", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If over 260 million Americans are reported as vaccinated for COVID-19 by March 1, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see VAXX in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for March 1, 2022 or March 8, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 2, + "yes_ask": 3, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 38384 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden does get a new nominee on SCOTUS in 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A268", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:53.073Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 243, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in San Marino in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of San Marino is Cardelli and Dolcini, who has been in power for 0.4 years. San Marino has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 420 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.000787", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.999213, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "San Marino", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Cardelli and Dolcini", + "month_risk": "0.0000654", + "annual_risk": "0.000787", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "420", + "leader_years": "0.4166667", + "country_code": "SMR", + "country_abb": "SNM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2249-before-1-january-2023-will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-begin-delivering-natural-gas-to-germany", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Amid high tensions between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine and other matters, gas giant Gazprom is awaiting regulatory approval to begin delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline ([Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nord-stream-filled-gas/31632027.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-consequence-nord-stream-two-russia-attack-ukraine/), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/121621-no-decision-on-certifying-nord-stream-2-operator-in-first-half-of-2022-regulator)). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:39.612Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasters": 106, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be over 3.3 million **new COVID-19 cases** for the week ending February 4, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/WKCASE-024", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the total number of reported new COVID-19 cases in the US in the week ending February 4, 2022 is greater than 3.3 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see WKCASE in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis market will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 04, 2022 or February 14, 2022.. The resolution source is: The total sum of reported new COVID-19 cases published by the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) \"Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC\" for the week ending February 04, 2022. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 1, + "yes_ask": 2, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 3548 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.9207920792079208, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:17.255Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 50648 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Which left-wing candidate will be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "The answers \"Several of them\" and \"None of them\" only refer to the three candidates listed, not to the whole set of potential left-wing candidates. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Anne Hidalgo (only)", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yannick Jadot (only)", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arnaud Montebourg (only)", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon (only)", + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Fabien Roussel (only)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Several of them", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "None of them", + "probability": 0.9215686274509803, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Anne Hidalgo (only), Yannick Jadot (only), Arnaud Montebourg (only), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (only), Fabien Roussel (only), Several of them, None of them" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win control of the US Senate in the 2022 midterm elections?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2162-which-party-will-win-control-of-the-us-senate-in-the-2022-midterm-elections", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "As of 15 October 2021, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the Senate in the 2020 elections ([270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022)). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic Party", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican Party", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:22.576Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 514, + "numforecasters": 275, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party" + }, + { + "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:17.151Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1193, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Suriname in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Suriname is Santokhi, who has been in power for 0.7 years. Suriname has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0069158", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9930842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Suriname", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Santokhi", + "month_risk": "0.0005861", + "annual_risk": "0.0069158", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "29", + "leader_years": "0.6666667", + "country_code": "SUR", + "country_abb": "SUR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the CPTPP Commission commence the accession process for **China to join the CPTPP** by January 4, 2023?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPTPP-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the CPTPP Commission issues a statement that indicates that the accession process for the People's Republic of China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership has been formally commenced and that a formal accession working group has been or will be established, then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see CPTPP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, as well as examples of past statements.. The resolution source is: English language versions of statements by the CPTPP Commission. The best repository of CPTPP Commission statements is available from the Japanese government. To find English-language versions on the website, go to the link above, click on a given year (e.g. \"2021 年\") then click on \"英文\", which means \"English\" in Japanese. These instructions are provided for convenience only. Please see CPTPP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 4, + "yes_ask": 6, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 4206 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8582/smoking-and-sex-less-prevalent-in-us-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nAll socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.\nWill smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if any credible surveys of US adults in the year 2050 report that the share of adults who have smoked in the past week and the share of adults who have had sex in the past week were both lower than in the year 2021. Comparisons between 2050 and 2021 must be of similar methodology (see fine print) to count towards resolution. If no comparable surveys can be found for both smoking and sex by the resolution date of December 31, 2054, this resolves ambiguously. This resolves positively if any credible surveys would result in positive resolution, conflicting surveys will be considered irrelevant.\nRegarding similar methodology, if a survey in 2021 includes e-cigarettes and a survey from 2050 does not the surveys would not be considered to have similar methodology. However, different methodologies can still be acceptable if it can be logically deduced that the surveys provide evidence toward resolution. For example, if a survey in 2021 asked whether respondents had sex in the past year and 25% answered no, and a survey in 2050 asked if respondents had sex in the past five years and 40% answered no, it can be deduced that a larger share of adults in 2050 had not had sex in the past year than in 2021 because the five year period would include the past year. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:14.684Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:13:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:06.283Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 119, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8134/deadly-clash-between-india-and-china-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Another [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/) asks about a potential conflict before 2024.\nThis question asks what might happen by 2023.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2022-12-31 UTC.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:28.971Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 86, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Democrat other than Tim Ryan", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A88", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9492/israeli-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003. \nWill Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:30.177Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2129-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/business-formation-surged-last-year-confounding-expectations/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/u-s-business-starts-enjoyed-their-best-year-ever-amid-covid-19), [Economic Innovation Group](https://eig.org/news/the-startup-surge-business-formation-trends-in-2020)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=BFS&startYear=2004&endYear=2021&categories=TOTAL&dataType=BA_BA&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=), parameters are set with the link, [Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology](https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/methodology.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 4.2 million", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6.0 million", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:13.674Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasters": 27, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4.2 million, Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive, More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million, Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive, More than 6.0 million" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Thailand in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Thailand is Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Thailand has a military regime type which has lasted for 7 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0085364", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9914636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Thailand", + "regime_type": "Military", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Prayuth Chan-ocha", + "month_risk": "0.0027831", + "annual_risk": "0.0085364", + "risk_change_percent": "0.05", + "regime_years": "7", + "leader_years": "6.833333", + "country_code": "THA", + "country_abb": "THI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. \n[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [\"de-extinction\"](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&redirect=true&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).\nStudies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Sharebar&utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).\nOn a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?\nResolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:46.259Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 642, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-05-07T13:15:21Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-06-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8356/safer-to-leak-10000-t-oil-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since 1988, the former supertanker Esso Japan has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel Safer. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Yemen's oil fields and trans-ship it for export. In this configuration it could store up to about 400,000 tonnes (3 MMbbl) of oil.\nIn 2015, the opposition Houthi movement captured Al Hudaydah and its port, and the Safer fell into disuse and disrepair. In subsequent years, international concern has gradually increased about the ship and its derelict cargo of nearly 150,000 tonnes (1.14 MMbbl). A major spill could close port access for badly needed humanitarian aid, wipe out the fishing industry of a country already experiencing widespread malnutrition, and potentially disrupt global shipping lanes through the confined approaches to the Suez Canal.\nSafely removing the oil from the Safer in its current condition ought to be simple mechanically. The problem is obtaining the necessary co-operation from the Houthis. Their troops garrison the vessel. There are fears of naval mines in the surrounding waters, and of booby-traps and scuttling charges aboard the Safer itself.\nThe Houthi leadership has linked the resolution of the Safer problem to broader diplomatic disputes. In 2020, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi mockingly tweeted, \"The life of the shrimps is more precious than the life of Yemeni citizens to the U.S. and its allies. ... Why is Safer more dangerous than the siege and the assault ... on the [Yemeni] people?\" In a later tweet, he added: \"If, God forbid, an environmental catastrophe occurred with the explosion of the Safer, the world will stop not for a week, as it did in Suez [during the Ever Given incident], but will stop for a long time.\" Some United Nations officials working on the problem are said to have privately concluded that the Houthis are playing chicken.\nAs Journalist Ed Caesar [has written](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/the-ship-that-became-a-bomb) in The New Yorker:\nThe Safer is not sinking. It is not on fire. It has not exploded. It is not leaking oil. Yet the crew of the ship, and every informed observer, expects disaster to occur soon. But how soon? A year? Six months? Two weeks? Tomorrow? In May [2021], Ahmed Kulaib, the former executive at [the Safer's operating company], told me that “it could be after five minutes.” Then five minutes passed, and then another... The crisis unfolds at the speed of rust.\nWill the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of credible media report that an oil spill associated with the FSO Safer has released at least 10,000 metric tonnes of oil. This question will resolve negatively if this has not occurred by 2025-01-01.\nIn the case that estimates of the size of the oil spill vary, such that ranges span above and below 10,000 tonnes, the question may resolve ambiguous if sufficient clarifying evidence is unavailable.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:23.725Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-16T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?\nThis question will resolve positively if Holden wins the above bet with Zvi, according to Holden's and Zvi's public agreement to resolve the bet. Resolution is positive if Holden wins, negative if Zvi wins, and ambiguous if they declare the bet is a \"push\".\nA related Metaculus question on whether this bet will resolve ambigously can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:11.330Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 197, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T18:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Romania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Romania is Iohannis, who has been in power for 6.3 years. Romania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0035908", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9964092, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Romania", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Iohannis", + "month_risk": "0.0002948", + "annual_risk": "0.0035908", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "29", + "leader_years": "6.25", + "country_code": "ROU", + "country_abb": "ROM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8399/10-or-more-nuclear-armed-states-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). \nA few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. \nOther states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons.\nWill there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?\nThis question will resolve positively if at any time during the period between this question opening and 2035-01-01, at least 3 credible sources report that at least 10 countries have a deployable nuclear weapon.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it needs not be the case that there are 10 or more nuclear-armed states at the start of 2035 specifically; if one or more nuclear-armed states give up nuclear weapons by 2035, but at some point before 2035 there were at least 10 states with deployable nuclear weapons, this question would resolve positively. \nIf a current nuclear-armed state fractures into multiple states and more than one of the successor states then possess deployable weapons, each of those states will count as separate nuclear-armed states for the purposes of this question. (The reason for this is that the successor states will likely have substantially different geopolitical relationships and interests.) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:14.431Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Love For Sale by Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-2", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Love For Sale by Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 19580 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On the 18-Apr-2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n---[Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691) \n---[Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114) \n---[Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html) \nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\nWill there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n---Arsenal FC \n---Chelsea FC \n---Liverpool FC \n---Manchester City FC \n---Manchester United FC \n---Tottenham Hotspur FC \n---Inter Milan \n---Juventus FC \n---AC Milan \n---Atlético Madrid \n---FC Barcelona \n---Real Madrid CF \n---Bayern Munich \n---Borussia Dortmund \n---Bayer Leverkusen \n---Schalke 04 \n---PSG \n---Lyon \n---Ajax \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:25.831Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 44, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:36.124Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 93, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T17:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9585/l-kruger-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Leondra Reid Kruger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leondra_Kruger), born July 28, 1976, is an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California and a former Obama administration official.\nIt has been [speculated](https://twitter.com/JeffreyToobin/status/1483197268828295170) that President Joe Biden could nominate Kruger to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur.\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Leondra Kruger is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:09.192Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:06.634Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 52, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:56.457Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 221, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8583/top-movies-in-2050-primarily-franchises/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The prevalence of remakes (such as Aladdin (2019) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by some as [evidence of a lack of ideas or an aversion to risk in Hollywood](https://news.yahoo.com/theres-reason-why-many-remakes-141000996.html). Others see it as a sign of a stagnant culture. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about culture in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe panopticon of social media and state control will lead to cultural stagnation. We already see early hints of this. Consider the remakes of older movies: 2050 will be a stew of remakes of remakes, and familiar and boring intellectual property (like Star Wars) will be king. Creativity vivacity will suffer, especially in the arts and humanities. The coming half-century will be a great one for innovations in finance, engineering, space travel, and artificial intelligence. It will be a terrible one for the arts and basic scientific advancements (like a new physics), for such advancements [require iconoclastic and creative lone individuals](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone). This prediction is already augured by judging the 2000-2020 creative period overall in areas like art, music, literature, film, and scientific discoveries, and finding it severely lacking compared to, say, 1950-1970.\nWill at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?\nThis resolves positively if at least 10 of the top 20 highest grossing movies in the United States in 2050 are part of a franchise which has previously appeared in a movie released in theaters in the United States. Sequels to previously released movies, spin-off movies containing characters from a previously released movie, and in-universe movies (for example a Star Wars movie containing entirely new characters and settings but canonically in the Star Wars universe) would all count as part of an existing franchise previously appearing in a movie. If theaters are no longer the primary form of new movie releases in 2050 the admins may use their discretion to determine an equivalent metric for the highest grossing movies in the US in 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:19.867Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 26, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-07-02T04:37:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By the end of 2021, which scenario about the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic will the U.S. government officially consider more likely?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "On May 26, president Biden in a statement said the majority of the intelligence community had “coalesced” around two scenarios - animal link or lab leak - but “do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other.” He revealed that two agencies lean toward the animal link and “one leans more toward” the lab-leak theory, “each with low or moderate confidence.” He then ordered the intelligence community to come back to him in 90 days with a more definitive report. Resolution Criteria - Officially - The statement would have to be made or confirmed by a relevant member of the executive branch: the president, the director of national intelligence, the secretary of state, or the press secretary. - More likely - U.S. intelligence agencies report three levels of analytic confidence for their assessments: low, moderate, and high ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org)). To settle the question, the official statement would have to report an aggregate \"high\" or \"moderate to high\" confidence, across relevant intelligence agencies, that one scenario is the most likely. - Deadline - The question will be settled at the latest on Dec 31, 2021, but it would resolve as soon as the government announces that it has concluded that one scenario is more likely than the others. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Animal-to-human transmission", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Other origin", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Can't decide", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Animal-to-human transmission, Leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Other origin, Can't decide" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Josh Shapiro", + "probability": 0.9702970297029703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sara Innamorato", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Torsella", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Kenney", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:53.566Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 11689 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Shapiro, Sara Innamorato, Joe Torsella, Jim Kenney" + }, + { + "title": "Will **New York** (excluding NYC) average less than 3,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-021", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for New York (excluding NYC) is below 3,000 for a single day between Issuance and March 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for March 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for New York (excluding NYC) according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 57, + "yes_ask": 60, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 2408 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. \nQuestions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea. \nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:24.737Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 225, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:35:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:35:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **high in New York City** be over 44° on Friday?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NHIGH-261", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for February 04, 2022, is strictly greater than 44°, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see NHIGH in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nPlease be advised to check to see what temperatures have occurred previously in the day. While the market resolves based on the finalized report from the NWS, traders should use other data sources--including other preliminary NWS reporting--to inform their trades.\n\nThe Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM ET on February 04, 2022 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for February 04, 2022, or one week after February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY for February 04, 2022, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 95, + "yes_ask": 97, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 2342 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.\nIn 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:35.200Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ripple-xrp-or-cardano-ada-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ripple", + "probability": "0.2104409632794554119925529532659066", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cardano", + "probability": "0.7895590367205445880074470467340934", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "154", + "liquidity": "1075.22", + "tradevolume": "2584.81", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ripple, Cardano" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:21.073Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 584, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?\nThis question will resolve positively if Zvi and Holden's [Bet about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) is not won by either Zvi or Holden, by mutual agreement between the two parties. That is, if the bet is called off, if the “push” clause on post-Omicron strain(s) “muddying the waters” is triggered, or there is not agreement between Zvi and Holden about the winner of the bet, then this question will resolve positively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by September 1, 2023, this question will resolve positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:16.549Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-09T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Additional candidates may be added to this market on request. Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Donald Trump", + "probability": 0.22776849443663458, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Biden", + "probability": 0.16531584273626704, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris", + "probability": 0.08541318541373796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.11918118894940181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Haley", + "probability": 0.03796141573943909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pence", + "probability": 0.03796141573943909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.03534338706775364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.02440376726106799, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", + "probability": 0.02135329635343449, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.013666109666198075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kristi Noem", + "probability": 0.012058332058410066, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dwayne Johnson", + "probability": 0.01138842472183173, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ted Cruz", + "probability": 0.01078903394699848, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Josh Hawley", + "probability": 0.005124791124824278, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.00931780204513505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.004658901022567525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nina Turner", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.005124791124824278, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "probability": 0.015768588076382394, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ivanka Trump", + "probability": 0.00931780204513505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Candace Owens", + "probability": 0.002277684944366346, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tulsi Gabbard", + "probability": 0.006405988906030348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Cheney", + "probability": 0.0020917514795201135, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Bloomberg", + "probability": 0.004658901022567525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Garcetti", + "probability": 0.0040998328998594225, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Gaetz", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michelle Obama", + "probability": 0.017082637082747595, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.0013666109666198075, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Meghan Markle", + "probability": 0.001138842472183173, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Carson", + "probability": 0.0044563401085428505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Crenshaw", + "probability": 0.0040998328998594225, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cory Booker", + "probability": 0.0024403767261067994, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paul Ryan", + "probability": 0.002277684944366346, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marco Rubio", + "probability": 0.003942147019095598, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Oprah Winfrey", + "probability": 0.0012974154746390578, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Kerry", + "probability": 0.0040998328998594225, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.0031059340150450167, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sherrod Brown", + "probability": 0.0020499164499297113, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Condoleezza Rice", + "probability": 0.0012201883630533997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernie Sanders", + "probability": 0.0028471061804579323, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gavin Newsom", + "probability": 0.004658901022567525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Julian Castro", + "probability": 0.001138842472183173, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.005124791124824278, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Christie", + "probability": 0.0024998981096703795, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rand Paul", + "probability": 0.005124791124824278, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Kasich", + "probability": 0.0012653805246479698, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Holder", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Swalwell", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Caitlyn Jenner", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Christopher Sununu", + "probability": 0.0010789033946998479, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Al Gore", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Beto O'Rourke", + "probability": 0.0031059340150450167, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rob Portman", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rashida Tlaib", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeb Bush", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deval Patrick", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Greg Abbott", + "probability": 0.002562395562412139, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ayanna Pressley", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Inslee", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitch McConnell", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lindsey Graham", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jo Jorgensen", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Karen Bass", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Collins", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Tester", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Manchin", + "probability": 0.0014854467028476168, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron Johnson", + "probability": 0.0015768588076382395, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Glenn Youngkin", + "probability": 0.004270659270686899, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amy Klobuchar", + "probability": 0.007321130178320397, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Rice", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Adams", + "probability": 0.00277015736476988, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tim Ryan", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Herschel Walker", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Fetterman", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Josh Mandel", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Winsome Sears", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kevin McCarthy", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitch Landrieu", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Polis", + "probability": 0.0010249582249648556, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Cuban", + "probability": 0.001138842472183173, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tim Scott", + "probability": 0.002277684944366346, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 770350.86 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Pete Buttigieg, Mike Pompeo, Elizabeth Warren, Tucker Carlson, Kristi Noem, Dwayne Johnson, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nina Turner, Donald Trump Jr., Hillary Clinton, Ivanka Trump, Candace Owens, Tulsi Gabbard, Liz Cheney, Michael Bloomberg, Eric Garcetti, Matt Gaetz, Michelle Obama, Mitt Romney, Meghan Markle, Ben Carson, Dan Crenshaw, Cory Booker, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Oprah Winfrey, John Kerry, Rick Scott, Sherrod Brown, Condoleezza Rice, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Eric Holder, Eric Swalwell, Caitlyn Jenner, Christopher Sununu, Al Gore, Beto O'Rourke, Rob Portman, Rashida Tlaib, Jeb Bush, Deval Patrick, Greg Abbott, Ayanna Pressley, Jay Inslee, Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Jo Jorgensen, Karen Bass, Susan Collins, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, Ron Johnson, Glenn Youngkin, Amy Klobuchar, Susan Rice, Eric Adams, Tim Ryan, Herschel Walker, John Fetterman, Josh Mandel, Winsome Sears, Kevin McCarthy, Mitch Landrieu, Jared Polis, Mark Cuban, Tim Scott" + }, + { + "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through February?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7708/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-February", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:51.150Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 105578 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:14.678Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 62, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:46.070Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 196, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2120-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-march-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page ([FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/)). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 40.0%", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 55.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:31.629Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 901, + "numforecasters": 252, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 40.0%, Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive, Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%, Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive, Higher than 55.0%" + }, + { + "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:20.594Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 120, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/339-how-will-the-number-of-defense-innovation-unit-transitions-change-over-the-next-three-years", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Context. The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) was founded in 2015 with a mission to \"strengthen U.S. national security by increasing the military's adoption of commercial technology.\" In response to DoD needs for commercial solutions, it solicits proposals, primarily from small businesses or non-traditional defense contractors. Successful applicants are contracted to develop prototypes. Transitions are successful prototypes that lead to large-volume procurement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data in the DIU annual report, typically published in February or March of the following year.***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * * \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:29.389Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasters": 48, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2127-what-will-be-the-us-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Office vacancy rates increased sharply during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([Flatland KC](https://www.flatlandkc.org/news-issues/future-of-work-the-future-of-workplaces/), [NY Business Journal](https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2021/09/07/columbia-property-trust-acquired.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-commercial-real-estate)). The outcome will be determined using the US office vacancy rate as reported in the Colliers Q4 2022 Office Market Outlook report, expected in February 2023 ([Colliers](https://www.colliers.com/en/countries/united-states/commercial-real-estate-research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 11.4%; the rate for Q2 2021, at question launch, was 14.7% ([Colliers - Q4 2019](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/2019-q4-us-office-market-outlook-report), [Colliers - Q2 2021](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/office-market-outlook-q2-2021)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 12.5%", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 17.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:22.944Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasters": 39, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive, Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%, Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive, Higher than 17.0%" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Angola in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Angola is Lourenco, who has been in power for 3.5 years. Angola has a party regime type which has lasted for 45 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0114453", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9885547, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Angola", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lourenco", + "month_risk": "0.0022173", + "annual_risk": "0.0114453", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "45", + "leader_years": "3.5", + "country_code": "AGO", + "country_abb": "ANG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bulgaria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Bulgaria is Boiko Borisov, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Bulgaria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0085188", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9914812, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Bulgaria", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Boiko Borisov", + "month_risk": "0.0005461", + "annual_risk": "0.0085188", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "3.833333", + "country_code": "BGR", + "country_abb": "BUL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Cyprus in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Cyprus is Nikos Anastasiadis, who has been in power for 8.1 years. Cyprus has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 61 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0017092", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9982908, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Cyprus", + "regime_type": "Foreign", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nikos Anastasiadis", + "month_risk": "0.0001423", + "annual_risk": "0.0017092", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "61", + "leader_years": "8.083333", + "country_code": "CYP", + "country_abb": "CYP" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_%28United_States%29) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:15.166Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 159, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit projected created by The Boring Company using Tesla Motors vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers with testing using automated systems [planned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/) later on in 2021. Determination of autonomous operation will use criteria similar to this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/).\nThe LVCC project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. This question will determine if such a feat is being replicated.\nWill TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop <2030?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2030, The Boring Company page indicates two autonomous transit system projects completed outside the Las Vegas Metro area with more than 15 miles each of Tunnels. Each system must demonstrate carrying more than 1000 passengers per day and operate autonomously for over 30 days.\nOperation should be supported by press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Washington Post or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) posted to the discussion section below. If no such articles are posted, this question resolves as no.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:49.069Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 27, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-15T22:52:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8495/fewer-than-400-us-colleges-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%.\nBy 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are fewer than 400 public 4 year colleges in the US in any year after 2018, up to and including the 2049-2050 school term, according to [NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If NCES no longer reports this data, other credible sources may be used. If the school year is no longer over a similar period, the final term can be any period which ends in 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:45.534Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 16, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2041-01-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)\nWill the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?\nAn ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:37.676Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 178, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-20T08:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-01-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:54.590Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 31, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8989/1-nations-with-10-covid-vaccine-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9031/low-income-countries-vaccinated-by-eoy-2022/) \nAs the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) is spreading globally, [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv).\n\"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” [said Lawrence Gostin](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed and global vaccine distribution, [set an initial target](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.\n\"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries,\" said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, [estimated in November 2021](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters) that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.\nWill any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if on December 31, 2022, any nation reports that less than 10% of their population has recieved at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#what-share-of-the-population-has-received-at-least-one-dose-of-the-covid-19-vaccine). Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.\nResolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:45.232Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 90, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Mexico in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Mexico is Lopez Obrador, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Mexico has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0045819", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9954181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Mexico", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lopez Obrador", + "month_risk": "0.0003739", + "annual_risk": "0.0045819", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "21", + "leader_years": "2.25", + "country_code": "MEX", + "country_abb": "MEX" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kiss Me More by Doja Cat win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-6", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Kiss Me More by Doja Cat has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 29120 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:16.495Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 135, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:10.746Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8183/cryptid-discovery-shakes-up-science-by-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Across the world, people report seeing unidentified or out-of-place animals: those unknown to science, thought to be long extinct, or with strange abilities, behaviours or physiologies. \n\"Nessie\", \"Bigfoot\" and the \"Yowie\" are iconic figures that many people want to exist. More prosaically, people report seeing [Tasmanian tigers](https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-24/tasmanian-tiger-thylacine-sighting-debunked-pademelon/13186806) (extinct since the 1930s) as well as [big cats in the Australian bush](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-13/could-the-lithgow-panther-actually-exist/9116232).\nSometimes these observations serve an ideological purpose, as with [creationists who say reports of dinosaurs and other prehistoric animals present in the current day or recent history challenge the theory of natural selection](https://theconversation.com/at-the-evangelical-creation-museum-dinosaurs-lived-alongside-humans-and-the-world-is-6-000-years-old-142145). \nOther times they are more or less obvious hoaxes, or clear examples of people fooling themselves. \nCounter examples often given by cryptozoologists are the okapi, once considered a mythical jungle horse by Europeans; the coelacanth, a \"living fossil\"; the giant squid, which might explain \"kraken\" sightings; and the platypus, a seemingly impossible egg-laying mammal. \nNotably, these discoveries are decades or centuries old, and half of them are ocean-dwelling. But while Occam's razor, ecology and evolutionary science suggest cryptozoologists are wrong about most cryptids, are they wrong about all of them? \nI have designed the question in this way because I'm interested in questions that resolve positive if any one of many improbable outcomes come true, as a way of allowing for predictions on questions that most people would say are below 1% probability.\nWill a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?\nResolves positive if any of the following are satisfied: \n---One of the following \"extinct\" species is found alive or recently dead: A living Tasmanian tiger, mammoth, passenger pigeon, Steller's sea cow, quagga, dodo or great auk is discovered. \n---Phantom cats: The existence of big cats (Panthera genus, cheetah or cougar) in Australia or Western Europe is confirmed, including evidence of mating in the wild. \n---Bigfoot, yowie or sasquatch: Great apes are discovered that are native to anywhere other than Africa or South-East Asia. This can be an existing species or an entirely new one, as long as it is not considered to have been recently (last 50 years) introduced to the area. \n---Loch Ness monster and friends: A new species of megafauna (adults routinely exceed 45 kilograms) is discovered in Loch Ness, the Okanagan Valley, Lake Manitoba, Lake Ikeda or Lake Kussharo. \n---Mokele-mbembe: A new species of gigantic reptile (adults routinely exceeding 1 tonne) or rhinocerous is discovered in the Congo River Basin. \n---Chupacabra: A new species of vertebrate is discovered in Puerto Rico that is observed killing livestock by drinking their blood. \n---Mongolian death worm: A new species of large invertebrate (adults routinely exceed one foot in length) is discovered in the Gobi Desert. \n---Pterodactyls: A new species is discovered that descends from the Pterosauria clade. \nIn all cases, the test is whether the scientific consensus changes in the face of convincing evidence - for example, DNA or a physical specimen recovered. It is not enough that a minority of scientists in the relevant field are convinced.\nIn the absence of convincing DNA evidence or a physical specimen, scientific consensus will be considered established if more papers arguing for the discovery appear in journals of [SENSE top-ranked publishers (A rating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rankings_of_academic_publishers#SENSE_rankings) than against over a two-year period, with at least 10 papers appearing total.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:50.007Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:35.806Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will J. Michelle Childs become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-2", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If J. Michelle Childs is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if J. Michelle Childs is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 20, + "yes_ask": 21, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 6340 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the WV-02 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7578/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-WV-02-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 WV-02 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Alex Mooney", + "probability": 0.6407766990291263, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David McKinley", + "probability": 0.3592233009708738, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:30.425Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13389 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Alex Mooney, David McKinley" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\nA more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nanotechnology catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:39.729Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 85, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThere is concern that Omicron might be deadlier than Delta.\nWill the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is greater than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance increase, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant increase.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be less lethal than Delta.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:05.995Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1074, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7549/resolving-the-sunflower-conjecture/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nWill the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal resolving the sunflower conjecture. If there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:28.839Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 24, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 500,000 on February 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-500000-on-february-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 500,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.006295795037386186050068628217109352", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9937042049626138139499313717828906", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "280", + "liquidity": "75.42", + "tradevolume": "52472.38", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8605/most-of-us-ic-favor-covid-lab-leak-hypothesis/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n---\"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\" \n---\"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\" \n---\"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\" \n---\"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\" \nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n---\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\" \n---\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\" \n---\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\" \nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"\nBy 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025-01-01 a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question. \nFor example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis (\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure\"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis (\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident\"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis (\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation\"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.\nNote that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. \"moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from\" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other. \nThis question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.\nA statement by the IC or credible media reports must come out before 2025-01-01 for this to resolve positively — i.e., this will resolve on the basis of when such information/statement comes out publicly and not when the assessment itself was made.\nNot all IC organizations have to express support for either hypothesis or even need to express a view at all. Rather, a simple majority of the IC organizations that do express that they at least somewhat favor one hypothesis over the other will be considered for resolution.\nIf an equal number of IC organizations favor either hypothesis (e.g. 4 favor the lab leak hypothesis and 4 favor the natural origin hypothesis), this resolves negatively.\nThe definitions of the lab leak and natural origin hypotheses used by the IC at time of resolution are what will be considered — e.g., if the IC considers \"sampling\" by members of a Hubei lab to fall under the lab leak hypothesis, then that is the definition Metaculus will use at time of resolution. However, if the definitions are unclear or ambiguous, then we will consider anything involving laboratory personnel who are doing research-related work of any kind to fall under the purview of the lab leak hypothesis, while all else falls under the natural origin hypothesis. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:27.641Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 48, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S. Senate on 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "23 or fewer", + "probability": 0.2815533980582524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "24", + "probability": 0.18446601941747573, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "25", + "probability": 0.1553398058252427, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "26", + "probability": 0.1650485436893204, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "27", + "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "28", + "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "29", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "30 or more", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:49.410Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 118904 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "23 or fewer, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the prime minister of Hungary on July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7643/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Hungary-on-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of Hungary at the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Viktor Orbán", + "probability": 0.7403846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Péter Márki-Zay", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "László Toroczkai", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:19.787Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 12723 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Viktor Orbán, Péter Márki-Zay, László Toroczkai" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate ([Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/rubio-pushes-for-new-china-sanctions-amid-questions-over-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory-210036093.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/wuhan-lab-leak-sanctions-republicans-a2b98782-17f6-4d9c-b016-8da0885796e1.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/lab-leak-theory-s-revival-risks-upending-any-u-s-china-detente)). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/asia/us-hong-kong-china-sanctions-intl-hnk/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-sanctions/u-s-sanctions-two-more-chinese-officials-over-alleged-xinjiang-abuses-idUSKBN2BE289), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-beijing-south-china-sea-coronavirus-pandemic-china-01a64686a1b740b919af7b9d32d1c295)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:48.349Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 388, + "numforecasters": 181, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:20.686Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 153, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jimmie Allen win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-2", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Jimmie Allen has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 17062 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2173-how-many-seats-in-the-national-assembly-will-the-fidesz-party-s-list-win-in-the-next-hungarian-parliamentary-election", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/could-viktor-orban-be-voted-out-of-office), [Budapest Beacon](https://budapestbeacon.com/fidesz-kdnp-announces-joint-national-party-list/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/hungary-viktor-orban-wins-supermajority-for-third-consecutive-term-in-office.html)). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them ([New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/10/why-hungarys-opposition-parties-are-uniting-against-viktor-orban), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/577133-conservative-wins-hungary-opposition-race-as-anti-orban-parties-unite)). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats)", + "probability": 0.68, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:05.680Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasters": 117, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more), A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats), Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)" + }, { "title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/349-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months", @@ -380,177 +39175,114 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which party will lead in 538 Congressional generic ballot polling for Feb. 2?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7717/Which-party-will-lead-in-538-Congressional-generic-ballot-polling-for-Feb-2", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "**Please note that the this market now resolves on Thursday based on the polling average for Wednesday**\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the difference in the FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling average for the 2022 midterm election, for February 2 at the End Date listed below. \nThe official polling lead will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/, as displayed on the graph for February 2 at the End Date listed below. Should the graph not display a number for February at the End Date, this market shall resolve based on the number displayed at the End Date for the most recent prior day.\nThe polling lead will be calculated by subtracting the number displayed on the graph for February 2 for \"Republicans\" from the number displayed for \"Democrats,\" or vice versa depending on which party is leading or if there is a tie. No other method of calculating the generic ballot leader shall be relevant. Should the relevant polling average contain either a tie or a Democratic lead, the contract identifying the range \"≤ GOP 0.7%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/03/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "≤ GOP 0.7%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 0.8%-1.0%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 1.1%-1.3%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 1.4%-1.6%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 1.7%-1.9%", - "probability": 0.9252336448598131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 2.0%-2.2%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 2.3%-2.5%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP 2.6%-2.8%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "GOP ≥ 2.9%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:47.395Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 94908 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "≤ GOP 0.7%, GOP 0.8%-1.0%, GOP 1.1%-1.3%, GOP 1.4%-1.6%, GOP 1.7%-1.9%, GOP 2.0%-2.2%, GOP 2.3%-2.5%, GOP 2.6%-2.8%, GOP ≥ 2.9%" - }, - { - "title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8675/space-debris-causes-fatality-before-2035/", + "title": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8779/spacex-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety.\nWill space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?\nThe question resolves as positive if, between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, a fatality in space is attributed to space debris, according to major national space agencies or credible media reports.\n", + "description": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp, doing business as [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), is an American aerospace manufacturer, space transportation services and communications corporation headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. SpaceX manufactures the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, several rocket engines, Dragon cargo and crew spacecraft and Starlink communications satellites.\nIn November 2021, it was [reported that SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk had warned employees that the company \"face[s] genuine risk of bankruptcy if we cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/elon-musk-to-spacex-starships-raptor-engine-crisis-risks-bankruptcy.html) amid struggles in mass-producing Raptor engines for the company's nascent Starship series of launch vehicles.\nWill SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if SpaceX files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date. \nOnly petitions filed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp, or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of SpaceX's business (as judged by moderators) as of November 2021, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:07:27.187Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:58.939Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 156, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-31T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n", + "title": "Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2151-before-1-october-2022-will-facebook-announce-that-mark-zuckerberg-will-cease-to-be-the-company-s-sole-chairman-or-ceo", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-misinformation-public-60-minutes-2021-10-03/), [Endgadget](https://www.engadget.com/mark-zuckerberg-denies-facebook-profit-over-safety-033717690.html), [Quartz](https://qz.com/2069983/mark-zuckerberg-rejects-facebook-whistleblowers-allegations/)). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 28 October 2021: We are aware of Facebook's name change to Meta. For the purposes of this question, consider this change in and of itself to be immaterial.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:44:14.813Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:47.759Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" - }, + "numforecasts": 304, + "numforecasters": 183, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will Boris Johson officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160683973", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "For settlement purposes, leading the party in an \"acting leader\" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual's tenure as party leader. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void (Updated - 20/06/2020)", + "title": "Will **Joe Biden's approval rating** be greater than 40.5% on February 04, 2022? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-021", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than 40.5% at 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", "options": [ { - "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.5870841487279844, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.1467710371819961, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.26614481409001955, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, - "volume": 598728.33 + "yes_bid": 89, + "yes_ask": 91, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 15344 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a **G3 geomagnetic storm** by March 01, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GSTORM-011", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the maximum Planetary K-Index between Issuance (10:00 AM ET/2:00 PM UTC on January 19, 2022) and March 01, 2022 (inclusive) is at least 7 (equivalent to a G3 geomagnetic storm), then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see GSTORM in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, as well as further details about the market.\n\nPlease note that the Exchange shall use the date as reported by the Source Agency, and will not make manual time zone adjustments. The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, the first 10:00 AM ET following release of all of the data in the period between Issuance and March 01, 2022 or one week following March 01, 2022. The Last Trading Time shall be the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, or 11:59 PM ET on March 01, 2022.. The resolution source is: The maximum Planetary K-index as reported by the Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (undefined)", + "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:16.167Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 22, - "yes_ask": 26, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 3990 + "numforecasts": 168, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -571,7 +39303,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -592,119 +39324,348 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.\nWill there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.\n[EIDT] Sylvain 2021-09-02: reversed the title, which was the opposite of the resolution criteria.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:52.683Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7819/afghanistan-based-anti-nato-terrorism-by-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks.\nWill Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event that both of the below are true, based on credible media reports: \n1--A terrorist attack that kill at least 10 people has been conducted against a NATO nation by December 31, 2026. Such an attack must occur outside of Afghanistan. \nAND\n2--This terrorist attack was carried out by: \n------A member of the Afghan Taliban, or \n------A member of any terrorist organization funded, supported, or protected by the Afghan Taliban. \n--- \nResolution will be based on credible media reports of a determination by any of the below entities: \n------The United States federal government \n------NATO \n------The European Union \n--- \nIf one or more such attacks have not been confirmed by any of the above entities, then this question will resolve negatively.\n1-- \nAn attack will be considered \"against a NATO nation\" if it occurs within a NATO nation's internationally recognized borders, or is deliberately targeted towards a NATO nation's government facilities or personnel overseas (e.g. embassy or military base) outside of Afghanistan. A terrorist attack within a non-NATO nation that is not targeted at a NATO nation's government facility or personnel (e.g. an attack on a sports stadium in India that incidentally kills >10 NATO nationals) will not be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. \n2-- \nIf the attacks result in the deaths of the attackers, such as in a suicide bombing, those deaths will not count towards the resolution criteria, even if the attackers are citizens of a NATO nation. \n3-- \nWhat counts as a \"terrorist organization\" will be determined by the US federal government, NATO, or the European Union. \n4-- \nIn the event that NATO ceases to exist by the resolution date, the question will resolve negatively if no such attack occurs prior to NATO's dissolution.\n5-- \nAny terrorist attacks that occur while the Taliban are not in control of Afghanistan will not trigger a positive resolution. The Taliban will be considered in control of Afghanistan if they control either Kabul or a majority (18+ / 34) [provincial capitals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:27:59.529Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 53, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-06-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kiss Me More by Doja Cat win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-6", + "title": "Will Japanese Breakfast win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-6", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Kiss Me More by Doja Cat has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "description": "If Japanese Breakfast has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, + "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 0, "yes_ask": 1, "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 9168 + "shares_volume": 12564 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign by Mar. 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7559/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-by-Mar-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "title": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8102/times-university-ranking-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In September 2021, the University of St Andrews placed first in the UK on the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022. This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-univers…](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-university-rankings-revealed-the-times-league-table-dbxtwgm70)\nWill a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?\nThis question will resolve positive if neither Oxford nor Cambridges places first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023. It resolves negative if Oxford or Cambridge place first. It will resolve ambiguously if the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide is discontinued. \nThe ranking will be published in late September 2022. Positive resolution will be ascertained by the official publication of the ranking on [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:55.282Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bangladesh in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Bangladesh is Hasina Wazed, who has been in power for 12.2 years. Bangladesh has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 12 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0037636", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9962364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Bangladesh", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Hasina Wazed", + "month_risk": "0.0003138", + "annual_risk": "0.0037636", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "12", + "leader_years": "12.16667", + "country_code": "BGD", + "country_abb": "BNG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Jordan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Jordan is Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi, who has been in power for 22.1 years. Jordan has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 75 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0060049", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9939951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Jordan", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi", + "month_risk": "0.0004805", + "annual_risk": "0.0060049", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "75", + "leader_years": "22.08333", + "country_code": "JOR", + "country_abb": "JOR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2210-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-the-philippines", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Various familiar names are in the race to be the next president of the Philippines, scheduled for 9 May 2022 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/the-philippine-opposition-tries-to-push-back-against-authoritarianism), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2021-11-23/investor-s-guide-to-the-2022-philippine-presidential-election), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/28/1058884480/duterte-marcos-and-political-dynasties-in-the-philippine-presidential-election)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Christopher \"Bong\" Go", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr.", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "name": "Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Maria \"Leni\" Robredo", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another candidate", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:20.556Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:53.186Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 166303 + "numforecasts": 278, + "numforecasters": 135, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Christopher \"Bong\" Go, Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr., Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno, Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao, Maria \"Leni\" Robredo, Another candidate" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2184-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-russia-and-ukraine-resulting-in-at-least-three-fatalities-before-15-september-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337), [REF/RL](https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-ukrain-military-threat/31523260.html)). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 November 2021: Cyberattacks would not count.\nNOTE 11 January 2022: The fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:38.732Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 699, + "numforecasters": 216, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "At least three US counties lock down (close haircut appointments) due to Omicron by EOY 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A258", + "title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).\nIf there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:24.379Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 15, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bitfinex is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. Their customers' money has been stolen or lost in several incidents.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:40.591Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bongbong Marcos", + "probability": 0.6822429906542056, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Leni Robredo", + "probability": 0.1588785046728972, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Manny Pacquiao", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Panfilo Lacson", + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Isko Moreno", + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Antonio Trillanes", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonny Angara", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alan Peter Cayetano", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bong Go", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ernesto Abella", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Leody de Guzman", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Norberto Gonzales", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:00.087Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 106693 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Bongbong Marcos, Leni Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, Panfilo Lacson, Isko Moreno, Sara Duterte-Carpio, Antonio Trillanes, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano, Bong Go, Ernesto Abella, Leody de Guzman, Norberto Gonzales" + }, + { + "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Renacci", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A85", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ @@ -719,103 +39680,47 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-16T00:00:00.000Z", + "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8495/fewer-than-400-us-colleges-by-2050/", + "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%.\nBy 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are fewer than 400 public 4 year colleges in the US in any year after 2018, up to and including the 2049-2050 school term, according to [NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If NCES no longer reports this data, other credible sources may be used. If the school year is no longer over a similar period, the final term can be any period which ends in 2050.\n", + "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:55:54.051Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:28.021Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 224, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2041-01-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9533/china-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/", + "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:45:02.328Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Opyn airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opyn-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Opyn will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4002192521213817263708262124718694", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5997807478786182736291737875281306", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "46", - "liquidity": "603.92", - "tradevolume": "2407.74", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2164-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-july-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-china-army-commanders-meet-defuse-tensions-80506130)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -828,111 +39733,237 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:14.585Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:08.003Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 240, - "numforecasters": 124, + "numforecasts": 160, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8618/tirzepatide-approved-for-weight-loss-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide), called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs.\nWill tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve tirzepatide for the treatment of weight loss by 2025-01-01. This may be a successful development by Eli Lilly, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n", + "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by May 17th?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-may-17th", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": "0.2338446479970205468874573676323849", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "probability": "0.7661553520029794531125426323676151", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:52.539Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": "16", + "liquidity": "771.54", + "tradevolume": "1316.62", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\nWill a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2022 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n---Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive. \n---Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive. \nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. It is a shorter term companion to [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8664/patient-philanthropy-harder-in-the-us-by-30/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:27.547Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-18T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-06-28T11:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Nicaragua in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "By 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-by-2032/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Risks from Artificial intelligence](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/) are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.\nIn Toby Ord's recent book [The Precipice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity) he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.\nThis question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years.\nBy 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?\nThis question resolves positively if there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been an event precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 100+ deaths or $1bn 2021 USD in economic damage before Jan 1st 2032.\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for resolution.\nTo count as precipitated by AI malfunction an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\nIf, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution. \nAn AI system being used in warfare and causing 100+ deaths in the course of its expected behaviour is an example of something which should not count.\nA system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:58.333Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 32, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:39.137Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 142, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 [in 1914](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-stock-exchange-shut-down-1914-2014-7?r=US&IR=T).\nWill there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a period of at least 12 consecutive months before the end of 2120 during which there are no public US stock exchanges open for trading.\nWe'll use the definition of stock market/exchange on [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp) ([archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20210518172600/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp)):\nThe stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where regular activities of buying, selling, and issuance of shares of publicly-held companies take place.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:38.272Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 61, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Switzerland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Nicaragua is Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 14.2 years. Nicaragua has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 0 years", + "description": "The current leader of Switzerland is Parmelin, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Switzerland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 172 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.017831", + "probability": "0.0005565", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982169, + "probability": 0.9994435, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Nicaragua", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "country_name": "Switzerland", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Daniel Ortega", - "month_risk": "0.0007212", - "annual_risk": "0.017831", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.22", - "regime_years": "0", - "leader_years": "14.16667", - "country_code": "NIC", - "country_abb": "NIC" + "leader_name": "Parmelin", + "month_risk": "0.0000463", + "annual_risk": "0.0005565", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.04", + "regime_years": "172", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "CHE", + "country_abb": "SWZ" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which party will win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2161-which-party-will-win-control-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-in-the-2022-midterm-elections", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections ([270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/current-us-house-map/)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022)). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", "options": [ { - "name": "Democratic Party", - "probability": 0.2, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Republican Party", - "probability": 0.8, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:18.618Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:58.470Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 405, - "numforecasters": 239, + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Leave the Door Open by Silk Sonic win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-7", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Leave the Door Open by Silk Sonic has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -945,46 +39976,925 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:08.478Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 28632 + "numforecasts": 163, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", + "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n", + "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:52:32.167Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:32.247Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2231-how-many-total-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-as-of-1-may-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/19/omicron-variant-doubling-covid-updates/8952895002/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths), parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 900,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 1,275,000", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:21.084Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 305, + "numforecasters": 102, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 900,000, Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive, More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000, Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive, More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000, Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive, More than 1,275,000" + }, + { + "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.5% in January 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-016", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 57, + "yes_ask": 61, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 10676 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's December meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-013", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's December 14, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their December 14, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 80, + "yes_ask": 83, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 5824 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 worldwide will be reported as of 28 July 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2191-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-worldwide-will-be-reported-as-of-28-july-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The data for 28 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 July 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 6.0 million", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "8.0 million or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:24.555Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasters": 64, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6.0 million, Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive, More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million, Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive, More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million, 8.0 million or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:16.808Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 44, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-04T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:17.454Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 160, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bored Ape Yacht Club airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-ape-yacht-club-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6216577903892111853591595721228427", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3783422096107888146408404278771573", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "94", + "liquidity": "923.71", + "tradevolume": "20859.80", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:12.767Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 96, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", + "probability": 0.6456692913385826, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", + "probability": 0.007874015748031496, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", + "probability": 0.007874015748031496, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0.031496062992125984, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No election in 2021", + "probability": 0.30708661417322836, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abshir Aden Ferro, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Someone else, No election in 2021" + }, + { + "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.4% in January 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-015", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 82, + "yes_ask": 85, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 18894 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:45.538Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 60, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:05.976Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 314, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:49.498Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 447, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-24T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2. \nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\".\nWill the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 8,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nThis question resolves negative if less than 4,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nIf the area is between these amounts we will resolve ambiguous.\nIf the dispute is resolved before the ICJ decides, we will still resolve on the same area based system.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:53.166Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 18, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Herschel Walker", + "probability": 0.822429906542056, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gary Black", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Latham Saddler", + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Collins", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kelly Loeffler", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Perdue", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Kemp", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Geoff Duncan", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Carr", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vernon Jones", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kelvin King", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Buddy Carter", + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:00.267Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 809946 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Latham Saddler, Doug Collins, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones, Kelvin King, Buddy Carter" + }, + { + "title": "Will the **federal funds rate** be above 0.5% following the Fed's March meeting? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-015", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's March 16, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their March 16, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 15, + "yes_ask": 18, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 30176 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:32.599Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 226, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Monaco in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Monaco is Albert, who has been in power for 15.9 years. Monaco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 110 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0037159", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9962841, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Monaco", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Albert", + "month_risk": "0.0002899", + "annual_risk": "0.0037159", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "110", + "leader_years": "15.91667", + "country_code": "MCO", + "country_abb": "MNC" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:27.474Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 65, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Zora airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zora-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Zora will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3449832559651047730234552012046142", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6550167440348952269765447987953858", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "52", + "liquidity": "2502.18", + "tradevolume": "2593.46", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be more than 217 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-217-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 217,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1452714895145267584401157265255346", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8547285104854732415598842734744654", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "101", + "liquidity": "978.32", + "tradevolume": "4135.46", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Sao Tome and Principe in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Sao Tome and Principe is Carvalho, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Sao Tome and Principe has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0211614", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9788386, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Sao Tome and Principe", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Carvalho", + "month_risk": "0.0008311", + "annual_risk": "0.0211614", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "4.5", + "country_code": "STP", + "country_abb": "STP" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\nA lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown—more than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?\nWill there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?\nLockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n--- \nAt least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n--- \nDuring at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n--- \nThe Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.\nDisputes related to question wording will be determined using admin discretion. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:55.012Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 29, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9491/singaporean-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:24.986Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least one person in the NYT collectively makes at least 20 falsifiable predictions (with odds) by 3 Feb 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A98", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/satoshis-bitcoins-spent-by-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nWill any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075? \nThis question will resolve positively if any bitcoin known to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto's original wallet addresses have been transferred, according to credible media reports.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, this will not count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else who then spend them, this will qualify for resolution. Any transactions in any amount of bitcoin will qualify for resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:53.887Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 180, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-05-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on May 20, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-may-20-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, May 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5831353879473843373956860918714439", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4168646120526156626043139081285561", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "110", + "liquidity": "3287.08", + "tradevolume": "1680.12", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Vermont?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7609/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Vermont", @@ -1007,7 +40917,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:45.926Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:21.387Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 14419 @@ -1015,10 +40925,617 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican, Independent" }, { - "title": "In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2119-in-united-states-v-tsarnaev-will-the-supreme-court-reinstate-the-death-sentence-imposed-against-boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/US/jury-reaches-verdict-boston-marathon-bombing-penalty-phase/story?id=31067121)). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-tsarnaev-22), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/us/boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-sentence-vacated/index.html), [American Bar Association](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/committees/death_penalty_representation/project_press/2020/fall-2020/tsarnaev-death-sentence-reversed/)). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-443), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56482800)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350). \nWill there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations before 2050. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:35.105Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T21:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8391/nuclear-conflict-during-summer-season/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n“Nuclear conflict” will be defined as a situation in which there is state use of at least one nuclear weapon against another actor’s territory and/or forces. This state use could be deliberate, inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorised but by an actor in the state’s chain of command (see fine print for definitions). This excludes non-state use of nuclear weapons.\nIf nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?\nThe question resolves positively if the first nuclear strike in the first nuclear conflict before 2030-01-01 happens between June 1st and September 30th inclusive (of any year). \nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict in this period.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:33.182Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:31.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 192, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\nI'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\nnotany replied,\n@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.\nWill Trump flee the United States?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:01.373Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 183, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:50.106Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 74, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 2024", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A3", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2020-11-05T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 US Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:25.390Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 561, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the TX-30 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7630/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-TX-30-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirtieth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Jasmine Crockett", + "probability": 0.8584905660377359, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jessica Mason", + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jane Hamilton", + "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vonciel Jones Hill", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Zachariah Manning", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abel Mulugheta", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shenita Cleveland", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:51.449Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 8831 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jasmine Crockett, Jessica Mason, Jane Hamilton, Vonciel Jones Hill, Zachariah Manning, Abel Mulugheta, Shenita Cleveland" + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:54.481Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 210, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Ivory Coast in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Ivory Coast is Ouattara, who has been in power for 9.9 years. Ivory Coast has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0105347", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9894653, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Ivory Coast", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ouattara", + "month_risk": "0.0005942", + "annual_risk": "0.0105347", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "10", + "leader_years": "9.916667", + "country_code": "CIV", + "country_abb": "CDI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:36.794Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 79, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Tim Ryan", + "probability": 0.9150943396226414, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Morgan Harper", + "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amy Acton", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joyce Beatty", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nan Whaley", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emilia Sykes", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:20.231Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 169828 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Morgan Harper, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).\nIf Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:51.609Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 134, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:55.208Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abiy Ahmed", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paul Kagame", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:05.485Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 189715 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Muhammadu Buhari, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Cyril Ramaphosa, Félix Tshisekedi, Paul Kagame, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Nana Akufo-Addo" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:32.626Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 79, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Fiji in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Fiji is Bainimarama, who has been in power for 14.2 years. Fiji has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 14 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0120465", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9879535, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Fiji", + "regime_type": "Military-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Bainimarama", + "month_risk": "0.0031693", + "annual_risk": "0.0120465", + "risk_change_percent": "0.07", + "regime_years": "14", + "leader_years": "14.16667", + "country_code": "FJI", + "country_abb": "FIJ" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1027,23 +41544,717 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:25.721Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:34.037Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 174, - "numforecasters": 66, + "numforecasts": 73, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8533/xi-jinping-leading-china-in-2030/", + "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.\nWill Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if either:\n---Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve negative if: \n---Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n---China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now. \n", + "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:24.246Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 20, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2167-what-will-be-the-us-domestic-auto-inventory-as-of-may-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/30/us-auto-sales-forecast-to-plummet-in-third-quarter-as-chip-shortage-plagues-industry.html), [Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a37823495/auto-dealers-low-inventory-profits/)). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA)). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 700.0 (thousands)", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:16.102Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 302, + "numforecasters": 102, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands), Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive, More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands), Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive, More than 700.0 (thousands)" + }, + { + "title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. \nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the US.\nWill there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-01. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:36.273Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 66, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2024, South Sudan signs the NPT, according to reputable sources. \nThis does not require that South Sudan actually [accedes](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to the NPT or even that it is seen as likely that South Sudan will do so.\nSee also\n---[Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/new-signatories-of-npt-by-2024/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:55.982Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/member-exits-eurozone-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nWill any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? \nThis question will resolve positively if, on or before January 1 2025, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency. The list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:33.284Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 314, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Moldova in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Moldova is Aureliu Ciocoi, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Moldova has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0059863", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9940137, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Moldova", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Aureliu Ciocoi", + "month_risk": "0.000465", + "annual_risk": "0.0059863", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "MDA", + "country_abb": "MLD" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8588/the-npt-withdrawal-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nA country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.\nIn 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif).\nBy 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, a country that joined the NPT before November 2021 actively withdraws from the treaty. The question will be resolved based on the data of [United Nations, Office for Disarmament Affairs](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt). \nIf a country that is party to the NPT ceases to exist or is replaced by one or more successor states (as happened with the Soviet Union and Russia, for example) and this results in the country no longer being part of the NPT, that will not be treated as active withdrawal for the purposes of this question, even if the successor state(s) is also not party to the NPT.\nFor the purposes of this question, North Korea will be treated as having already withdrawn, meaning that further actions by North Korea cannot themselves resolve this question positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:45.660Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic attorney general nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7694/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Anthony G. Brown", + "probability": 0.6306306306306306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katie O'Malley", + "probability": 0.33333333333333337, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luke Clippinger", + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Feldman", + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Frank Kratovil", + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "April Delaney", + "probability": 0.00900900900900901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:10.389Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 438 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony G. Brown, Katie O'Malley, Luke Clippinger, Brian Feldman, Frank Kratovil, April Delaney" + }, + { + "title": "How many votes to confirm Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair by March 31?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7678/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Jerome-Powell-as-Federal-Reserve-chair-by-March-31", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jerome Powell (the \"Nominee\") to be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\"). \nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "61 or fewer", + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "62 to 64", + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "65 to 67", + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "68 to 70", + "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "71 to 73", + "probability": 0.14678899082568805, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "74 to 76", + "probability": 0.2110091743119266, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "77 to 79", + "probability": 0.1834862385321101, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "80 to 82", + "probability": 0.1559633027522936, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "83 to 85", + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "86 or more", + "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:26.784Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 28137 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bored Apes", + "probability": "0.8362548977801030800302631877415958", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "CryptoPunks", + "probability": "0.1637451022198969199697368122584042", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "83", + "liquidity": "8484.59", + "tradevolume": "12522.26", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:24.997Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 253, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.\nWill most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?\nThis question resolves positively if more than 50 of the first 100 babies who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence are born in the People's Republic of China, according to credible reports. If 100 such babies are not born by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it must be the case that the polygenetic selection is done in part for the purpose of increasing the expected intelligence; incidental effects on expected intelligence arising from polygenetic selection or screening for non-intelligence-related traits should not trigger positive resoltion.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:29.509Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Right On Time by Brandi Carlile win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-10", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Right On Time by Brandi Carlile has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 27582 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:10.006Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 338, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Opyn airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opyn-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Opyn will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4002192521213817263708262124718694", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5997807478786182736291737875281306", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "46", + "liquidity": "603.92", + "tradevolume": "2407.74", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Mali in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Mali is Ba N'Daou, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Mali has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 1 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1240819", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8759181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Mali", + "regime_type": "Military Provisional", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ba N'Daou", + "month_risk": "0.0053785", + "annual_risk": "0.1240819", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.03", + "regime_years": "1", + "leader_years": "0.5", + "country_code": "MLI", + "country_abb": "MLI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:50.862Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\nThis question asks if he will hold that status as of year end 2025.\nWill Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) as of December 31st, 2025. It resolves negatively otherwise. \nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:16.962Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 174, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": " ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Xavier Bertrand", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pierre de Villiers", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anne Hidalgo", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yannick Jadot", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marine Le Pen", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.5779816513761468, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valérie Pécresse", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Piolle", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another woman", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another man", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Zemmour", + "probability": 0.29357798165137616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michel Barnier", + "probability": 0.03669724770642202, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another man", + "probability": 0.009174311926605505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Pierre de Villiers, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Piolle, Another woman, Another man, Eric Zemmour, Arnaud Montebourg, Michel Barnier, Another man" + }, + { + "title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8409/drones-deliver-100-million-parcels-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 [won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBuzzing drones of all shapes and sizes will be common the sky (last year Amazon won FAA approval for its delivery drone service, opening the door for this).\nAccording to the [Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index](https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html) 20.2 billion parcels were [shipped in 2020 in the United States](https://www.pitneybowes.com/content/dam/pitneybowes/us/en/shipping-index/pb_parcelshippinginfographic_2021_final.pdf).\n[According to the USPS](https://pe.usps.com/businessmail101?ViewName=Parcels#:~:text=If%20your%20mailpiece%20isn't,value%20for%20your%20postage%20dollars.) \nIf your mailpiece isn't a postcard, Letter, or a flat (large envelope) , then it's a parcel.\nWill aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if credible estimates state that aerial drones delivered 100 million or more parcels in the United States in any year between 2021 and 2049, inclusive. Drones need not be responsible for the entire delivery chain, parcels shipped by truck to a distribution center where aerial drones complete the deliveries would qualify. The definition of a parcel will conform to the USPS definition (see the link and quote in the question background).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1056,103 +42267,834 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:12.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:56.345Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 13, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T12:54:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which 2022 Senate race will be the closest?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7634/Which-2022-Senate-race-will-be-the-closest", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2022 Senate election that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates. Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round. Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.\nAll listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races unless otherwise stated.\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported. In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered. \nShould the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied, and in favor of a regular election over a special election in the same state. \nAdditional contracts may be added to this market subsequent to its launch.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "title": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7987/commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated.\nOne approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))\n[Commercial paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_paper) is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate.\nIn 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?\nThis question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core [CPI inflation](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E) is above 3%.\nThis resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the [3-month prime commercial paper interest rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPNA2P2D90NB).\nThis resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Georgia", - "probability": 0.14563106796116504, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Pennsylvania", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Colorado", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arizona", - "probability": 0.0970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.0970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alaska", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Wisconsin", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "North Carolina", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Oregon", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ohio", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Florida", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Missouri", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:26.736Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:50.378Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 45045 + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, New Hampshire, Alaska, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oregon, Ohio, Florida, Missouri" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.5544554455445545, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.44554455445544555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:33.516Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 23815 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7518/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Prime Minister Kishidia Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Xi\" and \"Kishida\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.5094339622641509, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Biden", + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Justin Trudeau", + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xi Jinping", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kishida Fumio", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:01.957Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 199440 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Cyril Ramaphosa, Xi Jinping, Kishida Fumio" + }, + { + "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", + "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n--\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--Will the Wiki be \"alive\"? \nBy 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?\nThe question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:21.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8164/yangs-forward-party-to-take-off/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\nFormer presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \nBusiness Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\nThe book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \nYang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?\nWill a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if any member of Congress, or the president, is at some point while holding office a member of the Forward Party before February 1st 2029. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nCredible media will be used for resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:13.419Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 79, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:22.709Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 79, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-fewer-than-1-3-million-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/united-airlines-demand-recovers-despite-delta-variant.html)). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 October 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 April 2022", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:44.200Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 384, + "numforecasters": 82, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021, Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022" + }, + { + "title": "Will an additional state join NATO by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-member-state-in-nato-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill an additional state join NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is not a part of NATO at the start of this tournament becomes a member of NATO effective no later than 2023-12-31. This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:24.782Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 79, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage of truck-bound containers that remain in terminals for more than 5 days at US West Coast ports in September 2022, according to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association (PMSA)?", + "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", + "platform": "Good Judgment", + "description": "Supply chain issues are a major concern, with US West Coast ports being identified as a principal cause of the congestion. The outcome will be determined by the September 2022 truck-bound \"Dwell Time in Days, % > 5 days\" container metric in the October 2022 PMSA West Coast Trade Report, expected the third week of October 2022. The October 2021 PMSA report indicates that this metric was 32.8% for September 2021 (see page 15).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lower than 9.0%", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 9.0% and 16.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 16.0% but lower than 23.0%", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 23.0% and 30.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Higher than 30.0%", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:15:34.531Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4 + }, + "extra": { + "superforecastercommentary": "
    " + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 16.0%, inclusive, Higher than 16.0% but lower than 23.0%, Between 23.0% and 30.0%, inclusive, Higher than 30.0%" + }, + { + "title": "When will Boris Johson officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160683973", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "For settlement purposes, leading the party in an \"acting leader\" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual's tenure as party leader. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void (Updated - 20/06/2020)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "2022", + "probability": 0.6722689075630252, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2023", + "probability": 0.12605042016806722, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "2024 or later", + "probability": 0.20168067226890757, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.258Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 609056.45 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later" + }, + { + "title": "Will early elections in the U.K. be called by July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7640/Will-early-elections-in-the-UK-be-called-by-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 13, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, the Parliament of the United Kingdom is dissolved and an early parliamentary general election is triggered. Such election need not be scheduled to take place, nor actually take place, by the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:10.803Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 18379 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.\nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state that the US has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that the US would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the US President; Secretary of Defense; Secretary of State; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; or the head of one of the US's armed services. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:14.430Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 52, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:35.266Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 868, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:23.588Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.\nBefore the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:44.462Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1016, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Section 230 be revoked or amended by January 20, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8774/section-230-revoked-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House staffer for Ronald Reagan, who joined hands with Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden in an effort to allow then-nascent Internet service providers to moderate online discussions and suppress pornography and other content. \nThe next year, the Supreme Court struck down most of the anti-porn provisions on freedom-of-speech grounds, and Section 230 was left as the main consequence of the new legislation: Internet providers, whether moderating content or not, were from then on fairly safe from lawsuits regarding any of the content they publish and any decisions on which users are allowed to publish.\nBacklash against Section 230 grew among Republicans and the right in the 2010s, as discussion groups and influential users with hundreds of thousands of followers, such as Yiannopoulos, were banned from platforms with no recourse. Democrats and the left also expressed significant concerns from the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017, following accusations that Facebook – in particular – was used to spread disinformation that benefited Trump’s campaign. \nTrump launched [an effort to terminate Section 230](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-preventing-online-censorship/) in May 2020. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden was also expressing support for striking down the controversial legislation, although he later took down [Trump’s executive order on the matter](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/biden-revokes-trump-executive-order-that-targeted-section-230/ar-BB1gLnW9).\nPolitical discussion is heating up on the issue and may heat up even further if the GOP regains control of Congress next year; Big Tech is resolutely opposed to the move – in March, Google CEO [Sundar Pichai warned Congress](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-ceo-warns-of-unintended-consequences-if-congress-kills-section-230-153748127.html) of unintended consequences if Section 230 were revoked.\nWill Section 230 be revoked or amended by January 20, 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to January 20, 2025, Section 230 of The Communications Decency Act of 1996 is revoked or modified in any way from its [current text](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_States_Code/Title_47/Chapter_5/Subchapter_II/Part_I/Section_230).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:53.738Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T15:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-22T15:26:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:22.116Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 368, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Iran recognize Israel by 2070?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7808/iran-recognizing-israel/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) does not recognize [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), and a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the \"Zionist regime\", \"occupied Palestine\", and the \"little Satan\", while they refer to the United States as the \"great Satan\". Before the [Iranian Revolution of 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), Iran and Israel [maintained close ties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Israeli_independence_to_Iranian_revolution_%281947%E2%80%9379%29).\nWill Iran recognize Israel by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) is legally recognized by [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\nThe recognition can be done by the Islamic Republic of Iran or by any state that has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:32.420Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Rs win OH 2022 Senate", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A155", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:10.212Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 242, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kanye West release 'Donda 2' (or another new album) by 2/22/22?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-west-release-donda-2-or-another-new-album-by-22222", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "'Donda 2' is the rumored title for Kanye West’s upcoming eleventh studio album, expected to be released on February 22, 2022. This will serve as the official sequel to Kanye’s tenth studio album of the same name, released back in August 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 'Donda 2' or another new album by Kanye West is released and is available via Spotify or Apple Music for streaming after January 28 and before February 22 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve “No.” \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the album must be listed under the albums section of Kanye West's profile, and streamable, on either Apple Music (currently at https://music.apple.com/us/artist/kanye-west/2715720/see-all?section=full-albums) or Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/artist/5K4W6rqBFWDnAN6FQUkS6x/discography/album) streaming platforms.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2887945245614586794300879645270454", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7112054754385413205699120354729546", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "92", + "liquidity": "10158.89", + "tradevolume": "8021.65", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will lead in 538 Congressional generic ballot polling for Feb. 9?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7728/Which-party-will-lead-in-538-Congressional-generic-ballot-polling-for-Feb-9", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "**Please note that the this market now resolves on Thursday based on the polling average for Wednesday**\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the difference in the FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling average for the 2022 midterm election, for February 9 at the End Date listed below. \nThe official polling lead will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/, as displayed on the graph for February 9 at the End Date listed below. Should the graph not display a number for February at the End Date, this market shall resolve based on the number displayed at the End Date for the most recent prior day.\nThe polling lead will be calculated by subtracting the number displayed on the graph for February 9 for \"Republicans\" from the number displayed for \"Democrats,\" or vice versa depending on which party is leading or if there is a tie. No other method of calculating the generic ballot leader shall be relevant. Should the relevant polling average contain either a tie or a Democratic lead, the contract identifying the range \"≤ GOP 0.8%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "≤ GOP 0.8%", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 0.9%-1.1%", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 1.2%-1.4%", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 1.5%-1.7%", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 1.8%-2.0%", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 2.1%-2.3%", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 2.4%-2.6%", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP 2.7%-2.9%", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "GOP ≥ 3.0%", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:52.513Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 6271 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "≤ GOP 0.8%, GOP 0.9%-1.1%, GOP 1.2%-1.4%, GOP 1.5%-1.7%, GOP 1.8%-2.0%, GOP 2.1%-2.3%, GOP 2.4%-2.6%, GOP 2.7%-2.9%, GOP ≥ 3.0%" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-%28male%29), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:10.287Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 294, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:42.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 84, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:26.942Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 165, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9513/boris-johnson-charged-with-a-crime-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been accused of allowing and attending parties at 10 Downing Street which went against the rules enacted under the Coronavirus Act. He is also alleged to have lied to Parliament about this and other matters. \nSeparately, there is an [ongoing](https://goodlawproject.org/case/100m-contract/) [scandal](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59968037) regarding government awards of PPE contracts for hundreds of millions of pounds to unqualified persons who were close to the Conservative party. It is possible that offences including misconduct in public office or Bribery Act violations have been committed during this period.\nThere have been a number of additional events which have called Johnson's integrity into question, including the [allegation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56878663) that he concealed evidence from the person investigating who paid for his flat refurbishment. It is possible that he will be charged with a criminal offence over this or other matters.\nWill Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is formally charged with any criminal offence on or before 31st December 2022 (UK time). Note that he doesn't need to be convicted of an offence, only charged. If he is arrested but not charged, this question resolves negatively. \nFor purposes of this question, being formally found in contempt of parliament does not constitute being charged with a crime. \nThis question will resolve positively based on an announcement by any UK police force or the Crown Prosecution Service or any other competent authority that Boris Johnson has been formally charged with any criminal offence. It will also resolve positively if there are widespread reports in credible media that Johnson has been charged with an offence.\nIf Johnson is charged on or before 31st Dec 2022 but the announcement is not made until 2023, the question still resolves positively. I have delayed the resolve date to 8th Jan 2023 to account for this possibility. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1165,14 +43107,1099 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:58.529Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:06.308Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 5581, + "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", + "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-12T22:19:37Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-11-30T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-08T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Iceland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Iceland is Katrín Jakobsdóttir, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Iceland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 76 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0015148", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9984852, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Iceland", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Katrín Jakobsdóttir", + "month_risk": "0.0001139", + "annual_risk": "0.0015148", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "76", + "leader_years": "3.333333", + "country_code": "ISL", + "country_abb": "ICE" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_%28volcano%29#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:42.354Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 187, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:07.769Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 165, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:01.966Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 68469 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S. Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Harriet Hageman", + "probability": 0.7169811320754716, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Cheney", + "probability": 0.16981132075471697, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anthony Bouchard", + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chuck Gray", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Denton Knapp", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bryan Miller", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Darin Smith", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bryan Keller", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robyn Belinskey", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Perry Pendley", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ed Buchanan", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bo Biteman", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Catharine O'Neill", + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:12.049Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 41739 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Harriet Hageman, Liz Cheney, Anthony Bouchard, Chuck Gray, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Darin Smith, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Perry Pendley, Ed Buchanan, Bo Biteman, Catharine O'Neill" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by February 21st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-february-21st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by February 21st, 2022. If Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before February 21st, 2022, 11:59pm ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by February 21, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1933285131181775929614904279148827", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8066714868818224070385095720851173", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "851", + "liquidity": "20562.29", + "tradevolume": "182751.20", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7577/Who-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Minnesota. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Paul Gazelka", + "probability": 0.43589743589743585, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Jensen", + "probability": 0.2649572649572649, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michelle Benson", + "probability": 0.19658119658119658, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Murphy", + "probability": 0.04273504273504273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neil Shah", + "probability": 0.025641025641025637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Karin Housley", + "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carla Nelson", + "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jennifer Carnahan", + "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Lindell", + "probability": 0.008547008547008546, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:27.015Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 18676 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Paul Gazelka, Scott Jensen, Michelle Benson, Mike Murphy, Neil Shah, Karin Housley, Carla Nelson, Jennifer Carnahan, Mike Lindell" + }, + { + "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_%28geneticist%29):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:12.293Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 56, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9591/tau-variant-by-tau-day-628/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Tau (τ) is proposed as a circle constant, the ratio of a circle's circumference by its radius; its value, 6.283185..., is twice that of the [most commonly used constant, π](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi).\nIn honor of half-tau, March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Some even more delightfully pedantic geeks, who contend that pi is wrong and want a pretext to eat twice as much pie, propose [tau day](https://tauday.com/) as a celebration on June 28 (6/28).\nTau is also a [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after ο, π, ρ, σ, which suggests it could be the name of a future named variant of SARS-COV-2 [declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, ν and ξ, have been skipped so far.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times. Beta and Gamma had some minor impact, and the others don't seem to have been very noteworthy - Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda and Mu.\nWill there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?\nThis question will resolve positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"tau\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by June 28, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about a future named variant using Tau Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter tau and goes straight to upsilon (or phi, chi...) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:35.113Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-12T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-29T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A186", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8127/nuclear-detonation-on-a-capital-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting)).\nWill there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there is at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city. It resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 but none of the detonations meet that criterion. It resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation after this question opens and before 2024.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:52.256Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8493/half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80).\nIn 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?\nThis question will resolve positively if in the year 2050, at least 50% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions are exclusively enrolled in distance education courses, according to the [National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80). If the NCES no longer reports this data, reliable alternate data sources may be used. If the NCES or alternate sources provide multiple data releases for the year 2050 (for example, a set of statistics for each semester) the result showing the largest share exclusively enrolled in distance education courses will be used.\nIn the event postsecondary education is no longer in a similar form as it was at the time the question was written, admins may use their discretion to determine if comparable data can be found for resolution and, if not, may resolve the question ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:40.342Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T22:14:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T22:14:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:52.363Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 407, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-10-29T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/) asked if the United States would rejoin the JCPOA, informally known as the [Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) before 2022. Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal.\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2023-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2023-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:01.196Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 238, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100-years-after-apollo/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nWill a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069? \nThis question will resolve positively if a living human sets foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC (100 years after the feat was achieved on the moon on Apollo 11). For resolution, credible media reports will suffice. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:29.158Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 426, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Feb. 9?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7727/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Feb-9", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for February 9 at the End Date listed below. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using \"All Polls\", as displayed on the graph for February 9 at the End Date listed below. \nAny number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than February 9 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market; however, should the graph not display a number for February 9, this market shall resolve based on the most recent number displayed at the End Date for a prior day.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "40.6% or lower", + "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "40.7% to 40.9%", + "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.0% to 41.2%", + "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.3% to 41.5%", + "probability": 0.19626168224299065, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.6% to 41.8%", + "probability": 0.21495327102803738, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41.9% to 42.1%", + "probability": 0.1588785046728972, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "42.2% to 42.4%", + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "42.5% to 42.7%", + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "42.8% or higher", + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:48.446Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 31516 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "40.6% or lower, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% to 42.1%, 42.2% to 42.4%, 42.5% to 42.7%, 42.8% or higher" + }, + { + "title": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8407/retail-locations-half-of-2020-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "E-commerce has grown in popularity and has caused many to speculate that physical shopping may become obsolete in the future. \nPhysical department store locations have faced a slow decline in recent years, with a sharper decline exacerbated by the pandemic in 2020 (see the section titled \"Number of department store locations in the US\" [here](https://www.vox.com/recode/21561046/death-rebirth-department-stores-retail-charts)).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about physical retail in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe majority of all current brick and mortar stores that are not located in scenic or tightly-packed downtowns will have closed. From stores that sell physical objects to chain restaurants, most of the physical locations you can go and shop will be gone. Instead, you will be able to get any product you would normally buy in a physical store delivered to you in under an hour, sometimes in mere minutes.\nWill retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2021 and 2050, at least 4 of the following 7 business categories report 50% fewer physical establishments than reported in 2020:\n---Electronics and appliance stores \n---Grocery stores \n---Health and personal care stores \n---Clothing stores \n---Shoe stores \n---Department stores \n---Limited-service restaurants \nResolution will be according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/). The categories above are fully defined by [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/) in the fine print. If BLS no longer reports this data or changes their classification or methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source of data or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.\nBLS categorizes businesses using [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/). categories are listed with the total number of establishments in the US for 2020 (as of November 24, 2021). BLS series IDs are useful for retrieving data from [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate).\nNAICS ID description 2020 number of establishments BLS series ID \n4431\nElectronics and appliance stores\n43643\nENUUS0002054431\n4451\nGrocery stores\n89545\nENUUS0002054451\n4461\nHealth and personal care stores\n112133\nENUUS0002054461\n4481\nClothing stores\n79968\nENUUS0002054481\n4482\nShoe stores\n15993\nENUUS0002054482\n4522\nDepartment stores\n11567\nENUUS0002054522\n722513\nLimited-service restaurants\n248416\nENUUS000205722513\nNumbers of establishments in 2020 will be used as above, unless there is more accurate data known to Metaculus Admins. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:46.045Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 21, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:53:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T20:53:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Ron Johnson", + "probability": 0.9514563106796116, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Gallagher", + "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Walker", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kevin Nicholson", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Steil", + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:54.252Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 128355 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil" + }, + { + "title": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8141/individual-city-hit-3-times-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Some people (e.g., [Rodriguez, 2019a](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FfxrwBdBDCg9YTh69/how-many-people-would-be-killed-as-a-direct-result-of-a-us#The_number_of_deaths_caused_by_nuclear_detonations_in_civilian_targets), [2019b](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_nuclear_detonations)) have argued that: \n--- \nIt's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)\n--- \nIf that happens, it could substantially increase the immediate fatalities and nuclear winter effects from nuclear conflict (since second, third, etc. detonations on cities like New York would have much larger effects than first detonations on much smaller targets)\nThe likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities could also be seen as an imperfect proxy for the expected total scale of a nuclear exchange, since such multiple detonations are probably more likely if large-scale [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting occurs.\nAltogether, a higher likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities would push in favor of (1) working to reduce nuclear risk and (2) doing so by reducing the chance of large-scale conflicts or countervalue targeting.\nWill an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?\nThe question conditions on there being at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a city after this question opens and before 2024. That is, it resolves ambiguously if that condition is not met.\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, for at least one individual city anywhere in the world, 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of that city. For example, it would resolve positively if there are 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations on New York, and/or 3 or more on Moscow, and/or 3 or more on Beijing. \nThe question resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over any city, but there are not 3 or more such detonations on or over any single city, even if there are 3 or more such detonations spread out across multiple cities. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, it does not matter whether a strike was intended to kill civilians or to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a city.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:54.700Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 50, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "DeSantis is 2024 POTUS", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A248", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Azerbaijan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Azerbaijan is Ilhma Aliyev, who has been in power for 17.4 years. Azerbaijan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0047507", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9952493, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Azerbaijan", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ilhma Aliyev", + "month_risk": "0.0004182", + "annual_risk": "0.0047507", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "17.41667", + "country_code": "AZE", + "country_abb": "AZE" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.\nWill one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:22.631Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 159, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:49.360Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 46, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:35.591Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 294, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:56.722Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 375, + "numforecasters": 153, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Saweetie win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-10", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Saweetie has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 13622 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the CDC identify a **variant of high consequence** by March 1, 2022? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VOHC-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the CDC identifies a variant of high consequence by March 1st, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to no. Please see VOHC in the rulebook for more details. . The resolution source is: The CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.696Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 5, + "yes_ask": 6, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 216882 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9573/scotus-ends-racial-preferences-in-admissions/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9572/scotus-rules-harvards-admissions-unlawful/) \n[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is suing Harvard, among other universities, for its race-conscious admissions policies, and has called for the abolition of racial preferences in college admissions. On January 24, 2022, the Supreme Court [granted certiorari](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/012422zor_m6io.pdf) to SFFA's suits against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which have been merged into a single case.\nWill the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2030, the US Supreme Court rules in [SFFA v. Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) that the consideration of race in university admissions is no longer permissible. If the Supreme Court remands the case to a lower court, this question resolves positively if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that racial preferences in admissions are unlawful, and litigation for this case ends before 2030. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:43.429Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Arooj Aftab win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-1", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Arooj Aftab has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 14602 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWill McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?\nThis question will resolve positively if McDonald's is the first of the following the feature a cultivated meat product on their menu in any location: Subway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, or Hardee's. This question will resolve negatively if none of these QSRs offer cultivated meat by the resolution date (December 31, 2026)\nA restaurant is said to feature a cultivated meat product on its menu, if, in at least one location that is open to the public, any member of the public is able to order the product, without requiring a reservation. \nThe product must be for sale, and free samples do not count. \"Pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution.\nAny product and any meat may count for positive resolution (nuggets, patties, hotdogs, and so forth). The relevant meat substitute must contain at least 25% cultivated meat by weight.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:12.505Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 82, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-22T23:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token or go public first?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-or-go-public-first", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea will launch a token or go public first. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via the official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\n“Going public” in this context can be defined as being publicly traded on a stock exchange, regardless of if they list via IPO, direct listing, or some other method. If they are not listed and publicly trading on a stock exchange, that will not satisfy market conditions.\n\nIf the launching a token criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Token”. If the go public criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Public”. If OpenSea does not release a token or go public by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, or does both at the exact same time, the market will resolve to 50/50.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Token", + "probability": "0.4821973272001442504956623274716692", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Public", + "probability": "0.5178026727998557495043376725283308", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "65", + "liquidity": "8125.61", + "tradevolume": "4595.54", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Token, Public" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Zambia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Zambia is Lungu, who has been in power for 6.2 years. Zambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 9 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0222465", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9777535, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Zambia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lungu", + "month_risk": "0.0008375", + "annual_risk": "0.0222465", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "9", + "leader_years": "6.166667", + "country_code": "ZMB", + "country_abb": "ZAM" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8505/20-embryo-screened-births-us-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html), the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282%2807%2901216-2/fulltext).\nBy 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 20% of babies born in the United States in any year before 2050 underwent embryo screening or PGD, according to credible media reports, statements by the US government, or public health agencies. Screening must have taken place before the embryo was implanted in the uterus.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:06.244Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2055-12-31T17:44:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -1220,6191 +44247,39 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:15.342Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:22.797Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 321, + "numforecasts": 322, "numforecasters": 62, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive, More than 2,000 but less that 2,500, Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but less than 3,500, Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive, More than 4,000" }, { - "title": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2228-will-the-spread-between-us-high-yield-corporate-bonds-and-us-treasuries-reach-or-exceed-5-00-before-1-october-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/an-uptick-in-corporate-defaults-is-unlikely), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-debt-investors-brace-for-tighter-financial-conditions-in-2022-11638217461)). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2)). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:20.057Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 231, - "numforecasters": 139, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-falls-below-10-before-2121/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\nTo some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\nCryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\nI think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.\nWill the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?\nThis question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:05:46.681Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 140, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Croatia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Croatia is Plenkovic, who has been in power for 4.4 years. Croatia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 20 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0031209", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9968791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Croatia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Plenkovic", - "month_risk": "0.000252", - "annual_risk": "0.0031209", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "20", - "leader_years": "4.416667", - "country_code": "HRV", - "country_abb": "CRO" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9453/ecb-raises-rates-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Federal Reserve has announced raising interest rates](https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/inflation-could-lead-fed-to-hike-rates-more-than-4-times/) for the Dollar in 2022 in response to rising inflation. However, it's corresponding institution the European Central Bank (ECB) has not. The yearly inflation was nearly as high in December 2021 in the EU with [5%](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi) as in the US with [7%](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi). The [ECB considers the inflation a temporary phenomenon](https://www.ft.com/content/8e2036b9-c02e-45e8-87d8-c9d3362415f1) and expects the inflation rate to fall below the target rate of 2% within months without raising interest rates for the Euro.\nThere is political pressure to keep the interest rates for the Euro low [because of the risk that some EU member default on their debt](https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/the-euro-is-facing-a-make-or-break-year). There is counter-pressure to keep the Euro and Dollar exchange rate stable for global trade though.\nWill the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?\nIf the ECB raises their \"Fixed rate tenders Fixed rate\" higher than 0.00 before 2023-01-01, the question resolves to yes. An announcement to do so in 2023 is not sufficient. The official source is [the ECB's website](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html). [FRED provides the same data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBMRRFR) with more interactive interface.\nThe ECB also publishes a \"deposit facility\" and a \"marginal lending facility\" rate in the short-term. These are not relevant for this question.\nIn case the ECB does not exist anymore and has not raised the interest rate, the question resolves to \"no\" since no raise occured. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:41:10.843Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On Friday, December 15, 2017, billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Barry Sherman and his wife Honey were found dead in their home in Toronto. [Sherman was one of the wealthiest Canadians](http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2017/12/15/canadian-pharmaceuticals-billionaire-and-wife-found-dead-in-toronto-mansion/#5734bf2b7fe2), and the Shermans gave considerable sums to [philanthropic causes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/barry-and-honey-sherman-canadian-pm-leads-mourning-of-billionaire-couple), as well as business ventures and [political campaigns](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). The Shermans were [found in their home, by an indoor pool, and police determined that they died of strangulation](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). Although police stated that the circumstances of the deaths \"[appear to be suspicious](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html),\" they also noted that there were no immediate suspects and initially investigated the case as [a potential homicide-suicide](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/16/murder-suicide-is-the-working-theory-for-police-investigating-death-of-billionaire-and-his-wife.html). Friends and family of the Shermans declared from the outset that this must have been a homicide, insisting that the Shermans wouldn't have taken their own (or one another's) lives. On Friday January 26, Toronto police [announced that they were treating the case as a double homicide](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/barry-and-honey-shermans-death-now-ruled-as-double-homicide/article37745567/), without revealing any additional evidence.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Barry and Honey were both murdered.", - "probability": 0.7651433409264672, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Barry and Honey committed suicide together.", - "probability": 0.13874736684819586, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself.", - "probability": 0.0961092922253371, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.625Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Barry and Honey were both murdered., Barry and Honey committed suicide together., Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself." - }, - { - "title": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8619/bimagrumab-approval-for-weight-loss-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a [phase 2 trial](http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33457) of its interesting drug [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks, people treated with bimagrumab lost one-fifth of their fat mass and increased their lean mass by 4%, along with notable improvements in blood glucose control. \n[Versanis Bio](https://www.versanisbio.com/) [secured funding](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210831005293/en/Versanis-Bio-Announces-70-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-Bimagrumab-for-the-Treatment-of-Obesity) in 2021 to develop bimagrumab for the treatment of obesity.\nWill bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve bimagrumab for the treatment of weight loss by 2029-01-01. This may include a successful development from Versanis Bio, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:57.697Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Indonesia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Indonesia is Joko Widodo, who has been in power for 6.4 years. Indonesia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0031832", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9968168, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Indonesia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Joko Widodo", - "month_risk": "0.0002644", - "annual_risk": "0.0031832", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "22", - "leader_years": "6.416667", - "country_code": "IDN", - "country_abb": "INS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\nSeveral potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power. \n[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks.\nWill there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the probability from 0 to 1 that at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2024.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n--- \na >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n--- \na non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \nPositive resolution requires a HEMP attack to be reported by at least three major media outlets within 30 days of the attack and before January 1st, 2024.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:12:37.239Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:51:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:51:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:49.277Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 139, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Malaysia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Malaysia is Muhyiddin Yassin, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Malaysia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.009486", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.990514, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Malaysia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Muhyiddin Yassin", - "month_risk": "0.0024525", - "annual_risk": "0.009486", - "risk_change_percent": "0.05", - "regime_years": "3", - "leader_years": "1", - "country_code": "MYS", - "country_abb": "MAL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Val Demings", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stephanie Murphy", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alan Grayson", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:43.251Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 18075 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Val Demings, Stephanie Murphy, Alan Grayson" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.\nQuestion: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?\nResolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:32:00.921Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 146, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T11:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8404/25-of-nyt-best-sellers-written-by-ai-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nBy 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?\nThis question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI. For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Fiction_Best_Sellers_of_2020). If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\nTo qualify as being written by AI, authorship of the book must be credited to an AI or more than 75% of the content must be created by AI, according to publisher's statements or credible media reports.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:42.281Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:31:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:31:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the WV-02 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7578/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-WV-02-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 WV-02 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Alex Mooney", - "probability": 0.625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David McKinley", - "probability": 0.375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:51.659Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 13373 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Alex Mooney, David McKinley" - }, - { - "title": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8991/2022-warmer-than-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \n---[Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/) \n8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in [the top 10 warmest years on record](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013) according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) caused by humans.\n[NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year.\nWill 2022 be warmer than 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if global surface temperatures in 2022 are warmer than in 2021, according to [NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event of a statistical tie, another credible source such as [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp) may be used.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:23:21.153Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 169, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stacey Abrams", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sherrod Brown", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:47.540Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 4662173 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Hillary Clinton, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Stacey Abrams, Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown" - }, - { - "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[New START] ([https://www.state.gov/new-start/](https://www.state.gov/new-start/)) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. We ask if the New START treaty will be renewed again for at least an additional year - that is, whether it will be extended until at least 5 February 2027.\nWill the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following conditions occur:\n1-- \nThere are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least 5 February 2027. \n2-- \nThere are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least 5 February 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.\nIt is not necessary that the renewed or replacement treaty has very similar terms. But note that the second condition would not be met if one or two of the three relevant groups (US officials, Russian officials, or other credible sources) do not describe the treaty as a successor to New START. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:49.652Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:03.202Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 332, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who receives a majority of the votes of the appointed presidential electors when the Electoral College votes are cast in the 2024 United States presidential election.\nIn the event that no person receives such a majority, all contracts shall resolve to No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:50.099Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 768640 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg" - }, - { - "title": "Will Freedom by Jon Batiste win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-2", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Freedom by Jon Batiste has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 8046 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:10.695Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 182, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:50:12.355Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 160, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On April 4, 2017, Khan Sheikhoun, Syria came under attack. There were reports of dozens dead and hundreds injured, with those affected displaying signs of exposure to sarin.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack.", - "probability": 0.8253215707870933, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack.", - "probability": 0.16344300992585953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents.", - "probability": 0.011235419287047115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack., The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack., A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents." - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:08.040Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 27938 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\nFlight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.\n![image] (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg/440px-MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg.png)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.", - "probability": 0.9303855144518759, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.", - "probability": 0.040451544106603274, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.", - "probability": 0.021068512555522584, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.", - "probability": 0.004577391856729619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).", - "probability": 0.00028091350074030126, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.", - "probability": 0.003236123528528264, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.625Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide., The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide., Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours., Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane., Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down)., The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane." - }, - { - "title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/cavendish-bananas-collapse-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:11.108Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:09:47.189Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 217, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will early elections in the U.K. be called by July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7640/Will-early-elections-in-the-UK-be-called-by-July-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 13, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, the Parliament of the United Kingdom is dissolved and an early parliamentary general election is triggered. Such election need not be scheduled to take place, nor actually take place, by the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:39.178Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 18379 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Cameroon in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Cameroon is Biya, who has been in power for 38.3 years. Cameroon has a personal regime type which has lasted for 38 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0116277", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9883723, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Cameroon", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Biya", - "month_risk": "0.0005819", - "annual_risk": "0.0116277", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "38", - "leader_years": "38.33333", - "country_code": "CMR", - "country_abb": "CAO" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:03:01.133Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 39, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 31 December 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9582/will-us-troops-move-into-ukraine-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 25 January 2022, US President Joe Biden [said](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis/biden-warns-putin-with-sanctions-as-west-steps-up-ukraine-defenses-idUKKBN2K00GT), \"There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine.\" As of January 24, 2022, [TIME reported](https://time.com/6141675/us-troops-alert-ukraine/) that 200 US troops were in the country, as members of the Florida National Guard are training Ukrainian forces. According to TIME's report:\nPentagon spokesman John Kirby said up to 8,500 U.S. service members were put on heightened alert for deployment to bolster NATO allies’ eastern defenses should Russia invade. The forces would not be sent to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, nor take part in any combat roles, Kirby said, but rather serve as reinforcements in places like Poland or Romania to reassure U.S. allies and deter Russian aggression.\nBefore December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?\nThis question will resolve positively if American troops have been moved into Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"moving into Ukraine\" requires a total of at least 10,000 US troops, wearing US military insignia and under the American banner, being in the territory of Ukraine at a given moment.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:46:46.526Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jody Hice", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brad Raffensperger", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Belle Isle", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:20.587Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 28078 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a \"by 2023\" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/).\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions against Iran to the extent previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2024-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2024-01-01; a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:54.295Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:24.800Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 248, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_%28United_States%29) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:47.975Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 159, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:05.871Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be more than 217 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-217-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 217,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2004275351883870937588415353240859", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7995724648116129062411584646759141", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "97", - "liquidity": "978.32", - "tradevolume": "4050.53", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:17:50.892Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 287, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Czech Republic in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Czech Republic is Andrej Babis, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Czech Republic has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0031552", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9968448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Czech Republic", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Andrej Babis", - "month_risk": "0.0002207", - "annual_risk": "0.0031552", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "3.25", - "country_code": "CZE", - "country_abb": "CZR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:39.115Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 120, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7860/pakistan-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now).\nWill Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Pakistani government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:34.982Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 59, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden does get a new nominee on SCOTUS in 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A268", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will zkSync have a token by May 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zksync-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if zkSync or Matter Labs will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If zkSync or Matter Labs have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4861873177375178670463051793862935", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5138126822624821329536948206137065", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.334Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "30", - "liquidity": "366.60", - "tradevolume": "1415.80", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by May 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-may-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, May 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1187679319703870536761371680350707", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8812320680296129463238628319649293", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "61", - "liquidity": "1236.81", - "tradevolume": "3470.17", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Curve suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-curve-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Curve suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Curve is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07380400275428077126373856665976374", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9261959972457192287362614333402363", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "18", - "liquidity": "11052.15", - "tradevolume": "15491.44", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be Russia's annual rate of inflation in September 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2219-what-will-be-russia-s-annual-inflation-rate-in-september-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As in many other countries, inflation has been on the rise in Russia in 2021 ([Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/11/19/rising-inflation-gives-boost-to-russias-discount-retailers-a75592), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-24/faster-russia-inflation-adds-to-case-for-big-hike-as-ruble-drops)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data for September 2021 when monthly IMF data for September 2022 are first available, expected by November 2022 ([IMF](https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61015892)). On the page, change \"Country\" on the upper left of the page to \"Russian Federation,\" then see \"Consumer Price Index, All items.\" For August 2021 (2021M08), the annual rate of inflation was 6.69617%, calculated by dividing the index figure for August 2021 (2021M08) by the index figure for August 2020 (2020M08) and subtracting 1.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 3.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 9.0%", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:37.830Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 136, - "numforecasters": 63, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive, Higher than 9.0%" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7685/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Charlie Crist", - "probability": 0.6633663366336634, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nikki Fried", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Annette Taddeo", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:11.157Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 7380 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Annette Taddeo" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in North Korea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of North Korea is Kim Jong Un, who has been in power for 9.3 years. North Korea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 72 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.005169", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.994831, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "North Korea", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Kim Jong Un", - "month_risk": "0.000483", - "annual_risk": "0.005169", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "72", - "leader_years": "9.25", - "country_code": "PRK", - "country_abb": "PRK" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2127-what-will-be-the-us-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Office vacancy rates increased sharply during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([Flatland KC](https://www.flatlandkc.org/news-issues/future-of-work-the-future-of-workplaces/), [NY Business Journal](https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2021/09/07/columbia-property-trust-acquired.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-commercial-real-estate)). The outcome will be determined using the US office vacancy rate as reported in the Colliers Q4 2022 Office Market Outlook report, expected in February 2023 ([Colliers](https://www.colliers.com/en/countries/united-states/commercial-real-estate-research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 11.4%; the rate for Q2 2021, at question launch, was 14.7% ([Colliers - Q4 2019](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/2019-q4-us-office-market-outlook-report), [Colliers - Q2 2021](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/office-market-outlook-q2-2021)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 12.5%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 17.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:17.929Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 112, - "numforecasters": 39, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive, Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%, Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive, Higher than 17.0%" - }, - { - "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:49.143Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 635, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2140-in-new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-new-york-state-s-denial-of-applications-for-concealed-carry-licenses-for-self-defense-violated-the-second-amendment", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a \"proper cause\" for obtaining the license ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843)). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen/)). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/ny-state-rifle-pistol-assn-v-beach), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/164031/20201217110211298_2020-12-17%20NRA-Corlett%20Cert%20Petition%20FINAL.pdf)). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 ([Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalNovember2021.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:55.471Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, - "numforecasters": 47, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8989/1-nations-with-10-covid-vaccine-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9031/low-income-countries-vaccinated-by-eoy-2022/) \nAs the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) is spreading globally, [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv).\n\"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” [said Lawrence Gostin](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed and global vaccine distribution, [set an initial target](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.\n\"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries,\" said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, [estimated in November 2021](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters) that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.\nWill any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if on December 31, 2022, any nation reports that less than 10% of their population has recieved at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#what-share-of-the-population-has-received-at-least-one-dose-of-the-covid-19-vaccine). Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.\nResolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:23:15.947Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:57.703Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 13749 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Serbia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Serbia is Ana Brnabic, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Serbia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 20 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0048933", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9951067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Serbia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ana Brnabic", - "month_risk": "0.0004075", - "annual_risk": "0.0048933", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "20", - "leader_years": "3.75", - "country_code": "SRB", - "country_abb": "YUG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:54:34.116Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 167, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:40:50.483Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 297, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "DJT wins 2024 POTUS election", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A225", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "China and Japan were last at war during World War II.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Japanese and Chinese forces.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:51.980Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. \nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the US.\nWill there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-01. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:36.408Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Tuvalu in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Tuvalu is Natano, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Tuvalu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0047852", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9952148, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Tuvalu", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Natano", - "month_risk": "0.0014827", - "annual_risk": "0.0047852", - "risk_change_percent": "0.12", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "1.5", - "country_code": "TUV", - "country_abb": "TUV" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On the 18-Apr-2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n---[Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691) \n---[Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114) \n---[Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html) \nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\nWill there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n---Arsenal FC \n---Chelsea FC \n---Liverpool FC \n---Manchester City FC \n---Manchester United FC \n---Tottenham Hotspur FC \n---Inter Milan \n---Juventus FC \n---AC Milan \n---Atlético Madrid \n---FC Barcelona \n---Real Madrid CF \n---Bayern Munich \n---Borussia Dortmund \n---Bayer Leverkusen \n---Schalke 04 \n---PSG \n---Lyon \n---Ajax \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:02:44.649Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\nWill there be a China-India war by 2035?\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:43.853Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the CPTPP Commission commence the accession process for **China to join the CPTPP** by January 4, 2023?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPTPP-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the CPTPP Commission issues a statement that indicates that the accession process for the People's Republic of China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership has been formally commenced and that a formal accession working group has been or will be established, then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see CPTPP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, as well as examples of past statements.. The resolution source is: English language versions of statements by the CPTPP Commission. The best repository of CPTPP Commission statements is available from the Japanese government. To find English-language versions on the website, go to the link above, click on a given year (e.g. \"2021 年\") then click on \"英文\", which means \"English\" in Japanese. These instructions are provided for convenience only. Please see CPTPP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 4, - "yes_ask": 6, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 4206 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Belarus in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Belarus is Lukashenko, who has been in power for 26.7 years. Belarus has a personal regime type which has lasted for 27 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0057279", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9942721, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Belarus", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lukashenko", - "month_risk": "0.0003633", - "annual_risk": "0.0057279", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "27", - "leader_years": "26.66667", - "country_code": "BLR", - "country_abb": "BLR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-2024", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:07.099Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 151169 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:16:46.934Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 311, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the GA-07 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7611/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-GA-07-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Georgia's Seventh Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lucy McBath", - "probability": 0.7307692307692307, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carolyn Bourdeaux", - "probability": 0.2692307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:51.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 17589 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucy McBath, Carolyn Bourdeaux" - }, - { - "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:07.137Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 89, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8101/lapid-pm-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Yair Lapid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yair_Lapid) is Israel's Foreign Minister. He formed the [current government of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_government_of_Israel) but allowed Naftali Bennett to be Prime Minister first. Lapid is scheduled to become Prime Minister in 2023 in a rotation agreement. The government may collapse before that date. Lapid's liberal, secular, Zionist, and pro two-state solution [Yesh Atid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid) party has performed [well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election) in Israeli opinion polls, and so Lapid could become Prime Minister even if the government collapses before the rotation agreement takes effect.\nWill Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel before January 1, 2030 as reported by reliable media outlets.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:38:47.719Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 55, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected governor of Arizona in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2223-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-arizona-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Republican Party candidate", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:29.810Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "numforecasters": 56, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else" - }, - { - "title": "By April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8845/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-eu/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The European Union is seen by many as the Singapore´s possible successor.\n[As Techspoon](https://thespoon.tech/europe-the-u-s-israel-which-country-might-be-next-to-approve-cultured-meat/) states:\n\"The European Commission has a clearly defined process for bringing cultured meat to market that is known as [Novel Food authorization](https://ec.europa.eu/food/safety/novel_food/authorisations_en). For example, Mosa Meat, based in the Netherlands, has said [it is focusing on Singapore and Europe](https://agfundernews.com/mosa-meat-ceo-maarten-bosch-on-choosing-non-gmo-partnering-for-expansion-and-choosing-beef.html) for its first launches, specifically citing Europe’s Novel Food authorizations as a reason. Europe is also home to many other cultured meat companies, including Blue Biosciences, Mirai, and CellulaREvolution.\" \nOn the other hand, the European approval process is very complicated. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)’s risk assessment process alone takes nine months. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Union approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded. An approval at the EU level is necessary for positive resolution, approval at individual state level is not sufficient, even if all the EU members individually issued such approvals.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:14:41.584Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Venezuela in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Venezuela is Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power for 8.0 years. Venezuela has a personal regime type which has lasted for 15 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0280701", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9719299, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Venezuela", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nicolas Maduro", - "month_risk": "0.003623", - "annual_risk": "0.0280701", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "15", - "leader_years": "8", - "country_code": "VEN", - "country_abb": "VEN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2250-before-1-december-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Tensions between the US and Iran remain high ([NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/tensions-rising-us-iran-new-years-seen-potential-flashpoint-rcna9347), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/iran-nuclear-talks-deadlock-risks-dangerous-vacuum)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:30.882Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 128, - "numforecasters": 112, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).\nIf there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:05:47.465Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5436893203883496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45631067961165045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:46.691Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 137759 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\nedited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:55:34.405Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 127, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:06.889Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:53:15.210Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T20:54:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:46.357Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 177, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:34.985Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 226, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Glass Animals win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-5", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Glass Animals has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 15834 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be on Feb. 4?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7723/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Feb-4", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below. The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled \"Polling Data\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html (\"the Settlement Source\"), at the row labeled as as \"RCP Average.\" \nAny number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled \"RCP Average\" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/4/2022 11:00:00 AM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "39.7% or lower", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "39.8% to 40.0%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "40.1% to 40.3%", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "40.4% to 40.6%", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "40.7% to 40.9%", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.0% to 41.2%", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.3% to 41.5%", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.6% to 41.8%", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.9% or higher", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:14.595Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 106189 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "39.7% or lower, 39.8% to 40.0%, 40.1% to 40.3%, 40.4% to 40.6%, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% or higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7629/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-on-the-2024-Democratic-ticket", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:12.272Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 53660 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by July 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3979545763085703045809620525035995", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6020454236914296954190379474964005", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "41", - "liquidity": "61246.96", - "tradevolume": "6918.44", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Suriname in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Suriname is Santokhi, who has been in power for 0.7 years. Suriname has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0069158", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9930842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Suriname", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Santokhi", - "month_risk": "0.0005861", - "annual_risk": "0.0069158", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "29", - "leader_years": "0.6666667", - "country_code": "SUR", - "country_abb": "SUR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:08:14.317Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 142, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:47:37.036Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 214, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel hold a national election for Knesset in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7693/Will-Israel-hold-a-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 4:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:34.784Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 6291 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:24.151Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 69, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the US Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:25:29.311Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 703, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-1", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Ketanji Brown Jackson is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 59, - "yes_ask": 61, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 6290 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:18.686Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 135, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Niger in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Niger is Issoufou, who has been in power for 9.9 years. Niger has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0402544", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9597456, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Niger", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Issoufou", - "month_risk": "0.0054292", - "annual_risk": "0.0402544", - "risk_change_percent": "0.04", - "regime_years": "10", - "leader_years": "9.916667", - "country_code": "NER", - "country_abb": "NIR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:35:05.675Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T20:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-02T02:14:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Tunisia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Tunisia is Saied, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Tunisia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 6 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.007303", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.992697, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Tunisia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Saied", - "month_risk": "0.0005524", - "annual_risk": "0.007303", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", - "regime_years": "6", - "leader_years": "1.416667", - "country_code": "TUN", - "country_abb": "TUN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9458/eliciting-latent-knowledge-50k-prize-awarded/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/), posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\nRoughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \nELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\nTo win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\nWe’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\nWe’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k).\nWill an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?\nThis resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the [relevant LessWrong post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:41:22.353Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T15:29:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:43:04.754Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:03:06.346Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 297, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Azerbaijan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Azerbaijan is Ilhma Aliyev, who has been in power for 17.4 years. Azerbaijan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0047507", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9952493, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Azerbaijan", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ilhma Aliyev", - "month_risk": "0.0004182", - "annual_risk": "0.0047507", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "17.41667", - "country_code": "AZE", - "country_abb": "AZE" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $5 billion in volume in January 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-5-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $5,000,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $5.0b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0001027449049903288289923265000630622", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9998972550950096711710076734999369", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "275", - "liquidity": "49.83", - "tradevolume": "15326.21", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will SCOTUS strike down Mississippi ban on pre-viability abortions in Dobbs?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7504/Will-SCOTUS-strike-down-Mississippi-ban-on-pre-viability-abortions-in-Dobbs", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if the Supreme Court, in a ruling that decides the outcome of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, issues an opinion subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, with the effect of striking down Mississippi's ban on pre-viability abortions.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:09.159Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 125168 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:42:11.925Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 361, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8544/prediction-of-our-community-on-nuclear-attack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/). If that does happen, how predictable will it be in the days beforehand? To what extent will it be a bolt from the blue?\nIf there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for at least a day during the week before the detonation?\nThis question conditions on [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/) resolving positively; that is, this question resolves ambiguously unless that other one resolves positively. \nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThat other question resolves positively, and\n2-- \nFor a full 24 hour period sometime in the 168 hours (i.e., 7 times 24) before the first detonation that resolves that other question positively, the Community Prediction on that other question is greater than 20%\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:59:09.879Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:30:18.773Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-warren-buffett-or-sergey-brin", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Warren Buffett", - "probability": "0.4026658644508566201302406091797498", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sergey Brin", - "probability": "0.5973341355491433798697593908202502", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "31", - "liquidity": "3300.00", - "tradevolume": "1593.74", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Warren Buffett, Sergey Brin" - }, - { - "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9523/peloton-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_%28exercise_equipment_company%29) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization of nearly $50 billion.](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap)\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 84%, and it has been [dropped from the Nasdaq-100](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peloton-stock-price-decline-kicked-out-nasdaq-100-index-2022-1). In January 2022, it was reported that the company [is working with consulting firm McKinsey & Co to review its cost structure and may cut some jobs.](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/peloton-reviews-cost-structure-with-mckinsey-may-cut-jobs-cnbc-2022-01-18/)\nFurther, on January 20, 2022, it was reported that Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products as consumer demand wanes and the company looks to control costs, according to internal documents [obtained by CNBC.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)\nWill Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\nOnly petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:44:30.316Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "DJT wins 2024 RNOM", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A224", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2141-before-1-january-2023-will-the-taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-officially-change-its-name-to-include-the-word-taiwan", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to \"Taiwan Representative Office\" ([Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States](https://www.roc-taiwan.org/us_en/index.html), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-13/China-opposes-U-S-pondering-of-Taiwan-office-name-change--13wwMHtiKXu/index.html), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-letting-taiwan-change-name-its-office-united-states-mistake)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:53.917Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 91, - "numforecasters": 44, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\nWill at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:02:18.232Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 210, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:26:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:40:39.276Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 79, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:16:03.586Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 234, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:18:38.763Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by April 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7653/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-April-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 21, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:04.671Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 58070 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:44.068Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 228, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On December 20, 2015, Steve Harvey incorrectly announced Miss Colombia as the winner at the Miss Universe pageant before announcing the actual winner, Miss Philippines. While some believed this was an honest mistake, others thought it was a scripted move to generate buzz for the floundering pageant industry. Meanwhile, the internet responded with multiple [memes of Steve Harvey making mistakes](http://abc7ny.com/entertainment/the-funniest-reactions-to-steve-harvey-announcing-the-wrong-miss-universe-winner/1130613/); Steve Harvey himself even released a [meme poking fun at the mix-up](https://twitter.com/IAmSteveHarvey/status/680446179209916421/photo/1) and starred in a related [T-Mobile Superbowl ad](https://youtu.be/eI8YZdejPKg).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.", - "probability": 0.9620014460508962, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.", - "probability": 0.033854158022774763, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.", - "probability": 0.00414439592632885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge.", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake., The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge., The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together., Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge." - }, - { - "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:47.463Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 240, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:42:33.692Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 64, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.\nWill there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs between the time this question is posted and December 31, 2023:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:06:24.403Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 254, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-04T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge-completed-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?\nPositive resolution requires an announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished by 2050-01-01.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:08:36.681Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 340, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:45:08Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2159-will-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-be-reelected-for-georgia-s-14th-congressional-district-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Rep. Greene was elected to her first term in 2020 and is expected to face a tough reelection campaign in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/575375-greene-challenger-raises-13m-in-latest-quarter), [Rome News-Tribune](https://www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/news/local/gop-challenger-files-to-face-marjorie-taylor-greene-in-primary/article_2f184f66-1582-11ec-a3ea-076b5bfebf93.html)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022). If the outcome is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If the outcome is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:22.847Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 187, - "numforecasters": 76, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage** rate be above 3.55%?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FRM-028", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate for the week ending February 03, 2022 is above 3.55%, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see FRM in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe contract will expire at the sooner of the first 10:05 AM following the release of the data for February 03, 2022, or February 10, 2022. The Last Trading Time will always be 9:55 AM on February 03, 2022. The resolution source is: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate reported by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (“PMMS”). (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 75, - "yes_ask": 78, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 6038 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.\nWill Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:01:14.328Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 101, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-01T23:56:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.\nIf no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:20:44.789Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:43:10.079Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.6386554621848739, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.11764705882352941, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.08403361344537814, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Éric Zemmour", - "probability": 0.050420168067226885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nathalie Arthaud", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Philippe Poutou", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Fabien Roussel", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon ", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "François Baroin", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "N. Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "François Asselineau", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Christiane Taubira", - "probability": 0.008403361344537815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:26.663Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 585638 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Xavier Bertrand, Arnaud Montebourg, Jean-Luc Mélenchon , Michel Barnier, François Baroin, N. Dupont-Aignan, François Asselineau, Christiane Taubira" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win WI 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A157", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Leondra Kruger become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-3", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Leondra Kruger is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if Leondra Kruger is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 14, - "yes_ask": 16, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 17232 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n2000: 6th 2004: 7th 2008: 10th 2012: 7th 2016: 7th 2020: 8th \nWill France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:23:08.637Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many seats will the Socialist Party win in the 2022 Portuguese election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7587/How-many-seats-will-the-Socialist-Party-win-in-the-2022-Portuguese-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by Partido Socialista, also known as the Socialist Party, in the next election to the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "93 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "94 to 97", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "98 to 101", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "102 to 105", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "106 to 109", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "110 to 113", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "114 to 117", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "118 to 121", - "probability": 0.9074074074074073, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "122 to 125", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "126 or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:11.809Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 82090 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "93 or fewer, 94 to 97, 98 to 101, 102 to 105, 106 to 109, 110 to 113, 114 to 117, 118 to 121, 122 to 125, 126 or more" - }, - { - "title": "By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/25-year-lifespan-increase-discovery-by-2067/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nBy 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:03:55.102Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Sanofi comercialize a Covid-19 vaccine under its brand in 2021?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": " ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.411764705882353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5882352941176471, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.972Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.\nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state that the US has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that the US would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the US President; Secretary of Defense; Secretary of State; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; or the head of one of the US's armed services. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:59:25.538Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 52, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 08/03/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act. \nThe legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 08/03/2021 6:33 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: As used in the Rules, Class One means Schedule I.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:30.032Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 195691 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5490196078431373, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.45098039215686275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:48.079Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 23810 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Philippines in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Philippines is Rodrigo Duterte, who has been in power for 4.8 years. Philippines has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 35 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0062266", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9937734, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Philippines", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Rodrigo Duterte", - "month_risk": "0.0016222", - "annual_risk": "0.0062266", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "35", - "leader_years": "4.75", - "country_code": "PHL", - "country_abb": "PHI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Sour by Olivia Rodrgio win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-8", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Sour by Olivia Rodrigo has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 41874 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will the Senate next confirm as Federal Reserve vice chair of Supervision?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7564/Who-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Federal-Reserve-vice-chair-of-Supervision", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on October 27, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", - "probability": 0.8285714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Raphael Bostic", - "probability": 0.047619047619047616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lael Brainard", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kathryn Judge", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "William Spriggs", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lisa Cook", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Randal Quarles", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roger Ferguson", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Seth Carpenter", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Hsu", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cecilia Rouse", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Cordray", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nellie Liang", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Karen Dynan", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valerie Wilson", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:26.676Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 518468 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, Lael Brainard, Kathryn Judge, William Spriggs, Lisa Cook, Randal Quarles, Roger Ferguson, Seth Carpenter, Michael Hsu, Cecilia Rouse, Richard Cordray, Nellie Liang, Karen Dynan, Valerie Wilson" - }, - { - "title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:50:28.279Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 152, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/", + "title": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8977/roe-v-wade-overturned-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/) \nAbortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that [55-65% of Americans fall in the middle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/), favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 [more Americans support Roe v Wade](https://news.gallup.com/poll/350804/americans-opposed-overturning-roe-wade.aspx) than wish to overturn it.\nIn October 2021, [Amy Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade). In Texas, [a law effectively banning abortions](https://web.archive.org/web/20211001005809/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/health/texas-abortion-law-facts.html) occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was [dismissed on procedural grounds](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-is-unprecedented-but-the-supreme-court-isnt-treating-it-that-way/). The court also heard arguments in [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under Casey, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022.\nWill the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if, anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the [Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point [before the date of fetal viability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey). This decision may be rendered in [Dobbs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), a case concerning [the Texas Heartbeat Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act), or in another case.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as revocation of medical or professional licenses, or eg. allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:11:42.378Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:19:42.895Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be prime minister of the Czech Republic on July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7471/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-the-Czech-Republic-on-July-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Petr Fiala", - "probability": 0.9514563106796116, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ivan Bartoš", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tomio Okamura", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vojtěch Filip", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jan Hamáček", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:55.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 21579 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Petr Fiala, Andrej Babiš, Ivan Bartoš, Tomio Okamura, Vojtěch Filip, Jan Hamáček" - }, - { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:42:54.433Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8138/2500-nuclear-weapons-ready-at-short-notice/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice would probably increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict occurring in the first place. Finally, changes in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.\nWill more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 2,500. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This excludes weapons that are (a) deployed but not on high alert, (b) in reserve/nondeployed, or (c) retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:38.816Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:20:46.275Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 211, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:27:20.480Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 542, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\nWe acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\nThis improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).\nWill a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?\nThis question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nExtra junk information, such as a researcher adding 999 petabytes of zeros at the end of their file (as unlikely as this may be), cannot count towards resolution, and admins will use their discretion in this regard. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:08:58.211Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:14.222Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1139, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 ([BLS - PPI](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/archived-producer-price-index-detailed-report-information.htm)). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% ([BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-may-2021.pdf), see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 1.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.68, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:45.281Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 206, - "numforecasters": 43, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%" - }, - { - "title": "What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "Donald Trump's hair is a mystery; it has been compared to[ cotton candy](http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/09/politics/jeb-bush-stephen-colbert-late-show-extras/) (by Jeb Bush and Stephen Colbert),[ soft serve ice cream](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trumps-hair-soft-serve-dairy/story?id=33818262) at Dairy Queen (by Hillary Clinton on Saturday Night Live), a[ rare caterpillar](http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-caterpillar-2016-9), and[ other objects](http://www.boredpanda.com/donald-trump-hair-look-alikes/). While[ The Donald](http://www.amazon.com/TrumpNation-The-Art-Being-Donald/dp/1422366189) claims that he has a full head of natural hair, others doubt his story, suggesting that he has an involved comb over covering his baldness, that he wears a toupee, or that he has undergone surgery to reconstruct his hairline.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery.", - "probability": 0.6014630328803353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump has hair plug transplants.", - "probability": 0.311266661641781, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump wears a toupee.", - "probability": 0.05523460705178658, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over).", - "probability": 0.030328877509767715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head.", - "probability": 0.0013827991564558896, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International).", - "probability": 0.00032402175987351645, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery., Donald Trump has hair plug transplants., Donald Trump wears a toupee., Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over)., Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head., Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International)." - }, - { - "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?\nThis resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.\nDonations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.\nIf Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted. \nIf he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.\nIf some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:45.461Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 50, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2022, according to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2139-how-many-total-international-overnight-guests-will-visit-dubai-in-2022-according-to-the-dubai-department-of-tourism-and-commerce-marketing", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing ([Dubai Tourism](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/)). For example, 5.51 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai in 2020, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 ([Dubai Tourism - 2020 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-december-2020), [Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/annual-visitor-report-2019)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 10.0 million", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 22.5 million", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:57.077Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive, More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million, Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive, More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million, Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive, More than 22.5 million" - }, - { - "title": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n--- \n[WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n--- \n[The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)\nWill Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?\nA clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:\n---A bombing attack on the dam \n---Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam \nSuccess of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:25:58.058Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-08-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7966/israel-hezbollah-war-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Israel and Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization and Lebanese militia, [fought a war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) in 2006. [Several](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/lebanon-matti-friedman) [sources](https://breakingdefense.com/2021/08/are-israel-and-lebanon-heading-for-another-war/) have warned of another war or potential conflict. The Syrian Civil War has seen Hezbollah [increase its presence in Syria](https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-conflict-hezbollah-syria). Israel [has struck](https://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israel-strikes-Syrian-weapons-en-route-to-Hezbollah) Hezbollah weapons.\nWill there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2030:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\nPositive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2029. The threshold 100 at the timescale involved is such that this is unlikely. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:33:52.367Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "William McSwain", - "probability": 0.3125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dave White", - "probability": 0.234375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lou Barletta", - "probability": 0.1875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Mastriano", - "probability": 0.1171875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jake Corman", - "probability": 0.046875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Gale", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlie Gerow", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jason Monn", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jason Richey", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nche Zama", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Martin", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Kelly", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Laughlin", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Meuser", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ryan Aument", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Cawley", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Fitzpatrick", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.0078125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:17.018Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 72340 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "William McSwain, Dave White, Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, Jake Corman, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama, Scott Martin, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Dan Meuser, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr." - }, - { - "title": "Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-income-taxes-rise-for-the-highest-tax-bracket-in-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if a bill that has the effect of raising the top bracket federal personal income tax rate above 37.0% becomes law before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, other provisions that may affect the amount of personal tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate are not considered in this market. \n\nNote also, the increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of personal income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not considered in this market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4043339175290104748222681971057299", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5956660824709895251777318028942701", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "92", - "liquidity": "1500.00", - "tradevolume": "4040.08", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:18.635Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 296, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\". This question asks if there will be conflict causing 100 deaths between the two nations by the end of 2025.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2026:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:26:19.118Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 167, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:33.108Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 604, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-10-23T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the owners of the MLB approve an **Oakland Athletics move to a new city** by March 15, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MLBOAK-002", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the owners of existing MLB franchises have approved the relocation of the MLB franchise currently known as the Oakland Athletics to a new city by March 15, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else resolves to No. Please see MLBOAK in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including the definition of a new city. \n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event. . The resolution source is: Notices on the website of Major League Baseball. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 12, - "yes_ask": 15, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 10142 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:21.558Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 310, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021 will investigators in the US Congress get access to any of Donald Trump's tax returns?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": " ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Mike Pence", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A182", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9079/democrats-in-house-of-representatives-in-2022/)\nIn 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:28:53.856Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 476, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9029/2022-winter-olympics-completed-as-scheduled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics to 2021, marking the first time since 1992 in which the Winter and Summer Olympics would be held less than six months apart from each other.\nThe 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to take place from 4 to 20 February 2022 and are scheduled to include a record 109 events.\nWill the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays?\nThis question resolves positively if all of:\n1-- \nthe Opening Ceremony takes place on February 4th, 2022\n2-- \nthe Closing Ceremony takes place on February 20th, 2022\n3-- \nat least 95% of all 109 events are completed in between these two events\nOtherwise it resolves negatively.\nAn \"event\" is considered complete if medals are awarded. Delays of individual events do not cause a negative resolution as long as all events are completed before the Closing Ceremony. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:25:02.307Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 201, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.\nWill Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:10:18.199Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Phantom airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-phantom-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Phantom will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1741546688205209351338519837591099", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8258453311794790648661480162408901", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "61", - "liquidity": "500.46", - "tradevolume": "6746.16", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:08:09.068Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. President remain the sole authority to authorize the use of Nuclear weapons by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8670/us-pres-exclusive-authority-on-nukes-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a [Nuclear Risk tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). Most of these questions focus on stockpiles, detonation and other outcomes. To answer these questions with fidelity, predictors must make assumptions concerning the processes and conditions in which a nuclear weapon would be launched.\nAn excerpt from a [Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf) outlines the command and control of nuclear forces in the United States:\nThe U.S. President has sole authority to authorize the use of U.S. nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from his military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. But, as General John Hyten, then the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), noted, his job is to give advice, while the authority to order a launch lies with the President.\nWill the U.S. President remain the sole authority to authorize the use of Nuclear weapons by 2030?\nThis question will resolve negatively if by 2030-01-01, a single or set of American laws, amendments, or other legal mechanisms adds additional required authorizing parties to the final decision to use nuclear force and/or if the president is no longer an authority in the process. This question will resolve positively if the acting U.S. president remains the sole authority from 2021-11-01 to 2030-01-01.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:07:06.403Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:51:49.410Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 150, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/kamala-harris-wins-2024-us-presidency/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:21:34.857Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 548, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_%28eurozone%29)\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.\nWill the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?\nResolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded. \nThe question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:58:14.984Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in South Korea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of South Korea is Moon Jae-in, who has been in power for 3.8 years. South Korea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 34 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0021282", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9978718, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "South Korea", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Moon Jae-in", - "month_risk": "0.0001784", - "annual_risk": "0.0021282", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "34", - "leader_years": "3.833333", - "country_code": "KOR", - "country_abb": "ROK" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:30:50.304Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 868, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2252-will-major-league-baseball-s-mlb-s-opening-day-occur-on-31-march-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33111294/mlb-players-association-make-counteroffer-league-monday-meeting), [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-why-these-dates-should-serve-as-deadlines-for-full-spring-training-regular-opening-day-and-more/), [MLBPA](https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf)). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 ([MLB](https://www.mlb.com/schedule/2022-03-31)). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:26.635Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 38, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:02:34.684Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:19.661Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 372, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2249-before-1-january-2023-will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-begin-delivering-natural-gas-to-germany", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Amid high tensions between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine and other matters, gas giant Gazprom is awaiting regulatory approval to begin delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline ([Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nord-stream-filled-gas/31632027.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-consequence-nord-stream-two-russia-attack-ukraine/), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/121621-no-decision-on-certifying-nord-stream-2-operator-in-first-half-of-2022-regulator)). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:32.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 164, - "numforecasters": 106, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Peaches by Justin Bieber win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-4", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Peaches by Justin Bieber has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 9464 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:16.395Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1193, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).\nIf Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:24.987Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 134, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-35 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7676/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-35-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirty-Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Greg Casar", - "probability": 0.8725490196078431, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Viagran", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eddie Rodriguez", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carla-Joy Sisco", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:45.837Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 6642 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Casar, Rebecca Viagran, Eddie Rodriguez, Carla-Joy Sisco" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Equatorial Guinea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Equatorial Guinea is Nguema Mbasogo, who has been in power for 41.6 years. Equatorial Guinea has a personal regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0166975", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9833025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Equatorial Guinea", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nguema Mbasogo", - "month_risk": "0.0006645", - "annual_risk": "0.0166975", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "41.58333", - "country_code": "GNQ", - "country_abb": "EQG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8554/women-get-70-of-bachelors-degrees-us-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was [34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.10.asp?current=yes). Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, [women get the majority of all degrees](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-degrees-of-separation-between-the-genders-in-college-keeps-growing/2019/10/25/8b2e5094-f2ab-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html), from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]\nWill women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?\nThis resolve positively if data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) shows that in the 2049-2050 school year women were awarded at least 70% of all bachelor's degrees in that year. If the NCES no longer publishes relevant data the highest credible estimate from other sources may be used. \"Female\" or \"women\" will be as defined by the NCES, or if the NCES no longer uses the terms male and female the sex or gender definition used by NCES will be used, so long as the ultimate representation represents either the share of degrees granted to those identifying as female or as women at time of graduation or who were female at birth. If alternate data sources are used any definition of female or woman that conforms to these resolution criteria is acceptable.\nIf bachelor's degrees no longer exist in a form comparable to the definition used by NCES for the data in the question background, admins may use their judgement to resolve based on statistics for similar post-secondary degrees, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:00:02.643Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T17:13:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/satoshis-bitcoins-spent-by-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nWill any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075? \nThis question will resolve positively if any bitcoin known to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto's original wallet addresses have been transferred, according to credible media reports.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, this will not count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else who then spend them, this will qualify for resolution. Any transactions in any amount of bitcoin will qualify for resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:55:29.196Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 179, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-05-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.4% in January 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-015", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 83, - "yes_ask": 86, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 17268 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/major-state-exits-eu-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU by 2027? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:08:25.928Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1100, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day median of daily new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the world?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The future of COVID-19 is an open question, as \"next waves\" remain possible. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO in its global data file (covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv). In the downloaded CSV file, sum the \"New_deaths\" column data by date. Seven-day medians will be calculated from those data. The question will resolve using the data available no later than 1 April 2022, though the question would close early if requisite data indicate a seven-day median greater than the highest bin as of at least 14 calendar days after the date of all pertinent data. At question launch, the WHO data indicated that the highest seven-day median of daily new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the world was 14,529 in January 2021 (goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO_Case_and_Death_Data_as_of_31_March_2021.xlsx).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 1,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1,000 and 3,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 3,000 but fewer than 7,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7,000 and 15,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 15,000", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:00.254Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1,000, Between 1,000 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 7,000, Between 7,000 and 15,000, inclusive, More than 15,000" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Estonia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Estonia is Kaja Kallas, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Estonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0023785", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9976215, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Estonia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Kaja Kallas", - "month_risk": "0.0001955", - "annual_risk": "0.0023785", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "EST", - "country_abb": "EST" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:57:28.674Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 239, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by May 17th?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-may-17th", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2255967868888385554205054124886366", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7744032131111614445794945875113634", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "15", - "liquidity": "771.54", - "tradevolume": "1306.62", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8829/new-supreme-court-justice-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/) \nThe Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die.\nWill a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?\nIf a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn order for this question to resolve positive a justice must be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate by the resolution date. A justice being nominated and not confirmed; or being added only via a recess appointment, would not be sufficient to cause this question to resolve positive unless they are also confirmed by the Senate before the resolve date. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:13:54.582Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 191, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/amazon-is-hiring-a-digital-currency-and-blockchain-expert.html), [City A.M.](https://www.cityam.com/amazon-definitely-lining-up-bitcoin-payments-and-token-confirms-insider/), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/amazon-no-we-have-no-plans-to-accept-bitcoin-payments)). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:38.363Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 650, - "numforecasters": 306, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower by more than 8%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher by more than 4%", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:01.489Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "\n \n\n
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower by more than 8%, Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive , Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% , Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4%" - }, - { - "title": "Omicron is declared VOHC by 2022 Mar 1", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A254", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:54:46.311Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:41.297Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 124, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:29:41.848Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -7464,404 +44339,336 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Zemmour, Cyril Hanouna, Michel Onfray, Didier Raoult, Jean-Marie Bigard, A yellow jacket personality, Assa Traoré, None of the above" }, { - "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2024 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\nFor reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress) \n", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Somalia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Somalia is Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Somalia has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 8 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": "0.0305833", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.9694167, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:08.963Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z" - }, "stars": 3 }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Somalia", + "regime_type": "Civilian Provisional", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo", + "month_risk": "0.009106", + "annual_risk": "0.0305833", + "risk_change_percent": "0.69", + "regime_years": "8", + "leader_years": "4.166667", + "country_code": "SOM", + "country_abb": "SOM" + }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Arooj Aftab win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-1", + "title": "Will there be over 250,000 **new COVID-19 cases** on Thursday in the US?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CASE-130", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Arooj Aftab has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", + "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for February 03, 2022, is greater than 250,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see CASE in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis market will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 03, 2022 or February 10, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.010000000000000009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 98, + "yes_ask": 99, "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 14602 + "shares_volume": 4234 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the US ban export of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8860/us-export-ban-on-ricewheatmaizesoybeans-by-42023/", + "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill the US ban exports of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside the US, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of US Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n", + "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:16:04.880Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:47.584Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 307, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2167-what-will-be-the-us-domestic-auto-inventory-as-of-may-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/30/us-auto-sales-forecast-to-plummet-in-third-quarter-as-chip-shortage-plagues-industry.html), [Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a37823495/auto-dealers-low-inventory-profits/)). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA)). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)", - "probability": 0.79, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive", + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:35.974Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 209, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in South Korea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of South Korea is Moon Jae-in, who has been in power for 3.8 years. South Korea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 34 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0021282", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9978718, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "South Korea", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Moon Jae-in", + "month_risk": "0.0001784", + "annual_risk": "0.0021282", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "34", + "leader_years": "3.833333", + "country_code": "KOR", + "country_abb": "ROK" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8509/will-meta-see-10%25E2%2581%25B9-active-users-by-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people. Will this happen?\n\nContext\n-------\n\n---Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\" \nWill Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?\nThis question resolves positively when Meta Platforms, Inc. (or company which will be a rebranded version of Metaverse) in its Q3 2031 Earnings (or an analogous document) will report one billion or more (), daily active users on its \"screenless\" platforms (AR or VR glasses, holograms, etc. combined).\nFor a more precise definition of technology being \"screenless\" see [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/).\nRelated questions: - [Date when new tech replaces visual screens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 700.0 (thousands)", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:10.478Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 301, - "numforecasters": 102, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands), Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive, More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands), Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive, More than 700.0 (thousands)" - }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:36.130Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:27.688Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 25802 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://%28https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/%29) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:17:02.761Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 132, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/", + "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n", + "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:13.576Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:38.910Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 277, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/", + "title": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 occurs on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city (judged by credible media reports). This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nCities are defined as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization])([https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities…](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8376/nuclear-weapon-detonations-on-cities/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "description": "[Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_%28Honduras%29) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. \nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\nPróspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).\nWill Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?\nThis question resolves positively if Próspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Próspera do.\nIf Próspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:01:57.981Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:07.110Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mandela Barnes", - "probability": 0.6106194690265487, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alex Lasry", - "probability": 0.168141592920354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steven Olikara", - "probability": 0.09734513274336284, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Godlewski", - "probability": 0.05309734513274337, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Nelson", - "probability": 0.03539823008849558, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gillian Battino", - "probability": 0.01769911504424779, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.008849557522123895, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Larson", - "probability": 0.008849557522123895, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:53.815Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 105146 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mandela Barnes, Alex Lasry, Steven Olikara, Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson, Gillian Battino, Ron Kind, Chris Larson" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/vr-outsells-ar-headsets-in-2025/", + "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n", + "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:50.402Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:59.925Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 358, + "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:27:09.914Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:08.584Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 379, + "numforecasts": 450, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice by April 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7719/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-by-April-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on January 27, 2022, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. \nConfirmation of an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "title": ">=47 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A167", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:56.615Z", + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 31629 + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -7882,7 +44689,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -7903,298 +44710,213 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8605/most-of-us-ic-favor-covid-lab-leak-hypothesis/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n---\"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\" \n---\"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\" \n---\"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\" \n---\"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\" \nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n---\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\" \n---\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\" \n---\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\" \nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"\nBy 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025-01-01 a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question. \nFor example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis (\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure\"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis (\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident\"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis (\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation\"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.\nNote that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. \"moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from\" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other. \nThis question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.\nA statement by the IC or credible media reports must come out before 2025-01-01 for this to resolve positively — i.e., this will resolve on the basis of when such information/statement comes out publicly and not when the assessment itself was made.\nNot all IC organizations have to express support for either hypothesis or even need to express a view at all. Rather, a simple majority of the IC organizations that do express that they at least somewhat favor one hypothesis over the other will be considered for resolution.\nIf an equal number of IC organizations favor either hypothesis (e.g. 4 favor the lab leak hypothesis and 4 favor the natural origin hypothesis), this resolves negatively.\nThe definitions of the lab leak and natural origin hypotheses used by the IC at time of resolution are what will be considered — e.g., if the IC considers \"sampling\" by members of a Hubei lab to fall under the lab leak hypothesis, then that is the definition Metaculus will use at time of resolution. However, if the definitions are unclear or ambiguous, then we will consider anything involving laboratory personnel who are doing research-related work of any kind to fall under the purview of the lab leak hypothesis, while all else falls under the natural origin hypothesis. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:50.435Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2023-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:01:09.095Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:54:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Seychelles in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Tajikistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Seychelles is Wavel Ramkalawan, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Seychelles has a party regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "description": "The current leader of Tajikistan is Rakhmonov, who has been in power for 28.3 years. Tajikistan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0190657", + "probability": "0.0168025", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9809343, + "probability": 0.9831975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Seychelles", - "regime_type": "Party", + "country_name": "Tajikistan", + "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Wavel Ramkalawan", - "month_risk": "0.0005449", - "annual_risk": "0.0190657", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "0.4166667", - "country_code": "SYC", - "country_abb": "SEY" + "leader_name": "Rakhmonov", + "month_risk": "0.003603", + "annual_risk": "0.0168025", + "risk_change_percent": "0.08", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "28.33333", + "country_code": "TJK", + "country_abb": "TAJ" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/", + "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", + "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:43:53.577Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2235-when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-reported-to-the-cdc-next-be-50-000-or-lower", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases)). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 February 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 August 2022", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:59.366Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 277, - "numforecasters": 124, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 February 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Not before 1 August 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Romania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Romania is Iohannis, who has been in power for 6.3 years. Romania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0035908", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9964092, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Romania", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Iohannis", - "month_risk": "0.0002948", - "annual_risk": "0.0035908", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "29", - "leader_years": "6.25", - "country_code": "ROU", - "country_abb": "ROM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8910891089108911, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.10891089108910891, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:37.811Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 251969 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:29:57.736Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 209, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:18:17.760Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:19.810Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be indicted by Apr. 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7510/Will-Donald-Trump-be-indicted-by-Apr-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. For purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8110/saudi-israel-normalization-if-iran-bomb/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.\nWill Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?\nIf [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:31.628Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 12, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least three US counties lock down (close haircut appointments) due to Omicron by EOY 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A258", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-12-16T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:04.084Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 82, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:26.146Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 75, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A261", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7829/us-state-to-overturn-election-result-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/) \nIn US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which is the date 6 days prior to the meeting of the electoral college, when the president is officially elected.\nIn 2020, there were numerous efforts at the state level in a number of states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, to change the result from the result projected by major news organisations, often alleging that voter fraud had resulted in Joe Biden's victory. None of these were ultimately successful.\nIn the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?\nThis question resolves positively if any US state (including DC and districts of states) officially submits results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline (currently, December 10th, 2024) that are different from the projected winner of that state according to at least 6 of the following news desks: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, and the NYT.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -8207,457 +44929,329 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:18.839Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:30.022Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 544665 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will more than 260 million Americans be **vaccinated for COVID-19** by March 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VAXX-042", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If over 260 million Americans are reported as vaccinated for COVID-19 by March 1, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see VAXX in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for March 1, 2022 or March 8, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 3, - "yes_ask": 5, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 38006 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:12.280Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 53, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-10T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/", + "title": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8142/fy21-ndaa-study-publicly-available-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n", + "description": "Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 [states](https://www.nationalacademies.org/ocga/public-laws/william-m-mac-thornberry-national-defense-authorization-act-for-fiscal-year-2021):\n\"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war. \n[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).\n[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.\"\nThe bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that \"18 months after the enactment of this act\" would make this report due by 2022-07-01. \nAs [noted by the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-04/news-briefs/congress-mandates-studies-nuclear-war):\n\"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986.\"\nIt seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available.\nWill the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2023-01-01, the National Academies publicly releases a report that is framed as fulfilling the mandate from Section 3171 of the FY21 NDAA and is indeed substantially focused on possible environmental effects of nuclear war.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:37.453Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:59.859Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 280, + "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-17T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a **new Supreme Court justice** be confirmed in 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOTUS-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No. Please see SCOTUS in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.\n. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and December 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 92, - "yes_ask": 95, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 123960 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/", + "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n", + "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:39:57.951Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 304, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations. \nWill an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. \nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:12:00.992Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 142, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:38:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:38:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):\n\"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified\"\nElection certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a [\"safe harbor\" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The \"safe harbor\" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.\nIn the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?\nThe question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the \"safe harbor\" deadline. The \"safe harbor\" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:56:38.561Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 103, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-02T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:08:57.524Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 254, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the \"[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_%28rocket%29)\".\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\nResolution is by credible media report.\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:05.831Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 571, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:00:21.407Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 177, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:24:52.440Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:17.863Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 216, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", + "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many Republican governors will there be after the midterms?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7632/How-many-Republican-governors-will-there-be-after-the-midterms", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the number of State governors with a Republican party affiliation, at the End Date listed below. \nParty affiliation shall refer to Senator's ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference on the day of the election. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "title": "Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2156-will-a-cryptocurrency-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-the-nyse-and-or-nasdaq-stock-exchanges-before-31-december-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue ([The Block](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/119365/sec-rolls-decisions-on-four-bitcoin-etf-applications-to-end-of-2021), [CP24](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-clash-grayscales-ceo-says-secs-gensler-shortsighted-in-backing-a-bitcoin-futures-etf-11633271596)). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count ([Investopedia - Stablecoin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp), [Investopedia - CBDC](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { - "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "23", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "24", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "25", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "26", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "27", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "28", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "29", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "30", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "31", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "32 or more", - "probability": 0.39, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:23.111Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:41.133Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 186, + "numforecasters": 72, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will MetaMask launch a token by March 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-march-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will have a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the MetaMask product or protocol, and substantiated by MetaMask or ConsenSys via official websites or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf MetaMask has a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1586497317748600361448349203811201", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8413502682251399638551650796188799", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "50", + "liquidity": "500.00", + "tradevolume": "1709.25", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:18.670Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 85, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-16T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:15.494Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 108, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.7% in January 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-018", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.7% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 26756 + "yes_bid": 11, + "yes_ask": 13, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 4206 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "22 or fewer, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 or more" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 150,000 on March 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-150000-on-march-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 150,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ", + "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4070507635008314239554669301326879", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5929492364991685760445330698673121", + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:13.963Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "27", - "liquidity": "6541.36", - "tradevolume": "1965.17", + "numforecasts": 406, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_%28columnist%29) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "title": "Will the highest **corporate tax** rate be raised above 21% in 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CORP-003", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate becomes law between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. \n\nOther provisions that may affect the amount of corporate tax paid by a given corporation but are not the corporate income tax rate--such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to corporations--do not affect the resolution of the Contract. A bill that creates different tax brackets with some brackets below the threshold and others above with a rate greater than 21% (the current highest rate) is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, since the Contract only considers the top tax bracket. Subsequent legislation which has the effect of lowering the top tax rate imposed on corporate income below 21% does not affect the Payout Criterion. Surtaxes imposed on taxable income or (adjusted) gross income imposed on incomes in the top tax bracket are encompassed in the Payout Criterion. Increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of corporate income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not relevant for the market's resolution.\n\nThe above is a summary of the complete legally binding terms and conditions. Please see CORP in the Rulebook for the complete legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and understand the complete legally binding terms and conditions before trading.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, or 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, the release of the data (Congress.gov updating) for December 31, 2022, or January 07, 2023.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that became law between Issuance and December 31, 2022. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:41:33.392Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 87, + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 17, + "yes_ask": 21, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 3270 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7832/3-us-code--15-objections-to-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).\nIf there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.\nIn January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?\nThis question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:40.424Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-05T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8858/thailands-export-ban-on-rice/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Thailand officials announce an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Thailand, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the King, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Thai legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:27.561Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -8680,9 +45274,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:21:47.065Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:41.799Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 301, + "numforecasts": 302, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -8694,201 +45288,100 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Fiji in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Fiji is Bainimarama, who has been in power for 14.2 years. Fiji has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 14 years", + "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0120465", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9879535, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:28.286Z", "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 97, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Fiji", - "regime_type": "Military-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Bainimarama", - "month_risk": "0.0031693", - "annual_risk": "0.0120465", - "risk_change_percent": "0.07", - "regime_years": "14", - "leader_years": "14.16667", - "country_code": "FJI", - "country_abb": "FIJ" - }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Evermore by Taylor Swift win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-9", + "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:13.268Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 71, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7966/israel-hezbollah-war-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Israel and Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization and Lebanese militia, [fought a war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) in 2006. [Several](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/lebanon-matti-friedman) [sources](https://breakingdefense.com/2021/08/are-israel-and-lebanon-heading-for-another-war/) have warned of another war or potential conflict. The Syrian Civil War has seen Hezbollah [increase its presence in Syria](https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-conflict-hezbollah-syria). Israel [has struck](https://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israel-strikes-Syrian-weapons-en-route-to-Hezbollah) Hezbollah weapons.\nWill there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2030:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\nPositive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2029. The threshold 100 at the timescale involved is such that this is unlikely. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:31:57.844Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 108, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-5", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Evermore by Taylor Swift has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 9662 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any state leave NATO by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):\n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill any state leave NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is a part of NATO at the start of this tournament has left NATO by 2023-12-31. This requires that the state has actually left NATO by that date, rather than merely announcing its intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving. \nThis will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the state no longer being included on the member list on NATO's official website.\nIf a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would not count toward a positive resolution.\nFor simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:59:20.320Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Sweden in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Sweden is Lofven, who has been in power for 6.4 years. Sweden has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 102 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0010486", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9989514, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Sweden", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lofven", - "month_risk": "0.0000862", - "annual_risk": "0.0010486", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "102", - "leader_years": "6.416667", - "country_code": "SWE", - "country_abb": "SWD" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)\nWill >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there has been at least one offensive nuclear detonation of nuclear weapons owned by each of at least 3 countries. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon owned by each of China, North Korea, and the US are offensively detonated, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nSee also\n--- \n[Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDifferent countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:09.913Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 11, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9591/tau-variant-by-tau-day-628/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Tau (τ) is proposed as a circle constant, the ratio of a circle's circumference by its radius; its value, 6.283185..., is twice that of the [most commonly used constant, π](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi).\nIn honor of half-tau, March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Some even more delightfully pedantic geeks, who contend that pi is wrong and want a pretext to eat twice as much pie, propose [tau day](https://tauday.com/) as a celebration on June 28 (6/28).\nTau is also a [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after ο, π, ρ, σ, which suggests it could be the name of a future named variant of SARS-COV-2 [declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, ν and ξ, have been skipped so far.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times. Beta and Gamma had some minor impact, and the others don't seem to have been very noteworthy - Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda and Mu.\nWill there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?\nThis question will resolve positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"tau\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by June 28, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about a future named variant using Tau Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter tau and goes straight to upsilon (or phi, chi...) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:47:22.967Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-12T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-29T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, will Pedro Castillo lose power in Peru?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Pedro Castillo, president of Peru, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Castillo has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", + "description": "If Kamala Harris is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if Kamala Harris is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -8901,1645 +45394,118 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8313/sbf-as-the-richest-person-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Sam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried).\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, by January 1st, 2050, a comment on this Metaculus question links to an archive of the Bloomberg Billionaire Index OR the Forbes real-time list of billionaires indicating that Sam Bankman-Fried was the richest person in the world. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nAcceptable archive sites include [archive.is](http://archive.is) and [archive.org](http://archive.org). However, any archival site that is determined to be trustworthy by Metaculus moderators would also work.\nThis question will resolve at the minimum date of any such archive, if it exists.\n(These resolution criteria are similar to those of [this question about Elon Musk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/) created by [Matthew_Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) in February 2020.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:48:36.897Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2042-05-05T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8505/20-embryo-screened-births-us-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html), the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282%2807%2901216-2/fulltext).\nBy 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 20% of babies born in the United States in any year before 2050 underwent embryo screening or PGD, according to credible media reports, statements by the US government, or public health agencies. Screening must have taken place before the embryo was implanted in the uterus.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:14.955Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2055-12-31T17:44:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 26 August 2022, according to Bloomberg?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2247-what-will-be-the-closing-price-per-barrel-for-west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-on-26-august-2022-according-to-bloomberg", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As the world looks to alternative fuels, oil prices remain key to the energy industry ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/energy-investment-needs-to-increase-so-bills-and-taxes-must-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $55.00", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $70.00 but less than $85.00", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $100.00 but less than $115.00", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$115.00 or more", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:36.375Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 135, - "numforecasters": 88, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $55.00, Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $85.00, Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive, More than $100.00 but less than $115.00, $115.00 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8513/addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \nWill Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?\nResolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:\n--- \nthe National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front\n--- \nwho are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces\n--- \nand who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:47.655Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 254, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:10.365Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 89, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Hillary Clinton win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1440999038730176751768368919698672", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8559000961269823248231631080301328", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "17", - "liquidity": "1503.10", - "tradevolume": "3354.48", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8035/russia-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The National Interest [has reported](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-fines-pro-afghanistan-protesters-pursues-relations-taliban-192822) that Russia is pursuing friendly relations with the Taliban.\nWill Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Russian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:36:50.921Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:35:52.372Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 114, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win NV 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A161", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Spain in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Spain is Sanchez, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Spain has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 45 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0028549", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9971451, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Spain", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Sanchez", - "month_risk": "0.0002343", - "annual_risk": "0.0028549", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "45", - "leader_years": "2.75", - "country_code": "ESP", - "country_abb": "SPN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2155-when-will-the-government-of-ontario-cease-to-require-people-to-show-proof-of-covid-19-vaccination-to-use-indoor-areas-of-restaurants", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases ([Ontario.ca](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/proof-covid-19-vaccination), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-cases-data-september-14-1.6174855), [CTV News](https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-s-vaccine-passport-system-begins-and-this-is-what-you-need-to-know-1.5591806)). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 19 November 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 12 February 2022", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:36.349Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 178, - "numforecasters": 103, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 November 2021, Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022, Not before 12 February 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office the individual holds upon launch of this market on August 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.8738738738738737, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pedro Castillo", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:39.999Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 73875 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sebastián Piñera, Jair Bolsonaro, Pedro Castillo, Guillermo Lasso, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro" - }, - { - "title": "Will Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Vietnam officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Vietnam, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Vietnamese legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:16:47.032Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/cannabis-removed-from-us-schedule-i-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year.\nWill cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:08.164Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 543, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will more than 1.5 million people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TSAW-051", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.5 million for the week ending February 06, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nPlease see TSAW in the Rulebook for details and the legally binding terms and conditions. \n\nThe Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for February 06, 2022, or one week after February 06, 2022. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM ET on February 06, 2022.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 10, - "yes_ask": 13, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 7710 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:45.315Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1733, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2181-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, China is facing new disruptions to its economy ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/17/economy/china-gdp-q3-intl-hnk/index.html), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-economy-third-quarter-gdp-data-grows-4point9percent-missing-expectations.html)). The outcome will be determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as reported by Trading Economics ([Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined when the relevant data for 2Q 2022 are first released, scheduled for July 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 4.0%", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:43.986Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 117, - "numforecasters": 39, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the 47th US president?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:34.835Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 188631 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:13.435Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 440, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:16:46.359Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 144, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Florida average more than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases** per day by February 1?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-012", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Florida is above 100,000 for a single day between Issuance and February 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for February 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Florida according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, + "yes_bid": 1, + "yes_ask": 2, "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 38518 + "shares_volume": 14074 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the **unemployment rate** (U-3) be above 3.8% in January?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/U3-011", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the unemployment rate (U-3) is above 3.8% in January 2022 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see U3 in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for January 2022, or February 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM ET. The market will always close on February 04, 2022 at 8:25 AM ET.. The resolution source is: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 53, - "yes_ask": 56, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 6670 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/", + "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:11:32.058Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7786/100-deaths-in-india-pakistan-conflict-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since [partition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India), [India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) and [Pakistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) have had a [tense relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and [many conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:26:03.198Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:29:47.093Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/member-exits-eurozone-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nWill any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? \nThis question will resolve positively if, on or before January 1 2025, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency. The list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:31:49.040Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 314, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:10:13.063Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 175, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, who will succeed French prime minister Jean Castex?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "The \"Jean Castex\" option will win if no one else succeeds him as prime minister in 2021. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jean Castex", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A woman", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.971Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jean Castex, Another man, A woman" - }, - { - "title": "Will The Kid LAROI win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-7", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If The Kid LAROI has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 22816 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Anthony Fauci remain NIAID director through the end of the year?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7702/Will-Anthony-Fauci-remain-NIAID-director-through-the-end-of-the-year", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dr. Anthony Fauci holds the office of Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:03.427Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 17158 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/) \n[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming.\nThis question is more narrow in scope, and asks if commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for meat will be banned by 2040 (so farming for eggs and dairy are not included in this scope).\nWill commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for their meat by the end of 2040.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:18:52.693Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will average daily **COVID-19 case numbers in Germany** be above 175,000 for the week ending February 07, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-016", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Germany in the period between in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 is greater than 175,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 07, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 21, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 for Germany as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 17, - "yes_ask": 21, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 6610 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6424/substack-to-join-cancel-culture/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. They're known for refusing to remove contentious content, as a [recent TechCrunch article](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/substack-doubles-down-on-uncensored-free-speech-with-acquisition-of-letter/) explains,\nAs Substack grew, writers left jobs at BuzzFeed and the New York Times, lured by pay raises and cautious optimism. But as more writers came forward as part of the Substack Pro program, Substack was criticized for subsidizing anti-trans rhetoric, since some of these writers used their newsletters to share such views. Substack admits it’s not entirely apolitical, but the choices of which writers to subsidize, and its decision to use only lightweight moderation tactics, are a political choice in an era of the internet when content moderation has a tangible effect on global politics. Some writers even chose to leave the platform, as a result.\nWill Substack cancel anyone before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Substack cancels an account, or suspends or deletes any post, of a Substack author with at least 100 subscribers, free or paid, for a reason which is not in their Terms of Use at the time the question opens (an archive of which can be found [here](https://archive.is/Jabkj)).\nNegative resolution will be determined if, according to admin discretion, no one in the Metaculus community was able to find a credible example of Substack cancelling anyone in the way previously described.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:41:50.586Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 148, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:48:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:43:21.676Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-16T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 1000 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 5000 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield of 250kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:04:55.466Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 13, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:14:07.998Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 161, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:39:47.326Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 162, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:07:10.862Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 98, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?\nThis question will resolve positively if Holden wins the above bet with Zvi, according to Holden's and Zvi's public agreement to resolve the bet. Resolution is positive if Holden wins, negative if Zvi wins, and ambiguous if they declare the bet is a \"push\".\nA related Metaculus question on whether this bet will resolve ambigously can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:29:51.883Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 197, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T18:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_%28histology%29) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:59:32.870Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How much spending in the reconciliation package by July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7646/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package-by-July-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the final Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) Cost Estimate of the total outlays, including discretionary, mandatory, and any other category of spending, over ten years for the first qualifying reconciliation package bill signed into law subsequent to the launch of this market on December 15, 2021, and before the End Date listed below. \nFor the purposes of this market, a bill shall be considered a qualifying reconciliation package if it is passed pursuant to the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, and if the CBO Cost Estimate of total outlays for the bill is greater than $300 Billion over ten years. A bill that raises the federal debt limit but does not meet the above condition shall not be sufficient to settle this market. \nIf the CBO Cost Estimate does not include a specific estimate over a time period of ten years, this market shall use the cost estimate for the longest time period that both includes a defined cost estimate and is shorter than ten years. \nShould no qualifying reconciliation bill be signed into law before the End Date listed below, the contract identifying the range “$0.6T or lower” shall resolve as yes.\nAny CBO Cost Estimate released after a bill is signed into law will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "$0.6T or lower", - "probability": 0.5925925925925926, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$0.6T to $0.8T", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$0.8T to $1T", - "probability": 0.05555555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$1T to $1.2T", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$1.2T to $1.4T", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$1.4T to $1.6T", - "probability": 0.07407407407407407, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$1.6T to $1.8T", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$1.8T to $2.0T", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$2.0T to $2.2T", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$2.2T or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:53.096Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 455792 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "$0.6T or lower, $0.6T to $0.8T, $0.8T to $1T, $1T to $1.2T, $1.2T to $1.4T, $1.4T to $1.6T, $1.6T to $1.8T, $1.8T to $2.0T, $2.0T to $2.2T, $2.2T or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:17:56.101Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:18.831Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 278, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:10.554Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 137, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TN-05 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7724/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TN-05-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Tennessee's Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Morgan Ortagus", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Robby Starbuck", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Quincy McKnight", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "\"Kid Rock\" Ritchie", - "probability": 0.03, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:18.623Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:04.204Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 481 + "numforecasts": 72, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Ortagus, Robby Starbuck, Quincy McKnight, \"Kid Rock\" Ritchie" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Georgia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Georgia is Gakharia, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Georgia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 2 years", + "title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_%28trader%29) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0053381", + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9946619, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:18.788Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 96, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Israel in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Israel is Netanyahu, who has been in power for 12.0 years. Israel has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 73 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0057808", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9942192, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Georgia", + "country_name": "Israel", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Gakharia", - "month_risk": "0.0004326", - "annual_risk": "0.0053381", + "leader_name": "Netanyahu", + "month_risk": "0.0002394", + "annual_risk": "0.0057808", "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "2", - "leader_years": "1.5", - "country_code": "GEO", - "country_abb": "GRG" + "regime_years": "73", + "leader_years": "12", + "country_code": "ISR", + "country_abb": "ISR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many votes to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB director by May 6?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7725/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-director-by-May-6", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young (the \"Nominee\") to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"53 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"70 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 05/06/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "53 or fewer", - "probability": 0.1239669421487603, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.10743801652892561, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.1818181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.28099173553719003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.10743801652892561, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.033057851239669415, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.04958677685950412, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "66 or 67", - "probability": 0.033057851239669415, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "68 or 69", - "probability": 0.033057851239669415, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "70 or more", - "probability": 0.04958677685950412, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:22.704Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1689 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "53 or fewer, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or 67, 68 or 69, 70 or more" - }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/gc-caused-by-natural-pandemic-if-gc-occurs/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:18:01.407Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 304, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:38.429Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Someone other R is 2024 POTUS", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A246", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2234-before-1-september-2022-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/cyril-ramaphosa-says-the-world-must-end-vaccine-apartheid), [US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-04/a-year-after-covid-vaccine-waiver-proposal-wto-talks-are-deadlocked), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/intl_business/wto-trips-waiver-ip-india-south-africa-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html)). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states ([WTO](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm), [SDG Knowledge Hub](https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:07.386Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 193, - "numforecasters": 142, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Metaculus' [Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/) explores threats to the human race. Several define a \"Global Catastrophe\" to mean a period of 5 years or less where the world population declines by 10% or more. Despite humanity's tumultuous history, including [World Wars 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) and [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [1918 Flu pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), and the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the only events likely to meet this criteria would be [the Black Death](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death) of 1347 and the year 560 [Plague of Justinian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian). For other estimates of major pandemics, see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics).\nMetaculus has some other estimates of extinction or near extinction (all estimates as of December 29, 2021):\n---2% [chance of extinction by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/). \n---25% (or less) of extinction [conditional on a decline to 100 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/time-of-recovery-following-global-catastrophe/) by year 2345. \n---25% of extinction within 20 years, [conditional on a decline to 400 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) by year 2100. \nThe Ragnarok Series attempts to forecast the relative severity of various existential risks, such as Climate, Nuclear War, Artificial Intelligence, Biological Engineering and Biological Weapons, and Nanotechnology. While those these recieve the majority of attention and concern in 2021, there may be risks resulting from unforseen future developments, or risks from dangers currently known but recieving insufficient attention. For this question, we'll ask about the risk of population decline by any cause as a point of comparison.\nRagnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after the world population declines by 10% (in any period of 5 years or less), the global population is less than 5% of the pre-decline population at any point within 25 years after the catastrophe. This question will resolve negatively if there is a global population decline of 10% in 5 years or less, but there is no population decline of 95% in a 25-year period. If there is no such population decline of 10% in any 5-year period between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n6-- \n[If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n7-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n12- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. \n", + "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nOn this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe. As of November 25, [The Economist's median estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) for the COVID-19 global death toll is 17.3M, which amount to 0.22% of the global population:\nAlthough the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5.2m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 17.3m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.8m and 20.2m additional deaths.\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on our definition. It is estimated that the bubonic plague pandemic, which ocurred in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353, killed [between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history). Using [estimates of the global population at the time](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html), these numbers suggest that the Black Death killed between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?\nThe question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opossed to being synthesized, edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -10552,54 +45518,118 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:26:05.304Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:39.415Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 56, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2120-06-15T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 a deliberate detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:50:34.353Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:45.409Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 168, + "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:51:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:51:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Right On Time by Brandi Carlile win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-10", + "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7673/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2022 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "3 or fewer votes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "4 or 5 votes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "6 or 7 votes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "8 or 9 votes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "10 or 11 votes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "12 or 13 votes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "14 or 15 votes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "16 or 17 votes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "18 or 19 votes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "20 or more", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:07.637Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 15724 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "3 or fewer votes, 4 or 5 votes, 6 or 7 votes, 8 or 9 votes, 10 or 11 votes, 12 or 13 votes, 14 or 15 votes, 16 or 17 votes, 18 or 19 votes, 20 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-8", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Right On Time by Brandi Carlile has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "description": "If Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -10612,421 +45642,50 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 0, "yes_ask": 1, "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 27382 + "shares_volume": 27008 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8407/retail-locations-half-of-2020-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "E-commerce has grown in popularity and has caused many to speculate that physical shopping may become obsolete in the future. \nPhysical department store locations have faced a slow decline in recent years, with a sharper decline exacerbated by the pandemic in 2020 (see the section titled \"Number of department store locations in the US\" [here](https://www.vox.com/recode/21561046/death-rebirth-department-stores-retail-charts)).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about physical retail in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe majority of all current brick and mortar stores that are not located in scenic or tightly-packed downtowns will have closed. From stores that sell physical objects to chain restaurants, most of the physical locations you can go and shop will be gone. Instead, you will be able to get any product you would normally buy in a physical store delivered to you in under an hour, sometimes in mere minutes.\nWill retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2021 and 2050, at least 4 of the following 7 business categories report 50% fewer physical establishments than reported in 2020:\n---Electronics and appliance stores \n---Grocery stores \n---Health and personal care stores \n---Clothing stores \n---Shoe stores \n---Department stores \n---Limited-service restaurants \nResolution will be according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/). The categories above are fully defined by [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/) in the fine print. If BLS no longer reports this data or changes their classification or methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source of data or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.\nBLS categorizes businesses using [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/). categories are listed with the total number of establishments in the US for 2020 (as of November 24, 2021). BLS series IDs are useful for retrieving data from [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate).\nNAICS ID description 2020 number of establishments BLS series ID \n4431\nElectronics and appliance stores\n43643\nENUUS0002054431\n4451\nGrocery stores\n89545\nENUUS0002054451\n4461\nHealth and personal care stores\n112133\nENUUS0002054461\n4481\nClothing stores\n79968\nENUUS0002054481\n4482\nShoe stores\n15993\nENUUS0002054482\n4522\nDepartment stores\n11567\nENUUS0002054522\n722513\nLimited-service restaurants\n248416\nENUUS000205722513\nNumbers of establishments in 2020 will be used as above, unless there is more accurate data known to Metaculus Admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:52.762Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:53:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T20:53:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Ecuador in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Uganda in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Ecuador is Lenin Moreno, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Ecuador has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "description": "The current leader of Uganda is Museveni, who has been in power for 35.2 years. Uganda has a personal regime type which has lasted for 35 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0099077", + "probability": "0.0195445", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9900923, + "probability": 0.9804555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Ecuador", - "regime_type": "Presidential", + "country_name": "Uganda", + "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lenin Moreno", - "month_risk": "0.0006959", - "annual_risk": "0.0099077", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.02", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "3.833333", - "country_code": "ECU", - "country_abb": "ECU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:12:25.194Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 59, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected Milwaukee mayor in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7696/Who-will-be-elected-Milwaukee-mayor-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Milwaukee, Wisconsin in the 2022 mayoral special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Cavalier Johnson", - "probability": 0.7326732673267327, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Earnell Lucas", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lena Taylor", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bob Donovan", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marina Dimitrijevic", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Sampson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:43.428Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 4947 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Cavalier Johnson, Earnell Lucas, Lena Taylor, Bob Donovan, Marina Dimitrijevic, Michael Sampson" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Guatemala in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Guatemala is Giammattei, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Guatemala has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 25 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0058023", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9941977, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Guatemala", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Giammattei", - "month_risk": "0.000452", - "annual_risk": "0.0058023", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "25", - "leader_years": "1.166667", - "country_code": "GTM", - "country_abb": "GUA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Harris is 2024 POTUS", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A247", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8600/oral-semaglutide-approval-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.\nWill oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve an orally-administered form of Semaglutide (AKA Rybelsus) for the purpose of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:29.140Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:31:56.962Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win FL 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A156", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:20.319Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 162, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-03 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7681/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-03-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Third Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Van Taylor", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keith Self", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suzanne Harp", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rickey Williams", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:02.440Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 4965 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Van Taylor, Keith Self, Suzanne Harp, Rickey Williams" - }, - { - "title": "Will an additional state join NATO by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-member-state-in-nato-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill an additional state join NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is not a part of NATO at the start of this tournament becomes a member of NATO effective no later than 2023-12-31. This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:59:35.835Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\nIn defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question resolves negatively if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to a resolution council or Metaculus admins.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:15:19.636Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 + "leader_name": "Museveni", + "month_risk": "0.0022028", + "annual_risk": "0.0195445", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.33", + "regime_years": "35", + "leader_years": "35.16667", + "country_code": "UGA", + "country_abb": "UGA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11047,7 +45706,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:33.296Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:11.694Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -11061,40 +45720,208 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", + "title": "[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8525/musk-sell-5-of-tesla-stock-by-july-1st-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "description": "Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088) on November 6th 2021,\nMuch is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock.\nDo you support this?\nI will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes\nAs of the time of writing this question, \"Yes\" is winning by 55.6% to 44.4%.\nWill Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if before July 1st 2022 credible media reports that Elon Musk has sold more than 5% of his Tesla shares, as compared to the number of shares he owned at the time of his Twitter poll, after taking into account [stock dilution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_dilution) and [stock splits](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp) which may occur in the meantime. If Musk gains additional shares in the company (eg. by exercising stock options), he will need to sell an additional amount to reach the 5% decrease at the time of the twitter poll.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:49:30.524Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:24.934Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, + "numforecasts": 242, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "At least two NYT authors collectively make at least 100 falsifiable forecasts by 3 Feb 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A99", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will resolve to No, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:06.337Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 216324 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/by-2025-tbc-tunnels-longer-than-trumps-wall/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?\nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:21.509Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 567, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:46.099Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 341, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:59.355Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8573/30-of-fortune-500-ceos-non-white-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n[Princeton’s incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\nEach year Fortune magazine publishes the [Fortune 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of Fortune 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of Fortune 500 CEOs are white.\nWill less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?\nThis resolves positively if a credible estimate indicates that at most 70% of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 list for the year 2050 are non-Hispanic white. In the event Fortune does not publish a list of top 500 companies for 2050 other credible lists of the top 500 US companies in the year 2050 may be used for resolution. If credible estimates disagree, the estimate indicating the lowest proportion of non-Hispanic white CEOs will be used.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:43.039Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 31, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T19:02:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.6310679611650486, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.36893203883495146, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:56.569Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 137999 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In particular, scenarios involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China nuclear conflict may be especially worth prioritizing, as those three states have the largest nuclear forces and relations between them (especially US-China) also seem important for other issues. \nIt therefore seems important to have a clearer sense of how likely it is that conflicts that do not start between those states would escalate to involve them. The more likely such escalation is, the more it would be worth also prioritizing reducing the chance of those other scenarios or of an escalation from them to a scenario involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China conflicts.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?\nThis question conditions on an offensive nuclear detonation occurring between this question opening and 2024 and the first such detonation not being (a) of a weapon owned by Russia, the US, or China, and (b) on or over the territory of one of the others of those states. For example, this condition would be met if an Indian nuclear weapon is offensively detonated over Pakistani territory or if a Chinese nuclear weapon is detonated over Japanese territory. If this condition isn't met, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and, also by 2024, at least two of the three countries Russia, the US, or China have offensively detonated at least one nuclear weapon each. Those detonations can include, but don't have to include, the detonation that met the previously specified condition. (For example, this question would resolve positively if by 2024 China offensively detonates against Japan and then the US offensively detonates against China, or if India offensively detonates against anyone and then both China and the US offensively detonate against anyone.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nRelated Questions\n--- \n[Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -11107,344 +45934,129 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:20.583Z", "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 48, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-09T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-08 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7699/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-08-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 occurs on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city (judged by credible media reports). This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nCities are defined as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization])([https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities…](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8376/nuclear-weapon-detonations-on-cities/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { - "name": "Morgan Luttrell", - "probability": 0.7254901960784313, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Christian Collins", - "probability": 0.1568627450980392, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jonathan Hullihan", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan McKaughan", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Taylor Whichard", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "name": "No", + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:53.437Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:35.313Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $4.25 billion in volume in January 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-425-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $4,250,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $4.25b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9979121116346064362778288211669881", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.00208788836539356372217117883301194", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "224", + "liquidity": "189.26", + "tradevolume": "27886.72", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on April 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-april-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on April 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on April 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Bored Apes", + "probability": "0.6532164693339660551073568843228862", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "CryptoPunks", + "probability": "0.3467835306660339448926431156771138", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "49", + "liquidity": "929.05", + "tradevolume": "3070.19", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7532/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Utah", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Utah U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, a candidate who does not represent either the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, or Green Parties shall be considered an Independent.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.9603960396039604, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Independent", + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:19.031Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 4650 + "shares_volume": 18927 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Luttrell, Christian Collins, Jonathan Hullihan, Dan McKaughan, Taylor Whichard" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected to be the next President of France, as a result of the next French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.168951161", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.7031358892446523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valerie Pecresse", - "probability": 0.1301751578736721, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.06020601051657335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Zemmour", - "probability": 0.05207006314946885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", - "probability": 0.012843948910202315, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Christiane Taubira", - "probability": 0.003210987227550579, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francois Asselineau", - "probability": 0.00109465473666497, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yanick Jadot", - "probability": 0.0009829552737399732, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Edouard Philippe", - "probability": 0.002006867017219112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": 0.0011467811526966354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean Lassalle", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joachim Son-Forget", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francois Baroin", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ségolène Royal", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Florian Philippot", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolas Hulot", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruno Le Maire", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "François Hollande", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruno Retailleau", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.0013379113448127413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Lisnard", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Philippe de Villiers", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gerald Darmanin", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean Messiha", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean Casteix", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Najat Vallaud-Belkacem", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "François Ruffin", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francois Fillon", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gerard Larcher", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alain Juppe", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Benoit Hamon", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rachida Dati", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Philippe Juvin", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Ciotti", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sandrine Rousseau", - "probability": 0.0009632961682651736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 1076026.6 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valerie Pecresse, Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Christiane Taubira, Francois Asselineau, Yanick Jadot, Edouard Philippe, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Anne Hidalgo, Jean Lassalle, Joachim Son-Forget, Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Arnaud Montebourg, Ségolène Royal, Florian Philippot, Nicolas Hulot, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Eric Piolle, Nicolas Sarkozy, Bruno Le Maire, François Hollande, Bruno Retailleau, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Pierre de Villiers, Philippe de Villiers, Gerald Darmanin, Jean Messiha, Jean Casteix, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, François Ruffin, Francois Fillon, Gerard Larcher, Alain Juppe, Benoit Hamon, Laurent Wauquiez, Rachida Dati, Philippe Juvin, Eric Ciotti, Sandrine Rousseau" - }, - { - "title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. \nvs.\n---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. \nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \nThis is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:\nIt seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n— ​​​Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video [\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)\nQuestion: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? \nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nIt compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n2-- \nIt has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n3-- \nIt defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). \n4-- \nIt defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n5-- \nIt is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:42:33.152Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 94, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9171/more-than-35-fusion-corps-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Optimism about the viability of nuclear fusion has been growing. But it is unlikely that any of the key milestones, [such as energy breakeven or commercial viability](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/), will be achieved this year (or perhaps this decade). \nAs a proxy for whether the fusion industry continues to gather pace, then, this question looks at the number of fusion companies in existence. According to [a report by the Fusion Industry Association (FIA)](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry), that number has gone up from one in 1997, to five in 2007, to 23 by 2020. \nAt the time of writing, there are \"at least 35\" global fusion companies, of which 25 are members of the FIA. Will that number go up in 2022?\nWill there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023, the [Fusion Industry Association](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry) reports that there are more than 35 fusion companies in the world. Otherwise (including if the FIA does not report any updated figures in that time) it will resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:32:05.223Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-04T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-31T00:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -11488,7 +46100,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:08.187Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:46.314Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 18992 @@ -11496,159 +46108,10 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Lombardo, Dean Heller, Joey Gilbert, Michele Fiore, John Lee, Mark Amodei, Jim Gibbons" }, { - "title": "Will USD Coin (USDC) have a market cap of $52 billion or higher on February 8, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-usd-coin-usdc-have-a-market-cap-of-52-billion-or-higher-on-february-8-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether USD Coin (USDC) will have a market cap of $52,000,000,000.00 USD or higher on the resolution date of February 8, 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if USDC has a market cap of $52 billion USD or higher according to the resolution source for the date of February 8, 2022. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the “Historical Data” table for USDC on coingecko.com (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data/usd#panel). To find the Market Cap data that will be used, open the Historical Data table for USDC, then find the number under “Market Cap” for the day of February 8, 2022. The Market Cap figure for this date will be checked at 12:00 AM ET, February 9, 2022. If the resolution source is unavailable, CoinMarketCap will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3851280989078300286742401060431037", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6148719010921699713257598939568963", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "64", - "liquidity": "400.00", - "tradevolume": "1595.63", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:31:28.141Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 308, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Somalia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Somalia is Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Somalia has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 8 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0305833", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9694167, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Somalia", - "regime_type": "Civilian Provisional", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo", - "month_risk": "0.009106", - "annual_risk": "0.0305833", - "risk_change_percent": "0.69", - "regime_years": "8", - "leader_years": "4.166667", - "country_code": "SOM", - "country_abb": "SOM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:46:27.848Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Terra ($LUNA) or Avalanche ($AVAX) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-terra-luna-or-avalanche-avax-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Terra ($LUNA) or Avalanche ($AVAX) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Terra", - "probability": "0.5753022698516998501638532914372247", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Avalanche", - "probability": "0.4246977301483001498361467085627753", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "107", - "liquidity": "1044.82", - "tradevolume": "2286.83", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Terra, Avalanche" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2125-before-1-september-2022-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir", + "title": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2131-will-dubai-s-expo-2020-attract-25-million-visits", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/nile-dam-dispute-remains-stalled-egypt-sudan-run-out-options), [All Africa](https://allafrica.com/stories/202107210509.html)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-council-urges-egypt-ethiopia-sudan-restart-dam-talks-2021-09-15/), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14576.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 ([EXPO2020](https://www.expo2020dubai.com/), [Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-easts-first-expo-open-110725927.html), [The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2021/09/19/superstars-to-open-expo-2020-dubai-with-big-bang/)). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -11661,2240 +46124,19 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:21.329Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:11.980Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, - "numforecasters": 50, + "numforecasts": 223, + "numforecasters": 81, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/", + "title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:27.408Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 216, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?\nThis question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n---at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, etc\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:58:51.969Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8383/nuclear-attacks-and-global-temperature-drop/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange\n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia\nIf >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?\nThis question will resolve positively if the following two criteria are met:\n1-- \nThere is a nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by 2030-01-01 \n2-- \nAverage global temperature during the 3 years following the conflict is at least 3°C lower than the average global temperature during the 3 years prior to the conflict.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by 2030-01-01.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in temperature but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:28.500Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Italy in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Italy is Conte, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Italy has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 75 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0023566", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9976434, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Italy", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Conte", - "month_risk": "0.0012021", - "annual_risk": "0.0023566", - "risk_change_percent": "0.1", - "regime_years": "75", - "leader_years": "2.75", - "country_code": "ITA", - "country_abb": "ITA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in New Zealand in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of New Zealand is Jacinda Ardern, who has been in power for 3.4 years. New Zealand has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 113 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0021285", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9978715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "New Zealand", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Jacinda Ardern", - "month_risk": "0.0009376", - "annual_risk": "0.0021285", - "risk_change_percent": "0.08", - "regime_years": "113", - "leader_years": "3.416667", - "country_code": "NZL", - "country_abb": "NEW" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bad Habits by Ed Sheeran win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-1", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Bad Habits by Ed Sheeran has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 26362 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": ">=90% COVID vaccination among US age 16+ population on 7 Nov 2021", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A165", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-05-07T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8729/alphabet-wins-casp15-for-protein-folding/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction](https://predictioncenter.org/), or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.\nAlphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called [Isomorphic Labs](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/blog) to focus on the drug discovery process.\nCASP15 is [currently scheduled](https://predictioncenter.org/casp15/index.cgi) to take place April-August 2022.\nWill an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if an algorithm developed by a subsidiary of Alphabet (such as DeepMind or Isomorphic Labs) wins the CASP15 group rankings for Regular Targets, or whichever name is given to the general/overall category. The preferred source will be the [official CASP website](https://predictioncenter.org/). If there is no comparable \"general category\" compared to CASP14 and prior, or if there is no singular winner, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve negatively if the competition is held but no Alphabet company competes, or they don't win. If CASP15 is not held in 2022, or overall rankings are not decided, this resolves as ambiguous. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the contest begins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:10:31.418Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 77, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:56.914Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.33333333333333337, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:52.499Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 38175 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Norway in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Norway is Solberg, who has been in power for 7.4 years. Norway has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 136 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0007499", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9992501, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Norway", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Solberg", - "month_risk": "0.0000563", - "annual_risk": "0.0007499", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "136", - "leader_years": "7.416667", - "country_code": "NOR", - "country_abb": "NOR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which Party's candidate will win the popular vote at the 2024 US Presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176967", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions. This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN. In the event of any uncertainty over which party each candidate represents the Party as defined by the Federal Election Commission will be used for settlement This market will only be void in the event that the 2024 Presidential Election does not take place, as defined below. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic Party", - "probability": 0.7836272024189025, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican Party", - "probability": 0.20310337695347064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Any Other", - "probability": 0.013269420627626751, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 30849.99 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party, Any Other" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:33:33.104Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Iran in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Iran is Rouhani, who has been in power for 7.6 years. Iran has a party regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0046657", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9953343, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Iran", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Rouhani", - "month_risk": "0.0001994", - "annual_risk": "0.0046657", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "7.583333", - "country_code": "IRN", - "country_abb": "IRN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many incumbent governors will lose primaries in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7639/How-many-incumbent-governors-will-lose-primaries-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of incumbent state governors who, in the 2022 primaries, contest and lose a gubernatorial primary election.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, only the primary for the major party that the Governor represents shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Governor to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate.\nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "0", - "probability": 0.29906542056074764, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "1", - "probability": 0.2897196261682243, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2", - "probability": 0.19626168224299065, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "3", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "4", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "6", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "7", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "8", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "9", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "10 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:35.787Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 78596 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will Justice by Justin Bieber win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-3", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe) by Justin Bieber has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 12800 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2238-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/food-prices-will-stay-high-hurting-poor-countries-most), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in July 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/), see table near bottom of page).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 130.0 but less than 140.0", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 150.0", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:53.932Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 184, - "numforecasters": 117, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0 but less than 140.0, Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive, More than 150.0" - }, - { - "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:44.212Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 288, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:29.630Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 368, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2210-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-the-philippines", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Various familiar names are in the race to be the next president of the Philippines, scheduled for 9 May 2022 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/the-philippine-opposition-tries-to-push-back-against-authoritarianism), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2021-11-23/investor-s-guide-to-the-2022-philippine-presidential-election), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/28/1058884480/duterte-marcos-and-political-dynasties-in-the-philippine-presidential-election)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Christopher \"Bong\" Go", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr.", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Maria \"Leni\" Robredo", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:47.167Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 278, - "numforecasters": 135, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Christopher \"Bong\" Go, Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr., Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno, Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao, Maria \"Leni\" Robredo, Another candidate" - }, - { - "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:01:36.391Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 174, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/372-will-china-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-feature-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. Related questions. This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period August 2021 through March 2022. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a variation on this question with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment. Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea appear to be the hot battleground. In its Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba.\" In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands.\"Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizure involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Question format. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.***\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:31.545Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 341, - "numforecasters": 98, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Right On Time by Brandi Carlile win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-5", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Right On Time by Brandi Carlile has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 11238 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8379/nuclear-weapon-with-yield-above-30-mt-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01, the following two conditions are met:\n1-- \nAt least two credible sources (major governments, scientific associations, or intelligence services) claim that a country most likely has a nuclear weapon with a yield above 30 MT. This weapon may be stockpiled or deployed (but not in development, for example).\n2-- \nNo two independent credible sources with ability to evaluate such a claim contest / deny this claim. Media reports will be counted only to the extent that they reference to such a credible source; news organizations themselves cannot be expected to have means of evaluating such a claim on their own. In the case that there is significant disagreement between these claims Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, make a judgement about the credibility of these claims, or resolve ambiguously.\nThe Russian Poseidon/Status-6 device, for example, could resolve this question positively if it met these two conditions.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the country has only one such weapon, and even if it has such a weapon sometime before 2030 but no longer has such a weapon at the start of 2030 (e.g., if it test detonates, offensively detonates, or dismantles the weapon before then).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:07.847Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 43, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a bill enacting **paid parental leave** become law by the end of March?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/PLEAVE-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If a bill enacting paid parental leave becomes law between Issuance and March 31, 2022, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No. Please see PLEAVE in Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including the definition of paid parental leave and many examples of what constitutes such a bill. All market participants should familiarize themselves with these legally binding rules before trading on the market.\n\nThe Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event represented at the Underlying that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion (i.e. a bill enacting paid parental leave becoming law reported by Congress.gov), the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data (Congress.gov updates) for March 31, 2022, and April 07, 2022. . The resolution source is: Bills that have become law between Issuance and March 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 3, - "yes_ask": 4, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 12788 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:22.803Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 283, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by June 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-june-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to June 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.795239568132693752304579904464177", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.204760431867306247695420095535823", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "16", - "liquidity": "1000.00", - "tradevolume": "2682.05", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Colombia?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2209-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-colombia", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "With President Iván Duque Márquez term limited, the race to be the next president of Colombia is wide open ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/latin-america-is-in-danger-of-going-back-to-the-old-normal), [Americas Quarterly](https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-colombia), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/candidate-feared-by-investors-leads-colombian-presidential-poll)). The first round of Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for 29 May 2022, with a runoff scheduled for 19 June 2022, if needed.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sergio Fajardo", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Juan Manuel Galán", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alejandro Gaviria", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Federico Gutiérrez", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rodolfo Hernández", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gustavo Petro", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:55.450Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, - "numforecasters": 92, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sergio Fajardo, Juan Manuel Galán, Alejandro Gaviria, Federico Gutiérrez, Rodolfo Hernández, Gustavo Petro, Another candidate" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.\nWill Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:08:47.694Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 122, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:24.453Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 104486 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:16:35.898Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 203, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:03:43.207Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 136, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Josh Shapiro", - "probability": 0.9702970297029703, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sara Innamorato", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Torsella", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:11.708Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 11689 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Shapiro, Sara Innamorato, Joe Torsella, Jim Kenney" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7595/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Connecticut-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:26.954Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 12820 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:29:04.721Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:33.651Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 200, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8945/google-blocks-3rd-party-cookies-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target advertisements, which privacy advocates like the [Electronic Frontier Foundation](https://www.eff.org/pages/privacy-badger) object to.\nIn June 2021, [Google planned](https://blog.google/products/chrome/updated-timeline-privacy-sandbox-milestones/) to replace third party cookies with Google Analytics’ own system: [Federated Learning of Cohorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_Learning_of_Cohorts) (FLoC). This will allow advertisers to target users based on behaviour, but will prevent them from tracking users across sites.\nWill Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google releases an updated version of chrome which blocks third-party cookies by default before January 1, 2024. This version must be the on the main branch, not a beta version or [chromium](https://www.chromium.org/) version. Resolution may come from credible media reports.\nFor this question, “Third party cookie” refers to a cookie set by javascript code that does not belong to the site the user is visiting. This question will resolve if third-party cookies are blocked by default on Chrome; it is irrelevant if Google implements FLoC or any other advertising mechanism by 2024.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:20:33.320Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2243-before-1-january-2023-will-north-korea-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000-km", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/what-do-we-know-about-north-koreas-missiles/a-60360966), [38 North](https://www.38north.org/2022/01/another-north-korean-hypersonic-missile/)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:43.927Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, - "numforecasters": 65, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:42:17.219Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 406, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Mozambique in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Mozambique is Nyussi, who has been in power for 6.2 years. Mozambique has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0093092", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9906908, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Mozambique", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nyussi", - "month_risk": "0.0021676", - "annual_risk": "0.0093092", - "risk_change_percent": "0.17", - "regime_years": "46", - "leader_years": "6.166667", - "country_code": "MOZ", - "country_abb": "MZM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.\nWill one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:09:51.591Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 159, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9415/hillary-clinton-to-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.\nWill Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?\nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:38:44.167Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-07T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:27:27.095Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Greg Abbott", - "probability": 0.8971962616822429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Allen West", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chad Prather", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew McConaughey", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Crenshaw", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Straus", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George P. Bush", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Patrick", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Don Huffines", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:54.106Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 734373 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Allen West, Chad Prather, Matthew McConaughey, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick, Don Huffines" - }, - { - "title": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025-01-20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8523/irs-designates-crypto-miners-brokers-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.\nThe bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.\nSurprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained.\nWill Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025-01-20?\nThe question will resolve positively if, by 2025-01-20, miners, cryptocurrency developers, node operators, or validators (under proof-of-stake blockchains) are required to issue tax reports (such as 1099s) to the parties of the transactions they mediate. This will resolve positively if this requirement is effective under US law (though compliance or enforcement of this law need not actually occur to resolve positively). This may resolve positively even if this provision is not part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but it is part of some future legislation signed before 2025-01-20.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:57:24.646Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 20, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-22T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Donald J Trump, Ron Desantis, or Mike Pence", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A183", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will more people ride the **subway in New York City** on average this week than last week?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MTA-031", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,233,730 for the week ending February 06 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see MTA in the Rulebook for details.\n\nThe Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for February 06, 2022, or February 13, 2022. The Last Trading Time will always be 11:59 PM ET on February 06, 2022.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 86, - "yes_ask": 89, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 2156 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\nThe speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\nFormer President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\nTrump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.\nWill Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15th 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:09:20.112Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 208, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:13.444Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 274, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **filibuster** be weakened by February 14?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FBUSTER-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the U.S. Senate changes its rules or precedent to lower the threshold for cloture for any legislative action by February 14, 2022 whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn, then the Contract resolve to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No. Changes to reconciliation rules are not included. Please see FBUSTER in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: U.S. Senate rules and precedent according to Senate.gov or Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 1, - "yes_ask": 2, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 76516 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the next UK General Election take place after the Election on the 12th December 2019?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249197", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or on Jan 1 2024. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.060427608891718394, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.19550108759085363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.7440713035174279, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 45208.36 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later" - }, - { - "title": "Will **New York City public schools** be fully open on February 7, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NYSCHL-002", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If New York City public schools are fully open on February 07, 2022, then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see NYSCHL in the Rulebook for the legally binding rules and regulations, including a complete definition of \"fully open\". All market participants should fully read and understand these rules before trading. \"Reopening plans\" refers to any plan about when students can and cannot attend school in person.. The resolution source is: The opening plans of the New York City public school district (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.010000000000000009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 97, - "yes_ask": 99, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 23850 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:48:53.828Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 146, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2090932113775273459292473888540454", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7909067886224726540707526111459546", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "231", - "liquidity": "15498.32", - "tradevolume": "40958.69", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7590/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:17.811Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 18097 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic attorney general nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7682/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Rochelle Garza", - "probability": 0.48672566371681414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Jaworski", - "probability": 0.327433628318584, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lee Merritt", - "probability": 0.09734513274336282, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Fields", - "probability": 0.08849557522123894, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:05.687Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 3321 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rochelle Garza, Joe Jaworski, Lee Merritt, Mike Fields" - }, - { - "title": "Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is complementary to another on the [legality of Bitcoin](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/). Measuring legality requires a cluster of angles.\nWill it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?\nQuestion resolves positively if at any point before January 1st, 2030, there exist an IRS publication at [irs.gov](http://irs.gov), that explains or gives instructions on how to pay taxes to the IRS with Bitcoin.\n1-- \nSome crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n2-- \nThere is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n3-- \nIt can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n4-- \nThere is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:17:53.578Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Joe Biden's approval rating** be greater than 40.5% on February 04, 2022? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-021", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than 40.5% at 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 87, - "yes_ask": 94, - "spread": 7, - "shares_volume": 9246 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8034/hen-caging-prohibition-bill-becomes-uk-law/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051) is a bill introduced by Henry Smith, the Conservative Party MP for Crawley, to the House of Commons in a Ten Minute Rule speech [on 22nd September 2021](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-09-22/debates/3E79001A-C8B4-4DD7-8877-DC8A1E15DD2D/HenCaging%28Prohibition%29). If passed, the bill will prohibit the use of cages for egg-laying hens.\nFollowing its first reading, there was no opposition to printing as a bill and [to a second reading](https://thehumaneleague.org.uk/article/the-latest-news-on-our-fight-against-cages), which is scheduled for 22nd October 2021.\nWill the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?\nThis resolves positively if the Hen Caging (Prohibition) Bill introduced by Henry Smith receives Royal Assent and becomes law in the 2021-22 parliamentary session, recorded on the official [Parliamentary Bills website](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:36:45.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected to be the Democratic Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Democratic Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.3591855751577571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.25861361411358513, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.07183711503155142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.013611242848083427, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04618100252028306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Garcetti", - "probability": 0.014367423006310285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gavin Newsom", - "probability": 0.017240907607572343, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cory Booker", - "probability": 0.014367423006310285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.043102269018930855, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Bloomberg", - "probability": 0.006805621424041714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Ossoff", - "probability": 0.003007135047832385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.007183711503155142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Klobuchar", - "probability": 0.029387910694725582, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.0061574670027044085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Katie Porter", - "probability": 0.0033155591553023734, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.040408377205247675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gretchen Whitmer", - "probability": 0.004310226901893086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tulsi Gabbard", - "probability": 0.010775567254732714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ayanna Pressley", - "probability": 0.001306129364210026, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jamaal Bowman", - "probability": 0.0014367423006310285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.0036944802016226448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Beto O Rourke", - "probability": 0.0024866693664767803, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.0012930680705679257, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill Gates", - "probability": 0.0014367423006310285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rashida Tlaib", - "probability": 0.0014367423006310285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tammy Duckworth", - "probability": 0.0015035675239161925, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Rice", - "probability": 0.006465340352839628, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.0036944802016226448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Polis", - "probability": 0.002938791069472558, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "J.B. Pritzker", - "probability": 0.008081675441049535, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dwayne Johnson", - "probability": 0.014367423006310285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 250532.81 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Eric Garcetti, Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, Michelle Obama, Michael Bloomberg, John Ossoff, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Katie Porter, Hillary Clinton, Gretchen Whitmer, Tulsi Gabbard, Ayanna Pressley, Jamaal Bowman, Nina Turner, Beto O Rourke, Andrew Cuomo, Bill Gates, Rashida Tlaib, Tammy Duckworth, Susan Rice, Eric Adams, Jared Polis, J.B. Pritzker, Dwayne Johnson" - }, - { - "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:25:34.492Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 136, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many votes to confirm Robert Califf as FDA commissioner by April 15?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7700/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Robert-Califf-as-FDA-commissioner-by-April-15", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Robert Califf (the \"Nominee\") to be Commissioner of Food and Drugs at the Department of Health and Human Services (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"46 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"63 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "46 or fewer", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "47 or 48", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "49 or 50", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "51 or 52", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "53 or 54", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "55 or 56", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "57 or 58", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "59 or 60", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "61 or 62", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "63 or more", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:59.336Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 2969 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:19.866Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 91, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\nI'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\nnotany replied,\n@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.\nWill Trump flee the United States?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:25:56.931Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 183, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7704/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.9019607843137255, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.09803921568627451, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:09.303Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 4156 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8848/brazilian-export-ban-on-soybeansricemaize-/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Brazilian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Brazil, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or both of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of soybeans or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Brazilian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:02.678Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7382/non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))\nThe question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nWill the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?\nWe will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)) for resolution.\nThis question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.\nThis question resolves negatively if otherwise.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.\n", + "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -13907,2149 +46149,54 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:11:02.549Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:57:16.683Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 415, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:12:30.441Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 84, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:08.436Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 454, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7829/us-state-to-overturn-election-result-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/) \nIn US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which is the date 6 days prior to the meeting of the electoral college, when the president is officially elected.\nIn 2020, there were numerous efforts at the state level in a number of states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, to change the result from the result projected by major news organisations, often alleging that voter fraud had resulted in Joe Biden's victory. None of these were ultimately successful.\nIn the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?\nThis question resolves positively if any US state (including DC and districts of states) officially submits results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline (currently, December 10th, 2024) that are different from the projected winner of that state according to at least 6 of the following news desks: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, and the NYT.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:15.991Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 53, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-10T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will FINNEAS win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-4", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If FINNEAS has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 23928 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:32:38.971Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 314, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.\nWill Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:24:23.559Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-12T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:18:28.192Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 253, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:20:56.686Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 543, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20%28NHANES%29%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:09:02.677Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2241-will-kassym-jomart-tokayev-either-flee-kazakhstan-or-cease-to-be-its-president-before-7-july-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-almaty-9da42330ca51c36fe9fd88f9ef35ff4e), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59880166), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/588318-kazakhstan-government-resigns-as-demonstrators-set-fire-to-capital)). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:47.925Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 274, - "numforecasters": 143, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lucas Kunce", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Sifton", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Quinton Lucas", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Koster", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Nixon", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Williams", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:26.546Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 41793 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucas Kunce, Scott Sifton, Quinton Lucas, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Brian Williams" - }, - { - "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:54.344Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 171, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7718/Who-will-be-the-next-Supreme-Court-nominee", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual nominated by the President, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 26, 2022, to the position of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. It is not necessary for the nominee to be confirmed by the Senate in order for the associated contract to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "K. Brown Jackson", - "probability": 0.5384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "J. Michelle Childs", - "probability": 0.19658119658119658, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Leondra Kruger", - "probability": 0.1282051282051282, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "C. Jackson-Akiwumi", - "probability": 0.025641025641025637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Wilhelmina Wright", - "probability": 0.017094017094017092, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "L. Abrams Gardner", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sherrilyn Ifill", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tiffany Cunningham", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ojetta Thompson", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eunice Lee", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "D. Holley-Walker", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Melissa Murray", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anita Earls", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Holly Thomas", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arianna Freeman", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:53.047Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1444505 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "K. Brown Jackson, J. Michelle Childs, Leondra Kruger, C. Jackson-Akiwumi, Wilhelmina Wright, L. Abrams Gardner, Sherrilyn Ifill, Tiffany Cunningham, Ojetta Thompson, Eunice Lee, Kamala Harris, D. Holley-Walker, Melissa Murray, Anita Earls, Holly Thomas, Arianna Freeman" - }, - { - "title": "How many votes to confirm Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair by March 31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7678/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Jerome-Powell-as-Federal-Reserve-chair-by-March-31", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jerome Powell (the \"Nominee\") to be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\"). \nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.1485148514851485, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.18811881188118812, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.19801980198019803, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.1782178217821782, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:50.711Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 27505 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will US average new COVID-19 cases ever **fall below March 2020 levels** in 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-002", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 11,790 for a single day between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for December 31, 2022, or 10:00 AM on January 05, 2023.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 77, - "yes_ask": 78, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 19132 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q2 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q2-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1526673600019980432970698548807166", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8473326399980019567029301451192834", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "34", - "liquidity": "1884.40", - "tradevolume": "1129.10", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/168-when-will-1-billion-people-in-india-receive-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of December 20, 2021, 829 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row in the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.For time series data, see Our World in Data. Underlying data from Our World in Data is here.*** \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:32.273Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 696, - "numforecasters": 165, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:14.895Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 58298 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Monaco in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Monaco is Albert, who has been in power for 15.9 years. Monaco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 110 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0037159", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9962841, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Monaco", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Albert", - "month_risk": "0.0002899", - "annual_risk": "0.0037159", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "110", - "leader_years": "15.91667", - "country_code": "MCO", - "country_abb": "MNC" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:07:48.173Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 76, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:21:23.742Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 150, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9492/israeli-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003. \nWill Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:43:17.586Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7871/female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Fields Medal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fields_Medal) is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 [International Congress of Mathematicians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Congress_of_Mathematicians). In 2014, the late [Maryam Mirzakhani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Mirzakhani) became the first female Fields Medalist. [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Medal in 2022.\nWill there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?\nThis question resolve to yes if reliable media reports indicate that a woman won the Fields Medal at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:50.644Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:48:58.638Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 115, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9525/singapore-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:44:41.419Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nRoe established the individual right to abortion in 1973 during the first 2 trimesters of a pregnancy (approximately 2 weeks). Roe was later altered in [Planned Parenthood v. Casey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey), reducing the individual's right to abortion to when it is not viable to safely deliver the fetus, which is commonly around 24 weeks of pregnancy, though the earliest patient to survive an early-term birth was born at 21 weeks and 5 days. Casey also found that states may not pass laws placing an undue burden for \"the purpose or effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus\"\nWill Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between July 1 2018 to July 31 2028, the [US Supreme Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients, or the revocation of medical or professional licenses. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n[Dec 10, 2021] casens -- This question's resolution text has been altered, see the fine print for the original.\nBefore Dec 10, 2021, the question's resolution terms were as follows:\nWe specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,\n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\nAND\n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the le1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\nAND\n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:24.356Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 935, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs control Senate in 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A153", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8843/-of-plant-based-beef---of-conventional-beef/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America. \nHowever, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods. \nAs plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products. \nAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices.\nWill the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef before April 22, 2023. Prices should be calculated in US dollars, unadjusted for inflation. \nThe average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef ([using their 12 ounce pack](https://impossiblefoods.com/products/burger/12-oz-pack)) and Beyond Meat ground beef ([using their Beef Bulk Pack](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/beyond-beef-six-pack?variant=beef). If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.\nWe are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).\nIf either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.\nConventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm) (the \"U.S. city average\" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:14:31.173Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 59, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions. Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?\nResolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.\nPreferred source: [ClinCalc Drug Stats database](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/About.aspx). If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the [Medical Expenditure Panel Survey](https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/) data from US HHS. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:09:25.288Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 57, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:14.083Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:08.523Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:59.031Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 340, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8994/jaedon-whyte-on-us-imo-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier math competition for high school competitions. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times. Recently, the teams have been largely Asian American. As of yet no Black American has represented the USA at the IMO.\nJaedon Whyte [won the USA Mathematical Olympiad in 2021](https://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/pdf/AMC/usamo/2021/2021%20USAMO%20Winners.pdf) and [got a silver medal at the Romanian Masters in Mathematics](https://rmms.lbi.ro/rmm2021/index.php?id=results_math). He will graduate from [Archimedean Upper Conservatory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedean_Upper_Conservatory), a public charter high school, [in 2022.](https://ideamath.education/landing/staff)\nWill Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if by the resolve date if Jaedon Whyte qualifies for the USA IMO team, as reported by [the official IMO website.](http://imo-official.org/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:23:31.603Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 10, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in China in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of China is Xi Jinping, who has been in power for 8.3 years. China has a party regime type which has lasted for 72 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0011269", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9988731, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "China", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Xi Jinping", - "month_risk": "0.0001107", - "annual_risk": "0.0011269", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "72", - "leader_years": "8.333333", - "country_code": "CHN", - "country_abb": "CHN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8754/date-usukeu-ok-omicron-specific-booster/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nSome have [suggested](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820) that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may have to be updated to target the Omicron variant in particular, given that its [unique constellation of mutations](https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923) may result in [lower](https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085) vaccine- and infection-elicited antibody neutralization. Vaccine producers including Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen, and Novavax have [said](https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1464225637590310938) they are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Moderna has announced it is [advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2).\nWill the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?\nThis question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements), UK [MHRA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), or EU [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news-events) authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023. \nAn Omicron-specific booster must be specially formulated to specifically target the genetic sequence of the Omicron variant.\nThe booster dose formulation can also include formulations that target other variants (e.g., Delta) so long as the Omicron variant is specifically targeted as well. \nMulti-valent booster candidates, such those [being developed by Moderna](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2), would count toward positive resolution so long as they target at least 8 spike mutations that Omicron has accrued relative to the original Wuhan-Hu-1 sequence. In the case of Moderna, this would mean that: the mRNA-1273.211 multi-valent candidate that targets 4 of Omicron's spike mutations would not count toward positive resolution, while the mRNA-1273.213 multi-valent candidate that targets 8 of Omicron's spike mutations would count.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:11:20.208Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 443, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:07.039Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 94, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ds win 51 or more Senate seats in 2022 Senate election", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A164", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9163/trump-back-on-twitter-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Donald Trump was famously banned by Twitter [on 8th January 2021](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension) and [other social media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_use_by_Donald_Trump#2021) such as Facebook. There has since been some talk of letting him back on social media, [Facebook decided to keep the ban for 2 years](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/facebook-says-donald-trump-to-remain-banned-from-platform-for-2-years-effective-from-jan-7.html). Twitter changed CEO recently, and this could potentially impact decisions.\nWill Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has an official [Twitter](https://twitter.com/) account for his personal use (not managed by his staff), and is publicly recognized by Twitter (that is, not an evasion of his ban or against the Twitter terms of service).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:31:59.855Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6237623762376238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.37623762376237624, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:03.103Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 69067 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:44:29.660Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 93, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8127/nuclear-detonation-on-a-capital-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting)).\nWill there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there is at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city. It resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 but none of the detonations meet that criterion. It resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation after this question opens and before 2024.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:39:50.394Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.\nWill the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the United States of America has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:55.883Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Spain have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Italy on March 1st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-spain-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-italy-on-march-1st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spain has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Italy on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2087267058132418846912620125330431", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7912732941867581153087379874669569", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "51", - "liquidity": "941.66", - "tradevolume": "1335.33", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Cuba in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Cuba is Raul Castro, who has been in power for 13.1 years. Cuba has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 62 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0120676", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9879324, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Cuba", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Raul Castro", - "month_risk": "0.0007011", - "annual_risk": "0.0120676", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "62", - "leader_years": "13.08333", - "country_code": "CUB", - "country_abb": "CUB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's December meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-013", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's December 14, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their December 14, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 83, - "yes_ask": 85, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 5274 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Republic of the Congo is Nguesso, who has been in power for 23.4 years. Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 23 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0195577", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9804423, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Republic of the Congo", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nguesso", - "month_risk": "0.0044935", - "annual_risk": "0.0195577", - "risk_change_percent": "0.31", - "regime_years": "23", - "leader_years": "23.41667", - "country_code": "COG", - "country_abb": "CON" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8649/alien-origin-of-interstellar-object-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The first discovered interstellar object (1I`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent [extraterrestrial](https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358274551) civilization. While the majority of the scientific community believes that `Oumuamua originated through [natural](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0816-x) astrophysical processes, the formation mechanism of such objects remains unknown. This question is part of a fortified essay on interstellar objects.\nBy 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least two of the following agencies (or their successors) releases a statement that confirms an extraterrestrial, intelligent origin of an interstellar object in our Solar System.\n---United States Department of Defense (Space Force, Air Force, etc.) \n---NASA \n---European Space Agency (ESA) \n---Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) \n---Roscosmos \n---Chinese National Space Administration \nFor the purposes of this question, an \"interstellar object\" will be defined as an object with the \"I\" [designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) by the [Minor Planet Center ](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/), or as an object with an origin outside the solar system according to major government space agencies.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:06:08.391Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2063-07-02T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Arizona Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mark Brnovich", - "probability": 0.42592592592592593, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Blake Masters", - "probability": 0.3055555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Ducey", - "probability": 0.12962962962962962, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Lamon", - "probability": 0.046296296296296294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mick McGuire", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andy Biggs", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paul Gosar", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kelli Ward", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kirk Adams", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kimberly Yee", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Martha McSally", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Justin Olson", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:48.787Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 278535 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Brnovich, Blake Masters, Doug Ducey, Jim Lamon, Mick McGuire, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Kelli Ward, Kirk Adams, Kimberly Yee, Martha McSally, Justin Olson" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Zambia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Zambia is Lungu, who has been in power for 6.2 years. Zambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 9 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0222465", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9777535, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Zambia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lungu", - "month_risk": "0.0008375", - "annual_risk": "0.0222465", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "9", - "leader_years": "6.166667", - "country_code": "ZMB", - "country_abb": "ZAM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:46:31.074Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:02.932Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 210, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7250/ban-on-genetically-unmodified-humans/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with.\nBy the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2100, any jurisdiction passes any law(s) requiring all births to eliminate or promote certain gene(s) through gene editing techniques. \"Gene editing techniques\" means here [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing), or any techniques which directly and selectively modify targeted genes. The genetic engineering techniques may occur at any time in the individual's lifespan, including before birth, after birth, or before conception. This question will only include jurisdictions which govern a population of at least 1 million people at the time the law is in effect.\nLaws only requiring genetic testing or sterilizing/forbidding reproduction by individuals or couples carrying certain genes are not included for the purposes of this question. Forms of artificial selection such as [embryo selection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation#Embryo_selection), or abortion/[extermination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide) of non-compliant genomes are not included for the purposes of this question.\nTo resolve this question, the relevant law must be enforced for at least one birth. That is, if a law is passed but struck down by a court before it is applied, or if such a law is passed but never enforced, this will not resolve the question. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:53.972Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through February?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7708/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-February", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:19.890Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 91325 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8614/non-state-actor-develops-a-nuke-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group outside a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) develops a nuclear weapon that is in deployable condition (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This will not include cases where a deployable weapon is sold, stolen, or inadvertently lost by a state (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)).\n[Dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:31.978Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:17.781Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 131, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8525/musk-sell-5-of-tesla-stock-by-july-1st-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088) on November 6th 2021,\nMuch is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock.\nDo you support this?\nI will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes\nAs of the time of writing this question, \"Yes\" is winning by 55.6% to 44.4%.\nWill Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if before July 1st 2022 credible media reports that Elon Musk has sold more than 5% of his Tesla shares, as compared to the number of shares he owned at the time of his Twitter poll, after taking into account [stock dilution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_dilution) and [stock splits](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp) which may occur in the meantime. If Musk gains additional shares in the company (eg. by exercising stock options), he will need to sell an additional amount to reach the 5% decrease at the time of the twitter poll.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:57:35.440Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:29.058Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 242, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/", + "title": "Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9188/fourth-vaccine-doses-in-the-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_%28satellite%29)\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n", + "description": "In September 2021, [the UK's health service started its \"booster\" campaign](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra-statement-on-booster-doses-of-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines), offering third jabs of the Covid vaccine to all adults in the UK. \nBut will Covid vaccine boosters become annual events, like flu jabs? [Other forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8728/additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-fda/) have asked that question of the US: this asks it about the UK.\nWill the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if the MHRA authorises a fourth dose for the entire UK adult population before 1 January 2023.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:21.287Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:52.446Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 162, + "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-28T14:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": " GOP impeaches Biden by EOY 2025 if they take the house by EOY 2025", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A209", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-09-01T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Andorra in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Andorra is Espot Zamora, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Andorra has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 39 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0014699", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9985301, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Andorra", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Espot Zamora", - "month_risk": "0.0001244", - "annual_risk": "0.0014699", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "39", - "leader_years": "1.833333", - "country_code": "AND", - "country_abb": "AND" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. On April 14, 2021, Coinbase went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:07.152Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 70, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2184-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-russia-and-ukraine-resulting-in-at-least-three-fatalities-before-15-september-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337), [REF/RL](https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-ukrain-military-threat/31523260.html)). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 November 2021: Cyberattacks would not count.\nNOTE 11 January 2022: The fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:33.027Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 692, - "numforecasters": 216, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:59:05.882Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 185, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7603/variant-of-high-consequence-before-aug-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is [thought](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005395/23_July_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_Delta.pdf) to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n---Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are six VOIs: B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.3. \n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are four VOCs: B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma). \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant that has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are no VOHCs. \nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostics \n---Evidence to suggest a significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nWill the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page before 1 August 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:21:11.092Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 107, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Republican other than Jordan, Mandel, and Renacci", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A86", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:34.005Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 269, - "numforecasters": 52, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bitfinex is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. Their customers' money has been stolen or lost in several incidents.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:01.827Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_%28cryptosystem%29), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n", + "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.6% in January 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-017", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.6% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -16062,62 +46209,274 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:49.423Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 172, + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 23, + "yes_ask": 25, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 3130 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Prince Henry of Wales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Harry,_Duke_of_Sussex) and [Rachel Meghan Markle](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghan,_Duchess_of_Sussex) are members of the [British royal family](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_royal_family) and the current [Duke and Duchess of Sussex](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Sussex). They were married in 2018.\nWill the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?\nThis question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:34.812Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 178, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In France, where is inflation heading (year-on-year)?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "This question starts on October 1, 2021, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the year-on-year inflation rate reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, according to the data (even provisional ones) published by the French national institute for statistics and economic studies (INSEE) in this chart: [https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3530258?sommaire=3530679&q=ipc](https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3530258?sommaire=3530679&q=ipc) ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "≥ 2.5%", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "≤ 1.5%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.971Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ 2.5%, ≤ 1.5%" - }, - { - "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/", + "title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2024 is larger than one hundred. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2024, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2024. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nResolution criteria will come from credible sources as of January 31, 2024.\nSee also\n---[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/) \nn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", + "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:11.606Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:16.824Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 69, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Finland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Finland is Sanna Marin, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Finland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0014357", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9985643, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Finland", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Sanna Marin", + "month_risk": "0.0001176", + "annual_risk": "0.0014357", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "21", + "leader_years": "1.25", + "country_code": "FIN", + "country_abb": "FIN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Chad in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Chad is Deby, who has been in power for 30.3 years. Chad has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0723706", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9276294, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Chad", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Deby", + "month_risk": "0.0048578", + "annual_risk": "0.0723706", + "risk_change_percent": "0.06", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "30.25", + "country_code": "TCD", + "country_abb": "CHA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Nauru in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Nauru is Aingimea, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Nauru has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 53 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0072989", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9927011, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Nauru", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Aingimea", + "month_risk": "0.0020364", + "annual_risk": "0.0072989", + "risk_change_percent": "0.16", + "regime_years": "53", + "leader_years": "1.583333", + "country_code": "NRU", + "country_abb": "NAU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Gabon in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Gabon is Ondimba, who has been in power for 11.4 years. Gabon has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 61 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0183526", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9816474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Gabon", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ondimba", + "month_risk": "0.0024846", + "annual_risk": "0.0183526", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.03", + "regime_years": "61", + "leader_years": "11.41667", + "country_code": "GAB", + "country_abb": "GAB" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8726/flu-season-in-next-decade-worse-than-2009-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWill any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?\nThis will resolve positively if the weekly peak percent ILI exceeds 14.0% at any point before 2032 according to the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:52.061Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 28, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8150/3000-nonstrategic-weapons-at-end-of-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):\n\"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield. \n[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow.\"\nThe Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). It's therefore not clear precisely how many nonstrategic weapons there are, but it's clear that it's below 3000.\nThe [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that \"Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today\" (as of 2019). FAS estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273).\nHow many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk.\nWill there be >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the most recent estimates available on 12-31-23 from the FAS, across various sources, indicate that there are >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons on 12-31-23. (One way this could occur is if multiple [\"Nuclear Notebook\"](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/) columns on individual countries' nuclear forces each give estimates of those countries' numbers of nonstrategic nuclear warheads, with these estimates summing to >3000.) This includes warheads that are deployed, are in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact. \nIf FAS do not publish in 2023 estimates of the number of nonstrategic weapons possessed in total or at least by the US and Russia, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:30.968Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -16129,692 +46488,311 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "title": "Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2227-before-1-december-2022-will-the-world-tennis-association-wta-announce-the-lifting-of-its-suspension-of-wta-tournaments-in-china-and-hong-kong", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After tennis star Peng Shuai accused a high-ranking Chinese political official of sexual assault on social media and was subsequently hidden from public view, the WTA announced the immediate suspension of all WTA tournaments in China, including Hong Kong, in concern for her safety ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/12/01/1060578989/peng-shuai-wta-tournaments-china-suspended), [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/2384758/steve-simon-announces-wta-s-decision-to-suspend-tournaments-in-china), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/32763277/wta-suspends-tournament-play-china-concern-peng-shuai-safety)). When the lifting of the suspension would take effect is immaterial, and a partial lifting would count. For the purposes of this question, Macau is considered a part of China.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:57:11.280Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:28.324Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 375, + "numforecasts": 119, + "numforecasters": 65, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:00.597Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/", + "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", + "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:59.926Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:37.038Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 532, + "numforecasts": 1363, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/", + "title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7819/afghanistan-based-anti-nato-terrorism-by-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n", + "description": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks.\nWill Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event that both of the below are true, based on credible media reports: \n1--A terrorist attack that kill at least 10 people has been conducted against a NATO nation by December 31, 2026. Such an attack must occur outside of Afghanistan. \nAND\n2--This terrorist attack was carried out by: \n------A member of the Afghan Taliban, or \n------A member of any terrorist organization funded, supported, or protected by the Afghan Taliban. \n--- \nResolution will be based on credible media reports of a determination by any of the below entities: \n------The United States federal government \n------NATO \n------The European Union \n--- \nIf one or more such attacks have not been confirmed by any of the above entities, then this question will resolve negatively.\n1-- \nAn attack will be considered \"against a NATO nation\" if it occurs within a NATO nation's internationally recognized borders, or is deliberately targeted towards a NATO nation's government facilities or personnel overseas (e.g. embassy or military base) outside of Afghanistan. A terrorist attack within a non-NATO nation that is not targeted at a NATO nation's government facility or personnel (e.g. an attack on a sports stadium in India that incidentally kills >10 NATO nationals) will not be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. \n2-- \nIf the attacks result in the deaths of the attackers, such as in a suicide bombing, those deaths will not count towards the resolution criteria, even if the attackers are citizens of a NATO nation. \n3-- \nWhat counts as a \"terrorist organization\" will be determined by the US federal government, NATO, or the European Union. \n4-- \nIn the event that NATO ceases to exist by the resolution date, the question will resolve negatively if no such attack occurs prior to NATO's dissolution.\n5-- \nAny terrorist attacks that occur while the Taliban are not in control of Afghanistan will not trigger a positive resolution. The Taliban will be considered in control of Afghanistan if they control either Kabul or a majority (18+ / 34) [provincial capitals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:13.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 53, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-06-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/396-how-will-the-combined-annual-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-change-over-the-next-three-years", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about revenue over a six-month period—forecasting the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. ***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.*** \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:28.728Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 222, + "numforecasters": 86, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" + }, + { + "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:17.732Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 153, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/) \n---[Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\nWill a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the most recent figures from before the beginning of the civil war from figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:00:11.732Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 120, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Russia from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:54.234Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will either Sinema or Manchin leave the Democratic Party by March 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7554/Will-either-Sinema-or-Manchin-leave-the-Democratic-Party-by-March-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, either Senator Kyrsten Sinema or Senator Joe Manchin definitively and unconditionally withdraws from the Democratic Party. The participation or membership of both Senators in the Senate Democratic Caucus shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to No. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:12.228Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 211855 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?\nThis question will resolve positively if Zvi and Holden's [Bet about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) is not won by either Zvi or Holden, by mutual agreement between the two parties. That is, if the bet is called off, if the “push” clause on post-Omicron strain(s) “muddying the waters” is triggered, or there is not agreement between Zvi and Holden about the winner of the bet, then this question will resolve positively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by September 1, 2023, this question will resolve positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:29:57.111Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-09T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:54:23.490Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 123, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:49.479Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 125, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **USD/Mexican peso exchange rate** be above 21 on February 4?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FOREX-002", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Federal Reserve's H.10 report reports that the conversion between the U.S. dollar and Mexican peso on February 04, 2022 is above 21, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FOREX in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. Please note that the data is from the Federal Reserve and represents the noon buying rate on the date in question.\n\nData is expected to be released at 4:15 PM on February 7, 2022. The market will close at 4:10 that day. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data or February 18, 2022. . The resolution source is: The foreign exchange rate of the Mexican peso with the U.S. dollar on February 04, 2022 according to the Federal Reserve’s H.10 weekly release. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 3, - "yes_ask": 6, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 8340 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:26:29.026Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:27.260Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2069-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In 2021, will the European Union include nuclear energy in its \"taxonomy\" of green energies?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "The EU's [Sustainable Finance Taxonomy](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/200309-sustainable-finance-teg-final-report-taxonomy_en.pdf), aka the \"green taxonomy\", is a project for the European classification of low-carbon or transitional economic activities designed to guide investments. ", + "title": "By 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8341/aclu-argues-against-free-speech-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Recently, some commenters [have](https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1303352142866993154) [criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/opinion/rbg-aclu-abortion.html) [the ACLU](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html) for abandoning its historic stance in favor of free speech. On 2021-10-17, journalist Glenn Greenwald [predicted](https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1449740659036983308) this on twitter:\nI really believe that within 18-24 months, ACLU - either a state affiliate or the national group - will argue in court that hate speech is outside 1st Amendment protections because it infringes the rights of marginalized groups.\nHistorically, laws regulating [hate speech in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_speech_in_the_United_States) have been found to violate the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech.\nBy 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2024-01-01, any part of the ACLU (either a state affiliate or the national group) argues in any court that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment protections of Freedom of Speech. \"Arguing in Court\" here means providing direct aid in a court, not merely filing an amicus brief or making public statements. \"Hate Speech\" here will mean public speech which is predjudiced or discriminatory towards groups protected by the Fourteenth Amendment, including those defined by disability, race, ethnicity, nationality, national origin, gender, gender identity, or sex.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6435643564356436, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3564356435643565, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:43.149Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:13.420Z", "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 78, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for July 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2168-how-many-job-openings-in-the-us-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-july-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the third consecutive month in August 2021 ([FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retailers-forecast-disappointing-holiday-season-labor-shortage), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-459c0884721a213985cdf0185a1176f8)). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for July 2022, expected in September 2022 ([BLS - JOLTS](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm)). For July 2021, the number of job openings for \"Total US\" was 11,098 (in thousands) ([JOLTS - August 2021](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_10122021.pdf), see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.", "options": [ { - "name": "Fewer than 6 million", - "probability": 0, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4404517562851661192160938779063822", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 11 million", - "probability": 0.06, + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5595482437148338807839061220936178", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:08.168Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 204, - "numforecasters": 110, + "numforecasts": "71", + "liquidity": "3487.60", + "tradevolume": "2008.44", "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6 million, Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive, More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million, Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive, More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million, Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive, More than 11 million" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2221-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 ([Tesla](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPKBV_TSLA_Q3_2021_Quarterly_Update_SI1AKE.pdf)). \nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Fewer than 700,000", - "probability": 0, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "1,900,000 or more", - "probability": 0, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:33.455Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:44.565Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 144, - "numforecasters": 69, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive, More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000, Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive, More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000, 1,900,000 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Ivory Coast in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Ivory Coast is Ouattara, who has been in power for 9.9 years. Ivory Coast has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0105347", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9894653, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Ivory Coast", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ouattara", - "month_risk": "0.0005942", - "annual_risk": "0.0105347", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "10", - "leader_years": "9.916667", - "country_code": "CIV", - "country_abb": "CDI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": ">=53 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A173", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Japanese Breakfast win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-6", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Japanese Breakfast has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 12564 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:21:51.901Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/", + "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n", + "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:15:42.815Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:44.154Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Pakistan from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:09.848Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden gets a new nominee on SCOTUS in 2022 with 1+ GOP vote", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A269", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8130/north-korea-possess-material-for-100-warheads/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads (whether or not those warheads have actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from [the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/).\nFor positive resolution, the mid-point of the estimate needs to be at or above 100. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce approximately 100 warheads\" or \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 80-120 warheads\" would count. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 90-100 warheads\" would not count. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:06.475Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden is 2024 POTUS", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A249", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) \nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:18.184Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 13, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -16842,1718 +46820,18 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "volume": 4586.43 + "volume": 4591.43 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later" }, { - "title": "Will We Are by John Batiste win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-1", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If We Are by John Batiste has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022.\n \nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 9716 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2220-will-the-closing-yield-for-the-us-10-year-treasury-reach-or-exceed-2-25-before-1-july-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:35.509Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 261, - "numforecasters": 109, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the French ambassador return to Australia?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": " ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Septembrer 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "October 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "November 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "December 2021", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Septembrer 2021, October 2021, November 2021, December 2021, Maybe later" - }, - { - "title": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8998/1-us-state-legalizes-a-psychedelic-in-2022/", + "title": "Does P equal BPP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7962/p-versus-bpp/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Oregon become the [first state to decriminalize psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) in November 2020 via a ballot measure. Psilocybin (also known as \"mushrooms\") is also decriminalized in a few cities in the US, but remains a [Schedule I drug federally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances).\nA bill to legalize psilocybin, LSD, and other psychedelics has been [reviewed by the California Senate in August 2021](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB519). Oregon has decriminalized posession of [small doses of LSD](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/oregon-drug-decriminalization-1121763/).\n[MDMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#Legal_status), [mescaline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mescaline#United_States), and [DMT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N,N-Dimethyltryptamine#By_country_and_continent) are Schedule I drugs and are illegal for all purposes federally.\nScott Wiener, California state representative who authored SB-519 to decriminalize psychedelics, [said in February 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-california-bill-would-decriminalize-psychedelics-expunge-criminal-records-n1258261), \"The war on drugs has been a complete failure, It hasn't stopped people from using drugs and it hasn’t stopped addiction.\" Other proponents of decriminalization argue psychedelics have [legitimate uses for medical or psychotheraputic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_therapy).\nWill any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if any state decriminalizes or legalizes any of the following:\n---psilocybin \n---LSD \n---MDMA \n---mescaline \n---DMT \nbetween December 21, 2021 to January 1, 2023 (excluding Oregon's current decriminalization of psilocybin and LSD). This question may also resolve positive if any of the above drugs is reclassified as a [Schedule III, IV, V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_III_controlled_substances) or unrestricted substance federally. Decriminalization or Legalization may be restricted to medical or recreational use, and may be restricted to within a maximum amount/dose.\nThe law may decriminalize/legalize some activities, but not others; that is, the question may resolve positively if any of posession, sale, transport, or production/cultivation are decriminalized, while others remain criminal. [\"Deprioritization\"](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/third-massachusetts-city-approves-psychedelics-decriminalization-measure/), where the substance remains criminalized but is deprioritized for enforcement and prosecution, will not qualify to resolve this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:23:48.108Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Uruguay in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Uruguay is Luis Pou, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Uruguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 36 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0043207", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9956793, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Uruguay", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Luis Pou", - "month_risk": "0.0003646", - "annual_risk": "0.0043207", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "36", - "leader_years": "1", - "country_code": "URY", - "country_abb": "URU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8118/solana-stays-a-top-10-cryptocurrency-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.\nAt time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – [$43b USD](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/) – per [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/). For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is [Polkadot](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/polkadot-new/) (DOT), with $25b USD market cap.\nWill Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?\nPer [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/), Solana (SOL) is ranked within the top-10 cryptocurrencies, as determined by market cap on Dec 31, 2022.\nIf Solana drops below the top-10 at some point before Dec 31, 2022, but is within the top-10 at time of resolution on Dec 31, 2022, then this question still resolves positively. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:39:34.691Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8558/polygamy-legal-in-us-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\nthe state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\nmarriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nPolyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050.\nWill polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if any time between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), polygamy is legal federally and in all states in the United States. Resolution may be provided by credible media reports or official US government sources.\nFor the purposes of this question, the legality of polygamy must be indifferent to sex or gender; that is, it should permit both a marriage of one man with multiple women, one woman with multiple men, or any arrangement of legally recognized sexes/genders. Legally-recognized polygamous marriages must allow at least 3 members to be married, though they need not all share equal rights.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:00:23.238Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T15:08:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8509/will-meta-see-10%25E2%2581%25B9-active-users-by-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people. Will this happen?\n\nContext\n-------\n\n---Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\" \nWill Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?\nThis question resolves positively when Meta Platforms, Inc. (or company which will be a rebranded version of Metaverse) in its Q3 2031 Earnings (or an analogous document) will report one billion or more (), daily active users on its \"screenless\" platforms (AR or VR glasses, holograms, etc. combined).\nFor a more precise definition of technology being \"screenless\" see [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/).\nRelated questions: - [Date when new tech replaces visual screens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:37.165Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine [to nearly 100,000](https://nyti.ms/3GORIEb), according to the New York Times. In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.\nWill Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:17:55.805Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 2244, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:21.582Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 96, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\nToday, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.\nWill US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there is any year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:04:47.914Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 86, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:52:48.489Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 390, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a US-China war by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.\nWill there be a US-China war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[100 deaths from China-US conflict before 2050](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/)\n--- \n[Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:38.694Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 55, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.\nBefore the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:54:18.240Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1016, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:08:09.305Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1085, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:49:41.927Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 163, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8611/china-russia-war-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a China-Russia war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\n--- \n[Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:16.344Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Turkey join the European Union** by June 29, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TEU-0001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Turkey joins the European Union by 6:00 PM ET on June 29, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see TEU in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The list of member countries of the European Union. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 2, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 7084 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:32:17.629Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 199, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:40:40.336Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9513/boris-johnson-charged-with-a-crime-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been accused of allowing and attending parties at 10 Downing Street which went against the rules enacted under the Coronavirus Act. He is also alleged to have lied to Parliament about this and other matters. \nSeparately, there is an [ongoing](https://goodlawproject.org/case/100m-contract/) [scandal](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59968037) regarding government awards of PPE contracts for hundreds of millions of pounds to unqualified persons who were close to the Conservative party. It is possible that offences including misconduct in public office or Bribery Act violations have been committed during this period.\nThere have been a number of additional events which have called Johnson's integrity into question, including the [allegation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56878663) that he concealed evidence from the person investigating who paid for his flat refurbishment. It is possible that he will be charged with a criminal offence over this or other matters.\nWill Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is formally charged with any criminal offence on or before 31st December 2022 (UK time). Note that he doesn't need to be convicted of an offence, only charged. If he is arrested but not charged, this question resolves negatively. \nFor purposes of this question, being formally found in contempt of parliament does not constitute being charged with a crime. \nThis question will resolve positively based on an announcement by any UK police force or the Crown Prosecution Service or any other competent authority that Boris Johnson has been formally charged with any criminal offence. It will also resolve positively if there are widespread reports in credible media that Johnson has been charged with an offence.\nIf Johnson is charged on or before 31st Dec 2022 but the announcement is not made until 2023, the question still resolves positively. I have delayed the resolve date to 8th Jan 2023 to account for this possibility. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:43:53.880Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-30T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-08T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/) (closed) \n[The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the [scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance).The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the [latest assessment from IAEA](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-offers-less-for-more-as-vienna-talks-stall/). [Negotiations resumed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna) in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal. \nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before January 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2023, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. the question will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Iranian governments, or credible media reports.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:17:45.128Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 194, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Sudan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Sudan is Abdelrahman Burhan, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Sudan has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 2 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0639387", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9360613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Sudan", - "regime_type": "Civilian Provisional", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Abdelrahman Burhan", - "month_risk": "0.0065983", - "annual_risk": "0.0639387", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.1", - "regime_years": "2", - "leader_years": "1.916667", - "country_code": "SDN", - "country_abb": "SUD" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:11:52.900Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S. Senate on 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.2815533980582524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "24", - "probability": 0.18446601941747573, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "25", - "probability": 0.1553398058252427, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "26", - "probability": 0.1650485436893204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "27", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "28", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:06.629Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 118903 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "23 or fewer, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2790/self-driving-car-to-beat-a-self-driving-truck-in-making-the-first-cross-usa-trip/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "While self-driving cars could put hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers out of a job, self-driving trucks could leave millions of truck drivers without work. In his book, The War on Normal People, Andrew Yang cites the argument for self-driving trucks to come first:\nJim Scheinman, a venture capitalist at Maven Ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars, says that self-driving trucks will arrive significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier. Highways, the domain of semi trucks, are much less complex than urban areas, with fewer intersections and clearer road markings. And the economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars.\nMorgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering $168 billion per year in saved fuel ($35 billion), reduced labor costs ($70 billion), fewer accidents ($36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization ($27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their $40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year. \nOn the other hand, Elon Musk has suggested that Autopilot will become robust enough to do an [autonomous cross-country roadtrip](https://electrek.co/2019/05/09/self-driving-cross-country-trip-everyone-tesla-this-year-musk/) by the end of the year, although he had made similar promises in [2017 and 2018](https://www.autopilotreview.com/tesla-cross-country-autopilot-2018/):\nWe could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too\n— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) [May 9, 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)\nWill a self-driving car make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?\nThis question will have the same resolution condition as a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/) about self-driving trucks. For resolution, the car or truck must have no safety driver, but need not be commercially available. \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:21.581Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:22:02.480Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:23:59.771Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "DJT runs for POTUS in 2024", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A223", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing value of the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 26 May 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2205-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-turkish-lira-against-the-us-dollar-on-26-may-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The Turkish lira hit record lows in November 2021 amid President Erdogan's economic policies and growing influence over the country's central bank ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-lira-crashes-to-new-low-against-us-dollar-euro/a-59906311), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/turkeys-lira-hits-all-time-low-after-erdogan-rate-remarks)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 8.00", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "16.00 or higher", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:04.425Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 263, - "numforecasters": 56, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 8.00, Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive, Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00, Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive, Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00, 16.00 or higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:52:05.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing. \nWill GB News be broadcasting in 2025?\nGB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of \"GB News\" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025. \nThe ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words \"GB News\" in the channel title.\nThe authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:41:56.002Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 101, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2173-how-many-seats-in-the-national-assembly-will-the-fidesz-party-s-list-win-in-the-next-hungarian-parliamentary-election", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/could-viktor-orban-be-voted-out-of-office), [Budapest Beacon](https://budapestbeacon.com/fidesz-kdnp-announces-joint-national-party-list/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/hungary-viktor-orban-wins-supermajority-for-third-consecutive-term-in-office.html)). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them ([New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/10/why-hungarys-opposition-parties-are-uniting-against-viktor-orban), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/577133-conservative-wins-hungary-opposition-race-as-anti-orban-parties-unite)). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats)", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:59.946Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 203, - "numforecasters": 117, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more), A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats), Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic attorney general nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7694/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Anthony G. Brown", - "probability": 0.6306306306306306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Katie O'Malley", - "probability": 0.33333333333333337, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luke Clippinger", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Feldman", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Frank Kratovil", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "April Delaney", - "probability": 0.00900900900900901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:39.298Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 438 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony G. Brown, Katie O'Malley, Luke Clippinger, Brian Feldman, Frank Kratovil, April Delaney" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from EV-volumes.com whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV & PHEV share for 2020 was 4.2%.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 4.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:00.254Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%" - }, - { - "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:49:14.759Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 83, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit projected created by The Boring Company using Tesla Motors vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers with testing using automated systems [planned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/) later on in 2021. Determination of autonomous operation will use criteria similar to this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/).\nThe LVCC project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. This question will determine if such a feat is being replicated.\nWill TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop <2030?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2030, The Boring Company page indicates two autonomous transit system projects completed outside the Las Vegas Metro area with more than 15 miles each of Tunnels. Each system must demonstrate carrying more than 1000 passengers per day and operate autonomously for over 30 days.\nOperation should be supported by press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Washington Post or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) posted to the discussion section below. If no such articles are posted, this question resolves as no.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:48:53.132Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-02T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-15T22:52:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_%28mathematician%29) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:51.468Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 141, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8779/spacex-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp, doing business as [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), is an American aerospace manufacturer, space transportation services and communications corporation headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. SpaceX manufactures the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, several rocket engines, Dragon cargo and crew spacecraft and Starlink communications satellites.\nIn November 2021, it was [reported that SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk had warned employees that the company \"face[s] genuine risk of bankruptcy if we cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/elon-musk-to-spacex-starships-raptor-engine-crisis-risks-bankruptcy.html) amid struggles in mass-producing Raptor engines for the company's nascent Starship series of launch vehicles.\nWill SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if SpaceX files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date. \nOnly petitions filed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp, or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of SpaceX's business (as judged by moderators) as of November 2021, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:12:24.487Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:32:07.387Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will France have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-france-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if France has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5958552507259518088269026276846344", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4041447492740481911730973723153656", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "106", - "liquidity": "994.25", - "tradevolume": "3511.82", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:23:32.523Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 163, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least one single new pandemic (not SARS-CoV-2 or variants) causes >=0.02% of world population to die within a one year period by EOY 2031", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A142", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-03-26T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 1.9% on February 07, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TNOTE-006", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is above 1.9% on February 07, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see TNOTE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThese par yields are derived from bid-side market price quotations at or near 3:30 PM each trading day.\n\nThe market will expire and close and expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the data release for February 07, 2022, or one week following February 07, 2022.. The resolution source is: The Underlying for this contract is daily Treasury par yield curve rates for 10-year U.S. treasury notes for February 07, 2022 according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 9, - "yes_ask": 12, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 3616 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ethereum reach $3000 by Valentine's Day?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-reach-3000-by-valentines-day", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Ethereum (ETH) is $3000.00 or above at any point within the market time frame as per Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum), and “No” otherwise. \n\nThe market time frame spans from January 31 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET) to February 14 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET).\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2650416018250166016280813570189735", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7349583981749833983719186429810265", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "123", - "liquidity": "1269.31", - "tradevolume": "1906.37", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \nto\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:52:37.777Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 194, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2225-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-pennsylvania-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Republican Party candidate", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:25.902Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 112, - "numforecasters": 77, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else" - }, - { - "title": "Will any national GOP primary poll show someone beating Trump by July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7619/Will-any-national-GOP-primary-poll-show-someone-beating-Trump-by-July-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any national primary poll of likely or registered Republican voters for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is released by a pollster rated \"B\" or higher by fivethirtyeight.com and shows President Donald Trump to be in second place or lower. Qualifying polls must show President Trump as a candidate and be posted to the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator subsequent to the launch of this market on December 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below. A poll that shows Mr. Trump in a tie for first place shall be insufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nAt the time of the launch of this market market, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/, while pollster ratings can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/. For purposes of this market, a rating of \"A/B\" shall be considered to be \"B\" or higher. A rating of \"B/C\" shall not be considered to be \"B\" or higher. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:03.839Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 27692 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was inadvertent, as defined above. If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:05:42.340Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bulgaria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bulgaria is Boiko Borisov, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Bulgaria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0085188", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9914812, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bulgaria", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Boiko Borisov", - "month_risk": "0.0005461", - "annual_risk": "0.0085188", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "3.833333", - "country_code": "BGR", - "country_abb": "BUL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8499/libor-end-date-extension/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.\nIn the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).\nContracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a \"synthetic\" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until 2023-01-01, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from 2023-07-01.\nWill there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by 2023-06-30, [ICE Benchmark Association](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor) announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This will still be the case even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:04.398Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-04T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the most seats in the 2022 Australian federal election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7726/Who-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2022-Australian-federal-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party or listed coalition that wins the highest number of seats in the 2022 election to the Australian House of Representatives. Should two or more such parties or the listed coalition be tied for first place, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition, among those tied, that comes first alphabetically, based on the name provided in the listed contract. \nFor purposes of this market, the contract titled \"Lib-Nat Coalition\" will resolve based upon the combined number of seats won by the Liberal Party of Australia, the Liberal National Party of Queensland (which may be referred to as the Liberal National Party), the National Party of Australia, and the Country Liberal Party. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Labor", - "probability": 0.7383177570093458, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lib-Nat Coalition", - "probability": 0.25233644859813087, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:28.521Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 125 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Labor, Lib-Nat Coalition, Greens" - }, - { - "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:08:19.959Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 548, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9189/liverpool-to-win-the-league-this-year/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Liverpool]() are an association football team in the English [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League), the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. \nAs of the January 5, 2022 [League Table](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. [FiveThiryEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league.\nWill Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?\nThis question will resolve positively if Liverpool are declared winners of the 2021-2022 Premier League. If any other team wins the season, this question will resolve negatively.\nIn the case that the season is cancelled, or for any reason there is no official winner of the season, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:32:41.703Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-07T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-03T23:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_%28structure%29):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:40:51.765Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n", + "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_%28complexity%29). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.\nDoes P equal BPP?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -18566,404 +46844,191 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:17.609Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:31:52.613Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 560, + "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8602/semaglutidecagrilintide-approval-by-2027/", + "title": "Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8754/date-usukeu-ok-omicron-specific-booster/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2821%2900845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.\nWill the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a paired form of semaglutide and cagrilintide (in any ratio) for the treatment of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company. The approved drug may have any ratio of semaglutide and cagrilintide, but may not include any other active ingredient.\n", + "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nSome have [suggested](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820) that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may have to be updated to target the Omicron variant in particular, given that its [unique constellation of mutations](https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923) may result in [lower](https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085) vaccine- and infection-elicited antibody neutralization. Vaccine producers including Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen, and Novavax have [said](https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1464225637590310938) they are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Moderna has announced it is [advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2).\nWill the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?\nThis question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements), UK [MHRA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), or EU [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news-events) authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023. \nAn Omicron-specific booster must be specially formulated to specifically target the genetic sequence of the Omicron variant.\nThe booster dose formulation can also include formulations that target other variants (e.g., Delta) so long as the Omicron variant is specifically targeted as well. \nMulti-valent booster candidates, such those [being developed by Moderna](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2), would count toward positive resolution so long as they target at least 8 spike mutations that Omicron has accrued relative to the original Wuhan-Hu-1 sequence. In the case of Moderna, this would mean that: the mRNA-1273.211 multi-valent candidate that targets 4 of Omicron's spike mutations would not count toward positive resolution, while the mRNA-1273.213 multi-valent candidate that targets 8 of Omicron's spike mutations would count.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:39.463Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:55.302Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 443, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", + "title": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n[Odessa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa) or Odesa, the 3rd largest city in Ukraine, is a strategically-important city on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, whose port receives [over 70%](https://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/ukraine-ports-eye-larger-share-asia-cargo_20190213.html) of Ukraine's containerized cargo and whose naval base houses the bulk of the Ukrainian Navy. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Odessa\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Odessa for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:09.092Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:11.783Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 209, + "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-1-october-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation), [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230)). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/10/algorithms-shouldnt-be-protected-by-section-230-facebook-whistleblower-tells-senate/), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/legislative-efforts-and-policy-frameworks-within-the-section-230-debate/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:20.520Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 226, - "numforecasters": 125, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", + "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nWill humans go extinct by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n", + "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:45.179Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:09.631Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 883, + "numforecasts": 296, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:42.821Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 338, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:32:06.421Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 371, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8897/israel-palestine-peace-talks-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Israeli government has not held direct peace discussions with the Palestinian Authority [since 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%932014_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks). In May 2021 a conflict, mostly centered on the Gaza Strip, [left nearly 300 people dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis). The Israeli government continues to build settlements inside territory of the West Bank, complicating a future two-state solution to the conflict.\nWill Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, there are in-person bilateral or multi-lateral talks between Israel's government and the government of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, according to official announcements by both parties.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:17:50.300Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 151, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:39.650Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 6077 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:30:13.580Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 249, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7528/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Massachusetts. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Geoff Diehl", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Patrick O'Connor", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Lelling", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlie Baker", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Karyn Polito", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:36.673Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 61189 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Geoff Diehl, Patrick O'Connor, Andrew Lelling, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Togo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Lesotho in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Togo is Faure Gnassingbe, who has been in power for 15.8 years. Togo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 58 years", + "description": "The current leader of Lesotho is Majoro, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Lesotho has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.013193", + "probability": "0.0212527", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.986807, + "probability": 0.9787473, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Togo", - "regime_type": "Personal", + "country_name": "Lesotho", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Faure Gnassingbe", - "month_risk": "0.0005614", - "annual_risk": "0.013193", + "leader_name": "Majoro", + "month_risk": "0.0012232", + "annual_risk": "0.0212527", "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "58", - "leader_years": "15.83333", - "country_code": "TGO", - "country_abb": "TOG" + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "0.8333333", + "country_code": "LSO", + "country_abb": "LES" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2040-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-june-2022", + "title": "What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 ([BLS - PPI](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/archived-producer-price-index-detailed-report-information.htm)). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% ([BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-may-2021.pdf), see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Less than 3,800", + "name": "Less than 1.0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "name": "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "More than 4,100 but less than 4,400", - "probability": 0.2, + "name": "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%", + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, + "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "More than 4,700 but less than 5,000", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5,000 or more", - "probability": 0.13, + "name": "More than 5.5%", + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:48.857Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:50.644Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 499, - "numforecasters": 76, + "numforecasts": 206, + "numforecasters": 43, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3,800, Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive, More than 4,100 but less than 4,400, Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive, More than 4,700 but less than 5,000, 5,000 or more" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%" }, { - "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.7% in January 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-018", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.7% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", + "title": "Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2171-between-30-october-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI), [EUR-Lex](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en)). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -18976,782 +47041,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 11, - "yes_ask": 13, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 4060 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4380952380952381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:34.814Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 816629 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bangladesh in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bangladesh is Hasina Wazed, who has been in power for 12.2 years. Bangladesh has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 12 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0037636", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9962364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bangladesh", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hasina Wazed", - "month_risk": "0.0003138", - "annual_risk": "0.0037636", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "12", - "leader_years": "12.16667", - "country_code": "BGD", - "country_abb": "BNG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will NASA land a **person on the Moon** before 2025? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MOON-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If NASA announces that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon before December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see MOON in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the Expiration Time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Press releases from NASA. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 14, - "yes_ask": 17, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 12156 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).\nWill Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?\nA \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n---resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date), \n---lost a confidence vote, \n---lost an election, \n---formally left office, \n---died, \n---been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. \nResolution will be according to reliable published reports.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:37:39.064Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 166, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-13T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:19:15.458Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 534, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.\nWill most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?\nThis question resolves positively if more than 50 of the first 100 babies who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence are born in the People's Republic of China, according to credible reports. If 100 such babies are not born by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it must be the case that the polygenetic selection is done in part for the purpose of increasing the expected intelligence; incidental effects on expected intelligence arising from polygenetic selection or screening for non-intelligence-related traits should not trigger positive resoltion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:32:23.446Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:01:31.027Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 74, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% by 2051?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8572/riedl-bets-cole-about-higher-interest-rates/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\nI'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\nIn [The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051.\nWill Brian Riedl win his bet with Alan Cole regarding the interest rate paid on the federal debt?\nThis resolves positively if Brian Riedl wins the bet and negatively if Alan Cole wins. In the event the bet is not resolved in a timely manner upon apparent satisfaction of the bet terms or a situation appears ambiguous under the terms of the bet, the resolution criteria in the fine print will be used for resolution.\nUnder the relevant conditions described in the resolution criteria above, this resolves positively if the actual average interest rate on federal debt as reported by the CBO exceeds 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051. If the method of calculation of the average interest rate on federal debt is substantially revised prior to resolution this resolves ambiguously. The resolution date for this question is December 31, 2052, any CBO publication prior to that date showing the actual average interest rate on federal debt exceeded 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051 will resolve this question positively. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:00:59.710Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:38:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:38:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2231-how-many-total-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-as-of-1-may-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/19/omicron-variant-doubling-covid-updates/8952895002/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths), parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 900,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 1,275,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:13.501Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 302, - "numforecasters": 101, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 900,000, Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive, More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000, Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive, More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000, Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive, More than 1,275,000" - }, - { - "title": "How many of the 2021 GOP Trump impeachers will be re-elected?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7492/How-many-of-the-2021-GOP-Trump-impeachers-will-be-re-elected", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number or range of the ten Republican members of the House of Representatives who voted in favor of the 2021 impeachment of President Donald Trump who are elected to any district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "0", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "1", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "3", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "4", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "6", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "7", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "8", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "9 or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:04.420Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 118128 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:03.095Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-04T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2202-what-will-be-the-price-of-bitcoin-on-30-november-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 November 2022 (PT) as reported by [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $30,000.00", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$110,000.00 or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:08.904Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 292, - "numforecasters": 108, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30,000.00, Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive, More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00, Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive, More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00, $110,000.00 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Central African Republic in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Central African Republic is Touadera, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Central African Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0214555", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9785445, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Central African Republic", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Touadera", - "month_risk": "0.0007732", - "annual_risk": "0.0214555", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "5", - "leader_years": "5", - "country_code": "CAF", - "country_abb": "CEN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:51.687Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 505, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Ethiopia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Ethiopia is Abiy Ahmed, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Ethiopia has a party regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0149944", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9850056, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Ethiopia", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "month_risk": "0.000649", - "annual_risk": "0.0149944", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "2.916667", - "country_code": "ETH", - "country_abb": "ETH" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2120-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-march-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page ([FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/)). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 40.0%", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 55.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:27.820Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 892, - "numforecasters": 251, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 40.0%, Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive, Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%, Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive, Higher than 55.0%" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bahamas in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bahamas is Hubert Minnis, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Bahamas has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 48 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0027338", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9972662, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bahamas", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hubert Minnis", - "month_risk": "0.0002231", - "annual_risk": "0.0027338", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "48", - "leader_years": "3.833333", - "country_code": "BHS", - "country_abb": "BHM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:45.567Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 307, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2227-before-1-december-2022-will-the-world-tennis-association-wta-announce-the-lifting-of-its-suspension-of-wta-tournaments-in-china-and-hong-kong", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After tennis star Peng Shuai accused a high-ranking Chinese political official of sexual assault on social media and was subsequently hidden from public view, the WTA announced the immediate suspension of all WTA tournaments in China, including Hong Kong, in concern for her safety ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/12/01/1060578989/peng-shuai-wta-tournaments-china-suspended), [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/2384758/steve-simon-announces-wta-s-decision-to-suspend-tournaments-in-china), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/32763277/wta-suspends-tournament-play-china-concern-peng-shuai-safety)). When the lifting of the suspension would take effect is immaterial, and a partial lifting would count. For the purposes of this question, Macau is considered a part of China.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:21.594Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, - "numforecasters": 64, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Tonga in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Tonga is Tu'I'onetoa, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Tonga has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 51 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0065333", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9934667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Tonga", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Tu'I'onetoa", - "month_risk": "0.000476", - "annual_risk": "0.0065333", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "51", - "leader_years": "1.416667", - "country_code": "TON", - "country_abb": "TON" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Afghanistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Afghanistan is Ashraf Ghani, who has been in power for 6.5 years. Afghanistan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 6 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0145318", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9854682, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Afghanistan", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ashraf Ghani", - "month_risk": "0.0025558", - "annual_risk": "0.0145318", - "risk_change_percent": "0.08", - "regime_years": "6", - "leader_years": "6.5", - "country_code": "AFG", - "country_abb": "AFG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden picks Romney as VP in 2022 if Harris resigns", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A267", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:08.133Z", "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasters": 48, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19773,7 +47066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:16:49.874Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:17.398Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -19787,562 +47080,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/", + "title": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n", + "description": "See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question.\nWill there be a US-Iran war by 2024?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-Iran war is defined as the US and Iran collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Iran or between Iran and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe will use [the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies' definition of battle-related deaths](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nRelated questions\n--- \n[What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7881/critical-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3462/will-there-be-a-us-iran-war-in-2020/)\n--- \n[US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3451/us-invades-and-attempts-a-regime-change-in-iran-in-2020/)\n--- \n[How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3453/how-many-cyberattacks-by-iran-against-us-govt-systems-in-q1-2020/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:31:01.025Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 158, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:03.826Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 87426 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:48.159Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 255, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself.", - "probability": 0.9672599583106107, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No. Someone else killed Hernandez.", - "probability": 0.032740041689389265, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself., No. Someone else killed Hernandez." - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:22:07.639Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:56.896Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_%28United_States_Congress%29), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:19:10.100Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 152, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Maura Healey", - "probability": 0.7961165048543689, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Geoff Diehl", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz", - "probability": 0.058252427184466014, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlie Baker", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Karyn Polito", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Benjamin Downing", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ayanna Pressley", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Danielle Allen", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Kennedy III", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Gonzalez", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:11.200Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 271886 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Maura Healey, Geoff Diehl, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Danielle Allen, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez, Marty Walsh" - }, - { - "title": ">=49 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A169", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will US Income Inequality Increase by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/income-inequality-increase-from-2019-to-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:27:36.932Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 275, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.8285714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlie Crist", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nikki Fried", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Annette Taddeo", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Val Demings", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:43.051Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 616564 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Annette Taddeo, Val Demings" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in China from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:49.046Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Bioengineering is here defined to include the application of biotechnology to enhance or increase the virulenc, infectiousness or resistance to treatment of naturally ocurring viruses.\nIf the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:40.365Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 298, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Universe end?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:30.800Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 609, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:59:11.158Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 251, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:28.863Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 273921 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:49:40.851Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8377/total-amount-of-nuclear-weapons-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nWill countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all countries on 2029-12-31 is greater than 20,000, according to the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 2034-12-31. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It does not include weapons possessed by non-state actors.\nResolution criteria will come from [FAS](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:57.208Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8135/2-states-increase-nuclear-arsenals-by-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nCurrently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nWill at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the FAS website shows, at any time between 2021-10-01 and 2023-12-31, that two or more states each have arsenals 25% higher than the estimates given above (i.e., 25% higher than FAS's estimates from May 2021). This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If a state that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gains an arsenal of at least one assembled nuclear weapon, that would be counted as a state increasing its stockpile size by at least 25%.\nIn the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear stockpile\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.\nIf FAS publish no estimates during the whole of 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nNo attempt will be made to distinguish actual increases in arsenal sizes from increases in estimates due to FAS changing their estimation methods or learning new information about what was already true in May 2021. This is mostly for simplicity, but also partly because some implications are the same whether (a) actual increases occur or (b) our current information is an underestimate. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:33.612Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z", + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 @@ -20350,5497 +47110,35 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in St Vincent in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of St Vincent is Gonsalves, who has been in power for 20.0 years. St Vincent has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 41 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0049008", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9950992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "St Vincent", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Gonsalves", - "month_risk": "0.0004128", - "annual_risk": "0.0049008", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "41", - "leader_years": "20", - "country_code": "VCT", - "country_abb": "SVG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Belgium in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Belgium is Alexander De Croo, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Belgium has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 100 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0012717", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9987283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Belgium", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Alexander De Croo", - "month_risk": "0.000107", - "annual_risk": "0.0012717", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "100", - "leader_years": "0.4166667", - "country_code": "BEL", - "country_abb": "BEL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected president of South Korea in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7582/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-South-Korea-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in South Korea.\nIf no such presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yoon Suk-yeol", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lee Jae-myung", - "probability": 0.3823529411764706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sim Sang-jung", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ahn Cheol-soo", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:00.199Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 37895 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yoon Suk-yeol, Lee Jae-myung, Sim Sang-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo" - }, - { - "title": "In France, which right-wing politicians will compete in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "There can be multiple correct answers. The shares of each correct answer will be worth 100ℍ / N (rounded to nearest integer), where N is the nicer of correct answers. The shares of the wrongs answers will be worthless (0ℍ). \"Compete\" means that the politician's name is on the ballot on election day. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.34615384615384615, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruno Retailleau", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "François Baroin", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Édouard Philippe", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.5673076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "None of the above", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Bruno Retailleau, Laurent Wauquiez, François Baroin, Édouard Philippe, Michel Barnier, None of the above" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Yemen in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Yemen is Houthi, who has been in power for 6.1 years. Yemen has a warlordism regime type which has lasted for 6 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0067772", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9932228, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Yemen", - "regime_type": "Warlordism", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Houthi", - "month_risk": "0.000423", - "annual_risk": "0.0067772", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "6", - "leader_years": "6.083333", - "country_code": "YEM", - "country_abb": "YEM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8408/givewell-recommend-breastfeeding-promotion/", + "title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating [14 charity areas](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) including breastfeeding promotion.\nThe following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s [explanation of the topic](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/breastfeeding-promotion):\n“The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF recommend early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding to 6 months, and partial breastfeeding to age 24 months to improve infant and maternal health, but the majority of infants are not fed according to these guidelines. Mothers may not breastfeed as long or as intensively as they would like due to a lack of skills and support, so various maternal counselling and support interventions promote breastfeeding behaviour change.”\nEffectiveness for the following reasons: “We believe there is reasonably strong evidence that breastfeeding support programs can lead to increases in rates of exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months (compared to some or predominant breastfeeding) and breastfeeding duration, as recommended by WHO/UNICEF. Their impacts on exclusive breastfeeding may be larger in low-income countries. There is additional evidence that increasing breastfeeding reduces diarrhoea morbidity, which likely leads to reductions in childhood mortality from diarrhoea. It may also cause additional benefits that we have not yet vetted.”\nWill GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if GiveWell publishes a recommendation that grants be given to support breastfeeding promotion or on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a breastfeeding promotion charity is designated a top charity before December 31, 2026.\nThis may happen in the following ways:\n---GiveWell writes “yes” in the column “Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?” in the “breastfeeding promotion” row of the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or the spreadsheet which supersedes this one (see below). \n---Givewell publishes a blog in which which they announce they are recommending a grant in the area of breastfeeding promotion \n---Givewell adds an incubation grant to a breastfeeding promotion charity on this page [https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants) \n---A GiveWell blog post announcing that a charity in the area of breastfeeding promotion is a “Top Charity” \n---GiveWell publishes a section on breastfeeding promotion on its [Top Charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) page \nIf GiveWell publishes a recommendation that is no longer in force in 2027, this question resolves positively. Eg GiveWell no longer recommends grants to GiveDirectly, but it once did. \nIf GiveWell revokes a recommendation due to making errors in its calculations, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThe category “standout charities” used to exist. It no longer does, so can be ignored.\nIf the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) is no longer linked from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research), a superseding spreadsheet may be used. A superseding spreadsheet should have very similar column headings or the same title (“GiveWell programme reviews) or be linked under “prioritized list of programmes” from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research) or failing that, be the consensus choice of admins commenting on the question. \nFor clarity, if the above criteria aren’t met, but a reasonable spreadsheet exists which contains a grant for breastfeeding promotion exists, admins can post their suggestions of the spreadsheet in the comments of this question. Admins can change their votes, but at the time of resolution, all admins should have commented in favour of the same spreadsheet. If they have not, and the question does not resolve positively by any of the other methods, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?\nThis question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n---at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, etc\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:57.929Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 43, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-09-07T23:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-03-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": ">=48 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A168", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2179-which-team-will-win-the-2022-nba-finals", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 ([Sporting News](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-key-dates-training-camp-regular-season-all-star/7i6te7w31znt1jd41xj6rtleg), [NBA](https://www.nba.com/standings)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Atlanta Hawks", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brooklyn Nets", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dallas Mavericks", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Denver Nuggets", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Golden State Warriors", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Miami Heat", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Phoenix Suns", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Utah Jazz", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:48.833Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 247, - "numforecasters": 56, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, Another team" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Marshall Islands in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Marshall Islands is Kabua, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Marshall Islands has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 41 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.004859", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995141, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Marshall Islands", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Kabua", - "month_risk": "0.000378", - "annual_risk": "0.004859", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "41", - "leader_years": "1.166667", - "country_code": "MHL", - "country_abb": "MSI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:09.468Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 450, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2201-before-1-january-2023-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-landing-military-personnel-on-pratas-islands-without-authorization", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands ([News.com.au](https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-reportedly-debated-attacking-taiwans-pratas-islands/news-story/d12105d9ef57b6c5f448b1e5d7c1297a), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/a-far-flung-taiwan-island-risks-triggering-a-u-s-china-clash), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/the-pratas-islands-a-new-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:10.911Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, - "numforecasters": 81, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7566/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Greg Abbott", - "probability": 0.8073394495412843, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Beto O'Rourke", - "probability": 0.10091743119266054, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Allen West", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Don Huffines", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew McConaughey", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joaquin Castro", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Julián Castro", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:32.319Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 460728 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Beto O'Rourke, Allen West, Don Huffines, Matthew McConaughey, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in India in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of India is Narendra Modi, who has been in power for 6.8 years. India has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 74 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0034211", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9965789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "India", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Narendra Modi", - "month_risk": "0.0010281", - "annual_risk": "0.0034211", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "74", - "leader_years": "6.833333", - "country_code": "IND", - "country_abb": "IND" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Lesotho in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Lesotho is Majoro, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Lesotho has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0212527", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9787473, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Lesotho", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Majoro", - "month_risk": "0.0012232", - "annual_risk": "0.0212527", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "0.8333333", - "country_code": "LSO", - "country_abb": "LES" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.5% or more in January?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-annual-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-5p5-or-more-in-january", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from January 2021 to January 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in January 2022 is 5.5 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for January 2022 is scheduled for February 23.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nNote, that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2156331126226026021300602830158881", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7843668873773973978699397169841119", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "32", - "liquidity": "3059.31", - "tradevolume": "5247.20", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bosnia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bosnia is Dodik, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Bosnia has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 25 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0034701", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9965299, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bosnia", - "regime_type": "Foreign", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Dodik", - "month_risk": "0.0002961", - "annual_risk": "0.0034701", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "25", - "leader_years": "0.3333333", - "country_code": "BIH", - "country_abb": "BOS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.5% following the Fed's June meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-014", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's June 15, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their June 15, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 90, - "yes_ask": 92, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 17326 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At close of business on 16 March 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 January 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2182-at-close-of-business-on-16-march-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-26-january-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 15-16 March 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:35.139Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 351, - "numforecasters": 102, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:40:02.223Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 83, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\nIf Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\nA clearer picture may soon emerge.\n“If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\nIf the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\nThat’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\nThe next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([Time, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n“A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n“I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n“I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of [FutureFuel.io](http://FutureFuel.io). \nWill the US forgive $10,000 of federal debt per student before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.\nThe debt cancellation should apply to the vast majority of applicable people. There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If it is unclear whether the restrictions are more strict or less strict than this, the moderators can use their discretion as to whether loan forgiveness applies to the vast majority of applicable people.\nIf the conditions above are not met, the question resolves negatively. For example, if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, the question resolves negatively.\nRelated question: [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/fede…](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:04:42.635Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 122, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:13:18.328Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 241, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **New York (excluding NYC) average more than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases** per day by February 1? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-013", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for New York (excluding NYC) is above 50,000 for a single day between Issuance and February 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for February 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for New York (excluding NYC) according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 10264 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Cheri Beasley", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Jackson", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Erica Smith", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Lee Watkins", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heath Shuler", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:46.511Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 36469 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Cheri Beasley, Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_%28Top_100%29.))\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:50.878Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 297, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 11 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2186-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-the-global-cryptocurrency-market-on-11-august-2022-according-to-coinmarketcap", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The cryptocurrency market has seen significant volatility ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/a-three-way-fight-to-shape-the-future-of-digital-finance-has-begun)). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 11 August 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 12 August 2022 ([CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $1.0 trillion", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $2.0 trillion but less than $3.0 trillion", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Between $3.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $4.0 trillion but less than $5.0 trillion", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$5.0 trillion or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:28.450Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 312, - "numforecasters": 139, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.0 trillion but less than $3.0 trillion, Between $3.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion, inclusive, More than $4.0 trillion but less than $5.0 trillion, $5.0 trillion or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:27:37.523Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 780, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2207-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-brazil", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ([France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210309-lula-s-return-opens-door-to-bolsonaro-showdown-in-polarised-brazil), [Superior Electoral Court](https://english.tse.jus.br/the-brazilian-electoral-system/elections-1)). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "João Doria", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ciro Gomes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sérgio Moro", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:59.731Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, - "numforecasters": 80, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, João Doria, Ciro Gomes, Sérgio Moro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Another candidate" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Mauritania is Ould Ghazouani, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Mauritania has a personal regime type which has lasted for 13 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.018414", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.981586, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Mauritania", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ould Ghazouani", - "month_risk": "0.0008709", - "annual_risk": "0.018414", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "13", - "leader_years": "1.583333", - "country_code": "MRT", - "country_abb": "MAA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:48.473Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 579, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GDP-009", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If real GDP increases by more than 2.5% in Q1 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GDP in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2022, or one week following that expected date of data release.. The resolution source is: The Advance Estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 29, - "yes_ask": 33, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 8116 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8728/additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-fda/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 19 November 2021, FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute second doses for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and they constitute third doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n[Some](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/covid-seasonal-winter/620766/) have suggested that COVID-19 is now transitioning to a seasonal endemic state and that this might [necessitate seasonal yearly boosters](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297981279617027).\nWill additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?\nThis will resolve positively if FDA authorizes additional booster doses for the entire U.S. adult population — this would mean a third dose for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and fourth doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:10:26.214Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 57, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Consider figure 15 from [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14701.pdf#page=18).\nSome people (arguably the authors of this paper) predict that as we scale models past GPT-3's size (the 10^11 parameter learning curve, models with parameter count X trained on X elapsed tokens will score close to the L(D) line at X elapsed tokens.\nWe are interested in whether instead the trendline will \"plateau\" or at least be substantially slower than the line L(D) by the end of the next 3 orders of magnitude of parameter count. For the sake of specificity, let's say substantially slower = less than half as steep as L(D) on this graph.\nIf and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?\nThis question resolves positively if the relevant experiment is done and reported (extending this graph, or providing equivalent data) and the slope of the learning curve for the 10^14 parameter model around 10^14 data points (Say, from 10^12 to 10^14) is less than half as steep as the slope of L(D). It resolves negatively if instead the slope is at least half as steep as L(D).\nThis question also resolves positively (or negatively) if it becomes uncontroversial what would have happened if the experiment had been done. For example, maybe other experiments will provide much more evidence about neural net scaling trends in general, such that it will be easy to calculate what would happen with this one in particular.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if by 2050 no one has performed the experiment AND there is no consensus about what would have happened if someone had.\nThe Metaculus moderators are the judge of final resort for determining whether and how to resolve this question.\nFor more context, see the comment threads below (Search for \"It's a big deal.\")\nIt is important that the data used to extend the graph be of similar quality. Obviously if we just threw in 10^14 tokens of basic arithmetic problems, the model would get good at basic arithmetic but not at anything else, and it's unclear whether the result would be on-trend or not. Ideally we'd have 10e14 tokens of diverse internet text, scanned books, chat logs, emails, etc. If this experiment gets done with different-quality data, the question becomes whether it gives us enough evidence to uncontroversial predict what would have happened if we had done it with similar-quality data. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:56:22.557Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 52, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2037-02-23T11:37:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:37:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the highest **corporate tax** rate be raised above 21% in 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CORP-003", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate becomes law between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. \n\nOther provisions that may affect the amount of corporate tax paid by a given corporation but are not the corporate income tax rate--such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to corporations--do not affect the resolution of the Contract. A bill that creates different tax brackets with some brackets below the threshold and others above with a rate greater than 21% (the current highest rate) is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, since the Contract only considers the top tax bracket. Subsequent legislation which has the effect of lowering the top tax rate imposed on corporate income below 21% does not affect the Payout Criterion. Surtaxes imposed on taxable income or (adjusted) gross income imposed on incomes in the top tax bracket are encompassed in the Payout Criterion. Increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of corporate income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not relevant for the market's resolution.\n\nThe above is a summary of the complete legally binding terms and conditions. Please see CORP in the Rulebook for the complete legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and understand the complete legally binding terms and conditions before trading.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, or 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, the release of the data (Congress.gov updating) for December 31, 2022, or January 07, 2023.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that became law between Issuance and December 31, 2022. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 17, - "yes_ask": 21, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 3270 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:47:31.657Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 166, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.\n[From Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election):\nThe next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.\nAll 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.\nThe incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.\nWill the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?\nThis question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.\n\"The next federal election\" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.\nNormally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:08:26.641Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 114, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in St Lucia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of St Lucia is Chastanet, who has been in power for 4.8 years. St Lucia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0047986", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9952014, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "St Lucia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Chastanet", - "month_risk": "0.0004091", - "annual_risk": "0.0047986", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "4.75", - "country_code": "LCA", - "country_abb": "SLU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kiss Me More by Doja Cat win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-6", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Kiss Me More by Doja Cat has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 28920 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:00:42.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1124, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": ">=46 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A166", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2229-at-close-of-business-on-4-may-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-march-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:17.653Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 223, - "numforecasters": 91, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Micronesia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Micronesia is Panuelo, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Micronesia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0062901", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9937099, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Micronesia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Panuelo", - "month_risk": "0.0005942", - "annual_risk": "0.0062901", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "1.833333", - "country_code": "FSM", - "country_abb": "FSM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2188-which-publicly-traded-us-company-will-have-the-highest-end-of-day-market-capitalization-as-of-30-june-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using \"Market Cap\" data as reported by companiesmarketcap.com at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 June 2022 ([CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Alphabet (Google)", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amazon", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Apple", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Microsoft", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another company", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:24.822Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 182, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Another company" - }, - { - "title": "How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/339-how-will-the-number-of-defense-innovation-unit-transitions-change-over-the-next-three-years", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Context. The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) was founded in 2015 with a mission to \"strengthen U.S. national security by increasing the military's adoption of commercial technology.\" In response to DoD needs for commercial solutions, it solicits proposals, primarily from small businesses or non-traditional defense contractors. Successful applicants are contracted to develop prototypes. Transitions are successful prototypes that lead to large-volume procurement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data in the DIU annual report, typically published in February or March of the following year.***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * * \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:29.389Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 161, - "numforecasters": 48, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" - }, - { - "title": "Which Party's candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176964", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. In the event of any uncertainty over which party each candidate represents the Party as defined by the Federal Election Commission will be used for settlement. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic Party", - "probability": 0.44232383838797534, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican Party", - "probability": 0.5206520181025126, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Any Other", - "probability": 0.037024143509512004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 31960.3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party, Any Other" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\nOn [elections scheduled for November 8, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections), US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.\nDemocratic President Joe Biden [said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/12/15/biden_to_republicans_get_ready_youre_in_for_a_problem_were_going_to_win_in_2022.html),\nI just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it. \nRepublican Senator Rick Scott [said to Fox Business on the same day](https://www.deseret.com/2021/11/19/22787494/republicans-chances-to-take-back-congress-in-2022-are-looking-good-utah-redistricting-gop),\nWe’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”\nGeneric congressional ballot data shows [Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/) lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden currently has an [-8 percentage point net approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/).\nFiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported [a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-flurry-of-democratic-departures-means-for-the-2022-house-race/), arguing this is a signal of good prospects of a Republican victory.\nWill Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?\nThis question will resolve positively if, following the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), over 50% of House and Senate congresspeople are members of the Republican party. If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, or both, this question will resolve negatively.\nIndependents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:21:46.098Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 115, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Wormhole hacker return 69% or more of the exploited funds by February 9th?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-wormhole-hacker-return-69-or-more-of-the-exploited-funds-by-february-9th", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "In Response to Trader inquiry: Wormhole has clarified that 120k wETH was exploited. However, this market will continue to use 64,688 ETH returned as the threshold for resolving the market to “Yes.”\n\nOn 2/2/2022 Wormhole was exploited for approximately 93,750 ETH, as can be seen here: https://etherscan.io/address/0x629e7da20197a5429d30da36e77d06cdf796b71a#internaltx\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Wormhole hacker returns at least 69% of the exploited funds to Wormhole by February 9, 2022 11:59:59 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. \n\nAny official announcements by Wormhole (https://wormholenetwork.com/, https://twitter.com/wormholecrypto, etc) will be sufficient to resolve this market, as well as transactions from the hacker that return the funds to whichever relevant party or parties as determined by Wormhole.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 69% or more of the exploited funds means 64,688 ETH or more. or if other cryptocurrencies/currencies are sent instead, then at the time they were sent if their conversion into ETH was 64,688 ETH or more, it will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes.”\n\nNote that if funds are returned to Wormhole in another way, and they confirm, it will count for this market.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1894649520115944940688188856897811", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8105350479884055059311811143102189", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "46", - "liquidity": "24626.33", - "tradevolume": "13816.90", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170273835", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Keir Starmer, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by The Labour Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Andy Burnham", - "probability": 0.20475310710549088, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": 0.10140153875700501, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.02957544880412646, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.07605115406775376, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.07342870047921053, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.022181586603094845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Louise Haigh", - "probability": 0.007605115406775376, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": 0.028018846235488226, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Clive Lewis", - "probability": 0.002366035904330117, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Carden", - "probability": 0.015210230813550753, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lucy Powell", - "probability": 0.008190124284219636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ian Lavery", - "probability": 0.0014388056174980443, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anneliese Dodds", - "probability": 0.007098107712990352, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Lammy", - "probability": 0.01330895196185691, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Burgon", - "probability": 0.005603769247097645, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rachel Reeves", - "probability": 0.11830179521650584, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bridget Phillipson", - "probability": 0.03327237990464227, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laura Pidcock", - "probability": 0.005915089760825293, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": 0.003802557703387688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Miliband", - "probability": 0.009679237790441388, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": 0.005603769247097645, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim McMahon", - "probability": 0.004839618895220694, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Zarah Sultana", - "probability": 0.01638024856843927, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jonathan Reynolds", - "probability": 0.006263036217344428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", - "probability": 0.025350384689251253, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.004095062142109818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stella Creasy", - "probability": 0.007098107712990352, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Wes Streeting", - "probability": 0.09258401364770023, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Kendall", - "probability": 0.006654475980928455, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": 0.006263036217344428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew Pennycook", - "probability": 0.0053235807847427635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stephen Kinnock", - "probability": 0.008872634641237939, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chi Onwurah", - "probability": 0.003802557703387688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Barry Gardiner", - "probability": 0.004258864627794211, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Jarvis", - "probability": 0.015210230813550753, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Angela Eagle", - "probability": 0.0011830179521650586, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kate Osamor", - "probability": 0.003802557703387688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cat Smith", - "probability": 0.0012526072434688854, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nia Griffith", - "probability": 0.0011830179521650586, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Seema Malhotra", - "probability": 0.003549053856495176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0021294323138971055, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": 0.007098107712990352, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 34335.21 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, Sadiq Khan, Lisa Nandy, Yvette Cooper, Rosena Allin-Khan, Louise Haigh, Jess Phillips, Clive Lewis, Dan Carden, Lucy Powell, Ian Lavery, Anneliese Dodds, David Lammy, Richard Burgon, Rachel Reeves, Bridget Phillipson, Laura Pidcock, Emily Thornberry, David Miliband, Jon Trickett, Jim McMahon, Zarah Sultana, Jonathan Reynolds, Jonathan Ashworth, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Stella Creasy, Wes Streeting, Liz Kendall, Hilary Benn, Matthew Pennycook, Stephen Kinnock, Chi Onwurah, Barry Gardiner, Dan Jarvis, Angela Eagle, Kate Osamor, Cat Smith, Nia Griffith, Seema Malhotra, Jeremy Corbyn, Nick Thomas-Symonds" - }, - { - "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:37.380Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 269, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:12:19.913Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 54, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Chile in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Chile is Sebastian Pinera, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Chile has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0074274", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9925726, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Chile", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Sebastian Pinera", - "month_risk": "0.0005081", - "annual_risk": "0.0074274", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "3", - "country_code": "CHL", - "country_abb": "CHL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:16.391Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 176, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-16T10:05:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Vermont Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7607/Who-will-win-the-2022-Vermont-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Vermont.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Peter Welch", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Niki Thran", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Miro Weinberger", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:40.983Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 876 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Peter Welch, Niki Thran, Miro Weinberger" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2189-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-hang-seng-index-on-30-june-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/27/can-hong-kongs-economy-survive-chinas-political-crackdown), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q3-gdp-growth-hits-1-year-low-raising-heat-policymakers-2021-10-17/)). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 20,000", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 23,000 but less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 29,000 but less than 32,000", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "32,000 or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:23.093Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 157, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20,000, Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive, More than 23,000 but less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive, More than 29,000 but less than 32,000, 32,000 or more" - }, - { - "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.\nIn 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:21.179Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **government be shut down** on February 19?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SHUTDOWN-003", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government is shut down on February 19, 2022 at 10:00 AM due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: Notices on the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 8, - "yes_ask": 9, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 16930 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8981/chinese-gdp-growth-from-q2-q4-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Chinese Economy](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI) has grown remarkably fast in recent decades, with 10-20% annual growth in GDP. Q1 of 2020 marked the one exception where GDP declined by 6% compared to Q1 2019, due to China's heavy lockdowns during the early [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic).\nWill China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if China's GDP in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2022 are greater than the previous quarter, according to the [OECD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:22:34.287Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.010000000000000009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:30.480Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 378, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Singapore in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Singapore is Lee Hsien Loong, who has been in power for 16.6 years. Singapore has a party regime type which has lasted for 56 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0007906", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9992094, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Singapore", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lee Hsien Loong", - "month_risk": "0.0000654", - "annual_risk": "0.0007906", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "56", - "leader_years": "16.58333", - "country_code": "SGP", - "country_abb": "SIN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nWill there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2100, there has been a period of at least 5 consecutive years in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:56.320Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 420, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nWill Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea, in the period between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:27:51.415Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will average daily **COVID-19 case numbers in France** be above 300,000 for the week ending February 07, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-017", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in France in the period between in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 is greater than 300,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 07, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 21, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 for France as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 5, - "yes_ask": 8, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 8858 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:25:13.432Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 216, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8380/test-of-nuclear-weapon-above-30-mt-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 there are reports of such a test by reputable sources.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:13.048Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:35.153Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in October 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2216-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-inflation-for-the-eurozone-in-october-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After years of failing to reach the European Central Bank's (ECB's) inflation target of 2%, estimated November 2021 inflation figures for in the eurozone reached an all-time high in the 25 years since the data have been compiled, an annual rate of change of 4.9% ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/inflation-euro-zone-november-2021.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-chief-declines-to-say-if-inflation-will-hit-target-next-year/), [ECB](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" ([Eurostat](https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en)). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for October 2021 (2021M10) was 4.1%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 1.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5.0% or more", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:40.262Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 193, - "numforecasters": 90, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive, More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive, More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:15.255Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 474, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Labor Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178911257", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Anthony Albanese", - "probability": 0.7580832125145318, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tanya Plibersek", - "probability": 0.013013761814832795, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Chalmers", - "probability": 0.12200401701405747, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Marles", - "probability": 0.04109608994157725, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Bowen", - "probability": 0.043379206049442655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jason Clare", - "probability": 0.010411009451866238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joel Fitzgibbon", - "probability": 0.012012703213691812, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "volume": 7731.71 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Jim Chalmers, Richard Marles, Chris Bowen, Jason Clare, Joel Fitzgibbon" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Ireland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Ireland is Martin, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Ireland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 99 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0006147", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9993853, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Ireland", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Martin", - "month_risk": "0.0000512", - "annual_risk": "0.0006147", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "99", - "leader_years": "0.75", - "country_code": "IRL", - "country_abb": "IRE" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:21:20.104Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 216, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2174-between-29-october-2021-and-30-june-2022-how-many-members-will-announce-their-withdrawal-from-the-cooperation-between-china-and-central-and-eastern-european-countries-china-ceec-initiative", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" ([Taipei Times](https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571), [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html)). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "0", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "1 or 2", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "3 or 4", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:57.765Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "numforecasters": 35, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)\nWill the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?\nAn ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:05:58.100Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 178, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-20T08:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-%28male%29), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:10.010Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 294, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2151-before-1-october-2022-will-facebook-announce-that-mark-zuckerberg-will-cease-to-be-the-company-s-sole-chairman-or-ceo", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-misinformation-public-60-minutes-2021-10-03/), [Endgadget](https://www.engadget.com/mark-zuckerberg-denies-facebook-profit-over-safety-033717690.html), [Quartz](https://qz.com/2069983/mark-zuckerberg-rejects-facebook-whistleblowers-allegations/)). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 28 October 2021: We are aware of Facebook's name change to Meta. For the purposes of this question, consider this change in and of itself to be immaterial.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:39.992Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 299, - "numforecasters": 183, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many votes to confirm a SCOTUS nominee by July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7722/How-many-votes-to-confirm-a-SCOTUS-nominee-by-July-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, after January 27, 2022 but before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of a nominee to join the Supreme Court of the United States (the \"Office\"). The first qualifying confirmation vote shall be used to settle this market. A vote to elevate an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice shall not be relevant for purposes of this market.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "48 or fewer", - "probability": 0.10091743119266057, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "49 ", - "probability": 0.009174311926605507, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "50", - "probability": 0.08256880733944955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "51", - "probability": 0.10091743119266057, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "52", - "probability": 0.1651376146788991, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "53", - "probability": 0.17431192660550462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "54", - "probability": 0.09174311926605506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "55", - "probability": 0.06422018348623855, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "56", - "probability": 0.04587155963302753, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "57 or more", - "probability": 0.1651376146788991, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:10.138Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 145035 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49 , 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more" - }, - { - "title": "How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/422-how-will-the-percentage-of-u-s-residents-who-are-concerned-about-how-the-government-uses-their-data-change-over-the-next-three-years", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the results of the Pew Research Center \"Americans and Privacy\" survey. The survey asks \"How concerned are you, if at all, about how the government is using the data it collects about you?\" The answer options are \"Very concerned,\" \"Somewhat concerned,\" \"Not too concerned,\" and \"Not at all concerned.\" This question asks about the percentage of respondents who select either \"Very concerned\" or \"Somewhat concerned.\" The date of the survey is the end of the survey period, not the date the results are published. This survey is conducted at irregular intervals, and therefore might not be conducted during each of the three years being forecasted. If the survey is not conducted during a forecast period, that period will not be scored. This question has been asked once in June 2019. The results of that surveys are available here (pg. 54).* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.* * * \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:27.863Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 360, - "numforecasters": 138, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" - }, - { - "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.\nWill Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Turkish government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:29.667Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:49:30.757Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "DeSantis is 2024 POTUS", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A248", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8515/by-2050-genetic-engineering-to-raise-iq/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that.\nBy 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?\nThis question resolves positively if by January 1, 2050, there is at least one commercially available genetic engineering technique shown to raise a patient's IQ by 10 or more points on average. This procedure must be effective on >66% of the public; an intervention focused on patients with [down syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), for example, does not qualify. Studies from medical journals, statements by government agencies or public health officials may be used as resolution sources if Metaculus Admins find them to be credible.\nA procedure can be considered \"commercially available\" if it is available to the general public for a total cost of less than 25% of the median household income for that nation in that year. \"Genetic engineering techniques\" include embryo selection, gametogenesis, gene therapy, CRISPR editing, and other forms of gene editing or artificial selection. For example in the case of embryo selection, the technique may resolve this question positively if it can select embryos with an average of >10 IQ gain over the median embryo for that patient. Adverse side effects of these procedures are irrelevant for the purposes of this question (with the exception that the patient must typically survive for at least 5 years following the procedure).\nResolution may be delayed up to 2060 to confirm the effectiveness of the genetic engineering techniques. If studies are unclear at this point, the resolution may be delayed, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:53.024Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 64, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T18:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T18:57:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7440/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Iowa.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Deidre DeJear", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ras Smith", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cindy Axne", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rob Sand", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:44.399Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 15103 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Deidre DeJear, Ras Smith, Cindy Axne, Rob Sand" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In particular, scenarios involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China nuclear conflict may be especially worth prioritizing, as those three states have the largest nuclear forces and relations between them (especially US-China) also seem important for other issues. \nIt therefore seems important to have a clearer sense of how likely it is that conflicts that do not start between those states would escalate to involve them. The more likely such escalation is, the more it would be worth also prioritizing reducing the chance of those other scenarios or of an escalation from them to a scenario involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China conflicts.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?\nThis question conditions on an offensive nuclear detonation occurring between this question opening and 2024 and the first such detonation not being (a) of a weapon owned by Russia, the US, or China, and (b) on or over the territory of one of the others of those states. For example, this condition would be met if an Indian nuclear weapon is offensively detonated over Pakistani territory or if a Chinese nuclear weapon is detonated over Japanese territory. If this condition isn't met, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and, also by 2024, at least two of the three countries Russia, the US, or China have offensively detonated at least one nuclear weapon each. Those detonations can include, but don't have to include, the detonation that met the previously specified condition. (For example, this question would resolve positively if by 2024 China offensively detonates against Japan and then the US offensively detonates against China, or if India offensively detonates against anyone and then both China and the US offensively detonate against anyone.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nRelated Questions\n--- \n[Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:20.406Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-09T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by August 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-august-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, August 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4849617052730954765863976713214142", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5150382947269045234136023286785858", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "54", - "liquidity": "1079.52", - "tradevolume": "3159.67", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:31:43.872Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 224, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:33.584Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 274, - "numforecasters": 55, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic or non-strategic nuclear weapon. [Non-strategic nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges, as some non-strategic weapons can be used in a strategic context, and vice versa.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation between this question opening and 2024 was a detonation of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:01:47.545Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5096153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.49038461538461536, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:38.983Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 35108 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:58.879Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 125684 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in USA in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of USA is Biden, who has been in power for 0.2 years. USA has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 232 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0007023", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9992977, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "USA", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Biden", - "month_risk": "0.0000602", - "annual_risk": "0.0007023", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "232", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "USA", - "country_abb": "USA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:48.268Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 242, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:22:50.719Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 59, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:53.087Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 865, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 [in 1914](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-stock-exchange-shut-down-1914-2014-7?r=US&IR=T).\nWill there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a period of at least 12 consecutive months before the end of 2120 during which there are no public US stock exchanges open for trading.\nWe'll use the definition of stock market/exchange on [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp) ([archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20210518172600/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp)):\nThe stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where regular activities of buying, selling, and issuance of shares of publicly-held companies take place.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:10:07.496Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in France in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of France is Macron, who has been in power for 3.8 years. France has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 62 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0018088", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9981912, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "France", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Macron", - "month_risk": "0.0001477", - "annual_risk": "0.0018088", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "62", - "leader_years": "3.833333", - "country_code": "FRA", - "country_abb": "FRN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win OH 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A155", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_%28rocket%29) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:27.632Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 190, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:50.362Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 374, - "numforecasters": 153, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Sierra Leone in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Sierra Leone is Julius Maada Bio, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Sierra Leone has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 23 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0297592", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9702408, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Sierra Leone", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Julius Maada Bio", - "month_risk": "0.003748", - "annual_risk": "0.0297592", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.03", - "regime_years": "23", - "leader_years": "2.916667", - "country_code": "SLE", - "country_abb": "SIE" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:30.419Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 496, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2222-how-many-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-will-be-registered-in-the-uk-in-2022-according-to-the-society-of-motor-manufacturers-and-traders-smmt", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using the \"Year to date\" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month ([SMMT - Car Registrations](https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/), [SMMT](https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/)). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 ([SMMT - News 6 December 2021](https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-doubles-but-new-car-market-remains-well-adrift-of-pre-pandemic-levels/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:31.878Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 125, - "numforecasters": 56, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000, Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" - }, - { - "title": "How many votes to confirm Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair by March 31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7679/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Lael-Brainard-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-March-31", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Lael Brainard (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"51 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"76 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "51 or fewer", - "probability": 0.4752475247524752, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "52 to 54", - "probability": 0.25742574257425743, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "55 to 57", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "58 to 60", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "61 to 63", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "64 to 66", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "67 to 69", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "70 to 72", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "73 to 75", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "76 or more", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:56.491Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 23683 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "51 or fewer, 52 to 54, 55 to 57, 58 to 60, 61 to 63, 64 to 66, 67 to 69, 70 to 72, 73 to 75, 76 or more" - }, - { - "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8394/hemp-attacks-causing-10-million-fatalities/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and how many such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about how much harm would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n---a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or \n---a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation \nIf one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?\nThis question resolves positively if at least one HEMP attack occurs before 2030-01-01 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by 2030-01-01 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by 2030-01-31. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\nNo attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources regarding what fatalities should be considered \"caused\" by the HEMP attack(s). This could include fatalities caused by the initial blast of a HEMP attack, the radioactive fallout, or by the infrastructure disruption caused by the HEMP. But estimates of fatalities caused by other bombs or military strikes in the same time place will not be counted as estimates of fatalities caused by the HEMP attack(s). \nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:55.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:36.100Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 401, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen lead in the first round of the French presidential election of 2022?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": " ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05050505050505051, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9494949494949496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.\nWill China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:43.999Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 72, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which right-wing candidate will be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "The answers \"Several of them\" and \"None of them\" only refer to the three candidates listed, not to the whole set of potential right-wing candidates. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Michel Barnier (only)", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand (only)", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valérie Pécresse (only)", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Several of them", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "None of them", - "probability": 0.8019801980198019, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michel Barnier (only), Xavier Bertrand (only), Valérie Pécresse (only), Several of them, None of them" - }, - { - "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by March 31st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-march-31st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by March 31st, 2022. \n\nIf Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before March 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nPre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by March 31, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.609743137721774244445444343949389", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.390256862278225755554555656050611", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "64", - "liquidity": "5468.21", - "tradevolume": "5165.99", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-8", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 9750 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:31.081Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 451, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8931/carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his title against a challenger.\nWill Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?\nThis question resolves positively if Carlsen plays and finishes at least one game in the next World Chess Championship match (so the first one after the championship held in 2021). It resolves negatively if the championship is held but Carlsen is not one of the players, and it resolves ambiguously if the championship is not held until the resolution date of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:20:01.255Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \nResolution shall be by credible media report.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:55.099Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 317, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:18:06.544Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:43:59.060Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:06.679Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 79419 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 12 billion worldwide?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2185-when-will-the-number-of-covid-19-vaccine-doses-administered-reach-12-billion-worldwide", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/what-to-expect-in-year-three-of-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times ([Financial Times](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/)). Scroll to the section \"Vaccination doses administered...\" For location enter \"World,\" then click the boxes \"Raw numbers,\" \"Cumulative,\" and \"Total doses.\" The value and date will appear when hovering over the \"World\" line in the resulting graphic ([Financial Times](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=zzz&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=0), parameters are set with the link).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 April 2022", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 October 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:30.727Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 322, - "numforecasters": 140, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022, Not before 1 October 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:05.023Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 266592 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:17.927Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 125, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Algeria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Algeria is Tebboune, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Algeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 0 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0106954", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9893046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Algeria", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Tebboune", - "month_risk": "0.000453", - "annual_risk": "0.0106954", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "0", - "leader_years": "1.25", - "country_code": "DZA", - "country_abb": "ALG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Vietnam in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Vietnam is Phu Trong, who has been in power for 10.2 years. Vietnam has a party regime type which has lasted for 71 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0071124", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9928876, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Vietnam", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Phu Trong", - "month_risk": "0.0002707", - "annual_risk": "0.0071124", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "71", - "leader_years": "10.16667", - "country_code": "VNM", - "country_abb": "DRV" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-by-2032/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Risks from Artificial intelligence](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/) are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.\nIn Toby Ord's recent book [The Precipice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity) he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.\nThis question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years.\nBy 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?\nThis question resolves positively if there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been an event precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 100+ deaths or $1bn 2021 USD in economic damage before Jan 1st 2032.\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for resolution.\nTo count as precipitated by AI malfunction an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\nIf, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution. \nAn AI system being used in warfare and causing 100+ deaths in the course of its expected behaviour is an example of something which should not count.\nA system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:27:43.769Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-fewer-than-1-3-million-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/united-airlines-demand-recovers-despite-delta-variant.html)). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 April 2022", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:40.489Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 375, - "numforecasters": 82, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021, Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Botswana in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Botswana is Mokgweetsi Masisi, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Botswana has a party regime type which has lasted for 55 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0062575", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9937425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Botswana", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mokgweetsi Masisi", - "month_risk": "0.0003736", - "annual_risk": "0.0062575", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "55", - "leader_years": "2.916667", - "country_code": "BWA", - "country_abb": "BOT" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8524/2022-budget-includes-new-bank-surveillance/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Biden administration’s “[Build Back Better](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text)” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. \nIn the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals [worth more than $600](https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-irs-push-democrats-to-require-banks-to-report-annual-account-flows-11631727020), purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was [raised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-bank-reporting-democrats-11634658560) to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.\nBanking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities.\nWill Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?\nThis question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:57:29.801Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-20T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\nThere are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\nToday, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund.\nWill PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively via PsiQuantum company report that they have a quantum computer for sale by 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:14:11.218Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7548/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Colorado", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Colorado U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.7425742574257426, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.25742574257425743, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:55.245Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 35926 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.020000000000000018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:15.862Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\nThis question asks if he will hold that status as of year end 2025.\nWill Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) as of December 31st, 2025. It resolves negatively otherwise. \nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:14:48.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 174, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Macedonia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Macedonia is Zaev, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Macedonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0056277", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9943723, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Macedonia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Zaev", - "month_risk": "0.0004657", - "annual_risk": "0.0056277", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", - "regime_years": "29", - "leader_years": "0.5833333", - "country_code": "MKD", - "country_abb": "MAC" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, \"[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\"\nAs an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, \"forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth\" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).\nEvasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.\nSpace debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space. \nWill there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (AP, New York Times, etc.) report that space debris has killed at least one human by January 1, 2025. \nDirect death in space (human-occupied spacecraft) will count towards positive resolution. Direct death on earth from re-entering debris (e.g. hitting someone on the head) will not count. If an astronaut dies on earth from space-debris injuries sustained in space, the question will resolve positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:11:09.162Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:52:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2236-between-30-december-2021-and-31-may-2022-will-nato-and-or-a-nato-member-state-accuse-russian-national-military-forces-of-invading-ukraine", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/europe/russia-europe-us-nato-ukraine-intl/index.html), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/21/putin-blames-west-for-tensions-as-fears-rise-over-ukraine), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59696450)). For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:57.351Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 769, - "numforecasters": 243, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will it snow more than 10 inches in New York City in January?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/LSNOWNY-005", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the total snowfall in New York City between January 1, 2022 and January 31, 2022 (inclusive) is strictly greater than 10 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see LSNOWNY in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including how to calculate total snowfall.. The resolution source is: Snowfall totals in Central Park, New York City, New York according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”) (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.010000000000000009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 99, - "yes_ask": 100, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 67432 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042/us-taxprep-to-decline-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.\nWill <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?\nThe IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nAs numbers currently appear to be available on a 3-year lag, it seems likely that this question won’t resolve until several years after the designated resolution date. If 2027 numbers are not available by 2032, then the earliest post 2027 data available should be used. If no later data is available, this question should resolve ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:25:17.863Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 20, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8536/russia-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that Russia has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:28.427Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”\nWill there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of the following occurs between December 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022:\n--- \nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.\n--- \nThere are at least three credible news reports of an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:17:34.667Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 267, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8356/safer-to-leak-10000-t-oil-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since 1988, the former supertanker Esso Japan has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel Safer. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Yemen's oil fields and trans-ship it for export. In this configuration it could store up to about 400,000 tonnes (3 MMbbl) of oil.\nIn 2015, the opposition Houthi movement captured Al Hudaydah and its port, and the Safer fell into disuse and disrepair. In subsequent years, international concern has gradually increased about the ship and its derelict cargo of nearly 150,000 tonnes (1.14 MMbbl). A major spill could close port access for badly needed humanitarian aid, wipe out the fishing industry of a country already experiencing widespread malnutrition, and potentially disrupt global shipping lanes through the confined approaches to the Suez Canal.\nSafely removing the oil from the Safer in its current condition ought to be simple mechanically. The problem is obtaining the necessary co-operation from the Houthis. Their troops garrison the vessel. There are fears of naval mines in the surrounding waters, and of booby-traps and scuttling charges aboard the Safer itself.\nThe Houthi leadership has linked the resolution of the Safer problem to broader diplomatic disputes. In 2020, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi mockingly tweeted, \"The life of the shrimps is more precious than the life of Yemeni citizens to the U.S. and its allies. ... Why is Safer more dangerous than the siege and the assault ... on the [Yemeni] people?\" In a later tweet, he added: \"If, God forbid, an environmental catastrophe occurred with the explosion of the Safer, the world will stop not for a week, as it did in Suez [during the Ever Given incident], but will stop for a long time.\" Some United Nations officials working on the problem are said to have privately concluded that the Houthis are playing chicken.\nAs Journalist Ed Caesar [has written](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/the-ship-that-became-a-bomb) in The New Yorker:\nThe Safer is not sinking. It is not on fire. It has not exploded. It is not leaking oil. Yet the crew of the ship, and every informed observer, expects disaster to occur soon. But how soon? A year? Six months? Two weeks? Tomorrow? In May [2021], Ahmed Kulaib, the former executive at [the Safer's operating company], told me that “it could be after five minutes.” Then five minutes passed, and then another... The crisis unfolds at the speed of rust.\nWill the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of credible media report that an oil spill associated with the FSO Safer has released at least 10,000 metric tonnes of oil. This question will resolve negatively if this has not occurred by 2025-01-01.\nIn the case that estimates of the size of the oil spill vary, such that ranges span above and below 10,000 tonnes, the question may resolve ambiguous if sufficient clarifying evidence is unavailable.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:28.236Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-16T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8535/nprs-reaction-on-weapons-employment-by-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThis question resolves positively if the next Nuclear Posture Review (released between the time of this question opening and 31-12-2023) includes clear affirmation that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if a new Nuclear Posture Review is not publicly available by 2024 (but that seems very unlikely).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:23.239Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2126-what-percentage-of-venture-capital-dollars-will-go-to-us-startups-with-female-only-founders-in-2022-according-to-crunchbase", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Women-led firms have historically seen a small fraction of venture capital funding ([Crunchbase](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/sole-female-founders-raised-1b-less-in-2020-despite-record-venture-funding-surge-in-the-us/), [Harvard Business Review](https://hbr.org/2021/02/women-led-startups-received-just-2-3-of-vc-funding-in-2020)). The outcome will be determined using data published by Crunchbase for the US for 2022, expected in 2023. For 2020, the percentage was 2.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 2.5%", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "3.5% or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:19.791Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 107, - "numforecasters": 45, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive, More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%, 3.5% or more" - }, - { - "title": "How many San Francisco school board members recalled?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7596/How-many-San-Francisco-school-board-members-recalled", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of the below-listed members of the San Francisco Unified School District Board who are recalled in the February 2022 recall election. For purposes of this market, a member whose position is vacated prior to the recall election shall be considered to have been recalled, regardless of the existence or outcome of the recall election. \nFor purposes of this market, the three members being considered for recall are Gabriela López, Alison Collins, and Faauuga Moliga. No other members shall be considered for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "One", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Two", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Three", - "probability": 0.8217821782178217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:31.851Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 9031 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two, Three" - }, - { - "title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7550/truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nIs the sunflower conjecture true?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. It will resolve negatively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.\nIf there is no such proof by 2300-01-01, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2300-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-08 : changed the resolution date from 2121 to 2300.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:19:08.814Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9122/next-sars-cov-2-variant-from-the-unvaccinated/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The World Health Organization has (as of January 2022) identified several variants of SARS-CoV-2, 5 of which are designated as [variants of concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This designation indicates that the variant is more serious than previous variants of the virus, in that it is more transmissible, or evades current vaccinations or treatments. According to the WHO, 4 of the variants of concern emerged before vaccinations were available or widely deployed. Around [25-28% of South Africans](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~ZAF) had recieved at least 1 dose of a COVID vaccine at the time the omicron variant was identified there, while the global average vaccination share was around 50%.\nDr. William Schaffner from the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center said to [CNN in July 2021](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/15/five-more-years/) \"Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories [...] The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply [...] When it does, it mutates, and it could throw off a variant mutation that is even more serious down the road.\"\nDr. Amesh Adalja, from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said to Poynter in August 2021, \"The delta variant emerged in a largely unvaccinated country [...] The more the virus spreads, the more chance there is for variants to emerge.\"\nWill the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next [variant of concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) originates from a country with a lower share of the population vaccinated than [the global average](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~OWID_WRL).\nThis question will use the [WHO](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) to determine the country of origin. If, like for omicron, they only list \"multiple countries\", we will consult [cov-lineages](https://cov-lineages.org/lineage_list.html), or wait for a epidemiological consensus to emerge.\nA country will be considered a \"low-vaccination nation\" if [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) shows the share of population who have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine is lower than the global average during the period when the variant is estimated to have emerged.\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if there is no new variant of concern between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:30:08.826Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:13.659Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 359, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [meat or dairy tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax) is a tax levied on the purchase or consumption of meat and/or other animal products to disincentivize the production or consumption of meat products. \nMeat and dairy production is known to be a disproportional contributor of emissions, attributing approximately half of food-derived GHG emissions, while only accounting for one-third of the dietary energy intake worldwide ([Broeks et al., 2020](https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-08590-z)). Hence, many have advocated for a meat production or consumption tax (see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax#Proponents)).\nWill a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if a meat or dairy consumption tax is imposed by the US federal government, or by any country that is a EU member state (at the time when it imposes such a tax), by 2023-01-01 at 12:00PM EST. \n--- \nQualifying taxes include [excise tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excise) (i.e. a per unit tax that applies to a narrow range of products), or a [sales tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sales_tax) (i.e. a tax levied on the sale of a good to its final end user and is charged every time that item is sold retail). \n--- \nThe tax must be applied to the meat of any of the following: cattle, pig, sheep, chicken; or to cow milk \n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the consumption tax is applied nation-wide, and that the tax goes into effect by the resolution date.\n--- \nAn increase in VAT specific to meat and dairy products in any member state of the EU will also count towards positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:02:34.203Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 146, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:35:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:35:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8851/cultivated-meat-profitable-by-april-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).\nAnd it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. \n\"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney.\"\nLarge, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)\nAlthough no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely. Therefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.\nWill a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period. \nWe define \"focuses primarily\" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nThe profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:18.212Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021. \nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state Russia has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that Russia would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:59:41.028Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 US Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:27:21.873Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 556, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 23%", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 27%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:01.488Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "\n \n\n
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 23%, Between 23% and 27%, inclusive, More than 27%" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/) \n---[Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\nBefore 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the 2020 figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures). A copy of this data is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8K0IhRh_1ZVvy4mFxyhEJ7GX7FyrDqxRNkeRcLqFIg/edit?usp=sharing).\nIn the case of political or territorial changes of any nation on the list, the successor country will be identified as having the same political capitol as the parent country.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:26:56.341Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:57.772Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 209, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:\nWill a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?\nThis resolves positive if, before 2029, a Democratic US President signs into law a budget that provides for 500 billion dollars less in spending than the budget of the previous year.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:34:23.691Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 64, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Costa Rica in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Costa Rica is Carlos Alvarado Quesada, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Costa Rica has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 71 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0045382", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9954618, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Costa Rica", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Carlos Alvarado Quesada", - "month_risk": "0.0003736", - "annual_risk": "0.0045382", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "71", - "leader_years": "2.833333", - "country_code": "CRI", - "country_abb": "COS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Barbados in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Barbados is Mia Mottley, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Barbados has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 54 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0035787", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9964213, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Barbados", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mia Mottley", - "month_risk": "0.0003005", - "annual_risk": "0.0035787", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "54", - "leader_years": "2.833333", - "country_code": "BRB", - "country_abb": "BAR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8835/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.\nWill the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?\nResolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:14:10.288Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:52.339Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 277, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2175-before-1-january-2023-will-negotiations-on-a-china-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-free-trade-agreement-be-completed", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 ([China Ministry of Commerce](http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html), [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/china-is-happy-about-the-abraham-accords-and-the-gcc-crisis-coming-to-an-end/), [ANI News](https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/chinese-saudi-arabian-fms-talk-over-phone-on-ties-cooperation20211017225922/), [GCC](https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx)). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., [New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade](https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:56.039Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 50, - "numforecasters": 34, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **income taxes** rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/ITAX-002", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If a bill becomes law in 2022 that raises income taxes on the highest income tax bracket, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nOther provisions that may affect the amount of personal income tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate--such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to individuals do not affect the resolution of the Contract. However, added or raised surtaxes on adjusted gross income or taxable income for incomes in the highest tax bracket would result in the market resulting in Yes. Raising income taxes (whether via a surtax or not) by creating a new tax bracket that is above the aforementioned threshold would also result in the market resolving to Yes. Changes in taxes on specific forms of personal income that are not taxable income or adjusted gross income--such as dividends, long-term capital gains, etc.--are not relevant for the market's resolution. \n\nThe above is merely a summary of the rules. Please see ITAX in the Rulebook for the complete, legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and understand the complete terms and conditions before trading.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, or 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, the release of the data (Congress.gov updating) for December 31, 2022, or January 07, 2023.\n\n\n. The resolution source is: All bills that became law between Issuance and December 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 38, - "yes_ask": 41, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 9062 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:47:54.007Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win NH 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A162", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden runs", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A250", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\nA more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nanotechnology catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:26:24.360Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-reduces-nuclear-stockpile-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIn 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held 3,800 (or fewer) nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:35:25.301Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 192, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:48:42.283Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 225, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T18:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Mexico in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Mexico is Lopez Obrador, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Mexico has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0045819", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9954181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Mexico", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lopez Obrador", - "month_risk": "0.0003739", - "annual_risk": "0.0045819", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "21", - "leader_years": "2.25", - "country_code": "MEX", - "country_abb": "MEX" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Australia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Australia is Morrison, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Australia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 119 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0010002", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9989998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Australia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Morrison", - "month_risk": "0.0000827", - "annual_risk": "0.0010002", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "119", - "leader_years": "2.583333", - "country_code": "AUS", - "country_abb": "AUL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2254-at-close-of-business-on-15-june-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-4-may-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 14-15 June 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:22.188Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, - "numforecasters": 63, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" - }, - { - "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:08:31.214Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1334, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Slovenia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Slovenia is Jansa, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Slovenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0025514", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9974486, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Slovenia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Jansa", - "month_risk": "0.000213", - "annual_risk": "0.0025514", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "29", - "leader_years": "1", - "country_code": "SVN", - "country_abb": "SLV" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOM February 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A260", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump is 2024 POTUS", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A244", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/", @@ -25858,7 +47156,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:19:59.707Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:55.866Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 170, "resolution_data": { @@ -25872,979 +47170,549 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/", + "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n", + "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.\nIf no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:12:14.588Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 106, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/943-will-russia-invade-ukraine-by-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. Metaculus has a now-closed question on the likelihood Russia annexes Ukraine by 2022.Context. A U.S. intelligence report claims Russia has developed plans to invade Ukraine with 175,000 troops as soon as early next year. Ukraine officials estimate that more than 90,000 Russian troops have already amassed at the border, with U.S. intelligence putting the number at 70,000. During a meeting between President Biden and President Putin on December 7, 2021, Putin reportedly demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward toward Russia's borders, guarantees Biden declined to provide. Biden stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, the United States and its allies would respond with \"strong economic measures.\" Last month, Russian ambassadors to the United Nations stated that Russia “never planned, never did, and is never going to [invade Ukraine] unless we’re provoked by Ukraine, or by somebody else.”Resolution details. For purposes of this question, an \"invasion\" requires at least 50,000 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering Ukraine territory. Ukraine territory includes both the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and the rest of the country, but excludes Crimea. An unsuccessful or repelled invasion counts, provided more than 50,000 Russian troops enter Ukraine territory.***This question was proposed by PabloAMC. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:25.394Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 325, - "numforecasters": 140, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2169-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-flying-a-military-aircraft-over-the-territory-of-and-or-the-territorial-waters-surrounding-the-main-island-of-taiwan-without-its-permission-before-1-september-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-taiwan-military-incursions-test-the-limits-of-airspace/a-59398039), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20211002-taiwan-slams-largest-ever-incursion-by-chinese-into-air-defence-zone), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/china-fighter-jets-will-fly-over-taiwan-declare-sovereignty-state-media-says-1583109)). For the purposes of this question, \"territorial waters\" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:06.559Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 288, - "numforecasters": 147, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Mongolia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Mongolia is Khaltmaagiin Battulga, who has been in power for 3.7 years. Mongolia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0088387", - "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9911613, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Mongolia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Khaltmaagiin Battulga", - "month_risk": "0.0004818", - "annual_risk": "0.0088387", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.16", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "3.666667", - "country_code": "MNG", - "country_abb": "MON" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if Sen. Lisa Murkowski is the winner of the 2022 general election for United States Senator from Alaska. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:38.019Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 128125 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9590/pi-covid-19-variant-by-pi-day/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In honor of the [mathematical constant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi) that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as [Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day) by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.\nPi is also the [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the [World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times.\nWill there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?\nThis resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about the next named variant using Pi Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter pi and goes straight to rho (or sigma, tau...) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:47:17.831Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-15T14:16:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2024, South Sudan signs the NPT, according to reputable sources. \nThis does not require that South Sudan actually [accedes](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to the NPT or even that it is seen as likely that South Sudan will do so.\nSee also\n---[Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/new-signatories-of-npt-by-2024/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:18.864Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:08.670Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nWill the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is less than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be more lethal than Delta.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.020000000000000018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:12:02.824Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1367, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. \nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. \n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)\nWill a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:04:53.132Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 152, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-19T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8854/indian-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Indian officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside India, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Indian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:33.744Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7832/3-us-code--15-objections-to-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).\nIf there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.\nIn January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?\nThis question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:26.439Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-05T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:18.871Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 356, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Tajikistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Guyana in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Tajikistan is Rakhmonov, who has been in power for 28.3 years. Tajikistan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "description": "The current leader of Guyana is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Guyana has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0168025", + "probability": "0.0066572", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9831975, + "probability": 0.9933428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Tajikistan", + "country_name": "Guyana", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mohamed Irfaan Ali", + "month_risk": "0.0005583", + "annual_risk": "0.0066572", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "0.5833333", + "country_code": "GUY", + "country_abb": "GUY" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Belarus in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Belarus is Lukashenko, who has been in power for 26.7 years. Belarus has a personal regime type which has lasted for 27 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0057279", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9942721, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Belarus", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Rakhmonov", - "month_risk": "0.003603", - "annual_risk": "0.0168025", - "risk_change_percent": "0.08", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "28.33333", - "country_code": "TJK", - "country_abb": "TAJ" + "leader_name": "Lukashenko", + "month_risk": "0.0003633", + "annual_risk": "0.0057279", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "27", + "leader_years": "26.66667", + "country_code": "BLR", + "country_abb": "BLR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/", + "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_%28geneticist%29):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n", + "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Russian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:05:55.623Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:27.497Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 159, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:49:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Boris Johnson?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160843673", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister ***Updated 25/03/2020***", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Rishi Sunak.", - "probability": 0.29775117180194277, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.10194741208436085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keir Starmer", - "probability": 0.09379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.07815968259800997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Tugendhat", - "probability": 0.06699401365543713, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.0535952109243497, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.024682005030950516, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.03126387303920399, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.02930988097425374, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nadhim Zahawi", - "probability": 0.02930988097425374, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.019539920649502492, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.019539920649502492, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Harper", - "probability": 0.003751664764704479, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "James Cleverly", - "probability": 0.009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Barclay", - "probability": 0.004263255414436908, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tobia Ellwood", - "probability": 0.014429479864247996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kemi Badenoch", - "probability": 0.0031263873039203993, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nigel Farage", - "probability": 0.0014429479864247997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.002131627707218454, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.0018758323823522395, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Burnham", - "probability": 0.001674850341385928, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Johnny Mercer", - "probability": 0.0062527746078407985, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yvette Cooper", - "probability": 0.0010194741208436084, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Bercow", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Miliband", - "probability": 0.0009872802012380207, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.003234193762676275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Angela Rayner", - "probability": 0.0029309880974253744, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Davis", - "probability": 0.0028421702762912717, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Oliver Dowden", - "probability": 0.0012024566553539998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Esther McVey", - "probability": 0.0011723952389701498, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0017053021657747632, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.0013398802731087425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.0013398802731087425, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Theresa May", - "probability": 0.007214739932123998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Damian Hinds", - "probability": 0.0009669239084289894, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ed Davey", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anne Marie Trevelyan", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lisa Nandy", - "probability": 0.002287600466283219, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew Hancock", - "probability": 0.0009769960324751247, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bim Afolami", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Simon Jordan", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Geoffrey Cox", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jo Swinson", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", - "probability": 0.0011165668942572855, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dominic Grieve", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Watson", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emily Thornberry", - "probability": 0.000997783182102255, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ken Clarke", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Margaret Beckett", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Caroline Lucas", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ian Blackford", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Saville-Roberts", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sylvia Hermon", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Harriet Harman", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Philip Hammond", - "probability": 0.0018390513552472936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hilary Benn", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrea Jenkyns", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Cameron", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Helen Whately", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kit Malthouse", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Layla Moran", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Daisy Cooper", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Christine Jardine", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Wera Hobhouse", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alistair Carmichael", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suella Braverman", - "probability": 0.0009379161911761198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nadine Dorries", - "probability": 0.0010194741208436084, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.03126387303920399, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 484943.55 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak., Liz Truss, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Nadhim Zahawi, Priti Patel, Steve Baker, Mark Harper, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Barclay, Tobia Ellwood, Kemi Badenoch, Nigel Farage, Ruth Davidson, Alok Sharma, Andrew Burnham, Johnny Mercer, Yvette Cooper, John Bercow, David Miliband, Rory Stewart, Angela Rayner, David Davis, Oliver Dowden, Esther McVey, Jeremy Corbyn, Sadiq Khan, Andrea Leadsom, Theresa May, Damian Hinds, Ed Davey, Rosena Allin-Khan, Anne Marie Trevelyan, Lisa Nandy, Matthew Hancock, Jess Phillips, Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson, Bim Afolami, Simon Jordan, Geoffrey Cox, Jo Swinson, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Amber Rudd, Dominic Grieve, Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Emily Thornberry, Ken Clarke, Margaret Beckett, Caroline Lucas, Ian Blackford, Liz Saville-Roberts, Sylvia Hermon, Harriet Harman, Philip Hammond, Hilary Benn, Andrea Jenkyns, David Cameron, Helen Whately, Kit Malthouse, Layla Moran, Daisy Cooper, Christine Jardine, Wera Hobhouse, Alistair Carmichael, Suella Braverman, Nadine Dorries, Ben Wallace" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win NC 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A154", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will a legally authorised referendum next take place on Scottish independence?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.166577732", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day of the referendum. This market will be settled as “Not before 2025” at 00:00 on 1st January 2025 if no referendum takes place before this time. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.012223642018468065, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.19980953299418952, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.1731682619282976, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 2025", - "probability": 0.6147985630590448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 28519.18 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024, Not before 2025" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": " ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/", + "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n", + "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an accidental or unauthorised detonation, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon seized from a state actor. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:04.016Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:58.535Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 380, + "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:07:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:07:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Honduras in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will more than 1.5 million people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TSAW-051", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.5 million for the week ending February 06, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nPlease see TSAW in the Rulebook for details and the legally binding terms and conditions. \n\nThe Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for February 06, 2022, or one week after February 06, 2022. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM ET on February 06, 2022.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 2, + "yes_ask": 4, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 9762 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-15 House election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7713/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-15-House-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Fifteenth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Eliza Alvarado", + "probability": 0.37735849056603776, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ruben Ramirez", + "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michelle Vallejo", + "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Julio Garza", + "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vanessa Tijerina", + "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Rigney", + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:58.800Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 225 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Eliza Alvarado, Ruben Ramirez, Michelle Vallejo, Julio Garza, Vanessa Tijerina, John Rigney" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Brunei in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Honduras is Juan Orlando Hernandez, who has been in power for 7.2 years. Honduras has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 39 years", + "description": "The current leader of Brunei is Hassanal Bolkiah, who has been in power for 53.4 years. Brunei has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 53 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0205839", + "probability": "0.0038686", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9794161, + "probability": 0.9961314, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Honduras", - "regime_type": "Presidential", + "country_name": "Brunei", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Juan Orlando Hernandez", - "month_risk": "0.0022181", - "annual_risk": "0.0205839", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.02", - "regime_years": "39", - "leader_years": "7.166667", - "country_code": "HND", - "country_abb": "HON" + "leader_name": "Hassanal Bolkiah", + "month_risk": "0.000211", + "annual_risk": "0.0038686", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.12", + "regime_years": "53", + "leader_years": "53.41667", + "country_code": "BRN", + "country_abb": "BRU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:39.330Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 104, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9584/kbj-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Ketanji Brown Jackson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketanji_Brown_Jackson), born September 14, 1970, is an American attorney and jurist serving as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021.\nIt has been [speculated](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. \nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:04.045Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 11, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:26.486Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 280, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which candidate will win the popular vote at the 2024 US Presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178165812", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions. This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN. If any of the named candidates do not contest the 2024 election they will be settled as losers. Other candidates can be added on request. This market will only be void in the event that the 2024 Presidential Election does not take place, as defined below. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Joe Biden", + "probability": 0.2593087406568834, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris", + "probability": 0.2258495483140598, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump", + "probability": 0.14896459569650752, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pence", + "probability": 0.029172233323899385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tammy Duckworth", + "probability": 0.0014002671995471706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nikki Haley", + "probability": 0.021542572300725704, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amy Klobuchar", + "probability": 0.014002671995471706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.00411843293984462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.00736982736603774, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.007001335997735853, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.01867022932729561, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stacey Abrams", + "probability": 0.00823686587968924, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Deval Patrick", + "probability": 0.0014002671995471706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hillary Clinton", + "probability": 0.029172233323899385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeb Bush", + "probability": 0.0014144113126739097, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.06667939045462717, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Elizabeth Warren", + "probability": 0.028005343990943413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michelle Obama", + "probability": 0.04667557331823902, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.0056010687981886825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eric Holder", + "probability": 0.0014002671995471706, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.00400076342727763, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.07001335997735854, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 13619.16 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Tammy Duckworth, Nikki Haley, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Cuomo, Andrew Yang, Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo, Stacey Abrams, Deval Patrick, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Eric Holder, Tucker Carlson, Ron DeSantis" + }, + { + "title": "Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2236-between-30-december-2021-and-31-may-2022-will-nato-and-or-a-nato-member-state-accuse-russian-national-military-forces-of-invading-ukraine", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/europe/russia-europe-us-nato-ukraine-intl/index.html), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/21/putin-blames-west-for-tensions-as-fears-rise-over-ukraine), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59696450)). For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory", + "probability": 0.23, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:04.368Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 794, + "numforecasters": 245, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.6%?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt6", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.6%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.8641415657116756214119300493168169", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.1358584342883243785880699506831831", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "25", + "liquidity": "50.00", + "tradevolume": "1350.86", + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -26865,7 +47733,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26886,568 +47754,10 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:37:05.027Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 54, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:48:09.790Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 839, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:02.717Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 687, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.\nWill the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?\nThe question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:19:56.499Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 45, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-24T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "BTC hits >=$100K by EOY 2024", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A30", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-07T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/) \n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world’s premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021. \nWill at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?\nThis question will resolve positively if any work presented at Art Basel in 2030 is available for sale as a [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT). Art presented at any of the 2030 Art Basel fairs (Basel, Miami Beach, Hong Kong) will be sufficient to resolve the question. A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\nIf no events are held by Art Basel in 2030, resolution may include events in 2031. If there are no such events by Art Basel between January 1, 2030 to January 1, 2032, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:47:02.023Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 11, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)\nConditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?\nThis question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there is an agreement after 2026 that both US and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually has very similar terms to New START. \nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n--- \n[Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:21.524Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2152-what-will-be-facebook-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-31-may-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/04/1042921981/facebook-whistleblower-renewing-scrutiny-of-social-media-giant)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FB)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $600 billion", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $1.35 trillion", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:38.464Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 477, - "numforecasters": 126, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $600 billion, Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive, More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion, Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.35 trillion" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2124-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-resulting-in-at-least-five-fatalities-before-1-september-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/planning-considerations-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:23.307Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 154, - "numforecasters": 84, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 165 million?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2232-when-will-the-number-of-fully-vaccinated-people-with-a-booster-dose-for-covid-19-in-the-us-reach-or-exceed-165-million", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "There's a renewed push in the US to get COVID-19 vaccine booster shots in as many vaccinated people as possible ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/us-covid-cases-booster-shots-on-the-rise-as-country-nears-christmas.html)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, click the \"Booster Doses***\" title on the table). For historical data, visit https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc, click \"Export,\" and select your file preference. See \"US\" for \"Location,\" and booster doses are labeled \"Additional_Doses\" in the file. As of the launch of this question, the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 41,933,410. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 15 February 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 July 2022", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:11.063Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 217, - "numforecasters": 92, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 15 February 2022, Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022, Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022, Not before 1 July 2022" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/by-2025-tbc-tunnels-longer-than-trumps-wall/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?\nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:09:19.842Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 567, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805/yankees-win-the-2032-world-series-6-games/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?\nWill the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?\nThe question resolves positively if the MLB annual championship that occurs in the year 2032 is won by a team named \"New York Yankees\" in exactly 6 games (e.g. the Yankees win 4 games, and their opponent wins 2).\n--- \nIf a team that was formerly named \"New York Yankees\" wins in 6 games, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf a team with a name that still refers New York city or state wins in 6 games (e.g. Brooklyn Yankees, New York State Yankees), this question resolves positively.\n--- \nIf the MLB changes its rules such that the World Series is played for fewer than 6 games, or more than 13 games (so it would be impossible to win in 6 games), this question resolves negatively.\n--- \nIf the MLB folds into smaller leagues prior to the 2032 World Series, this question resolves negatively.\n--- \nIf the MLB folds into a larger league prior to the 2032 World Series (such as a [Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)), and a team named \"New York Yankees\" still exists, if that team wins the World Series of the larger league in 6 games, this question resolves positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:13:28.368Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:25:16.343Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 193, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThere is concern that Omicron might be deadlier than Delta.\nWill the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is greater than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance increase, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant increase.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be less lethal than Delta.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:11:30.966Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1074, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:38.811Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 100, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_%28company%29) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:22:12.929Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:55.036Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 168, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2094-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of Germany's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2199-what-percentage-of-germany-s-population-will-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-of-1-june-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As Germany faces record high number of COVID-19 infections, vaccination numbers have been object of special attention ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-considers-partial-mandatory-vaccinations/a-59818417), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/13/angela-merkel-urges-germans-to-get-covid-vaccines-quickly-amid-high-infection-rate), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/covid-deniers-and-anti-vaxxers-threaten-german-doctors/a-59805953)). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 June 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=DEU. For example, Germany's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 14 November 2021 was 66.94%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 December 2021: For the purposes of this question, a person is considered fully vaccinated if they have received a single-dose vaccine or both doses of a two-dose vaccine ([OWID FAQ](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#frequently-asked-questions)). This definition will control throughout the duration of the question. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 70.00%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 85.00%", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:12.663Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 373, - "numforecasters": 115, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70.00%, Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive, More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%, Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive, More than 85.00%" - }, - { - "title": "Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2171-between-30-october-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI), [EUR-Lex](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en)). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "title": "Will Joe Biden issue a veto before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7642/Will-Joe-Biden-issue-a-veto-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if President Biden issues a veto of legislation by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying veto shall include a \"pocket veto.\"\nThis market will be resolved based on the summary of vetoes on the senate.gov website, currently available upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -27460,19 +47770,48 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:02.041Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:15.211Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "numforecasters": 48, + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 17731 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:42.082Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 194, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n", + "title": "Will I Get A Kick Out Of You by Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-3", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If I Get A Kick Out Of You by Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -27485,1250 +47824,13 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:01:20.452Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 204, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Oman in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Oman is Haitham ibn Tariq, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Oman has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 279 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.00368", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99632, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Oman", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Haitham ibn Tariq", - "month_risk": "0.0002978", - "annual_risk": "0.00368", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "279", - "leader_years": "1.166667", - "country_code": "OMN", - "country_abb": "OMA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:32.403Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 648, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2156-will-a-cryptocurrency-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-the-nyse-and-or-nasdaq-stock-exchanges-before-31-december-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue ([The Block](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/119365/sec-rolls-decisions-on-four-bitcoin-etf-applications-to-end-of-2021), [CP24](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-clash-grayscales-ceo-says-secs-gensler-shortsighted-in-backing-a-bitcoin-futures-etf-11633271596)). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count ([Investopedia - Stablecoin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp), [Investopedia - CBDC](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:34.829Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 186, - "numforecasters": 72, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:35:47.043Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bolivia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bolivia is Arce, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Bolivia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 0 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0088468", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9911532, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bolivia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Arce", - "month_risk": "0.0008278", - "annual_risk": "0.0088468", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "0", - "leader_years": "0.3333333", - "country_code": "BOL", - "country_abb": "BOL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2176-before-1-january-2023-will-china-and-or-a-host-country-officially-announce-an-agreement-for-the-establishment-of-a-chinese-military-base-in-an-african-country-besides-djibouti", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/us-general-china-has-10-year-contract-for-first-overseas-military-base/), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-africa-china-business-government-and-politics-24f774a952eaabcb38d2b25380b61a62)). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-argentina-china-insight-idUSKCN1PP0I2)). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as \"yes\" ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33115502)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:54.317Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 151, - "numforecasters": 70, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will $ETH flip $BTC in market cap in 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-flip-btc-in-market-cap-in-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the USD-denominated market capitalization of $ETH (Ethereum) will surpass that of $BTC (Bitcoin) at any time by December 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, according to CoinGecko. The resolution source for this market will be the “Market Cap” statistic and historical data section on each of the respective cryptocurrency’s CoinGecko listings currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at any point in 2022 the market cap of $ETH is greater than that of $BTC, often dubbed “The Flippening”. If, by the resolution date, the market cap of $ETH was never greater than that of $BTC at any given state of time, according to CoinGecko, then this market will resolve to “No”. If the links to the sources change, the new changed link sources will be used. In the event that CoinGecko becomes permanently disabled or unavailable, CoinMarketCap will instead be referenced as the resolution source.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2129837513228619322876235515132499", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7870162486771380677123764484867501", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "122", - "liquidity": "973.56", - "tradevolume": "1822.23", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/gc-to-be-caused-by-nanotech-if-it-occurs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:34.793Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 218, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-06-01T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Zora airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zora-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Zora will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3449832559651047730234552012046142", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6550167440348952269765447987953858", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "52", - "liquidity": "2502.18", - "tradevolume": "2593.46", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8669/restrictions-on-us-pres-war-powers-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\nIt is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict.\nWill the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 the current War Powers Resolution is replaced, amended or struck down, via legal challenge, legislation, or executive authority, to further restrict the President’s ability to deploy military force.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:07:01.255Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8150/3000-nonstrategic-weapons-at-end-of-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):\n\"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield. \n[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow.\"\nThe Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). It's therefore not clear precisely how many nonstrategic weapons there are, but it's clear that it's below 3000.\nThe [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that \"Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today\" (as of 2019). FAS estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273).\nHow many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk.\nWill there be >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the most recent estimates available on 12-31-23 from the FAS, across various sources, indicate that there are >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons on 12-31-23. (One way this could occur is if multiple [\"Nuclear Notebook\"](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/) columns on individual countries' nuclear forces each give estimates of those countries' numbers of nonstrategic nuclear warheads, with these estimates summing to >3000.) This includes warheads that are deployed, are in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact. \nIf FAS do not publish in 2023 estimates of the number of nonstrategic weapons possessed in total or at least by the US and Russia, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:30.903Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Chad in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Chad is Deby, who has been in power for 30.3 years. Chad has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0723706", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9276294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Chad", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Deby", - "month_risk": "0.0048578", - "annual_risk": "0.0723706", - "risk_change_percent": "0.06", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "30.25", - "country_code": "TCD", - "country_abb": "CHA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:03.580Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 114, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Does P = NP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/p--np-is-true/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nDoes P = NP?\nIf no award is given by the Clay Institute (between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100) for a proof or disproof of P = NP, this question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:42.964Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 258, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nWill there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2019-01-01 and 2050-01-01, both of these conditions are true:\n1-- \nThere is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.\n[2021-11-24]: Edited to clarify the time constraints.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:30:12.825Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 811, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Uniswap suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Uniswap suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Uniswap is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05444367386191355115151911092254098", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.945556326138086448848480889077459", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "22", - "liquidity": "4000.00", - "tradevolume": "12592.19", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Denmark in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Denmark is Mette Frederiksen, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Denmark has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 120 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0009091", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9990909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Denmark", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mette Frederiksen", - "month_risk": "0.0000753", - "annual_risk": "0.0009091", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "120", - "leader_years": "1.75", - "country_code": "DNK", - "country_abb": "DEN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Bored Ape appear during a SuperBowl LVI Commercial or Halftime Show?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-bored-ape-appear-during-a-superbowl-lvi-commercial-or-halftime-show", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether a Bored Ape NFT will appear within any SuperBowl LVI commercial or as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show. If any Bored Ape NFT, or image of a Bored Ape appears during any SuperBowl LVI Commercial or at all as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/commercials and official footage from the Superbowl LVI Halftime Show, however other credible sources will also suffice.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2944086287312667483222071319417323", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7055913712687332516777928680582677", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "34", - "liquidity": "10668.94", - "tradevolume": "3041.61", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Does P equal BPP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7962/p-versus-bpp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_%28complexity%29). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.\nDoes P equal BPP?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:33:47.185Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Trinidad and Tobago in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Trinidad and Tobago is Rowley, who has been in power for 5.5 years. Trinidad and Tobago has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0033668", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9966332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Trinidad and Tobago", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Rowley", - "month_risk": "0.0002709", - "annual_risk": "0.0033668", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "59", - "leader_years": "5.5", - "country_code": "TTO", - "country_abb": "TRI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a new U.S. Supreme Court justice be confirmed in 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-us-supreme-court-justice-be-confirmed-in-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Senate confirms and names a new justice to the Supreme Court on or before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, if a new justice is announced before the resolution date, but it comes into effect afterwards, this market will resolve to “Yes”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8861243425879265324230677520854042", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1138756574120734675769322479145958", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "130", - "liquidity": "600.00", - "tradevolume": "11503.87", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in St Kitts and Nevis in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of St Kitts and Nevis is Harris, who has been in power for 6.1 years. St Kitts and Nevis has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 38 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0036867", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9963133, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "St Kitts and Nevis", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Harris", - "month_risk": "0.0003015", - "annual_risk": "0.0036867", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "38", - "leader_years": "6.083333", - "country_code": "KNA", - "country_abb": "SKN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7612/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Stacey Abrams", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barrow", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Van Johnson", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Thurmond", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:55.267Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 34870 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Stacey Abrams, John Barrow, Van Johnson, Mike Thurmond" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.3508771929824561, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.2631578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07017543859649122, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.05263157894736841, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:42.791Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 22703089 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, Tucker Carlson, Kristi Noem, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jr., Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Glenn Youngkin, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that former President Donald Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in either the 2022 Republican primary election or the general election for any seat in the United States House of Representatives. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:01.303Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 168653 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:02.035Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\nWill USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:22:58.189Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:35:12.921Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 71, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_%28decryption_program%29#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:14:21.628Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "SCOTUS overturns Roe v. Wade by EOY 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A264", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Sao Tome and Principe in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Sao Tome and Principe is Carvalho, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Sao Tome and Principe has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0211614", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9788386, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Sao Tome and Principe", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Carvalho", - "month_risk": "0.0008311", - "annual_risk": "0.0211614", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "4.5", - "country_code": "STP", - "country_abb": "STP" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7532/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Utah", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Utah U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, a candidate who does not represent either the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, or Green Parties shall be considered an Independent.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.9603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:41.266Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 18919 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\nIn 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n. . .\nOn March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n. . .\nIt remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\nWill women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to 2024-01-06. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to 2024-01-06; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after 2024-01-06 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:14:37.375Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 199, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-13T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-06T06:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 100 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield per weapon of 500kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:05:05.804Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:49.180Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 157, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:43:10.469Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8752/will-omicron-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 25 November, South Africa [announced](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/recording-briefing-on-covid-19-and-vaccination-programme-developments-25-november-2021/) that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 2023, the Omicron variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:11:14.761Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 267, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 12958 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -28849,3798 +47951,18 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:20.069Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:54.580Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 305297 + "shares_volume": 305572 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Sergio Mattarella, Silvio Berlusconi, Rosy Bindi, Mario Draghi, P. Ferdinando Casini, Paolo Gentiloni, Marta Cartabia, Gianni Letta, Matteo Salvini, Elisabetta Casellati, Giuliano Amato, Franco Frattini, Letizia Moratti, Marcello Pera, Giulio Tremonti, Elisabetta Belloni, Andrea Riccardi, Paolo Maddalena, Roberto Cassinelli, Guido De Martini, Guido Crosetto, Sabino Cassese" }, { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S. Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Harriet Hageman", - "probability": 0.7169811320754716, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Cheney", - "probability": 0.16981132075471697, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anthony Bouchard", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chuck Gray", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Denton Knapp", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bryan Miller", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Darin Smith", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bryan Keller", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Robyn Belinskey", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Perry Pendley", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ed Buchanan", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bo Biteman", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Catharine O'Neill", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:31.446Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 41739 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Harriet Hageman, Liz Cheney, Anthony Bouchard, Chuck Gray, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Darin Smith, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Perry Pendley, Ed Buchanan, Bo Biteman, Catharine O'Neill" - }, - { - "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/", + "title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7798/tom-tugendhat-top-tory-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:07.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 576, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Germany, which political coalition will form the next government?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "CDU/CSU = right/center-right FDP = liberalism SPD = center-left Green = ecology Linke = extreme left ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "CDU/CSU-Green-FDP", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "CDU/CSU-SPD-Green", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "SPD-FDP-Green", - "probability": 0.9405940594059407, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "SPD-Linke-Green", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Other", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "CDU/CSU-Green-FDP, CDU/CSU-SPD-Green, CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP, SPD-FDP-Green, SPD-Linke-Green, Other" - }, - { - "title": "Will MetaMask launch a token by March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will have a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the MetaMask product or protocol, and substantiated by MetaMask or ConsenSys via official websites or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf MetaMask has a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1500100783331608606997216292979", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8499899216668391393002783707021", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "44", - "liquidity": "500.00", - "tradevolume": "1702.05", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:51:02.306Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nWill a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? \nThis question will resolve positively if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to January 1, 2030. Any craft would qualify (such as [Venera 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_13)), and the craft need not have operational systems inside the Venetian atmosphere to resolve positively. Credible reports by space agencies such as [NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA) or [ESA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Space_Agency) will qualify as a resolution source.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:20.733Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 625, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-07T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the price of Polygon ($MATIC) be on March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-polygon-matic-be-on-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Polygon ($MATIC) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $0.80, and the upper bound is $3.20. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Long", - "probability": "0.3282311466550046154871939112929863", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Short", - "probability": "0.6717688533449953845128060887070137", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "64", - "liquidity": "1000.00", - "tradevolume": "1402.51", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short" - }, - { - "title": "Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On the evening of July 15, 2016, the world was surprised by news of a military coup in process in Turkey. Top politicians, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, and heads of the military and police were [attacked](http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1471502/turkeys-president-erdogan-minutes-away-from-death-after-coup-plotters-stormed-hotel/) or [detained](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-military-chief-rescue-idUSKCN0ZW0C8), [media outlets were taken over](http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/middleeast/turkey-failed-coup-explainer/), and [armed soldiers took over the streets](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045). After President Erdogan issued a call to action using his mobile phone, [Turkish civilians streamed onto the streets](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-astonishing-pictures-show-violent-clashes-and-mobs-attacking-soldiers-attempting-to-a7140406.html) and [confronted the Turkish military](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/brutal-moment-civilians-throw-stones-and-stamp-on-a-turkish-tank/), ultimately [thwarting the coup](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/turkey-failed-coup-attempt-161217032345594.html). In the aftermath of the coup attempt, the Turkish government blamed Fethullah Gulen and urged the US government to extradite him, while arresting, suspending or firing [hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-minister-idUSKBN15F12G?il=0). Gulen for his part [condemned the coup](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/fethullah-gulen-i-condemn-all-threats-to-turkeys-democracy.html?_r=0) and denied any connection to it. Half a year later, the Turkish government was still [prosecuting Gulen in absentia](http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-puts-270-plotters-on-trial-over-failed-coup-10748757), [sparring with Germany and Greece](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-urges-germany-deny-asylum-coup-linked-soldiers-45127682) about the extradition of Turks allegedly involved in the coup attempt, and warning countries in [Africa](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/turkish-president-lands-in-mozambique-for-talks/2017/01/24/49ffed02-e21f-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.a5a440925941) and [Asia ](http://english.almanar.com.lb/101957)about any involvement with the Gulen movement.\nTurkey has a [history of coups](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html), typically being led by the military, with the stated goal of upholding Kemalist values, including secularism, and restoring order. Historically Turkish politics has been dominated by Kemalism, but over the last fifteen years, [religious parties have gradually become the most influential actors in Turkish politics](https://www.brookings.edu/research/turkey-the-new-model/), including the Sufi and modernist-leaning movement of Fethullah Gulen, and Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (the AKP). The AKP calls its ideology \"conservative democratic,\" focused on increasing religious freedom in the public sphere and economic liberalism; its critics allege [censorship of free press and illiberal authoritarianism](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/opinion/turkeys-authoritarian-drift-election-erdogan.html?_r=0).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.", - "probability": 0.9469540803576163, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.", - "probability": 0.03625608693681129, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.", - "probability": 0.016789832705572445, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt., Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack., Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt." - }, - { - "title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7790/nyc-hurricane-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others.\nWill New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2030, credible media reports indicate that there have been [sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 33 meters per second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) for one minute at 10m above the surface of some point within the city limits of New York City.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:26:08.498Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2025", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A263", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:33:05.959Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 52, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8399/10-or-more-nuclear-armed-states-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). \nA few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. \nOther states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons.\nWill there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?\nThis question will resolve positively if at any time during the period between this question opening and 2035-01-01, at least 3 credible sources report that at least 10 countries have a deployable nuclear weapon.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it needs not be the case that there are 10 or more nuclear-armed states at the start of 2035 specifically; if one or more nuclear-armed states give up nuclear weapons by 2035, but at some point before 2035 there were at least 10 states with deployable nuclear weapons, this question would resolve positively. \nIf a current nuclear-armed state fractures into multiple states and more than one of the successor states then possess deployable weapons, each of those states will count as separate nuclear-armed states for the purposes of this question. (The reason for this is that the successor states will likely have substantially different geopolitical relationships and interests.) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:21.034Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 22, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be Senate majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7544/Who-will-be-Senate-majority-leader-on-Feb-1,-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Senate majority leader at the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/01/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mitch McConnell", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chuck Schumer", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Thune", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Cornyn", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Barrasso", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dick Durbin", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Patty Murray", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joni Ernst", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:51.103Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 46069 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, John Thune, John Cornyn, John Barrasso, Dick Durbin, Patty Murray, Joni Ernst" - }, - { - "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:50:41.013Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 495, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in India from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:04.695Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "At or below 2020 levels", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher by more than 100%", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:01.489Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "\n \n \n\n
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "At or below 2020 levels, Higher by between 0% and 100%, Higher by more than 100%" - }, - { - "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:30.859Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 252, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524/israeli-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.\nWill Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:44:35.496Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:40:12.668Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 127, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Oregon Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7556/Who-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Oregon. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Tina Kotek", - "probability": 0.6796116504854368, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tobias Read", - "probability": 0.1650485436893204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicholas Kristof", - "probability": 0.1262135922330097, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deborah Kafoury", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ellen Rosenblum", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Wheeler", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:16.883Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 60062 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Tina Kotek, Tobias Read, Nicholas Kristof, Deborah Kafoury, Ellen Rosenblum, Ted Wheeler" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Liechtenstein in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Liechtenstein is Hans-Adam II, who has been in power for 31.3 years. Liechtenstein has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 99 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0043437", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9956563, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Liechtenstein", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hans-Adam II", - "month_risk": "0.0003395", - "annual_risk": "0.0043437", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "99", - "leader_years": "31.33333", - "country_code": "LIE", - "country_abb": "LIE" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Myanmar in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Myanmar is Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Myanmar has a party-military regime type which has lasted for 10 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0569972", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9430028, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Myanmar", - "regime_type": "Party-Military", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Aung San Suu Kyi", - "month_risk": "0.0042533", - "annual_risk": "0.0569972", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.09", - "regime_years": "10", - "leader_years": "5", - "country_code": "MMR", - "country_abb": "MYA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:11.228Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 100924 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:39.360Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 782249 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:48:47.725Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 163, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:26:55.459Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on March 20, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-march-20-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, March 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8501892593175565050935755748932848", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1498107406824434949064244251067152", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "148", - "liquidity": "879.12", - "tradevolume": "2118.59", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bhutan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bhutan is Lotay Tshering, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Bhutan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0069432", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9930568, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bhutan", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lotay Tshering", - "month_risk": "0.000542", - "annual_risk": "0.0069432", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "13", - "leader_years": "2.333333", - "country_code": "BTN", - "country_abb": "BHU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:19.102Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 574, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Colombia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Colombia is Ivan Duque, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Colombia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 63 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.004793", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995207, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Colombia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ivan Duque", - "month_risk": "0.0003962", - "annual_risk": "0.004793", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "63", - "leader_years": "2.583333", - "country_code": "COL", - "country_abb": "COL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8009/urbit-devlopment-ongoing-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):\na decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]\nThe aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main).\nWill Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?\n---If there are at least 3 commits in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-01, this question resolves positively. \n---The commit must be made publicly on the codebase. Currently, [this is on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main). If it moves, the official codebase at the new location will be used. \n---If the codebase becomes closed, admins judge whether development can be said to be ongoing, based on activity of the developer team elsewhere (e.g., are they actively promoting the project on [social media](https://twitter.com/urbit)? and [the project blog](https://urbit.org/blog)?). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:35:48.311Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-28T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Burkina Faso in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Burkina Faso is Kabore, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Burkina Faso has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0319995", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9680005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Burkina Faso", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Kabore", - "month_risk": "0.0033682", - "annual_risk": "0.0319995", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "5", - "leader_years": "5.25", - "country_code": "BFA", - "country_abb": "BFO" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:15.143Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 653, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_%28volcano%29#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:56.872Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 187, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:09:03.612Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7640/dominic-cummings-in-power-again/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Dominic Cummings is a [British political strategist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings) most known for his role as Chief Advisor to Boris Johnson from 24 July 2019 until 13 November 2020, and for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n---Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n---holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System) \nWill Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?\nAt question resolution time, a lone Metaculus moderator will consider whether there is a case to be made that resolution is ambiguous. If there is such a case to be made, the question resolves by simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators or admins. Otherwise, the lone Metaculus moderators resolves the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:22:21.566Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Nigeria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Nigeria is Buhari, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Nigeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0065593", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9934407, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Nigeria", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Buhari", - "month_risk": "0.000385", - "annual_risk": "0.0065593", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "22", - "leader_years": "5.833333", - "country_code": "NGA", - "country_abb": "NIG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Bernard Arnault or Jeff Bezos?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-bernard-arnault-or-jeff-bezos", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Bernard Arnault (& family) or Jeff Bezos. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bernard Arnault", - "probability": "0.6999703503993724953870499644211153", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Bezos", - "probability": "0.3000296496006275046129500355788847", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "40", - "liquidity": "3300.00", - "tradevolume": "2346.58", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Bernard Arnault, Jeff Bezos" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Canada in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Canada is Trudeau, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Canada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 89 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0013635", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9986365, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Canada", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Trudeau", - "month_risk": "0.0001116", - "annual_risk": "0.0013635", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "89", - "leader_years": "5.333333", - "country_code": "CAN", - "country_abb": "CAN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:14.390Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 234, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will I Still Have Faith In You by ABBA win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-1", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If I Still Have Faith In You by ABBA has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.\n. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. Important clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 7410 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:06:59.908Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 168, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the French presidential election of 2022, who will be the candidate of Les Républicains (right)?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Will be considered the \"candidate\" of Les Républicains (LR) whoever receives the party's nomination, or baring that, the party's official support on the first round of the election in April 2022. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.6019417475728155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.30097087378640774, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Ciotti", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Philippe Juvin", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Denis Payre", - "probability": 0.03883495145631068, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No one", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michel Barnier, Xavier Bertrand, Eric Ciotti, Philippe Juvin, Denis Payre, Valérie Pécresse, Someone else, No one" - }, - { - "title": "Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. Indeed, the questions were framed as partly intending to get at extinction risk. But how likely is extinction, given a 95% population loss? \n(See also [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100), [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/), and a soon-to-be-released question intended to get at the likelihood of unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse) given a 95% population loss.)\nWill extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million by 2100 and, within 20 years of the population falling below that level, there are no longer any living humans. The extinction could occur at the exact same time as the initial population decline (if some event instantly causes extinction), gradually over the course of 20 years, or anywhere in between.\nThe question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100 but extinction doesn't occur within 20 years. The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:38:58.144Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9182/uk-deaths-from-covid-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "About 75,000 British people died of Covid in 2020 and a roughly similar number in 2021, despite strict lockdown measures. Will we see anything on that scale in 2022?\nWill more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?\nIf, according to the [UK Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), the total cumulative number of deaths on 31 December 2022 is more than 20,000 higher than it was on 31 December 2021 (149,000), then this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:32:20.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 172, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-30T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2028-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:01:19.525Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T23:58:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through May?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7665/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-May", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2022 7:01 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:24.559Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 142389 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:05.323Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 356, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \nThe majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\nWill a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:12:11.264Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T21:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8858/thailands-export-ban-on-rice/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Thailand officials announce an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Thailand, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the King, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Thai legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:54.544Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:37.459Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1363, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2206-which-political-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-northern-ireland-assembly-election", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/celebrations-in-2022-cannot-hide-an-uncertain-future-for-britain), [Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/11/uk-eu-northern-ireland/620716/), [Belfast Telegraph](https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/dup-battling-back-but-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-still-on-course-for-first-minister-41047391.html), [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/part/IV/crossheading/elections-etc)). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., [NI Assembly](http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2017-2022/2017/general/2217.pdf), see Table 5.1).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic Unionist Party", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sinn Féin", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another party", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:02.067Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, - "numforecasters": 118, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin, Another party" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.9150943396226414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Morgan Harper", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joyce Beatty", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:31.091Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 169828 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Morgan Harper, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes" - }, - { - "title": "How many votes to confirm Sarah Bloom Raskin as Fed vice chair by April 15?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7720/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Sarah-Bloom-Raskin-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-April-15", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Sarah Bloom Raskin (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "48 or fewer", - "probability": 0.4672897196261681, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "49", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "50", - "probability": 0.2242990654205607, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "51", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "52", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "53", - "probability": 0.046728971962616814, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "54", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "55", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "56", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "57 or more", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:00.259Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 4490 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:03.627Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 261, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)\nWill the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:03:37.676Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:57:07.016Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 305, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.", - "probability": 0.8474962690751916, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.", - "probability": 0.07757191512692231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.", - "probability": 0.06511457976886398, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.", - "probability": 0.009817236029022127, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.625Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome., The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people., The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment., The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based." - }, - { - "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.6851851851851851, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.1111111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.05555555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:37.806Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1008075 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the United Arab Emirates' ranking in the Global Food Security Index for 2022, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2142-what-will-be-the-united-arab-emirates-ranking-in-the-global-food-security-index-for-2022-according-to-the-economist-intelligence-unit", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The UAE's ranking fell from 21st in 2019 to 42nd in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic ([u.ae](https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/food-security/global-food-security-index), [Food Security Index - UAE](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country/Details#United%20Arab%20Emirates)). The outcome will be determined using data for 2022 as provided by the Global Food Security Index, expected to be released in 2023 ([Food Security Index](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 55th", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 55th and 41st", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 40th and 26th", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 25th", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:51.699Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, - "numforecasters": 37, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 55th, Between 55th and 41st, Between 40th and 26th, Higher than 25th" - }, - { - "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:37.627Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 188, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:44.860Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1030035 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win control of the US Senate in the 2022 midterm elections?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2162-which-party-will-win-control-of-the-us-senate-in-the-2022-midterm-elections", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "As of 15 October 2021, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the Senate in the 2020 elections ([270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022)). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic Party", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican Party", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:16.819Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 509, - "numforecasters": 275, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8415841584158416, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.15841584158415842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:57.647Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 106726 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:22:23.500Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 96, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/millennium-prize-solution-before-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nWill another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:53.128Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 236, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected to be the next President of Brazil as a result of the 2022 Brazilian General Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180434883", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2022. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of Brazil on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of the Brazil, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.2847526106403388, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva", - "probability": 0.6077037422202353, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Fernando Haddad", - "probability": 0.007666416440316815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Flávio Dino", - "probability": 0.0009966341372411858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ciro Gomes", - "probability": 0.013288455163215812, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Guilherme Boulos", - "probability": 0.002166595950524317, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "João Doria", - "probability": 0.01423763053201694, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "João Amoêdo", - "probability": 0.0009966341372411858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marina Silva", - "probability": 0.001533283288063363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sergio Moro", - "probability": 0.06040206892370824, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Luciano Huck", - "probability": 0.0015100517230927058, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eduardo Leite", - "probability": 0.004745876844005647, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 81479.03 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Fernando Haddad, Flávio Dino, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, João Doria, João Amoêdo, Marina Silva, Sergio Moro, Luciano Huck, Eduardo Leite" - }, - { - "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:41:38.619Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 93, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T17:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the CDC identify a **variant of high consequence** by March 1, 2022? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VOHC-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the CDC identifies a variant of high consequence by March 1st, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to no. Please see VOHC in the rulebook for more details. . The resolution source is: The CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 5, - "yes_ask": 7, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 215860 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-8", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Montero (Call Me By Your Name) by Lil Nas X has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 26608 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:32:12.667Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2048-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-headline-inflation-in-the-us-as-measured-by-the-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-june-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in July 2022 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For May 2021, the rate was 5.0%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 0.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "5.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:47.024Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1229, - "numforecasters": 548, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.0%, Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one thousand offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 4 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 4 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:23.360Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Germany in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Germany is Merkel, who has been in power for 15.3 years. Germany has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.001601", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.998399, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Germany", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Merkel", - "month_risk": "0.0001158", - "annual_risk": "0.001601", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "15.33333", - "country_code": "DEU", - "country_abb": "GMY" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden issue a veto before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7642/Will-Joe-Biden-issue-a-veto-before-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if President Biden issues a veto of legislation by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying veto shall include a \"pocket veto.\"\nThis market will be resolved based on the summary of vetoes on the senate.gov website, currently available upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:45.272Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 17731 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.820754716981132, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gary Black", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Latham Saddler", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kelly Loeffler", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Perdue", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Geoff Duncan", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kelvin King", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Buddy Carter", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:11.687Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 809883 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Latham Saddler, Doug Collins, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones, Kelvin King, Buddy Carter" - }, - { - "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:47:15.855Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8662/chinas-nuclear-arsenal-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"](https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.\nWill China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?\nThis resolves positively if China is reported to have achieved 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 according to the FAS ([https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status…](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)).\nThis resolves negatively if no such reports happen by 2030. \nThis resolves ambiguously if the political entity of 'China' dissolves or otherwise changes significantly.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:06:45.468Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2233-before-23-june-2022-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his agenda are facing a number of challenges, including Brexit, COVID-19, and scandals ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/boris-johnsons-infrastructure-schemes-will-face-opposition), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/boris-johnson-bad-month-polls-4606bf26-c5bc-415f-aa3f-1efe959ee36c.html), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211219-uk-brexit-negotiator-frost-resigns-in-further-blow-to-pm-johnson), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/14/uk-covid-live-lateral-flow-tests-unavailable-online-england-boris-johnson-booster-coronavirus-latest-updates)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:09.494Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 954, - "numforecasters": 359, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Katie Britt", - "probability": 0.4672897196261682, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mo Brooks", - "probability": 0.26168224299065423, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Durant", - "probability": 0.21495327102803738, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lynda Blanchard", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Shelby", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Merrill", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Moore", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Sessions", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jessica Taylor", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:57.392Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 137951 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Katie Britt, Mo Brooks, Mike Durant, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, Jessica Taylor" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Ghana in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Ghana is Akufo-Addo, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Ghana has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0055822", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9944178, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Ghana", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Akufo-Addo", - "month_risk": "0.0004081", - "annual_risk": "0.0055822", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "4.166667", - "country_code": "GHA", - "country_abb": "GHA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Hop Protocol airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hop-protocol-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Hop Protocol will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3420131528280667454039378509568034", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6579868471719332545960621490431966", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "79", - "liquidity": "601.73", - "tradevolume": "2362.26", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Colorado Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7569/Who-will-win-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Colorado. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Heidi Ganahl", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greg Lopez", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "D. Neuschwanger", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George Brauchler", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Benjamin Huseman", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:37.819Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 18078 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Heidi Ganahl, Greg Lopez, D. Neuschwanger, George Brauchler, Benjamin Huseman" - }, - { - "title": ">=50 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A170", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Kamala Harris is nominated to SCOTUS by EOY 2024", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A256", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-29T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:35:57.707Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 112, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).\nWill marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?\nIf recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (excluding anomalies that last for less than 6 months) prior to the final day of 2040, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\nIf the surface of the Earth changes sufficiently drastically to make the described land area ill-defined, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:24:28.775Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 81, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2021, which scenario about the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic will the U.S. government officially consider more likely?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "On May 26, president Biden in a statement said the majority of the intelligence community had “coalesced” around two scenarios - animal link or lab leak - but “do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other.” He revealed that two agencies lean toward the animal link and “one leans more toward” the lab-leak theory, “each with low or moderate confidence.” He then ordered the intelligence community to come back to him in 90 days with a more definitive report. Resolution Criteria - Officially - The statement would have to be made or confirmed by a relevant member of the executive branch: the president, the director of national intelligence, the secretary of state, or the press secretary. - More likely - U.S. intelligence agencies report three levels of analytic confidence for their assessments: low, moderate, and high ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org)). To settle the question, the official statement would have to report an aggregate \"high\" or \"moderate to high\" confidence, across relevant intelligence agencies, that one scenario is the most likely. - Deadline - The question will be settled at the latest on Dec 31, 2021, but it would resolve as soon as the government announces that it has concluded that one scenario is more likely than the others. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Animal-to-human transmission", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Other origin", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Can't decide", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Animal-to-human transmission, Leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Other origin, Can't decide" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Brazil in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Brazil is Bolsonaro, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Brazil has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 36 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0042516", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9957484, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Brazil", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Bolsonaro", - "month_risk": "0.0003469", - "annual_risk": "0.0042516", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "36", - "leader_years": "2.166667", - "country_code": "BRA", - "country_abb": "BRA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\nLogic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:36.100Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 174, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:59:43.777Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 147, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:32.171Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 349, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:39.714Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 343, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 2024", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A3", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2020-11-05T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8516/50-of-us-adults-own-ar-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\nan enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).\nWill more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if anytime before January 1, 2050, a credible survey of adults in the US suggests that more than 50% of US adults own any type of personal augmented reality device.\nFor the purposes of this question, a personal augmented reality device is defined as one which is portable and intended to accompany a person from place to place, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment. A handheld smartphone which is occasionally used as an augmented reality device would not qualify (as AR is not its primary use).\nWhere there is reason to believe a survey captures a significant number of devices that do not qualify for question resolution the admins shall use their best judgement or use an alternate survey or method if available, or resolve the question as ambiguous at their discretion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:58.290Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T21:14:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:18:23.017Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Malawi in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Malawi is Chakewera, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Malawi has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0141187", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9858813, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Malawi", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Chakewera", - "month_risk": "0.0007573", - "annual_risk": "0.0141187", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.21", - "regime_years": "27", - "leader_years": "0.75", - "country_code": "MWI", - "country_abb": "MAW" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Nauru in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Nauru is Aingimea, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Nauru has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 53 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0072989", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9927011, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Nauru", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Aingimea", - "month_risk": "0.0020364", - "annual_risk": "0.0072989", - "risk_change_percent": "0.16", - "regime_years": "53", - "leader_years": "1.583333", - "country_code": "NRU", - "country_abb": "NAU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be over 275,000 **new COVID-19 cases** on Wednesday in the US?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CASE-129", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for February 02, 2022, is greater than 275,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see CASE in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis market will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 02, 2022 or February 09, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 89, - "yes_ask": 91, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 11944 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the Republican primary in 2023/2024", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A71", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **unemployment rate** (U-3) be above 3.7% in January?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/U3-009", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the unemployment rate (U-3) is above 3.7% in January 2022 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see U3 in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for January 2022, or February 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM ET. The market will always close on February 4 at 8:25 AM ET.. The resolution source is: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 78, - "yes_ask": 81, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 7114 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:41:55.822Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 232, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": ">=47 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A167", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which candidate will win the popular vote at the 2024 US Presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178165812", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions. This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN. If any of the named candidates do not contest the 2024 election they will be settled as losers. Other candidates can be added on request. This market will only be void in the event that the 2024 Presidential Election does not take place, as defined below. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.2595060636216558, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.22602141025111955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.1490779514422278, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.029194432157436275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tammy Duckworth", - "probability": 0.0014013327435569414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.021558965285491404, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Klobuchar", - "probability": 0.014013327435569413, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.004121566892814533, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.007375435492404954, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.0070066637177847065, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.018684436580759217, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stacey Abrams", - "probability": 0.008243133785629067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deval Patrick", - "probability": 0.0014013327435569414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.029194432157436275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeb Bush", - "probability": 0.0014154876197544862, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.07375435492404954, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.028026654871138826, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.038925909543248365, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.005605330974227766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Holder", - "probability": 0.0014013327435569414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.004003807838734118, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.07006663717784707, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 13589.15 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Tammy Duckworth, Nikki Haley, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Cuomo, Andrew Yang, Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo, Stacey Abrams, Deval Patrick, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Eric Holder, Tucker Carlson, Ron DeSantis" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russia ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8855/russian-export-ban-on-wheat-/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Russia ban export of wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Russian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Russia, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Russian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:38.920Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Uzbekistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Uzbekistan is Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Uzbekistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0095507", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9904493, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Uzbekistan", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Shavkat Mirziyoyev", - "month_risk": "0.0004444", - "annual_risk": "0.0095507", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "4.5", - "country_code": "UZB", - "country_abb": "UZB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:59:54.230Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8032/iran-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.\nWill Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Iranian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:36:35.323Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 54, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:44:04.365Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.\nThis question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.\nWill the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?\nThis question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:10.836Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-14T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8110/saudi-israel-normalization-if-iran-bomb/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.\nWill Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?\nIf [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:39:29.454Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \nIf there is no positive confirmation by 31 December 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous. \nWill the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:08:15.820Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2041, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:34:29.496Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T20:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T02:14:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Despite widespread rumors, Bill Gates, formerly the richest man in the world, has yet to announce a program to implant brain-computer interfaces in the world population. [Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-id2020/) rated the following claim false:\nBill Gates ... seeks to \"microchip\" the world population\nHowever, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already [implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53956683):\nElon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface.\nWill Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible reports say that Bill Gates (or the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or any other foudation of which he is the founder) owns a stake in any company or non-profit, or made a grant to any company, non-profit, or researcher, that has implanted a brain-computer interface in at least one person before the resolution date.\nIf the company in question was public prior to Gates obtaining a stake in it, then he must own at least 1% of the company and a minimum of $10 million for this to resolve positively. \n", + "description": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\nWill Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Tom Tugendhat holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -32653,1756 +47975,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:40:34.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 69, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-22T12:17:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T13:17:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8638/non-nuclear-armed-state-and-a-nuc-detonation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/).\nAt least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?\nCurrently, [there are 9 nuclear-armed states](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/): Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf a state that isn't currently nuclear-armed becomes nuclear-armed before 2030, a fatality in that state while it is nuclear-armed can count towards positive resolution of this question.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the US.\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Israel](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8637/fatality-in-israel-from-a-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:05:21.597Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Eritrea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Eritrea is Afeworki, who has been in power for 27.8 years. Eritrea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0143098", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9856902, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Eritrea", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Afeworki", - "month_risk": "0.0009478", - "annual_risk": "0.0143098", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "27.83333", - "country_code": "ERI", - "country_abb": "ERI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump is on the ballot for President in the Republican primary in 2023/2024 ", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A70", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:56:55.442Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 59, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:45:55.615Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2113-what-will-be-the-producer-price-index-for-internet-advertising-sales-in-june-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After years of steady declines, the price of Internet advertising began to rise in the summer of 2020 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU365), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ppi.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Internet advertising space sales, excluding Internet ads sold by print publishers\" (Commodity code 36-5) in June 2022, expected in July 2022 ([BLS - PPI Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm)). For June 2021, the unadjusted index was 65.3 ([BLS PPI Report - June 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-june-2021.pdf), see page 24). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"36 Advertising space and time sales.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"365 Internet advertising sales, excluding Internet advertising sold by print publishers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Add to selection,\" and \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 60.0", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "84.0 or higher", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:29.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 139, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 60.0, Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive, Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0, Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive, Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0, 84.0 or higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8484/trafalgar-group-vs-538-polling-average-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some [have argued](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others [have suggested](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.\n[Trafalgar Group](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/) is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been [criticized](https://web.archive.org/web/20210915164337/https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1437984246703038465) by some [political](https://web.archive.org/web/20200828150653/https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299362704101175302) [forecasters](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309175524/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301894366886326272) as [inaccurate](https://web.archive.org/web/20201029155819/https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321843425268948992) or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a [C- pollster rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group) to an [A-](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/), and in a podcast episode Nate Silver [apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-gold-standard-for-polling-has-changed/).\nIf there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group.\nWill Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?\nResolution will be determined by comparing the performance of the most recent poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for each of the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections in the 2022 elections taking place on November 8, 2022, to the 538 polling average on the day after the final day of the corresponding Trafalgar poll. The difference between the top two candidates by final vote share will be compared to the difference between those candidates in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and final Trafalgar Polls. The average absolute value of the difference between actual result and polling will be calculated for each. If the Trafalgar Group average difference is closer to zero than that of FiveThirtyEight then this resolves positively.\nRaces where Trafalgar Group does not produce a poll within one month of the election date will not be included in the average. In the event the average difference for FiveThirtyEight and Trafalgar Group is the same this resolves ambiguously.\nResolution Example Using Fake Numbers:\nSuppose for three races the final results were as follows, where positive values mean the Democrat was ahead of the Republican in the final results and polls. TG stands for Trafalgar Group.\nRace Final Result TG Final Poll TG Error 538 Polling Avg 538 Error \nA\n+2.3\n+1.5\n0.8\n+3.1\n0.8\nB\n+1.2\n-1.1\n2.3\n+2.5\n1.3\nC\n-3.4\n-1.2\n2.2\n-4.0\n0.6\nBased on the above the average error of the Trafalgar Group would be 1.77 and the average error of the FiveThirtyEight polling average would be 0.90. If the example were all of the elections being counted this question would resolve negatively since the FiveThirtyEight error is closer to zero.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:55:43.644Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T19:28:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "The future of COVID-19 is an open question, as \"next waves\" remain possible. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO in its global data file (covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv). In the downloaded CSV file, sum the \"New_cases\" column data by date. Seven-day medians will be calculated from those data. The question will resolve using the data available no later than 1 April 2022, though the question would close early if requisite data indicate a seven-day median greater than the highest bin as of at least 14 calendar days after the date of all pertinent data. At question launch, the WHO data indicated that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world was 778,827 in January 2021 (goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO_Case_and_Death_Data_as_of_31_March_2021.xlsx).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 100,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 400,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 400,000 and 800,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 800,000", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:00.254Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 400,000, Between 400,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.4622641509433962, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Perdue", - "probability": 0.45283018867924524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marjorie Greene", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ames Barnett", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kandiss Taylor", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:10.887Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 644558 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, David Perdue, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Marjorie Greene, Ames Barnett, Kandiss Taylor" - }, - { - "title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.6456692913385826, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", - "probability": 0.007874015748031496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", - "probability": 0.007874015748031496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.031496062992125984, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.30708661417322836, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abshir Aden Ferro, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Someone else, No election in 2021" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit was the decision to [“establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, [and] Lithuania”](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm) in the face of up to 50,000 Russian troops being able to be deployed [within a few days](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.).\nThe Russian annexation of Crimea and support of separatist forces in Donbass has, at least in part, been attributed and explained by the high number of ethnic Russians living in these areas. According to estimations there are roughly [1 million ethnic Russians spread out over all three Baltic countries](http://www.hscentre.org/uncategorized/hard-and-soft-power-an-analysis-of-russian-influence-in-the-baltic-states/) , directly along the WMD (Russia’s Western Military District). Importantly, the fraction of ethnic Russians is significantly higher in the Eastern-most municipalities in all three countries and ranges from 5.8% (Lithuania) to 26.9% (Latvia) of the total population to over 40% (Lithuania) or 60% (Latvia/Estonia) in some [Eastern municipalities](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6cb4f0a7dcd64278b52840a7dc364127). This is a pattern akin to that of Donbass (and in some aspects to Crimea) that provides some prima facie reason to expect Russian involvement of some kind or another. \nA [2018 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/three-escalation-scenarios-pub-75882) has outlined three escalation scenarios: deliberate escalation (in which Russia attempts a land grab in the Baltics), inadvertent escalation (in which Russia capitalises on a domestic crisis and is then driven by domestic pressure to threaten to intervene), and accidental escalation (in which an intervention is caused by an unrelated accident). Even though each individual scenario is quite unlikely, the implications are significant, especially with regard to the potential of a nuclear escalation, and because [“safeguarding the security of the Baltic states is particularly important for NATO’s credibility and for Europe’s security”](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.) more generally.\nWill Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russia annexes any territory belonging (as of December 2021) to the countries of Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia before January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports. This will resolve positively if this annexation occurs for any length of time. This question will resolve negatively if Russia does not annex any such territory. For the purposes of this question, \"annexation\" means the posession or control of a territory, by means of force or without the consent of the Baltic nation's government.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:12:45.374Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 94, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2180-what-percentage-of-all-light-vehicle-sales-in-the-us-will-be-either-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-phevs-or-all-electric-vehicles-evs-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues ([Power Technology](https://www.power-technology.com/news/electric-vehicle-sales-surge-in-2021/), [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-turning-point-for-us-auto-dealers-the-unstoppable-electric-car)). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 ([Oak Ridge National Laboratory](https://tedb.ornl.gov/archive/)). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year ([TEDB - Edition 39 (2021)](https://tedb.ornl.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/TEDB_Ed_39.pdf#page=182), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:46.498Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 179, - "numforecasters": 69, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.0%, Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0%" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8444/tesla-most-valuable-traded-co-before-23/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), and Google parent Alphabet.\nWill Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:54:18.878Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 128, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:54:50.791Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 476, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-17T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:58.464Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party's nominee will win the next French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176649734", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured parties may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Should a Party change only its name and maintain its original composition, then that Party will continue to trade under its original name. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "En Marche!", - "probability": 0.7674135124859919, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Republicans", - "probability": 0.1451863402000525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "National Rally", - "probability": 0.06931476886970249, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "La France insoumise", - "probability": 0.013429736468504858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Socialist Party", - "probability": 0.0035812630582679624, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Debout la France", - "probability": 0.0010743789174803887, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 49785.03 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "En Marche!, The Republicans, National Rally, La France insoumise, Socialist Party, Debout la France" - }, - { - "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:40:19.094Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 182, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 was against a battlefield target. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict (unless credible media reporting widely considers a city to be the primary target of the detonation, in which case it will not be seen as a battlefield target even if it is close to a frontline). If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. \nSee also:\n--- \n[What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:01:52.828Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 43, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Moldova in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Moldova is Aureliu Ciocoi, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Moldova has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0059863", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9940137, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Moldova", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Aureliu Ciocoi", - "month_risk": "0.000465", - "annual_risk": "0.0059863", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "MDA", - "country_abb": "MLD" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q4 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q4-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3442557488425018686060745828897135", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6557442511574981313939254171102865", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "36", - "liquidity": "3322.60", - "tradevolume": "1384.48", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:06:56.624Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 55, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-9", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 18358 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:36.376Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 207, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-07-22T19:47:11Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Hungary in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Hungary is Orban, who has been in power for 10.8 years. Hungary has a party regime type which has lasted for 1 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0030037", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9969963, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Hungary", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Orban", - "month_risk": "0.000265", - "annual_risk": "0.0030037", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "1", - "leader_years": "10.83333", - "country_code": "HUN", - "country_abb": "HUN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).\nWill Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?\nThis question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:29.145Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:06:22.185Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 122, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:36:57.205Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/374-how-will-the-number-of-japanese-air-force-responses-to-threats-to-japan-s-territorial-airspace-by-chinese-military-aircraft-change-over-the-next-three-years", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Related question. We previously published a version of this question for Japanese FY 2020.  Context. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force), typically in April of each year. The years being forecasted are the Japanese Fiscal Year, which for FY 2021 is April 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022.***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * * \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:30.250Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 206, - "numforecasters": 50, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:10.583Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 203, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:45:07.537Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:33:22.666Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 159, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Namibia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Namibia is Geingob, who has been in power for 6.0 years. Namibia has a party regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0062271", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9937729, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Namibia", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Geingob", - "month_risk": "0.0004814", - "annual_risk": "0.0062271", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "6", - "country_code": "NAM", - "country_abb": "NAM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:32:44.427Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Turkmenistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Turkmenistan is Berdymukhammedov, who has been in power for 14.3 years. Turkmenistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0061164", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9938836, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Turkmenistan", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Berdymukhammedov", - "month_risk": "0.0003737", - "annual_risk": "0.0061164", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "14.25", - "country_code": "TKM", - "country_abb": "TKM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOM January 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A259", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:49:25.619Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 407, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-29T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:45:28.903Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:15:59.179Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8859/ukraine-export-ban-on-wheat-by-42023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Ukrainian officials announce an export ban for at least one type of wheat anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Ukraine, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Ukrainian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:59.696Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:56.087Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:24:04.974Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/382-how-will-the-percentage-of-smic-revenue-from-14-28-nm-chips-or-smaller-change-over-the-next-three-years", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Context. China depends on the U.S. and its allies for advanced semiconductor chips and the manufacturing equipment required to make them, which leaves it vulnerable to U.S. export controls. To reduce its dependence, China has prioritized developing its domestic semiconductor industry. China is currently focusing on 28 nm chips—viewed as the dividing line between mid and high-end chips—and 14 nm chips. A recent GlobalData report states that for China, “achieving scale at 28nm this year will be highly significant in the longer-term process of developing a more complete Chinese domestic semiconductor ecosystem.” Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is China's leading manufacturer of semiconductor chips. It began commercial production of 28 nm chips in 2015 and 14 nm chips in 2019. Industry observers expect SMIC to ramp up its production of 28 nm chips in 2021 and of 14 nm chips in 2022. A bottleneck for China’s indigenous production of advanced chips is the photolithography equipment needed to manufacture them. SMIC currently relies on equipment from ASML, a Dutch company, which is yielding to U.S. pressure not to sell photolithography equipment to China. But Shanghai Microelectronic Equipment is expected to have photolithography equipment capable of making 28 nm chips by the 2021 Q4. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on SMIC quarterly financial reports. The historical and forecasted data is revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller as a percentage of total revenue. The percentage is calculated on a four-quarter rolling basis. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. ***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.* * * \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:27.227Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 161, - "numforecasters": 48, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:48:20.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 332, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-31T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due \"other risks\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/gc-caused-by-other-if-gc-occurs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nThe Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\", i.e. other than those listed above?\nThe question resolves: \n--- \npositively if a global catastrophe occurs that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100 and none of the listed questions resolve positively\n--- \nambiguously if a global catastrophe occurs and any of the listed questions resolve ambiguously\n--- \nambiguously if no global catastrophe occurs\n--- \nnegatively if a global catastrophe occurs and are attributatable to any of the listed causes, such that at least one of them resolves positively\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:25:33.841Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 20, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:12:46.537Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 571, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8005/coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2nd-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),\nIs Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.\nHe also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”\nWill Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2nd 2023 (Pacific Time),\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023\n\"Credible media\" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:35:43.163Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the plaintiffs in **Carson v. Makin** on constitutional grounds?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CARVMAK-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds in Carson v. Makin, then the market resolves to Yes. A ruling in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds includes a holding that Maine’s prohibition on the use of state-aid to “sectarian” schools is unconstitutional. A ruling is still considered “in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds” if the broader prohibition is struck down on constitutional grounds even if the particular schools that the plaintiffs wish to send their children to (Bangor Christian and Temple Academy) still cannot receive public funding. \n\nThe above is a summary of the terms and conditions. Please see CARVMAK in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and familiarize themselves with the terms and conditions prior to trading on the market.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Judgments of the Court and Opinions of the Court from the Supreme Court of the United States. Such opinions may include slip opinions, bench opinions and per curiam opinions, and includes opinions and judgments that are posted to the Supreme Court’s website. Dissents and concurrences are not included in the Underlying. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 86, - "yes_ask": 89, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 5456 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that the [rockets carried sarin](http://info.publicintelligence.net/UN-SyriaChemicalAttack.pdf), a deadly nerve agent used as a chemical weapon.\nThere was initial skepticism that the Syrian government would have ordered such an attack, risking retaliation by the US. But information published by the US, UN, and Human Rights Watch during the following weeks convinced Western public opinion that the Syrian government was indeed responsible. This information included:\n1--Proof that the [volcano rockets found in Zamalka were locally manufactured by the government](https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack). \n2--[Rocket trajectories reported by the UN that were shown to intersect at a Syrian army base](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/world/middleeast/un-data-on-gas-attack-points-to-assads-top-forces.html). \n3--Detection of sarin, which was known to be held by the Syrian government. \n4--[Reports by the US government that the rockets had been launched from government territory](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21). \n5--Finally, [Syria’s agreement to dismantle their chemical weapons program](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Destruction_of_Syria%27s_chemical_weapons) was further seen as an admission of guilt. At that point the issue mostly disappeared from public discourse. \nHowever, over time, some of this evidence has been found to be unreliable, while new evidence has surfaced that seems to better support the hypothesis that opposition forces were behind the attack. These include:\n1--Analysis of the rocket’s range showing that it could not have been launched from the army base initially suspected as the origin. \n2--[Errors in the UN trajectory calculations](http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/) that, together with the new rocket range calculation, point to a launch from opposition territory. \n3--Evidence of multiple instances in which the opposition used sarin or [tried to acquire it](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/turkish-syrian-jihadis-chemical-court.html). \n4--[Videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcbBTjh2EU) apparently showing an opposition group (Liwa al-Islam) launching chemical rockets, which match the time and location of the attack on Ghouta. \nThis attack, and others that followed, are the subject of heated international debate, which significantly increased the risk of a US-Russian military conflict on at least three occasions. The world clearly needs an unbiased analysis of this case using advanced inference tools.\n\nUpdate: In June 2021, the videos of the event were corroborated as authentic. They were matched to a field within opposition controlled territory, and that field has been shown to be in the intersection of seven trajectories calculated from images of the impact sites. [See additional evidence](https://blog.rootclaim.com/new-evidence-2013-sarin-attack-in-ghouta-syria).\n\nWe now consider this issue closed, and no longer see a need for a probabilistic analysis, as the new discoveries are clear enough to understand using standard human reasoning. We're leaving the analysis here for reference, and recording our original estimate: 87% Opposition, 13% Syrian army.\n\nNote: While we don’t expect anyone to apply at this point, the Rootclaim $100,000 debate challenge is still available for this issue. [Read more here](http://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.", - "probability": 0.036109738906225514, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.", - "probability": 0.9638902610937745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.624Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack., Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack." - }, - { - "title": "Will Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-5", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 26612 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will MetaMask launch a token by June 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-june-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will have a live token by June 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the MetaMask product or protocol, and substantiated by MetaMask or ConsenSys via official websites or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf MetaMask has a live token by June 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5451467465195038783222725843764865", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4548532534804961216777274156235135", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "26", - "liquidity": "3500.00", - "tradevolume": "1186.92", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US average more than one million COVID-19 cases per day by February 1?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-010", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 1 million for a single day between Issuance and February 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occurred, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for February 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 210568 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in United Arab Emirates in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of United Arab Emirates is Khalifa Al Nahayan, who has been in power for 16.3 years. United Arab Emirates has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0036151", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9963849, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "United Arab Emirates", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Khalifa Al Nahayan", - "month_risk": "0.0002047", - "annual_risk": "0.0036151", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "50", - "leader_years": "16.33333", - "country_code": "ARE", - "country_abb": "UAE" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. \nQuestions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea. \nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:11:55.819Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 225, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:35:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:35:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2242-before-4-january-2023-will-a-united-states-supreme-court-seat-be-vacated", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/09/09/1035092720/progressives-want-justice-stephen-breyer-to-retire-his-response-not-yet), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/politics/stephen-breyer-gop-blockade-biden-supreme-court-pick/index.html)). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/oconnor070105.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:45.768Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 253, - "numforecasters": 103, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Cambodia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Cambodia is Hun Sen, who has been in power for 23.7 years. Cambodia has a party regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0096552", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9903448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Cambodia", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hun Sen", - "month_risk": "0.001734", - "annual_risk": "0.0096552", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "23.66667", - "country_code": "KHM", - "country_abb": "CAM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on December 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, \"Justice\" means either a Chief Justice or an Associate Justice.\nConfirmation of a sitting Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:57.659Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 263513 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:31:38.635Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 220, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" @@ -34412,440 +47989,10 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", + "title": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6424/substack-to-join-cancel-culture/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:39:18.255Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 582, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2253-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-afghanistan-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/15/famine-new-battleground-for-displaced-afghans-a-photo-essay), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/famine-looms-afghanistan-leaving-millions-hungry-rcna10400), [IPC](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:24.460Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 69, - "numforecasters": 53, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Belize in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Belize is Juan Antonio Briceno, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Belize has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0049494", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9950506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Belize", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Juan Antonio Briceno", - "month_risk": "0.0004331", - "annual_risk": "0.0049494", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "40", - "leader_years": "0.3333333", - "country_code": "BLZ", - "country_abb": "BLZ" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8392/nuclear-attacks-and-global-cereal-yields/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nIf there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?\nThis question conditions on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations in a single conflict before 2050. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThe above condition is met, and\n2-- \nAverage global cereal yields over the 5 years following the end of the nuclear conflict that met that above condition are at least 5% lower than the average in the 5 years preceding the nuclear conflict.\nCrop yield data will be taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (or another credible organization).\nNote that crop yields are currently rising over time, so a 5% decline in the 5 years following the conflict compared to the 5 years before the conflict corresponds to a >5% decline compared to what would be expected under normal conditions - i.e., a >5% decline compared to what would occur if we extrapolated the current trend forwards.\nIf a relevant source gives a relevant estimate but in the form of a range, this question can resolve positively as long as the midpoint of the range is 5% or higher.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to discern whether the decline in cereal yields was caused by the nuclear detonations. \nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over territory owned by the US\".\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in yields but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:44.337Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:36.751Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 186, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-04-10T03:32:13Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Pakistan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Pakistan is Imran Khan, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Pakistan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.010917", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.989083, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Pakistan", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Imran Khan", - "month_risk": "0.0019051", - "annual_risk": "0.010917", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.08", - "regime_years": "13", - "leader_years": "2.583333", - "country_code": "PAK", - "country_abb": "PAK" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the gender be of the candiate that wins the 2024 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176193", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Male", - "probability": 0.702576112412178, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Female", - "probability": 0.297423887587822, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "volume": 8335.03 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Male, Female" - }, - { - "title": "The End of NAFTA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\nWe hence ask: \nwill the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? \nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:34.560Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 259, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8128/smoke-plumes-reach-stratosphere/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One factor affecting the likelihood and severity of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) is the proportion of the smoke produced due to fires started by nuclear detonations that would reach the stratosphere. This is related to the question of how frequently fires in general produce smoke that reaches the stratosphere. [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777) write: \nFirestorms were also observed in World War II and lofted material to high altitudes (see Penner et al., 1986). Moreover, numerous conflagrations in forest fires with fuel densities similar to those assumed by Reisner et al. have produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere (e.g., Peterson et al., 2018). In 2017 a fire in British Columbia produced a stratospheric smoke pall that was observed by satellites for 8 months (Yu et al., 2019). Aircraft studies have shown that debris from recent fires is common in the lower stratosphere (Ditas et al., 2018).\nWill at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31-3-2023, at least two credible sources report that, between the opening of this question and 31-12-2022, at least one fire produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere. \nThese fires can have natural or anthropogenic causes.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:39:55.675Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 81, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an accidental or unauthorised detonation, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon seized from a state actor. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:15:30.695Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 94, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:07:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:07:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7667/Who-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Michigan.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "James Craig", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kevin Rinke", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tudor Dixon", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Garrett Soldano", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Cox", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John James", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lisa McClain", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jack O'Malley", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ryan Kelley", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donna Brandenburg", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Brown", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ralph Rebrandt", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:28.423Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 6978 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "James Craig, Kevin Rinke, Tudor Dixon, Garrett Soldano, Mike Cox, John James, Lisa McClain, Jack O'Malley, Ryan Kelley, Donna Brandenburg, Michael Brown, Ralph Rebrandt" - }, - { - "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Tim Ryan", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A87", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on January 2, 2023.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on January 1, 2023, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:40:17.981Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 465, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-02T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T03:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Gain of Function research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research) (GoF) is a form of experimentation where medical researchers modify viruses and study ways in which they might become more transmissible or deadly. In [October 2014](https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a), The US implemented a ban on funding Gof research, which was later [lifted in December 2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7).\nVox Journalist Kelsey Piper in May 2020 [investigated several incidents](https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-making-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop) of mishandling virus samples and laboratory safety violations. In reviewing the arguments for and against GoF research, Piper found the risks of such research leading to a deadly outbreak to be significant.\nIn a related Metaculus question [\"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/), The median prediction on December 24, 2021 is at 40%.\nWill the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the US government announces a ban on federally funding gain-of-function research, effective anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023. This ban may persist for any length of time, so long as it effectively begins during this period. Official government statements or Credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n", + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. They're known for refusing to remove contentious content, as a [recent TechCrunch article](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/substack-doubles-down-on-uncensored-free-speech-with-acquisition-of-letter/) explains,\nAs Substack grew, writers left jobs at BuzzFeed and the New York Times, lured by pay raises and cautious optimism. But as more writers came forward as part of the Substack Pro program, Substack was criticized for subsidizing anti-trans rhetoric, since some of these writers used their newsletters to share such views. Substack admits it’s not entirely apolitical, but the choices of which writers to subsidize, and its decision to use only lightweight moderation tactics, are a political choice in an era of the internet when content moderation has a tangible effect on global politics. Some writers even chose to leave the platform, as a result.\nWill Substack cancel anyone before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Substack cancels an account, or suspends or deletes any post, of a Substack author with at least 100 subscribers, free or paid, for a reason which is not in their Terms of Use at the time the question opens (an archive of which can be found [here](https://archive.is/Jabkj)).\nNegative resolution will be determined if, according to admin discretion, no one in the Metaculus community was able to find a credible example of Substack cancelling anyone in the way previously described.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -34858,433 +48005,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:23:26.335Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:47.512Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 150, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:48:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What percentage of the registered vote will the named candidate receive in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187257276", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "If the named candidate is not on the ballot then this market will be void. This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and customers are solely responsible for their positions. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "14.99 percent or lower", - "probability": 0.25128380641202896, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "15.00-19.99 percent", - "probability": 0.5025676128240579, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "20.00-24.99 percent", - "probability": 0.1783304432601496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "25.00-29.99 percent", - "probability": 0.06142493045627375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "30.00-34.99 percent", - "probability": 0.00526499403910918, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "35.00-39.99 percent", - "probability": 0.0011282130083805385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "volume": 6860.2 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "14.99 percent or lower, 15.00-19.99 percent, 20.00-24.99 percent, 25.00-29.99 percent, 30.00-34.99 percent, 35.00-39.99 percent" - }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:02:55.915Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 226, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $3.5 billion in volume in January 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-35-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $3,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $3.50b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.996975219248525245585337227148604", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.003024780751474754414662772851396012", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "138", - "liquidity": "100.00", - "tradevolume": "17829.09", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8183/cryptid-discovery-shakes-up-science-by-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Across the world, people report seeing unidentified or out-of-place animals: those unknown to science, thought to be long extinct, or with strange abilities, behaviours or physiologies. \n\"Nessie\", \"Bigfoot\" and the \"Yowie\" are iconic figures that many people want to exist. More prosaically, people report seeing [Tasmanian tigers](https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-24/tasmanian-tiger-thylacine-sighting-debunked-pademelon/13186806) (extinct since the 1930s) as well as [big cats in the Australian bush](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-13/could-the-lithgow-panther-actually-exist/9116232).\nSometimes these observations serve an ideological purpose, as with [creationists who say reports of dinosaurs and other prehistoric animals present in the current day or recent history challenge the theory of natural selection](https://theconversation.com/at-the-evangelical-creation-museum-dinosaurs-lived-alongside-humans-and-the-world-is-6-000-years-old-142145). \nOther times they are more or less obvious hoaxes, or clear examples of people fooling themselves. \nCounter examples often given by cryptozoologists are the okapi, once considered a mythical jungle horse by Europeans; the coelacanth, a \"living fossil\"; the giant squid, which might explain \"kraken\" sightings; and the platypus, a seemingly impossible egg-laying mammal. \nNotably, these discoveries are decades or centuries old, and half of them are ocean-dwelling. But while Occam's razor, ecology and evolutionary science suggest cryptozoologists are wrong about most cryptids, are they wrong about all of them? \nI have designed the question in this way because I'm interested in questions that resolve positive if any one of many improbable outcomes come true, as a way of allowing for predictions on questions that most people would say are below 1% probability.\nWill a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?\nResolves positive if any of the following are satisfied: \n---One of the following \"extinct\" species is found alive or recently dead: A living Tasmanian tiger, mammoth, passenger pigeon, Steller's sea cow, quagga, dodo or great auk is discovered. \n---Phantom cats: The existence of big cats (Panthera genus, cheetah or cougar) in Australia or Western Europe is confirmed, including evidence of mating in the wild. \n---Bigfoot, yowie or sasquatch: Great apes are discovered that are native to anywhere other than Africa or South-East Asia. This can be an existing species or an entirely new one, as long as it is not considered to have been recently (last 50 years) introduced to the area. \n---Loch Ness monster and friends: A new species of megafauna (adults routinely exceed 45 kilograms) is discovered in Loch Ness, the Okanagan Valley, Lake Manitoba, Lake Ikeda or Lake Kussharo. \n---Mokele-mbembe: A new species of gigantic reptile (adults routinely exceeding 1 tonne) or rhinocerous is discovered in the Congo River Basin. \n---Chupacabra: A new species of vertebrate is discovered in Puerto Rico that is observed killing livestock by drinking their blood. \n---Mongolian death worm: A new species of large invertebrate (adults routinely exceed one foot in length) is discovered in the Gobi Desert. \n---Pterodactyls: A new species is discovered that descends from the Pterosauria clade. \nIn all cases, the test is whether the scientific consensus changes in the face of convincing evidence - for example, DNA or a physical specimen recovered. It is not enough that a minority of scientists in the relevant field are convinced.\nIn the absence of convincing DNA evidence or a physical specimen, scientific consensus will be considered established if more papers arguing for the discovery appear in journals of [SENSE top-ranked publishers (A rating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rankings_of_academic_publishers#SENSE_rankings) than against over a two-year period, with at least 10 papers appearing total.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:42:50.303Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9188/fourth-vaccine-doses-in-the-uk/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In September 2021, [the UK's health service started its \"booster\" campaign](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra-statement-on-booster-doses-of-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines), offering third jabs of the Covid vaccine to all adults in the UK. \nBut will Covid vaccine boosters become annual events, like flu jabs? [Other forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8728/additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-fda/) have asked that question of the US: this asks it about the UK.\nWill the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if the MHRA authorises a fourth dose for the entire UK adult population before 1 January 2023.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:32:36.523Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-28T14:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 1 month of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 million fatalities were caused by that conflict. \nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nIf the nuclear conflict clearly causes more than 1 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on anything, this question will also resolve positively. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, because forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:00.171Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:23:01.274Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 304, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:50.440Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 371160 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:18:15.239Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by April 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-april-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to April 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6760724985914745222098112574100218", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3239275014085254777901887425899782", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "26", - "liquidity": "1000.00", - "tradevolume": "6276.78", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:57:55.119Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 229, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9121/tether-to-collapse-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_%28cryptocurrency%29) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2022?\nThe question will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on [FTX](https://ftx.com/trade/USDT/USD). \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on FTX, Binance and Coinbase will be suspended for more than 7 days. \nThe question will also resolve positively in case all the 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2022. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2023. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:30:02.318Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 64, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-30T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Idaho.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Brad Little", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Janice McGeachin", - "probability": 0.3272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ammon Bundy", - "probability": 0.03636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Raúl Labrador", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ed Humphreys", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Cotton", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Russ Fulcher", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:06.896Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 34260 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ammon Bundy, Raúl Labrador, Ed Humphreys, Jeff Cotton, Russ Fulcher" - }, - { - "title": "Will Planet Her by Doja Cat win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-4", + "title": "Will FINNEAS win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-4", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Planet Her (Deluxe) by Doja Cat has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "description": "If FINNEAS has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -35297,1045 +48035,257 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 0, "yes_ask": 1, "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 12612 + "shares_volume": 23928 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", + "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n", + "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_%28columnist%29) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:19:00.204Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 312, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.941747572815534, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Marcus Söder (CSU), Armin Laschet (CDU), Another member of CDU/CSU, A member of SPD, A member of the Green party, Someone else" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Benin in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Benin is Talon, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Benin has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0154884", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9845116, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Benin", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Talon", - "month_risk": "0.0009287", - "annual_risk": "0.0154884", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "4.916667", - "country_code": "BEN", - "country_abb": "BEN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mike DeWine", - "probability": 0.6306306306306305, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.2612612612612612, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Blystone", - "probability": 0.05405405405405405, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adam Rodgers", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dave Yost", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:27.918Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 94107 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike DeWine, Jim Renacci, Joe Blystone, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Adam Rodgers, Warren Davidson, Dave Yost" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by June 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-june-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, June 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2970474399606699631176908053603589", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7029525600393300368823091946396411", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "61", - "liquidity": "9893.06", - "tradevolume": "10112.98", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many federal judges will be confirmed by Feb. 18?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7674/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Feb-18", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2022.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –\nUnited States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Trade, and the Supreme Court of the United States.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/18/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/21/2022 11:13 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: Neither the Superior Court of the District of Columbia nor the District of Columbia Court of Appeals are considered part of the federal judiciary as defined in the Rules, and judges confirmed to these courts will not be counted for purposes of resolving this market.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "46 or fewer", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "47 or 48", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "49 or 50", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "51 or 52", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "53 or 54", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "55 or 56", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "57 or 58", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "59 or 60", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "61 or 62", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "63 or more", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:36.103Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 77020 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350). \nWill there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations before 2050. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:12:06.139Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T21:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Kazakhstan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Kazakhstan is Tokayev, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Kazakhstan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0044534", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9955466, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Kazakhstan", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Tokayev", - "month_risk": "0.0002874", - "annual_risk": "0.0044534", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "2", - "country_code": "KAZ", - "country_abb": "KZK" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:31:51.707Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Arlo Parks win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-8", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Arlo Parks has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 13218 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:53.559Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 269, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Libya in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Libya is Fayez al-Sarraj, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Libya has a warlordism regime type which has lasted for 10 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0216252", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9783748, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Libya", - "regime_type": "Warlordism", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Fayez al-Sarraj", - "month_risk": "0.0005241", - "annual_risk": "0.0216252", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "10", - "leader_years": "5", - "country_code": "LBY", - "country_abb": "LIB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_%28trader%29) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:28:15.545Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 96, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the performance of the top supercomputer in 2022 and when the first exaFLOP supercomputer will appear.Context. According to the Top500 list, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half exascale. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to delays acquiring 7nm chips is now expected by some to debut in 2022.China is also developing three exascale supercomputers expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022. In April 2021, the United States imposed export controls on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. Resolution details. This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 Top500 list, which \"shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us.\" The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See here for more information about its methodology.***This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:31.911Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 423, - "numforecasters": 134, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Madagascar in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Madagascar is Rajoelina, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Madagascar has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0210866", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9789134, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Madagascar", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Rajoelina", - "month_risk": "0.0009055", - "annual_risk": "0.0210866", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.23", - "regime_years": "7", - "leader_years": "2.166667", - "country_code": "MDG", - "country_abb": "MAG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat([https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1…](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/)). China could be one of its successors.\nAs [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/blog/china-is-making-moves-on-cultivated-meat/) states:\n\"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein.\"\nPeople in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if China approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:14:36.452Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Rwanda in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Rwanda is Paul Kagame, who has been in power for 26.7 years. Rwanda has a party-military regime type which has lasted for 27 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0207527", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9792473, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Rwanda", - "regime_type": "Party-Military", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Paul Kagame", - "month_risk": "0.0007518", - "annual_risk": "0.0207527", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "27", - "leader_years": "26.66667", - "country_code": "RWA", - "country_abb": "RWA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 2028", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A152", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-14T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve positively if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) party recieves the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29) in the [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:43:16.446Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 442, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9214/kassym-jomart-tokayev-exits-presidency-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On January 2nd, 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan led to [local protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_protests), which quickly led to nationwide demonstrations including in the nation’s capital. The demands of the protesters are the decrease in fuel prices, but now include the resignation of both the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and the cabinet and also the removal of criminal immunity of the former president Nursultan Nazabayev. A state of emergency has been declared, and the Mamin Cabinet, the current government of the country, resigned on January 5th. \nLater on January 5th, Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as the Chairman of the Security Council. [Tokayev succeeded him](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/).\nThere have been reports of [dozens of police and civilian deaths](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/protesters-police-die-amid-kazakhstan-unrest), alongside widespread arson and looting. 3,000 Russian paratroopers have [arrived in Kazakhstan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/shots-heard-in-kazakhstan-as-protests-enter-third-day).\nWill Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for a period of 1 week or more, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not hold the office the President of Kazahkstan (due to his resignation, a forceful coup, or through any means). This period must occur entirely in the year 2022 to resolve this question positively.\nIn the case of ambiguity (such as if more than one person claims to be the president), this question will consider Tokayev to remain the president if he has control of over 50% of Kazakh police forces or military forces.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:33:07.792Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 77, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-21T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Optimism have a token by May 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-optimism-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Optimism will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If Optimism have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4054527376201705232031785858032086", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5945472623798294767968214141967914", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "40", - "liquidity": "1300.00", - "tradevolume": "3760.80", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the IL-06 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7675/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-IL-06-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Illinois' Sixth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sean Casten", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marie Newman", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:40.750Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 2241 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sean Casten, Marie Newman" - }, - { - "title": "Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The laws surrounding cryptocurrencies are likely to have many parts and be complicated. This question is targeted toward the legality of simple possession of Bitcoin specifically.\nWill any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?\nWill anyone in the United States be convicted, in any U.S. court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1st 2060?\n--- \nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin. If they bought drugs on the darkweb using Bitcoin and were just charged for buying drugs, that would be irrelevant to this question.\n--- \nSimilarly, if someone doesn't report their Bitcoin capital gains to the IRS and then is convicted for income tax evasion, that does not count.\n--- \nThis question only resolves positively if the coins themselves are made illegal. For example, convictions for owning stolen Bitcoin or Bitcoin used in criminal transactions do not count towards positive resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:05:52.855Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 100, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2056-07-19T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:30.998Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 87, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 nomination for Dallas County district attorney?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7690/Who-will-win-the-2022-nomination-for-Dallas-County-district-attorney", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for District Attorney of Dallas County, Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "John Creuzot", + "probability": 0.7777777777777777, + "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Democratic", + "name": "Elizabeth Frizzell", + "probability": 0.2222222222222222, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:56.048Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 659 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "John Creuzot, Elizabeth Frizzell" + }, + { + "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:20.503Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 68463 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:13:29.323Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:48.416Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Qatar in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Qatar is Khalifah Al Thani, who has been in power for 7.8 years. Qatar has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", + "title": "Will Leave the Door Open by Silk Sonic win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-7", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Leave the Door Open by Silk Sonic has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0032802", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9967198, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Qatar", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Khalifah Al Thani", - "month_risk": "0.0001333", - "annual_risk": "0.0032802", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "50", - "leader_years": "7.75", - "country_code": "QAT", - "country_abb": "QAT" + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 29032 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.29523809523809524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.21904761904761905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.19999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:17.779Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 189705 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Muhammadu Buhari, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Cyril Ramaphosa, Félix Tshisekedi, Paul Kagame, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Nana Akufo-Addo" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Democratic Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritius in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Democratic Republic of the Congo is Felix Tschisekedi, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Democratic Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years", + "description": "The current leader of Mauritius is Pravind Jugnauth, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Mauritius has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 53 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.016232", + "probability": "0.0085873", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.983768, + "probability": 0.9914127, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Democratic Republic of the Congo", - "regime_type": "Personal", + "country_name": "Mauritius", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Felix Tschisekedi", - "month_risk": "0.0006285", - "annual_risk": "0.016232", + "leader_name": "Pravind Jugnauth", + "month_risk": "0.0005257", + "annual_risk": "0.0085873", "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "24", - "leader_years": "2.166667", - "country_code": "COD", - "country_abb": "DRC" + "regime_years": "53", + "leader_years": "4.166667", + "country_code": "MUS", + "country_abb": "MAS" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "title": "Will any state leave NATO by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):\n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill any state leave NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is a part of NATO at the start of this tournament has left NATO by 2023-12-31. This requires that the state has actually left NATO by that date, rather than merely announcing its intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving. \nThis will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the state no longer being included on the member list on NATO's official website.\nIf a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would not count toward a positive resolution.\nFor simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:50.652Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:09.219Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 795, + "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Uganda in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Uganda is Museveni, who has been in power for 35.2 years. Uganda has a personal regime type which has lasted for 35 years", + "title": "When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2107-when-will-the-scottish-government-officially-request-discussions-on-or-agreement-to-a-section-30-order-from-the-uk-government-that-would-enable-the-scottish-government-to-call-a-new-independence-referendum", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-tells-boris-johnson-new-vote-is-when-not-if-12302257), [House of Commons Library](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/whats-the-process-for-a-second-independence-referendum-in-scotland/), [Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8738/CBP-8738.pdf)). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., [2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May](https://firstminister.gov.scot/first-minister-letter-delivered-to-prime-minister/)) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., [Scottish Parliament's \"Scotland's Choice\" Motion](https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/votes-and-motions/votes-and-motions-search/S5M-04710)) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Before 1 January 2022", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022", + "probability": 0.29, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Not before 1 January 2023", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:36.346Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 322, + "numforecasters": 135, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, Not before 1 January 2023" + }, + { + "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0195445", + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9804555, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:08.053Z", "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 94, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Uganda", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Museveni", - "month_risk": "0.0022028", - "annual_risk": "0.0195445", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.33", - "regime_years": "35", - "leader_years": "35.16667", - "country_code": "UGA", - "country_abb": "UGA" - }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { @@ -36355,7 +48305,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:51:07.425Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:33.532Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -36369,8017 +48319,35 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/autonomous-cars-precede-ar-users-in-cars/", + "title": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8998/1-us-state-legalizes-a-psychedelic-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n", + "description": "Oregon become the [first state to decriminalize psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) in November 2020 via a ballot measure. Psilocybin (also known as \"mushrooms\") is also decriminalized in a few cities in the US, but remains a [Schedule I drug federally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances).\nA bill to legalize psilocybin, LSD, and other psychedelics has been [reviewed by the California Senate in August 2021](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB519). Oregon has decriminalized posession of [small doses of LSD](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/oregon-drug-decriminalization-1121763/).\n[MDMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#Legal_status), [mescaline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mescaline#United_States), and [DMT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N,N-Dimethyltryptamine#By_country_and_continent) are Schedule I drugs and are illegal for all purposes federally.\nScott Wiener, California state representative who authored SB-519 to decriminalize psychedelics, [said in February 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-california-bill-would-decriminalize-psychedelics-expunge-criminal-records-n1258261), \"The war on drugs has been a complete failure, It hasn't stopped people from using drugs and it hasn’t stopped addiction.\" Other proponents of decriminalization argue psychedelics have [legitimate uses for medical or psychotheraputic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_therapy).\nWill any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if any state decriminalizes or legalizes any of the following:\n---psilocybin \n---LSD \n---MDMA \n---mescaline \n---DMT \nbetween December 21, 2021 to January 1, 2023 (excluding Oregon's current decriminalization of psilocybin and LSD). This question may also resolve positive if any of the above drugs is reclassified as a [Schedule III, IV, V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_III_controlled_substances) or unrestricted substance federally. Decriminalization or Legalization may be restricted to medical or recreational use, and may be restricted to within a maximum amount/dose.\nThe law may decriminalize/legalize some activities, but not others; that is, the question may resolve positively if any of posession, sale, transport, or production/cultivation are decriminalized, while others remain criminal. [\"Deprioritization\"](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/third-massachusetts-city-approves-psychedelics-decriminalization-measure/), where the substance remains criminalized but is deprioritized for enforcement and prosecution, will not qualify to resolve this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:41.676Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-07-15T15:16:32Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But the condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Two detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if there is the gap between them is 30 days or less.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nWill the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?\nThe question resolves positively if by 2100-01-01 that condition is met and at least 3 credible sources state or estimate that more than 100 million fatalities were caused by the nuclear conflict within 1 month of the final detonation that is part of that conflict. If a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 100 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:15.840Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by April 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-april-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6969015357016223063101643849696116", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3030984642983776936898356150303884", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "151", - "liquidity": "7025.33", - "tradevolume": "10004.04", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8537/china-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that China has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the President of the People's Republic of China; the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; head of one of the Chinese military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Chinese diplomacy official such as the Chinese Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:33.552Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:21:14.862Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 692, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol. \nWill Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?\nIf there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:03:53.863Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:21:04.286Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7659/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Illinois-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:09.240Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 12386 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china#daily-confirmed-deaths-how-do-they-compare-to-other-countries).\nThis figure has been widely questioned, e.g. by [Forbes](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/amp/) and [ABC news](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100587910), with suggestions ranging from true numbers in the low 10,000s to over 1,000,000.\nThis question asks if OWID will report a cumulative deaths figure of greater than 50,000 for China by the end of 2022.\nWill cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?\nIf Our World In Data report a cumulative total of over 50,000 deaths in China by the end of 2022, this should resolve positively, otherwise it should resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:32:57.349Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8334/us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis.\nWill spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion [according to the US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2021&categories=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=).\nThis question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:50.744Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-22T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:54:07.583Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 73, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:54:30.428Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:19:11.238Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 221, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Nifty Gateway airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nifty-gateway-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Nifty Gateway will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2805194420431953370698586090209223", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7194805579568046629301413909790777", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "31", - "liquidity": "600.00", - "tradevolume": "1630.57", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:37:10.575Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 322, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Brunei in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Brunei is Hassanal Bolkiah, who has been in power for 53.4 years. Brunei has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 53 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0038686", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9961314, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Brunei", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hassanal Bolkiah", - "month_risk": "0.000211", - "annual_risk": "0.0038686", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.12", - "regime_years": "53", - "leader_years": "53.41667", - "country_code": "BRN", - "country_abb": "BRU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's May meeting?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-006", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's May meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their May 04, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 96, - "yes_ask": 98, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 14442 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8725/future-covid-summer-peak-exceeds-winter-peak/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.\nVDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.\nWill the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?\nThis will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) or COVID-like illness [(“Weekly CLI visits (counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.\nThis applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:10:10.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-3", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 75958 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.31967213114754095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.1967213114754098, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.15573770491803277, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Gibbons", - "probability": 0.15573770491803277, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernie Moreno", - "probability": 0.05737704918032786, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Dolan", - "probability": 0.016393442622950817, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill Johnson", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Pukita", - "probability": 0.008196721311475409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:00.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1190250 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, Mike Gibbons, Bernie Moreno, Matt Dolan, Rob Portman, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Steve Stivers, Brad Wenstrup, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson, Mark Pukita" - }, - { - "title": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2132-will-emirates-airline-revenues-for-fy-2021-22-reach-at-least-75-of-fy-2019-20-revenues-or-aed-68-979-million", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion ([Emirates](https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results/), [Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf)). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 ([Emirates Group](https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/)). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million ([Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf), see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:03.324Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 158, - "numforecasters": 48, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5544554455445545, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.44554455445544555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:51.345Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 101394 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9585/l-kruger-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Leondra Reid Kruger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leondra_Kruger), born July 28, 1976, is an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California and a former Obama administration official.\nIt has been [speculated](https://twitter.com/JeffreyToobin/status/1483197268828295170) that President Joe Biden could nominate Kruger to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur.\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Leondra Kruger is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:46:56.881Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7876/us-boycott-of-2022-beijing-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/) \nTalk of a \"new Cold War\" and heightened \"Great Power Competition\" between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC), has recently stoked debate about whether the United States should boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. (See this [Council on Foreign Relations brief](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/debate-over-boycotting-2022-beijing-olympics) on the boycott debate)\nGovernments and human rights activists have pointed to the [PRC's human rights abuses](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/08/05/higher-faster-harsher-olympics-head-beijing) as a particular reason why Western governments should decide not to let China profit off its athletes, and US allies -- [particularly Canada](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/canada-athletes-may-not-be-safe-at-2022-beijing-winter-olympics-opposition-leader-says) -- have suggested that their athletes themselves may not be safe in China.\nThere is precedent for Olympic boycotts, including during the Cold War, but [little evidence](https://warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-five-ring-circus-in-china-the-proposed-boycott-of-the-2022-winter-olympics/) that such boycotts work in the sense of getting states to change their policies.\nUS government spokespeople have said [as recently as April 2021](https://deadline.com/2021/04/olympics-china-joe-biden-boycott-1234728898/) that they were not discussing a boycott with allies and partners.\nWill the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?\nThe question will resolve if the US Olympic team is not represented at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. If the US and partners decide to hold an alternative to the games outside China, it will be considered a \"boycott.\" If individual athletes on the US team boycott the games, but the US team is officially participating, it will not be considered a \"US boycott.\"\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before an official spokesperson for the US team or State Department announces that the US team will boycott.\nIf the Olympics are postponed, any winter olympics event happening between 2022-2025 (inclusive) in China will be considered \"The 2022 Beijing Olympics\". \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:30:06.259Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 98, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-04T19:58:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T19:58:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Zapper airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zapper-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Zapper will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2901713486575985857055839425629477", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7098286513424014142944160574370523", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "68", - "liquidity": "500.00", - "tradevolume": "3500.81", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Ron Desantis", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A181", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of Canadians will report having ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video, according to the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2193-what-percentage-of-canadians-will-report-having-ever-visited-their-health-care-provider-virtually-online-by-video-according-to-the-2022-canadian-digital-health-survey", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Canada Health Infoway conducts the annual Canadian Digital Health Survey to track various metrics and solicit feedback from Canadians ([Infoway - Digital Health Survey](https://insights.infoway-inforoute.ca/digital-health-survey)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the results of the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey, expected to be made in the summer of 2022 and released later, as displayed on the infographics. In 2021, the percentage of survey respondents (Canadians over the age of 16) who reported that they had ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video was 17% ([Infoway - Virtual Visits](https://insights.infoway-inforoute.ca/virtual_visits/), see \"Use of Virtual Visits (VIDEO)\").\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 17%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 17% and 20%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 20% but less than 25%", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "25% or more", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:16.112Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 96, - "numforecasters": 40, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 17%, Between 17% and 20%, inclusive, More than 20% but less than 25%, 25% or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:55:39.555Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 72, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:35.998Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 251, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Olivia Rodrigo win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-9", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Olivia Rodrigo has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 2, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 131106 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bored Apes", - "probability": "0.7868061591783387848773497795071563", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "CryptoPunks", - "probability": "0.2131938408216612151226502204928437", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "72", - "liquidity": "8484.59", - "tradevolume": "11425.22", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"A number of catastrophic events could cause a roughly 10% global agricultural shortfall, including a medium-sized asteroid/comet impact (Napier 2008), a large but not super volcanic eruption, full-scale nuclear war if the impacts are less than anticipated (Turco et al. 1990), regional nuclear war (for example, India-Pakistan (Ozdogan et al. 2013)), abrupt regional climate change (Valdes 2011), complete global loss of bees as pollinators (Aizen et al. 2009), a super crop pest or pathogen, and coincident extreme weather, resulting in multiple breadbasket failures (Bailey et al. 2015).\"\nBut there's uncertainty about how likely each of those events is, how likely a 10% global agricultural shortfall is given each event, and how likely it is that such a shortfall will occur for some other reason.\nWill there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?\nThe question will be resolved positively if the yearly total global agricultural crop yield for the calendar year 2022 or 2023 (as reported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) is at least 10% lower than agricultural production in the previous calendar year (2021 or 2022, respectively) was. \nThe reason for the shortfall does not matter (e.g., it does not have to be related to nuclear conflict).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:49.120Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Iraq in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Iraq is Al-Kadhimi, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Iraq has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 9 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0041431", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9958569, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Iraq", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Al-Kadhimi", - "month_risk": "0.0003187", - "annual_risk": "0.0041431", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "9", - "leader_years": "0.8333333", - "country_code": "IRQ", - "country_abb": "IRQ" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2251-at-close-of-business-on-30-december-2022-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [US News & World Report](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-29/apple-set-to-hand-crown-of-worlds-most-valuable-company-to-microsoft)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET ([Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:28.436Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 69, - "numforecasters": 58, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:35:09.510Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 486, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8831/liz-truss-to-become-tory-leader-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.\nAs of December 2021, Truss enjoys a [very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party.](https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html)\nWill Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count). The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:13:59.847Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n“The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.\nWill soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nThe relevant process must eliminate sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to any of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:00:16.887Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:39:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:31:22.835Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 220, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).\nWill SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?\nIf Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers to its database at any point in 2023, this question will resolve positively.\nIf another organisation widely reported to have involvement from Alexandra Elbakyan providing a similar service (as judged by Metaculus mods) to Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers, this should still resolve positively. \nOtherwise it should resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:42.139Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 76, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8360/israel-mandates-salt-iodization-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Unlike most other industrialized nations, Israel has never iodized its salt on a National level, and has a [widespread](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251) [iodine](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32357947/) [deficiency](https://ijhpr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13584-020-00382-5). Israel's [Health Ministry](https://health.gov.il/English/Topics/FoodAndNutrition/Nutrition/Adequate_nutrition/Pages/iodine.aspx) has a page on the iodine issue, and the iodine issue in Israel [has](https://www.jpost.com/Business-and-Innovation/Health-and-Science/Health-Ministry-lags-behind-Iran-and-PA-in-iodine-fortification-of-salt-497207) [received](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170327083438.htm) [substantial](https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/study-israelis-have-among-world-s-worst-iodine-deficiency-1.5453908) [media](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) [attention](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/health-and-science/iodine-free-salt-create-national-health-problem-485381).\nIodine is [well](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15292317/) [known](https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/how-adding-iodine-to-salt-boosted-americans-iq) [to increase IQ](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6145226/). It is known that iodine deprivation for children and pregnant mothers, the groups tested in Israel, hurts national IQ; the data on adults is [less clear.](https://www.gwern.net/Iodine) It has been [suggested](https://twitter.com/Go321D/status/988159032467701760) that iodine deficiency is hurting the cognitive performance of Israel pupils. \nThe iodine issue was first identified [in 2017](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251). Recently, the Health Ministry [has considered](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) iodizing salt.\nAround 120 countries have some form of mandating salt iodization ([Dasgupta, et al. 2008](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509517/)), although the US, for example, does not.\nWill Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel passes any policy requiring the majority of food-grade salt to be fortified with iodine before 2030-01-01, according to credible media reports or official government announcements.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:33.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.41379310344827586, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.5862068965517241, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "in Q1, 2021, in Q2, 2021, in Q3, 2021, in Q4, 2021, Perhaps later" - }, - { - "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:33.646Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.9514563106796116, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Gallagher", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Walker", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kevin Nicholson", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Steil", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:05.771Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 128355 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 New Hampshire Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Chuck Morse", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Bolduc", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Frank Edelblut", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kelly Ayotte", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Sununu", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill Binnie", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Brown", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Mowers", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Corky Messner", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Phil Taub", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Frank Guinta", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:17.059Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 72250 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Morse, Donald Bolduc, Frank Edelblut, Kelly Ayotte, Chris Sununu, Bill Binnie, Scott Brown, Matt Mowers, Corky Messner, Phil Taub, Frank Guinta" - }, - { - "title": "Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104-will-sir-keir-starmer-face-a-formal-challenge-for-the-leadership-of-the-labour-party-before-4-april-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-wins-contest-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-11968442), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-be-reinstated-as-labour-mp-under-leftwing-challenge-to-starmer), [Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377)). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs ([Institute for Government](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests), [Labour Party Rule Book 2020](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Rule-Book-2020.pdf), see Chapter 4, Clause II).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:33.414Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 291, - "numforecasters": 140, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nWill Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the [2022 Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:30.795Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 948, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:20:41.034Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 256, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8609/10-agricul-drop-leading-to-400m-fatalities/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\nArmed conflict could be in some countries’ best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"\nIf there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?\nThis question conditions on there being a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, using the same specification as in [a previous question](LINK) (except that here the year 2030 is used instead of 2024[1]). That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. As noted in that previous question, this could be caused either by nuclear conflict or by something else.\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nThe above condition is met\n2-- \nAt least three credible sources state or estimate that, within 5 years of the end of the year in which the first 10% shortfall by 2030 occurs, more than 400 million fatalities were caused by that shortfall. \nFor example, if the shortfall occurs in 2027, this question is about whether that causes >400m fatalities by the end of 2032.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate. \nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations cause >4b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the 10% shortfall. For example, if the 10% shortfall is followed by armed conflict, no attempt will be made to second-guess what credible sources say about whether the fatalities caused by that armed conflict should be considered to be ultimately caused by the 10% shortfall.\n[1] The reason for using 2030 rather than 2024 for this question is that the fatalities and discussion of them may occur on a several-year delay from the actual shortfall. It therefore seemed unwise to force this question to resolve by 2024, and hence best to make this part of the long-term rather than calibration tournament. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:05.951Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Why was Seth Rich killed?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, [DNC staffer Seth Rich](http://www.popville.com/2016/07/early-morning-shooting-in-bloomingdale/) was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.\nWhile the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. [When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder](http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2124316-assange-belooft-nieuwe-onthullingen-over-clinton.html) these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were [interpreted](http://forward.com/news/national/347668/newt-gingrich-just-fanned-the-flames-of-seth-rich-conspiracy-theories/) by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong.", - "probability": 0.8899299168589954, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee.", - "probability": 0.09615579336720934, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee.", - "probability": 0.01391428977379551, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.641Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee." - }, - { - "title": "Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-vaccine-specifically-targeting-the-omicron-variant-be-available-for-access-by-the-us-population-before-april-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "If a vaccine engineered to specifically provide protection against the Omicron variant of COVID-19, whether or not it additionally protects against other variants of SARS-CoV-2, is released for public use in the US, regardless of whether its use is restricted to particular population segments, before April 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe source used to resolve this market will be official information released by the FDA (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) and/or other official information from the government of the United States of America.\n\nNote, this market is only for a vaccine’s availability in the United States, and does not cover any vaccine’s availability in any other country.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1477953069189596073322716278146964", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8522046930810403926677283721853036", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "41", - "liquidity": "3884.58", - "tradevolume": "6885.06", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:47.923Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 237, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:41:33.810Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 225, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:18:12.403Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 584, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2146-before-1-january-2023-will-a-ride-hailing-service-open-to-the-public-which-uses-autonomous-vehicles-be-launched-and-or-tested-on-public-roads-in-dubai", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, though testing may start sooner ([Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-to-become-first-city-outside-us-to-operate-driverless-vehicles), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/gm-backed-cruise-to-expand-self-driving-operations-to-dubai-in-2023.html), [Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-eyes-the-future-with-self-driving-cabs)). Testing must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:45.835Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 93, - "numforecasters": 55, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:55.562Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 208032 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API.\nIf a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?\nTo resolve positively:\n--- \nThe model paper should be published on arXiv or on the ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML (top machine learning conferences) websites before the end of 2022.\n--- \nIt should at least be an API or graphical user interface with a language model option where you could send a text prompt and it returns text. If for instance there is a new Deep Learning model that uses 5x more compute than GPT-3 but does not provide any way to produce text from text, that does not count.\n--- \nYou should be able to get one API call/send one prompt by paying less than $1k from a publicly accessible source on the clear web that you can find using one google search. This rule is to force the accessibility to end-user.\n------ \nThe $1k limit insists on it being business-to-consumer and not business-to-business.\n------ \nThe public url from one google search dismisses any leak of the model where you would need to do extra steps yourself or have private information of a token/password protected url (cf. [DeepNude](https://www.theregister.com/2019/06/27/deepfake_nudes_app_pulled/) where you needed to do some hacking to get access to the model after the author removed it publicly)\nIf a model meets the first two resolution criteria by 2022, but the third criterion (about public access) is not met, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:57:58.625Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-05-30T20:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-06T21:27:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump is elected POTUS in 2024", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A72", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:45:45.136Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 247, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:57:17.397Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \nWill the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?\nThis question resolves positively if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict involving the state whose weapon is detonated and the state against which the weapon is detonated. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs by 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:12:21.572Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T22:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:54:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [next Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Philippine_presidential_election) in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President [Rodrigo Duterte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte) is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution.\nOpinion polling on December 11, 2021 found [Bongbong Marcos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bongbong_Marcos) with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate [Leni Robredo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Robredo) (current Vice President) with 16.2%.\nAs of December 22, 2021, [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022) gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/2022-philippine-presidential-election) gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win.\nWill Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports.\nIf Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:22:29.015Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 57, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-05-08T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:08:03.937Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 173, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:41:11.397Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 236, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the price of Terra ($LUNA) be on March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-terra-luna-be-on-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Terra ($LUNA) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $25.00, and the upper bound is $125.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Long", - "probability": "0.2555422809280754983266419924841012", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Short", - "probability": "0.7444577190719245016733580075158988", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.334Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "165", - "liquidity": "5300.00", - "tradevolume": "6906.65", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nWill the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:36:48.661Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 502, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which candidate will receive the most votes in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193139730", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on election day. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoeve receives the most votes in the first round of voting. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the voting for the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.018Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "volume": 4012.2 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Kenya in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Kenya is Kenyatta, who has been in power for 7.9 years. Kenya has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 18 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0133223", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9866777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Kenya", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Kenyatta", - "month_risk": "0.00073", - "annual_risk": "0.0133223", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "18", - "leader_years": "7.916667", - "country_code": "KEN", - "country_abb": "KEN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected to be the next Prime Minister of Hungary as a result of the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193037137", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Additional runners may be added upon request. This market will be settled upon whomever is formally elected by the National Assembly to the position of Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market once an official announcement is made. However, once Betfair becomes aware of an official announcement, the market will be suspended. This market will be void if an election does not take place before the end of 2022. If more than one election takes place in this time period, then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of Prime Minister of Hungary on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Viktor Orban", - "probability": 0.7592592592592593, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Peter Marki-Zay", - "probability": 0.24074074074074078, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.018Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "volume": 3367.2 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Viktor Orban, Peter Marki-Zay" - }, - { - "title": "Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2019) Federal Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159045690", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned IN PLAY with unmatched bets cancelled at the conclusion of polling on Election Day. Thereafter unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time by Betfair and the market will not be actively managed. In the event that a government can’t be officially sworn in by the Governor General all bets on this market will be void. Coalition refers to the Liberal Party and the National Party. This is a cross-matching market. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed and that all in-play matches are not necessarily televised.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • BET IN-PLAY Australian customers call Telbet to bet in-play on this market – call 132BET (132238)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Coalition", - "probability": 0.2805406783983678, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Labor", - "probability": 0.7013516959959195, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Any Other Party", - "probability": 0.01810762560571283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 341897.32 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Coalition, Labor, Any Other Party" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7688/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Wisconsin.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Rebecca Kleefisch", - "probability": 0.6952380952380952, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kevin Nicholson", - "probability": 0.27619047619047615, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jonathan Wichmann", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adam Fischer", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:20.806Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 2124 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rebecca Kleefisch, Kevin Nicholson, Jonathan Wichmann, Adam Fischer" - }, - { - "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Josh Mandel", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A84", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 100. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:41.671Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 500,000 on February 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-500000-on-february-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 500,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0008545491452602508980649961145855341", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9991454508547397491019350038854145", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "273", - "liquidity": "75.42", - "tradevolume": "52462.36", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.38532110091743116, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.33027522935779813, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.11009174311926605, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark McCloskey", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:20.983Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 364518 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Jason Smith, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Roy Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner" - }, - { - "title": "Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/indiaisraelpakistan-sign-npt-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill India, Israel or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2024, at least one of India, Israel or Pakistan sign the NPT, according to reputable sources. \nThis does not require that any of these states actually [accede](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to the NPT or even that it is seen as likely that they will do so.\nSee also\n---[Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:03.267Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:20:29.543Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 124, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.\nIn an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\nIf a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\n--- \nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n--- \nIt resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n--- \nThe question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:26:15.645Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 208, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-11-17T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a **recession** start by Q2 2022? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECSS-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is strictly less than zero in at least one of Q3 2021, Q4 2021, Q1 2022, and Q2 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see RECSS in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 19, - "yes_ask": 22, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 201936 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.\nWill the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?\nResolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news source\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:57:32.504Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:40.208Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 716, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on May 20, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-may-20-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, May 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6155875520987577043823790797790629", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3844124479012422956176209202209371", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "102", - "liquidity": "3291.13", - "tradevolume": "1495.00", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\nWill North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n---North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge. \nor\n---North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory. \nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:59:55.949Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 84, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nNationalization of corporations that are working on AGI might happen due to the government perceiving the risks and power imbalance associated with a private organization with AGI technology to be unacceptable. \nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a nationalized organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:13.811Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7580/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Mike Dunleavy", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill Walker", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Les Gara", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Natasha Von Imhof", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Begich", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:56.437Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 13567 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike Dunleavy, Bill Walker, Les Gara, Natasha Von Imhof, Mark Begich" - }, - { - "title": ">=51 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A171", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:06:08.699Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:54:35.711Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 90, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. \n---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. \n---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). \n---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). \n---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.\nWill the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.59, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:22:28.721Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 163, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) asks how likely extinction is within 20 years of such a population decline. This question is intended as an imperfect proxy for the chance of another type of existential catastrophe: Unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse). \n(See also [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/).)\nWill human population size recover to 5b by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400m without extinction occurring within 20 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million sometime before 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years of that population decline, and the population recovers to >5 billion people sometime by the year 3000 (whether or not it remains >5 billion in the year 3000). The question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years, and the population remains below 5 billion from then till the year 3000 (whether this involves extinction or not, and regardless of what happens after 3000). The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100 or if extinction occurs within 20 years of such a population fall.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about such extreme events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nFor simplicity, this question will not attempt to distinguish truly unrecoverable collapses from \"merely\" those in which no recover occurs until after 3000 and will not attempt to consider any dimensions of collapse or recovery other than population size. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:39:08.444Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 Punjab Legislative election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7710/Which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2022-Punjab-Legislative-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that wins the highest number of seats in the 2022 election to the Punjab Vidhan Sabha, also known as Legislative Assembly. Should two or more such parties be tied for first place, this market will resolve in favor of the party, among those tied, winning the highest share of the popular vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Aam Aadmi Party", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Congress Party", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shiromani Akali Dal", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bharatiya Janata", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:23.219Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 63862 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Aam Aadmi Party, Congress Party, Shiromani Akali Dal, Bharatiya Janata" - }, - { - "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question is cross-posted on Predictit.Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:33.133Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 312, - "numforecasters": 52, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9311/ron-johnson-wins-2022-wisconsin-us-senate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) is the senior US senator from Wisconsin. He was first elected to the senate in 2010, [defeating Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold (D) 51.9% to 47.0%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/wisconsin.html), after Feingold had served the position since 1993. In the 2016 election, Johnson surprised the pollsters and [defeated Feingold once again with 50.2% of the vote to Feingold's 46.8%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/wisconsin-senate-johnson-feingold).\nDespite the 2016 polls, based on which [fivethirtyeight (81.7%)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/), [The Upshot (66%)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html), and [RealClearPolitics (-2.7%)](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html) expected Feingold to win, Johnson won instead. \nRecently, Wisconsin has seen large polling errors towards the presidential Democratic candidate in [2016 (538: 6.1% error towards Clinton)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/) and in [2020 (538: 7.9% towards Biden)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/).\nAs of January 2022, [Cook Political has indicated Wisconsin is one of its six state \"toss-up\" 2022 senate elections](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings). \nMany consider [Johnson a staunch Trump supporter](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/01/09/republican-u-s-sen-ron-johnson-announces-run-re-election/8797338002/).\nWill Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?\nThis question shall resolve positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates Ron Johnson has won the 2022 US Senate election for Wisconsin by March 2023. The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:34:05.742Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-02T08:07:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-11T09:07:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Kyrgyzstan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Kyrgyzstan is Sadyr Japarov, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Kyrgyzstan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 0 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0159567", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9840433, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Kyrgyzstan", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Sadyr Japarov", - "month_risk": "0.0042401", - "annual_risk": "0.0159567", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.09", - "regime_years": "0", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "KGZ", - "country_abb": "KYR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in East Timor in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of East Timor is Francisco Guterres, who has been in power for 3.8 years. East Timor has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0146174", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9853826, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "East Timor", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Francisco Guterres", - "month_risk": "0.0029065", - "annual_risk": "0.0146174", - "risk_change_percent": "0.03", - "regime_years": "19", - "leader_years": "3.833333", - "country_code": "TLS", - "country_abb": "ETM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2203-what-will-be-the-annual-percentage-change-in-the-average-hourly-earnings-of-us-private-sector-employees-in-october-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/a-sharp-rise-in-wages-is-contributing-to-worries-over-inflation.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/tightest-u-s-job-market-since-1950s-set-to-drive-inflation), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wages-and-prices-are-up-but-it-isnt-a-spiralyet-11635688981)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private,\" expected on 4 November 2022 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5), adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "An increase of less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "An increase of 6.0% or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:06.977Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 173, - "numforecasters": 84, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "An increase of less than 2.0%, An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, An increase of 6.0% or more" - }, - { - "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:29.257Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 804, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:15:04.018Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 79, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.\nWill global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?\nThis question resolves positive if trade as a percentage of GWP, [as published by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), exceeds 61% between 2020 and 2025, inclusive; otherwise it resolves negative. Resolution would be ambiguous if the World Bank ceases to exist or publish this data and no alternate data source can be found.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:06:41.125Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:07:05.538Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 73, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:08.351Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 91, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.\nWill most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nFor the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand.\nThe question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.\nThe question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:50.210Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 263, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-08T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-03T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Austria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Austria is Kurz, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Austria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 65 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0012354", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9987646, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Austria", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Kurz", - "month_risk": "0.0001006", - "annual_risk": "0.0012354", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "65", - "leader_years": "1.166667", - "country_code": "AUT", - "country_abb": "AUS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:32:50.042Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Dominican Republic in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Dominican Republic is Luis Abinader, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Dominican Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 43 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0053902", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9946098, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Dominican Republic", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Luis Abinader", - "month_risk": "0.0004243", - "annual_risk": "0.0053902", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", - "regime_years": "43", - "leader_years": "0.5833333", - "country_code": "DOM", - "country_abb": "DOM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Turkey in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Turkey is Erdogan, who has been in power for 18.0 years. Turkey has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0080428", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9919572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Turkey", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Erdogan", - "month_risk": "0.0002549", - "annual_risk": "0.0080428", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "2", - "leader_years": "18", - "country_code": "TUR", - "country_abb": "TUR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Carole Delga be a minister in the French government in 2022?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Carole Delga is the socialist president of the Occitanie region, and the president of the Association of French Regions (the first woman to hold this position). She supports a potential presidential candidacy of Anne Hidalgo, the socialist mayor of Paris. In 2022, the French presidential election will be held in April, followed by legislative elections in June. If the president does not have a majority in the Assembly, the prime minister in charge of forming the government will be chosen by the Assembly. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Prime minister of President Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.028571428571428567, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "(Simple) minister of President Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Minister of President Macron", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Minister of another President", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not minister", - "probability": 0.8857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Prime minister of President Hidalgo, (Simple) minister of President Hidalgo, Minister of President Macron, Minister of another President, Not minister" - }, - { - "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:56:01.622Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 337, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Greece in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Greece is Mitsotakis, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Greece has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 47 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0026875", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9973125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Greece", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mitsotakis", - "month_risk": "0.0002205", - "annual_risk": "0.0026875", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "47", - "leader_years": "1.666667", - "country_code": "GRC", - "country_abb": "GRC" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Kamala Harris", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A185", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "Much lower than conventional wisdom", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\nWill a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2022 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n---Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive. \n---Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive. \nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. It is a shorter term companion to [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8664/patient-philanthropy-harder-in-the-us-by-30/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:06:50.642Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-28T11:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Peru in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Peru is Francisco Sagasti, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Peru has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 20 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0059416", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9940584, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Peru", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "month_risk": "0.0005809", - "annual_risk": "0.0059416", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "20", - "leader_years": "0.3333333", - "country_code": "PER", - "country_abb": "PER" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4121675127021856471346708408145262", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5878324872978143528653291591854738", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.334Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "62", - "liquidity": "3487.60", - "tradevolume": "1675.70", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic nomination for attorney general?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7592/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-nomination-for-attorney-general", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of New York. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.9074074074074073, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shelley Mayer", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Zephyr Teachout", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Maria Vullo", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Gonzalez", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Melinda Katz", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Gianaris", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Clyde Vanel", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Daniel Goldman", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laura Gillen", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:21.603Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 51619 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Shelley Mayer, Zephyr Teachout, Maria Vullo, Eric Gonzalez, Melinda Katz, Michael Gianaris, Clyde Vanel, Andrew Cuomo, Daniel Goldman, Laura Gillen" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7577/Who-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Minnesota. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Paul Gazelka", - "probability": 0.43589743589743585, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Jensen", - "probability": 0.2649572649572649, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michelle Benson", - "probability": 0.19658119658119658, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Murphy", - "probability": 0.04273504273504273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Neil Shah", - "probability": 0.025641025641025637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Karin Housley", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carla Nelson", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jennifer Carnahan", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Lindell", - "probability": 0.008547008547008546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:47.507Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 18676 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Paul Gazelka, Scott Jensen, Michelle Benson, Mike Murphy, Neil Shah, Karin Housley, Carla Nelson, Jennifer Carnahan, Mike Lindell" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $4.25 billion in volume in January 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-425-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $4,250,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $4.25b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9979121116346064362778288211669881", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.00208788836539356372217117883301194", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "224", - "liquidity": "189.26", - "tradevolume": "27886.72", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8405/us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\nAfter months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\nTo squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\nDetails of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\nThe Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually.\nWill a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be \"realized\", or sold to yield a profit.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:47.564Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 99, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_%28tennis%29) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:38:22.016Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 77, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:36:53.870Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic lieutenant governor nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7686/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-lieutenant-governor-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Michelle Beckley", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Collier", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carla Brailey", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:16.559Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 3062 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Beckley, Mike Collier, Carla Brailey" - }, - { - "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:05.287Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 190, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-15-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 15, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5521723081266200037629985032218555", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4478276918733799962370014967781445", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "214", - "liquidity": "25995.16", - "tradevolume": "72184.64", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9609/orb%25C3%25A1n-wins-2022-hungarian-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is [United for Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_for_Hungary), which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by [Péter Márki-Zay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_M%C3%A1rki-Zay), a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition.\nWill Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022.\nIn the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:47:43.758Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-09T14:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:49:35.719Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which of these 13 Cabinet members will leave first?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7520/Which-of-these-13-Cabinet-members-will-leave-first", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the Cabinet or Cabinet-level position that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nIn the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No.\nAt 11:59 p.m. (ET) 14 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: N/A\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Xavier Becerra", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alejandro Mayorkas", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lloyd Austin", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Janet Yellen", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Miguel Cardona", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Antony Blinken", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Merrick Garland", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deb Haaland", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Vilsack", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gina Raimondo", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marcia Fudge", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:32.917Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 76898 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Becerra, Alejandro Mayorkas, Lloyd Austin, Janet Yellen, Pete Buttigieg, Marty Walsh, Miguel Cardona, Antony Blinken, Merrick Garland, Deb Haaland, Tom Vilsack, Gina Raimondo, Marcia Fudge" - }, - { - "title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8573/30-of-fortune-500-ceos-non-white-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n[Princeton’s incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\nEach year Fortune magazine publishes the [Fortune 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of Fortune 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of Fortune 500 CEOs are white.\nWill less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?\nThis resolves positively if a credible estimate indicates that at most 70% of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 list for the year 2050 are non-Hispanic white. In the event Fortune does not publish a list of top 500 companies for 2050 other credible lists of the top 500 US companies in the year 2050 may be used for resolution. If credible estimates disagree, the estimate indicating the lowest proportion of non-Hispanic white CEOs will be used.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:01:05.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T19:02:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-15 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7713/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-15-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Fifteenth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Eliza Alvarado", - "probability": 0.37735849056603776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ruben Ramirez", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michelle Vallejo", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Julio Garza", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vanessa Tijerina", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Rigney", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:26.663Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 225 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Eliza Alvarado, Ruben Ramirez, Michelle Vallejo, Julio Garza, Vanessa Tijerina, John Rigney" - }, - { - "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:04:00.403Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 160, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2148-in-its-2022-report-will-the-board-of-trustees-for-medicare-project-the-year-of-asset-depletion-of-the-hospital-insurance-trust-fund-hi-aka-medicare-part-a-to-be-2025-or-before", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program ([Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds)). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 ([Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report](https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf), see page 6 in the report).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:42.061Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 24, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \nAccording to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and that this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. Through 2020, the hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2022 be the hottest year on record?\nThis question will resolve positively if 2022 is the hottest year on record according to [NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event that there is a statistical tie with a previous year, this question will resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:17:29.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 309, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7552/stone-mountain-defaced-before-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Stone Mountain](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-will-happen-stone-mountain-americas-largest-confederate-memorial-180964588/) in DeKalb County, Georgia, features the largest Confederate memorial anywhere. At roughly 25 by 60 meters, the monument is also the largest bas-relief carving in the world. It depicts Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his generals Robert E. Lee and \"Stonewall\" Jackson heroically on horseback.\nAfter the Charlottesville rally of 2017, and especially after the George Floyd protests of 2020, [removals and defacements of Confederate monuments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials) in the United States accelerated. Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacy Abrams has called Stone Mountain \"a blight on our state [that] should be removed,\" while Republican Governor Brian Kemp has pledged to \"protect Stone Mountain and historical monuments in Georgia from the radical left.\"\nWill the Stone Mountain Confederate monument be defaced or destroyed before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if the Confederate relief on Stone Mountain is destroyed, or defaced by irreversibly removing stone, before 2035. It must be defaced sufficiently such that damage is readily identifiable when the monument is viewed from a distance, or in a 1 megapixel photograph depicting the entire carved area. The question resolves negatively if Stone Mountain is not so defaced before 2035.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:19:14.127Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:45:58.978Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 83, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Russia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Russia is Putin, who has been in power for 21.2 years. Russia has a personal regime type which has lasted for 27 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0036597", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9963403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Russia", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Putin", - "month_risk": "0.0003441", - "annual_risk": "0.0036597", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "27", - "leader_years": "21.16667", - "country_code": "RUS", - "country_abb": "RUS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7652/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-New-Mexico-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6862745098039215, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.3137254901960784, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:01.383Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 9204 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:16:35.440Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1635, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Italy have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-spain-on-march-1st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Italy has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1328296869321704364386785787285573", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8671703130678295635613214212714427", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "62", - "liquidity": "1143.11", - "tradevolume": "1793.15", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:10:24.515Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 166, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by May 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-may-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to May 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.8570503221944839789776303052659322", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.1429496778055160210223696947340678", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "64", - "liquidity": "300.06", - "tradevolume": "1219.50", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8599/semaglutide-approval-withdrawn-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2809%2961375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It’s marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it’s reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don’t yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587%2819%2930249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).\nWill the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for Semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly injection) by 2027-01-01. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:24.003Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected to be the Republican Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163916", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Republican National Convention. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Republican Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.4294676882589047, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.1836344598072558, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.0788948049542284, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06656749168013022, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.0394474024771142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.025359044449573414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.028028417549528513, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.013313498336026044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.024206360610956445, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.02130159733764167, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.0012832287552796188, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.012530351375083335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Sasse", - "probability": 0.0014392971174082211, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.0019365088488765155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.0053253993344104175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.005917110371567131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.002420636061095644, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Crenshaw", - "probability": 0.0013482023631418778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paul Ryan", - "probability": 0.005917110371567131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kanye West", - "probability": 0.0017751331114701392, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Carson", - "probability": 0.005917110371567131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Christie", - "probability": 0.007100532445880557, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", - "probability": 0.0010868161906960037, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Cheney", - "probability": 0.002420636061095644, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greg Abbott", - "probability": 0.003227514748127526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Kasich", - "probability": 0.0013482023631418778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Evan McMullin", - "probability": 0.0011211367019811405, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Condoleezza Rice", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lisa Murkowski", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rand Paul", - "probability": 0.0026626996672052088, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Kushner", - "probability": 0.0011211367019811405, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeb Bush", - "probability": 0.0021736323813920074, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joni Ernst", - "probability": 0.001109458194668837, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Shapiro", - "probability": 0.001196718951552903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Gaetz", - "probability": 0.0011704174361341576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Brady", - "probability": 0.002048230513234776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.001075838249375842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Devin Nunes", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lindsay Graham", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bobby Jindal", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "James Mattis", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Perry", - "probability": 0.0010868161906960037, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.0011330636881724293, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Orrin Hatch", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Collins", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Bannon", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitch McConnell", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Trump", - "probability": 0.0011704174361341576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Winsome Sears", - "probability": 0.0010650798668820835, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 176987.5 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Tim Scott, Ivanka Trump, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Mitt Romney, Dan Crenshaw, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, John Kasich, Evan McMullin, Condoleezza Rice, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Jared Kushner, Jeb Bush, Joni Ernst, Ben Shapiro, Matt Gaetz, Tom Brady, Jim Jordan, Devin Nunes, Lindsay Graham, Bobby Jindal, James Mattis, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Orrin Hatch, Susan Collins, Steve Bannon, Mitch McConnell, Eric Trump, Winsome Sears" - }, - { - "title": "Will any incumbent senator lose a primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7617/Will-any-incumbent-senator-lose-a-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, in the 2022 Midterm primaries, any sitting United States Senator contests and loses a primary election for a United States Senate seat.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for United States Senate elections, only the primary for the party that the Senator caucuses with in the United States Senate shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for United States Senate elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Senator to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate. \nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:58.984Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 14210 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Finland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Finland is Sanna Marin, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Finland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0014357", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9985643, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Finland", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Sanna Marin", - "month_risk": "0.0001176", - "annual_risk": "0.0014357", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "21", - "leader_years": "1.25", - "country_code": "FIN", - "country_abb": "FIN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:27:32.264Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Back Of My Mind by H.E.R. win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-6", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Back Of My Mind by H.E.R. has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 9528 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2134-what-will-be-the-average-temperature-at-dubai-international-airport-between-1-may-2022-and-30-september-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from Meteostat ([Meteostat](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194)). On the page, set the date range for \"2021-05-01 - 2021-09-30\" in the field above the \"Avg. Pressure\" field and click the \"Export\" button. The average of the daily averages (\"tavg\" in the file) will be used for resolution. Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, the average temperature was 35.48497 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2020](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2020-05-01/2020-09-30)). For the same period in 2019, the average temperature was and 35.63268 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2021](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2019-05-01/2019-09-30)). This question will be resolved with data available on 7 October 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 37.5 degrees Celsius", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:58.697Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 148, - "numforecasters": 55, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius, Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius, Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 37.5 degrees Celsius" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Kosovo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Kosovo is Hoti, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Kosovo has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0074229", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9925771, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Kosovo", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hoti", - "month_risk": "0.0011114", - "annual_risk": "0.0074229", - "risk_change_percent": "0.04", - "regime_years": "13", - "leader_years": "0.75", - "country_code": "UNK", - "country_abb": "KOS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden picks Harris for SCOTUS in 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A266", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:39:02.262Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 310, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 1,000. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:46.847Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 20, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.17894736842105263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.7684210526315789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.010526315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.042105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Macron and Le Pen, Macron, but not Le Pen, Le Pen, but not Macron, Neither of them" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7599/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Wes Moore", - "probability": 0.37142857142857144, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Peter Franchot", - "probability": 0.29523809523809524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rushern Baker", - "probability": 0.12380952380952381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Perez", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John King Jr.", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Doug Gansler", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ashwani Jain", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Rosenbaum", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Laura Neuman", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:35.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 21588 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Wes Moore, Peter Franchot, Rushern Baker, Tom Perez, John King Jr., Doug Gansler, Ashwani Jain, Mike Rosenbaum, Laura Neuman" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2248-before-1-january-2023-will-the-us-senate-independently-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After using a legislative workaround to bypass the 60-vote requirement for an increase in the debt ceiling, Democrats are struggling to find other ways to bypass the filibuster ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/republicans-broke-debt-ceiling-filibuster/index.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/590099-democrats-ponder-plan-b-strategy-to-circumvent-voting-rights-filibuster)). A change requiring action outside of the Senate (e.g., congressional legislation) would not count (e.g., [Senate Bill 610](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/610)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:34.293Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 106, - "numforecasters": 78, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **federal funds rate** be above 0.5% following the Fed's March meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-015", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's March 16, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their March 16, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 15, - "yes_ask": 17, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 29194 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8322/forecasting-inflation-using-unemployment/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \nTo this end, let denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year to the year inclusive:\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable.\nWe ask the following question:\nWill unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?\nThis question resolves positively if the adjusted coefficient of determination of the second regression strictly exceeds that of the first regression, and resolves negatively otherwise. Here, is the end-of-year CPI inflation for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and is the end-of-year unemployment rate for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year .\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:03.347Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 10, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Jamaica in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Jamaica is Holness, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Jamaica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0044174", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9955826, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Jamaica", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Holness", - "month_risk": "0.0003488", - "annual_risk": "0.0044174", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "59", - "leader_years": "5", - "country_code": "JAM", - "country_abb": "JAM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the 2022 Colorado Republican Senate nominee?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7549/Who-will-be-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-Senate-nominee", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for United States Senator from Colorado.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Eli Bremer", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cory Gardner", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deborah Flora", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron Hanks", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Cooke", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Darryl Glenn", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Patrick Neville", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Erik Aadland", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Peter Yu", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:59.246Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 12220 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Eli Bremer, Cory Gardner, Deborah Flora, Ron Hanks, John Cooke, Darryl Glenn, Patrick Neville, Erik Aadland, Peter Yu" - }, - { - "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:19:16.716Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 429, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?\nIf there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?\nThis question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:27:33.284Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 93, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ron DeSantis win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ron-desantis-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ronald Dion de Santis wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.298057832069822183229729808836076", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.701942167930177816770270191163924", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "39", - "liquidity": "2902.41", - "tradevolume": "1028.58", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question is cross-posted on Predictit.Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:34.361Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 966, - "numforecasters": 214, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.\nWill George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?\nThis question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:14:43.111Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 55, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:44:40.311Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **Senate pass a reconciliation bill** by July 4, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECNC-008", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Congress.gov contains documentation of a bill that “passed Senate” between Issuance and July 04, 2022 and contains reconciliation instructions, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see RECNC in the Rulebook for such details.\n\nSuch bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…\"\n\nThis market will close the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of the event or July 4, 2022 at 11:59 PM. It will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM following the release of data for July 4, 2022, or 10:00 AM one week after July 4, 2022. . The resolution source is: Bills that have passed the Senate between Issuance and July 04, 2022, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 32, - "yes_ask": 36, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 12412 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Senegal in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Senegal is Macky Sall, who has been in power for 8.9 years. Senegal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0090797", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9909203, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Senegal", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Macky Sall", - "month_risk": "0.0007004", - "annual_risk": "0.0090797", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "21", - "leader_years": "8.916667", - "country_code": "SEN", - "country_abb": "SEN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which left-wing candidate will be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "The answers \"Several of them\" and \"None of them\" only refer to the three candidates listed, not to the whole set of potential left-wing candidates. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Anne Hidalgo (only)", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yannick Jadot (only)", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arnaud Montebourg (only)", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon (only)", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Fabien Roussel (only)", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Several of them", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "None of them", - "probability": 0.9215686274509803, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Anne Hidalgo (only), Yannick Jadot (only), Arnaud Montebourg (only), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (only), Fabien Roussel (only), Several of them, None of them" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7599/usa-withdraws-from-a-mutual-defence-treaty/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.\nCurrently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nWill the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports completion of a process for the USA to withdraw from any of the following treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports that the USA withdrew military or financial support from any of the above treaties without following the process of withdrawal outlined in the relevant treaties for a continuous period of one year.\nIf a sufficient number of parties to any of the above treaties (other than the USA) withdraws (as above) for the treaty to be dissolved, this does not count towards a positive resolution. For example see Southeast Asia Treaty which dissolved in 1977 after France and Pakistan withdrew.\nResolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. (copied verbatim from [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) )\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:20:55.348Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Lebanon in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Lebanon is Saad Hariri, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Lebanon has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 16 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0098386", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9901614, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Lebanon", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Saad Hariri", - "month_risk": "0.0007765", - "annual_risk": "0.0098386", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", - "regime_years": "16", - "leader_years": "0.4166667", - "country_code": "LBN", - "country_abb": "LEB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Luxembourg in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Luxembourg is Bettel, who has been in power for 7.3 years. Luxembourg has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 150 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0004699", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9995301, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Luxembourg", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Bettel", - "month_risk": "0.0000402", - "annual_risk": "0.0004699", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "150", - "leader_years": "7.25", - "country_code": "LUX", - "country_abb": "LUX" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than France, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-france-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than France, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1562389731971507831090462925598505", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8437610268028492168909537074401495", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "59", - "liquidity": "1120.83", - "tradevolume": "1579.21", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will gain an overall majority of parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "No Overall Majority", - "probability": 0.504430576505392, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Conservative Majority", - "probability": 0.30576253406634535, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Labour Majority", - "probability": 0.1874958935312495, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liberal Democrat majority", - "probability": 0.002310995897013075, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 123826.25 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "No Overall Majority, Conservative Majority, Labour Majority, Liberal Democrat majority" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:08.888Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 272, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-01-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:59.411Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": " ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5779816513761468, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Zemmour", - "probability": 0.29357798165137616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.03669724770642202, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.009174311926605505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Pierre de Villiers, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Piolle, Another woman, Another man, Eric Zemmour, Arnaud Montebourg, Michel Barnier, Another man" - }, - { - "title": "Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).", - "probability": 0.9526172817647263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).", - "probability": 0.022161263441175128, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).", - "probability": 0.020142059292511075, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).", - "probability": 0.005079395501587589, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.641Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR)." - }, - { - "title": "Will Trump be charged with a crime in Georgia by Sept. 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7715/Will-Trump-be-charged-with-a-crime-in-Georgia-by-Sept-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if the State of Georgia, or any county, municipality, or other subdivision thereof, unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. \nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:36.201Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 13007 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden is 2024 DNOM", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A251", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Albania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Albania is Rama, who has been in power for 7.5 years. Albania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0042608", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9957392, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Albania", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Rama", - "month_risk": "0.0004831", - "annual_risk": "0.0042608", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "7.5", - "country_code": "ALB", - "country_abb": "ALB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.\nWill Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:22:05.071Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 194, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-02-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_%28spacecraft%29) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:32.083Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 264, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "19", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "20", - "probability": 0.794392523364486, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "21", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "22", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:26.518Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 2220494 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7736/unique-games-conjecture-resolution/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. It states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.\nWill the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Boaz Barak writes publicly (on Twitter, a blog, or elsewhere) that Elchanan Mossel has won the bet. It resolves negatively if he announces Subhash Khot has won. If there is no announcement by the resolve date, then it resolves positively if there is a peer reviewed paper that was originally uploaded to the ArXiv in 2030 which is accepted in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference by the resolve date. Else, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:24:18.272Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea have more volume in February ‘22 than it did in January ‘22?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-volume-in-february-22-than-it-did-in-january-22", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in February 2022 will exceed its Ethereum Volume it had in January 2022 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked daily at 12:00 PM ET, and finally on March 2, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. \n\nIf on any of the checks the OpenSea volume in February is greater than that of January, the market will resolve “Yes.” If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum in February is less than or equal to that of January on all of the checks, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the time of the last check, DappRadar will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6031124933040722568390745629000668", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3968875066959277431609254370999332", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "39", - "liquidity": "2418.94", - "tradevolume": "3053.16", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Ukraine in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Ukraine is Zelensky, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Ukraine has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0146823", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9853177, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Ukraine", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Zelensky", - "month_risk": "0.0004871", - "annual_risk": "0.0146823", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.17", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "1.833333", - "country_code": "UKR", - "country_abb": "UKR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": ">=52 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A172", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2129-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/business-formation-surged-last-year-confounding-expectations/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/u-s-business-starts-enjoyed-their-best-year-ever-amid-covid-19), [Economic Innovation Group](https://eig.org/news/the-startup-surge-business-formation-trends-in-2020)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=BFS&startYear=2004&endYear=2021&categories=TOTAL&dataType=BA_BA&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=), parameters are set with the link, [Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology](https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/methodology.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 4.2 million", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6.0 million", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:07.291Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, - "numforecasters": 27, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4.2 million, Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive, More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million, Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive, More than 6.0 million" - }, - { - "title": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\nJust wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if both men and women play as part of one tour with one tour organiser. It will still resolve positive if not all tournaments are mixed (ie if some currently all-female or all-male tournaments are part of the tour, that doesn't trigger negative resolution as long as the overarching tour organiser is one body)\nThis question resolves negatively if men and women play as part of two separate tours on the basis of gender.\nIn the event that it is unclear (eg the tennis tour fractures into multiple tours (WTA, ATP, mixed tour)) we will ask [Jeff Sackmann's](http://www.tennisabstract.com/) opinion and resolve on the basis of that. (In the event he says it's unclear / is uncontactable / unwilling to decided it resolves ambiguous)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:56.283Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 22, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Baby Keem win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-3", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Baby Keem has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 20758 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:11.341Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 13914 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Portugal in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Portugal is de Sousa, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Portugal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 45 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0021564", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9978436, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Portugal", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "de Sousa", - "month_risk": "0.000158", - "annual_risk": "0.0021564", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", - "regime_years": "45", - "leader_years": "5", - "country_code": "PRT", - "country_abb": "POR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Texas average more than 75,000 new COVID-19 cases** per day by February 1? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-011", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Texas is above 75,000 for a single day between Issuance and February 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occurred, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for February 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Texas according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 186910 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Joe Biden's approval rating** be greater than 41% on February 04, 2022? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-022", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than 41% at 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 69, - "yes_ask": 73, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 6956 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). Benjamin Netanyah, as the Prime Minister of Israel, tasted cultivated meet in December 2020 and [according to PR Newswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/il/news-releases/israels-prime-minister-tastes-aleph-farms-cultivated-steak-301187468.html) declared:\n\"I have directed the State Secretary Tzahi Braverman to appoint a body to serve these industries in order to connect and oversee all the stakeholders operating in this field. Israel will become a powerhouse for alternative meat and alternative protein.\"\nAccording to Bruce Friedrich, Executive Director of The Good Food Institute \"The Israeli government has turned the country into a nerve center for plant-based and cultivated meat innovation.\"\nAlso several world's leading cultivated meat companies like Aleph Farms, SuperMeat, MeaTech and Future Meat Technologies have headquarters in Israel. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the Israel approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:14:46.739Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"\nWill there be a US-Russia war by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if there's a war between the US and Russia by 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:15:14.425Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 156, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:58:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next James Bond be female?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8315/next-james-bond-female/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\nIt is widely understood that No Time To Die will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n---[\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/) \n---[\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/) \nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)\nWill the next James Bond be female?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next action film released by Eon films in the James Bond universe with the main character being a female intelligence officer.\nThis question should retroactively close 1 week before a media report around casting is confirmed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:48:42.201Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 57, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.030000000000000027, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:51:59.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 133, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2107-when-will-the-scottish-government-officially-request-discussions-on-or-agreement-to-a-section-30-order-from-the-uk-government-that-would-enable-the-scottish-government-to-call-a-new-independence-referendum", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-tells-boris-johnson-new-vote-is-when-not-if-12302257), [House of Commons Library](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/whats-the-process-for-a-second-independence-referendum-in-scotland/), [Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8738/CBP-8738.pdf)). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., [2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May](https://firstminister.gov.scot/first-minister-letter-delivered-to-prime-minister/)) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., [Scottish Parliament's \"Scotland's Choice\" Motion](https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/votes-and-motions/votes-and-motions-search/S5M-04710)) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 January 2023", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:31.551Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 321, - "numforecasters": 135, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, Not before 1 January 2023" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as \"extinction\".\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to zero within 50 years of the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations. For simplicity, we will consider detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of another detonation (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the nuclear conflict wasn't the sole cause, a major cause, or even a contributing factor in the eventual extinction event. (This is because it would be useful for this question to capture instances in which the nuclear conflict merely contributed to rather than solely or directly causing extinction, but it seems hard to capture that neatly except via this more expansive resolution criteria.) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:05.340Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Lithuania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Lithuania is Nauseda, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Lithuania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0028476", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9971524, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Lithuania", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nauseda", - "month_risk": "0.0002419", - "annual_risk": "0.0028476", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "1.666667", - "country_code": "LTU", - "country_abb": "LIT" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Senate break legislative filibuster with less than 3/5 support in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7692/Will-the-Senate-break-legislative-filibuster-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nA cloture vote on a motion to proceed shall be relevant for the resolution of this market. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying invocation of cloture must occur through a recorded vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:30.103Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 13414 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8140/india-have-200-nuclear-warheads-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.\nWill India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:49.167Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 53, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8460/imf-approves-debt-service-for-us-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.\nIf this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s.\nWill the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if the IMF executive board approves debt service relief on the US' debt any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:54:56.161Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-08T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will average daily **COVID-19 case numbers in Italy** be above 125,000 for the week ending February 07, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-018", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy in the period between in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 is greater than 125,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 07, 2022, or 10:00 AM on February 21, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 01, 2022 and February 07, 2022 for Italy as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 2, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 5394 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Latvia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Latvia is Karins, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Latvia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0029086", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9970914, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Latvia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Karins", - "month_risk": "0.0002427", - "annual_risk": "0.0029086", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "2.166667", - "country_code": "LVA", - "country_abb": "LAT" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.5% following the Fed's December meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-012", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's December 14, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their December 14, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 93, - "yes_ask": 94, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 3646 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:44:09.630Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 314, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the America COMPETES Act by April 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7716/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-America-COMPETES-Act-by-April-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the US House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 26, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of a bill that provides funding to support US semiconductor manufacturing and appropriates funds to a federal office tasked with promoting the resilience of supply chains. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website house.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"220 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"253 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "220 or fewer", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "221 to 224", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "225 to 228", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "229 to 232", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "233 to 236", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "237 to 240", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "241 to 244", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "245 to 248", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "249 to 252", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "253 or more", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:41.891Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 12437 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "220 or fewer, 221 to 224, 225 to 228, 229 to 232, 233 to 236, 237 to 240, 241 to 244, 245 to 248, 249 to 252, 253 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:37:28.370Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:02:40.031Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics ](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html)to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.", - "probability": 0.7469908609359496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.", - "probability": 0.21943257968810703, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.", - "probability": 0.03357655937594347, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career." - }, - { - "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:19:36.619Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Liberal Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180957876", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.8407503114471758, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Josh Frydenberg", - "probability": 0.05087617269270089, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Peter Dutton", - "probability": 0.09448432071501593, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greg Hunt", - "probability": 0.009920853675076674, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alan Tudge", - "probability": 0.003968341470030669, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.014Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 75085.55 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Peter Dutton, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge" - }, - { - "title": "Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)\nWill >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, at least 3 countries have each had at least one offensive nuclear detonation by another country occur on or over a point that is within their territories. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated offensively on or over the territories of each of China, North Korea, and the US, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon between this question opening and the start of 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nDetonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDifferent countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:15.088Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will resolve to No, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:22.705Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 215380 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7636/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on December 10, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nGerman Chancellor Olaf Sholz's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sanna Marin", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:30.627Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 99195 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Viktor Orbán, Mario Draghi, Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Olaf Scholz, Mark Rutte, Sanna Marin" - }, - { - "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7518/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Prime Minister Kishidia Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Xi\" and \"Kishida\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.4122807017543859, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.21052631578947364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.13157894736842105, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.10526315789473682, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.07017543859649122, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kishida Fumio", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:23.319Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 196845 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Xi Jinping, Kishida Fumio" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\nDespite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".\nBy 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?\nThis question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.\nAnswers to the Gallup poll which refer to space or space governance include:\n---Any answer which refers to an aerospace organization, program or object, such as “NASA” or “Sputnik”. \n---Any answer which directly refers to something related to space governance. This does not include indirect references, such as “foreign policy” (even if space governance is at the time an important part of foreign policy). This is to be decided by Metaculus moderators. \nIf the Gallup poll is discontinued the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:30:38.483Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-07-31T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:03.188Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 447, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-24T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8102/times-university-ranking-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In September 2021, the University of St Andrews placed first in the UK on the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022. This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-univers…](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-university-rankings-revealed-the-times-league-table-dbxtwgm70)\nWill a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?\nThis question will resolve positive if neither Oxford nor Cambridges places first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023. It resolves negative if Oxford or Cambridge place first. It will resolve ambiguously if the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide is discontinued. \nThe ranking will be published in late September 2022. Positive resolution will be ascertained by the official publication of the ranking on [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:38:52.891Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 22, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8582/smoking-and-sex-less-prevalent-in-us-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nAll socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.\nWill smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if any credible surveys of US adults in the year 2050 report that the share of adults who have smoked in the past week and the share of adults who have had sex in the past week were both lower than in the year 2021. Comparisons between 2050 and 2021 must be of similar methodology (see fine print) to count towards resolution. If no comparable surveys can be found for both smoking and sex by the resolution date of December 31, 2054, this resolves ambiguously. This resolves positively if any credible surveys would result in positive resolution, conflicting surveys will be considered irrelevant.\nRegarding similar methodology, if a survey in 2021 includes e-cigarettes and a survey from 2050 does not the surveys would not be considered to have similar methodology. However, different methodologies can still be acceptable if it can be logically deduced that the surveys provide evidence toward resolution. For example, if a survey in 2021 asked whether respondents had sex in the past year and 25% answered no, and a survey in 2050 asked if respondents had sex in the past five years and 40% answered no, it can be deduced that a larger share of adults in 2050 had not had sex in the past year than in 2021 because the five year period would include the past year. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:01:37.184Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:13:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:53:14.596Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 353, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWill McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?\nThis question will resolve positively if McDonald's is the first of the following the feature a cultivated meat product on their menu in any location: Subway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, or Hardee's. This question will resolve negatively if none of these QSRs offer cultivated meat by the resolution date (December 31, 2026)\nA restaurant is said to feature a cultivated meat product on its menu, if, in at least one location that is open to the public, any member of the public is able to order the product, without requiring a reservation. \nThe product must be for sale, and free samples do not count. \"Pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution.\nAny product and any meat may count for positive resolution (nuggets, patties, hotdogs, and so forth). The relevant meat substitute must contain at least 25% cultivated meat by weight.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:01:30.752Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-22T23:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:44.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:11:26.876Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403/25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nBy 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing. Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:37.151Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:16:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:16:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:50:14.504Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:17.254Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-02-23T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:43:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9021/jwst-sees-first-light-6-weeks-after-launch/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[According to NASA/JWST,](https://jwst.nasa.gov/content/about/faqs/facts.html)\nThe James Webb Space Telescope (sometimes called JWST or Webb) is an orbiting infrared observatory that will complement and extend the discoveries of the Hubble Space Telescope, with longer wavelength coverage and greatly improved sensitivity. The longer wavelengths enable Webb to look much closer to the beginning of time and to hunt for the unobserved formation of the first galaxies, as well as to look inside dust clouds where stars and planetary systems are forming today.\nBut by necessity, the JWST won't do any of these things until it completes an unbelievably complicated sequence of separations, thruster burns, and mechanical deployments, involving well over 300 single-point-of-failure mechanisms; what [the Goddard Space Flight Center website](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/the-road-to-launch-and-beyond-for-nasa-s-james-webb-space-telescope) politely calls the \"29 days on the edge,\" but most of the scientists know as the \"30 days of terror.\"\n[Webb describes what will happen next if all goes well with this sequence:](https://webbtelescope.org/contents/media/images/4180-Image)\nAt 33 days after launch we will turn on and operate the Fine Guidance Sensor, then NIRCam [Near Infrared Camera] and NIRSpec [Near InfraRed Spectrograph]. The first NIRCam image will be of a crowded star field to make sure that light gets through the telescope into the instruments. Since the primary mirror segments will not yet be aligned, the picture will still be out of focus. At 44 days after launch we will begin the process of adjusting the primary mirror segments, first identifying each mirror segment with its image of a star in the camera. We will also focus the secondary mirror.\nBy February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before February 6, 2022 at 12:20 UTC, the James Webb Space Telescope has successfully turned on the NIRCam and captured any image, according to [NASA](https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbLaunch/whereIsWebb.html)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:24:50.955Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 336, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-25T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:42:48.957Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 233, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:43:04.731Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 87, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:39:07.523Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 119, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8555/women-earn-more-than-men-in-2050-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Many studies have been attempted to measure the [gender pay gap in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States). The [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) found median women's wages to be about 81% of men's. Some of this difference can be attributed to confounding variables (such as differences in types of occupation), though the unexplained remaining gap could be attributed to discrimination.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about women in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n...while women’s salaries are not as high on average as men’s now, this has already [switched in urban areas](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/14/a-different-kind-of-gender-gap-seven-places-where-women-earn-more-than-men), which is generally a predictive indicator, and therefore women’s wages in the workplace will indeed be greater than men in terms of their salaries by 2050.\nWill median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the median usual weekly real earnings for wage and salary workers age 16 and over are higher for women than men in the fourth quarter of 2050, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](http://www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm). The data since 1979 is available in [this FRED chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) for men and women. If BLS stops publishing the relevant economic data, other credible data that provides a similar comparison between the median wages of adult men and women may be used.\nIf FRED no longer distinguishes data for men and women or definitions have changed, any data that compares wages on the basis of either sex at birth or current sex or gender identity as may be used for resolution. Where different estimates would result in a different resolution, Metaculus Admins may resolve according to the most high-quality data or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:00:07.766Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-12-31T19:31:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Why was Stonehenge built?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "Stonehenge may be the most famous of all megaliths. Various theories attribute its construction to Druids, Merlin, and even aliens. Although it is clear that Stonehenge was deliberately constructed, no one really knows why. This analysis focuses on the original purpose for which it was built, irrespective of what its functions may have been after it was constructed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.", - "probability": 0.8105659668974038, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stonehenge was built as a burial site.", - "probability": 0.1313461492124186, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.", - "probability": 0.056899570682862534, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.", - "probability": 0.0011883132073152599, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe.", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.641Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship., Stonehenge was built as a burial site., Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker., Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing., Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe." - }, - { - "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:20:51.440Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2245-will-employees-at-amazon-s-bessemer-alabama-warehouse-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-unionize-in-their-next-scheduled-election", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/amazon-union-election-in-alabama-to-begin-in-february.html), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/11/22878457/amazon-bessemer-alabama-union-election-redo-february-fourth)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:40.400Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 152, - "numforecasters": 80, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9491/singaporean-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:43:12.431Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2021, will Ivan Duque lose power in Colombia?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Duque, president of Colombia, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Duque has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601/glp-1-based-drug-approval-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.\nWill a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n“Small molecule GLP-1-based drug” is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target. For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:34.316Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:11:37.177Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 54, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Gustavo Petro", - "probability": 0.4491525423728813, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sergio Fajardo", - "probability": 0.1694915254237288, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rodolfo Hernández", - "probability": 0.10169491525423727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alejandro Char", - "probability": 0.07627118644067796, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Federico Gutiérrez", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Juan Manuel Galán", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marta Lucía Ramírez", - "probability": 0.033898305084745756, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Humberto de la Calle", - "probability": 0.033898305084745756, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tomás Uribe", - "probability": 0.025423728813559317, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Óscar Iván Zuluaga", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:35.121Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 25258 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Gustavo Petro, Sergio Fajardo, Rodolfo Hernández, Alejandro Char, Federico Gutiérrez, Juan Manuel Galán, Marta Lucía Ramírez, Humberto de la Calle, Tomás Uribe, Óscar Iván Zuluaga" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8539/nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai-globally/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that such a state has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the head of state; the head of the state's ministry of defense or equivalent; a similarly important and relevant officia; head of one of the state's military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the state's nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important diplomacy official from that state such as the state's ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:43.974Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win GA 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A160", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/from-nate-silver-will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requirement-on-us-domestic-flights-on-november-8-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market about whether there will be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022, posited by Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1476930984931168276?s=21.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if on November 8, 2022, all ordinary domestic airplane travellers are required by law to wear a mask that completely covers the mouth and nose while using airplane transportation. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor this market to resolve to “Yes”, the mandate must be issued by a federal agency, such as the CDC or TSA - not solely by airplane companies.\n\nPlease note, if there is a mask mandate that is applicable to all ordinary passengers but vaccinated people, it will NOT be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes.”\n\nNote also that the mask mandates in question do not have to be due to COVID-19. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4308532819224009231236609300180739", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5691467180775990768763390699819261", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "131", - "liquidity": "3450.85", - "tradevolume": "10378.21", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/141-what-will-the-big-5-tech-companies-average-reputation-ranking-be-in-the-2022-harris-poll", @@ -44401,10 +48369,47 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" }, { - "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Malawi in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Malawi is Chakewera, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Malawi has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0141187", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9858813, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Malawi", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Chakewera", + "month_risk": "0.0007573", + "annual_risk": "0.0141187", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.21", + "regime_years": "27", + "leader_years": "0.75", + "country_code": "MWI", + "country_abb": "MAW" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)\nThis resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.\n", + "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)\nConditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?\nThis question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there is an agreement after 2026 that both US and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually has very similar terms to New START. \nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n--- \n[Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -44417,2238 +48422,14 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:51:33.828Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:58.810Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-11-04T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate ([Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/rubio-pushes-for-new-china-sanctions-amid-questions-over-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory-210036093.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/wuhan-lab-leak-sanctions-republicans-a2b98782-17f6-4d9c-b016-8da0885796e1.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/lab-leak-theory-s-revival-risks-upending-any-u-s-china-detente)). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/asia/us-hong-kong-china-sanctions-intl-hnk/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-sanctions/u-s-sanctions-two-more-chinese-officials-over-alleged-xinjiang-abuses-idUSKBN2BE289), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-beijing-south-china-sea-coronavirus-pandemic-china-01a64686a1b740b919af7b9d32d1c295)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:43.678Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 386, - "numforecasters": 180, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:30:35.887Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8997/new-variant-of-concern-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The World Health Organization publishes a list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added [Omicron](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron) to this classification, bringing the total number of VoCs to 5.\nWill WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if anytime between December 24, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the World Health Organization adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This may include a reclassification of any variant or descendent of a variant currently known in December 24, 2021 as a Variant of Interest or Variant Under Monitoring. Classifications by other sources or organizations such as the [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/) or [ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) are irrelevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:23:42.973Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8677/smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\".\nWill small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:07:37.566Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 106, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the TX-30 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7630/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-TX-30-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirtieth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jasmine Crockett", - "probability": 0.8584905660377359, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jessica Mason", - "probability": 0.056603773584905655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jane Hamilton", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vonciel Jones Hill", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Zachariah Manning", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Abel Mulugheta", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shenita Cleveland", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:18.304Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 8724 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jasmine Crockett, Jessica Mason, Jane Hamilton, Vonciel Jones Hill, Zachariah Manning, Abel Mulugheta, Shenita Cleveland" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.40196078431372545, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:13.322Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 120826 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by October 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-october-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time October 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2062476424466689777443545362753297", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7937523575533310222556454637246703", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.334Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "28", - "liquidity": "1585.23", - "tradevolume": "1177.69", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.\nWill China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:29:40.222Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 83, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:33.975Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 208271 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Donald J Trump", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A180", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Joe Biden", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A184", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "Much higher than conventional wisdom", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\nIn the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nWill 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:48:36.346Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will UST (TerraUSD) lose its peg by March 1st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ust-terrausd-lose-its-peg-by-march-1st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of TerraUSD (UST) as shown on Coingecko is below $0.90 for 5 or more continuous hours within the market timeframe, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market timeframe spans from January 28 2022 (12:00:00 PM ET) to the resolution time, March 1 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). The resolution source for this market will be https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-usd, and if unavailable, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terrausd/.\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used. \"Continuously for 5 hours\" means all 30 minute candles during the 5 hour timeframe must have high (\"H:\") prices lower than $0.900000.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07111599584809449450483505633666438", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9288840041519055054951649436633356", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "142", - "liquidity": "23331.07", - "tradevolume": "53619.35", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Guinea is Conde, who has been in power for 10.3 years. Guinea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0234089", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9765911, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Guinea", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Conde", - "month_risk": "0.0032634", - "annual_risk": "0.0234089", - "risk_change_percent": "0.23", - "regime_years": "10", - "leader_years": "10.25", - "country_code": "GIN", - "country_abb": "GUI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Joe Biden's approval rating** be greater than 40% on February 04, 2022? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-020", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than 40% at 10:00 AM on February 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.030000000000000027, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 96, - "yes_ask": 98, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 4790 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-us-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.’ A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/eu-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the EU.\nWill the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves positively if any branch of the US federal government makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-20. It is not necessary for this proposal to recieve a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:41.572Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:38:51.813Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 125, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:18:12.276Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 238, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Bahrain in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Bahrain is Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah, who has been in power for 22.0 years. Bahrain has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0046588", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9953412, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Bahrain", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah", - "month_risk": "0.0003778", - "annual_risk": "0.0046588", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "50", - "leader_years": "22", - "country_code": "BHR", - "country_abb": "BAH" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9612/joe-rogan-leaves-spotify/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Several musicians and podcast producers have recently [cut ties with Spotify](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2022/01/31/spotify-wont-pull-joe-rogan--but-comedian-open-to-change-and-even-issued-apology-to-neil-young/?sh=171804ba5c2e), insisting that Spotify ban or censor Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. Spotify's stock price [has fallen](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE) from January 1 to January 30 2022, although it [rebounded](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spotify-says-it-will-add-content-advisory-podcasts-that-discuss-covid-2022-01-31/) following a public apology from Rogan.\nWill Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if Joe Rogan formally stops publishing a podcast on Spotify any time between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023. This would include Rogan moving to a different platform, getting banned from Spotify, or voluntarily ending his podcast. Public statements by Rogan or Spotify will qualify as a resolution source.\nIn the case of ambiguity, if there are any episodes of a Joe Rogan podcast uploaded during January 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:47:48.972Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 10, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ripple-xrp-or-cardano-ada-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Ripple", - "probability": "0.2393266323547035304375664202641251", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cardano", - "probability": "0.7606733676452964695624335797358749", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "141", - "liquidity": "1075.22", - "tradevolume": "1917.98", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ripple, Cardano" - }, - { - "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:37:18.818Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 87, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8589/the-us-re-ratification-of-inf-treaty-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):\n\"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers of different ranges, excluding sea-launched missiles. \n[...] Amidst continuing growth of China's missile forces, US President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that he was withdrawing the US from the treaty due to supposed Russian non-compliance. The United States claimed another reason for the withdrawal was to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within the South China Sea, as China was not a signatory to the treaty. The US formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so on the following day in response. The US formally withdrew from the treaty on 2 August 2019.\"\nThe likelihood of the US re-joining the INF Treaty has implications for nuclear risk both directly (as the treaty plausibly reduces nuclear risk) and as a proxy of geopolitical tensions and the health of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US.\nBy 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, between the question opening and 2024, there are credible reports that US President has announced it (unconditionally) intends to either (1) re-join the INF Treaty or (2) sign a new arms control treaty which the President describes as the successor to the INF Treaty. In the latter case, ratification by 2024 isn't necessary (just signing), and, for simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess the President on whether this treaty really is a successor to the INF Treaty. \nFor positive resolution, it would not be sufficient for the US President to make a conditional announcement, such that as the US intends to re-join the INF Treaty if Russia takes some particular action that Russia is not already taking.\nConversely, positive resolution does not require that the US actually re-join the INF Treaty (or sign a successor treaty) by 2024. Positive resolution also does not require that Russia announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:13.696Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Montero by Lil Nas X win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-7", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Montero by Lil Nas X has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 15296 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Israel in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Israel is Netanyahu, who has been in power for 12.0 years. Israel has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 73 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0057808", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9942192, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Israel", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Netanyahu", - "month_risk": "0.0002394", - "annual_risk": "0.0057808", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "73", - "leader_years": "12", - "country_code": "ISR", - "country_abb": "ISR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\nWill the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:03:32.435Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Kuwait in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Kuwait is Nawaf Al-Sabah, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Kuwait has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 72 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0037281", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9962719, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Kuwait", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nawaf Al-Sabah", - "month_risk": "0.0003022", - "annual_risk": "0.0037281", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "72", - "leader_years": "0.5", - "country_code": "KWT", - "country_abb": "KUW" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/gc-caused-by-natural-pandemic-if-gc-occurs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nOn this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe. As of November 25, [The Economist's median estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) for the COVID-19 global death toll is 17.3M, which amount to 0.22% of the global population:\nAlthough the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5.2m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 17.3m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.8m and 20.2m additional deaths.\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on our definition. It is estimated that the bubonic plague pandemic, which ocurred in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353, killed [between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history). Using [estimates of the global population at the time](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html), these numbers suggest that the Black Death killed between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?\nThe question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opossed to being synthesized, edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:11:03.909Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will J. Michelle Childs become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-2", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If J. Michelle Childs is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if J. Michelle Childs is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 21, - "yes_ask": 22, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 3776 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 worldwide will be reported as of 28 July 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2191-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-worldwide-will-be-reported-as-of-28-july-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The data for 28 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 July 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 6.0 million", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "8.0 million or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:18.610Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 235, - "numforecasters": 64, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6.0 million, Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive, More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million, Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive, More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million, 8.0 million or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Gambia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Gambia is Barrow, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Gambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 4 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.026067", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.973933, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Gambia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Barrow", - "month_risk": "0.0009784", - "annual_risk": "0.026067", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "4", - "leader_years": "4.166667", - "country_code": "GMB", - "country_abb": "GAM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:24:28.479Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 76, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Panama in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Panama is Laurentino Cortizo, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Panama has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.004619", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Panama", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Laurentino Cortizo", - "month_risk": "0.000387", - "annual_risk": "0.004619", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "31", - "leader_years": "1.666667", - "country_code": "PAN", - "country_abb": "PAN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2177-how-many-public-level-2-and-dc-fast-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-us-as-of-29-april-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Focus is being directed at electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/574926-how-the-us-can-build-ev-charging-infrastructure-that-works)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 29 April 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fueling Station Locator](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC), parameters are set with the link). Data on public Level 2 and DC Fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type,\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to both \"Level 2\" and \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 49,000", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 61,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:52.364Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 245, - "numforecasters": 67, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 49,000, Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive, More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000, Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive, More than 61,000" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2079-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS ([WBUR](https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/06/28/the-prime-effect-inside-amazon-web-services), [Protocol](https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/aws-amazon-cloud-antitrust), [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-jassy-aws-amazon-spin-off-break-up-tim-bray-2021-2), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:42.129Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 235, - "numforecasters": 107, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2157-before-1-july-2022-will-the-cptpp-commission-decide-to-commence-the-accession-process-for-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-and-or-taiwan", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Taiwan, under the name of \"The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu,\" and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/taiwan-applies-to-join-pacific-trade-deal-just-days-after-china), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/23/china-moves-to-join-the-cptpp-but-dont-expect-a-fast-pass/), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/will-china-actually-join-the-cptpp/)). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom ([Institute for Government](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-cptpp), [Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade](https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership), [Global Affairs Canada](https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/decision_cptpp_uk_request-decision_ptpgp_ru.aspx?lang=eng)). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, but only for the PRC", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, but only for Taiwan", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, for both", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:33.248Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 138, - "numforecasters": 53, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, but only for the PRC, Yes, but only for Taiwan, Yes, for both, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?\n(XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:46.808Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 194, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/deworming-recommended-by-givewell-by-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2816%2930242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:13:07.917Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:39:45.435Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 453, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?\nThis question resolves positively, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nNo attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.\nWe request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:53:10.671Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8880/omicron-dominant-variant-dec-31-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of December 7, 2021, GISAID, a global sequencing database reports that the variant of concern (VOC) called Delta by the World Health Organisation is the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2. In the seven days to December 5, 2021, 6,160 of 6,371 (98%) SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced and submitted to GISAID were identified as the Delta variant.\nWill Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?\nThe [GISAID variant tracker ](https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/) will be consulted on January 10, 2023 for the share of SARS-CoV-2 variants sequenced in the week to December 31, 2022 for the share of global sequences by each VOC. If the top variant's name includes \"omicron\" by the resolution source, then this will resolve positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:17:24.025Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 371, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **Joe Manchin** leave Senate Democratic leadership by July 5th?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MANCHIN-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the website of Senator Joe Manchin contains a notice by 10:00 AM on July 05, 2022 that Senator Joe Manchin has left or will leave the Senate leadership of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that he has left or will leave the Democratic Party or its caucus is also sufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Announcements that he will leave conditional on political outcomes (such as provisions being included or excluded from an upcoming bill) are not by themselves sufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see MANCHIN in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Notices on the website of U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 9, - "yes_ask": 12, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 14056 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8050/israel-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. [The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1435398469292904450)\nWill Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that Israel has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:37:23.147Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 22, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:04:47.336Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 217, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:55:50.625Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7816/prototype-of-tesla-bot-by-the-end-of-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\nTesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\nMusk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\nThe robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/).\nWill Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if both of these criteria are fulfilled:\n1-- \nBefore 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:\n* A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.\n* The official website of Tesla, Inc.\n* A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.\n* Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.\n* A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.\n2-- \nThe revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material. \nFor the purpose of this question \"a prototype of a humanoid robot\" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be \"outside\" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).\nA written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:27:49.040Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7975/european-army-before-2032/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\nThe European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it.\nWill there be a European Army before 2032?\nThis question will resolve positive if:\nThere is legislation passed in at least 5 European countries (including one of France, Germany, UK) which makes provisions for an army consisting of units from multiple countries.\nLower level army units (eg platoons, companies, battalions, regiments) need not be mixed. (For example, often countries have armies formed from regional regiments and are still considered national armies). However, senior levels need to be staffed by officers from a range of countries.\nThe army needs to be planned to be an \"Army\". ie a joint battalion (eg the one formed between the Dutch and Germans) would not count. For this question, this means that at least 30,000 soldiers need to be planned to be in such an army.\nThe army needs to report to a supranational organization. It need not be the an EU body or any existing organization. It does need to be specifically European. eg A G7 army would not count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:34:13.202Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8982/belfast-2021-wins-best-picture-oscar/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Belfast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast_%28film%29) (2021) is a comedy-drama movie directed by [Kenneth Branagh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Branagh), which tells a coming-of-age story taking place during [The Troubles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles) in Northern Ireland. It recieved 7 nominations at the [Golden Globe Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_Golden_Globe_Awards) and 11 nominations at the [Critics' Choice Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/27th_Critics%27_Choice_Awards). [RottenTomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/belfast) gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/belfast) gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics.\nThe [94th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards) (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Nominations are scheduled to be announced February 8, 2022.\nWill Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?\nThis question will resolve positively if Belfast wins the Best Picture award at the [2022 Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards), and will resolve negatively otherwise. In the case that Belfast is not nominated for the Best Picture category, this question will retroactively close and resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:22:39.441Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-26T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-28T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:16:57.609Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 436, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_%28Denmark%29) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:18:43.971Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 86, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8758/will-a-variant-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:11:36.274Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 256, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's March meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-005", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's March meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their March 16, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 94, - "yes_ask": 95, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 79806 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:52:27.042Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 285, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/939-will-the-world-health-organization-declare-a-new-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-in-the-next-four-quarters", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. We previously asked a version of this question for the year-period beginning August 1, 2021. The final consensus forecast for that period was 36%. Context. The International Health Regulations (2005) empower the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), defined as \"an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.\" An IHR Emergency Committee comprising a panel of experts advises the WHO Director-General on potential PHEICs. The WHO Director-General makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.Since 2007, the WHO has made six PHEIC declarations: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013–2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018–2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).Resolution details. This question resolves based on an official declaration by the WHO. Question format. This question asks about the four-quarter period (year) beginning with the following quarter. For example, a forecast made on November 15 (Q4) is forecasting January (Q1) through December (Q4) of the following year. It rolls over at the beginning of every quarter: January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.***This question was proposed by P Alex Demarsh (palexd). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:25.808Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 241, - "numforecasters": 134, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100-years-after-apollo/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nWill a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069? \nThis question will resolve positively if a living human sets foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC (100 years after the feat was achieved on the moon on Apollo 11). For resolution, credible media reports will suffice. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:28.311Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 426, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Someone else is 2024 POTUS", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A241", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-16T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Polymarket has grown to host more than $100 million in total volume to date.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ coins, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market?\n---Market is considered to be \"wrongfully resolved\" if Polymarket confirms that or if a supermajority of Metaculus moderators/admins (2/3) thinks that the resolution does not correspond to resolution criteria.\n------This question will not resolve positively if the affected users are compensated within a week after the problem is noticed (e.g. on Polymarket Discord). \n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the platform ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their coins &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's coins would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \nIf no such qualifying event occurs before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n[Edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-27: clarified that a supermajority is 2/3.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:22.788Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 207, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Antigua and Barbuda in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Antigua and Barbuda is Browne, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Antigua and Barbuda has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 39 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0040494", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9959506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Antigua and Barbuda", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Browne", - "month_risk": "0.0003409", - "annual_risk": "0.0040494", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "39", - "leader_years": "6.75", - "country_code": "ATG", - "country_abb": "AAB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:42:38.815Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366%2818%2930135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:15.835Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 225, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will Boris Johson officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160740937", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "For settlement purposes, leading the party in an \"acting leader\" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual's tenure as party leader. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void (Updated - 20/06/2020)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jan 2022 - Mar 2022", - "probability": 0.12299823928900815, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "April 2022 - June 2022", - "probability": 0.2733294206422403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "July 2022 or later", - "probability": 0.6036723400687516, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 861113.03 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jan 2022 - Mar 2022, April 2022 - June 2022, July 2022 or later" - }, - { - "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Renacci", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A85", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Palau in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Palau is Surangel Whipps Jr., who has been in power for 0.2 years. Palau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 40 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.008727", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.991273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Palau", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Surangel Whipps Jr.", - "month_risk": "0.0023637", - "annual_risk": "0.008727", - "risk_change_percent": "0.04", - "regime_years": "40", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "PLW", - "country_abb": "PAL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token or go public first?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-or-go-public-first", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea will launch a token or go public first. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via the official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\n“Going public” in this context can be defined as being publicly traded on a stock exchange, regardless of if they list via IPO, direct listing, or some other method. If they are not listed and publicly trading on a stock exchange, that will not satisfy market conditions.\n\nIf the launching a token criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Token”. If the go public criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Public”. If OpenSea does not release a token or go public by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, or does both at the exact same time, the market will resolve to 50/50.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Token", - "probability": "0.4821973272001442504956623274716692", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Public", - "probability": "0.5178026727998557495043376725283308", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "65", - "liquidity": "8125.61", - "tradevolume": "4595.54", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Token, Public" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Jannik Sinner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner) is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's [Elo rankings](http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html)\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?\". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.\nWill Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?\nResolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).\nResolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nThis question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:18.776Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Papua New Guinea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Papua New Guinea is James Marape, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Papua New Guinea has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 46 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0105224", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9894776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Papua New Guinea", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "James Marape", - "month_risk": "0.0027465", - "annual_risk": "0.0105224", - "risk_change_percent": "0.21", - "regime_years": "46", - "leader_years": "1.833333", - "country_code": "PNG", - "country_abb": "PNG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in San Marino in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of San Marino is Cardelli and Dolcini, who has been in power for 0.4 years. San Marino has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 420 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.000787", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.999213, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "San Marino", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Cardelli and Dolcini", - "month_risk": "0.0000654", - "annual_risk": "0.000787", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "420", - "leader_years": "0.4166667", - "country_code": "SMR", - "country_abb": "SNM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:32:02.206Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532/china-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:44:57.144Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2244-before-1-january-2023-will-the-us-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal), [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-nuclear-talks-2022-options/31634579.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/irans-nuclear-growth-puts-deal-risk), [Congressional Research Service](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46663)). The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:42.191Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, - "numforecasters": 65, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8409/drones-deliver-100-million-parcels-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 [won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBuzzing drones of all shapes and sizes will be common the sky (last year Amazon won FAA approval for its delivery drone service, opening the door for this).\nAccording to the [Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index](https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html) 20.2 billion parcels were [shipped in 2020 in the United States](https://www.pitneybowes.com/content/dam/pitneybowes/us/en/shipping-index/pb_parcelshippinginfographic_2021_final.pdf).\n[According to the USPS](https://pe.usps.com/businessmail101?ViewName=Parcels#:~:text=If%20your%20mailpiece%20isn't,value%20for%20your%20postage%20dollars.) \nIf your mailpiece isn't a postcard, Letter, or a flat (large envelope) , then it's a parcel.\nWill aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if credible estimates state that aerial drones delivered 100 million or more parcels in the United States in any year between 2021 and 2049, inclusive. Drones need not be responsible for the entire delivery chain, parcels shipped by truck to a distribution center where aerial drones complete the deliveries would qualify. The definition of a parcel will conform to the USPS definition (see the link and quote in the question background).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:54:03.178Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 13, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T12:54:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Haiti in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Haiti is Jovenel Moise, who has been in power for 4.1 years. Haiti has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 4 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.013882", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.986118, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Haiti", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Jovenel Moise", - "month_risk": "0.0007789", - "annual_risk": "0.013882", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "4", - "leader_years": "4.083333", - "country_code": "HTI", - "country_abb": "HAI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:50:30.463Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 220, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z" + "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -46671,7 +48452,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:00.261Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:01.207Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 431, "resolution_data": { @@ -46684,1723 +48465,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Cranley", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Pepper", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:33.315Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 12211 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nan Whaley, John Cranley, David Pepper, Emilia Sykes" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Russian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:14:58.872Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 159, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:49:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:35:02.199Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50 on May 2?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GAS-032", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.50 on May 02, 2022, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see GAS in the Rulebook for more information.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data (which is generally scheduled for Monday evenings), or May 09, 2022. The market will always close at 4:59 PM on the day of the expected release of the data.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for May 02, 2022, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 57, - "yes_ask": 61, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 5358 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "The number of autism cases has increased significantly in the past few decades, from approximately [1 in 2,500 children](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf) in 1966 to [1 in 68](http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html) in 2016. The increase in the number of autism cases is attributed in part to [improved screening and broadening of the diagnostic criteria](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf).\nThe alleged association between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism began in 1998, when Andrew Wakefield and several coauthors published a research paper in The Lancet, a leading British medical journal, suggesting a link between them. Wakefield's findings caused great concern among parents in the UK and the US and[ led to a significant drop in vaccinations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH1obrIZ54k&feature=youtu.be&t=350) of children. Numerous subsequent studies have failed to support an association between the administration of the vaccine and autism spectrum disorder. Beginning in 2004, British investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote several articles accusing Wakefield of concealing conflicts of interest, manipulating evidence, and other unethical research practices. In 2010 The Lancet [retracted Wakefield's study](http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2960175-4/abstract) after several elements in the study were found to be "incorrect, contrary to the findings of an earlier investigation."\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism.", - "probability": 0.9989448582556197, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. ", - "probability": 0.00092438670468488, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet.", - "probability": 0.00013075503969541352, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.641Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism., The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. , The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet." - }, - { - "title": "By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8847/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-the-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. Its co-founder, Josh Tetrick, hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\" Another San Francisco-based company, Wildtype, expects commercial sales of its cultured salmon in 2022. Its officials say they will be ready to apply for U.S. regulatory approval to sell its salmon as soon as the USDA and FDA publish the protocols.\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the US approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:14:51.940Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Kiribati in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Kiribati is Mamau, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Kiribati has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0047842", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9952158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Kiribati", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mamau", - "month_risk": "0.0003635", - "annual_risk": "0.0047842", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "5", - "country_code": "KIR", - "country_abb": "KIR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/constitutionality-of-bank-secrecy-act/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/) \nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_%281976%29), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.\nIf the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?\nIf by 2070-01-01, the Supreme Court of The United States hears a case which challenges the constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act of 1970, this question will resolve positively if the court decides it is constitutional. If the BSA is challenged on multiple points and the court finds any part of the act unconstitutional, this question will resolve negatively. If no qualifying cases are decided before 2070-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf a case is dismissed or ruled on procedural grounds, such cases will be ignored for the purposes of this question. If the BSA is repealed through legislation, this question will resolve ambiguously \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:57:40.582Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-olympusdao-ohm-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf OlympusDAO (Ohm) is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1057066915961759084194821599522429", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8942933084038240915805178400477571", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "26", - "liquidity": "3000.00", - "tradevolume": "5645.81", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2226-will-tunisia-hold-a-constitutional-referendum-before-1-august-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "On 13 December 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced that the country would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 25 July 2022, exactly one year after he froze parliament and took over political control of the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/tunisia-is-setting-itself-up-for-an-autocratic-future), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20211213-tunisian-president-calls-referendum-on-constitutional-change-sets-poll-date), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/26/kais-saieds-power-grab-in-tunisia/)). A referendum on either a new constitution or amendments to the existing constitution would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:24.068Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 149, - "numforecasters": 117, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:14:53.608Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 123, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n--\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--Will the Wiki be \"alive\"? \nBy 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?\nThe question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:31:14.891Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jimmie Allen win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-2", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Jimmie Allen has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 17062 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:05:50.463Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 52, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A261", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7003/muon-magnetics-indicative-of-new-physics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On April 7, 2021 researchers at the [Muon g-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon_g-2) experiment at Fermilab [published](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.141801) results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to [speculation](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/long-awaited-muon-measurement-boosts-evidence-for-new-physics/) that it could be a signal of new physics.\nAt 4.2σ, the results fall short of the threshold for a discovery (5σ), but are still unlikely enough to generate excitement. However, previous studies with high sigmas have been overturned based on systematic biases or incorrect background calculations.\nAre Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?\nThe question will resolve negatively if by 2023-04-01 the concensus in the scientific literature is that the discrepancy in muon magnetic moment is <4σ compared to the Standard Model. Results could come in the form of new data, new background computations within the Standard Model, demonstration of systematic bias in the g-2 methodology, etc.\nThe question will resolve positively if the concensus is ≥4σ from the standard model predition. This would imply new particles, new interactions, or other new physics (although compelling theory explaining the magnetic moment is not required for a positive resolution).\nIf no consensus has emerged by 2023-04-01 then the resolution is ambiguous.\nedit 2021-05-01: rephrased resolution criteria, expanded on 'new physics'\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:58:26.083Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's June meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-007", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's June 15, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their June 15, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.030000000000000027, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 96, - "yes_ask": 98, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 3842 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/373-will-china-execute-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-against-vietnam-india-or-taiwan-in-the-next-six-months", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.Related questions. A similar question was published on Metaculus in May 2018 as part of the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see here.Context. Many view China as becoming increasingly military aggressive. Experts are divided on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently stated that although the chance of a \"full-scale invasion of Taiwan\" is unlikely, we might soon see \"escalation short of all-out war.\" China and India have both recently increased their military presence on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the \"preferred warm-up fight\" for China.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A \"national military attack\" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as \"national military attacks\" unless the government claims responsibility for them. * * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.* * *  \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:30.833Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 429, - "numforecasters": 142, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Grenada in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Grenada is Mitchell, who has been in power for 8.1 years. Grenada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 36 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0063924", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9936076, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Grenada", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mitchell", - "month_risk": "0.0005496", - "annual_risk": "0.0063924", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "36", - "leader_years": "8.083333", - "country_code": "GRD", - "country_abb": "GRN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bongbong Marcos", - "probability": 0.7128712871287128, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Leni Robredo", - "probability": 0.13861386138613863, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Manny Pacquiao", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Isko Moreno", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Antonio Trillanes", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Panfilo Lacson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonny Angara", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alan Peter Cayetano", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bong Go", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ernesto Abella", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Leody de Guzman", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Norberto Gonzales", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:16.611Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 105688 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Bongbong Marcos, Leni Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, Isko Moreno, Sara Duterte-Carpio, Antonio Trillanes, Panfilo Lacson, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano, Bong Go, Ernesto Abella, Leody de Guzman, Norberto Gonzales" - }, - { - "title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8493/half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80).\nIn 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?\nThis question will resolve positively if in the year 2050, at least 50% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions are exclusively enrolled in distance education courses, according to the [National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80). If the NCES no longer reports this data, reliable alternate data sources may be used. If the NCES or alternate sources provide multiple data releases for the year 2050 (for example, a set of statistics for each semester) the result showing the largest share exclusively enrolled in distance education courses will be used.\nIn the event postsecondary education is no longer in a similar form as it was at the time the question was written, admins may use their discretion to determine if comparable data can be found for resolution and, if not, may resolve the question ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:55:48.807Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T22:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T22:14:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will RabbitHole airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-rabbithole-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if RabbitHole will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3251135161696994147413993687798559", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6748864838303005852586006312201441", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "61", - "liquidity": "508.95", - "tradevolume": "3060.65", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it is useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve two or more attacking countries, rather than just one.\nWill the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024:\n1-- \nThere are one or more offensive nuclear detonations of nuclear weapons owned by some country, and\n2-- \nWithin 30 days of the first of those detonations, there is at least one offensive detonation of another country's nuclear weapon, against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). For simplicity, no attempt will be made to account for whether the detonation against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s) is truly a \"retaliation\" or even whether it's by a country directly harmed by the original detonation(s); it just needs to occur within 30 days.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\nRelated Questions\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:04.781Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8164/yangs-forward-party-to-take-off/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\nFormer presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \nBusiness Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\nThe book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \nYang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?\nWill a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if any member of Congress, or the president, is at some point while holding office a member of the Forward Party before February 1st 2029. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nCredible media will be used for resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:42:13.721Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 79, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/agi-preceeds-lev/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:09:29.707Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 147, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will MetaMask airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2622053956067809014097341214212472", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7377946043932190985902658785787528", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "301", - "liquidity": "5112.41", - "tradevolume": "17755.08", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:50:08.676Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 236, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:47:59.179Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 103, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.9108910891089109, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pat Grassley", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ashley Hinson", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew Whitaker", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:00.623Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 122198 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Ashley Hinson, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker" - }, - { - "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2208-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-south-korea", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-05/south-koreas-ex-top-prosecutor-to-challenge-moons-party-in-2022-presidential-election), [Korea Herald](http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211128000026)). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-26/south-korea-s-moon-and-ex-rival-mend-fences-ahead-of-election)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic Party of Korea", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "People Power Party", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:57.932Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "numforecasters": 46, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party of Korea, People Power Party, Another candidate" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 nomination for Dallas County district attorney?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7690/Who-will-win-the-2022-nomination-for-Dallas-County-district-attorney", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for District Attorney of Dallas County, Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "John Creuzot", - "probability": 0.7777777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Elizabeth Frizzell", - "probability": 0.2222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:24.074Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 659 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "John Creuzot, Elizabeth Frizzell" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7534/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Los Angeles, California in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Karen Bass", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kevin de León", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Buscaino", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Feuer", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Wendy Greuel", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paul Krekorian", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:46.035Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 11715 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Karen Bass, Kevin de León, Joe Buscaino, Mike Feuer, Wendy Greuel, Paul Krekorian" - }, - { - "title": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2131-will-dubai-s-expo-2020-attract-25-million-visits", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 ([EXPO2020](https://www.expo2020dubai.com/), [Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-easts-first-expo-open-110725927.html), [The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2021/09/19/superstars-to-open-expo-2020-dubai-with-big-bang/)). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:05.463Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 221, - "numforecasters": 81, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8341/aclu-argues-against-free-speech-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Recently, some commenters [have](https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1303352142866993154) [criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/opinion/rbg-aclu-abortion.html) [the ACLU](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html) for abandoning its historic stance in favor of free speech. On 2021-10-17, journalist Glenn Greenwald [predicted](https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1449740659036983308) this on twitter:\nI really believe that within 18-24 months, ACLU - either a state affiliate or the national group - will argue in court that hate speech is outside 1st Amendment protections because it infringes the rights of marginalized groups.\nHistorically, laws regulating [hate speech in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_speech_in_the_United_States) have been found to violate the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech.\nBy 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2024-01-01, any part of the ACLU (either a state affiliate or the national group) argues in any court that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment protections of Freedom of Speech. \"Arguing in Court\" here means providing direct aid in a court, not merely filing an amicus brief or making public statements. \"Hate Speech\" here will mean public speech which is predjudiced or discriminatory towards groups protected by the Fourteenth Amendment, including those defined by disability, race, ethnicity, nationality, national origin, gender, gender identity, or sex.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:50:17.907Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:58:32.881Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 570, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:16:14.312Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 289, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:12:33.585Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 285, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\nWith [Kiev](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv) being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities. \nWill Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports. For the purposes of this question, \"entering Kiev\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Kiev still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:41:27.660Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 126, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:21.101Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 304, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will The Sandbox or Decentraland have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-sandbox-or-decentraland-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether The Sandbox or Decentraland will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for The Sandbox will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/sandbox), specifically the price of the cheapest Sandbox for sale.\nThe resolution source for Decentraland will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/decentraland), specifically the price of the cheapest Decentraland NFT for sale.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at the initial listing time.\n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Sandbox” if at the check time, the floor price of Sandbox is higher than Decentraland. The market will resolve to “Decentraland” if at the check time the floor price of Decentraland is above Sandbox. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Sandbox", - "probability": "0.2204913691630318616649371700580929", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Decentraland", - "probability": "0.7795086308369681383350628299419071", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "45", - "liquidity": "3600.00", - "tradevolume": "5776.11", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sandbox, Decentraland" - }, - { - "title": "A COVID variant is declared a VOHC by 2022 Mar 1", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A255", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556/majority-female-us-senators-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\nBy 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an elected official.\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\nIn the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.\nWill over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:00:12.904Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:42:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Thailand in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Thailand is Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Thailand has a military regime type which has lasted for 7 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0085364", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9914636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Thailand", - "regime_type": "Military", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Prayuth Chan-ocha", - "month_risk": "0.0027831", - "annual_risk": "0.0085364", - "risk_change_percent": "0.05", - "regime_years": "7", - "leader_years": "6.833333", - "country_code": "THA", - "country_abb": "THI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Egypt in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Egypt is al-Sisi, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Egypt has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0120212", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9879788, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Egypt", - "regime_type": "Military-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "al-Sisi", - "month_risk": "0.0020787", - "annual_risk": "0.0120212", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.04", - "regime_years": "2", - "leader_years": "6.75", - "country_code": "EGY", - "country_abb": "EGY" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Luiz Lula da Silva", - "probability": 0.6545454545454544, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.19999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sergio Moro", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Flávio Dino", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ciro Gomes", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Guilherme Boulos", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marina Silva", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "João Doria", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "João Amoêdo", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Fernando Haddad", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eduardo Leite", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:22.159Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 73870 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Luiz Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Sergio Moro, Flávio Dino, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marina Silva, João Doria, João Amoêdo, Fernando Haddad, Eduardo Leite" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Morocco in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Morocco is Muhammad VI, who has been in power for 21.7 years. Morocco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 65 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0046933", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9953067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Morocco", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Muhammad VI", - "month_risk": "0.0003732", - "annual_risk": "0.0046933", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "65", - "leader_years": "21.66667", - "country_code": "MAR", - "country_abb": "MOR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8391/nuclear-conflict-during-summer-season/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n“Nuclear conflict” will be defined as a situation in which there is state use of at least one nuclear weapon against another actor’s territory and/or forces. This state use could be deliberate, inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorised but by an actor in the state’s chain of command (see fine print for definitions). This excludes non-state use of nuclear weapons.\nIf nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?\nThe question resolves positively if the first nuclear strike in the first nuclear conflict before 2030-01-01 happens between June 1st and September 30th inclusive (of any year). \nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict in this period.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:39.079Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the first-elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.\nAn individual elected, appointed, acting as, and/or sworn in as Speaker Pro Tempore will be insufficient to cause the question listing that individual to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Kevin McCarthy", - "probability": 0.6379310344827586, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nancy Pelosi", - "probability": 0.07758620689655171, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Scalise", - "probability": 0.06034482758620689, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.043103448275862065, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hakeem Jeffries", - "probability": 0.043103448275862065, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Elise Stefanik", - "probability": 0.034482758620689655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.025862068965517238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steny Hoyer", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "James Clyburn", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cathy McM. Rodgers", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Karen Bass", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cheri Bustos", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Katherine Clark", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Banks", - "probability": 0.008620689655172414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:56.263Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1382212 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Nancy Pelosi, Steve Scalise, Donald Trump, Hakeem Jeffries, Elise Stefanik, Jim Jordan, Steny Hoyer, James Clyburn, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Adam Schiff, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Katherine Clark, Jim Banks" - }, - { - "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:12.410Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:15.196Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Gabon in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Gabon is Ondimba, who has been in power for 11.4 years. Gabon has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 61 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0183526", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9816474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Gabon", - "regime_type": "Party-Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ondimba", - "month_risk": "0.0024846", - "annual_risk": "0.0183526", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.03", - "regime_years": "61", - "leader_years": "11.41667", - "country_code": "GAB", - "country_abb": "GAB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **high in New York City** be over 42° on Thursday?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NHIGH-258", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for February 03, 2022, is strictly greater than 42°, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see NHIGH in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nPlease be advised to check to see what temperatures have occurred previously in the day. While the market resolves based on the finalized report from the NWS, traders should use other data sources--including other preliminary NWS reporting--to inform their trades.\n\nThe Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM ET on February 03, 2022 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for February 03, 2022, or one week after February 03, 2022.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY for February 03, 2022, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.030000000000000027, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 96, - "yes_ask": 98, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 2224 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the French territory of New Caledonia vote for its independence (or \"full sovereignty\") in the referendum planned on December 12, 2021?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", @@ -48425,571 +48489,285 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n", + "title": "Trump wins the Republican primary in 2023/2024", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A71", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:50:55.524Z", + "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:18.343Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 505, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-12T00:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n", + "title": "Which right-wing candidate will be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "The answers \"Several of them\" and \"None of them\" only refer to the three candidates listed, not to the whole set of potential right-wing candidates. ", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "name": "Michel Barnier (only)", + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "name": "Xavier Bertrand (only)", + "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valérie Pécresse (only)", + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Several of them", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "None of them", + "probability": 0.8019801980198019, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:30:23.263Z", + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 218, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michel Barnier (only), Xavier Bertrand (only), Valérie Pécresse (only), Several of them, None of them" }, { - "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:39:52.583Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Electoral Count Act be amended by July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7705/Will-the-Electoral-Count-Act-be-amended-by-July-1", + "title": "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election", "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 19, 2022 and by the End Date listed below, federal legislation is enacted that amends the Electoral Count Act. For purposes of this market, any amendment to 3 U.S. Code §§ 1-18 shall be sufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nEnactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law. The timing with which relevant amendments go into effect shall not be considered relevant for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who receives a majority of the votes of the appointed presidential electors when the Electoral College votes are cast in the 2024 United States presidential election.\nIn the event that no person receives such a majority, all contracts shall resolve to No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "name": "Donald Trump", + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, + "name": "Joe Biden", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ron DeSantis", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:14.467Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:32.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 10849 + "shares_volume": 770598 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg" }, { - "title": "Will Rudy Giuliani testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee by Mar. 31?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7507/Will-Rudy-Giuliani-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-by-Mar-31", + "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rudy Giuliani testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.\nLive testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. \nShould Mr. Giuliani appear at any hearing, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Giuliani submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.6416666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "name": "Valérie Pécresse", + "probability": 0.12499999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marine Le Pen", + "probability": 0.07499999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Éric Zemmour", + "probability": 0.041666666666666664, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon ", + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nathalie Arthaud", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Philippe Poutou", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Fabien Roussel", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anne Hidalgo", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yannick Jadot", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Xavier Bertrand", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michel Barnier", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "François Baroin", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "N. Dupont-Aignan", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "François Asselineau", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Christiane Taubira", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:14.018Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:07.958Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 23576 + "shares_volume": 590389 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Mélenchon , Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Xavier Bertrand, Arnaud Montebourg, Michel Barnier, François Baroin, N. Dupont-Aignan, François Asselineau, Christiane Taubira" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Maldives in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Maldives is Ibrahim Solih, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Maldives has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 12 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0070793", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9929207, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Maldives", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ibrahim Solih", - "month_risk": "0.0017819", - "annual_risk": "0.0070793", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "12", - "leader_years": "2.333333", - "country_code": "MDV", - "country_abb": "MAD" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the **Euro/USD exchange rate** be above 1.14 on February 4?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FOREX-001", + "title": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GDP-009", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Federal Reserve's H.10 report reports the conversion between the U.S. dollar and Euro on February 04, 2022 is above 1.14, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FOREX in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. Please note that the data is from the Federal Reserve and represents the noon buying rate on the date in question.\n\nData is expected to be released at 4:15 PM on February 7, 2022. The market will close at 4:10 that day. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data or February 18, 2022. . The resolution source is: The foreign exchange rate of Euro with the U.S. dollar for February 04, 2022 according to the Federal Reserve’s H.10 weekly release. (undefined)", + "description": "If real GDP increases by more than 2.5% in Q1 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GDP in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe market will close at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2022, or one week following that expected date of data release.. The resolution source is: The Advance Estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 14, - "yes_ask": 17, - "spread": 3, - "shares_volume": 11594 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7550/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Arizona. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Kari Lake", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Salmon", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kirk Adams", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Gaynor", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kimberly Yee", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:04.159Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 23107 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kari Lake, Matt Salmon, Kirk Adams, Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee" - }, - { - "title": "Will Love For Sale by Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-2", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Love For Sale by Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 19580 + "yes_bid": 29, + "yes_ask": 33, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 8128 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7627/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Alabama.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Kay Ivey", - "probability": 0.6788990825688073, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lynda Blanchard", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tim James", - "probability": 0.14678899082568805, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Zeigler", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Stacy George", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dean Odle", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:07.547Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 19168 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kay Ivey, Lynda Blanchard, Tim James, Jim Zeigler, Stacy George, Dean Odle" - }, - { - "title": "Will A Beautiful Noise by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-2", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If A Beautiful Noise by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 27018 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Djibouti in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Djibouti is Guelleh, who has been in power for 21.8 years. Djibouti has a personal regime type which has lasted for 44 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0172222", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Djibouti", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Guelleh", - "month_risk": "0.0012201", - "annual_risk": "0.0172222", - "risk_change_percent": "0.01", - "regime_years": "44", - "leader_years": "21.83333", - "country_code": "DJI", - "country_abb": "DJI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Malta in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Malta is Abela, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Malta has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0028133", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9971867, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Malta", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Abela", - "month_risk": "0.0002347", - "annual_risk": "0.0028133", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "59", - "leader_years": "1.166667", - "country_code": "MLT", - "country_abb": "MLT" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/", + "title": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n", + "description": "[Gain of Function research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research) (GoF) is a form of experimentation where medical researchers modify viruses and study ways in which they might become more transmissible or deadly. In [October 2014](https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a), The US implemented a ban on funding Gof research, which was later [lifted in December 2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7).\nVox Journalist Kelsey Piper in May 2020 [investigated several incidents](https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-making-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop) of mishandling virus samples and laboratory safety violations. In reviewing the arguments for and against GoF research, Piper found the risks of such research leading to a deadly outbreak to be significant.\nIn a related Metaculus question [\"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/), The median prediction on December 24, 2021 is at 40%.\nWill the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the US government announces a ban on federally funding gain-of-function research, effective anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023. This ban may persist for any length of time, so long as it effectively begins during this period. Official government statements or Credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:32:56.359Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:55.602Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:51:59.843Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 140, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7586/How-many-Senate-seats-will-the-GOP-control-after-the-midterms", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the United States Senate held by a Senator with a Republican party affiliation, at the End Date listed below. \nParty affiliation shall refer to Senator's ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered to be affiliated with a party if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with that party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "46 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009174311926605507, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "47", - "probability": 0.018348623853211014, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "48", - "probability": 0.027522935779816515, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "49", - "probability": 0.05504587155963303, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "50", - "probability": 0.08256880733944955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "51", - "probability": 0.11926605504587158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "52", - "probability": 0.15596330275229361, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "53", - "probability": 0.17431192660550462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "54", - "probability": 0.17431192660550462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "55", - "probability": 0.09174311926605506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "56 or more", - "probability": 0.09174311926605506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:01:05.819Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 298999 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8977/roe-v-wade-overturned-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/) \nAbortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that [55-65% of Americans fall in the middle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/), favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 [more Americans support Roe v Wade](https://news.gallup.com/poll/350804/americans-opposed-overturning-roe-wade.aspx) than wish to overturn it.\nIn October 2021, [Amy Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade). In Texas, [a law effectively banning abortions](https://web.archive.org/web/20211001005809/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/health/texas-abortion-law-facts.html) occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was [dismissed on procedural grounds](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-is-unprecedented-but-the-supreme-court-isnt-treating-it-that-way/). The court also heard arguments in [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under Casey, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022.\nWill the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if, anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the [Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point [before the date of fetal viability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey). This decision may be rendered in [Dobbs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), a case concerning [the Texas Heartbeat Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act), or in another case.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as revocation of medical or professional licenses, or eg. allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:22:13.320Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 @@ -48997,10 +48775,100 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/", + "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8513/addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a university.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \nWill Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?\nResolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:\n--- \nthe National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front\n--- \nwho are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces\n--- \nand who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:38.068Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 255, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:55.750Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 311, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). Benjamin Netanyah, as the Prime Minister of Israel, tasted cultivated meet in December 2020 and [according to PR Newswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/il/news-releases/israels-prime-minister-tastes-aleph-farms-cultivated-steak-301187468.html) declared:\n\"I have directed the State Secretary Tzahi Braverman to appoint a body to serve these industries in order to connect and oversee all the stakeholders operating in this field. Israel will become a powerhouse for alternative meat and alternative protein.\"\nAccording to Bruce Friedrich, Executive Director of The Good Food Institute \"The Israeli government has turned the country into a nerve center for plant-based and cultivated meat innovation.\"\nAlso several world's leading cultivated meat companies like Aleph Farms, SuperMeat, MeaTech and Future Meat Technologies have headquarters in Israel. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the Israel approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:19.897Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -49013,167 +48881,91 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:19.039Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:38.339Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/", + "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "I'm interested in whether the USA will be involved in a major hot war in the next decade. I wasn't satisfied with the resolution criteria of other questions on this topic, so I created this one.\nBy 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?\nFor purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in \"deaths due to kinetic attacks.\" The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.\nThe attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.\nHowever, the attackers need to be \"part of the same team\" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.\nYes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count.\n", + "description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\nThere are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\nToday, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund.\nWill PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively via PsiQuantum company report that they have a quantum computer for sale by 2025.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:56:27.880Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:39.810Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-07T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T14:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:13:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Myanmar in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Myanmar is Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been in power for 5.0 years. Myanmar has a party-military regime type which has lasted for 10 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": "0.0569972", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "probability": 0.9430028, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:37:07.503Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z" - }, "stars": 3 }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Myanmar", + "regime_type": "Party-Military", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Aung San Suu Kyi", + "month_risk": "0.0042533", + "annual_risk": "0.0569972", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.09", + "regime_years": "10", + "leader_years": "5", + "country_code": "MMR", + "country_abb": "MYA" + }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/", + "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:27:58.356Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 341, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_%28Honduras%29) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. \nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\nPróspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).\nWill Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?\nThis question resolves positively if Próspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Próspera do.\nIf Próspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:18:42.103Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Democrat other than Tim Ryan", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A88", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2. \nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\".\nWill the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 8,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nThis question resolves negative if less than 4,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nIf the area is between these amounts we will resolve ambiguous.\nIf the dispute is resolved before the ICJ decides, we will still resolve on the same area based system.\n", + "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -49186,157 +48978,292 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:58:09.003Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:04.435Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jerome Powell", - "probability": 0.9423076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lael Brainard", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roger Ferguson", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Raphael Bostic", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "William Spriggs", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mary Daly", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:26.239Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1742862 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard, Roger Ferguson, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, William Spriggs, Mary Daly" - }, - { - "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/", + "title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8516/50-of-us-adults-own-ar-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n", + "description": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\nan enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).\nWill more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if anytime before January 1, 2050, a credible survey of adults in the US suggests that more than 50% of US adults own any type of personal augmented reality device.\nFor the purposes of this question, a personal augmented reality device is defined as one which is portable and intended to accompany a person from place to place, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment. A handheld smartphone which is occasionally used as an augmented reality device would not qualify (as AR is not its primary use).\nWhere there is reason to believe a survey captures a significant number of devices that do not qualify for question resolution the admins shall use their best judgement or use an alternate survey or method if available, or resolve the question as ambiguous at their discretion.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.43999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:43.358Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:48.462Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 223, + "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:14:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T21:14:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.37254901960784315, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:15.119Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 137963 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6604/us-hyperinflation-in-any-year-before-2050/", + "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries.\nWill annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?\nWill the CPI-U increase by 100% in any year before 2050?\nWe will prefer to resolve using the CPI-U. If the BLS stops reporting the exact CPI-U metric but continues reporting a very similar measure of inflation, and it is similar enough as deemed by the mods, then that will be used. \n", + "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:49:03.913Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:42.346Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 716, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/", + "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lee Zeldin", + "probability": 0.7549019607843137, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Giuliani", + "probability": 0.13725490196078433, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Harry Wilson", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rob Astorino", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Carpinelli", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Catsimatidis", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Pataki", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Gibson", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:30.785Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 54186 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lee Zeldin, Andrew Giuliani, Harry Wilson, Rob Astorino, Mike Carpinelli, John Catsimatidis, George Pataki, Chris Gibson" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", + "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:08.893Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 236, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nWill the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:48.432Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 502, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:57.069Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 59, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 Punjab Legislative election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7710/Which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2022-Punjab-Legislative-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that wins the highest number of seats in the 2022 election to the Punjab Vidhan Sabha, also known as Legislative Assembly. Should two or more such parties be tied for first place, this market will resolve in favor of the party, among those tied, winning the highest share of the popular vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Aam Aadmi Party", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Congress Party", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shiromani Akali Dal", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bharatiya Janata", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:55.538Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 63893 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Aam Aadmi Party, Congress Party, Shiromani Akali Dal, Bharatiya Janata" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8831/liz-truss-to-become-tory-leader-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.\nAs of December 2021, Truss enjoys a [very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party.](https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html)\nWill Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count). The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:33.296Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 92, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Harris is 2024 DNOM", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A252", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -49349,44 +49276,377 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:23:06.538Z", + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be more than 215 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-215-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 215,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7250395048125407858178115578133207", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2749604951874592141821884421866793", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "100", + "liquidity": "12529.38", + "tradevolume": "14987.83", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": ">=46 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A166", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:48.042Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/", + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/) \n---[Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\nWill a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the most recent figures from before the beginning of the civil war from figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures)\n", + "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:27:12.151Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:11.603Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 356, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:25.900Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 371216 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:00.521Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 199, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:44.231Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 203, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \nResolution shall be by credible media report.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:55.991Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 317, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:52.778Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 123, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:43.890Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 197, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-06-12T21:21:40Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9510/ea-global-london-2022-rescheduled/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2022](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-london-2022/) is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nWill EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if EA Global London 2022 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London, UK) at the scheduled dates (15 - 17 April 2022).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:50.833Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 57, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-01T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-18T14:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Back Of My Mind by H.E.R. win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-6", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Back Of My Mind by H.E.R. has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9528 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7640/dominic-cummings-in-power-again/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Dominic Cummings is a [British political strategist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings) most known for his role as Chief Advisor to Boris Johnson from 24 July 2019 until 13 November 2020, and for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n---Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n---holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System) \nWill Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?\nAt question resolution time, a lone Metaculus moderator will consider whether there is a case to be made that resolution is ambiguous. If there is such a case to be made, the question resolves by simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators or admins. Otherwise, the lone Metaculus moderators resolves the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:39.051Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2069-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -49416,1237 +49676,167 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nRoe established the individual right to abortion in 1973 during the first 2 trimesters of a pregnancy (approximately 2 weeks). Roe was later altered in [Planned Parenthood v. Casey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey), reducing the individual's right to abortion to when it is not viable to safely deliver the fetus, which is commonly around 24 weeks of pregnancy, though the earliest patient to survive an early-term birth was born at 21 weeks and 5 days. Casey also found that states may not pass laws placing an undue burden for \"the purpose or effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus\"\nWill Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between July 1 2018 to July 31 2028, the [US Supreme Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients, or the revocation of medical or professional licenses. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n[Dec 10, 2021] casens -- This question's resolution text has been altered, see the fine print for the original.\nBefore Dec 10, 2021, the question's resolution terms were as follows:\nWe specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,\n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\nAND\n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the le1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\nAND\n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:52:53.670Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:22.278Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 347, + "numforecasts": 935, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:22:30.828Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 321, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:03:11.603Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 243, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by February 21st?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-february-21st", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by February 21st, 2022. If Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before February 21st, 2022, 11:59pm ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by February 21, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.190337042472277919351879939641808", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.809662957527722080648120060358192", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "848", - "liquidity": "20562.29", - "tradevolume": "182646.60", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. \n[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [\"de-extinction\"](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&redirect=true&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).\nStudies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Sharebar&utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).\nOn a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?\nResolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:42.584Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 642, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-05-07T13:15:21Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-06-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be elected governor of Michigan in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2224-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-michigan-in-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Republican Party candidate", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:28.231Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 98, - "numforecasters": 71, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:28:25.096Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 190, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8984/norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\nYear Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking \n2018\n1 (tied)\n1\n1\n1\n2014\n1 (tied)\n8\n1 (tied)\n3\n2010\n4\n3\n4\n4\n2006\n13\n4\n1\n6\n2002\n1\n3\n4\n3\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines.\nWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics).\nIn the event that 2 or more countries are tied for the most Gold medals, the tie will be broken by whoever wins the most Silver medals. If those are also tied, the tie will be broken by Bronze medals. If they remain tied, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the case that the Winter Olympics are cancelled or postponed, the \"2022 Winter Olympics\" will be considered to be the major winter sporting event recognized by the [International Olympic Comittee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympic_Committee) held during the years 2022 to 2025, inclusive. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:22:49.921Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 151, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-03T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:28.159Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 294, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Iceland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Lebanon in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Iceland is Katrín Jakobsdóttir, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Iceland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 76 years", + "description": "The current leader of Lebanon is Saad Hariri, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Lebanon has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 16 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0015148", + "probability": "0.0098386", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9984852, + "probability": 0.9901614, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Iceland", + "country_name": "Lebanon", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Katrín Jakobsdóttir", - "month_risk": "0.0001139", - "annual_risk": "0.0015148", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "76", - "leader_years": "3.333333", - "country_code": "ISL", - "country_abb": "ICE" + "leader_name": "Saad Hariri", + "month_risk": "0.0007765", + "annual_risk": "0.0098386", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", + "regime_years": "16", + "leader_years": "0.4166667", + "country_code": "LBN", + "country_abb": "LEB" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's July meeting? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-008", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's July 27, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their July 27, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 95, - "yes_ask": 97, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 2450 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", + "title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532/china-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:51:05.965Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 113, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:01.652Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 167, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Vanuatu in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Vanuatu is Loughman, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Vanuatu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 41 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0048396", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9951604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Vanuatu", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Loughman", - "month_risk": "0.0003818", - "annual_risk": "0.0048396", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "41", - "leader_years": "0.9166667", - "country_code": "VUT", - "country_abb": "VAN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_%28in_thousands%29).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:56:43.915Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 89, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2166-what-will-be-the-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-greater-toronto-area-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([RENX.ca](https://renx.ca/q4-2020-office-report-major-city-snapshots-colliers/), [Canadian Real Estate](https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/this-western-citys-office-vacancy-is-26-334413.aspx), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/office-vacancies-in-canada-reach-highest-level-since-1994), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/09/23/canadian-office-vacancy-rate-hits-highest-level-since-1994-in-third-quarter.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome  determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 ([Colliers Canada](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% ([Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/greater-toronto-area-office-market-report-q4-2019), [Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/toronto-office-market-report-2021-q3)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 5.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 11.0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:12.610Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:09.465Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, - "numforecasters": 26, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive, Higher than 11.0%" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 600,000 on February 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-600000-on-february-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 600,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.", "options": [ { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6699029126213591, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0006420755037056762465011232364603236", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.3300970873786408, + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9993579244962943237534988767635397", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:22.263Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "171", + "liquidity": "50.00", + "tradevolume": "13815.09", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected president of South Korea in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7582/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-South-Korea-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in South Korea.\nIf no such presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yoon Suk-yeol", + "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lee Jae-myung", + "probability": 0.3529411764705882, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sim Sang-jung", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ahn Cheol-soo", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:39.874Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 10021 + "shares_volume": 37913 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yoon Suk-yeol, Lee Jae-myung, Sim Sang-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo" }, { - "title": "At least one person in the NYT collectively makes at least 20 falsifiable predictions (with odds) by 3 Feb 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A98", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Dominica in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Dominica is Roosevelt Skerrit, who has been in power for 17.2 years. Dominica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0048167", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9951833, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Dominica", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Roosevelt Skerrit", - "month_risk": "0.0003992", - "annual_risk": "0.0048167", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "42", - "leader_years": "17.16667", - "country_code": "DMA", - "country_abb": "DMA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Mali in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Mali is Ba N'Daou, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Mali has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 1 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1240819", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8759181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Mali", - "regime_type": "Military Provisional", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ba N'Daou", - "month_risk": "0.0053785", - "annual_risk": "0.1240819", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.03", - "regime_years": "1", - "leader_years": "0.5", - "country_code": "MLI", - "country_abb": "MLI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", + "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:23:08.237Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 385, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:09:41.899Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 197, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-06-12T21:21:40Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Japan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Japan is Yoshihide Suga, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Japan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 70 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0012854", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9987146, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Japan", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Yoshihide Suga", - "month_risk": "0.0000953", - "annual_risk": "0.0012854", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "70", - "leader_years": "0.5", - "country_code": "JPN", - "country_abb": "JPN" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:34:53.637Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:09:07.816Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 79, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8636/war-between-russia-and-nato-countries/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Other questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/). This question focuses on the possibility of a war between Russia and any NATO country other than the US by 2035, without there also being a US-Russia war.\nWill there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if the following two criteria are met:\n1-- \nBy 2035, there is a conflict between Russia and one or more NATO countries other than the US in which those countries collectively suffer [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. \n2-- \nIt is not the case that there is a US-Russia war by 2035 (regardless of whether that's connected to, before, or after the war mentioned in the first criterion). In other words, the question \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" must resolve negatively for this question to resolve positively.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the US is in some way involved in the war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, as long as the US's involvement is insufficient to resolve \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" positively. For example, this question can resolve positively if there's a year before 2035 in which Russia and Germany each suffer 600 battle-related deaths as part of a conflict with each other and, as part of the same conflict, the US suffers \"only\" 100 battle-related deaths and inflicts \"only\" the same amount. \nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2035, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n--- \n[If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:05:10.960Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\nA lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown—more than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?\nWill there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?\nLockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n--- \nAt least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n--- \nDuring at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n--- \nThe Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.\nDisputes related to question wording will be determined using admin discretion. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:19:29.749Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:41:44.942Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 194, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in UK in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of UK is Johnson, who has been in power for 1.7 years. UK has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 109 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0019177", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9980823, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "UK", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Johnson", - "month_risk": "0.000161", - "annual_risk": "0.0019177", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "109", - "leader_years": "1.666667", - "country_code": "GBR", - "country_abb": "UKG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).\nWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war between 2020-01-01 and 2050-01-01. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n[2021-11-23]: Edited to clarify the definition of \"deliberate\" detonations.\n[Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:\nIn an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\nIn an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:09:13.466Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 163, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8899/hungary-eu-exit-referendum-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Hungary [joined the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Hungarian_European_Union_membership_referendum) with 9 other eastern European nations after a 2003 referendum which saw 83.8% of voters in favor of joining the EU. Since then, Hungary has recieved [criticism from EU leaders](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/europe/hungary-eu-lgbt-mark-rutte-intl/index.html) for a June 2021 bill which banned LGBT content in Hungarian schools. CNN journalist Luke McGee noted that Article 7, a mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, would be \"very unlikely\" to occur, as it requires the unanimous vote of all other member nations.\nFinance Minister Mihály Varga [said in April 2021](https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-leave-the-eu-with-the-start-of-the-next-decade/) that he would vote to remain in the EU if a hypothetical referendum were held, but added\nthere is a chance for a new perspective on the issue. Especially if the attacks coming from Brussels become permanent because of our choices of values.\nPrime Minister Viktor Orban downplayed the suggestion of leaving the EU, [saying in November 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-will-not-leave-eu-wants-reform-it-pm-orban-says-2021-11-14/),\nWe don't want to leave the EU at all, they can't get rid of us so easily [...] We want to keep our sovereignty and we don't want to find ourselves in a united states of Europe.\nWill Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2023, the government of Hungary announces a date to hold a national referendum on a proposal to leave the EU. The date of the referendum may occur at any time, but the announcement must occur before 2023. The referendum need not be legally binding, only be open to Hungarian voters with a proposal whose primary purpose is to leave the EU.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:18:00.931Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 170, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_%281%29_%28%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh%29_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:25.839Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 168, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Switzerland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Switzerland is Parmelin, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Switzerland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 172 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0005565", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9994435, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Switzerland", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Parmelin", - "month_risk": "0.0000463", - "annual_risk": "0.0005565", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.04", - "regime_years": "172", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "CHE", - "country_abb": "SWZ" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:20:35.649Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 247, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:16:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):\n\"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.\n[In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\nOne unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: \"With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\"\nThis question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:15:09.176Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 139, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:55:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Ken Paxton", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George P. Bush", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eva Guzman", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Louie Gohmert", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Krause", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:52.618Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 105275 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Eva Guzman, Louie Gohmert, Matt Krause" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Beto O'Rourke", - "probability": 0.9607843137254901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joaquin Castro", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Julián Castro", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matthew McConaughey", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Wendy Davis", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:59.327Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 394945 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Beto O'Rourke, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Matthew McConaughey, Wendy Davis" - }, - { - "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378/total-nuclear-weapon-yield-worlwide-by-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.\nWill the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?\nResolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n--- \nask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n--- \nmake an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which stockpiles include a total of more than 20,000 warheads and their mean yield is 500kt. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:52:02.419Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:42:01.085Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 500, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donda by Kanye West win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-10", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Donda by Kanye West has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50659,134 +49849,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:12.362Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 8010 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:32:17.824Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "the US dollar will still be an internationally traded currency on 18 Mar 2032", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A137", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "Actually much more than 99%", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.010000000000000009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-03-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/", + "title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:45:50.447Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 256, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8944/boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-june-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nAs of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to [reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-joined-no-10-party-during-may-2020-lockdown-say-sources). His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party.\nWill Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:20:28.064Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 800, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.\nWill Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50799,334 +49879,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:29:41.211Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:48.795Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 271, + "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some \"other risk\" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9051/other-risk-to-cause-near-extinction/", + "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) that is caused by \"other\" causes does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global catastrophe caused by \"other risks\" occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:25:39.056Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-29T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.\nWill someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](http://rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:20:50.147Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n[Odessa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa) or Odesa, the 3rd largest city in Ukraine, is a strategically-important city on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, whose port receives [over 70%](https://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/ukraine-ports-eye-larger-share-asia-cargo_20190213.html) of Ukraine's containerized cargo and whose naval base houses the bulk of the Ukrainian Navy. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Odessa\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Odessa for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:45:59.353Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-7", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 8242 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:47.043Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 196, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Prince Henry of Wales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Harry,_Duke_of_Sussex) and [Rachel Meghan Markle](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghan,_Duchess_of_Sussex) are members of the [British royal family](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_royal_family) and the current [Duke and Duchess of Sussex](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Sussex). They were married in 2018.\nWill the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?\nThis question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:53:42.055Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 178, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2144-what-will-be-the-average-air-quality-index-in-dubai-in-march-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow ([AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/about-airnow/)). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose \"Dubai\" under \"Select a City,\" and click on the \"Historical\" tab. Click on the file for \"2022 PM2.5 YTD,\" when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled \"AQI\" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a \"3\" under \"Month\" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 85.00", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 95.00 but less than 105.00", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 115.00", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:48.271Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, - "numforecasters": 33, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 85.00, Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive, More than 95.00 but less than 105.00, Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive, More than 115.00" - }, - { - "title": "Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? ", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, [a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37430824) as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.\nFollowing the attack, [Russia ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN11R238?il=0)and the [United States](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/syria-ceasefire-is-over-says-countrys-military) blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The [UN](http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/syria-unsarc-convoy-hit-urum-al-kubra-northwest-aleppo-city) and [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/20/syria-investigate-attack-un-aid-convoy) both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the [collapse](http://time.com/4500719/syria-ceasefire-aid-convoy-aleppo/) of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.", - "probability": 0.416998344156324, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.", - "probability": 0.3996231698874853, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.", - "probability": 0.12766875086273002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.", - "probability": 0.051659883539936315, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The US Air Force carried out the attack.", - "probability": 0.0040498515535244296, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack., The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly., The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack., Opposition ground forces carried out the attack., The US Air Force carried out the attack." - }, - { - "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:18:04.182Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 146, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5769230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4230769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:09.791Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 137048 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A186", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", + "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)\nThis resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -51139,17 +49909,308 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:00.159Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 147, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-11-04T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:57.740Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 60, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by April 1st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-april-1st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to April 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6770960833750225120021776879319378", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3229039166249774879978223120680622", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "27", + "liquidity": "1000.00", + "tradevolume": "6278.36", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "The number of autism cases has increased significantly in the past few decades, from approximately [1 in 2,500 children](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf) in 1966 to [1 in 68](http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html) in 2016. The increase in the number of autism cases is attributed in part to [improved screening and broadening of the diagnostic criteria](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf).\nThe alleged association between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism began in 1998, when Andrew Wakefield and several coauthors published a research paper in The Lancet, a leading British medical journal, suggesting a link between them. Wakefield's findings caused great concern among parents in the UK and the US and[ led to a significant drop in vaccinations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH1obrIZ54k&feature=youtu.be&t=350) of children. Numerous subsequent studies have failed to support an association between the administration of the vaccine and autism spectrum disorder. Beginning in 2004, British investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote several articles accusing Wakefield of concealing conflicts of interest, manipulating evidence, and other unethical research practices. In 2010 The Lancet [retracted Wakefield's study](http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2960175-4/abstract) after several elements in the study were found to be "incorrect, contrary to the findings of an earlier investigation."\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism.", + "probability": 0.9989448582556197, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. ", + "probability": 0.00092438670468488, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet.", + "probability": 0.00013075503969541352, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism., The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. , The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet." + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:47.548Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 340, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_%28United_States_Congress%29), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:18.723Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 153, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the leaders of the Liberal and Labor parties at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.186926134", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible combinations may be added on request.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "S Morrison / A Albanese", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.261Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "volume": 1062.62 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "S Morrison / A Albanese" + }, + { + "title": ">=48 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A168", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Benin in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Benin is Talon, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Benin has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0154884", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9845116, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Benin", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Talon", + "month_risk": "0.0009287", + "annual_risk": "0.0154884", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "4.916667", + "country_code": "BEN", + "country_abb": "BEN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)\nWill there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?\nPositive resolution if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before 2023-01-01 in relevant timezones.\nAccording to ENTSO-E, [Regional Group](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/system-operations/) for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).\nAppropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE [https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/](https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/). To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.\nI did not find any standard definition for massive blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.\nFor example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.\nIf there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries. \n", + "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:56.316Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 87, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2208-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-south-korea", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-05/south-koreas-ex-top-prosecutor-to-challenge-moons-party-in-2022-presidential-election), [Korea Herald](http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211128000026)). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-26/south-korea-s-moon-and-ex-rival-mend-fences-ahead-of-election)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic Party of Korea", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "People Power Party", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another candidate", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:04.337Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 135, + "numforecasters": 46, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party of Korea, People Power Party, Another candidate" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\nIn defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question resolves negatively if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to a resolution council or Metaculus admins.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -51162,344 +50223,490 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:51:44.079Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:48.211Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-15T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5762928206297702, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.41197792549152984, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liberal Democrat", - "probability": 0.011729253878700026, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 173248.97 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat" - }, - { - "title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8726/flu-season-in-next-decade-worse-than-2009-10/", + "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWill any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?\nThis will resolve positively if the weekly peak percent ILI exceeds 14.0% at any point before 2032 according to the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/).\n", + "description": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.\nWill Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:10:15.804Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will be the prime minister of Hungary on July 1?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7643/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Hungary-on-July-1", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of Hungary at the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.7307692307692307, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Péter Márki-Zay", - "probability": 0.25961538461538464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "László Toroczkai", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:02:49.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 12351 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Viktor Orbán, Péter Márki-Zay, László Toroczkai" - }, - { - "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:10:12.301Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:24.967Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/inflation-above-3-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nWill the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?\nThis resolves according to data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:34:18.405Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 128, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which NHL team will win the 2022 Stanley Cup Final?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2178-which-nhl-team-will-win-the-2022-stanley-cup-final", + "title": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2179-which-team-will-win-the-2022-nba-finals", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 30 June 2022 ([Sportsnaut](https://sportsnaut.com/2021-2022-nhl-season-important-dates/), [NHL](https://www.nhl.com/standings/2021/division)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 ([Sporting News](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-key-dates-training-camp-regular-season-all-star/7i6te7w31znt1jd41xj6rtleg), [NBA](https://www.nba.com/standings)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Boston Bruins", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carolina Hurricanes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Colorado Avalanche", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Edmonton Oilers", + "name": "Atlanta Hawks", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Florida Panthers", + "name": "Brooklyn Nets", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Minnesota Wild", - "probability": 0.05, + "name": "Dallas Mavericks", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "New York Rangers", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Denver Nuggets", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "St. Louis Blues", - "probability": 0.02, + "name": "Golden State Warriors", + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", - "probability": 0.11, + "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", - "probability": 0.07, + "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Vegas Golden Knights", - "probability": 0.1, + "name": "Miami Heat", + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Washington Capitals", - "probability": 0.03, + "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Philadelphia 76ers", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Phoenix Suns", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Utah Jazz", + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:50.780Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:53.040Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, - "numforecasters": 25, + "numforecasts": 251, + "numforecasters": 56, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals, Another team" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, Another team" }, { - "title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n", + "title": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for July 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2168-how-many-job-openings-in-the-us-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-july-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the third consecutive month in August 2021 ([FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retailers-forecast-disappointing-holiday-season-labor-shortage), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-459c0884721a213985cdf0185a1176f8)). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for July 2022, expected in September 2022 ([BLS - JOLTS](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm)). For July 2021, the number of job openings for \"Total US\" was 11,098 (in thousands) ([JOLTS - August 2021](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_10122021.pdf), see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Fewer than 6 million", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 11 million", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:13.984Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 206, + "numforecasters": 110, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6 million, Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive, More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million, Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive, More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million, Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive, More than 11 million" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "David McCormick", + "probability": 0.5438596491228069, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mehmet Oz", + "probability": 0.21052631578947364, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeff Bartos", + "probability": 0.07894736842105261, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carla Sands", + "probability": 0.06140350877192982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kathy Barnette", + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Keith Rothfus", + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Everett Stern", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ryan Costello", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Dent", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sean Parnell", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Bochetto", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sean Gale", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:30.650Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 571796 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "David McCormick, Mehmet Oz, Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands, Kathy Barnette, Keith Rothfus, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Charlie Dent, Sean Parnell, George Bochetto, Sean Gale" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2253-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-afghanistan-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/15/famine-new-battleground-for-displaced-afghans-a-photo-essay), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/famine-looms-afghanistan-leaving-millions-hungry-rcna10400), [IPC](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:07:16.347Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:32.067Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 229, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z" - }, + "numforecasts": 74, + "numforecasters": 56, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Liberia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Liberia is Weah, who has been in power for 3.2 years. Liberia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 15 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0193034", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9806966, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Liberia", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Weah", - "month_risk": "0.0012974", - "annual_risk": "0.0193034", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "15", - "leader_years": "3.166667", - "country_code": "LBR", - "country_abb": "LBR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/", + "title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n", + "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:02:18.672Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:14.602Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 653, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "Although Osama Bin Laden became the world's[ most wanted man](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/02osama-bin-laden-obituary.html) after September 11, 2001, with a[ 25 million dollar bounty](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/osama-bin-ladens-death-25-million-reward-remain-secret/story?id=13526284) on his head, it took almost a decade before he was finally located and killed. On May 2, 2011, two dozen US Navy Seals landed outside of a large compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, shooting and killing Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden's body was later dropped in the sea.\nThe raid on the compound, the killing of Bin Laden, and the revelation that he had apparently been hiding out in Pakistan for years, caught the world by surprise. A number of questions were raised, including whether the government of Pakistan, or its military intelligence, had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in the country, and whether the US had informed Pakistan of the impending raid.\nNote: this analysis assumes that the US account of the capture is accurate. Some have doubted the veracity and accuracy of this account, a controversy that may be analyzed by Rootclaim in the future.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.", + "probability": 0.8191041703878119, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.", + "probability": 0.09563276276017901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. ", + "probability": 0.08526306685200913, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. " + }, + { + "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:23.832Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 283, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In France, which right-wing politicians will compete in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": "There can be multiple correct answers. The shares of each correct answer will be worth 100ℍ / N (rounded to nearest integer), where N is the nicer of correct answers. The shares of the wrongs answers will be worthless (0ℍ). \"Compete\" means that the politician's name is on the ballot on election day. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Xavier Bertrand", + "probability": 0.34615384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valérie Pécresse", + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bruno Retailleau", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "François Baroin", + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Édouard Philippe", + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michel Barnier", + "probability": 0.5673076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "None of the above", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Bruno Retailleau, Laurent Wauquiez, François Baroin, Édouard Philippe, Michel Barnier, None of the above" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:57.498Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 155, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU by 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/major-state-exits-eu-by-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU by 2027? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:27.994Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1100, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Which EU country will be the next to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, not including the UK?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130946043", @@ -51647,849 +50854,186 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.256Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, - "volume": 19456.15 + "volume": 19493.11 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "No Country Before 2023, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Greece, France, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Finland, Spain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia" }, { - "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/", + "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOM February 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A260", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:54:57.347Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:19.683Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.6% in January 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-017", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.6% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 23, - "yes_ask": 25, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 3010 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden be impeached by June 30, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7485/Will-Joe-Biden-be-impeached-by-June-30,-2023", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives, by simple majority, votes to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Joe Biden prior to either the End Date listed below or the end of President Biden's Presidency, whichever occurs first. \nNeither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2023 11:59 AM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:58:59.889Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 31853 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7798/tom-tugendhat-top-tory-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\nWill Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Tom Tugendhat holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:26:40.441Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 a deliberate detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:12:16.449Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 62, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:51:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:51:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Additional candidates may be added to this market on request. Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.22625862716147793, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.1590880972229142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.08484698518555422, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.11570043434393759, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.03636299365095181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.037709771193579655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.03510909731816037, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.031817619444582834, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.021211746296388556, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.013575517629688678, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.011978397908548833, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dwayne Johnson", - "probability": 0.011312931358073899, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.012727047777833136, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.005090819111133254, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.009256034747515006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.004628017373757503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.005090819111133254, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.015664058803486935, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.010181638222266509, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Candace Owens", - "probability": 0.002545409555566627, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tulsi Gabbard", - "probability": 0.009256034747515006, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Cheney", - "probability": 0.002077885351482961, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Bloomberg", - "probability": 0.004628017373757503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Garcetti", - "probability": 0.004072655288906603, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Gaetz", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michelle Obama", - "probability": 0.018512069495030013, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.0013575517629688676, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Meghan Markle", - "probability": 0.0011312931358073899, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Carson", - "probability": 0.004426799227072395, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Crenshaw", - "probability": 0.004072655288906603, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cory Booker", - "probability": 0.0024241995767301213, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Paul Ryan", - "probability": 0.0022625862716147797, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.003916014700871734, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Oprah Winfrey", - "probability": 0.0012888149648438618, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Kerry", - "probability": 0.003510909731816037, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.0030853449158383356, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sherrod Brown", - "probability": 0.0020363276444533016, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Condoleezza Rice", - "probability": 0.0012120997883650606, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.0028282328395184747, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gavin Newsom", - "probability": 0.004628017373757503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Julian Castro", - "probability": 0.0011312931358073899, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.005090819111133254, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Christie", - "probability": 0.0024833263956747583, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rand Paul", - "probability": 0.005090819111133254, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Kasich", - "probability": 0.0012569923731193219, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Holder", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Swalwell", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Caitlyn Jenner", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Christopher Sununu", - "probability": 0.0010717513918175271, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Al Gore", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Beto O'Rourke", - "probability": 0.0030853449158383356, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rashida Tlaib", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeb Bush", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deval Patrick", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Greg Abbott", - "probability": 0.002545409555566627, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ayanna Pressley", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Inslee", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitch McConnell", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lindsey Graham", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jo Jorgensen", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Karen Bass", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Collins", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Tester", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Manchin", - "probability": 0.001475599742357465, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.0015664058803486936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.004242349259277712, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amy Klobuchar", - "probability": 0.007272598730190363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Rice", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.0027517941141260833, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Winsome Sears", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kevin McCarthy", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitch Landrieu", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Polis", - "probability": 0.0010181638222266508, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Cuban", - "probability": 0.0011312931358073899, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.0033938794074221696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 768393.13 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Pete Buttigieg, Mike Pompeo, Elizabeth Warren, Tucker Carlson, Kristi Noem, Dwayne Johnson, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nina Turner, Donald Trump Jr., Hillary Clinton, Ivanka Trump, Candace Owens, Tulsi Gabbard, Liz Cheney, Michael Bloomberg, Eric Garcetti, Matt Gaetz, Michelle Obama, Mitt Romney, Meghan Markle, Ben Carson, Dan Crenshaw, Cory Booker, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Oprah Winfrey, John Kerry, Rick Scott, Sherrod Brown, Condoleezza Rice, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Eric Holder, Eric Swalwell, Caitlyn Jenner, Christopher Sununu, Al Gore, Beto O'Rourke, Rob Portman, Rashida Tlaib, Jeb Bush, Deval Patrick, Greg Abbott, Ayanna Pressley, Jay Inslee, Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Jo Jorgensen, Karen Bass, Susan Collins, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, Ron Johnson, Glenn Youngkin, Amy Klobuchar, Susan Rice, Eric Adams, Tim Ryan, Herschel Walker, John Fetterman, Josh Mandel, Winsome Sears, Kevin McCarthy, Mitch Landrieu, Jared Polis, Mark Cuban, Tim Scott" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Poland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Poland is Duda, who has been in power for 5.6 years. Poland has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0030799", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9969201, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Poland", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Duda", - "month_risk": "0.0002473", - "annual_risk": "0.0030799", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "32", - "leader_years": "5.583333", - "country_code": "POL", - "country_abb": "POL" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8074/existence-of-macrofauna-on-an-icy-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. It would be possible that such a mission could be equipped to not only detect microbial life but also any existing macrofauna.\nIf we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?\nThe question resolves positively if at least two national space agencies publicly state they believe the existence of macrofauna native to the ocean of an icy moon has been confirmed. Confirmed life may be currently alive, or dead (such that we find fossilized remains). Discoveries of life and macrofauna need not occur at the same time, nor in the same place.\nIf we do not discover any evidence of life on an icy moon by 2200, this question will resolve ambiguously. If we discover life on an icy moon but do not find macrofauna, this question resolves negative. If we discover life somewhere else (for example, on Mars) but find no life on an icy moon, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor the purpose of this question, \"macrofauna\" is defined as any multicellular organism larger than the approximate minimum resolution of the naked eye (0.1 mm). In other words, any multicellular organism that would be retained on a 0.1 mm mesh.\nAn \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:37:59.872Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T11:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.6%?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt6", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.6%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.880084731559967459420977320248106", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.119915268440032540579022679751894", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "23", - "liquidity": "881.33", - "tradevolume": "1326.29", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **net neutrality** be reimposed by June 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NETNEU-001", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "There are two possible ways for the Contract to resolve to Yes. Either is sufficient.\n\nOption One: If a bill, rule, ruling or order reclassifies Broadband Internet access service as a common carrier, telecommunications service, or public utility under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, then the Contract resolves to Yes.\n\nOption Two: If a bill, rule, ruling or order contains a no blocking rule, a no throttling rule, and a no paid prioritization rule, then the Contract resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease see NETNEU in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. NETNEU in the Rulebook also contains far more details about these two options, as well as extensive examples from past bills and rules that may assist the member in understanding how the market is determined.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Congressional bills that have become law between Listing and June 01, 2022 (inclusive) according to Congress.gov, and rules, rulings and orders from the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) issued between Listing and June 01, 2022 (inclusive) according to the Federal Register. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 6, - "yes_ask": 8, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 3580 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2133-will-single-use-plastic-bags-be-banned-in-all-of-the-uae-before-8-january-2023", + "title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-1-october-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags ([Gulf Business](https://gulfbusiness.com/how-data-is-quantifying-the-impact-of-plastic-on-the-environment/), [Arabian Business](https://www.arabianbusiness.com/culture-society/442488-abu-dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/next/2020/01/24/dubai-acts-to-stem-the-tide-of-single-use-plastic)). A ban imposed either by the UAE government or all seven individual emirate governments would count. The ban must take effect during the question's open period to count. A ban with limited exceptions (e.g., medical uses) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation), [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230)). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/10/algorithms-shouldnt-be-protected-by-section-230-facebook-whistleblower-tells-senate/), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/legislative-efforts-and-policy-frameworks-within-the-section-230-debate/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:01.019Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:26.852Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 138, - "numforecasters": 58, + "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasters": 125, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be more than 215 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-215-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 215,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7250395048125407858178115578133207", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2749604951874592141821884421866793", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "100", - "liquidity": "12529.38", - "tradevolume": "14987.83", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/", + "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \nA 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.\nWill there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?\nThis resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.\nIf OWID revises their 2018 estimate at any point, or an alternative source is to be used, that source's most up-to-date 2018 value should be used where possible to ensure an appropriate comparison. \n", + "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:08:53.034Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:23.635Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasts": 372, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/", + "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", + "description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_%28tennis%29) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:12.199Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:58.932Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1336, + "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8049/n-s-existence--smoothness-and-compactness/", + "title": "Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if any one of them is proven.\nImportantly for this question, the statements A and C are about the Navier-Stokes equations defined on the noncompact space , while B and D are about the equations defined on the compact torus .\nWill the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?\nThis question resolves positively if before the resolution date of the question there are proofs of either both A and D or both B and C. It resolves negatively if there are proofs of either both A and B or both C and D. If neither event takes place before the resolution date of the question, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 1,000. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:37:17.863Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:41.363Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 20, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", + "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", + "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -52502,352 +51046,14 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:51:38.783Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:01.918Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.\n\nThis market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": "0.2650002484873803923206660944857367", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": "0.7349997515126196076793339055142633", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "77", - "liquidity": "2433.63", - "tradevolume": "2111.27", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8504/us-sign-killer-robot-ban-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban.\nWill the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Government formally agrees to an international treaty which purports to ban either the possession or the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons as defined above, and is announced on the [U.S. Department of State Office of Treaty Affairs](https://www.state.gov/treaties-in-force/) or a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP or New York Times).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:56:09.652Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish win at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-5", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 21080 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:17:29.523Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 106, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:43:36.751Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 242, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8534/north-korean-icbm-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\"\nSee also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests).\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)\nNote that:\n--- \nThe missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice\n--- \nEither a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution\n--- \nFor positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead\nSee also:\n*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:18.017Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7987/commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated.\nOne approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))\n[Commercial paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_paper) is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate.\nIn 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?\nThis question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core [CPI inflation](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E) is above 3%.\nThis resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the [3-month prime commercial paper interest rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPNA2P2D90NB).\nThis resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:34:45.075Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:39:39.919Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1052, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2190-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-shiba-inu-on-31-august-2022-according-to-coinmarketcap", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using the \"Close\" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data for SHIBA INU\" the morning of 1 September 2022 ([CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/shiba-inu/historical-data/)). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $15 billion", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$55 billion or more", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:20.948Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 139, - "numforecasters": 38, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $15 billion, Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive, More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion, Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive, More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion, $55 billion or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8142/fy21-ndaa-study-publicly-available-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 [states](https://www.nationalacademies.org/ocga/public-laws/william-m-mac-thornberry-national-defense-authorization-act-for-fiscal-year-2021):\n\"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war. \n[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).\n[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.\"\nThe bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that \"18 months after the enactment of this act\" would make this report due by 2022-07-01. \nAs [noted by the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-04/news-briefs/congress-mandates-studies-nuclear-war):\n\"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986.\"\nIt seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available.\nWill the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2023-01-01, the National Academies publicly releases a report that is framed as fulfilling the mandate from Section 3171 of the FY21 NDAA and is indeed substantially focused on possible environmental effects of nuclear war.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:59.487Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-17T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n[Kharkiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv) is a strategically-important city with its city limits located only about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border. [According to Al-Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/fears-of-russian-invasion-trouble-ukraines-silicon-valley), in the event of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv could be the first city to be attacked. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html) Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine Before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Kharkiv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kharkiv for any length of time without the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:45:17.963Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -52870,7 +51076,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:11:13.399Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:42.742Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { @@ -52884,104 +51090,302 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Zimbabwe in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Zimbabwe is Mnangagwa, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Zimbabwe has a party regime type which has lasted for 41 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0229224", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9770776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Zimbabwe", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mnangagwa", - "month_risk": "0.0007521", - "annual_risk": "0.0229224", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "41", - "leader_years": "3.333333", - "country_code": "ZWE", - "country_abb": "ZIM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8106/senolytics-for-pets-and-people/", + "title": "Does P = NP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/p--np-is-true/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps. Will this role apply to senolytics too?\nWill a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?\nSimilar to the linked question’s criterion, “an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells”. This function must be verified by a reputable third party, such as the FDA or major medical journals. An impact on lifespan need not be demonstrated for either the animal or the human therapy.\nIf a therapy for animals is sold before a human therapy is approved and sold, but the animal therapy is only verified by a third party afterwards, the question will still resolve positively. \n", + "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nDoes P = NP?\nIf no award is given by the Clay Institute (between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100) for a proof or disproof of P = NP, this question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:39:13.635Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:38.280Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 258, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Saweetie win Best New Artist at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-004-10", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Saweetie has won Best New Artist at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "title": "BTC hits >=$100K by EOY 2024", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A30", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2021-01-07T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by The Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. PLEASE NOTE Just after 20:00 (GMT) on 6 April 2020, mainstream media reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been moved to intensive care due to his ill health. Within an hour of this news coming to our attention, we suspended the following market on the Betfair Exchange. Given the exceptional circumstances, these markets will remain suspended and unavailable for trading until further notice. You will still be able to view details of your open bets in the ‘My Bets’ section of your account. Any unmatched bets on these markets (including keep bets) have been cancelled", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Rishi Sunak", + "probability": 0.3382006050732209, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Truss", + "probability": 0.11793662125630269, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeremy Hunt", + "probability": 0.087610061504682, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Tugendhat", + "probability": 0.0919905645799161, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Penny Mordaunt", + "probability": 0.07665880381659673, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Gove", + "probability": 0.0317208843379021, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sajid Javid", + "probability": 0.034070579474042996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dominic Raab", + "probability": 0.015331760763319349, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ben Wallace", + "probability": 0.038329401908298366, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Baker", + "probability": 0.020906946495435477, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nadhim Zahawi", + "probability": 0.024208043310504232, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Priti Patel", + "probability": 0.018398112915983218, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", + "probability": 0.009683217324201694, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Harper", + "probability": 0.004841608662100847, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kwasi Kwarteng", + "probability": 0.009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Johnny Mercer", + "probability": 0.004599528228995804, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kemi Badenoch", + "probability": 0.00613270430532774, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Oliver Dowden", + "probability": 0.004181389299087095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Therese Coffey", + "probability": 0.0043805030752341, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rory Stewart", + "probability": 0.0009891458556980225, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "James Cleverly", + "probability": 0.0043805030752341, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Grant Shapps", + "probability": 0.0032853773064255745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ruth Davidson", + "probability": 0.00306635215266387, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alok Sharma", + "probability": 0.0019164700954149186, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anne-Marie Trevelyan", + "probability": 0.005411209681171535, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brandon Lewis", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Hancock", + "probability": 0.0009386792304073072, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nadine Dorries", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amanda Milling", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Eustice", + "probability": 0.001149882057248951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrea Leadsom", + "probability": 0.0020906946495435476, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robert Buckland", + "probability": 0.00836277859817419, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Theresa May", + "probability": 0.002874705143122378, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Will Quince", + "probability": 0.0020442347684425798, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Robert Jenrick", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jesse Norman", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Suella Braverman", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ranil Jayawardena", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Simon Hart", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Natalie Evans", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alister Jack", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Amber Rudd", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gavin Williamson", + "probability": 0.0009291976220193544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Geoffrey Cox", + "probability": 0.0009199056457991609, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tobias Ellwood", + "probability": 0.013141509225702298, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.258Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 13622 + "volume": 142822.24 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Ben Wallace, Steve Baker, Nadhim Zahawi, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Mark Harper, Kwasi Kwarteng, Johnny Mercer, Kemi Badenoch, Oliver Dowden, Therese Coffey, Rory Stewart, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Ruth Davidson, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Brandon Lewis, Matt Hancock, Nadine Dorries, Amanda Milling, George Eustice, Andrea Leadsom, Robert Buckland, Theresa May, Will Quince, Robert Jenrick, Jesse Norman, Suella Braverman, Ranil Jayawardena, Simon Hart, Natalie Evans, Alister Jack, Amber Rudd, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood" }, { - "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", + "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-falls-below-10-before-2121/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\nTo some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\nCryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\nI think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.\nWill the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?\nThis question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -52994,820 +51398,24 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:28:47.744Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:26.483Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8947/google-uses-explainable-ads-by-2026/", + "title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% by 2051?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8572/riedl-bets-cole-about-higher-interest-rates/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.\nWill Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:20:38.471Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Syria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Syria is Bashar al-Assad, who has been in power for 20.8 years. Syria has a hybrid regime type which has lasted for 58 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.011449", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.988551, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Syria", - "regime_type": "HYBRID", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Bashar al-Assad", - "month_risk": "0.0006279", - "annual_risk": "0.011449", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "58", - "leader_years": "20.75", - "country_code": "SYR", - "country_abb": "SYR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7029702970297029, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.297029702970297, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:57.184Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 91442 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 10 billion worldwide?", - "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", - "platform": "Good Judgment", - "description": "With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times. Scroll to the section \"Vaccination doses administered...\" For location enter \"World,\" then click the boxes \"Raw numbers,\" \"Cumulative,\" and \"Total doses.\" The value and date will appear when hovering over the \"World\" line in the resulting graphic (ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=zzz&cumulative=1&doses=total&pop...).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 May 2022 and 30 June 2022", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 July 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-11-27T12:25:00.254Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4 - }, - "extra": { - "superforecastercommentary": "
    " - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022, Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022, Between 1 May 2022 and 30 June 2022, Not before 1 July 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nWill the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:20.395Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 410, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:05:45.268Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 279, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/catalonia-independence-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nBy 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:23.952Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 408, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Fight For You by H.E.R. win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-4", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Fight For You by H.E.R. has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 29156 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/usd-dominant-reserve-currency-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nWill the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:57:22.638Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 176, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Samoa in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Samoa is Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, who has been in power for 22.3 years. Samoa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0092242", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9907758, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Samoa", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi", - "month_risk": "0.0027592", - "annual_risk": "0.0092242", - "risk_change_percent": "0.23", - "regime_years": "59", - "leader_years": "22.25", - "country_code": "WSM", - "country_abb": "WSM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1197240498878592261745852423476543", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8802759501121407738254147576523457", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "229", - "liquidity": "2156.08", - "tradevolume": "20665.47", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will Lebanon next hold parliamentary elections?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2198-when-will-lebanon-next-hold-parliamentary-elections", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Lebanese parliamentary elections are due in the spring of 2022, though political and economic circumstances have raised fears that they may be postponed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/the-aftermath-of-the-pandemic-will-make-politics-more-turbulent), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/28/mps-walk-out-lebanon-parliament-votes-for-march-2022-poll), [The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2021/11/17/lebanese-diaspora-registering-online-for-elections-say-they-have-a-duty-to-vote/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 April 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 June 2022", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:14.188Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 268, - "numforecasters": 124, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Not before 1 June 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Will Rochelle Walensky remain CDC director through the end of the year?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7697/Will-Rochelle-Walensky-remain-CDC-director-through-the-end-of-the-year", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rochelle Walensky holds the office of Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:04:48.461Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 5438 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:18:38.862Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 495, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:16:41.725Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 992, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:22.475Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 106230 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/396-how-will-the-combined-annual-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-change-over-the-next-three-years", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about revenue over a six-month period—forecasting the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. ***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.*** \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-30T09:00:28.728Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 222, - "numforecasters": 86, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes" - }, - { - "title": "Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "There is a heated debate regarding the effectiveness of vitamin D in improving COVID-19 outcomes. While numerous studies show a correlation, many claim it is due to confounding factors. A few controlled trials showed a strong effect, but the most notable one, conducted in [Córdoba, Spain](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960076020302764), had significant flaws that prevented it from being widely accepted.\nMore studies are underway, and within a year or so we will likely get a more certain answer, but a probabilistic analysis of currently available information can reach a useful conclusion faster, potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives.\nAdditionally, the conclusion below is included in the [Rootclaim $100,000 challenge](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/).\nNote: this is a simplified analysis; the full version was published in September 2020 [on the Rootclaim blog](https://blog.rootclaim.com/vitamin-d-can-likely-end-the-covid-19-pandemic/). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.", - "probability": 0.02185526954832443, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.", - "probability": 0.14643030597377368, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.", - "probability": 0.05463817387081107, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.", - "probability": 0.48567265662943165, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.", - "probability": 0.2914035939776591, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.625Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20." - }, - { - "title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8613/non-state-actor-acquires-a-nuke-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group who is not in a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) has possession of a nuclear weapon that was originally developed by a state and is in deployable condition at the time the state acquires it (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This may occur (for example) by sales, theft, or a state inadvertently losing control of a weapon. This will not include cases where a non-state actor independently develops a weapon (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)). \nA non-state actor obtaining [highly-enriched uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Highly_enriched_uranium_%28HEU%29) or other weapons material is not sufficient to resolve this question positively. Additionally, [dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:03:26.654Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 21, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/first-award-for-spanish-sci-fi-by-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:10:44.582Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:53:58.758Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 84, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which threshold will Bitcoin hit first?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "This question starts on May 20, 2021, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of a bitcoin reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, according to Blockchain.com in this chart: [https://exchange.blockchain.com/trade/BTC-USD](https://exchange.blockchain.com/trade/BTC-USD) ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "USD 60,000", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "USD 20,000", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:43.149Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "USD 60,000, USD 20,000" - }, - { - "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_%28climate_engineering%29) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_%28climate_engineering%29). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:01:15.207Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:19:26.304Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 299, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "David McCormick", - "probability": 0.5178571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mehmet Oz", - "probability": 0.24107142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeff Bartos", - "probability": 0.07142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carla Sands", - "probability": 0.0625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kathy Barnette", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Everett Stern", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ryan Costello", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Charlie Dent", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sean Parnell", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Keith Rothfus", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George Bochetto", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sean Gale", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:41.498Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 570048 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "David McCormick, Mehmet Oz, Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands, Kathy Barnette, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Charlie Dent, Sean Parnell, Keith Rothfus, George Bochetto, Sean Gale" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](http://%28https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/%29) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform. \nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n", + "description": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\nI'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\nIn [The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051.\nWill Brian Riedl win his bet with Alan Cole regarding the interest rate paid on the federal debt?\nThis resolves positively if Brian Riedl wins the bet and negatively if Alan Cole wins. In the event the bet is not resolved in a timely manner upon apparent satisfaction of the bet terms or a situation appears ambiguous under the terms of the bet, the resolution criteria in the fine print will be used for resolution.\nUnder the relevant conditions described in the resolution criteria above, this resolves positively if the actual average interest rate on federal debt as reported by the CBO exceeds 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051. If the method of calculation of the average interest rate on federal debt is substantially revised prior to resolution this resolves ambiguously. The resolution date for this question is December 31, 2052, any CBO publication prior to that date showing the actual average interest rate on federal debt exceeded 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051 will resolve this question positively. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -53820,875 +51428,54 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:01.119Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:37.838Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:38:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:38:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/", + "title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", + "description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API.\nIf a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?\nTo resolve positively:\n--- \nThe model paper should be published on arXiv or on the ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML (top machine learning conferences) websites before the end of 2022.\n--- \nIt should at least be an API or graphical user interface with a language model option where you could send a text prompt and it returns text. If for instance there is a new Deep Learning model that uses 5x more compute than GPT-3 but does not provide any way to produce text from text, that does not count.\n--- \nYou should be able to get one API call/send one prompt by paying less than $1k from a publicly accessible source on the clear web that you can find using one google search. This rule is to force the accessibility to end-user.\n------ \nThe $1k limit insists on it being business-to-consumer and not business-to-business.\n------ \nThe public url from one google search dismisses any leak of the model where you would need to do extra steps yourself or have private information of a token/password protected url (cf. [DeepNude](https://www.theregister.com/2019/06/27/deepfake_nudes_app_pulled/) where you needed to do some hacking to get access to the model after the author removed it publicly)\nIf a model meets the first two resolution criteria by 2022, but the third criterion (about public access) is not met, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:45:12.748Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:42.783Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-05-30T20:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-06T21:27:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritius in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Mauritius is Pravind Jugnauth, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Mauritius has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 53 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0085873", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9914127, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Mauritius", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Pravind Jugnauth", - "month_risk": "0.0005257", - "annual_risk": "0.0085873", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "53", - "leader_years": "4.166667", - "country_code": "MUS", - "country_abb": "MAS" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/", + "title": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8539/nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai-globally/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group working for a government project.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:24.445Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2170-what-will-be-the-closing-price-for-aluminum-per-metric-ton-mt-on-29-april-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides ([Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aluminum-makers-sound-alarm-u-223623072.html), [Capital.com](https://capital.com/aluminium-rebounds-as-china-power-worries-resurface)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LMAHDS03:COM), [London Metal Exchange](https://www.lme.com/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than $2,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "$3,200 or higher", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:04.493Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 334, - "numforecasters": 123, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than $2,000, Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive, Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600, Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive, Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200, $3,200 or higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:13:50.599Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:47:10.655Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 349, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8475/hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\nOK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\nI agree to this bet.\nWill Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:55:27.849Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lee Zeldin", - "probability": 0.8316831683168316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Giuliani", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rob Astorino", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Harry Wilson", - "probability": 0.0297029702970297, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Carpinelli", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George Pataki", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chris Gibson", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:48.970Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 53703 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lee Zeldin, Andrew Giuliani, Rob Astorino, Harry Wilson, Mike Carpinelli, John Catsimatidis, George Pataki, Chris Gibson" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Comoros in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Comoros is Assoumani, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Comoros has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 15 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0248824", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9751176, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Comoros", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Assoumani", - "month_risk": "0.004188", - "annual_risk": "0.0248824", - "risk_change_percent": "0.29", - "regime_years": "15", - "leader_years": "1.833333", - "country_code": "COM", - "country_abb": "COM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $6.5 billion in volume in January 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-6p5-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $6,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $6.5b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0007433735910027741781266060200570295", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.999256626408997225821873393979943", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "177", - "liquidity": "698.55", - "tradevolume": "25362.29", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will average **gas prices** be higher this week than last week?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GAS-035", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.321 on February 07, 2022, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see GAS in the Rulebook for more information.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data (which is generally scheduled for Monday evenings), or February 21, 2022. The market will always close at 4:59 PM ET on the day of the expected release of the data.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for February 07, 2022, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "yes_bid": 96, - "yes_ask": 97, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 2254 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.9207920792079208, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:55:30.777Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 50645 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:48:21.032Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 201, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8483/trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.\nIf the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?\nThis question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:55:38.323Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 241, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-12T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-december-31-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2556898621704412336889538171054431", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7443101378295587663110461828945569", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "56", - "liquidity": "819.34", - "tradevolume": "3043.87", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:32:55.354Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 172, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "Although Osama Bin Laden became the world's[ most wanted man](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/02osama-bin-laden-obituary.html) after September 11, 2001, with a[ 25 million dollar bounty](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/osama-bin-ladens-death-25-million-reward-remain-secret/story?id=13526284) on his head, it took almost a decade before he was finally located and killed. On May 2, 2011, two dozen US Navy Seals landed outside of a large compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, shooting and killing Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden's body was later dropped in the sea.\nThe raid on the compound, the killing of Bin Laden, and the revelation that he had apparently been hiding out in Pakistan for years, caught the world by surprise. A number of questions were raised, including whether the government of Pakistan, or its military intelligence, had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in the country, and whether the US had informed Pakistan of the impending raid.\nNote: this analysis assumes that the US account of the capture is accurate. Some have doubted the veracity and accuracy of this account, a controversy that may be analyzed by Rootclaim in the future.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.", - "probability": 0.8191041703878119, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.", - "probability": 0.09563276276017901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. ", - "probability": 0.08526306685200913, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.640Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. " - }, - { - "title": "What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2143-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-us-10-yr-treasury-on-30-december-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Lower than 0%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 0% and 1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 1% but lower than 2%", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 2% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Higher than 3% but lower than 4%", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "4% or higher", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:49.869Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 386, - "numforecasters": 136, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 0%, Between 0% and 1%, inclusive, Higher than 1% but lower than 2%, Between 2% and 3%, inclusive, Higher than 3% but lower than 4%, 4% or higher" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question.\nWill there be a US-Iran war by 2024?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-Iran war is defined as the US and Iran collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Iran or between Iran and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe will use [the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies' definition of battle-related deaths](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nRelated questions\n--- \n[What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7881/critical-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3462/will-there-be-a-us-iran-war-in-2020/)\n--- \n[US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3451/us-invades-and-attempts-a-regime-change-in-iran-in-2020/)\n--- \n[How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3453/how-many-cyberattacks-by-iran-against-us-govt-systems-in-q1-2020/)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:57.177Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 71, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Angola in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Angola is Lourenco, who has been in power for 3.5 years. Angola has a party regime type which has lasted for 45 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0114453", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9885547, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Angola", - "regime_type": "Party", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Lourenco", - "month_risk": "0.0022173", - "annual_risk": "0.0114453", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "45", - "leader_years": "3.5", - "country_code": "AGO", - "country_abb": "ANG" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/247/pandemic-series-a-major-naturally-originated-pandemic-by-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Other questions in [this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--pandemics) have asked separately about influenza and H5N1, and the emergence of new mosquito-borne, airborne, and blood-borne diseases. \nThose questions all concern disease that originate naturally, i.e. without any accidental or deliberate human modification and release (which is the subject of separate questions). Here we ask the general question: \nWill there be \"naturally spawned\" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025? \nInfection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source; if not entirely clear, we will assume \"naturally spawned\" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2026.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:07:09.836Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 384, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-01-01T13:20:20Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-18T11:36:44.592000Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:13:11.137Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 538, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will I Get A Kick Out Of You by Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-3", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If I Get A Kick Out Of You by Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 12958 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-in-mariupol-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\n[Mariupol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol) is a strategically-important city [close to the frontlines](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51543463) in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have [launched several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol#The_war_in_Donbass) on the city. \nWill Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively upon Russian troops having entered Mariupol, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Mariupol\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Mariupol for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Mariupol still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:44:09.364Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?", - "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513", - "platform": "Rootclaim", - "description": "[Hae Min Lee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Hae_Min_Lee) was a high school senior in Baltimore, Maryland, who disappeared on January 13, 1999. When her body was found a month later on February 9, an investigation ensued that relied heavily on information provided by Jay Wilds, a marijuana dealer who had graduated from Hae's high school. The police claimed to have focused on Hae's ex-boyfriend, Adnan Syed, following a tip from an anonymous caller and information provided by Jenn (a friend of Jay but not of Adnan). After Adnan’s conviction, the case was featured in the podcasts [Serial](http://serialpodcast.org/) and [Undisclosed](http://undisclosed-podcast.com/), and some of the new evidence and arguments led the court to [overturn Adnan's conviction and grant him a new trial](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jul/01/serial-adnan-syed-new-trial-hae-min-lee-murder). Followers of the case have made[ maps containing significant locations](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zERAsrjje-sU.kQFffQE6h2vk), [multiple](http://i.imgur.com/E11E8WM.jpg) possible [timelines](http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/pulse_embed/public/2014/11/05/serial_tl_1-6_770.png) have been suggested, and debates have ensued on forums such as [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III).", - "probability": 0.5377257381473797, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee.", - "probability": 0.3135449100891127, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).", - "probability": 0.08451102649131251, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee.", - "probability": 0.04682696694032147, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).", - "probability": 0.01393535852010411, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM).", - "probability": 0.0018381056042367754, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee.", - "probability": 0.0008436308886018265, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee.", - "probability": 0.0007742633189311423, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1, - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III)., Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM)., Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee., Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee." - }, - { - "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Jordan", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A83", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "Seems pretty unlikely now per reporting that Jim Jordan does not want to run", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will China ban export of rice, wheat, or maize by April 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8850/chinese-export-ban-of-rice-wheat-or-maize/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill China ban exports of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Chinese officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside China, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of Chinese Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that such a state has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the head of state; the head of the state's ministry of defense or equivalent; a similarly important and relevant officia; head of one of the state's military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the state's nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important diplomacy official from that state such as the state's ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -54701,91 +51488,144 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:15:13.032Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:32.947Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n", + "title": "Who will be elected governor of Arizona in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2223-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-arizona-in-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", + "name": "The Democratic Party candidate", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "The Republican Party candidate", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "name": "Someone else", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:01:41.631Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:36.422Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 158, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z" - }, + "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasters": 56, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Tanzania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Nepal in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Tanzania is Magufuli, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Tanzania has a party regime type which has lasted for 57 years", + "description": "The current leader of Nepal is Oli, who has been in power for 3.1 years. Nepal has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 15 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0065871", + "probability": "0.0185884", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9934129, + "probability": 0.9814116, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Tanzania", - "regime_type": "Party", + "country_name": "Nepal", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Magufuli", - "month_risk": "0.000292", - "annual_risk": "0.0065871", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "57", - "leader_years": "5.333333", - "country_code": "TZA", - "country_abb": "TAZ" + "leader_name": "Oli", + "month_risk": "0.0028251", + "annual_risk": "0.0185884", + "risk_change_percent": "0.23", + "regime_years": "15", + "leader_years": "3.083333", + "country_code": "NPL", + "country_abb": "NEP" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/", + "title": "Biden runs", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A250", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:41.493Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 131, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -54798,104 +51638,249 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:58:55.217Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:33.925Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 415, + "numforecasts": 228, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/", + "title": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025-01-20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8523/irs-designates-crypto-miners-brokers-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nFor example, OpenAI was initially founded as a non-profit organization \"so that they could focus its research on creating a positive long-term human impact.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Motives))\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a non-profit organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "description": "[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.\nThe bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.\nSurprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained.\nWill Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025-01-20?\nThe question will resolve positively if, by 2025-01-20, miners, cryptocurrency developers, node operators, or validators (under proof-of-stake blockchains) are required to issue tax reports (such as 1099s) to the parties of the transactions they mediate. This will resolve positively if this requirement is effective under US law (though compliance or enforcement of this law need not actually occur to resolve positively). This may resolve positively even if this provision is not part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but it is part of some future legislation signed before 2025-01-20.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:49:29.736Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:14.482Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 20, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-11-22T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by 2100-01-01, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Nicaragua in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Nicaragua is Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 14.2 years. Nicaragua has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 0 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": "0.017831", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.982169, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:49:52.957Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 191, + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Nicaragua", + "regime_type": "Party-Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Daniel Ortega", + "month_risk": "0.0007212", + "annual_risk": "0.017831", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.22", + "regime_years": "0", + "leader_years": "14.16667", + "country_code": "NIC", + "country_abb": "NIC" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.7524752475247525, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:16.821Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 782399 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "Will **income taxes** rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/ITAX-002", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If a bill becomes law in 2022 that raises income taxes on the highest income tax bracket, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nOther provisions that may affect the amount of personal income tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate--such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to individuals do not affect the resolution of the Contract. However, added or raised surtaxes on adjusted gross income or taxable income for incomes in the highest tax bracket would result in the market resulting in Yes. Raising income taxes (whether via a surtax or not) by creating a new tax bracket that is above the aforementioned threshold would also result in the market resolving to Yes. Changes in taxes on specific forms of personal income that are not taxable income or adjusted gross income--such as dividends, long-term capital gains, etc.--are not relevant for the market's resolution. \n\nThe above is merely a summary of the rules. Please see ITAX in the Rulebook for the complete, legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and understand the complete terms and conditions before trading.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, or 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, the release of the data (Congress.gov updating) for December 31, 2022, or January 07, 2023.\n\n\n. The resolution source is: All bills that became law between Issuance and December 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 38, + "yes_ask": 41, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 9062 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a **new Supreme Court justice** be confirmed in 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOTUS-001", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No. Please see SCOTUS in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.\n. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and December 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.93, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 92, + "yes_ask": 95, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 124074 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[New START] ([https://www.state.gov/new-start/](https://www.state.gov/new-start/)) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. We ask if the New START treaty will be renewed again for at least an additional year - that is, whether it will be extended until at least 5 February 2027.\nWill the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following conditions occur:\n1-- \nThere are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least 5 February 2027. \n2-- \nThere are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least 5 February 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.\nIt is not necessary that the renewed or replacement treaty has very similar terms. But note that the second condition would not be met if one or two of the three relevant groups (US officials, Russian officials, or other credible sources) do not describe the treaty as a successor to New START. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:43.522Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2061-04-11T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/", + "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\nSputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n[...]\nThe satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race).\nWill there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?\nThere is said to be an \"AI Sputnik moment\" if ANY of the following come true before 2050,\n--- \nA major technology company (>50 billion dollar market cap, in 2021 US dollars, right before the announcement) announces the creation of an AI system. Upon the announcement, their stock price skyrockets by over 100% compared to its previous value within 7 days, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock price is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nNews of an AI development triggers the head of government of the top 2 nations by GDP nominal to give a public speech regarding the ramifications of this particular AI development, within two weeks of the initial news reports.\n--- \nThe Nasdaq Composite (which is currently heavily weighted towards companies in the information technology sector) rises over 30% in the course of a single week, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock prices is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nThe [Google Trends monitor for artificial intelligence](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz) shows that interest in artificial intelligence rises by over 100% relative to of its previous value, compared to the week prior (using the resolution at 12 months, as currently displayed by the Google Trends widget). If Google Trends changes their functionality or methodology dramatically (as determined by Metaculus admins), then this condition can no longer trigger a positive resolution.\n--- \nPractically all reliable media outlets are referring to an AI development as an AI Sputnik moment, as referring to the historical Sputnik 1 satellite.\n", + "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:06:03.460Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:00.130Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 167, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:30.941Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 125, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -54923,18 +51908,655 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:50.448Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:34.025Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 58782 + "shares_volume": 58785 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic" }, { - "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/", + "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office the individual holds upon launch of this market on August 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Sebastián Piñera", + "probability": 0.8909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pedro Castillo", + "probability": 0.027272727272727268, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.01818181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Guillermo Lasso", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Iván Duque", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. M. López Obrador", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alberto Fernández", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Luis Arce", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Daniel Ortega", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nicolás Maduro", + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:22.433Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 74016 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sebastián Piñera, Pedro Castillo, Jair Bolsonaro, Guillermo Lasso, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7603/variant-of-high-consequence-before-aug-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n", + "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is [thought](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005395/23_July_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_Delta.pdf) to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n---Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are six VOIs: B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.3. \n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are four VOCs: B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma). \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant that has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are no VOHCs. \nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostics \n---Evidence to suggest a significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nWill the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page before 1 August 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:29.372Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 107, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:14.503Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 226, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Zapper airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zapper-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Zapper will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2901713486575985857055839425629477", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7098286513424014142944160574370523", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "68", + "liquidity": "500.00", + "tradevolume": "3500.81", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritania in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Mauritania is Ould Ghazouani, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Mauritania has a personal regime type which has lasted for 13 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.018414", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.981586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Mauritania", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ould Ghazouani", + "month_risk": "0.0008709", + "annual_risk": "0.018414", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "13", + "leader_years": "1.583333", + "country_code": "MRT", + "country_abb": "MAA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:41.282Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 353, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:38.010Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 111, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:58.967Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 576, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\nLogic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:29.790Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 174, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will either Sinema or Manchin leave the Democratic Party by March 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7554/Will-either-Sinema-or-Manchin-leave-the-Democratic-Party-by-March-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, either Senator Kyrsten Sinema or Senator Joe Manchin definitively and unconditionally withdraws from the Democratic Party. The participation or membership of both Senators in the Senate Democratic Caucus shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to No. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:51.075Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 214953 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/kamala-harris-wins-2024-us-presidency/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:42.558Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 548, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2125-before-1-september-2022-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/nile-dam-dispute-remains-stalled-egypt-sudan-run-out-options), [All Africa](https://allafrica.com/stories/202107210509.html)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-council-urges-egypt-ethiopia-sudan-restart-dam-talks-2021-09-15/), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14576.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:26.392Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasters": 50, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:15.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 150, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Grenada in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Grenada is Mitchell, who has been in power for 8.1 years. Grenada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 36 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0063924", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9936076, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Grenada", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Mitchell", + "month_risk": "0.0005496", + "annual_risk": "0.0063924", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "36", + "leader_years": "8.083333", + "country_code": "GRD", + "country_abb": "GRN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea have more volume in February ‘22 than it did in January ‘22?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-volume-in-february-22-than-it-did-in-january-22", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in February 2022 will exceed its Ethereum Volume it had in January 2022 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked daily at 12:00 PM ET, and finally on March 2, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. \n\nIf on any of the checks the OpenSea volume in February is greater than that of January, the market will resolve “Yes.” If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum in February is less than or equal to that of January on all of the checks, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the time of the last check, DappRadar will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.5151149984763465751041099469675015", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.4848850015236534248958900530324985", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "59", + "liquidity": "2418.94", + "tradevolume": "3638.96", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Ireland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Ireland is Martin, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Ireland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 99 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0006147", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9993853, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Ireland", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Martin", + "month_risk": "0.0000512", + "annual_risk": "0.0006147", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "99", + "leader_years": "0.75", + "country_code": "IRL", + "country_abb": "IRE" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Equatorial Guinea in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Equatorial Guinea is Nguema Mbasogo, who has been in power for 41.6 years. Equatorial Guinea has a personal regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0166975", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9833025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Equatorial Guinea", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Nguema Mbasogo", + "month_risk": "0.0006645", + "annual_risk": "0.0166975", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "41.58333", + "country_code": "GNQ", + "country_abb": "EQG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\nOn [elections scheduled for November 8, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections), US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.\nDemocratic President Joe Biden [said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/12/15/biden_to_republicans_get_ready_youre_in_for_a_problem_were_going_to_win_in_2022.html),\nI just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it. \nRepublican Senator Rick Scott [said to Fox Business on the same day](https://www.deseret.com/2021/11/19/22787494/republicans-chances-to-take-back-congress-in-2022-are-looking-good-utah-redistricting-gop),\nWe’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”\nGeneric congressional ballot data shows [Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/) lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden currently has an [-8 percentage point net approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/).\nFiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported [a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-flurry-of-democratic-departures-means-for-the-2022-house-race/), arguing this is a signal of good prospects of a Republican victory.\nWill Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?\nThis question will resolve positively if, following the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), over 50% of House and Senate congresspeople are members of the Republican party. If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, or both, this question will resolve negatively.\nIndependents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:19:16.130Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 116, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7590/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:52.424Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 18497 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://%28https://fragilestatesindex.org%29)?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:21.201Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 77, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a university.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -54947,101 +52569,564 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:05:40.045Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:15.141Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z" + "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7549/resolving-the-sunflower-conjecture/", + "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8405/us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nWill the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal resolving the sunflower conjecture. If there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n", + "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\nAfter months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\nTo squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\nDetails of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\nThe Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually.\nWill a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be \"realized\", or sold to yield a profit.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:19:03.608Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:40.918Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 99, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8771/mickey-mouse-protection-act-ii-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 1998, the U.S. congress passed the [Copyright Term Extension Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act), which extended copyright protection on works that were covered by copyright in 1923, changing the date on which they would enter the public domain to 2024.\nWill copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after December 31, 2023, all versions of Mickey Mouse (including his depiction in 1928 in Steamboat Willie) remain under the copyright of the Disney Corporation.\n", + "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign by Mar. 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7559/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-by-Mar-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:12:14.019Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:01.157Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 170231 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the U.S. annual inflation on January 2022 exceed 7.0%?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-annual-inflation-on-january-2022-exceed-7p0", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Sweden in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Sweden is Lofven, who has been in power for 6.4 years. Sweden has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 102 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0010486", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9989514, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Sweden", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lofven", + "month_risk": "0.0000862", + "annual_risk": "0.0010486", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "102", + "leader_years": "6.416667", + "country_code": "SWE", + "country_abb": "SWD" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Uniswap suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, for all items) before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 7.0% from January 2021 to January 2022 and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on February 10 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote, that this market refers to the all items index increase for the 12 month period, before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote, that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 5.8%, 6.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.", + "description": "This is a market on whether Uniswap suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Uniswap is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7426029478535643429209167863980943", + "probability": "0.05444367386191355115151911092254098", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2573970521464356570790832136019057", + "probability": "0.945556326138086448848480889077459", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "47", - "liquidity": "3707.74", - "tradevolume": "2499.24", + "numforecasts": "22", + "liquidity": "4000.00", + "tradevolume": "12592.19", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Arizona Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mark Brnovich", + "probability": 0.39999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Blake Masters", + "probability": 0.3739130434782608, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Ducey", + "probability": 0.09565217391304347, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Lamon", + "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mick McGuire", + "probability": 0.026086956521739126, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andy Biggs", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paul Gosar", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kelli Ward", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kirk Adams", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kimberly Yee", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Martha McSally", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Justin Olson", + "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:31.577Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 285962 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Brnovich, Blake Masters, Doug Ducey, Jim Lamon, Mick McGuire, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Kelli Ward, Kirk Adams, Kimberly Yee, Martha McSally, Justin Olson" + }, + { + "title": "Trump is elected POTUS in 2024", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A72", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2233-before-23-june-2022-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his agenda are facing a number of challenges, including Brexit, COVID-19, and scandals ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/boris-johnsons-infrastructure-schemes-will-face-opposition), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/boris-johnson-bad-month-polls-4606bf26-c5bc-415f-aa3f-1efe959ee36c.html), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211219-uk-brexit-negotiator-frost-resigns-in-further-blow-to-pm-johnson), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/14/uk-covid-live-lateral-flow-tests-unavailable-online-england-boris-johnson-booster-coronavirus-latest-updates)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:17.198Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 989, + "numforecasters": 360, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:09.323Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 68, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.59, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:21.674Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 314, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:27.074Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 185, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7528/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Massachusetts. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Geoff Diehl", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Patrick O'Connor", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Lelling", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Baker", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Karyn Polito", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:14.835Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 61224 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Geoff Diehl, Patrick O'Connor, Andrew Lelling, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Liechtenstein in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Liechtenstein is Hans-Adam II, who has been in power for 31.3 years. Liechtenstein has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 99 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0043437", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9956563, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Liechtenstein", + "regime_type": "Monarchy", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Hans-Adam II", + "month_risk": "0.0003395", + "annual_risk": "0.0043437", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "99", + "leader_years": "31.33333", + "country_code": "LIE", + "country_abb": "LIE" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:43.180Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 167, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_%28climate_engineering%29) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_%28climate_engineering%29). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:34.400Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 47, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:47.918Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 69120 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8404/25-of-nyt-best-sellers-written-by-ai-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nBy 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?\nThis question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI. For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Fiction_Best_Sellers_of_2020). If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\nTo qualify as being written by AI, authorship of the book must be credited to an AI or more than 75% of the content must be created by AI, according to publisher's statements or credible media reports.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:35.729Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 28, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:31:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:31:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:51.454Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 237, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -55063,7 +53148,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:42:01.476Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:58.086Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 188, "resolution_data": { @@ -55077,744 +53162,63 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", + "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", + "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:15:24.976Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:08.634Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, + "numforecasts": 218, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:05:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the named candidate be in the final 2 candidates for the run-off of the next French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176650032", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on election day. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If there is no final run-off this market will be settled on the first two candidates in the first round of voting. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever wins the first round of voting. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the voting for the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.46511652215392557, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.23694615279539605, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valerie Pecresse", - "probability": 0.17940208711651418, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Zemmour", - "probability": 0.07848841311347496, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", - "probability": 0.02009303375704959, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Christiane Taubira", - "probability": 0.009133197162295267, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Yanick Jadot", - "probability": 0.002009303375704959, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.0005581398265847108, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Edouard Philippe", - "probability": 0.0005125773917614691, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Ciotti", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francois Asselineau", - "probability": 0.0007176083484660567, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "François Hollande", - "probability": 0.000528764046238147, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruno Retailleau", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.000507399842349737, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Francois Baroin", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", - "probability": 0.0005644110605912806, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": 0.0008372097398770662, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.000528764046238147, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ségolène Royal", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bruno Le Maire", - "probability": 0.0005401353160497201, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", - "probability": 0.0005023258439262397, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.012Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 195859.22 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Valerie Pecresse, Eric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Christiane Taubira, Yanick Jadot, Anne Hidalgo, Edouard Philippe, Eric Ciotti, Nicolas Sarkozy, Xavier Bertrand, Francois Asselineau, François Hollande, Bruno Retailleau, Michel Barnier, Francois Baroin, Arnaud Montebourg, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Eric Piolle, Ségolène Royal, Bruno Le Maire, Bernard Cazeneuve" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating on any day in 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-higher-than-his-disapproval-rating-on-any-day-in-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating, as per FiveThirtyEight, on any day of 2022.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator,\n(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), specifically, the approval rating indicated by the green trend line and the disapproval rating indicated by the orange line for the resolution date. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if for any day on or after January 1, 2022 and before January 1 2023, Joe Biden's approval rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than the disapproval rating.\n\nChanges in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the outlined event occurs. The last check will be on January 1, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the last check, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the rating for the resolution date is available. If the ratings are still not available on the resolution source a week later or Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval ratings.\n\nIf the resolution source link changes, the new link will be used.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3235162172135737382796469255970429", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6764837827864262617203530744029571", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "41", - "liquidity": "2488.31", - "tradevolume": "2240.30", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2240-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-1-october-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/myanmar-will-tip-further-into-violence-and-misery), [Radio Free Asia](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/detainees-01032022212032.html), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html)) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:49.853Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 178, - "numforecasters": 133, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-28 House election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7660/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-28-House-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Twenty-Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Jessica Cisneros", - "probability": 0.6176470588235294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Henry Cuellar", - "probability": 0.37254901960784315, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tannya Benavides", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:14.904Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 44169 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jessica Cisneros, Henry Cuellar, Tannya Benavides" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Paraguay in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Paraguay is Benitez, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Paraguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0066832", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9933168, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Paraguay", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Benitez", - "month_risk": "0.0005693", - "annual_risk": "0.0066832", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "2.583333", - "country_code": "PRY", - "country_abb": "PAR" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.8%?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt8", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.8%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5736390775609943332590479180394112", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4263609224390056667409520819605888", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "40", - "liquidity": "10547.72", - "tradevolume": "9044.61", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:01.802Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 1442597 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?", - "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", - "platform": "Hypermind", - "description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4509803921568627, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5490196078431372, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9584/kbj-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Ketanji Brown Jackson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketanji_Brown_Jackson), born September 14, 1970, is an American attorney and jurist serving as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021.\nIt has been [speculated](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. \nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:46:51.752Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 11, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea Bissau in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Guinea Bissau is Embalo, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Guinea Bissau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0353591", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646409, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Guinea Bissau", - "regime_type": "Presidential", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Embalo", - "month_risk": "0.0011004", - "annual_risk": "0.0353591", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "7", - "leader_years": "1.083333", - "country_code": "GNB", - "country_abb": "GNB" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2023", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A262", + "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Jordan", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A83", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", + "description": "Seems pretty unlikely now per reporting that Jim Jordan does not want to run", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm). According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2021](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022.\nWill a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a \"nuclear sharing\" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:23:30.327Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7383177570093458, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.12149532710280374, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:15.652Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 89892 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa" - }, - { - "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7673/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2022", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2022 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "3 or fewer votes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:03:31.987Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 15445 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "3 or fewer votes, 4 or 5 votes, 6 or 7 votes, 8 or 9 votes, 10 or 11 votes, 12 or 13 votes, 14 or 15 votes, 16 or 17 votes, 18 or 19 votes, 20 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Saudi Arabia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Saudi Arabia is Salman, who has been in power for 6.2 years. Saudi Arabia has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 94 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0035519", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9964481, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Saudi Arabia", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Salman", - "month_risk": "0.0002008", - "annual_risk": "0.0035519", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "94", - "leader_years": "6.166667", - "country_code": "SAU", - "country_abb": "SAU" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:06:34.854Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)\nWill there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than 1 January, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:16:28.878Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 142, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2128-what-percentage-of-us-retail-sales-will-be-made-online-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question ([Digital Commerce 360](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/coronavirus-impact-online-retail/), [Supermarket News](https://www.supermarketnews.com/online-retail/survey-convenience-drives-online-grocery-shopping-more-covid)). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce\" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html), see \"Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report\"). For the fourth quarter of 2020, the Bureau reported E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 13.6% ([Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table](https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/21q2table1.xls), xls file download).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 12.5%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 15.5%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:04:15.637Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "numforecasters": 61, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive, More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%, Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive, More than 15.5%" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:33:22.897Z", + "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 206, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z" - }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", + "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\nThe speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\nFormer President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\nTrump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.\nWill Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15th 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -55827,490 +53231,121 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:27:47.731Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:56.627Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 294, + "numforecasts": 208, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-11-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Kathy Hochul", - "probability": 0.8363636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jumaane Williams", - "probability": 0.045454545454545456, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Suozzi", - "probability": 0.027272727272727268, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Bill de Blasio", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Bellone", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:41.847Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 3387134 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kathy Hochul, Jumaane Williams, Tom Suozzi, Andrew Cuomo, Bill de Blasio, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Thomas DiNapoli, Letitia James, Hillary Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bellone" - }, - { - "title": "2024 DNOM is other than Biden or Harris", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A253", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Burundi in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Estonia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Burundi is Ndayishimiye, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Burundi has a personal regime type which has lasted for 6 years", + "description": "The current leader of Estonia is Kaja Kallas, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Estonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0163891", + "probability": "0.0023785", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9836109, + "probability": 0.9976215, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Burundi", - "regime_type": "Personal", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ndayishimiye", - "month_risk": "0.0009003", - "annual_risk": "0.0163891", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "6", - "leader_years": "0.75", - "country_code": "BDI", - "country_abb": "BUI" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/) asked if the United States would rejoin the JCPOA, informally known as the [Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) before 2022. Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal.\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2023-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2023-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:28:47.409Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 238, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Harris is 2024 DNOM", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A252", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nWill the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on 2031-06-01 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:02:07.874Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-04-22T23:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:20:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Another question asks [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/) This question focuses on the possibility of a deadly clash by 2024 between Russia and at least one NATO country, without the US being involved.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russia forces and identifiable forces of any NATO country other than the US.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n--- \nThe question resolves negatively if the above criteria are not met for a clash between Russia and a NATO country other than the US or if the criteria are met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (even if, before or afterwards, the criteria are met for a conflict between Russia and a NATO country other than the US)\nSee also\n---[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:41:25.701Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\na drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_%28meal_replacement%29) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\nWill Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n1-- \nIssuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n2-- \nBanning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n---Soylent Powder/Drink \n---Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink \n---Queal Steady \n---Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink \n---ManaPowder/ManaDrink \n---Saturo Powder/Drink \nIf additional products are listed by [blendrunner.com](http://blendrunner.com) in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:57:21.879Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 86, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2239-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-for-january-through-september-2022-exceed-the-total-for-january-through-september-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/brazils-election-offers-hope-for-the-rainforest), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/deforestation-in-brazils-amazon-rainforest-hits-15-year-high.html), [Global Landscapes Forum](https://news.globallandscapesforum.org/54461/amazon-fires-2021-moderate-risk-forecasted-but-fuel-enough-for-one-of-earths-biggest-bonfires/)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts through 30 September 2022 exceeds the total through 30 September 2021 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). Through 30 September for 2021, the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts totaled 198,341.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:51.816Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 157, - "numforecasters": 109, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Guyana in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Guyana is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Guyana has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0066572", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9933428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Guyana", + "country_name": "Estonia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mohamed Irfaan Ali", - "month_risk": "0.0005583", - "annual_risk": "0.0066572", + "leader_name": "Kaja Kallas", + "month_risk": "0.0001955", + "annual_risk": "0.0023785", "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "0.5833333", - "country_code": "GUY", - "country_abb": "GUY" + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "EST", + "country_abb": "EST" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/", + "title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8379/nuclear-weapon-with-yield-above-30-mt-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01, the following two conditions are met:\n1-- \nAt least two credible sources (major governments, scientific associations, or intelligence services) claim that a country most likely has a nuclear weapon with a yield above 30 MT. This weapon may be stockpiled or deployed (but not in development, for example).\n2-- \nNo two independent credible sources with ability to evaluate such a claim contest / deny this claim. Media reports will be counted only to the extent that they reference to such a credible source; news organizations themselves cannot be expected to have means of evaluating such a claim on their own. In the case that there is significant disagreement between these claims Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, make a judgement about the credibility of these claims, or resolve ambiguously.\nThe Russian Poseidon/Status-6 device, for example, could resolve this question positively if it met these two conditions.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the country has only one such weapon, and even if it has such a weapon sometime before 2030 but no longer has such a weapon at the start of 2030 (e.g., if it test detonates, offensively detonates, or dismantles the weapon before then).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:27:53.082Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:02.168Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 303, + "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Bored Ape Yacht Club airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-ape-yacht-club-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/millennium-prize-solution-before-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nWill another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6216577903892111853591595721228427", + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3783422096107888146408404278771573", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:56.600Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "94", - "liquidity": "923.71", - "tradevolume": "20859.80", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": 236, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on April 1st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-april-1st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on April 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on April 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Bored Apes", - "probability": "0.5984484972648253513487805419843663", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "CryptoPunks", - "probability": "0.4015515027351746486512194580156337", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "45", - "liquidity": "929.05", - "tradevolume": "2987.61", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks" - }, - { - "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2158-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-france", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/a-turbulent-political-year-is-in-store-for-france), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210713-france-to-hold-2022-presidential-election-rounds-on-april-10-and-24)). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-hits-the-campaign-trail/), [Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "National Rally (Rassemblement National)", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)", - "probability": 0.77, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "The Republicans (Les Républicains)", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "None of the above", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:31.063Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 418, - "numforecasters": 192, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "National Rally (Rassemblement National), The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!), The Republicans (Les Républicains), Unbowed France (La France Insoumise), None of the above" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/", + "title": "In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9123/pre-training-for-code-generation-in-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://%28https://fragilestatesindex.org%29)?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n", + "description": "Natural language pre-training of language models supports impressive performance gains on downstream tasks cf. [[1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.03501v2), [2](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01293), [3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165v4)]. However, research into scaling laws shows some of these gains fall off as downstream task data availability increases. In this context, we'd like to know whether natural language pre-training will continue to be useful as training scales up.\nIn 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?\nThis questions resolves positively if the most used code generating AI (by monthly average users, Dec. 2025) was pre-trained on a corpus of >50% natural language.\nIf monthly average user data is unavailable, total number of downloads of the corresponding repository/plug-in may be used for comparison instead. If no such metric is available, then the successor to GitHub Copilot will be used for resolution purposes. If all of these conditions fail, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf the precise composition of the relevant pre-training corpus is not publicly known, it will qualify for positive resolution if it is described as a natural language corpus. Alternatively, if the corpus is known to draw on sources (e.g. Twitter, books, etc.) the majority of which are not primarily used for sharing code, then the corpus will also qualify for positive resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -56323,113 +53358,421 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:40:46.344Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:32.749Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 13, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:05:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:05:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.3727272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.07272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chrissy Houlahan", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sharif Street", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Valerie Arkoosh", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:53:36.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 767360 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney, Chrissy Houlahan, Sharif Street, Valerie Arkoosh" - }, - { - "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/", + "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n", + "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic or non-strategic nuclear weapon. [Non-strategic nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges, as some non-strategic weapons can be used in a strategic context, and vice versa.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation between this question opening and 2024 was a detonation of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": null, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:40:24.381Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:25.004Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 223, + "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/", + "title": "Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2019) Federal Election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159045690", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned IN PLAY with unmatched bets cancelled at the conclusion of polling on Election Day. Thereafter unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time by Betfair and the market will not be actively managed. In the event that a government can’t be officially sworn in by the Governor General all bets on this market will be void. Coalition refers to the Liberal Party and the National Party. This is a cross-matching market. Customers should be aware that:
  • Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed and that all in-play matches are not necessarily televised.
  • The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
    • BET IN-PLAY Australian customers call Telbet to bet in-play on this market – call 132BET (132238)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Coalition", + "probability": 0.28163347415007045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labor", + "probability": 0.7040836853751761, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Any Other Party", + "probability": 0.014282840474753571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.258Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 344988.97 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Coalition, Labor, Any Other Party" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:01.878Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 122629 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8394/hemp-attacks-causing-10-million-fatalities/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n", + "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and how many such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about how much harm would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n---a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or \n---a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation \nIf one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?\nThis question resolves positively if at least one HEMP attack occurs before 2030-01-01 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by 2030-01-01 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by 2030-01-31. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\nNo attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources regarding what fatalities should be considered \"caused\" by the HEMP attack(s). This could include fatalities caused by the initial blast of a HEMP attack, the radioactive fallout, or by the infrastructure disruption caused by the HEMP. But estimates of fatalities caused by other bombs or military strikes in the same time place will not be counted as estimates of fatalities caused by the HEMP attack(s). \nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:48.692Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:28.399Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 68, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:14.481Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 71, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8752/will-omicron-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On 25 November, South Africa [announced](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/recording-briefing-on-covid-19-and-vaccination-programme-developments-25-november-2021/) that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 2023, the Omicron variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:49.930Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 267, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Right On Time by Brandi Carlile win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-5", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Right On Time by Brandi Carlile has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 11238 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Evermore by Taylor Swift win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-9", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Evermore by Taylor Swift has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9662 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the French ambassador return to Australia?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": " ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Septembrer 2021", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "October 2021", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "November 2021", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "December 2021", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Maybe later", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Septembrer 2021, October 2021, November 2021, December 2021, Maybe later" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:30.052Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 96, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen lead in the first round of the French presidential election of 2022?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": " ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05050505050505051, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9494949494949496, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Lucas Kunce", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Sifton", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Quinton Lucas", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Koster", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claire McCaskill", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Nixon", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Williams", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:11.132Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 41828 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucas Kunce, Scott Sifton, Quinton Lucas, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Brian Williams" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's May meeting?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-006", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's May meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their May 04, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -56442,301 +53785,50 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:24.988Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 2107, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 95, + "yes_ask": 98, + "spread": 3, + "shares_volume": 14758 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Kenya in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Kenya is Kenyatta, who has been in power for 7.9 years. Kenya has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 18 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": "0.0133223", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, + "probability": 0.9866777, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:48:59.238Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 480, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8553/donor-giving-10m-of-nuclear-risk-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nAs far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:\n--- \nThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)\n--- \nSince 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year\n--- \nNo other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)\nI base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012.\nWill a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.\nFootnote\n[1] To see the relevant data, go to [https://peaceandsecurityindex.org](https://peaceandsecurityindex.org), click \"Start searching\", select \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" from \"SUBJECT AREA\", and click \"List\". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking \"U.S. Federal Funders\". \n[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term \"nuclear\". These include medical research grants that use the term \"nuclear\" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": null, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:59:57.282Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 600,000 on February 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-600000-on-february-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 600,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0008563005296232096202212924940025565", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9991436994703767903797787075059974", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.330Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "164", - "liquidity": "50.00", - "tradevolume": "12437.49", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:11:47.735Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8093/moving-us-voters-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US Declaration of Independence refers to the concept of the [consent of the governed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consent_of_the_governed), that governance and its associated authority are derived from the will of the people. A lack of consent may lead to revolution in extreme cases. In modern America, citizens typically interact with governance by voting and advocating for representatives and preferred policies, or by moving to another jurisdiction with governance that already more closely aligns with their current interests.\n[Foot voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting) is the \"physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial.” America has a rich history of migration and de facto foot voting. The westward movement of citizens via Manifest Destiny, the [Mormons’ mass exodus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormon_pioneers) to Utah, and the movement of African Americans to northern cities are historic examples of foot voting in America. Although such radical migrations are less visible today, Americans still move with regularity, and federalism allows American jurisdictions to compete for residents based on tax policy, healthcare, education, job opportunities and other aspects of governance.\nIn 2001, the [Free State Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project) (FSP), a non-profit organization, explicitly encouraged Americans to move to New Hampshire to support and influence the state’s governance. Participants were asked to sign a statement of intent to move to New Hampshire within five years of reaching 20,000 signatories. In 2016, the threshold was met. There were almost 2,000 early movers, and by 2021, over 5,000 of the original signees had purportedly moved to NH, and 17 state representatives [self-identified as Free Staters](https://freestateprojectwatch.org/fsp-members-in-nh-state-senate-house-2017-2018/) in the 2017-2018 session. FSP asserts that it no longer actively aims for a specific number of voters to move. Regardless, this is both objectively impressive and evidence that this kind of coordination is extremely difficult. FSP legitimately changed NH politics but only 25% of these motivated Americans found it viable to move.\nThe Free State Project is a seminal example of foot voting that was coordinated, which refers to the intentional effort to coordinate foot voting en masse to increase the value of individual votes.\nWill a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any organization, platform or group publicly self-proclaims that they have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state by Jan 1, 2030 with the intention of voting en masse. Claims must be corroborated by credible media reports, and in the case of ambiguity, Metaculus Admins will make a determination at their discretion. We’re specifically interested in modern and relatively acute instances of CFV, so the effort should have started on or after January 1, 2016, shortly before FSP officially started counting movers (If for example, the FSP reaches 10,000 moved to NH by 2030, this will resolve the question positively). This question resolves negatively if no projects have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:38:31.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.6036036036036035, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.34234234234234234, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Richard Burr", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Forest", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Robinson", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:26.675Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 159713 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Richard Burr, Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows, Mark Robinson" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.\nWill there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation other than Good Ventures, sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over 250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example. \nA donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-28: clarified that Good Ventures doesn't count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:10:34.392Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 98, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2214-in-dobbs-v-jackson-women-s-health-organization-will-the-supreme-court-explicitly-overrule-roe-v-wade", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The Supreme Court is reviewing what could be the biggest abortion case since its decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-after-15-weeks/), [C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/video/?516168-1/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization-oral-argument&live)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:42.511Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 189, - "numforecasters": 96, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:13:24.111Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 200, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 + "extra": { + "country_name": "Kenya", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Kenyatta", + "month_risk": "0.00073", + "annual_risk": "0.0133223", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "18", + "leader_years": "7.916667", + "country_code": "KEN", + "country_abb": "KEN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -56757,7 +53849,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -56778,741 +53870,47 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Feb. 2?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7721/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Feb-2", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for February 2 at the End Date listed below. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using \"All Polls\", as displayed on the graph for February 2 at the End Date listed below. \nAny number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than February 2 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market; however, should the graph not display a number for February 2, this market shall resolve based on the most recent number displayed at the End Date for a prior day.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/03/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "40.6% or lower", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "40.7% to 40.9%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.0% to 41.2%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.3% to 41.5%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.6% to 41.8%", - "probability": 0.9252336448598131, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41.9% to 42.1%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "42.2% to 42.4%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "42.5% to 42.7%", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "42.8% or higher", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:05.239Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 278083 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "40.6% or lower, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% to 42.1%, 42.2% to 42.4%, 42.5% to 42.7%, 42.8% or higher" - }, - { - "title": "Which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7519/Which-of-these-10-Asia-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, located upon launch of this market at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold the position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy of such person from, or appointment of another person to, that position. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. For purposes of this market, the family names of President Moon Jae-in, President Joko Widodo, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Moon,\" \"Widodo,\" and \"Kishida,\" respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.8018018018018017, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ebrahim Raisi", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.036036036036036036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Naftali Bennett", - "probability": 0.018018018018018018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kishida Fumio", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rodrigo Duterte", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Imran Khan", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:59:29.163Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 45580 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Moon Jae-in, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ebrahim Raisi, Scott Morrison, Naftali Bennett, Kishida Fumio, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Rodrigo Duterte, Imran Khan" - }, - { - "title": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8583/top-movies-in-2050-primarily-franchises/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The prevalence of remakes (such as Aladdin (2019) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by some as [evidence of a lack of ideas or an aversion to risk in Hollywood](https://news.yahoo.com/theres-reason-why-many-remakes-141000996.html). Others see it as a sign of a stagnant culture. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about culture in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe panopticon of social media and state control will lead to cultural stagnation. We already see early hints of this. Consider the remakes of older movies: 2050 will be a stew of remakes of remakes, and familiar and boring intellectual property (like Star Wars) will be king. Creativity vivacity will suffer, especially in the arts and humanities. The coming half-century will be a great one for innovations in finance, engineering, space travel, and artificial intelligence. It will be a terrible one for the arts and basic scientific advancements (like a new physics), for such advancements [require iconoclastic and creative lone individuals](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone). This prediction is already augured by judging the 2000-2020 creative period overall in areas like art, music, literature, film, and scientific discoveries, and finding it severely lacking compared to, say, 1950-1970.\nWill at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?\nThis resolves positively if at least 10 of the top 20 highest grossing movies in the United States in 2050 are part of a franchise which has previously appeared in a movie released in theaters in the United States. Sequels to previously released movies, spin-off movies containing characters from a previously released movie, and in-universe movies (for example a Star Wars movie containing entirely new characters and settings but canonically in the Star Wars universe) would all count as part of an existing franchise previously appearing in a movie. If theaters are no longer the primary form of new movie releases in 2050 the admins may use their discretion to determine an equivalent metric for the highest grossing movies in the US in 2050.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:01:42.355Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-07-02T04:37:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of South Africa's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 September 2022?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2213-what-percentage-of-south-africa-s-population-will-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-of-1-september-2022", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 2 September 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF. For example, South Africa's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 24.25%. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 35.00%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 80.00%", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:01:44.714Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 86, - "numforecasters": 48, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 35.00%, Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive, More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%, Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive, More than 80.00%" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8299/fed-trimming-size-of-asset-portfolio/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. \nThis is creating a massive asset portfolio (“Reserve Bank credit”) that the debt holds, which was at $8.4 trillion as of Sep 29, according to this [release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm). The concern is such steps may contribute to price bubbles in markets and economic overheating due to excessive risk-taking. The opposite concern is that a quick asset selloff may create a market glut, lowering the cost of raising capital for companies.\nWill the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by Jan. 1, 2023, assets held by the Fed, according to estimates published [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm), are below $8 trillion.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:48:20.503Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 53, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-10T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:00:26.755Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 254, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8474/price-of-ca-water-nqh20-over-2500-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it’s treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)), trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200.\nWill the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if the price of water hits $2500, adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD, on the [NQH20](https://waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) by 2050-01-01, 00:00 UTC. This question resolves negatively if the price of water does not hit $2500 by that date, and it resolves ambiguously if the NQH20 or a similar exchange doesn't continuously track California water prices up until 2050.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:55:22.484Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 11, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Nevada?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-nevada", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Democrat", - "probability": "0.3632076990540690471836587550773347", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": "0.6367923009459309528163412449226653", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "14", - "liquidity": "300.00", - "tradevolume": "1094.67", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Cyprus in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Bahamas in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Cyprus is Nikos Anastasiadis, who has been in power for 8.1 years. Cyprus has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 61 years", + "description": "The current leader of Bahamas is Hubert Minnis, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Bahamas has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 48 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0017092", + "probability": "0.0027338", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9982908, + "probability": 0.9972662, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Cyprus", - "regime_type": "Foreign", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Nikos Anastasiadis", - "month_risk": "0.0001423", - "annual_risk": "0.0017092", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "61", - "leader_years": "8.083333", - "country_code": "CYP", - "country_abb": "CYP" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:52:52.524Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 119818 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591/ghouta-chemical-attack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.\nWill a mainstream American news outlet report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack?\nThis question will resolve positive if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nA year is given to make sure we know the author's opinions. The article cannot be an op-ed; it has to be reporting. A \"major mainstream news outlet\" refers to one of the following:\n---ABC News \n---CBS News \n---CNN \n---MSNBC \n---NBC News \n---The New York Times \n---The Washington Post \n---Bloomberg \n---NPR \n---The New Yorker \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:20:29.100Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-08-21T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:15:25.568Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 173, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Iran recognize Israel by 2070?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7808/iran-recognizing-israel/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) does not recognize [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), and a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the \"Zionist regime\", \"occupied Palestine\", and the \"little Satan\", while they refer to the United States as the \"great Satan\". Before the [Iranian Revolution of 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), Iran and Israel [maintained close ties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Israeli_independence_to_Iranian_revolution_%281947%E2%80%9379%29).\nWill Iran recognize Israel by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) is legally recognized by [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\nThe recognition can be done by the Islamic Republic of Iran or by any state that has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:27:17.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Slovakia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Slovakia is Matovic, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Slovakia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0027612", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9972388, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Slovakia", + "country_name": "Bahamas", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Matovic", - "month_risk": "0.0002235", - "annual_risk": "0.0027612", + "leader_name": "Hubert Minnis", + "month_risk": "0.0002231", + "annual_risk": "0.0027338", "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "28", - "leader_years": "1", - "country_code": "SVK", - "country_abb": "SLO" + "regime_years": "48", + "leader_years": "3.833333", + "country_code": "BHS", + "country_abb": "BHM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson?", - "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234", - "platform": "Betfair", - "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by The Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. PLEASE NOTE Just after 20:00 (GMT) on 6 April 2020, mainstream media reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been moved to intensive care due to his ill health. Within an hour of this news coming to our attention, we suspended the following market on the Betfair Exchange. Given the exceptional circumstances, these markets will remain suspended and unavailable for trading until further notice. You will still be able to view details of your open bets in the ‘My Bets’ section of your account. Any unmatched bets on these markets (including keep bets) have been cancelled", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.30551157202485696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.12729648834369042, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.09456310562674143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Tugendhat", - "probability": 0.11032362323119833, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.07637789300621424, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.0330970869693595, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.03677454107706611, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.018052956528741546, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.0397165043632314, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.0215850567191475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nadhim Zahawi", - "probability": 0.029203312031787797, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.013238834787743802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.00992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Harper", - "probability": 0.00522585583726729, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kwasi Kwarteng", - "probability": 0.008274271742339875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Johnny Mercer", - "probability": 0.006619417393871901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Kemi Badenoch", - "probability": 0.006619417393871901, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Oliver Dowden", - "probability": 0.0011283097830463466, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Therese Coffey", - "probability": 0.004728155281337072, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.0010676479667535324, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "James Cleverly", - "probability": 0.0041371358711699375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Grant Shapps", - "probability": 0.003546116461002804, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.0033097086969359505, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.0020685679355849688, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Anne-Marie Trevelyan", - "probability": 0.0058406624063575595, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brandon Lewis", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.001013176131715087, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nadine Dorries", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George Eustice", - "probability": 0.0012411407613509813, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.002256619566092693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.009026478264370773, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Theresa May", - "probability": 0.0031028519033774534, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Will Quince", - "probability": 0.002206472464623967, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jesse Norman", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suella Braverman", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ranil Jayawardena", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Simon Hart", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Natalie Evans", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Alister Jack", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.0010029420293745303, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Geoffrey Cox", - "probability": 0.000992912609080785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.011Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "volume": 140859.99 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Ben Wallace, Steve Baker, Nadhim Zahawi, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Mark Harper, Kwasi Kwarteng, Johnny Mercer, Kemi Badenoch, Oliver Dowden, Therese Coffey, Rory Stewart, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Ruth Davidson, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Brandon Lewis, Matt Hancock, Nadine Dorries, Amanda Milling, George Eustice, Andrea Leadsom, Robert Buckland, Theresa May, Will Quince, Robert Jenrick, Jesse Norman, Suella Braverman, Ranil Jayawardena, Simon Hart, Natalie Evans, Alister Jack, Amber Rudd, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox" - }, - { - "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/", + "title": "Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\nThe day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\nOur custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.\n", + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nWill there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2100, there has been a period of at least 5 consecutive years in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -57525,234 +53923,218 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:56:01.930Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:57.630Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 139, + "numforecasts": 420, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8134/deadly-clash-between-india-and-china-by-2023/", + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Josh Mandel", + "probability": 0.34234234234234234, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "J. D. Vance", + "probability": 0.23423423423423423, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jane Timken", + "probability": 0.18018018018018017, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Gibbons", + "probability": 0.11711711711711711, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rob Portman", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Jordan", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Husted", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mary Taylor", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Renacci", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Frank LaRose", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Steve Stivers", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brad Wenstrup", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Turner", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Warren Davidson", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill Johnson", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Pukita", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bernie Moreno", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matt Dolan", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:46.538Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1210023 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, Mike Gibbons, Rob Portman, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Steve Stivers, Brad Wenstrup, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson, Mark Pukita, Bernie Moreno, Matt Dolan" + }, + { + "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Another [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/) asks about a potential conflict before 2024.\nThis question asks what might happen by 2023.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2022-12-31 UTC.\n", + "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:28.379Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:55.751Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 865, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "title": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2206-which-political-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-northern-ireland-assembly-election", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/celebrations-in-2022-cannot-hide-an-uncertain-future-for-britain), [Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/11/uk-eu-northern-ireland/620716/), [Belfast Telegraph](https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/dup-battling-back-but-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-still-on-course-for-first-minister-41047391.html), [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/part/IV/crossheading/elections-etc)). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., [NI Assembly](http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2017-2022/2017/general/2217.pdf), see Table 5.1).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6504854368932039, + "name": "Democratic Unionist Party", + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.3495145631067961, + "name": "Sinn Féin", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Another party", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:57:42.904Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:08.121Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 20239 + "numforecasts": 156, + "numforecasters": 118, + "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin, Another party" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in South Africa in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of South Africa is Ramaphosa, who has been in power for 3.1 years. South Africa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 27 years", + "title": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8982/belfast-2021-wins-best-picture-oscar/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Belfast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast_%28film%29) (2021) is a comedy-drama movie directed by [Kenneth Branagh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Branagh), which tells a coming-of-age story taking place during [The Troubles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles) in Northern Ireland. It recieved 7 nominations at the [Golden Globe Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_Golden_Globe_Awards) and 11 nominations at the [Critics' Choice Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/27th_Critics%27_Choice_Awards). [RottenTomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/belfast) gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/belfast) gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics.\nThe [94th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards) (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Nominations are scheduled to be announced February 8, 2022.\nWill Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?\nThis question will resolve positively if Belfast wins the Best Picture award at the [2022 Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards), and will resolve negatively otherwise. In the case that Belfast is not nominated for the Best Picture category, this question will retroactively close and resolve negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0049955", + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9950045, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:08.724Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "South Africa", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Ramaphosa", - "month_risk": "0.0003977", - "annual_risk": "0.0049955", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "27", - "leader_years": "3.083333", - "country_code": "ZAF", - "country_abb": "SAF" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Nevada Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Adam Laxalt", - "probability": 0.6880733944954128, - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "numforecasts": 27, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-03-26T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-28T16:00:00Z" }, - { - "name": "Sam Brown", - "probability": 0.2477064220183486, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Amodei", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heidi Gansert", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Hutchison", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Brian Sandoval", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ben Kieckhefer", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jill Tolles", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sharelle Mendenhall", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:56:02.995Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 54012 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Adam Laxalt, Sam Brown, Mark Amodei, Heidi Gansert, Mark Hutchison, Brian Sandoval, Ben Kieckhefer, Jill Tolles, Sharelle Mendenhall" - }, - { - "title": "At least one state other than NC, OH, FL, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV, or NH flips parties in 2022 Senate elections", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A163", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Swaziland in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Swaziland is Mswati, who has been in power for 34.9 years. Swaziland has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 53 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0142565", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9857435, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.536Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Swaziland", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Mswati", - "month_risk": "0.0009074", - "annual_risk": "0.0142565", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "53", - "leader_years": "34.91667", - "country_code": "SWZ", - "country_abb": "SWA" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Leave The Door Open by Silk Sonic win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-10", + "title": "Will Donda by Kanye West win Album of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-10", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Leave The Door Open by Silk Sonic has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "description": "If Donda by Kanye West has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -57765,47 +54147,396 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, + "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 0, "yes_ask": 1, "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 13306 + "shares_volume": 8010 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 100,000 on March 1, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-100000-on-march-1-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 100,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ", + "title": "Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2790/self-driving-car-to-beat-a-self-driving-truck-in-making-the-first-cross-usa-trip/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "While self-driving cars could put hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers out of a job, self-driving trucks could leave millions of truck drivers without work. In his book, The War on Normal People, Andrew Yang cites the argument for self-driving trucks to come first:\nJim Scheinman, a venture capitalist at Maven Ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars, says that self-driving trucks will arrive significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier. Highways, the domain of semi trucks, are much less complex than urban areas, with fewer intersections and clearer road markings. And the economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars.\nMorgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering $168 billion per year in saved fuel ($35 billion), reduced labor costs ($70 billion), fewer accidents ($36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization ($27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their $40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year. \nOn the other hand, Elon Musk has suggested that Autopilot will become robust enough to do an [autonomous cross-country roadtrip](https://electrek.co/2019/05/09/self-driving-cross-country-trip-everyone-tesla-this-year-musk/) by the end of the year, although he had made similar promises in [2017 and 2018](https://www.autopilotreview.com/tesla-cross-country-autopilot-2018/):\nWe could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too\n— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) [May 9, 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)\nWill a self-driving car make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?\nThis question will have the same resolution condition as a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/) about self-driving trucks. For resolution, the car or truck must have no safety driver, but need not be commercially available. \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7668927347503030267761061307160912", + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2331072652496969732238938692839088", + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:02.749Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "42", - "liquidity": "374.17", - "tradevolume": "1296.51", + "numforecasts": 111, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/", + "title": "Will “Jackass Forever” gross domestically more than $20 million on the opening weekend?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jackass-forever-gross-domestically-more-than-20-million-on-the-opening-weekend", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on how much 'Jackass Forever' (to be released on February 4, 2022) will gross domestically on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11466222/ will resolve this market when checked on February 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Jackass Forever' grossed domestically more than $20,000,000.00, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7044517397304406211890313867328423", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2955482602695593788109686132671577", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "39", + "liquidity": "654.65", + "tradevolume": "1032.07", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Kamala Harris", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A185", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "Much lower than conventional wisdom", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n", + "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:19.135Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.5188679245283019, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.4339622641509434, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Libertarian", + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Green", + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:11.062Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 816943 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Mike DeWine", + "probability": 0.6422018348623852, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Renacci", + "probability": 0.2477064220183486, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Blystone", + "probability": 0.055045871559633024, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Jordan", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Husted", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mary Taylor", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Rodgers", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Warren Davidson", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave Yost", + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:11.513Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 94133 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike DeWine, Jim Renacci, Joe Blystone, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Adam Rodgers, Warren Davidson, Dave Yost" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Mongolia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Mongolia is Khaltmaagiin Battulga, who has been in power for 3.7 years. Mongolia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0088387", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9911613, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Mongolia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Khaltmaagiin Battulga", + "month_risk": "0.0004818", + "annual_risk": "0.0088387", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.16", + "regime_years": "28", + "leader_years": "3.666667", + "country_code": "MNG", + "country_abb": "MON" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "SCOTUS overturns Roe v. Wade by EOY 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A264", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:39.184Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 207, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-07-22T19:47:11Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish win at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-001-5", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish has won Album of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 21080 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US average new COVID-19 cases ever **fall below March 2020 levels** in 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-002", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 11,790 for a single day between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for December 31, 2022, or 10:00 AM on January 05, 2023.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 77, + "yes_ask": 81, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 19382 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic lieutenant governor nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7686/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-lieutenant-governor-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Michelle Beckley", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Collier", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carla Brailey", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:45.961Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 3062 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Beckley, Mike Collier, Carla Brailey" + }, + { + "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8725/future-covid-summer-peak-exceeds-winter-peak/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.\nVDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.\nWill the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?\nThis will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) or COVID-like illness [(“Weekly CLI visits (counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.\nThis applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -57818,53 +54549,436 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:20:04.911Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:46.870Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Cape Verde in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Cape Verde is Correia e Silva, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Cape Verde has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "title": "Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9182/uk-deaths-from-covid-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "About 75,000 British people died of Covid in 2020 and a roughly similar number in 2021, despite strict lockdown measures. Will we see anything on that scale in 2022?\nWill more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?\nIf, according to the [UK Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), the total cumulative number of deaths on 31 December 2022 is more than 20,000 higher than it was on 31 December 2021 (149,000), then this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0093951", + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9906049, + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.532Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:36.916Z", "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 172, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-30T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T23:59:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Cape Verde", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Correia e Silva", - "month_risk": "0.0007333", - "annual_risk": "0.0093951", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "30", - "leader_years": "4.916667", - "country_code": "CPV", - "country_abb": "CAP" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:04.665Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n2000: 6th 2004: 7th 2008: 10th 2012: 7th 2016: 7th 2020: 8th \nWill France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:25.561Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 25, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:38.478Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 225, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T18:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Fight For You by H.E.R. win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-4", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Fight For You by H.E.R. has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 29356 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any national GOP primary poll show someone beating Trump by July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7619/Will-any-national-GOP-primary-poll-show-someone-beating-Trump-by-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any national primary poll of likely or registered Republican voters for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is released by a pollster rated \"B\" or higher by fivethirtyeight.com and shows President Donald Trump to be in second place or lower. Qualifying polls must show President Trump as a candidate and be posted to the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator subsequent to the launch of this market on December 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below. A poll that shows Mr. Trump in a tie for first place shall be insufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nAt the time of the launch of this market market, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/, while pollster ratings can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/. For purposes of this market, a rating of \"A/B\" shall be considered to be \"B\" or higher. A rating of \"B/C\" shall not be considered to be \"B\" or higher. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:38.191Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 28012 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "John Fetterman", + "probability": 0.5045045045045045, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conor Lamb", + "probability": 0.3693693693693693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.07207207207207207, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Madeleine Dean", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Sestak", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Kenney", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chrissy Houlahan", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sharif Street", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valerie Arkoosh", + "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:25.664Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 771688 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney, Chrissy Houlahan, Sharif Street, Valerie Arkoosh" + }, + { + "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:29.542Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 305, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_%28mathematician%29) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:53.490Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 141, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Spain have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Italy on March 1st?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-spain-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-italy-on-march-1st", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spain has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Italy on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2087267058132418846912620125330431", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7912732941867581153087379874669569", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "51", + "liquidity": "941.66", + "tradevolume": "1335.33", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected Milwaukee mayor in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7696/Who-will-be-elected-Milwaukee-mayor-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Milwaukee, Wisconsin in the 2022 mayoral special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Cavalier Johnson", + "probability": 0.7326732673267327, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Earnell Lucas", + "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lena Taylor", + "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bob Donovan", + "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marina Dimitrijevic", + "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Michael Sampson", + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:16.474Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 5213 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Cavalier Johnson, Earnell Lucas, Lena Taylor, Bob Donovan, Marina Dimitrijevic, Michael Sampson" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8360/israel-mandates-salt-iodization-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Unlike most other industrialized nations, Israel has never iodized its salt on a National level, and has a [widespread](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251) [iodine](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32357947/) [deficiency](https://ijhpr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13584-020-00382-5). Israel's [Health Ministry](https://health.gov.il/English/Topics/FoodAndNutrition/Nutrition/Adequate_nutrition/Pages/iodine.aspx) has a page on the iodine issue, and the iodine issue in Israel [has](https://www.jpost.com/Business-and-Innovation/Health-and-Science/Health-Ministry-lags-behind-Iran-and-PA-in-iodine-fortification-of-salt-497207) [received](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170327083438.htm) [substantial](https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/study-israelis-have-among-world-s-worst-iodine-deficiency-1.5453908) [media](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) [attention](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/health-and-science/iodine-free-salt-create-national-health-problem-485381).\nIodine is [well](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15292317/) [known](https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/how-adding-iodine-to-salt-boosted-americans-iq) [to increase IQ](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6145226/). It is known that iodine deprivation for children and pregnant mothers, the groups tested in Israel, hurts national IQ; the data on adults is [less clear.](https://www.gwern.net/Iodine) It has been [suggested](https://twitter.com/Go321D/status/988159032467701760) that iodine deficiency is hurting the cognitive performance of Israel pupils. \nThe iodine issue was first identified [in 2017](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251). Recently, the Health Ministry [has considered](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) iodizing salt.\nAround 120 countries have some form of mandating salt iodization ([Dasgupta, et al. 2008](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509517/)), although the US, for example, does not.\nWill Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel passes any policy requiring the majority of food-grade salt to be fortified with iodine before 2030-01-01, according to credible media reports or official government announcements.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:28.899Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 27, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:53.569Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 32, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -57885,7 +54999,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -57906,62 +55020,652 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will it **snow more than 5 inches** in New York City in January?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/LSNOWNY-004", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the total snowfall in New York City between January 01, 2022 and January 31, 2022 (inclusive) is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see LSNOWNY in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including how to calculate total snowfall.. The resolution source is: Snowfall totals in Central Park, New York City, New York according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”) (undefined)", + "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.010000000000000009, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:22.991Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 99, - "yes_ask": 100, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 12576 + "numforecasts": 118, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8542/at-least-one-hemp-attack-by-2024/", + "title": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\nOther questions in this tournament ask [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/); how many such attacks would occur, if any do; and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question asks how likely a HEMP attack is if there's any offensive nuclear detonation, to get a clearer sense of how correlated the two types of risks are. For further context on this question, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nWill at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation by 2024. It resolves positively if there is both a HEMP attack and an offensive nuclear detonation (not counting the HEMP attack) by 2024. This requires that, by 31 January 2024, at least three credible sources report each of those events having occurred between this question opening and the end of 2023. What order these events occur in and how close together in time they occur will not be taken into account.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either: 1) a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or 2) a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage). In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "description": "For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\nWill there be a China-India war by 2035?\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:58:59.485Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:39.216Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will there be a **G3 geomagnetic storm** by March 01, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GSTORM-011", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the maximum Planetary K-Index between Issuance (10:00 AM ET/2:00 PM UTC on January 19, 2022) and March 01, 2022 (inclusive) is at least 7 (equivalent to a G3 geomagnetic storm), then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see GSTORM in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, as well as further details about the market.\n\nPlease note that the Exchange shall use the date as reported by the Source Agency, and will not make manual time zone adjustments. The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, the first 10:00 AM ET following release of all of the data in the period between Issuance and March 01, 2022 or one week following March 01, 2022. The Last Trading Time shall be the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, or 11:59 PM ET on March 01, 2022.. The resolution source is: The maximum Planetary K-index as reported by the Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 20, + "yes_ask": 24, + "spread": 4, + "shares_volume": 4264 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a for-profit corporation.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:04.801Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 32, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Despite widespread rumors, Bill Gates, formerly the richest man in the world, has yet to announce a program to implant brain-computer interfaces in the world population. [Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-id2020/) rated the following claim false:\nBill Gates ... seeks to \"microchip\" the world population\nHowever, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already [implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53956683):\nElon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface.\nWill Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible reports say that Bill Gates (or the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or any other foudation of which he is the founder) owns a stake in any company or non-profit, or made a grant to any company, non-profit, or researcher, that has implanted a brain-computer interface in at least one person before the resolution date.\nIf the company in question was public prior to Gates obtaining a stake in it, then he must own at least 1% of the company and a minimum of $10 million for this to resolve positively. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:31.603Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 69, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-22T12:17:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T13:17:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "William McSwain", + "probability": 0.29411764705882354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dave White", + "probability": 0.21323529411764702, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lou Barletta", + "probability": 0.19117647058823528, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Doug Mastriano", + "probability": 0.1691176470588235, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jake Corman", + "probability": 0.03676470588235294, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Gale", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Gerow", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jason Monn", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jason Richey", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nche Zama", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Scott Martin", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Kelly", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Laughlin", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Meuser", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ryan Aument", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Cawley", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Brian Fitzpatrick", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.007352941176470588, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:58.569Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 73153 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "William McSwain, Dave White, Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, Jake Corman, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama, Scott Martin, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Dan Meuser, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr." + }, + { + "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nFor example, OpenAI was initially founded as a non-profit organization \"so that they could focus its research on creating a positive long-term human impact.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Motives))\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a non-profit organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:25.686Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 43, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \nThe project aims to:\n--- \nMomentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n--- \nProduce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\nBy the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:58.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 282, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \nA 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.\nWill there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?\nThis resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.\nIf OWID revises their 2018 estimate at any point, or an alternative source is to be used, that source's most up-to-date 2018 value should be used where possible to ensure an appropriate comparison. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:30.276Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 174, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:07.035Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 495, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will USD Coin (USDC) have a market cap of $52 billion or higher on February 8, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-usd-coin-usdc-have-a-market-cap-of-52-billion-or-higher-on-february-8-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether USD Coin (USDC) will have a market cap of $52,000,000,000.00 USD or higher on the resolution date of February 8, 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if USDC has a market cap of $52 billion USD or higher according to the resolution source for the date of February 8, 2022. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the “Historical Data” table for USDC on coingecko.com (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data/usd#panel). To find the Market Cap data that will be used, open the Historical Data table for USDC, then find the number under “Market Cap” for the day of February 8, 2022. The Market Cap figure for this date will be checked at 12:00 AM ET, February 9, 2022. If the resolution source is unavailable, CoinMarketCap will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4285185329131039062639518782875091", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5714814670868960937360481217124909", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "97", + "liquidity": "400.00", + "tradevolume": "1751.63", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:26.538Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 106, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:09.435Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 238, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8558/polygamy-legal-in-us-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\nthe state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\nmarriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nPolyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050.\nWill polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if any time between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), polygamy is legal federally and in all states in the United States. Resolution may be provided by credible media reports or official US government sources.\nFor the purposes of this question, the legality of polygamy must be indifferent to sex or gender; that is, it should permit both a marriage of one man with multiple women, one woman with multiple men, or any arrangement of legally recognized sexes/genders. Legally-recognized polygamous marriages must allow at least 3 members to be married, though they need not all share equal rights.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:11.882Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 47, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T15:08:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Donald J Trump", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A180", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:17.583Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 201, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:08.465Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1733, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 92 million Americans have **COVID-19 boosters** by February 9, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/BOOSTER-018", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If over 92 million fully vaccinated Americans are reported as having received a booster shot for COVID-19 by February 9, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see BOOSTER in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 9, 2022 or February 16, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of fully vaccinated people who have received a booster shot for COVID-19 as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 2, + "yes_ask": 4, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 3680 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": " GOP impeaches Biden by EOY 2025 if they take the house by EOY 2025", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A209", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-09-01T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kiss Me More by Doja Cat win Record of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-003-6", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If Kiss Me More by Doja Cat has won Record of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 9168 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364", @@ -57984,7 +55688,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.640Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 @@ -57992,10 +55696,233 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging." }, { - "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/", + "title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7599/usa-withdraws-from-a-mutual-defence-treaty/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n", + "description": "Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.\nCurrently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nWill the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports completion of a process for the USA to withdraw from any of the following treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports that the USA withdrew military or financial support from any of the above treaties without following the process of withdrawal outlined in the relevant treaties for a continuous period of one year.\nIf a sufficient number of parties to any of the above treaties (other than the USA) withdraws (as above) for the treaty to be dissolved, this does not count towards a positive resolution. For example see Southeast Asia Treaty which dissolved in 1977 after France and Pakistan withdrew.\nResolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. (copied verbatim from [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) )\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:19.040Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Burkina Faso in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Burkina Faso is Kabore, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Burkina Faso has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0319995", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9680005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Burkina Faso", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Kabore", + "month_risk": "0.0033682", + "annual_risk": "0.0319995", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "5", + "leader_years": "5.25", + "country_code": "BFA", + "country_abb": "BFO" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Philippines in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Philippines is Rodrigo Duterte, who has been in power for 4.8 years. Philippines has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 35 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0062266", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9937734, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Philippines", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Rodrigo Duterte", + "month_risk": "0.0016222", + "annual_risk": "0.0062266", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "35", + "leader_years": "4.75", + "country_code": "PHL", + "country_abb": "PHI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2134-what-will-be-the-average-temperature-at-dubai-international-airport-between-1-may-2022-and-30-september-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from Meteostat ([Meteostat](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194)). On the page, set the date range for \"2021-05-01 - 2021-09-30\" in the field above the \"Avg. Pressure\" field and click the \"Export\" button. The average of the daily averages (\"tavg\" in the file) will be used for resolution. Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, the average temperature was 35.48497 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2020](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2020-05-01/2020-09-30)). For the same period in 2019, the average temperature was and 35.63268 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2021](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2019-05-01/2019-09-30)). This question will be resolved with data available on 7 October 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 37.5 degrees Celsius", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:06.132Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 149, + "numforecasters": 55, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius, Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius, Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 37.5 degrees Celsius" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by April 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-april-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6866014374759496837547351064445324", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3133985625240503162452648935554676", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "165", + "liquidity": "7025.33", + "tradevolume": "10930.30", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:50.390Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 992, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?", + "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA", + "platform": "Hypermind", + "description": " ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9423076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:22.632Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump is 2024 POTUS", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A244", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -58008,90 +55935,1687 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:52:27.027Z", + "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 75, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:45.763Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Solomon Islands in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Solomon Islands is Sogavare, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Solomon Islands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years", + "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0056878", + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9943122, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.534Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:32.416Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 251, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:36.213Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7718/Who-will-be-the-next-Supreme-Court-nominee", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual nominated by the President, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 26, 2022, to the position of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. It is not necessary for the nominee to be confirmed by the Senate in order for the associated contract to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "K. Brown Jackson", + "probability": 0.5083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "J. Michelle Childs", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Leondra Kruger", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wilhelmina Wright", + "probability": 0.025, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "C. Jackson-Akiwumi", + "probability": 0.016666666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "L. Abrams Gardner", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sherrilyn Ifill", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tiffany Cunningham", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ojetta Thompson", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Eunice Lee", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kamala Harris", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "D. Holley-Walker", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Melissa Murray", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anita Earls", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Holly Thomas", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arianna Freeman", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nancy Abudu", + "probability": 0.008333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:14.237Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 1537434 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "K. Brown Jackson, J. Michelle Childs, Leondra Kruger, Wilhelmina Wright, C. Jackson-Akiwumi, L. Abrams Gardner, Sherrilyn Ifill, Tiffany Cunningham, Ojetta Thompson, Eunice Lee, Kamala Harris, D. Holley-Walker, Melissa Murray, Anita Earls, Holly Thomas, Arianna Freeman, Nancy Abudu" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:31.578Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 60, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. President remain the sole authority to authorize the use of Nuclear weapons by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8670/us-pres-exclusive-authority-on-nukes-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a [Nuclear Risk tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). Most of these questions focus on stockpiles, detonation and other outcomes. To answer these questions with fidelity, predictors must make assumptions concerning the processes and conditions in which a nuclear weapon would be launched.\nAn excerpt from a [Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf) outlines the command and control of nuclear forces in the United States:\nThe U.S. President has sole authority to authorize the use of U.S. nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from his military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. But, as General John Hyten, then the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), noted, his job is to give advice, while the authority to order a launch lies with the President.\nWill the U.S. President remain the sole authority to authorize the use of Nuclear weapons by 2030?\nThis question will resolve negatively if by 2030-01-01, a single or set of American laws, amendments, or other legal mechanisms adds additional required authorizing parties to the final decision to use nuclear force and/or if the president is no longer an authority in the process. This question will resolve positively if the acting U.S. president remains the sole authority from 2021-11-01 to 2030-01-01.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:43.002Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Ethereum reach $3000 by Valentine's Day?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-reach-3000-by-valentines-day", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Ethereum (ETH) is $3000.00 or above at any point within the market time frame as per Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum), and “No” otherwise. \n\nThe market time frame spans from January 31 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET) to February 14 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET).\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.616618422726164499081693745303608", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.383381577273835500918306254696392", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "213", + "liquidity": "1269.31", + "tradevolume": "3250.84", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Maura Healey", + "probability": 0.7920792079207919, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Geoff Diehl", + "probability": 0.0693069306930693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz", + "probability": 0.05940594059405939, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Charlie Baker", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Karyn Polito", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Benjamin Downing", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ayanna Pressley", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Danielle Allen", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Kennedy III", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jay Gonzalez", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Marty Walsh", + "probability": 0.0099009900990099, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:54.905Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 271959 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Maura Healey, Geoff Diehl, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Danielle Allen, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez, Marty Walsh" + }, + { + "title": "Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8981/chinese-gdp-growth-from-q2-q4-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Chinese Economy](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI) has grown remarkably fast in recent decades, with 10-20% annual growth in GDP. Q1 of 2020 marked the one exception where GDP declined by 6% compared to Q1 2019, due to China's heavy lockdowns during the early [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic).\nWill China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if China's GDP in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2022 are greater than the previous quarter, according to the [OECD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:03.583Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 110, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591/ghouta-chemical-attack/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.\nWill a mainstream American news outlet report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack?\nThis question will resolve positive if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nA year is given to make sure we know the author's opinions. The article cannot be an op-ed; it has to be reporting. A \"major mainstream news outlet\" refers to one of the following:\n---ABC News \n---CBS News \n---CNN \n---MSNBC \n---NBC News \n---The New York Times \n---The Washington Post \n---Bloomberg \n---NPR \n---The New Yorker \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:53.114Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 28, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-08-21T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.87, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:28.198Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 103, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8997/new-variant-of-concern-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The World Health Organization publishes a list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added [Omicron](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron) to this classification, bringing the total number of VoCs to 5.\nWill WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if anytime between December 24, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the World Health Organization adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This may include a reclassification of any variant or descendent of a variant currently known in December 24, 2021 as a Variant of Interest or Variant Under Monitoring. Classifications by other sources or organizations such as the [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/) or [ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) are irrelevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:11.291Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 115, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected to be the next Prime Minister of Hungary as a result of the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193037137", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Additional runners may be added upon request. This market will be settled upon whomever is formally elected by the National Assembly to the position of Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market once an official announcement is made. However, once Betfair becomes aware of an official announcement, the market will be suspended. This market will be void if an election does not take place before the end of 2022. If more than one election takes place in this time period, then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of Prime Minister of Hungary on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Viktor Orban", + "probability": 0.7550644567219152, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Peter Marki-Zay", + "probability": 0.24493554327808476, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.263Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "volume": 3658.55 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Viktor Orban, Peter Marki-Zay" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:00.288Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 165, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which 2022 Senate race will be the closest?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7634/Which-2022-Senate-race-will-be-the-closest", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2022 Senate election that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates. Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round. Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.\nAll listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races unless otherwise stated.\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported. In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered. \nShould the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied, and in favor of a regular election over a special election in the same state. \nAdditional contracts may be added to this market subsequent to its launch.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Pennsylvania", + "probability": 0.13725490196078433, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Georgia", + "probability": 0.13725490196078433, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "New Hampshire", + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Arizona", + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nevada", + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Colorado", + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alaska", + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wisconsin", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "North Carolina", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Oregon", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florida", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Missouri", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ohio", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:58.760Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 46961 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oregon, Florida, Missouri, Ohio" + }, + { + "title": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).\nWill SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?\nIf Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers to its database at any point in 2023, this question will resolve positively.\nIf another organisation widely reported to have involvement from Alexandra Elbakyan providing a similar service (as judged by Metaculus mods) to Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers, this should still resolve positively. \nOtherwise it should resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.81, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:56.007Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 76, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Algeria in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Algeria is Tebboune, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Algeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 0 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0106954", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9893046, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Solomon Islands", + "country_name": "Algeria", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Tebboune", + "month_risk": "0.000453", + "annual_risk": "0.0106954", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "0", + "leader_years": "1.25", + "country_code": "DZA", + "country_abb": "ALG" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Guatemala in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Guatemala is Giammattei, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Guatemala has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 25 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0058023", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9941977, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Guatemala", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Giammattei", + "month_risk": "0.000452", + "annual_risk": "0.0058023", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "25", + "leader_years": "1.166667", + "country_code": "GTM", + "country_abb": "GUA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:08.638Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 361, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in USA in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of USA is Biden, who has been in power for 0.2 years. USA has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 232 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007023", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9992977, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.856Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "USA", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Biden", + "month_risk": "0.0000602", + "annual_risk": "0.0007023", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "232", + "leader_years": "0.1666667", + "country_code": "USA", + "country_abb": "USA" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic attorney general nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7682/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Rochelle Garza", + "probability": 0.48672566371681414, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Jaworski", + "probability": 0.327433628318584, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lee Merritt", + "probability": 0.09734513274336282, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Fields", + "probability": 0.08849557522123894, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:38.075Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 3321 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rochelle Garza, Joe Jaworski, Lee Merritt, Mike Fields" + }, + { + "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:24.857Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 78, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2226-will-tunisia-hold-a-constitutional-referendum-before-1-august-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "On 13 December 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced that the country would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 25 July 2022, exactly one year after he froze parliament and took over political control of the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/tunisia-is-setting-itself-up-for-an-autocratic-future), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20211213-tunisian-president-calls-referendum-on-constitutional-change-sets-poll-date), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/26/kais-saieds-power-grab-in-tunisia/)). A referendum on either a new constitution or amendments to the existing constitution would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.68, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:01:30.604Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasters": 119, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:33.287Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1334, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that former President Donald Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in either the 2022 Republican primary election or the general election for any seat in the United States House of Representatives. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:44.670Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 168653 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.97, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:38.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 839, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will A Beautiful Noise by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-2", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If A Beautiful Noise by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "yes_bid": 0, + "yes_ask": 1, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 27218 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through May?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7665/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-May", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2022 7:01 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:57.917Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 152181 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Latvia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Latvia is Karins, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Latvia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0029086", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9970914, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Latvia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Sogavare", - "month_risk": "0.0004521", - "annual_risk": "0.0056878", + "leader_name": "Karins", + "month_risk": "0.0002427", + "annual_risk": "0.0029086", "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "43", - "leader_years": "1.916667", - "country_code": "SLB", - "country_abb": "SOL" + "regime_years": "31", + "leader_years": "2.166667", + "country_code": "LVA", + "country_abb": "LAT" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Laos in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "title": "Will there be a coup in China in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Laos is Sisoulith, who has been in power for 0.2 years. Laos has a party regime type which has lasted for 45 years", + "description": "The current leader of China is Xi Jinping, who has been in power for 8.3 years. China has a party regime type which has lasted for 72 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0054128", + "probability": "0.0011269", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9945872, + "probability": 0.9988731, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.850Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { - "country_name": "Laos", + "country_name": "China", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "2", "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Sisoulith", - "month_risk": "0.0021564", - "annual_risk": "0.0054128", - "risk_change_percent": "-0.04", + "leader_name": "Xi Jinping", + "month_risk": "0.0001107", + "annual_risk": "0.0011269", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "72", + "leader_years": "8.333333", + "country_code": "CHN", + "country_abb": "CHN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Honduras in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Honduras is Juan Orlando Hernandez, who has been in power for 7.2 years. Honduras has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 39 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0205839", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9794161, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Honduras", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Juan Orlando Hernandez", + "month_risk": "0.0022181", + "annual_risk": "0.0205839", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.02", + "regime_years": "39", + "leader_years": "7.166667", + "country_code": "HND", + "country_abb": "HON" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8944/boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-june-1-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nAs of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to [reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-joined-no-10-party-during-may-2020-lockdown-say-sources). His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party.\nWill Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:58.586Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 832, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:35.901Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 66, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2119-in-united-states-v-tsarnaev-will-the-supreme-court-reinstate-the-death-sentence-imposed-against-boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/US/jury-reaches-verdict-boston-marathon-bombing-penalty-phase/story?id=31067121)). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-tsarnaev-22), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/us/boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-sentence-vacated/index.html), [American Bar Association](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/committees/death_penalty_representation/project_press/2020/fall-2020/tsarnaev-death-sentence-reversed/)). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-443), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56482800)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:04:29.743Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 174, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:29.616Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 168, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:54.807Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 68, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:09.954Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 304, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOM January 2022", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A259", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2148-in-its-2022-report-will-the-board-of-trustees-for-medicare-project-the-year-of-asset-depletion-of-the-hospital-insurance-trust-fund-hi-aka-medicare-part-a-to-be-2025-or-before", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program ([Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds)). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 ([Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report](https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf), see page 6 in the report).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:49.698Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 24, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Republican", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Democratic", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:21.124Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 256933 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" + }, + { + "title": "How many votes to confirm a SCOTUS nominee by July 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7722/How-many-votes-to-confirm-a-SCOTUS-nominee-by-July-1", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, after January 27, 2022 but before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of a nominee to join the Supreme Court of the United States (the \"Office\"). The first qualifying confirmation vote shall be used to settle this market. A vote to elevate an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice shall not be relevant for purposes of this market.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "48 or fewer", + "probability": 0.12500000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "49 ", + "probability": 0.01785714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50", + "probability": 0.08035714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51", + "probability": 0.08035714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "52", + "probability": 0.14285714285714288, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53", + "probability": 0.16071428571428573, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "54", + "probability": 0.08035714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "55", + "probability": 0.053571428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56", + "probability": 0.053571428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "57 or more", + "probability": 0.20535714285714288, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:24.984Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 158073 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49 , 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Norway in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Norway is Solberg, who has been in power for 7.4 years. Norway has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 136 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007499", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9992501, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Norway", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Solberg", + "month_risk": "0.0000563", + "annual_risk": "0.0007499", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "136", + "leader_years": "7.416667", + "country_code": "NOR", + "country_abb": "NOR" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:53.367Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 78, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:05:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:07.361Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 193, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:44.218Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2181-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2022", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, China is facing new disruptions to its economy ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/17/economy/china-gdp-q3-intl-hnk/index.html), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-economy-third-quarter-gdp-data-grows-4point9percent-missing-expectations.html)). The outcome will be determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as reported by Trading Economics ([Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined when the relevant data for 2Q 2022 are first released, scheduled for July 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 4.0%", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 7.0%", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:02:48.770Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasters": 39, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%" + }, + { + "title": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8009/urbit-devlopment-ongoing-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):\na decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]\nThe aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main).\nWill Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?\n---If there are at least 3 commits in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-01, this question resolves positively. \n---The commit must be made publicly on the codebase. Currently, [this is on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main). If it moves, the official codebase at the new location will be used. \n---If the codebase becomes closed, admins judge whether development can be said to be ongoing, based on activity of the developer team elsewhere (e.g., are they actively promoting the project on [social media](https://twitter.com/urbit)? and [the project blog](https://urbit.org/blog)?). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:52.975Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-02-28T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Spain in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Spain is Sanchez, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Spain has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 45 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0028549", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9971451, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.854Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Spain", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Sanchez", + "month_risk": "0.0002343", + "annual_risk": "0.0028549", + "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "45", - "leader_years": "0.1666667", - "country_code": "LAO", - "country_abb": "LAO" + "leader_years": "2.75", + "country_code": "ESP", + "country_abb": "SPN" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:59.290Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -58122,7 +57646,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:06:30.625Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.709Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 @@ -58130,120 +57654,161 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically., The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident., The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released., The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers." }, { - "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Malta in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Malta is Abela, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Malta has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": "0.0028133", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.9971867, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:51:15.034Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.853Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" - }, "stars": 3 }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Malta", + "regime_type": "Parliamentary", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Abela", + "month_risk": "0.0002347", + "annual_risk": "0.0028133", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "59", + "leader_years": "1.166667", + "country_code": "MLT", + "country_abb": "MLT" + }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:07:17.424Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7576/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-gubernatorial-election", + "title": "Will Donald Trump be indicted by Apr. 1?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7510/Will-Donald-Trump-be-indicted-by-Apr-1", "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party shall be considered synonymous with the Democratic Party. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. For purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { - "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.7169811320754716, + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:00:41.741Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:58.079Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 36609 + "shares_volume": 546766 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Foundation airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-foundation-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Foundation will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.", + "title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9525/singapore-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.303877331808053718543494107249686", + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.696122668191946281456505892750314", + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.332Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:53.336Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "61", - "liquidity": "2100.00", - "tradevolume": "3409.85", + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:31.671Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 349, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)\nWill >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, at least 3 countries have each had at least one offensive nuclear detonation by another country occur on or over a point that is within their territories. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated offensively on or over the territories of each of China, North Korea, and the US, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon between this question opening and the start of 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nDetonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDifferent countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:15.338Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 14, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -58256,524 +57821,205 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:16:09.789Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:53.742Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 1337, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Peaches by Justin Bieber win Song of the Year at the Grammys by February 7? ", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GRAMMY-002-9", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Peaches by Justin Bieber has won Song of the Year at the 64th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GRAMMY in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Grammys posting the winners on their website and February 07, 2022. \n\nImportant clarification for those who have traded in Kalshi's markets on the Grammys as of 1/5/22: news sources reported today that the Grammys ceremony, originally scheduled for January 31, 2022, has been delayed indefinitely. It's important for us to make sure that we adhere to the rules established by our contracts. As noted in the Rulebook, the contracts resolve based on who the winner is as measured at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date. If no winners are announced by the Source Agency (the website of the Grammys) by the latest possible Expiration Date (February 7th, 2022) at the Expiration Time (10:00 AM) then all markets will resolve to No.. The resolution source is: Award winners at the Annual Grammy Awards according to the website of the Grammys. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 0, - "yes_ask": 1, - "spread": 1, - "shares_volume": 32402 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Osmosis suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-osmosis-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Osmosis suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Osmosis is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1264434246852911914524839163051453", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8735565753147088085475160836948547", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.333Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "8", - "liquidity": "2000.00", - "tradevolume": "2962.30", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8141/individual-city-hit-3-times-by-2024/", + "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Some people (e.g., [Rodriguez, 2019a](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FfxrwBdBDCg9YTh69/how-many-people-would-be-killed-as-a-direct-result-of-a-us#The_number_of_deaths_caused_by_nuclear_detonations_in_civilian_targets), [2019b](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_nuclear_detonations)) have argued that: \n--- \nIt's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)\n--- \nIf that happens, it could substantially increase the immediate fatalities and nuclear winter effects from nuclear conflict (since second, third, etc. detonations on cities like New York would have much larger effects than first detonations on much smaller targets)\nThe likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities could also be seen as an imperfect proxy for the expected total scale of a nuclear exchange, since such multiple detonations are probably more likely if large-scale [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting occurs.\nAltogether, a higher likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities would push in favor of (1) working to reduce nuclear risk and (2) doing so by reducing the chance of large-scale conflicts or countervalue targeting.\nWill an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?\nThe question conditions on there being at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a city after this question opens and before 2024. That is, it resolves ambiguously if that condition is not met.\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, for at least one individual city anywhere in the world, 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of that city. For example, it would resolve positively if there are 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations on New York, and/or 3 or more on Moscow, and/or 3 or more on Beijing. \nThe question resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over any city, but there are not 3 or more such detonations on or over any single city, even if there are 3 or more such detonations spread out across multiple cities. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, it does not matter whether a strike was intended to kill civilians or to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a city.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T11:40:54.332Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 50, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will **inflation** rise more than 0.5% in January 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-016", - "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see CPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data, or one week following the scheduled release of the data (the data is scheduled for February 10, 2022). The market will always close on 8:25 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (February 10, 2022). \n. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for January 2022, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.823Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 56, - "yes_ask": 60, - "spread": 4, - "shares_volume": 10226 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:14:44.362Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 52, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:15:21.239Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9510/ea-global-london-2022-rescheduled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2022](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-london-2022/) is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nWill EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if EA Global London 2022 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London, UK) at the scheduled dates (15 - 17 April 2022).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:43:38.351Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 54, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-01T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-18T14:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kanye West release 'Donda 2' (or another new album) by 2/22/22?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-west-release-donda-2-or-another-new-album-by-22222", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "'Donda 2' is the rumored title for Kanye West’s upcoming eleventh studio album, expected to be released on February 22, 2022. This will serve as the official sequel to Kanye’s tenth studio album of the same name, released back in August 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 'Donda 2' or another new album by Kanye West is released and is available via Spotify or Apple Music for streaming after January 28 and before February 22 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve “No.” \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the album must be listed under the albums section of Kanye West's profile, and streamable, on either Apple Music (currently at https://music.apple.com/us/artist/kanye-west/2715720/see-all?section=full-albums) or Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/artist/5K4W6rqBFWDnAN6FQUkS6x/discography/album) streaming platforms.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2820265914543588766172753691629099", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7179734085456411233827246308370901", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:51:28.331Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "86", - "liquidity": "10158.89", - "tradevolume": "7898.85", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win AZ 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A159", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:54:31.847Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 33770 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Armenia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Armenia is Pashinyan, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Armenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0081691", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9918309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.531Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Armenia", - "regime_type": "Parliamentary", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Pashinyan", - "month_risk": "0.0006389", - "annual_risk": "0.0081691", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "3", - "leader_years": "2.833333", - "country_code": "ARM", - "country_abb": "ARM" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Rs win PA 2022 Senate", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A158", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2187-when-will-the-us-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-2-3-million-or-more-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/international-travel-will-get-easier-but-restrictions-will-remain)). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 ([Sorted TSA Data Download](https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Formatted_TSA_Throughput_Data_13_October_2021.xlsx), see both sheets).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Not before 1 October 2022", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:02:26.546Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 417, - "numforecasters": 158, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022, Not before 1 October 2022" - }, - { - "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:11:07.979Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 351, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2147-where-will-dubai-international-airport-dxb-rank-among-the-busiest-airports-in-the-world-by-passenger-number-for-2022-according-to-the-airports-council-international-aci", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers ([ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings](https://aci.aero/news/2021/04/22/aci-world-data-reveals-covid-19s-impact-on-worlds-busiest-airports/)). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 ([ACI](https://aci.aero)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "1st to 3rd", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "4th to 6th", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "7th to 9th", "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "10th or lower", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:03:43.687Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:14.008Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 114, - "numforecasters": 44, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "1st to 3rd, 4th to 6th, 7th to 9th, 10th or lower" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a coup in Jordan in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", - "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", - "platform": "CoupCast", - "description": "The current leader of Jordan is Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi, who has been in power for 22.1 years. Jordan has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 75 years", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.0060049", - "type": "PROBABILITY" + "numforecasts": 19, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z" }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9939951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:00:13.533Z", - "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "extra": { - "country_name": "Jordan", - "regime_type": "Monarchy", - "month": "2", - "year": "2021", - "leader_name": "Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi", - "month_risk": "0.0004805", - "annual_risk": "0.0060049", - "risk_change_percent": "0", - "regime_years": "75", - "leader_years": "22.08333", - "country_code": "JOR", - "country_abb": "JOR" - }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/", + "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive. If there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.\n", + "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:55:08.158Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:10.298Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 322, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2239-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-for-january-through-september-2022-exceed-the-total-for-january-through-september-2021", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/brazils-election-offers-hope-for-the-rainforest), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/deforestation-in-brazils-amazon-rainforest-hits-15-year-high.html), [Global Landscapes Forum](https://news.globallandscapesforum.org/54461/amazon-fires-2021-moderate-risk-forecasted-but-fuel-enough-for-one-of-earths-biggest-bonfires/)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts through 30 September 2022 exceeds the total through 30 September 2021 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). Through 30 September for 2021, the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts totaled 198,341.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:58.710Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasters": 112, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 251.5 million Americans be **vaccinated for COVID-19** by February 9, 2022?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VAXX-050", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If over 251.5 million Americans are reported as vaccinated for COVID-19 by February 9, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see VAXX in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 9, 2022 or February 16, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 43, + "yes_ask": 45, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 5332 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Democratic Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Democratic Republic of the Congo is Felix Tschisekedi, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Democratic Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.016232", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.983768, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Democratic Republic of the Congo", + "regime_type": "Personal", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Felix Tschisekedi", + "month_risk": "0.0006285", + "annual_risk": "0.016232", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "24", + "leader_years": "2.166667", + "country_code": "COD", + "country_abb": "DRC" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Ecuador in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Ecuador is Lenin Moreno, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Ecuador has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0099077", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9900923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Ecuador", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Lenin Moreno", + "month_risk": "0.0006959", + "annual_risk": "0.0099077", + "risk_change_percent": "-0.02", + "regime_years": "42", + "leader_years": "3.833333", + "country_code": "ECU", + "country_abb": "ECU" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9174/phase-iii-trials-on-cancer-vaccines-in-2022/", @@ -58791,7 +58037,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:32:15.584Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:31.692Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -58805,114 +58051,166 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2022?", - "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FEDCONF-001", + "title": "Will **Joe Manchin** leave Senate Democratic leadership by July 5th?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MANCHIN-001", "platform": "Kalshi", - "description": "If Congress.gov indicates that the Senate has confirmed Jerome Powell to be Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and by 10:00 AM on February 28, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FEDCONF in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: The set of nominations that have been confirmed by the Senate according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", + "description": "If the website of Senator Joe Manchin contains a notice by 10:00 AM on July 05, 2022 that Senator Joe Manchin has left or will leave the Senate leadership of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that he has left or will leave the Democratic Party or its caucus is also sufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Announcements that he will leave conditional on political outcomes (such as provisions being included or excluded from an upcoming bill) are not by themselves sufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see MANCHIN in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Notices on the website of U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:06:02.799Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, - "yes_bid": 36, - "yes_ask": 38, - "spread": 2, - "shares_volume": 119468 + "yes_bid": 9, + "yes_ask": 10, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 14056 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Breyer resigns in 2022", - "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A265", - "platform": "Peter Wildeford", - "description": "", + "title": "Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics ](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html)to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.", + "probability": 0.7469908609359496, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.", + "probability": 0.21943257968810703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.", + "probability": 0.03357655937594347, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career." + }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:47.127Z", "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Larry Hogan run in the 2022 Maryland Republican Senate primary?", - "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7714/Will-Larry-Hogan-run-in-the-2022-Maryland-Republican-Senate-primary", - "platform": "PredictIt", - "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Larry Hogan is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Maryland. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Hogan running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T13:05:31.985Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "stars": 3, - "shares_volume": 448 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:30:08.404Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 323, + "numforecasts": 347, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", + "title": "What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair?", + "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734", + "platform": "Rootclaim", + "description": "Donald Trump's hair is a mystery; it has been compared to[ cotton candy](http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/09/politics/jeb-bush-stephen-colbert-late-show-extras/) (by Jeb Bush and Stephen Colbert),[ soft serve ice cream](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trumps-hair-soft-serve-dairy/story?id=33818262) at Dairy Queen (by Hillary Clinton on Saturday Night Live), a[ rare caterpillar](http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-caterpillar-2016-9), and[ other objects](http://www.boredpanda.com/donald-trump-hair-look-alikes/). While[ The Donald](http://www.amazon.com/TrumpNation-The-Art-Being-Donald/dp/1422366189) claims that he has a full head of natural hair, others doubt his story, suggesting that he has an involved comb over covering his baldness, that he wears a toupee, or that he has undergone surgery to reconstruct his hairline.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery.", + "probability": 0.6014630328803353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump has hair plug transplants.", + "probability": 0.311266661641781, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump wears a toupee.", + "probability": 0.05523460705178658, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over).", + "probability": 0.030328877509767715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head.", + "probability": 0.0013827991564558896, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International).", + "probability": 0.00032402175987351645, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1, + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery., Donald Trump has hair plug transplants., Donald Trump wears a toupee., Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over)., Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head., Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International)." + }, + { + "title": "Will 'Jackass Forever' get 80% or higher Tomatometer Score?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jackass-forever-get-80-or-higher-tomatometer-score", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, as checked on the resolution date, the 'Jackass Forever' movie will be given 80% or higher Tomatometer rating at Rotten Tomatoes, and 'No' otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source (Tomatometer All Critics Score rating at Rotten Tomatoes' movie profile: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/jackass_forever) for this market will be checked on the resolution date - February 7 2022 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\n---------------\n\n'Jackass Forever' will be released worldwide on February 4.\n\nRotten Tomatoes' Tomatometer is the percentage of all Approved Tomatometer Critics who have given this movie a positive review.\n\n---------------\n\nIf for any reason the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 12 hours, until the actual data is available.\n\nIf the data is not available on the resolution source by February 14 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.839240261860210921582536066898515", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.160759738139789078417463933101485", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "41", + "liquidity": "500.00", + "tradevolume": "1153.33", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556/majority-female-us-senators-in-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\nBy 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an elected official.\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\nIn the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.\nWill over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -58925,54 +58223,985 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T10:21:57.201Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:01.560Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 82, + "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:42:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n", + "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q4 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q4-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": "0.3536476392288534025116353351934828", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": "0.6463523607711465974883646648065172", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T09:42:38.423Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 165, + "numforecasts": "44", + "liquidity": "3322.60", + "tradevolume": "1580.21", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Ethiopia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Ethiopia is Abiy Ahmed, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Ethiopia has a party regime type which has lasted for 30 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0149944", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9850056, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Ethiopia", + "regime_type": "Party", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Abiy Ahmed", + "month_risk": "0.000649", + "annual_risk": "0.0149944", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "30", + "leader_years": "2.916667", + "country_code": "ETH", + "country_abb": "ETH" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8130/north-korea-possess-material-for-100-warheads/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads (whether or not those warheads have actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from [the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/).\nFor positive resolution, the mid-point of the estimate needs to be at or above 100. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce approximately 100 warheads\" or \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 80-120 warheads\" would count. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 90-100 warheads\" would not count. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:07.862Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8588/the-npt-withdrawal-by-2024/", + "title": "Will there be a coup in Colombia in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Colombia is Ivan Duque, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Colombia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 63 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.004793", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995207, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Colombia", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Ivan Duque", + "month_risk": "0.0003962", + "annual_risk": "0.004793", + "risk_change_percent": "0", + "regime_years": "63", + "leader_years": "2.583333", + "country_code": "COL", + "country_abb": "COL" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nA country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.\nIn 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif).\nBy 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, a country that joined the NPT before November 2021 actively withdraws from the treaty. The question will be resolved based on the data of [United Nations, Office for Disarmament Affairs](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt). \nIf a country that is party to the NPT ceases to exist or is replaced by one or more successor states (as happened with the Soviet Union and Russia, for example) and this results in the country no longer being part of the NPT, that will not be treated as active withdrawal for the purposes of this question, even if the successor state(s) is also not party to the NPT.\nFor the purposes of this question, North Korea will be treated as having already withdrawn, meaning that further actions by North Korea cannot themselves resolve this question positively.\n", + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \nAccording to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and that this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. Through 2020, the hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2022 be the hottest year on record?\nThis question will resolve positively if 2022 is the hottest year on record according to [NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event that there is a statistical tie with a previous year, this question will resolve negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:01.341Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 314, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve positively if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) party recieves the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29) in the [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:13.378Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 442, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:47.889Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 298, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on March 20, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-march-20-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, March 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7547923895500917994357600309243692", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2452076104499082005642399690756308", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "166", + "liquidity": "879.12", + "tradevolume": "2266.26", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Larry Hogan run in the 2022 Maryland Republican Senate primary?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7714/Will-Larry-Hogan-run-in-the-2022-Maryland-Republican-Senate-primary", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Larry Hogan is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Maryland. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Hogan running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:02.133Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 663 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q2 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q2-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1526673600019980432970698548807166", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8473326399980019567029301451192834", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "34", + "liquidity": "1884.40", + "tradevolume": "1129.10", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer?", + "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170273835", + "platform": "Betfair", + "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Keir Starmer, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by The Labour Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Andy Burnham", + "probability": 0.20018307536269464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Angela Rayner", + "probability": 0.10104479042116966, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sadiq Khan", + "probability": 0.029471397206174487, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lisa Nandy", + "probability": 0.07578359281587725, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Yvette Cooper", + "probability": 0.07317036547739873, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", + "probability": 0.02652425748555704, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Louise Haigh", + "probability": 0.007578359281587725, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jess Phillips", + "probability": 0.02792027103742846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Clive Lewis", + "probability": 0.002357711776493959, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Carden", + "probability": 0.01515671856317545, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lucy Powell", + "probability": 0.008161309995556013, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ian Lavery", + "probability": 0.0014337436478679482, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Anneliese Dodds", + "probability": 0.007073135329481878, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Lammy", + "probability": 0.01326212874277852, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Richard Burgon", + "probability": 0.0055840542074856924, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rachel Reeves", + "probability": 0.11788558882469795, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bridget Phillipson", + "probability": 0.0331553218569463, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Laura Pidcock", + "probability": 0.005894279441234898, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emily Thornberry", + "probability": 0.0037891796407938626, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Miliband", + "probability": 0.009645184540202559, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Trickett", + "probability": 0.0055840542074856924, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim McMahon", + "probability": 0.0048225922701012796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Zarah Sultana", + "probability": 0.016322619991112026, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jonathan Reynolds", + "probability": 0.006241001761307538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jonathan Ashworth", + "probability": 0.025261197605292416, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", + "probability": 0.0040806549977780065, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stella Creasy", + "probability": 0.007073135329481878, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wes Streeting", + "probability": 0.09225828690628535, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liz Kendall", + "probability": 0.00663106437138926, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hilary Benn", + "probability": 0.006241001761307538, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Matthew Pennycook", + "probability": 0.005304851497111408, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Stephen Kinnock", + "probability": 0.011788558882469796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chi Onwurah", + "probability": 0.0037891796407938626, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Barry Gardiner", + "probability": 0.004243881197689126, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Jarvis", + "probability": 0.01515671856317545, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Angela Eagle", + "probability": 0.0011788558882469796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kate Osamor", + "probability": 0.0037891796407938626, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cat Smith", + "probability": 0.0012482003522615076, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nia Griffith", + "probability": 0.0011788558882469796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Seema Malhotra", + "probability": 0.003536567664740939, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", + "probability": 0.002121940598844563, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", + "probability": 0.007073135329481878, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.260Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 4, + "volume": 35345.15 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, Sadiq Khan, Lisa Nandy, Yvette Cooper, Rosena Allin-Khan, Louise Haigh, Jess Phillips, Clive Lewis, Dan Carden, Lucy Powell, Ian Lavery, Anneliese Dodds, David Lammy, Richard Burgon, Rachel Reeves, Bridget Phillipson, Laura Pidcock, Emily Thornberry, David Miliband, Jon Trickett, Jim McMahon, Zarah Sultana, Jonathan Reynolds, Jonathan Ashworth, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Stella Creasy, Wes Streeting, Liz Kendall, Hilary Benn, Matthew Pennycook, Stephen Kinnock, Chi Onwurah, Barry Gardiner, Dan Jarvis, Angela Eagle, Kate Osamor, Cat Smith, Nia Griffith, Seema Malhotra, Jeremy Corbyn, Nick Thomas-Symonds" + }, + { + "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:15.182Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 216, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by October 1, 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-october-1-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time October 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2062476424466689777443545362753297", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7937523575533310222556454637246703", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "28", + "liquidity": "1585.23", + "tradevolume": "1177.69", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Ron Desantis", + "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A181", + "platform": "Peter Wildeford", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8138/2500-nuclear-weapons-ready-at-short-notice/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice would probably increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict occurring in the first place. Finally, changes in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.\nWill more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 2,500. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This excludes weapons that are (a) deployed but not on high alert, (b) in reserve/nondeployed, or (c) retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:39.283Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $6.5 billion in volume in January 2022?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-6p5-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $6,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $6.5b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.001944922489033222317140763833583795", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9980550775109667776828592361664162", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "183", + "liquidity": "698.55", + "tradevolume": "25374.29", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a coup in Haiti in the next year (as of 2/2021)?", + "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", + "platform": "CoupCast", + "description": "The current leader of Haiti is Jovenel Moise, who has been in power for 4.1 years. Haiti has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 4 years", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.013882", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.986118, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:00:17.852Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "extra": { + "country_name": "Haiti", + "regime_type": "Presidential", + "month": "2", + "year": "2021", + "leader_name": "Jovenel Moise", + "month_risk": "0.0007789", + "annual_risk": "0.013882", + "risk_change_percent": "0.01", + "regime_years": "4", + "leader_years": "4.083333", + "country_code": "HTI", + "country_abb": "HAI" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 1 month of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 million fatalities were caused by that conflict. \nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nIf the nuclear conflict clearly causes more than 1 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on anything, this question will also resolve positively. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, because forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:53.819Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 17, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", + "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2174-between-29-october-2021-and-30-june-2022-how-many-members-will-announce-their-withdrawal-from-the-cooperation-between-china-and-central-and-eastern-european-countries-china-ceec-initiative", + "platform": "Good Judgment Open", + "description": "In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" ([Taipei Times](https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571), [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html)). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "0", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "1 or 2", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "3 or 4", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5 or more", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:03:03.505Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasters": 35, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or more" + }, + { + "title": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8728/additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-fda/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On 19 November 2021, FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute second doses for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and they constitute third doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n[Some](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/covid-seasonal-winter/620766/) have suggested that COVID-19 is now transitioning to a seasonal endemic state and that this might [necessitate seasonal yearly boosters](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297981279617027).\nWill additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?\nThis will resolve positively if FDA authorizes additional booster doses for the entire U.S. adult population — this would mean a third dose for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and fourth doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:02.377Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 57, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_%28spacecraft%29) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:13.269Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 264, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:16.803Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 582, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the U.S. average less than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by April?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-019", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 100,000 for a single day between Issuance and April 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for April 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on April 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 79, + "yes_ask": 80, + "spread": 1, + "shares_volume": 2190 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:15.094Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 108, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8729/alphabet-wins-casp15-for-protein-folding/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction](https://predictioncenter.org/), or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.\nAlphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called [Isomorphic Labs](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/blog) to focus on the drug discovery process.\nCASP15 is [currently scheduled](https://predictioncenter.org/casp15/index.cgi) to take place April-August 2022.\nWill an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if an algorithm developed by a subsidiary of Alphabet (such as DeepMind or Isomorphic Labs) wins the CASP15 group rankings for Regular Targets, or whichever name is given to the general/overall category. The preferred source will be the [official CASP website](https://predictioncenter.org/). If there is no comparable \"general category\" compared to CASP14 and prior, or if there is no singular winner, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve negatively if the competition is held but no Alphabet company competes, or they don't win. If CASP15 is not held in 2022, or overall rankings are not decided, this resolves as ambiguous. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the contest begins.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.76, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:07.563Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 77, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more people ride the **subway in New York City** on average this week than last week?", + "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MTA-031", + "platform": "Kalshi", + "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,233,730 for the week ending February 06 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see MTA in the Rulebook for details.\n\nThe Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for February 06, 2022, or February 13, 2022. The Last Trading Time will always be 11:59 PM ET on February 06, 2022.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (undefined)", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:06.726Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "yes_bid": 87, + "yes_ask": 89, + "spread": 2, + "shares_volume": 2156 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8537/china-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that China has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the President of the People's Republic of China; the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; head of one of the Chinese military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Chinese diplomacy official such as the Chinese Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -58985,11 +59214,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2022-02-03T12:02:08.510Z", + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:22.656Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" @@ -58997,5 +59226,79 @@ "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7534/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2022", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Los Angeles, California in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Karen Bass", + "probability": 0.5982142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kevin de León", + "probability": 0.33928571428571425, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Joe Buscaino", + "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Feuer", + "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wendy Greuel", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Paul Krekorian", + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:23.507Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3, + "shares_volume": 13405 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Karen Bass, Kevin de León, Joe Buscaino, Mike Feuer, Wendy Greuel, Paul Krekorian" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:11.884Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 538, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/specification.json b/specification.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3a36cb1 --- /dev/null +++ b/specification.json @@ -0,0 +1,46 @@ +{ + "title": " String, not optional", + "url": " String. A very few number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction.", + "platform": " String, not optional", + "description": " String, optional", + "options": " Optional. Saved as a string. If this is a binary question, it gets converted to having Yes/No options. The probabilities should be probabilities, i.e., normalized to 1 first.", + "options": [ + "description: optional. Some prediction platforms have distributions, rather than probabilities.", + { + "name": "Option 1", + "probability": "Number, 0 to 1", + "type": "for now just 'PROBABILITY', but could include others, like 'DISTRIBUTION'", + }, + { + "name": "Option 2", + "probability": "Number, 0 to 1", + "type": "for now just 'PROBABILITY', but could include others, like 'DISTRIBUTION'", + } + ], + "timestamp": " Timestamp at which metaforecast fetches the probability", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": "required, 0 to 5", + "numforecasts": " optional", + "numforecasters": " optional", + "liquidity": "optional", + "tradevolume": "optional", + "volume": "optional", + "address": "optional", + "other properties": "optional", + }, + "extra": { + "field_description": "arbitrary extra information", + "country_name": " country.country_name", + "regime_type": " country.regime_type", + "month": " country.month", + "year": " country.year", + "leader_name": " country.leader_name", + "month_risk": " country.month_risk", + "annual_risk": " country.annual_risk", + "risk_change_percent": " country.risk_change_percent", + "regime_years": " country.regime_years", + "leader_years": " country.leader_years", + "country_code": " country.country_code", + "country_abb": " country.country_abb", + "superforecastercommentary": " analysis || "", +} diff --git a/src/index.js b/src/index.js index 2af3853..58afff4 100644 --- a/src/index.js +++ b/src/index.js @@ -2,28 +2,7 @@ import fs from 'fs' import readline from "readline" -import { astralcodexten } from "./platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js" -import { betfair } from "./platforms/betfair-fetch.js" -import { coupcast } from "./platforms/coupcast-fetch.js" -import { csetforetell } from "./platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js" -import { elicit } from "./platforms/elicit-fetch.js" -import { estimize } from "./platforms/estimize-fetch.js" -import { fantasyscotus } from "./platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js" -import { foretold } from "./platforms/foretold-fetch.js" -import { goodjudgment } from "./platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js" -import { goodjudgmentopen } from "./platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js" -import { hypermind } from "./platforms/hypermind-fetch.js" -import { kalshi } from "./platforms/kalshi-fetch.js" -import { ladbrokes } from "./platforms/ladbrokes-fetch.js" -import { manifoldmarkets } from "./platforms/manifoldmarkets-fetch.js" -import { metaculus } from "./platforms/metaculus-fetch.js" -import { omen } from "./platforms/omen-fetch.js" -import { polymarket } from "./platforms/polymarket-fetch.js" -import { predictit } from "./platforms/predictit-fetch.js" -import { rootclaim } from "./platforms/rootclaim-fetch.js" -import { smarkets } from "./platforms/smarkets-fetch.js" -import { wildeford } from "./platforms/wildeford-fetch.js" -import { williamhill } from "./platforms/williamhill-fetch.js" +import { platformFetchers } from "./utils/platforms.js" import { mergeEverything } from "./utils/mergeEverything.js" import { updateHistory } from "./utils/history/updateHistory.js" import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "./utils/algolia.js" @@ -31,11 +10,11 @@ import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./utils/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNe import { doEverything, tryCatchTryAgain } from "./utils/doEverything.js" /* Support functions */ -let functions = [astralcodexten, betfair, coupcast, csetforetell, elicit, /* estimize, */ fantasyscotus, foretold, goodjudgment, goodjudgmentopen, hypermind, kalshi, ladbrokes, manifoldmarkets, metaculus, omen, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, wildeford, williamhill, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildAlgoliaDatabase, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData, doEverything] +let functions = [...platformFetchers, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildAlgoliaDatabase, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData, doEverything] let functionNames = functions.map(fun => fun.name) let whattodoMessage = functionNames - .slice(0, functionNames.length - 5) + .slice(0, platformFetchers.length) .map((functionName, i) => `[${i}]: Download predictions from ${functionName}`) .join('\n') + `\n[${functionNames.length - 5}]: Merge jsons them into one big json (and push it to mongodb database)` + diff --git a/src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/astralcodexten-fetch.js similarity index 100% rename from src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/astralcodexten-fetch.js diff --git a/src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/coupcast-fetch.js similarity index 99% rename from src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/coupcast-fetch.js index 5025207..8cdf5a2 100644 --- a/src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js +++ b/src/platforms/deprecated/coupcast-fetch.js @@ -9,9 +9,9 @@ import {upsert} from "../utils/mongo-wrapper.js" /* Definitions */ let coupCastEndpoint = "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/sites/all/themes/stability/stability_sub/data/dashboard_2021_code_06.csv" -var datenow = new Date(); +var datenow = new Date(); var currentmonth = datenow.getMonth() + 1; - +dd /* Support functions */ let unique = arr => [...new Set(arr)] let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms)); diff --git a/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/csetforetell-fetch.js similarity index 100% rename from src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/csetforetell-fetch.js diff --git a/src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/elicit-fetch.js similarity index 100% rename from src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/elicit-fetch.js diff --git a/src/platforms/estimize-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/estimize-fetch.js similarity index 100% rename from src/platforms/estimize-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/estimize-fetch.js diff --git a/src/platforms/hypermind-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/hypermind-fetch.js similarity index 100% rename from src/platforms/hypermind-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/hypermind-fetch.js diff --git a/src/platforms/omen-fetch.js b/src/platforms/deprecated/omen-fetch.js similarity index 90% rename from src/platforms/omen-fetch.js rename to src/platforms/deprecated/omen-fetch.js index e80ec4e..b4548e4 100644 --- a/src/platforms/omen-fetch.js +++ b/src/platforms/deprecated/omen-fetch.js @@ -5,7 +5,9 @@ import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js" import {upsert} from "../utils/mongo-wrapper.js" /* Definitions */ -let graphQLendpoint = 'https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen' +let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen" +// "https://gateway.thegraph.com/api/[api-key]/subgraphs/id/0x0503024fcc5e1bd834530e69d592dbb6e8c03968-0" +// 'https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen' // https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph // https://thegraph.com/explorer/subgraph/protofire/omen @@ -40,7 +42,7 @@ async function fetchAllContractData() { }) .then(res => res.data) .then(res => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers) - // console.log(response) + console.log(response) return response } diff --git a/src/platforms/infer-fetch.js b/src/platforms/infer-fetch.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0981b69 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/platforms/infer-fetch.js @@ -0,0 +1,254 @@ +/* Imports */ +import axios from "axios" +import { getCookie, applyIfCookieExists } from "../utils/getCookies.js" +import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson" +import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js" +import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js" +import { upsert } from "../utils/mongo-wrapper.js" + +/* Definitions */ +let htmlEndPoint = 'https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions?page=' +String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) { return this.split(search).join(replace); } +const DEBUG_MODE = "on"// "off" +const SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM=100//5000 // miliseconds +const SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA=0//1000 +/* Support functions */ + +async function fetchPage(page, cookie) { + console.log(`Page #${page}`) + if (page == 1) { + cookie = cookie.split(";")[0] // Interesting that it otherwise doesn't work :( + } + let urlEndpoint = htmlEndPoint + page + console.log(urlEndpoint) + let response = await axios({ + url: urlEndpoint, + method: 'GET', + headers: ({ + 'Content-Type': 'text/html', + 'Cookie': cookie + }), + }) + .then(res => res.data) + // console.log(response) + return response +} + +async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) { + let response = await axios({ + url: questionUrl + "/stats", + method: 'GET', + headers: ({ + 'Content-Type': 'text/html', + 'Cookie': cookie, + 'Referer': questionUrl, + }), + }) + .then(res => res.data) + + if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) { + throw Error("Not logged in") + } + + // Is binary? + let isbinary = response.includes("binary?":true") + // console.log(`is binary? ${isbinary}`) + let options = [] + if (isbinary) { + // Crowd percentage + let htmlElements = response.split("\n") + // DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach(line => console.log(line)) : id() + let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("

    "))[0] + // DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? console.log(h5elements) : id() + let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0] + let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100 + options.push(({ + name: "Yes", + probability: probability, + type: "PROBABILITY" + }), ({ + name: "No", + probability: +(1 - probability).toFixed(2), // avoids floating point shenanigans + type: "PROBABILITY" + })) + } else { + try { + let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[1] // Previously [1], then previously [3] but they added a new table. + // console.log(optionsBody) + let optionsHtmlElement = "" + let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement) + let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0] + options = firstTable.map(element => ({ + name: element['0'], + probability: Number(element['1'].replace("%", "")) / 100, + type: "PROBABILITY" + })) + } catch (error) { + let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[3] // Catch if the error is related to table position + let optionsHtmlElement = "" + let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement) + let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0] + if (firstTable) { + options = firstTable.map(element => ({ + name: element['0'], + probability: Number(element['1'].replace("%", "")) / 100, + type: "PROBABILITY" + })) + } else { + // New type of question, tricky to parse the options + // Just leave options = [] for now. + // https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats + } + } + + } + // Description + let descriptionraw = response.split(``)[0] + let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replace(">", "") + let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", ``) + // console.log(descriptionprocessed3) + let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replaceAll("\r\n\r\n", "\n") + let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n") + let descriptionprocessed6 = descriptionprocessed5.replaceAll(""", `"`) + let descriptionprocessed7 = descriptionprocessed6.replaceAll("'", "'") + let descriptionprocessed8 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed7) + let description = descriptionprocessed8 + + // Number of forecasts + //console.log(response) + //console.log(response.split("prediction_sets_count":")[1]) + let numforecasts = response.split("prediction_sets_count":")[1].split(",")[0] + // console.log(numforecasts) + + // Number of predictors + let numforecasters = response.split("predictors_count":")[1].split(",")[0] + // console.log(numpredictors) + + let result = { + "description": description, + "options": options, + "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(), + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": Number(numforecasts), + "numforecasters": Number(numforecasters), + "stars": calculateStars("CSET-foretell", { numforecasts }) + } + } + + return result +} + +function isSignedIn(html) { + + let isSignedInBool = !(html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") || html.includes("Sign up")) + if (!isSignedInBool) { + console.log("Error: Not signed in.") + } + console.log(`Signed in? ${isSignedInBool}`) + return isSignedInBool +} + +function isEnd(html) { + let isEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter") + if (isEndBool) { + //console.log(html) + } + console.log(`IsEnd? ${isEndBool}`) + return isEndBool +} + +function sleep(ms) { + return new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms)); +} + +/* Body */ + +async function csetforetell_inner(cookie) { + let i = 1 + let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie) + let results = [] + let init = Date.now() + // console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.") + while (!isEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) { + + let htmlLines = response.split("\n") + // let h4elements = htmlLines.filter(str => str.includes("
    ') + let url = elementSplit[0].split('', "").replace("", "") + await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA) // don't be as noticeable + + try { + let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie) + let question = ({ + "title": title, + "url": url, + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + ...moreinfo + }) + if (i % 30 == 0 && !(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on")) { + console.log(`Page #${i}` && !(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on")) + console.log(question) + } + results.push(question) + if (process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on") { + console.log(url) + console.log(question) + } + + } catch (error) { + console.log(error) + console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`) + } + } + + i++ + //i=Number(i)+1 + + console.log("Sleeping for ~5secs so as to not be as noticeable to the cset-foretell servers") + await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA) // don't be as noticeable + + try { + response = await fetchPage(i, cookie) + } catch (error) { + console.log(error) + console.log(`The program encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json. It is possible that this page wasn't actually a prediction question pages`) + } + } + // let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2) + // fs.writeFileSync('./data/csetforetell-questions.json', string); + // console.log(results) + if (results.length > 0) { + await upsert(results, "csetforetell-questions") + } else { + console.log("Not updating results, as process was not signed in") + } + + let end = Date.now() + let difference = end - init + console.log(`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`) +} + + +export async function infer() { + let cookie = process.env.CSETFORETELL_COOKIE || getCookie("csetforetell") + await applyIfCookieExists(cookie, csetforetell_inner) +} diff --git a/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js b/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js index a7ba28a..570a38b 100644 --- a/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js +++ b/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ async function processMarkets(markets) { } ] let result = ({ - "title": market.title, + "title": market.title.replaceAll("*", ""), "url": `https://kalshi.com/markets/${market.ticker_name}`, "platform": "Kalshi", "description": `${market.settle_details}. The resolution source is: ${market.ranged_group_name} (${market.settle_source_url})`, diff --git a/src/utils/doEverything.js b/src/utils/doEverything.js index 6b7171d..ec9a272 100644 --- a/src/utils/doEverything.js +++ b/src/utils/doEverything.js @@ -1,29 +1,9 @@ -import { astralcodexten } from "../platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js" -import { betfair } from "../platforms/betfair-fetch.js" -import { coupcast } from "../platforms/coupcast-fetch.js" -import { csetforetell } from "../platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js" -import { elicit } from "../platforms/elicit-fetch.js" -import { estimize } from "../platforms/estimize-fetch.js" -import { fantasyscotus } from "../platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js" -import { foretold } from "../platforms/foretold-fetch.js" -import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js" -import { goodjudgmentopen } from "../platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js" -import { hypermind } from "../platforms/hypermind-fetch.js" -import { kalshi } from "../platforms/kalshi-fetch.js" -import { ladbrokes } from "../platforms/ladbrokes-fetch.js" -import { manifoldmarkets } from "../platforms/manifoldmarkets-fetch.js" -import { metaculus } from "../platforms/metaculus-fetch.js" -import { omen } from "../platforms/omen-fetch.js" -import { polymarket } from "../platforms/polymarket-fetch.js" -import { predictit } from "../platforms/predictit-fetch.js" -import { rootclaim } from "../platforms/rootclaim-fetch.js" -import { smarkets } from "../platforms/smarkets-fetch.js" -import { wildeford } from "../platforms/wildeford-fetch.js" -import { williamhill } from "../platforms/williamhill-fetch.js" + import { mergeEverything } from "./mergeEverything.js" import { updateHistory } from "./history/updateHistory.js" import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "./algolia.js" import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js" +import { platformFetchers } from "./platforms.js" /* Do everything */ function sleep(ms) { @@ -47,7 +27,7 @@ export async function tryCatchTryAgain(fun) { } export async function doEverything() { - let functions = [betfair, coupcast, csetforetell, elicit, /* estimize, */ fantasyscotus, foretold, /* goodjudgment, */ goodjudgmentopen, hypermind, ladbrokes, kalshi, manifoldmarkets, metaculus, omen, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, wildeford, williamhill, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildAlgoliaDatabase, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData] + let functions = [...platformFetchers, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildAlgoliaDatabase, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData] // Removed Good Judgment from the fetcher, doing it using cron instead because cloudflare blocks the utility on heroku. console.log("") diff --git a/src/utils/mergeEverything.js b/src/utils/mergeEverything.js index c9b9368..a45e913 100644 --- a/src/utils/mergeEverything.js +++ b/src/utils/mergeEverything.js @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ import { mongoRead, upsert } from "./mongo-wrapper.js"; - +import { platformNames } from "./platforms.js" /* Merge everything */ // let sets = ["astralcodexten", "betfair", "coupcast", "csetforetell", "elicit", /* "estimize" ,*/ "fantasyscotus", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "kalshi", "ladbrokes", "manifoldmarkets", "metaculus", "omen", "polymarket", "predictit", "rootclaim", "smarkets", "wildeford", "williamhill", "xrisk"] let sets = [ diff --git a/src/utils/platforms.js b/src/utils/platforms.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5f3fee0 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/utils/platforms.js @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +import { betfair } from "../platforms/betfair-fetch.js" +import { fantasyscotus } from "../platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js" +import { foretold } from "../platforms/foretold-fetch.js" +import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js" +import { goodjudgmentopen } from "../platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js" +import { infer } from "../platforms/infer-fetch.js" +import { kalshi } from "../platforms/kalshi-fetch.js" +import { ladbrokes } from "../platforms/ladbrokes-fetch.js" +import { manifoldmarkets } from "../platforms/manifoldmarkets-fetch.js" +import { metaculus } from "../platforms/metaculus-fetch.js" +import { polymarket } from "../platforms/polymarket-fetch.js" +import { predictit } from "../platforms/predictit-fetch.js" +import { rootclaim } from "../platforms/rootclaim-fetch.js" +import { smarkets } from "../platforms/smarkets-fetch.js" +import { wildeford } from "../platforms/wildeford-fetch.js" +import { williamhill } from "../platforms/williamhill-fetch.js" + +/* Deprecated +import { astralcodexten } from "../platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js" +import { csetforetell } from "../platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js" +import { elicit } from "../platforms/elicit-fetch.js" +import { estimize } from "../platforms/estimize-fetch.js" +import { hypermind } from "../platforms/hypermind-fetch.js" +import { coupcast } from "../platforms/coupcast-fetch.js" +*/ + +export const platformFetchers = [betfair, fantasyscotus, foretold, goodjudgment, goodjudgmentopen, infer, ladbrokes, kalshi, manifoldmarkets, metaculus, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, wildeford, williamhill] +export const platformNames = [ + "betfair", + "fantasyscotus", + "foretold", + "givewellopenphil", + "goodjudgment", + "goodjudmentopen", + "kalshi", + "ladbrokes", + "manifoldmarkets", + "metaculus", + "polymarket", + "predictit", + "rootclaim", + "smarkets", + "wildeford", + "williamhill", + "xrisk", +]; +// deprecated: "astralcodexten", "csetforetell", "coupcast", "elicit", "estimize", "hypermind", "omen", etc \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/utils/stars.js b/src/utils/stars.js index 91534c8..86304be 100644 --- a/src/utils/stars.js +++ b/src/utils/stars.js @@ -166,13 +166,15 @@ function calculateStarsLadbrokes(data) { function calculateStarsManifoldMarkets(data) { let nuno = (data) => - data.volume7Days > 500 || (data.pool > 500 && data.volume7Days > 200) + data.volume7Days > 250 || (data.pool > 500 && data.volume7Days > 100) ? 2 : 1; let eli = (data) => null; let misha = (data) => null; let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)]) let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); + // console.log(data); + // console.log(starsInteger); return starsInteger; }